Poll Position: If Obamacare mandate falls, what goes with it?
During three days of oral arguments about Obamacare at the Supreme Court this week, legal analysts were at pains to predict which way each justice was leaning based on his or her line of questioning. For all but the most experienced court watchers, this seems like an exercise in futility: Justices may be just as likely to question an attorney’s point in the hopes of eliciting a stronger case for it as they are to seek to poke holes in it. I’ll just stick to the prediction I, like many others, made when the first legal challenges were filed: This case will come down to Justice Anthony Kennedy, the court’s most frequent swing vote, in what most likely will be a 5-4 decision.
If the mandate is struck down, how much of the rest of Obamacare should go with it?
- All of it (232 Votes)
- Nothing else (109 Votes)
- Only those parts the administration argued for (e.g., community rating and pre-existing conditions) (28 Votes)
Total Voters: 369
Loading ...Much of the analysis during Wednesday’s arguments focused on the justices’ debate about “severability”: how much of the law ought to survive if the individual mandate is struck down. The 11th Circuit here in Atlanta decided to strike down only the mandate and keep all else intact. Attorneys for the states challenging the law argued none of the law can stand if the mandate falls, because it was the central component of the law: The other provisions don’t work without he mandate, and Congress wouldn’t have passed the law without it. The government’s attorneys argued that only a couple of other provisions — chiefly, the ones covering pre-existing conditions and “community rating,” which holds that insurers can’t charge different premiums based on certain behaviors — should fall in that case because they would severely distort the insurance market absent the mandate, while the rest should stand. (Neither side took the 11th Circuit’s position, so the Supreme Court had to assign another attorney to argue that position.)
Some analysts seemed to think the line of questioning itself, predicated on the dismissal of the mandate, indicated the mandate was in trouble. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case: The only way to argue about severability is to assume the mandate is struck down. If it’s not, the point is moot, but the justices had to hear arguments about what to do in the event they do strike it down.
An interesting argument centered on the idea of judicial restraint: Does it indicate more restraint to leave as much of the law intact as possible, as the liberal justices argued? Or would the court display more restraint to strike it down in total — thereby avoiding potentially changing Congress’ intent — and let Congress start over with a blank canvas, as the conservative justices argued?
That’s a philosophical point, and there are practical considerations here as well. Would Obamacare minus only the mandate be workable? Even if community rating and pre-existing conditions provisions also fall, would other elements of the law such as the exchanges and the Medicaid expansion still make sense? Is Congress more likely to act if it has to try to fix a broken law, or if it gets to start over?
So, here’s this week’s Poll Position: If the mandate is struck down, how much of the rest of Obamacare should the justices throw out with it? Note that I am not asking you to predict what the court will do, but rather what you think should be done.
See the choices and vote in the nearby poll and explain your thoughts in the comments thread.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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171 comments Add your comment
Kyle Wingfield
March 30th, 2012
11:15 am
Jefferson: Do you really believe “lucky” and “unlucky” are the only ways people go through life?
Dusty
March 30th, 2012
11:16 am
Dear Retired Early;,
Yes, I do think Georgia could manage healthcare just as well as paid beaurocrats in Washington DC. Do not underestimate those of us in Georgia. We may play “fiddedeedee” with playtoy laws (like many just passed) but when it comes to big important thngs we know when to get serious. Why do you think we have one of the best burn and emergency hospitals in the country, i.e. Grady?
Get serious. Did you retire to Florida because of no state taxes and then found out that everything there was taxed by the state? There’s no free ride. Do you think federally operated ObamaCare is going to be cheaper for all states? Do you think money grows on trees? Do you think Obamacare is going to make all things even and there will be no “haves & havenots”?
Once again, I declare on the side of independence. We cannot call ourselves free while demanding to be fed, housed, employed, and healed by big government. Take your pick. Free or “fondled” by government? That becomes more and more the question.
States will learn to economize for practical healthcare. Lift the Federal Santa Claus off their backs and they will learn how to manage while being run by their citizens.
