On Newt Gingrich’s bad night and chances going forward
When I explained my vote for Newt Gingrich in Georgia’s presidential primary, I described him as “the candidate who is clearest and most effective at offering a different direction” than the one in which Barack Obama is leading us. For the past eight days, GOP votes in a number of states expected to be sympathetic to the former Speaker have been proving me wrong about the “most effective” part, at least.
The results last night in Alabama and Mississippi were dreadful for Gingrich. Not only did Rick Santorum beat him in each state, but in each state Gingrich’s vote total put him closer to third-place Mitt Romney than to Santorum. This, following results on last week’s Super Tuesday in which Gingrich finished third in both Oklahoma and Tennessee.
One small sign of Gingrich’s troubles connecting with voters: He came in third in Madison County, Ala., home of NASA’s Huntsville space and rocket campus, despite his repeated (and oft-ridiculed) comments in favor of a robust U.S. space program. In much the same way, he lost Brevard County, Fla., home to the Kennedy Space Center, by 10 percentage points back in January.
The public comments made by Gingrich and his supporters last night indicate he will press forward with a strategy to deny Romney an outright majority of delegates and then, presumably, win the nomination on the convention floor. While there are good and bad arguments made about the wisdom of a convention fight in late August, clearly the worst outcome would be for that fight to result in a nominee whom Republican primary voters had already rejected at the ballot box.
If the strategy is simply to deny Romney the nomination, at this point Gingrich’s continued candidacy works against that. By denying Santorum outright majorities in states like Alabama, which give nearly all their delegates to a candidate with more than 50 percent of the vote but split them in case of a mere plurality, he is ensuring that Romney continues to pick up delegates even in states where he is relatively weak.
The calls for the primary to wrap up completely are premature, because there is plenty of time left for Republicans to heal the wounds inflicted along the way and close ranks around the eventual winner. But voters Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee have made clear that the time is drawing near for a three-man race to become a two-man race. (Obligatory Ron Paul note: The Texas congressman’s strategy of amassing delegates in caucus states has fizzled, and with it his chances of being a power broker at the GOP convention.)
I don’t regret my vote for Gingrich, because at the time there was a path for him from Georgia to the convention in Tampa. That path is now sealed off. It’s a free country, and he can continue campaigning if he wishes. But it’s no longer a campaign with a chance of winning.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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181 comments Add your comment
MoneyTrain
March 14th, 2012
9:49 am
Gingrich–will stay in the race to keep his name in the news, build more PR for 7-8 figure lobbying / consulting deals he will be negotiating with companies for influence after the election — he’ll be in big demand and can get a lunch date with any key shaker in DC. That’s how it works.
PSS
March 14th, 2012
9:49 am
I have no dog in this hunt since I am a DEM, but for my Republican friends – even though Mitt lost here in the South, aren’t those Southern Rs going to come back to him in November? (Assuming he is there in November) I mean it’s not like Obama is going to win in the South……
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
9:49 am
“If you’re going to vote for Romney, may as well vote for Obama….healthcare, energy, taxes….They’re the same”
Except in the real world, Joe the Prophet, they’re really not.
JohnnyReb
March 14th, 2012
9:53 am
Old Hippie – roger on the GOP. I have in the past given them money, not a huge amount but enough that they keep wanting more. Nothing to them this year, and when they call I let them have it about pushing Romney.
Ted – I think the Left is making a big mistake, but then again most everything they do is a mistake, to think the vote from the Right will be fractured in November. My crystal ball shows Obama out by a landslide regardless of who the Repub nominee may be. I want Santorum, but will give dough to Romney and vote for him if he is chosen.
Button Gwinnett
March 14th, 2012
9:53 am
“(Obligatory Ron Paul note: The Texas congressman’s strategy of amassing delegates in caucus states has fizzled, and with it his chances of being a power broker at the GOP convention.)”
.
Don’t feel obliged Kyle……We wish for no obligations from weak frightened metro/federo-sexuals who naively believe that Washington will protect them, manage their health-care and/or their finances.
.
Whether or not the MSM/State quislings realize it or not………Ron Paul is THE power broker.
Rafe Hollister
March 14th, 2012
9:55 am
Kyle, you are so right on with your comments today (still can’t believe you and Georgia fell for the Newtster).
Tiberius @8:56, couldn’t have said it better, if we could add your comment to Kyle’s, the case would be closed on this issue.
Just saying..
