Obamacare’s costs: The hits just keep on coming
Posted on this blog, March 19, 2010:
To show you how far down the rabbit hole we’ve gone, Democrats were pleased yesterday when the Congressional Budget Office gave the two ObamaCare bills … a combined cost of “only” $940,000,000,000 over 10 years (see page 8). But as you already know if you’ve been paying attention to this blog, there’s more here than the headline number suggests. …
If we begin the 10-year clock for this bill in 2014, and assume the 7.5 percent growth in annual gross costs which the CBO applies in 2018 and 2019 would continue in later years, the cost from 2014-2023 would be $2 trillion. … Even if we are more charitable, and begin counting next year rather than this year with the same assumptions as above, the 10-year cost from 2011-2020 would be $1.2 trillion. (links and emphasis original)
From Philip Klein, writing at the Washington Examiner yesterday:
President Obama’s national health care law will cost $1.76 trillion over a decade, according to a new projection released today by the Congressional Budget Office, rather than the $940 billion forecast when it was signed into law. …
Today, the CBO released new projections from 2013 extending through 2022, and the results are as critics expected: the ten-year cost of the law’s core provisions to expand health insurance coverage has now ballooned to $1.76 trillion. That’s because we now have estimates for Obamacare’s first nine years of full implementation, rather than the mere six when it was signed into law. Only next year will we get a true ten-year cost estimate, if the law isn’t overturned by the Supreme Court or repealed by then. Given that in 2022, the last year available, the gross cost of the coverage expansions are $265 billion, we’re likely looking at about $2 trillion over the first decade, or more than double what Obama advertised. (emphasis added)
Ahem.
The only way in which Obamacare critics were wrong in our protests that the law would cost far more than advertised was that we underestimated the damage, by about $40 billion from 2014-2023 if the cost figure continues to grow at the minimum 6 percent annually CBO is now using. That would make it $2.04 trillion during those 10 years.
This is in part because, as Obamacare opponents explained at length at the time, congressional Democrats had rigged the score by beginning the tax increases before the spending kicked in. That made the 10-year figures both for the gross cost and the deficit “savings” look better than they would have if we considered 10 years of Obamacare fully implemented.
But it’s also because, as I’ve explained here recently, the estimates were faulty. Take three years in which there’s an overlap between the two estimates: 2017-2019. The new estimate for the total costs during that time span is now $147 billion, or 30 percent, higher than the original estimate just two years ago. The new estimate for “savings” has fallen by $314 billion, or 63 percent.
The result is that the effect on the federal budget from 2017-2019 has gone from a projected “savings” of $8 billion to an increased deficit of $453 billion.
And it’s only going to get worse in future years, if the new projections hold. That’s because they see the revenue portions holding steady while the expenses keep going up, up, up.
Oh — and this fiscal worsening is taking place while the projected increase in the number of people who are insured by 2019 thanks to Obamacare has fallen by 1 million.
What a disaster. Unless the Supreme Court bails us out, repealing this law and replacing it with a more market-oriented solution is critical.
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244 comments Add your comment
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
4:12 pm
“Name one bill W. pushed to over haul health care?”
“W” didn’t that I know of, however, you’re now moving the goal posts, as you first complained about “Republicans”. So, OK, Gm, here’s THREE from 2009 that never even got committee hearings in their Democrat-controlled chambers:
“In May, Republicans in the House and the Senate formed a bicameral coalition to produce the130-page “Patients Choice Act of 2009.”
In June, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) introduced the “Health Care Freedom Plan,” a 41-page proposal.
And in July, the Republican Study Committee, under the leadership of Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), unveiled the “Empowering Patients First Act,” a 130-page plan.”
I do so hope three was enough for you, Gm.
“Name 3 important things W. did for America?
1. 4500 America Troops dead in Iraq
2. 3500 Americans died in NY
3. Caused the worst economy collaps in America history. ”
Seriously? You’re BLAMING Bush for 9/11? Really?
Was Cheney secretly stringing explosives in the Twin Towers on the evening of 9/10?
Oh, and your #3 is completely false, as has been shown time and time again on this and other sites, but you keep believing it, Gm!
