2012 Tuesday: Michigan is the show-me state for Santorum
Our unscientific poll last week found that, by about a 3-to-2 margin, readers believe Newt Gingrich would be hurt more by losing next week’s Georgia primary than Mitt Romney would by losing today’s primary in his native Michigan. Today, I’m going to suggest the person with the most riding on one of these states is neither Gingrich nor Romney, but Rick Santorum.
If one believes the “Mitt Romney vs. the Not-Romneys” narrative of this GOP primary, it follows that Santorum must buck the trend of all the other short-term front-runners if he wants to be a serious threat to topple Romney in the end. There is little reason to believe Santorum has risen to his current No. 1 spot by mere force of personality or policies: His personality and policies didn’t keep him out of fifth and even sixth place for much of the race, and they haven’t changed during the past two months when he became a top-tier candidate (or survivor, depending on how you view him). So, we need to see if he can buck the trend.
The trend to which I refer actually is two-fold: Before the primaries began, a Not-Romney front-runner — Rick Perry or Herman Cain — rose to the top, only to be brought down by his own actions. Perry’s debate gaffes and Cain’s increasingly apparent lack of preparedness on topics such as foreign policy. (I continue to believe Cain’s missteps on this front had more to do with his downturn in popularity than did the allegations of sexual harassment and an affair, although the latter did finally push him out of the race.) For both Perry and Cain, the candidate’s undoing was his own fault.
Once the primaries began, a different — and, for Santorum now, a more relevant — trend emerged: One candidate would win a primary and gain (or re-gain) the front-runner status, only to be brought back to the pack. These downturns usually followed a barrage of negative advertising: e.g., Gingrich’s attacks on Romney in South Carolina, and Romney’s returning the favor big-time in Florida. (I do not place Santorum’s win in Iowa in the context of this trend, because he wasn’t actually declared the winner over Romney until weeks after the fact.)
Now we have Santorum, still riding the momentum of his triple wins on Feb. 7 in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, and trying to prove in Michigan that he can really hang with Romney. Opinion polls forecast a narrow win for Romney or a narrow win for Santorum, depending on which one you view, after each man has taken a turn leading the state by a healthy margin. Gingrich and Ron Paul have effectively conceded Michigan, so it’s a two-man race.
Once again, Romney has used his campaign’s financial advantage to blister Santorum with negative ads, largely about his spending record in Congress. But unlike Gingrich in Florida, and Iowa before that, Santorum has not withered. At least, not if you believe the polls.
By late tonight, we’ll know how close the election really was and, barring a ballot controversy, who won it. It remains to be seen if a narrow loss by Santorum would cast enough doubt on his candidacy to put Romney back in front or if — as Santorum’s campaign staff is already spinning it — merely running close in Romney’s home state would be enough of a victory. This much, however, certainly is true: Eventually, if one of these Not-Romneys is going to be the nominee, he’s going to have to take the lead and hold it.
Santorum may have won the (non-binding) primary in Missouri. But for a lot of GOP voters, Michigan is more of a show-me state.
(Note: I will be on the road today following the Gingrich campaign in Northwest Georgia, so my blogging and responding to your comments will be sporadic.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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412 comments Add your comment
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:47 pm
Bookman: The heartlessness of Ga. anti-abortion bill
Oh the irony of Bookman.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:50 pm
“The Constitution also gives us the right to question ANY candidate for ANY reason.
Sorry, if the Constitution is an inconvenience for you.’
You truly are a moron, Do What?? No one has said there isn’t a right to question a candidate, but since this is a blog where people come to express their opinions (even those rooted in ignorance such as yours), it is sometimes valuable to read the thought processes of some who make such sweeping statements as Joe the Prophet makes regarding Romney and his faith.
I have never, and will never (because I know the Constitution much better than you could ever hope to do) deny him any right to say what he feels. But unlike you, I strive to learn from people rather than judge without knowing. (And yes, I already know all I need to know about you, and have judged you accordingly)
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:52 pm
“You truly are a moron”
And the name calling continues. Will Tiberius get banned from yet ANOTHER blog? We shall see.
md
February 29th, 2012
2:52 pm
So Jo, you say you come here to talk about abortion?
