On Newt Gingrich’s bad night and chances going forward
When I explained my vote for Newt Gingrich in Georgia’s presidential primary, I described him as “the candidate who is clearest and most effective at offering a different direction” than the one in which Barack Obama is leading us. For the past eight days, GOP votes in a number of states expected to be sympathetic to the former Speaker have been proving me wrong about the “most effective” part, at least.
The results last night in Alabama and Mississippi were dreadful for Gingrich. Not only did Rick Santorum beat him in each state, but in each state Gingrich’s vote total put him closer to third-place Mitt Romney than to Santorum. This, following results on last week’s Super Tuesday in which Gingrich finished third in both Oklahoma and Tennessee.
One small sign of Gingrich’s troubles connecting with voters: He came in third in Madison County, Ala., home of NASA’s Huntsville space and rocket campus, despite his repeated (and oft-ridiculed) comments in favor of a robust U.S. space program. In much the same way, he lost Brevard County, Fla., home to the Kennedy Space Center, by 10 percentage points back in January.
The public comments made by Gingrich and his supporters last night indicate he will press forward with a strategy to deny Romney an outright majority of delegates and then, presumably, win the nomination on the convention floor. While there are good and bad arguments made about the wisdom of a convention fight in late August, clearly the worst outcome would be for that fight to result in a nominee whom Republican primary voters had already rejected at the ballot box.
If the strategy is simply to deny Romney the nomination, at this point Gingrich’s continued candidacy works against that. By denying Santorum outright majorities in states like Alabama, which give nearly all their delegates to a candidate with more than 50 percent of the vote but split them in case of a mere plurality, he is ensuring that Romney continues to pick up delegates even in states where he is relatively weak.
The calls for the primary to wrap up completely are premature, because there is plenty of time left for Republicans to heal the wounds inflicted along the way and close ranks around the eventual winner. But voters Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee have made clear that the time is drawing near for a three-man race to become a two-man race. (Obligatory Ron Paul note: The Texas congressman’s strategy of amassing delegates in caucus states has fizzled, and with it his chances of being a power broker at the GOP convention.)
I don’t regret my vote for Gingrich, because at the time there was a path for him from Georgia to the convention in Tampa. That path is now sealed off. It’s a free country, and he can continue campaigning if he wishes. But it’s no longer a campaign with a chance of winning.
– By Kyle Wingfield
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
181 comments Add your comment
sheepdawg
March 14th, 2012
1:16 pm
tiberius – don’t call bill maher a cretin or kyle will ban you from this site. and it makes you look like the prejudiced folks in the video???? are you a walmart republican also?
@@
March 14th, 2012
1:16 pm
I’ve always thought Bush’s liberalism was tied to his compassion. NCLB? Due to “the soft bigotry of low expectations.”
…overseeing the corporate destruction of capitalism and the worst economic implosion since the Great Depression? Homeownership for minorities.
Among two of the reasons I voted for him. His humility was another.
Lesson learned. Can’t afford to be compassionate anymore.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
1:20 pm
“The facts are that those rankings, across a wide variety independent institution, are almost universal in their agreement that Bush was one of the very worst ever.”
Opinions are now facts. Got it, AmVet. Nice to know you have to ignore the definitions long-established for those words to make your case.
And nice of you to cite another OPINION POLL to try to make your pathetic case.
AmVet
March 14th, 2012
1:22 pm
How many more facts will you need, Tiberius?
LOL.
It’s not like I’ve exhausted them all.
Not even close.
Trust me, when it comes to your hero George, there are a *lot* more damning ones left.
That man screwed up more in his first 100 days in office than most presidents do in their first two years…
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
1:25 pm
Sheepdawg, I didn’t bother to watch your link. Waste of time and electrons. Bill Maher is a two note toad – liberals=good, conservatives=bad.
And understand one thing about me if nothing else. I am not a Republican, I am a Constitutionalist.
You’re not ready to debate that.
And I don’t shop at WalMart after Alabaster, AL. Google it if you don’t know what that means.
@@
March 14th, 2012
1:32 pm
Botched Katrina response? Debateable.
Oftentimes, success is born from disaster.
Prior to Hurricane Katrina, 2 percent of New Orleans public school students attended charter schools. Today, that number has risen to over 61 percent. For the 2010 school year, 60 public charter schools are educating the students of New Orleans. That increase in charter school population has been accompanied by inspiring growth in academic achievement.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
1:33 pm
“How many more facts will you need, Tiberius?”