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
4:15 pm
“The bottom line of Obamacare is that it will cut into the obsene profits of America’s Medical Industry. Since this industry makes substantial contirbutions to the Republican Party, it’s no suprise that Republican politicians and their minions will attact Obamacare any way and every way they can.”
But it’s OK for the trial lawyers lobby to keep being the major contributor to the Democrat party, because it’s OK to continue the obscene profits they make off of malpractice suits, right, carlos?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
4:18 pm
“Now, where is that apology?”
I never apologize for being right, DannyX.
Now, have you figured out yet where your reading comprehension has failed you again?
Dusty
March 14th, 2012
4:20 pm
Well, uh oh. We have a sick one here (and more).
Gm @3:47 does NOT KNOW that the US President, the US Congress, the CIA , Prime Mnister of UK, British Intel all approved participation in a war in IRAQ. Bush was not alone…
Gm @3:47 does NOT KNOW that foreign terrorists carried out 9/11 attack on New York City. Bush did not do it.
Gm @ 3:47 does NOT KNOW that the economy of the US & the world was going on a downhill spin which President Bush tried to slow with TARP. That down hill spin has continued to get worse for the past three years under President Obama.. If Bush did it, Obama did it three times over.
What next? Bush caused WWI & WW2?
This gets so tiresome. Don’t liberals ever get any new material to throw in the wind?
Dusty
March 14th, 2012
4:24 pm
Sorry, Tiberius, I had not read your post @ 4:12 when I put mine in. Did not mean to overlap!
carlosgvv
March 14th, 2012
4:30 pm
Tiberius – 4:15
Are you saying two wrongs make a right? You can do better than that. Trial lawyers are one of the main reasons our judical system is in such a mess.
@@
March 14th, 2012
4:30 pm
Patients CHOICE Act?
Healthcare FREEDOM Plan?
EMPOWERING Patients First Act?
Compared to THE affordable (NOT REALLY) care ACT.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
4:32 pm
“Are you saying two wrongs make a right?”
No, I’m pointing out that your complaining about one thing doesn’t solve the problem, especially as it isn’t the ROLE of government to cut into the profits of private companies.
Linda
March 14th, 2012
4:35 pm
Kyle’s article omits the increased costs to the states.
The CBO originally estimated that increased state spending on Medicaid would be $20 B between ‘17 & ‘19, whereas Kaiser estimated that it would be $43.2 B thru ‘19. The CBO later estimated $60 B thru ‘21.
The CBO’s new findings indicate another 17 million people will be added to Medicaid by ‘22, than previously predicted.
Not only will Obamacare bankrupt the USA, but it will take the already insolvent states down the same rabbit hole.
The fed. govt. & most of the state govts. are broke.
There will be NO Medicare.
There will be NO Medicaid.
@@
March 14th, 2012
4:38 pm
carlosgvv:
Trial lawyers are one of the main reasons our judical system is in such a mess.
At present, we have 160,000 rules/laws from the federal government. That’s not counting individual state and local laws. Probably double what the feds have implemented. Lawyers would be the first to tell you that “the law” has become incomprehensible. 160,000 + 320,000? That’s close to half a million laws they have to sift through.
Linda
March 14th, 2012
4:41 pm
Gm@3:47 claims that Bush could fly 4 airplanes all at the same time. Somehow, I missed that.
Gm also thinks that Obama walks on water. Somehow, I missed that, too.
md
March 14th, 2012
4:46 pm
“Why I haven’t heard conservatives complain this much about something meant for the general good of the country since….since….social security…..or was it medicare?”
Yep……bankruptcy should be a picnic………
Jefferson
March 14th, 2012
4:47 pm
Its the profits (in many cases gouging) of the health care industry that is causeing the gov’t greif that brought reform on. Medicare is being ripped off by the same folks that would be out of business if it did not exist. Where would the hospitals be, who could afford their cost if not for the govt ? Smart things can be done, some don’t want to be smart.
td
March 14th, 2012
4:49 pm
DannyX
March 14th, 2012
Looks like you have switched to a blog that actually respects others opinions and does not practice personal attacks on the blogger instead. Are not conservative much nicer then you libs on other blogs.
td
March 14th, 2012
4:51 pm
Linda
March 14th, 2012
4:35 pm
I have heard that the changes to Medicaid in Georgia will cost the state an additional $2 to $4 billion a year. Can you say additional cuts to education to pay for the people to sorry to get their own insurance,
Linda
March 14th, 2012
4:52 pm
The Obama adm.’s 106 new major fed. regulations have added $46 B per year in new costs for us American–4 times the number & more than 5 times the cost of major regulation issued under Bush’s first 3 years. These DO NOT include regulations still being written for Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, Obamacare & the EPA’s war on air/global weirdness.