March 14th, 2012
9:55 am
Ted @ 9:44- “Anyone who does not see the difference between Romney and Obama has either a logic problem or has not read very much.”
You realize this election will be held in a country where more people know Snooki than their senator…
luangtom
March 14th, 2012
10:03 am
Maybe the GOP can still get Rubio or Christie to still run………………………
Kyle Wingfield
March 14th, 2012
10:05 am
Dave G @ 9:08: I don’t “support” candidates. I explain who I’m voting for, which is more or less an endorsement, but that’s as far as I go. After that, it’s back to analyzing the race as it progresses, at least until I get another vote. Which would be in November.
Bernie
March 14th, 2012
10:07 am
Newt’s present status in this election reminds me of that old nursery rhyme. ” All the King’s horses and All the King’s men cannot put Humpty Dumpty together again.”
sick&tired of being sick&tired
March 14th, 2012
10:10 am
To answer your question ZIP.
Kyle Wingfield
March 14th, 2012
10:10 am
Rafe @ 9:55: It was a different race on March 2. Or at least I perceived it to be.
Just saying..
March 14th, 2012
10:11 am
luangtom @ 10:03: “Maybe the GOP can still get Rubio or Christie to still run………………………”
Or prior chart toppers Palin or Trump………………
Kyle Wingfield
March 14th, 2012
10:12 am
Bernie @ 10:07: That would be a good point, if Newt had the horses and the men. I’m not saying funding and organization are the main reasons he’s losing, just that your point is wildly removed from the facts.
Cammi317
March 14th, 2012
10:15 am
In exactly what other state does Boss Hogg, errr I mean Gingrich, think he has a snowball’s chance in hell in getting a proportionate size of the vote? What little bit that is not divided between Romney and Santorum will go to Paul in the northern states. From what I can tell on the west coast newspaper blogs, it’s pretty mucht the same story out there. The majority of Newt’s follows lie right here in the southeastern United States….mainly in Georgia and South Carolina, as we have seen. Anyone still donating to Newt’s campaign at this point must have money to burn.
md
March 14th, 2012
10:18 am
Newt’s blind hatred for Mitt is causing blindness to his so called intentions. Acting petty is actually helping Romney……folks should think about that before voting for the guy to be President.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 14th, 2012
10:20 am
Bernie…your point is wildly removed from the facts.
————
Kyle HAS been away quite a bit, hasn’t he?
HDB
March 14th, 2012
10:21 am
In looking at the GOP race, this sums it up quite nicely!
The Republican Party is brain-dead, it just hasn’t stopped twitching yet.
2012: Their most viable candidates are a patrician and unlikable caricature of their Democratic opponent, a philandering lobbyist who was drummed out of his own party by ethics violations, and the American version of the Taliban’s own Mullah Omar.
2008: Their chosen candidates were a “straight-talking” guy who spent the previous eight years letting his party get away with everything he supposedly stood against; and a reality-television star in-the-making.
2001-2006: The Republicans held the Presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress. They achieved nothing except massive debts that crippled the government, deregulatory economic timebombs that crippled families and households, a hollowed out military that no longer serves as a destination for our best and brightest, and generated enmity everywhere abroad in a globalizing economy.
This country needs a conservative alternative to the Democratic party. A two-party system cannot function when one side is comprised of reactionary and self-interested demagogues. Democrats can (ironically) be much too libertarian for their own good as they seek to allow citizens to fully self-determine without consequences.
A conservative party that really focused on family values of households as the foundation of communities would be a great start. But first that party would have to accept that real, high-functioning families don’t look like the Leave-it-to-Beaver 1950s. We need to accept gays, grandparents, and coalitions of hardworking single parents into the mix. Secondly, that party would have to promote business growth that is family friendly through socially redeeming outputs, zoned and regulated activities, employee compensation that allows families to prosper, and public schools that prepare the next generation of productive citizens.
But the Republican party ain’t it.
Just saying..
March 14th, 2012
10:21 am
The “Way Forward” (this election cycle’s invented phrase for losers) for the GOP candidate of your choice:
First, master pretzel logic…
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
10:23 am
This pretty much sums up Newt (and did so even before the Georgia primary, Kyle).
Gingrich is now sealing his fate with the GOP upper echelon. He can’t win. He’s made no bones about his desire to block Mitt Romney from getting the nomination. His thin skin regarding the attacks Romney hurled against him (the very same ones Newt began with not a moment’s hesitation) is driving his “We’re in this until Tampa” mode. He’s a big ego, big ideas, very small man who can’t take what he’s more than willing to dish out.