Your next “fact” will be your first fact, AmVet.
And as stated before, I’ll not defend the term of GWB in the larger context of history, as that is yet to be determined. He had one great success, and that was his performance following the attacks on 9/11. However, that was one that he, and he alone was responsible for.
His failures were aided and abetted by Congresses, made up with both Democrat and Republicans. Folks like Ted Kennedy, Rick Santorum, John Kerry, John McCain, Barney Frank, Hillary Clinton and others were equally responsible for much of the issues you rail against GWB.
@@
March 14th, 2012
1:43 pm
Forcing AmVet to choose.
A pair of Wyoming bald eagles now qualify as a really endangered species.
The Northern Arapaho Tribe secured an extraordinarily rare permit from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service allowing the Native Americans to kill two of the national birds for religious use.
The national agency, in a 2009 report, said it has never issued a license for the killing of a bald eagle — making it likely that the tribe was the first group to ever get the legal go-ahead.
The highly unusual decision came three years after the tribe’s initial request to kill two of the eagles. The ruling could defuse a federal lawsuit filed last year by the tribe in the flap.
Federal law bars the killing of any bald eagle under almost any circumstance. The Wyoming tribe argued that the ban was a violation of their religious freedom.
AmVet has always loved the bald eagle, the Native Americans, but hates anything having to do with religion.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/northern-arapaho-indian-tribe-kill-bald-eagles-article-1.1038792?localLinksEnabled=false
AmVet
March 14th, 2012
1:45 pm
His failures were aided…
Uh oh.
Looks like someone just unwittingly acknowledged those multitude of facts…
It’s all good.
Really the cut and run Lil BB was the one who should be defending Bush, not you. Since he was the one who made that bizarre, substance free claim about BHO being the worst ever, in the first place. (But between you and me, he doesn’t do debate…)
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
1:50 pm
AmVet, do not ever try to put words in my mouth.
I used the term “failures” without any specifics. You and I would probably agree as to some of those we both consider failures, however, as someone who doesn’t take a preconceived animus into the discussion of politics, I have the luxury of looking at ALL the players and situations which brought about his failures, rather than the uninformed blanket statement of blame you like to use.
td
March 14th, 2012
2:06 pm
sheepdawg
March 14th, 2012
1:09 pm
tiberius, bill maher hit the nail on the head with that one don’t you think? typical southern conservative,
I guess all those Republicans that live in East Cobb, Cherokee, North Fulton, Gwinn, and Forsyth counties that hold the majority of all the leadership positions in our major businesses and run most of the small businesses are not considered conservatives?
Now let us go to the Department of Education website and look at the SAT scores of the children whose parents live in our 70% democratic congressional districts. What do you think that will tell us about Dems in this state?
JB
March 14th, 2012
2:29 pm
If Newt would drop out Rick would win, The liberal press would make America believe that Rick was a fruit cake and Obama would win by 7-10 points. JOBS JOBS JOBS…..debt, economy etc are the real hot buttons. Romney plays that well. Moderates are OK with all that, Mitt wins by 3-4 points. Next.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 14th, 2012
2:29 pm
Some polls show a majority believe Obozo is a Muslim.
Respect the polls, AmVet.
JB
March 14th, 2012
2:34 pm
25% of America believe that he’s Muslim, in several NATIONAL polls….And I’m surprised only 53 % of the state of Mississippi thinks that…..Must be all the white folk….LOL
sircharles19
March 14th, 2012
2:40 pm
Newt is talking like his the President. But never officially addresses President Obama in an respectful manner. What are his chances….none! Did you see his long speech last night….he did not win nothing but jumping on the back of Senator Santorum riding along like he actually won. I think he must be on the road to long. His wife realize that he is finished but he can’t take no nor do he realize it. Sorry Newt! You are not wanted by the people of these United States of America and your own party has denounced you. Its time you get out where you can.
JB
March 14th, 2012
2:45 pm
I don’t believe it. Pew JUST released a new poll saying Obama beats ALL GOP challengers by anywhere from 10-14 points. I would bet the ranch that’s BS. No way Jose.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 14th, 2012
2:47 pm
Obozo said Obozocare would cost under a trillion dollars; turns out it will be almost twice that.
Of course, a failure like that would NEVER ding his ranking versus others to have held the office.
Your Klown Prince is a liar and a failure.
Worst ever.
JB
March 14th, 2012
2:52 pm
Interesting that no one from Harvard Where Obama embraced this radical Professor in public ( Normal, not radical at Harvard) would not step forward in 2008 and talk about that. What are the chances of the entire crowd being anti American? 95 to 5?