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/03/red-tape-rising-obama-era-regulation-at-the-three-year-mark
And we wonder why we have such a weak economy & high unemployment.
md
March 14th, 2012
4:52 pm
This is just the tip of the iceberg……to those that think the ACA has been implemented, they may want to read up on why the States took it to court in the first place……..because the administrative costs to implement are the burden of the States. And if one hasn’t been paying attention, the States are cash poor…………if the Supremes don’t strike it down, look for mega pain to be inflicted within the States, especially those that require balanced budgets.
carlosgvv
March 14th, 2012
4:52 pm
Tiberius – 4:32
In that case, it’s not the ROLE of Govt. to interfere in the profits of private trial lawyers. So, stop complaining about the “obsene profits they make off malpractice suits”. That won’t solve the problem either.
Jefferson
March 14th, 2012
4:53 pm
Fund up and get the ball rolling.
Jefferson
March 14th, 2012
4:54 pm
It is the law, you should show some respect for the law.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
4:59 pm
“It is the law, you should show some respect for the law.”
Only myrmidons blindly show respect for the law, especially a bad one.
DebbieDoRight
March 14th, 2012
5:01 pm
Kyle you do know that “Obamacare” isn’t in effect yet right? You write your article as if it’s been in effect for the past 3 years when in essence it hasn’t even started.
You can’t give a full accounting of ANYTHING until it starts.
Accounting 101 — you’re welcome.
Linda
March 14th, 2012
5:05 pm
Jefferson@4:54, Republicans will make you liberals a deal. We’ll show respect for the law if you guys will show respect for the constitution. Since that deal will wipe out Obamacare & half of the departments & agencies in DC & 75% of the laws congress has passed, our deal should also solve the deficit problem, the unemployment problem & all of our economic problems.
What do you say? Handshake?
DebbieDoRight
March 14th, 2012
5:05 pm
But it’s OK for the trial lawyers lobby to keep being the major contributor to the Democrat party, because it’s OK to continue the obscene profits they make off of malpractice suits, right, carlos
You forgot to mention the person who was injured from a doctor’s “mistake” that totally ruined their lives and therefore can no longer work. They benefit the more from a malpractice suit than anyone else.
If you get rid of Socail Security (Ron Paul); get rid of Medicaire (Every republican in history) AND get rid of Medicaide (again ALL republcians); what do people have left who are hurt through no fault of their own?
Charity? HA! yeah. that’ll work.
DebbieDoRight
March 14th, 2012
5:08 pm
Only myrmidons blindly show respect for the law, especially a bad one.
Spoken like the next great Underground Militia “Take Back Our Country By Killing Innocent People Cause They’re Necessary Fodder” President.
Tim McVeigh would be proud….
DannyX
March 14th, 2012
5:11 pm
“Looks like you have switched to a blog that actually respects others opinions and does not practice personal attacks on the blogger instead. Are not conservative much nicer then you libs on other blogs.”
Lol td! Lil Barry, Do What??? and Tiberius, are a bunch of sweethearts. (I do love Dusty however, she’s my fav.)
Hillbilly D
March 14th, 2012
5:15 pm
AmVet @ 2:54
Like you I’m also opposed to Obamacare. I think a golden opportunity was lost to actually do something about the healthcare system. This should be called the Insurance Industry Relief Act, in my opinion, because that’s who is going to benefit the most from it. It’ll probably be another 20-30 years before an opportunity rolls around again.
@@ 3:01
Good for you but in that situation you have the option of shopping around. When you’re sick, you don’t have the time or the luxury of being able to shop around. In the event you get rolled in somewhere on a stretcher, you don’t have any options on anything, you go where they take you and that’s that.