Veteran of a Thousand Psychic Wars
March 30th, 2012
11:18 am
Enter your comments here
Refugee from Dikkksie (Thank God We Escaped)
March 30th, 2012
11:18 am
The big news is that Dikkksie is of no importance in the presidential election now, but no one seems to realize this. The South has gone for the “Lost Cause” (Gingrich/Santorum) so the serious contenders (Romney/Obama)can completely ignore Dikkksie in this campaign. Romney has Dikkksie in the bag, unless he turns black. It would be funny if both now endorsed same-sex marriage. What Dikkksie gonna do, stay home and not vote?
Veteran of a Thousand Psychic Wars
March 30th, 2012
11:19 am
Too many people, too few hula hoops.
I’m just sayin
Tea Party Meber
March 30th, 2012
11:20 am
The guy was bad mouthin God and America. I will stand up and dfende my god and Country.
MarkV
March 30th, 2012
11:20 am
There are countries with well-functioning “Medicare for all ” systems, and there are countries with well-functioning forms of Obamacare. Hardly any developed country has such a mess of health care insurance as the US. But to those, like Oblama, who respond to a anybody, who points out to anything better elsewhere by suggesting that that person should move there or be sent there: This is not only YOUR country, buddy. Get used to the fact that people who want to improve things here have just as many rights as you do.
Ayn Rant
March 30th, 2012
11:23 am
The rest of it doesn’t work if the insurance pool doesn’t include most Americans, including the healthy and the poor.
Let’s go back to the unregulated, dysfunctional, free-for-all health care racket where the insurance companies and the lawyers fleece the patients and the medical providers. Eventually, people will have been deprived and ripped off enough to demand an affordable, effective health care system like the British have had since 1947.
Dirty Dawg
March 30th, 2012
11:26 am
To me what it will mean is that TSCOTUS has, unequivocally, been politicized – of course most of us knew it in 2000 with Bush v Gore, and again with Citizens United (sic) – and the only thing left to us, short of a Pelican Brief solution, is a Constitutional Amendment that would provide ways to remove Justices from the bench, establish term limits, or indeed anything that would allow us to remedy this ‘failing’ institution.
Chip
March 30th, 2012
11:30 am
Toss the whole stinking control-freak mess, since it was never about anyone’s health anyway. Then barf-gas the protestors in the streets and let them think about their greedy selfishness while they dry-heave for hours.
Hey liberals: the big bad world doesn’t owe you anything, and it isn’t “your” healthcare if everyone else pays for it.
MarkV
March 30th, 2012
11:35 am
The idea that the health insurance needs are different in different states is a fantasy. It is as “valid” as Romney’s claim that the individual mandate is great for Massachusetts and people like it there, but would be a disaster for the US. If health needs for Idaho and Montana are different than for New York and Michigan, then surely they are different for Atlanta than for South Georgia. Should we have different health insurance system for each of them?
Linda
March 30th, 2012
11:37 am
Richard@11:03, The Declaration of Independence promises us only 3 unalienable rights: life, liberty & the pursuit of happiness. What is it that you do not understand about a child’s right to life?
Several other states have similar “fetal pain bills.” GA’s bill designates 5 months.
Obama is SO pro-abortion that he voted several times in the Ill. Senate against bills to seek medical attention for children who are born alive after a botched abortion.
When do you think it becomes cruel to abort a baby? 6 months? 7 months? 8 months? 8 months & 30 days?
retired early
March 30th, 2012
11:39 am
Kyle
I am guilty of gross over generalization with regard to “most Europeans”. I was trying to point out some of the major difference between American and European’s ideals regarding Healthcare and Education.
These differences show a contrast between people who believe health care and education is a “Right” versus The many Americans who think it is not.
What caught my attention recently, was a recent survey noting that “many” recent college graduates from “many” European countries have decided to remain in Euorpe, instead of migrating to the US, as they have in the past.
The same report noted the problems with unions, which shuts out younger workers in favor of older ones, but isn’t that true in America as well.
Bottom line…..Both countries have their good and bad points, but Americans need to quit thinking socialism is “all bad.”
We can learn from them…and they can learn from us as well.
