Obamacare’s costs: The hits just keep on coming
Posted on this blog, March 19, 2010:
To show you how far down the rabbit hole we’ve gone, Democrats were pleased yesterday when the Congressional Budget Office gave the two ObamaCare bills … a combined cost of “only” $940,000,000,000 over 10 years (see page 8). But as you already know if you’ve been paying attention to this blog, there’s more here than the headline number suggests. …
If we begin the 10-year clock for this bill in 2014, and assume the 7.5 percent growth in annual gross costs which the CBO applies in 2018 and 2019 would continue in later years, the cost from 2014-2023 would be $2 trillion. … Even if we are more charitable, and begin counting next year rather than this year with the same assumptions as above, the 10-year cost from 2011-2020 would be $1.2 trillion. (links and emphasis original)
From Philip Klein, writing at the Washington Examiner yesterday:
President Obama’s national health care law will cost $1.76 trillion over a decade, according to a new projection released today by the Congressional Budget Office, rather than the $940 billion forecast when it was signed into law. …
Today, the CBO released new projections from 2013 extending through 2022, and the results are as critics expected: the ten-year cost of the law’s core provisions to expand health insurance coverage has now ballooned to $1.76 trillion. That’s because we now have estimates for Obamacare’s first nine years of full implementation, rather than the mere six when it was signed into law. Only next year will we get a true ten-year cost estimate, if the law isn’t overturned by the Supreme Court or repealed by then. Given that in 2022, the last year available, the gross cost of the coverage expansions are $265 billion, we’re likely looking at about $2 trillion over the first decade, or more than double what Obama advertised. (emphasis added)
Ahem.
The only way in which Obamacare critics were wrong in our protests that the law would cost far more than advertised was that we underestimated the damage, by about $40 billion from 2014-2023 if the cost figure continues to grow at the minimum 6 percent annually CBO is now using. That would make it $2.04 trillion during those 10 years.
This is in part because, as Obamacare opponents explained at length at the time, congressional Democrats had rigged the score by beginning the tax increases before the spending kicked in. That made the 10-year figures both for the gross cost and the deficit “savings” look better than they would have if we considered 10 years of Obamacare fully implemented.
But it’s also because, as I’ve explained here recently, the estimates were faulty. Take three years in which there’s an overlap between the two estimates: 2017-2019. The new estimate for the total costs during that time span is now $147 billion, or 30 percent, higher than the original estimate just two years ago. The new estimate for “savings” has fallen by $314 billion, or 63 percent.
The result is that the effect on the federal budget from 2017-2019 has gone from a projected “savings” of $8 billion to an increased deficit of $453 billion.
And it’s only going to get worse in future years, if the new projections hold. That’s because they see the revenue portions holding steady while the expenses keep going up, up, up.
Oh — and this fiscal worsening is taking place while the projected increase in the number of people who are insured by 2019 thanks to Obamacare has fallen by 1 million.
What a disaster. Unless the Supreme Court bails us out, repealing this law and replacing it with a more market-oriented solution is critical.
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244 comments Add your comment
Linda
March 14th, 2012
9:34 pm
Liberals eat@8:57, You are a liberal, posing as a conservative. Only liberals talk that kind of trash. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Linda
March 14th, 2012
9:38 pm
@@ @ 9:09, The intuitive. Leave it up to a woman to get to the truth.
The GOPscare vs Obamacare
March 14th, 2012
9:39 pm
@Linda
March 14th, 2012
9:30 pm
Mr. GOP scare@8:56, There were weapons of mass destruction, so said the govts. of the world & the UN. You are delusional. Your questions should be, ” What happened to them? Where are they NOW?”
**********************************
We CAN”t ask Hussein.
We CAN”T ask Bin Laden.
hmmmmmmmmmm
What about Gee Dub?
heeheeheeheehee
Oh, he STARTED THAT LIE didn’t he?
Q: Were there really weapons of mass destruction in Iraq when the U.S. invaded in 2003?
A: No. The Iraq Survey Group determined that Iraq had abandoned its quest to develop chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and that it had already destroyed all of its existing stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons.
FULL QUESTION
I have friends in Texas, Seattle and Tennessee who say President Bush was right that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. They claim that the weapons were hidden in caves in the mountains, and are still hidden there, but we have not found them yet. Where did they get such ideas, and is there even the slightest chance they are right, and if so why wouldn’t Bush have said this? How did such a belief get started, and is there a way I can dispel them of the idea?