I would warn people to be very careful with those “high-deductable” policies. A person I know had one of those and when it came time to use it, they found out, way deep in the fine print, that it covers in-patient only. In today’s medical system, you can spend hundreds of thousands of dollars, without ever being an in-patient. Buyer beware and don’t trust your agent.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
5:17 pm
“You forgot to mention the person who was injured from a doctor’s “mistake” that totally ruined their lives and therefore can no longer work. They benefit the more from a malpractice suit than anyone else. ”
You forgot that no one is talking about eliminating malpractice lawsuits, but merely limiting the exorbitant pain and suffering costs that are over and above the cost of care.
But if it makes your faux poutrage read any better, DebbieDo Right, go for it.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 14th, 2012
5:17 pm
Heaven help is if the Supreme Court doesn’t.
AmVet
March 14th, 2012
5:18 pm
DannyX, all I had to do was show up here the day before yesterday and Do What went absolutely berserk. Talk about throwing tantrums. To his credit, the host deep sixed him in no time flat.
Thank goodness,as a conservative, he actually respected others opinions and didn’t practice personal attacks on bloggers or it would have been really ugly! LOL…
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
5:20 pm
“Spoken like the next great Underground Militia “Take Back Our Country By Killing Innocent People Cause They’re Necessary Fodder” President.
Tim McVeigh would be proud….
”
Spoken like the “I was just following orders because it was the law” National Socialist hack that you are, DebbieDoRight.
Adolph would be so proud of you. . .
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 14th, 2012
5:22 pm
What a surprise, Obozo lied.
carlosgvv
March 14th, 2012
5:24 pm
Medical insurance premiums keep rising each year. At some point in the future, it will take every cent of your salary just to pay these premiums. So, Govt. will have to intervene before then and that is what Obamacare is all about. The Medical Industry knows this and will squeeze every dollar they can out of the American people before being forced to abandon their obsene and greed driven profit madness.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 14th, 2012
5:25 pm
What do people have left who are hurt through no fault of their own?
————————-
Please explain how that creates a claim on the property of the taxpaying public.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 14th, 2012
5:26 pm
carlosgvv: Medical insurance premiums keep rising each year.
————————-
If you find health insurance to be a bad deal, don’t buy it. Duh.
Gm
March 14th, 2012
5:33 pm
Linda, Dusty
Please put your American flags down, I dont know which one is worst, right wing nuts who hate other Americans getting help or the terrorist groups.
What a bunch of hypocrites bush spent billions to build up Iraq and you right wing jobs never said a word, but when the President tries to spend money on America you Anti Americans come out the wood work, let me guess because its Obama polices wink, wink.
Whats amazing Linda represent why no one cares or respect the rep women they love to be kicked around stomped around and put in their place by rep men( see Newt, Rush actions) Thank God this President has stood up for women or we would be back in the stone age like Linda would love, wow
md
March 14th, 2012
5:41 pm
Gm…..what exactly is the difference, spending wise, between obama’s 1T stimulus plan and Bush’s 1T war?
If one is honest with themselves, they know it’s nothing.
Now, regardless of which spouse did the spending, the bill is now due……
Gm
March 14th, 2012
5:45 pm
The difference is Obama saved American lives, billions were spent to keep Americans from being thrown in the streets, unemployment, auto, housing, and it created millions of jobs.
Ask yourself this: What did America get out of the billions spent in IraQ
@@
March 14th, 2012
5:45 pm
Wuh OH!!!!
AmVet–DannyX, all I had to do was show up here the day before yesterday and Do What went absolutely berserk. Talk about throwing tantrums. To his credit, the host deep sixed him in no time flat.
Kyle Wingfield — 2. As always, be forewarned: Anyone who posts comments gloating about Do What and Trash Superstar will also be put in moderation.
AMVET NEEDS TO BE DEEP SIXED!
Flattery To his credit, the host deep sixed him in no time flat. should get him nowhere. Rules are rules.
schnirt
@@
March 14th, 2012
5:48 pm
Based on his 5:11, DannyX needs to be deep sixed too!!!
Let’s get ‘er done.
md
March 14th, 2012
5:50 pm
“Ask yourself this: What did America get out of the billions spent in IraQ”
Actually, about the same number of jobs…….private contractors, factory workers, supply deliveries, etc etc
As I said, monetarily about the same……they were both stimulus spending.