Thulsa Doom
March 30th, 2012
11:40 am
I look at Obamacare as a sellout to the insurance industry. A couple of months ago I attended a 2 day seminar held by some consultants on future health care under ACA and how to adjust for it. The trend we are seeing and which would continue under ACA is that many small employers would simply have to give up paying for group insurance for their employees- it would be too expensive. So a whole new niche for individual sales with added filler policies with much higer margins for insurance companies and agents is developing due to the loss of employer coverage.
This is going to be very profitable for the insurance industry because with ever rising costs the trend is towards higher and higher major hospitalization deductibles and higher margin filler policies such as Accident policies, indemnity policies, critical illness policies, etc. The higher and higher deductibles mean that people will be paying more and more out of pocket.
The best read I’ve seen so far is the Kaiser family foundation study on ACA. I would encourage anybody who hasn’t read it to read it.
Rafe Hollister
March 30th, 2012
11:41 am
It needs to all be thrown out and the writing on a new bill given to a committee. Hearings and testimony from all stake holders, patients, providers, insurers, government, doctors, etc should heard. Have the committee draw up a bill and try to get enough votes to pass it out of committee. Kinda like it is supposed to be done. A long laborious task that will produce something of value.
What Obamacare was a hurriedly thrown together mish/mash of Democrat solutions, winnowed by Democrats, for Democrats, and passed with no thoughts of compromise with the 50% of the country that was left out of the debate. It was passed for the sole purpose of giving Oblamer credit for getting a national healthcare bill through the congress, after so many years of democrat failure to achieve this objective.
Rafe Hollister
March 30th, 2012
11:44 am
Americans need to quit thinking socialism is “all bad.”
Not only bad, it is UNAMERICAN! If you want socialism, move to a socialist country, America was not set up that way!
Dusty
March 30th, 2012
11:50 am
Well, Kyle has explained so well at 11:07 the European healthcare systems which some here think are ideal. Not only are they much smaller countries with less population, they have higher taxes. And I haven’t heard of anybody needing expert medical care headed for those countries. Cheaper surgery like Thailand but not necessarily the best. But the princes and pontiffs head to the USA for the best medical care. Let’s not ruin it. It will not stay the best with socialized medicine.
I’m off my soapbox and out into the sunshine. Tres wunderbar!
HDB
March 30th, 2012
11:50 am
“When you have a “clunker” with most parts failing, you trade it in and get a new model.”
When you can’t afford a new model, you fix the clunker you’ve got…because it’s cheaper than the financing you pay!! Same here….unless you want to go to single-payer (which it should be in the first place!)………
Thulsa Doom
March 30th, 2012
11:55 am
“Hardly any developed country has such a mess of health care insurance as the US”
Not quite. Canada now has a program where they piggyback off the U.S. health care system. Ever looked at how few MRI machines Canada has per 100,000 people compared to the U.S.? Its embarrassing for proponents of socialized health care.
But I digress. Canadian partnerships actually now encourages their citizens to go to and use U.S. facilites and get reimbursed by the Canadian govt. Why? Because the Canadian system typically can’t afford the fixed cost of building new hospitals, outpatient clinics, purchasing imaging machines, etc.
http://www.freep.com/article/20090820/BUSINESS06/908200420/Canadians-visit-U-S-get-health-care
Don't Tread
March 30th, 2012
11:56 am
Single payer: A system where the government collects the premiums and then decides what health care you get.
The concept of freedom doesn’t mesh well with the government deciding your fate.
retired early
March 30th, 2012
11:57 am
Rafe
Do you want to get rid of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, pell grants, the DOT, military, police and education as well….these are all “socialist” programs. We all pay into a big pool, called taxes, and fund all these things which we as a country need. “one for all”…pure socialism.
Dusty
March 30th, 2012
11:58 am
MarkV
I see you want good healthcare for all, a true objective. But believe me, the people of north Georgia are more aware of south Georgia than those in Washington. If we must have beaurarcracies I take the smaller ones instead of the giants.
Now I’m really gone….
Mark
March 30th, 2012
11:58 am
Will ,March 30th, 2012@10:18 am,
You are awfully cruel. If you are stricken with illness, you can lose your job, your insurance, all you have worked for, due to no fault of your own. Are we turning into a country that only cares for the pain of a fetus?