FULL ANSWER
As for how you dispel your friends’ notions that Iraq really did have stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons when President Bush no longer makes such claims himself, we suggest ridicule. If that doesn’t work, you may be out of luck.
After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Bush administration formed the Iraq Survey Group and tasked it with the job of locating WMD stockpiles in Iraq. The ISG was staffed with hundreds of intelligence analysts and military personnel from the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. The group scoured Iraq, searching for deposits of weapons. But that was actually only part of the ISG’s focus.
According to the ISG final report, the search for WMDs actually began during the invasion phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom. A military task force was deployed to investigate suspected WMD sites on the theory that the Iraqi military might otherwise employ those weapons against coalition troops. After the invasion, the ISG was established to conduct “a more systematic collection of evidence to build an understanding of Iraqi WMD programs.” In other words, the ISG did not simply look for WMDs. The group also looked at Iraq’s WMD capabilities and examined evidence relating to past WMD stockpiles.
During its investigation, the ISG reported that “[a] total of 53 munitions have been recovered, all of which appear to have been part of pre-1991 Gulf war stocks based on their physical condition and residual components.” These isolated discoveries received significant media attention, and it’s likely that these overhyped reports contributed to your friends’ beliefs that Iraq really did possess WMDs.
.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
9:40 pm
“Who made you judge and Jury.”
No one did, Liberals eat their children. I just prefer to have INTELLIGENT conversation that isn’t being diluted by people who can’t do the same without using racial slurs for the President.
Dusty
March 14th, 2012
9:40 pm
MarkV
My answer is quite honest. You just can’t accept reality. If you take one positive step over the line, such as our economy has done, it does not make it a winning race. We are still far behind.
Answer yes or no (honestly please): Has the national debt grown much larger the last three years?
Do you consider the economy in GOOD shape?
Do you think that Obamacare is well planned and financially possible as is currently constructed?
Do you think high unemployment is good even if it has dropped slightly in the past year?
I feel sure you will answer each question without prejudice or political persuasion. Uh huh…
Linda
March 14th, 2012
9:42 pm
GOPscare@9:10, Our family has you on our prayer list. God knows who you are & may He bless you!
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
9:43 pm
“So now YOU ALL are the BLOG POLICE.”
Nope. Just issuing friendly warnings based on Kyle’s recent posts regarding civility.
“I can’t help if some of US are creative and some of YOU are mediocre”
Trust me. There is NOTHING about you that is even remotely associated with the word creative.
Creepy? Yes. Creative? Not so much.
“YOU AIN’T THE BOSS OF ME.”
Good thing, too. I would have fired your a$$ long ago.
Liberals eat their children
March 14th, 2012
9:44 pm
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate! Why? The DNC, the Obama’s and his adminstration use them on others.
@@
March 14th, 2012
9:46 pm
GVO:
The term is derived from the name of the liberal musician Moby, who famously suggested in February of 2004 that left-wing activists engage in this type of subterfuge.
Talk to Moby. He’s the one that started it all.
Fred ™
March 14th, 2012
9:46 pm
@@
March 14th, 2012
9:25 pm
GVO:
Something in my 9:09 discredited me!!??!! Do tell.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Hey two boobs. You post here now instead of Jay’s? Can’t say I blame you, seems to be a definite drop in IQ over here. More follow along sheep…….
md
March 14th, 2012
9:47 pm
Seems some here don’t know the difference between a can’t and a won’t……
As for Iraq, some also need to understand that Congress was in on it……and let’s not visit the bs about they were lied to. Congress critters have the power to initiate their own investigations…..and at the time, they too went with what they thought they knew.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
March 14th, 2012
9:50 pm
Kyle- Could you please moderate T-Yloh? This baby killer is getting on my nerves.
Just askin…
Linda
March 14th, 2012
9:51 pm
The Kid@9:11, Anyone can go to the website to see how much the wars have cost & is costing.
http://costofwar.com/en/
The fact still remains that the economic stimulus bill passed by Obama & the Dems. 2/09 cost the same amt. that both wars had cost us at that time. It’s also true that the amt. spent on the economic stimulus bill, which raised unemployment by over 2%, was equivalent to what the US owed to China as of 2/09.
