In October, the Obama administration acknowledged that the portion of Obamacare that contributed the most deficit “reduction” — the CLASS Act, which created a new long-term care entitlement and allegedly was going to reduce deficits by $86 billion between 2012 and 2021 — was unworkable. The House this month voted to repeal the law, while the White House seeks a way to fix it. But the clear bottom line was that more than two-thirds of the $124 billion in promised deficit “savings” during these 10 years was unlikely ever to materialize.
The White House’s fiscal year 2013 budget adds $111 billion in exchange spending between 2014 and 2021, with even more spending to come in future years. … In 2021 alone, the difference between the two budgets is almost $20 billion, implying that exchange spending will be up by over $200 billion in the decade following 2021.
For the math-challenged: Subtracting $86 billion and $111 billion from an alleged deficit reduction of $124 billion equals a deficit increase of $73 billion. And this is the best-case scenario, as Roy goes on to explain:
If businesses do what the new health law clearly incentivizes them to do, exchange spending could be up by over $2 trillion in the decade following 2021.
The incentive to which Roy refers is the fact that Obamacare makes it relatively cheaper for employers to dump their health coverage, pay a fine and let employees use federal subsidies to buy health insurance in the federally mandated exchanges.
The costs for the most reckless piece of federal law in at least a generation only continue to rise, just as all of us who opposed Obamacare predicted. And the forecasts are only going to get worse with each passing year, if only because we are now burning through the years when Obamacare front-loaded new tax revenues before really adding new spending; that was another of the budgetary ruses Democrats used to create the fiction that Obamacare was fiscally responsible.
It is increasingly clear that taking the law completely off the books is the only way to avoid a true fiscal catastrophe.
– By Kyle Wingfield