When Romney becomes the nominee, Newt’s input will be limited to – well – everything. He likely won’t even get any phone calls returned.
md
March 14th, 2012
10:23 am
“If you’re going to vote for Romney, may as well vote for Obama….healthcare, energy, taxes….They’re the same”
Haven’t been listening have you………Romney is for State’s rights, and their right to experiment as they see fit. Think about it, 50 States experimenting with various healthcare plans until one actually stumbles upon one that works well……then the others would jump on the bandwagon.
Vs cramming one groups ideas onto everybody so we all go down together…………..
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 14th, 2012
10:23 am
In a brokered convention, Romney is toast. The question is how do his delegates split between Gingrich and Santorum?
Ted
March 14th, 2012
10:25 am
Unless most people, Newt has gotten less mature as he has aged. He cannot accept the fact that many people think he is lacking. He childishly blames it on “negative advertising”. But, we are voting on what we see, not what we have been told.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
10:26 am
If you’re looking for a logical, cogent analysis of the Republican party and where it should be heading, don’t bother reading HDB’s screed at 10:21.
Just saying..
March 14th, 2012
10:29 am
HDB @ 10:21:
Where have YOU been? Welcome to the conversation.
Your summary is exactly what I see.
md
March 14th, 2012
10:29 am
“In a brokered convention, Romney is toast. The question is how do his delegates split between Gingrich and Santorum?”
Depends on who is doing the brokering……seems Mitt would have the upper hand there too since he would have the most delegates. I get tickled listeneing to Newt talk about Romney not getting enough votes to win outright…….hello…….Newt……you in there. He doesn’t seem to understand that he has nowhere near the votes either……………
Jefferson
March 14th, 2012
10:33 am
Well you should regret it, it was a bad decision.
Kyle Wingfield
March 14th, 2012
10:37 am
HDB @ 10:21: That doesn’t read like your usual writing style. If you lifted it from elsewhere, you need to attribute it.
Jefferson
March 14th, 2012
10:38 am
Still expecting Romney to turn left, if he doesn’t soon he wiil get “left” behind.
ComradeAnon
March 14th, 2012
10:45 am
Nothing says different direction like serial adulterer, kicked out of your position by your own political party, $300,000 fine for financial impropriety, can’t find anyone from his political past to endorse him, corporate shakedown artist. Yeah, that’s the path we need to go down.
GT
March 14th, 2012
10:48 am
Polls mean nothing anymore. I wonder if it is the cell phone generation or people are just playing the pollster.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
10:51 am
Love it when I read liberals like Jefferson trying to give advice to Republican candidates, as if they actually want to help them.
jconservative
March 14th, 2012
10:56 am
The latest delegate count from last night’s Ala, MS, HA and AS primaries/caucuses that I have seen breaks down this way:
Romney…. 43
Santorum…36
Gingrich…..24
Paul………..1
Even when losing Romney is gaining the majority of delegates.
If anyone needed any proof that Gingrich is a small petty man, his actions after last night should be proof.
Santorum will need almost 900 more delegates to win the nomination prior to the convention.
Bernie
March 14th, 2012
10:58 am
Kyle @ 10:12, as usual in your typical PROBER thinking…..you are one of the Horses who was and still is doing the heavy lifting for Newt. Actually, that comment was made in reference to your blind support in a candidate that is clearly not capable of winning this election process noteven by a long shot. Even if all of the others withdrew today, Newt would still be rejected for a host of many reasons unrelated to his political positions. For you not to see or be aware of that fact , says a whole lot about YOU.
Dirty Dawg
March 14th, 2012
10:59 am
Kyle, do you truly believe that Barack Obama is leading us to some form of oblivion, or are you too just ‘following orders’? You seem like a reasonably intelligent person so how in blazes could you ‘reasonably’ believe all the criticisms and outright lies you and your compatriots level at him? I look forward to the day that you finally admit that you were just doing it for he money and that this ‘cult of conservatism’ was just that…a cult requiring unquestioning obedience and nothing more.
Darwin
March 14th, 2012
11:04 am
Oh darn. I hope he wins. I want to be the first to colonize the moon.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 14th, 2012
11:04 am
Romney needs to turn left like America needs four more years of Obozo’s communist scheming–not at all.