You are a pawn, kid.
MarkV
March 14th, 2012
9:52 pm
Dusty @9:40 pm
Dusty,
No, it is you who refuses to accept reality. Reality means facts. I did not mention a winning race. I did not write anything about national debt. I did not write that the economy was in GOOD shape, anything about Obamacare, about unemployment. I wrote about what you had specifically written about downhill spin of economy and the economy continuing to get worse for the past three years. By diverting to other issues you do not and cannot erase the fact that it was a false statement. As long as you do not accept that, your arguments are just a misdirection.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
9:53 pm
“Why? The DNC, the Obama’s and his adminstration use them on others.”
They are not Kyle Wingfield’s blog with HIS rules, Liberals eat their children.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
9:54 pm
Oh, and do you really want to lower yourself to THEIR level?
Old Timer
March 14th, 2012
9:55 pm
We have a “market solution” right now to deal with the uninsured. That solution consists of piling their healthcare costs onto our premiums and our taxes. Do you really think that “free” treatment at emergency rooms and hospitals doesn’t cost anything?
All we got with the ACA was more profits for insurance companies and more debt for us. Instead of going to a single-payer system, our Congress chose to go with a half-baked solution that guarantees continuation of the present costly system.
If you’re going to blast “Obamacare” at least propose something better. What’s better—continuing to pile the cost of treating the uninsured on the rest of us, while pretending that everything is fine, or coming up with a system that provides medical care to all? Or should we go to the Afghanistant/Pakistan model—death in the streets if you’re poor?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
9:56 pm
Well, Fred won’t be lasting here much longer.
Guess he didn’t read Kyle’s rules, either.
No loss once he’s gone, too.
@@
March 14th, 2012
9:57 pm
Fred:
You’re among the many reasons I’ve opted out of jay’s.
With all due respect, I find your comments over there to be among the goofiest.
So tell me, Fred…have you made up your mind whether you like me or not? Should I care?
schnirt
Linda
March 14th, 2012
9:58 pm
GOPscare@9:18, You still don’t get it. It’s not a matter of people on this blog who might or might not be discredited. It’s the fact that Obama is being discredited by every poll, especially those of independents, especially those in swing states. Obama is a habitual liar.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
9:59 pm
“This baby killer is getting on my nerves.”
As usual, IRYW, you are incorrect in your aSSumption about me, as I have never killed a baby (or anyone else for that matter) in my entire life.
Epic fail on your part (again).
AmVet
March 14th, 2012
10:04 pm
Poor clueless @@.
Kyle needs to ban himself for breaking his own rules, first…
Linda
March 14th, 2012
10:16 pm
GOPscare@9:39, I don’t have time to read your entire rant. My onions are caramelizing. Anyway, here’s a video of Democratic congress people who supported the Iraq war & who thoroughly accessed the threat of weapons of mass destruction, as they were required to do, under law.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5p-qIq32m8
Dusty
March 14th, 2012
10:18 pm
MarkV 9:52
I did not ask you what you “mentioned”. I asked you to answer several questions with a yes or no. You did not answer. You are afraid to be straight forward.
I gave you my honest opinion about the economy based on the people I know who are unemployed or under employed who don’t really care what the GDP reports. I know many homes are foreclosed because people cannot pay their mortgages. They don’t care about the GDP either. I know it is a celebration when a big company decides to hire a few more people. It goes on and on and the debt gorws larger and nobody is in the dark about it but YOU.
Did you know there is a better way to disagree with someone other than calling them a liar? Have you not noticed THAT in your “keen” observance of facts? It is perfectly permissable to say “I disagree with what you wrote.”
Try it. You might like it. I certainly would just in case you wish to continue this conversation.
The GOPscare vs Obamacare
March 14th, 2012
10:18 pm
@Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
9:43 pm
“So now YOU ALL are the BLOG POLICE.”
Nope. Just issuing friendly warnings based on Kyle’s recent posts regarding civility.
“I can’t help if some of US are creative and some of YOU are mediocre”
Trust me. There is NOTHING about you that is even remotely associated with the word creative.
Creepy? Yes. Creative? Not so much.
“YOU AIN’T THE BOSS OF ME.”