Dusty
March 14th, 2012
3:09 pm
Well, this blog is just about ruined. Every outcast from Bookman’s blog is over here trying to tell us what to think, how to vote, and making their time worn insults over Bush and current candidates. The pay must be good although the results are cheap.
Did I mention the tiresome insults about Southerners as if most of us are not Southerners? I’d call it bad manners but it is so much lower than that. Right off the bottom of the ignorance barrel.
If Newt Gingrich is not making progress, is that food for insults? We should be glad we can get someone with good credentials who sincerely wants to serve this country is available. Being served now by the least experienced, politically directed, non-inspiring, most expensive president in many decades, we should be thankful for any opportunity for change. But all prospects get mostly insults. Those who run must be tarred and feathered and run the gauntlet to even try for office.
If news outlets continue to run blogs with this kind of participation, they should not call themsleves “news” in any sense of the word. It is nothing but wolf pack agenda with no credit for anyone. I do not enjoy watching our fine country get littered with trash..
JB
March 14th, 2012
3:14 pm
Dusty……Do you think the Bookman crowd looks like the Bar scene crowd from Star Wars? That’s the image I get reading them.
All I'm Saying Is....
March 14th, 2012
3:17 pm
Newt is staying in the race until Tampa because the longer he runs, the more $$$ in his future Fox News contract. He saw what happened to Huckabee ($500,000 a year from FN alone plus additional undisclosed dollars from Citadel for his radio gig) and Palin ($1 million annually) and wants him some of that. His consulting business won’t last forever but the man sure can talk….
Dusty
March 14th, 2012
3:19 pm
Could be, JB, could be..
I just wish they’d stay on their own “planet”.
Dusty
March 14th, 2012
3:22 pm
All I”m Saying @3:17
All you are saying is you don’t know what you are talking about.
JB
March 14th, 2012
3:23 pm
Just my opinion, but Newt may be a blessing. Santorum might be killing Mitt with Newt not in there, and I like Rick, I just don’t think moderates, who will decide this thing, will vote for Rick. Conservatives would vote for Hillary over Obama.
AmVet
March 14th, 2012
4:37 pm
…but hates anything having to do with religion.
As Ann Landers wrote, who raised that vegetable?
MarkV
March 14th, 2012
4:39 pm
There seems to be a substantial difference between the public perception of two of the candidates and what probably is the reality, which is caused in parts by those candidates’ own efforts.
Newt Gingrich is often described by those who know him well as being very smart, and that should count for something. How to explain the many dumb things he has been saying? I would say it is mainly demagoguery, saying things that he knows will play will with partisans, who do little critical thinking (such as about the $2.50 gas), just like the many on this blog. But his main problem is simply the high negatives, that difficult to exactly analyze impression he has developed over the years, his sarcasm and putting down people, in addition to his personal history. “The baggage.”
Mitt Romney is an interesting case in the sense that what is often considered one of his main shortcomings – the difficulty “to relate to ordinary people ”- should not be a good reason to reject him for the office. Not only is there little evidence that it would make him a bad president, but all that I hear about him is that he is personally a very nice guy. And in spite of some criticism of his past he is probably a good manager. Romney’s main problem, in my view, is that he wants the presidency so bad, that he is willing to take virtually any position he thinks will help him, and that will bite him if he wins the nomination.
Santorum is, in some ways, a polar opposite to Romney. A guy who can genuinely “relates” to ordinary people, and does not change positions for expediency as much as the other candidates do His problem, especially if he won the candidacy, is how much he is out of touch with the society in general, especially the young people, on social issues .
Frank Dunner
March 14th, 2012
4:41 pm
Romney lies and said himself he is no Reagan Republican he does not want to go back to the years of Reagan in his own words. What a loser Romney should be a democrat and that’s why he is doing poorly. He is more hawkish on defense than most democrats not all.
g o
March 14th, 2012
4:48 pm
maybe romney & his pac paying gingrich &/or adelson & other gingrich backers actually are romney backers
Michael H. Smith
March 14th, 2012
6:05 pm
Gingrich’s chances of being irrelevant and becoming obscure are very good.
His chances of winning the GOP nomination for President…
Calista scares me
March 14th, 2012
6:16 pm
Um………that would be F$#$%ing Zero Kyle.
Just saying..
March 15th, 2012
5:33 pm
Another day, another poll:
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/obama-mentum/?hp