Linda
March 30th, 2012
12:00 pm
During the Supreme Court hearings, Justice Scalia,
[I]f we struck down nothing in this legislation but the … ‘Cornhusker Kickback,’ OK? We find that to violate the constitutional proscription of venality, OK?” Scalia said, eliciting chuckles from the audience.
“When we strike [the 'Cornhusker Kickback'] down, it’s clear that Congress would not have passed [the bill] without that. It was the means of getting the last necessary vote in the Senate.
“And you are telling us that the whole statute would fall because the ‘Cornhusker Kickback’ is bad? That can’t be right,” he said.
Venality is a vice associated with being bribeable or of selling one’s services or power, especially when one should act justly instead. In its most recognizable form, dishonesty, venality causes people to lie and steal for their personal advantage, and is related to bribery and nepotism, among other vices.
Obamacare was partisan. Only 3 Republicans voted for it. Specter switched to the Democrats & was voted out. Snowe won’t run again. One-fourth of the Democratic senators who voted for it were bribed, including those from Neb., LA, Mich., Conn., Ver., PA, NY, Fla., OR, Mont., ND, SD, Utah, Wy. & Iowa. It is unbelievable that 45 senators could authorize the govt. take-over of 1/6 of our economy who were too stupid to get their own cookies.
This bill should be struck down for its combined support by venality & stupidity.
tiredofIT
March 30th, 2012
12:01 pm
Simple, take Medicare and set the age requirement to zero, done!
DawgDad
March 30th, 2012
12:24 pm
“If this is upheld what is next ? Gov’t ownes part of GM , will they require us to pay a GM products ? ”
Of course. They ALREADY DO require us to “pay a GM products” – we (present and future taxpayers) funded the GM bailout and provided other subsidies. More directly, even if they don’t immediately (or ever) require people to buy a GM product there is no question the purpose of Obamacare was to establish the precedent for the Federal Government to MANDATE private citizens engage in commerce. This is neo-fascist.
I will acknowledge there are bleeding heart liberals out there who honestly believe Obamacare is about health care. I would encourage them to closely study the Supreme Court case and gain some valuable insight into the truth.
St Simons - we're on Island time
March 30th, 2012
12:45 pm
If Obamacare mandate falls, what goes with it?
a) all hope of the cons squirming out of the responsibility of single payer
b) all hope of the cons controlling anything but the AM radio
K.Conway
March 30th, 2012
12:47 pm
Time for Obama to go and his radical agenda!!!
Pet
March 30th, 2012
12:57 pm
It is so poorly cobbled together….
Strike it down and start over.
Oblama
March 30th, 2012
12:59 pm
If Oblamacare then Oblama will go with it and I won’t miss either.
Oblama
March 30th, 2012
1:01 pm
Oblamacare + inept Fed government = disaster
Jefferson
March 30th, 2012
1:03 pm
Kyle, not all but You are already starting to forget.
brian
March 30th, 2012
1:18 pm
So now with the new WallStreet Poll we have actual statistics of how many people in the GOP and Tea Party are liars, or idiots, or lying idiots…(it’s at least 56% and I have the facts to back that up)
What I really want to know is of the 67% of them that want to overturn Obamacare is this. What if the child of that Tea Party person marching with the sign and protesting the bill was the person who had a pre-existing aggressive cancer. What if it was THEIR child who would loose their insurance, THEIR child who would not be able to get treatment without that insurance, THEIR child who was going to DIE as a result of their protest.
Do you still think it would be 67%? READ MORE….
http://thetop10.squarespace.com/the-politics-of-it-all/2012/3/28/the-gop-tea-party-lie-about-obamacareagain.html
Steve
March 30th, 2012
1:20 pm
We, as Americans, have been duped by the plutocrats and corporatists. We vote against our own best interests based on trumped up wedge issues. It’s so sad to watch America slow slide into a permanent decline.
Rafe Hollister
March 30th, 2012
1:22 pm
retired early
Military: Constitution enumerates several responsibilities of the US Government, one is to provide for the common defense. I am not going to justify each and every expenditure of the Fed gov, just to say that if it is not called for in the Constitution, i.e., an enumerated power, then it should be left to the states to provide, if it is absolutely necessary.