Good thing, too. I would have fired your a$$ long ago
******************************************
THANK YOU.
I will SAVE THIS 2.
Old Timer
March 14th, 2012
10:21 pm
The Federal government usually reports its Medicare administrative costs at about 2% of total payments under the program while private costs vary dramatically from market to market, but frequently are cited to be in the 15-20% range on average.
Source: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=administrative%20costs%20of%20private%20health%20insurance&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CGkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cahi.org%2Fcahi_contents%2Fresources%2Fpdf%
But we can’t have that guvmint insurance. We got to pay health insurance cos. a lot more so that we can be free to be fleeced.
The GOPscare vs Obamacare
March 14th, 2012
10:23 pm
@Linda
March 14th, 2012
10:16 pm
GOPscare@9:39, I don’t have time to read your entire rant. My onions are caramelizing. Anyway, here’s a video of Democratic congress people who supported the Iraq war & who thoroughly accessed the threat of weapons of mass destruction, as they were required to do, under law.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5p-qIq32m8
***********************************************
Linda,
I don’t have time to VIEW YOUR VIDEO. My onions are caramelizing TOO
.
Linda
March 14th, 2012
10:31 pm
What the Obama worshipers don’t realize is that Obama is merely a politician, a great politician. He does not walk on water nor does he have his own stash of money. What is worse than a politician is a lawyer that is a politician, which is what Obama is. Obama never had any experience in the economy, that is creating one single job. He has no idea how the economy even works.
The GOPscare vs Obamacare
March 14th, 2012
10:33 pm
@Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
9:56 pm
Well, Fred won’t be lasting here much longer.
Guess he didn’t read Kyle’s rules, either.
No loss once he’s gone, too.
*****************************************************************************
If Kyle BAN Fred, he is a hypocrite.
If Kyle is INFLUENCED by some of you and ban people who disagree with you he is a hypocrite.
I have saved RESPONSES from his YOU AND regular bloggers that are so NASTY, DISRESPECTFUL, VULGAR and LACED WITH PROFANITY.
Especially against the President of the United States.
What Fred said was TAME compared to what I have READ in the past.
Fred ™
March 14th, 2012
9:46 pm
@@
March 14th, 2012
9:25 pm
GVO:
Something in my 9:09 discredited me!!??!! Do tell.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Hey two boobs. You post here now instead of Jay’s? Can’t say I blame you, seems to be a definite drop in IQ over here. More follow along sheep…….
Dusty
March 14th, 2012
10:36 pm
AmVet, 10:04
Did you ever read Shakespeare’s Lady McBeth where she said “Out, damn spot!” when she saw her mistake.?
You don’t seem comfortable here. Please return to the happy host you left behind. Follow Lady McBeth’s advice. OUT is the way to go, sir…..
Linda
March 14th, 2012
10:45 pm
GOPscare@10:23, Proof that your mind is closed. Who needs to bother with the truth when he/she/it is a liberal?
My comment was 1 inch. Yours was at least a foot. Who reads that stuff?
You lied about having onions caramelizing. You can’t even spell it correctly, & I detect no aroma coming from your rants.
MarkV
March 14th, 2012
10:51 pm
Dusty @10:18 pm
Dusty,
I would answer your questions and/or debate them if you had the honesty to admit that what you wrote was false. If you want to measure the economy of a country by an anecdotal evidence of a few people you know and who like you do not care what the GDP is, that is your privilege, but do not confuse that with facts.
I have not called you a liar yet. I wrote that you did not know what you wrote about. It is perfectly permissible to say “I disagree with what you wrote,” when we deal with differing opinions. The economy decline or growth of a country is not a matter of opinion, it is a matter of facts.
Have a good night. I will be out of town tomorrow, so you can think about it, in case you wish to continue this conversation.
The GOPscare vs Obamacare
March 14th, 2012
10:52 pm
@Linda
March 14th, 2012
10:31 pm
What the Obama worshipers don’t realize is that Obama is merely a politician, a great politician. He does not walk on water nor does he have his own stash of money. What is worse than a politician is a lawyer that is a politician, which is what Obama is. Obama never had any experience in the economy, that is creating one single job. He has no idea how the economy even works.
*********************************************************
What the Obama HATERS don’t realize is that Obama is a GREAT politician. IF HE did walke on
water REPUBLICANS WOULD SAY OBAMA CAN’T SWIM.