Kyle Wingfield
March 14th, 2012
11:05 am
Bernie @ 10:58: One article explaining my vote for him = “heavy lifting”? And you call my support “blind” in a comment on an article in which I say he’s toast?
Doesn’t take much for some people, I guess.
Dirty Dawg @ 10:59: When you leap from “the wrong direction” to “oblivion,” it’s pretty clear you’re not interested in a “reasonable” discussion.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
11:07 am
“I look forward to the day that you finally admit that you were just doing it for he money and that this ‘cult of conservatism’ was just that…a cult requiring unquestioning obedience and nothing more.”
Ahhhh. The “Us liberals are smarter than everybody else” argument. ( ‘Cause, of course, cult followers don’t have to think)
Got it, Dirty Dawg.
What’s next? You’re “They’re racists” argument?
Reebok
March 14th, 2012
11:08 am
So the GOP nomination is going to come down to the Almost Lifelike Romneybot and a pious, pompus twit who is doesn’t believe in sex OR higher education. Since I am hoping for Obama to win a second term, this is awesome from my POV, but I would like to see the GOP pull itself back from the lunatic fringe and give us a viable option. Happy Wednesday, all!
md
March 14th, 2012
11:14 am
“You seem like a reasonably intelligent person so how in blazes could you ‘reasonably’ believe all the criticisms and outright lies you and your compatriots level at him?”
Maybe because they are true?
The math says we shouldn’t go out and buy a new Cadillac (hc) when we can’t afford the note on the other caddies in the barn (SS, Medicare, Medicaid, etc)………
And if one is 16 trillion in the hole, one should not submit a budget that calls for another 1.5 T to be added to the debt.
Not too sure what you are seeing………….
Bernie
March 14th, 2012
11:14 am
Lil’ Barry Bailout, Kyle has been drinking the PROBER Kool-AID for many years now, this is nothing new to those who are regular readers of his writings. I actually believe his support was an angle to endear himself with Newt’s campaign for journalistic access in case of a Win. Kind of like calling yourself a Historian, when really what you are doing is Lobbying for access, Same difference.
All I'm Saying Is....
March 14th, 2012
11:20 am
Kyle: HDB may not have authored the words he or she posted but the real question is what do you think of those comments? Seems to me that it is chock full of facts that are undeniable about the GOP’s failings.
For example, it is hard to imagine the GOP under Reagan (which you and others wax on and on about) ever endorsing the prescription drug giveaway bill that W and the GOP Congress passed without any means to pay for it.
The reason the Tea Party exists is just as much due to the GOP straying from its supposed principles as due to their distaste for Obama’s legislative efforts.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
11:22 am
“I actually believe his support was an angle to endear himself with Newt’s campaign for journalistic access in case of a Win.”
Given Bernie’s “logic”, that certainly explains the lamestream media’s support for our current Disaster-in-Chief.
Ernest T. Bass
March 14th, 2012
11:25 am
I don’t regret my vote for Gingrich,
Wow just wow. Any respect I had for you is now gone. Maybe someday you can join him on his moonbase.
For you cons here is an interesting take by Fox news on gas prices.
Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzEnKdBAb_o
Bernie
March 14th, 2012
11:26 am
Kyle 11:05, you are right. “for some, it does not take much” your support for Newt clearly reflects your comments as stated. Your sugarery writings in suppoort of Newt as a better Leader than our current President is laughable on its face. Newt would have all of you to believe he is smarter than you think. that has been part of his entire Con game to get to this point where he is now. The thing is, once you have been in the sewer, its the smell that no longer offends the one who has been there.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
11:28 am
My German Shepherd / Lab mix is a better leader than the current Disaster-in-Chief.
And almost as smart.
ragnar danneskjold
March 14th, 2012
11:31 am
Dear Clyde @ 9:25, agree, good start – think it will require more, however.
Dear Kyle, follow up on an old matter, you “fooled” me with your endorsement (although I think you also wrote that you did not make up your mind until late). I think the fact that I erred (in my read/guess of your thoughts before then) is a tribute to your even-handed writing, my compliments.
Ernest T. Bass
March 14th, 2012
11:32 am
On Newt Gingrich’s bad night and chances going forward
Id say it was a much worse night for Mitt ” Cheesy Grits ” Romney
Personally im hoping for a Santorum win. He cant possibly win the general election.
Bernie
March 14th, 2012
11:34 am
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate! Surely, you are on the AJC payroll….:)