There is nothing in the Constitution that gives the US Govt the responsibility to equalize outcomes and take care of the citizens from cradle to grave. Taxes should be for the lawful running of the Fed Gov, not to amass money to distribute to the states, businesses, corporations, or the deadbeats. Charity is a person decision and should be left there.
If you prefer a country with a more social agenda then amend the Constitution or move, simple.
Linda
March 30th, 2012
1:30 pm
By June, we will finally have 9 people who have actually read the bill.
By Scalia’s statement that I posted above, it appears that the justices are aware of the drama that was associated with the bill. The Nebraska Cornhusker kickback was an attempt to bribe Sen. Nelson, the lone Democrat against the portion of the bill that originally included taxpayer-funded abortions. There were 3 independent news sources that confirmed that the Obama adm. threatened to close the Offutt Air Force Base, home of the Strategic Air Commend, in Nebraska to bribe Nelson.
http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-reno/ensign-requests-investigation-into-white-house-threats-to-pass-obamacare
It appears that at least one of the Justices has been keeping up with Kyle’s blog & watching FOX.
Rafe Hollister
March 30th, 2012
1:34 pm
Brian
(it’s at least 56% and I have the facts to back that up)
What is the test for idiots, I’d like to have a copy. You know this is a made up statement, not meant to do anything but inflame the GOP. What did Dems score on your idiot test, 98%?
brian, you are reading from a blog, no credibility whatsoever.
What did these people with the aggressive cancer do less than 2 years ago, before Obamacare?
Why are you trying in insinuate that after Obamacare is gone, that there will be no legislation to address these problems. It certainly would not take much effort or brains to come up with something constitutional and better than Obamacare.
dan
March 30th, 2012
1:38 pm
It’s very simple, there is not a severability clause (or is it that there is a non-severability clause) either way, either the whole law stands or falls. There is no picking it apart. That is the way the laws are written in congress.
Progressive Humanist
March 30th, 2012
1:42 pm
The “conservative” judges on the Roberts’ court have already shown themselves to be the most activist judges in our nation’s history. They will essentially make the law any way they want, which is not part of their constitutional duty. It’s been clear for more than a decade that precedent, traditionally the foundation of law, means nothing to this court and they literally make it up as they go along, based purely on political ideology. What’s most amusing (and disgraceful) is to hear these justices, supposedly the most objective, respected people in the nation, parrot talking points from Tea Party members and Fox News on the bench, talking points that have no relevance to constitutional law. Let’s stop pretending that the Supreme Court has any integrity. When a former Reagan solicitor general calls their behavior ‘disgraceful’, it’s just another clear sign they’ve lost all credibility.
HDB
March 30th, 2012
1:42 pm
Rafe Hollister
March 30th, 2012
1:34 pm
“What is the test for idiots, I’d like to have a copy.”
Ask Rick Santorum……he just passed it!
I was always taught, the first thoughts are your REAL thoughts…..
http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/03/30/rick-santorum-stops-himself-from-calling-president-obama-a-nr-video/
Intown
March 30th, 2012
1:46 pm
The lesson from this healthcare law and the impending strike down from a partisan Supreme Court, is that the Republicans may ahve been down in 2008-09, but man, if they didn’t play out a long term political strategy extremely effectively. They made Obama piss away a historic high tide in Dem political power by drawing out the healthcare fight as long as possible, negotiating in a poison pill, and then using that poison pill to likely strike down the law. I hate their take on public policy but man, you gotta respect their tactical strategy.
Intown
March 30th, 2012
1:48 pm
This never woulda happened if Hillary had won the primary.
Streetracer
March 30th, 2012
1:49 pm
Linda @ 1:30
The “Cornhusker kickback”, I believe, had to do with Medicaid funding as much as anything else. Being Bellevue, NE born and raised, there has been no Stragitic Air Command for several years. Air Force was reorganized to eliminate SAC and TAC.
However as far as PPACA goes it is real bad legislation. I saw a quote from one of the Supremes to the effect that reading the law was a violation of the 8th Amendment.