The GOPscare vs Obamacare
March 14th, 2012
10:57 pm
@Linda
March 14th, 2012
10:45 pm
GOPscare@10:23, Proof that your mind is closed. Who needs to bother with the truth when he/she/it is a liberal?
My comment was 1 inch. Yours was at least a foot. Who reads that stuff?
You lied about having onions caramelizing. You can’t even spell it correctly, & I detect no aroma coming from your rants.
***************************************************************************************
Linda Linda SPELL CHECK POLICE?
How much are you getting paid?
Don’t forget to report it on your taxes.
Linda
March 14th, 2012
11:20 pm
GOPscare@10:52, I’ve already agreed with you that Obama is a great politician, but that is all he is.
@10:57, Proof that you are entirely delusional. Get a handle. I understand that you are upset that your Disaster-In-Chief is a disaster, but don’t take it out on me.
Dusty
March 15th, 2012
12:09 am
MarkV
You still haven’t answered my straight forward questions. You can’t make yourself do it.
I gave you my honest opinion. The GDP is not my opinion. Facts, maybe, but not opinion.
Is it impossible for you to think on your own? .When it rains do you say the weatherman said it was clear today so it is false to say it is raining ?
When you get sick do you say that the doctor has said you were in good health so it is false to mention illness?
When you run out of gas do you say that I was told this car would never have a problem so it is false to say it is not running?”
You seem unable to judge situations for what they obviously are. Continue your “assertions” blinded by political persuasions. Try not to make it so obvious.
By the way…..
I doubt that you are making a trip tomorrow since there are no facts to prove that. I may consider further communication when you offer proof. Otherwise, I give it no thought. It’s just an opinion. G’nite.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 15th, 2012
7:25 am
Guess what we haven’t heard on this topic? Any Obozo receptacles defending Obozo’s obvious lies on the cost of his government takeover of health care.
Obozo: Liar.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 15th, 2012
8:49 am
How does Obozo propose to pay for the increased cost of Obozocare?
The Net Costs of “ObamaCare” | MyGovCost | Government Cost Calculator
March 15th, 2012
12:44 pm
[...] the optimistic view. The Atlanta Journal and Constitution’s Kyle Wingfield explains why the critics of Obamacare were right to point out the President’s flawed estimates for the [...]
Michael H. Smith
March 15th, 2012
5:30 pm
Let’s see, how many people on this blog and others blogs said obumer and the Marxist democrats were lying through their teeth on the costs of obumerCare?
Well it probably wasn’t not 1.7 trillion of us but the lies told on the true costs of obumerCare probably did total at least 1.7 trillion. Kyle, please check with your contacts at the Washington Post to see if they have 1.7 trillion times 4 Pinocchio awards available for the Marxist obumerCare libs?
RL
March 15th, 2012
5:48 pm
Just remember folks… go vote out the Dem’s not just BO, all the dems so we can get this junk repealed!
Obamacare -- Promises vs Results - American Live Wire | American Live Wire
March 16th, 2012
3:00 pm
[...] (And that was considered a low estimate). Now, the CBO has updated its projection of the costs from $940 billion over ten years to $1.76 trillion over ten years. (I could talk about how the other countries with universal healthcare are currently attempting to [...]
Real Issue
March 16th, 2012
9:16 pm
The whole point of the government mandated health care system was to provide affordable health care. Can’t both parties agree that this plan does not create more affordable health care? Instead of the government going after the drug and health care companies outrageous costs for everyone (maybe because they are the biggest lobbying groups on the hill) their plan is to only provide health care for people who cannot afford it. Is that the real issue? If we do not get control our health care costs, more and more individuals will not be able to afford health care and the number Kyle refers to above will continue to grow at the taxpayers expense (they have to find the revenue somewhere). When is the pressure regarding the inflated health care costs and extreme testing in hospitals going to be discussed as the real issue instead of providing hand outs to the select few? Don’t we all deserve more affordable health care?
S. Powell
March 21st, 2012
5:36 am
I would like to see the 10 year projection of costs using before Obamacare as a base. $120 million dollars per year does not seem out of line. What is the offset for revenue coming-in to offset the cost?
Is there a problem with providing health care to the citizens of this country?