@@
March 14th, 2012
5:57 pm
Panetta and Dempsey are concerned about Syria’s chemical weapons!!??!!
Hmmmmm
Annexed to Duelfer’s 2004 report on Iraq’s WMD programs — and largely ignored by the establishment media — the translation is posted on the CIA’s website.
Water under the bridge or Iraq’s WMDs to Syria….complements of Jay Rockefeller’s (D) treason?
The GOPscare vs Obamacare
March 14th, 2012
6:00 pm
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
Sounds like a WINNER TO ME.
Protect me and give me affordable care.
PPACA reforms certain aspects of the private health insurance industry and public health insurance programs, increases insurance coverage of pre-existing conditions, expands access to insurance to over 30 million Americans, and increases projected national medical spending while lowering projected Medicare spending.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
March 14th, 2012
6:05 pm
“The difference is Obama saved American lives,”
Cite?
“billions were spent to keep Americans from being thrown in the streets, unemployment, auto, housing, and it created millions of jobs.”
And yet, it really didn’t as unemployment is still well above the 8% it wasn’t supposed to go above.
Ooops!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
March 14th, 2012
6:08 pm
The GOPscare vs Obamacare: give me affordable care.
———-
Back in the old days, people paid for things the wanted or needed.
Welcome to Obozo’s Handout Nation.
Hillbilly D
March 14th, 2012
6:10 pm
increases insurance coverage of pre-existing conditions,
But will people be able to afford the premiums? If they can’t, might as well not be there. Given insurance rates at present, which are tough for the average person to afford, if they don’t have some form of coverage through their job and that they are bound to increase after this, a large number of people will probably just have to pay the fine and take their chances. Sort of like they do now, without the fine.
@@
March 14th, 2012
6:14 pm
Hillbilly:
Our policy covers both in-patient and out-patient. It works in conjunction with an HSA. First time in all the years we’ve had it that MY deductible has been purt near depleted. That’s the reason I’m at war. It’s MY money they’re wheelin’ & dealin’ with.
I DO love a good fight.
Linda
March 14th, 2012
6:15 pm
Gm@5:33, Your prospective is warped. No one hates “other Americans getting help.”
Bush did not spend one cent on Iraq that congress did not approve, including the Democratically-controlled congress during his second term.
I said more than “a word.” I emailed Bush & asked him not to authorize certain spending.
The difference you fail to grasp is that the Bush adm. added $5 T to the natl. debt in 8 years & the Obama adm. has added $5 T to the natl. debt in 3 years. The Obama adm. spent as much money on the economic stimulus bill that BOTH WARS had cost us as of 2/09, almost $1 T that actually increased unemployment by over 2%.
“When the President tries to spend money on America” that we do NOT HAVE, borrowing it from China or printing it out of thin air, pro-Americans & patriots should come “out of the wood work” & that should include you, IF you care about the future of our country & that of your children. Don’t you understand that the debt we ALREADY have is destroying us, that it’s the greatest threat to our national security?
If you think Obama is merely a Democrat, your head is in the clouds. Obama is a progressive & I’m totally against their agenda & their motives. Obama is no blacker than I am 6 months out of the year & his blood is the same color as mine.
Obama has not stood up for women. He is USING women for his progressive/political agenda. Nobody, whether its Dems. or Reps., will kick me, stomp me, put me in my place, or USE me as a pawn to further their political agenda, especially over pills that cost $9 per month.
@@
March 14th, 2012
6:21 pm
Nobody, whether its Dems. or Reps., will kick me, stomp me, put me in my place, or USE me as a pawn to further their political agenda, especially over pills that cost $9 per month.
Are we allowed to talk about cheap women?
Linda
March 14th, 2012
6:22 pm
Gm@5:45, Created jobs? There has not been ONE MONTH that the unemployment rate has been lower during the 3 years of the Obama adm. than it was during the 8 years of the Bush adm.
The Obama adm. tries to deceive people with limited cognitive skills by rattling off the number of “jobs created or saved,” totally ignoring the number of jobs LOST.
Now, the Labor Dept. is corrupt. The number of people employed has decreased, the number of people unemployed has increased, but the unemployment rate decreases, after being “seasonally adjusted” overnight.