Many seem to be woefully ignorant of why our Constitution was constructed as it is (bad education?). The Federal Government has very specific enumerated powers for a reason; to prevent tyranical goverance. Basically, each person and/or state has the right to do whatever it wants, except for those enumerated Federal powers. Since each of us has this very wide freedom to behave however we want, people have decided that there elected state and local representatives could regulate certain of those behaviors (RIGHTS) for the common good.
Mary Elizabeth
March 30th, 2012
1:50 pm
I believe health care is a human right, just as I believe social security is a human right in one’s old age, and a good education is a human right that should be available to all classes of Americans.
Conservatives should have been careful for what they have wished – because they are about to get it.
What will happen – without ObamaCare – when a person loses his job because of physical or mental illness? He, then, will lose his healthcare. And his family will probably go bankrupt, and worse, if his illness is severe enough and if it lasts long enough, and costs him enough – without medical coverage.
This is what happens when health insurance is connected to employment.
The next, and better step, of course, would be to pass a single-payer medical insurance plan for the nation, but that is not going to happen anytime soon, because there was tremendous resistance, even, to passing ObamaCare. Single-payer would need to happen in small, incremental steps – like first having ObamaCare sustained.
No protection for pre-existing conditions, no protection against being dropped just when you need medical coverage, no protection against inordinately high insurance premiums, no coverage for your children until they are 26 on your plan.
Yes, our nation is about to get what many have wished for. Looks like partisan thinking (and interests) will prevail among members of the Supreme Court, once again.
Linda
March 30th, 2012
2:05 pm
brian@1:18, You mis-cited your site. It specifically states that 67% of AMERICANS who were polled are against Obamacare. Do you really believe that 67% of Americans are members of the GOP & the Tea Party? If that was true, Obama might as well start packing.
The health care bill is legal mumbo jumbo. It’s the regulations that are being written that we need to worry about, already over 12,000 pages, & the announcements being made that confirm our worst nightmares.
You are confusing health care & health care insurance. No one is dying due to the lack of either one.
The bill passed over 2 years ago & becomes more unpopular as time goes by. What matters now more than polls is its constitutionality.
Streetracer
March 30th, 2012
2:14 pm
Mary Elizabeth @ 1:50
I fully agree with your first paragraph, however not much else. I believe that it is incumbent on me to help those less fortunate or who have bad luck or whatever. But one who does not share those same views should not be compelled by Government Fiat to provide assistance. That, IMHO, is neither Constitutional or good public policy.
MarkV
March 30th, 2012
2:15 pm
Progressive Humanist @1:42 pm
Why I agree with the substance of your post, but you should not paint all the justices on the Supreme Court with the same brush.
I would add that listening to an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court compare the health care to broccoli does not give one much confidence in the near-term future of this country.
Emma
March 30th, 2012
2:16 pm
@Bobby Taylor! Thanks for a CLEAR understanding of what could be ahead!
Oblama
March 30th, 2012
2:19 pm
gm – Sorry but I never said I supported Bush and I never voted for him. You label everyone that disagrees with YOUR opinion a right wing lunatic. I didn’t vote for Oblama either because he supports BIG government solutions for every problem. Some call that socialism. Most of you in the “progressive” (leftist) movement dream of a world where there are no different races, no sexes, and no different views from your own. Your world would be clones, all identical in color, all sexless, all of one common opinion (leftist) with the inability to think as an individual – because the government is going to look after you, tell you what is right for you and you will be allowed the same number of seconds to live and then be snuffed out. The FED government needs cleansing of those entrenched in Congress. It is inept and corrupted by long time politicians whose greatest desire and purpose is to get reelected. I say term limits for BOTH parties since you refuse to vote out the incompetent and the corrupt. Oblama is a term I coined to describe those in BOTH parties who blame the other party and never accept responsibility for the inept mess that BOTH sides created. That includes the current President and the one before him. I expect that you would never recognize and apologize for the contribution YOUR side has contributed to this Fed debt.
OBIWAN
March 30th, 2012
2:26 pm
One thing that cost NOTHING could be done now, let insurance companies go across state lines. Why is that so hard? Oh that’s right they made the law saying you could NOT go across state lines, wonder why.