Well, we had that discussion here too…..a few floors down. It goes round and round and round….so that’s all I got on that subject.
How about Hamas pulling out of Damascus? Wonder if Quatar will have a positive effect?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:53 pm
UGA @ 2:44.
Not a bad start. I wish there weren’t so many restrictions to it, however.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:54 pm
“But unlike you, I strive to learn from people rather than judge without knowing.”
BUT WAIT!!!! THERE’S MORE!!!!!!
You truly are a moron, Do What??
OH THE IRONY!!!!! OH THE HYPOCRISY!!!!!!!!!!
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:55 pm
“And the name calling continues.”
Then I suggest you stop being an (insert your own insult here) so that it might stop.
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
2:55 pm
Tiberius….Restrictions to what?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:56 pm
“OH THE IRONY!!!!! OH THE HYPOCRISY!!!!!!!!!!”
OH, THE SELECTIVE PARSING!!!!!!!
Dusty
February 29th, 2012
2:57 pm
Josef,
How nice to have you here!! I miss the occasional trips to the light fantastic on special occasions. Can hardly sneak in any indications of poetry inclination here either.
Kyle lays an honest road for us to travel although we wander off as usual. I hope you will visit here often.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
3:04 pm
UGA, the link said that they are restricting it to certain counties to be named later, and subject to funding.
Cast in Jello, rather than stone, imo.
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
3:05 pm
Tiberius…..Oh I agree.
Dusty
February 29th, 2012
3:06 pm
Wrong answer!!! No winners yet.
It was not Larry, Curly; & Moe. Nope! Not sent to Hawaii either. Keep trying!
——
No, Do What???, I did not get to hear Gingrich speak at a private school. Just knew that Kyle was going to hear him.
josef
February 29th, 2012
3:09 pm
Do What
I don’t know if Tiberius was banned by al Shariff Torquemada or not, but he was a burr under the Imam’s saddle which, imuo, is a good thing!
DUSTY
Aw, thankee ye kindly ma’am…
md
You-know-who who thinks I’m a closet conservative is in over there and I’m trying to remember my training as a Southern Gentleman of Culture and Breeding and not to say what I really think…speaking of Southern Gentlemen, what’s the news on Hillbilly?
And Hamas pulling out of Damascus…that has been an interesting little twist. I guess the next thing will be a Jimmy Carter inspired al Het! About the only good thing I can see coming out of this so far is (hopefully) a discrediting of Hezbollah and the loss of an Iranian surrogate base…
md
February 29th, 2012
3:15 pm
HD pops in from time to time…..always the gentleman.
Can’t say I don’t miss some of those over at Jays, but I will no longer lend credence to his shenanigans. He is part of the problem, not part of the cure.
And I have no idea what Hamas is up to, unless they finally see the writing on the wall….but I doubt that.
josef
February 29th, 2012
3:20 pm
DUSTY
Not sure, but would that be Danny Alighieri you talkin’ about?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
3:20 pm
Hiya, josef! Welcome!
We’re usually much more civilized over here, but Do What?? needs to be slapped down for gross ignorance.
Or maybe he’ll quiet down once he’s in a drunken stupor.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
3:24 pm
“Then I suggest you stop being an (insert your own insult here) so that it might stop.”
Or perhaps you could grow up and stop acting like a 2 year old.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
3:25 pm
“We’re usually much more civilized over here, but Do What?? needs to be slapped down for gross ignorance.”
Geez, how many times can you contradict yourself?
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
3:25 pm
“Can’t say I don’t miss some of those over at Jays, but I will no longer lend credence to his shenanigans. He is part of the problem, not part of the cure.”
Couldn’t agree more.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
3:29 pm
“Or perhaps you could grow up and stop acting like a 2 year old.”
Says the blogger who calls me by a different name despite being corrected, parses comments to try to make false points, and never backs up his opinion with facts.
josef
February 29th, 2012
3:30 pm
Tiberius, Say What…
Dusty
February 29th, 2012
3:35 pm
Josef, @3:20
Whoops! Not Danny Alighieri. I won’t give you a clue ’cause you will remember three famous young men in no time as described by another famous one. . But..one little clue. They are not recent!!
Hillbilly D comes and gives us words of wisdom. He had me smiling yesterday when I asked him if he were going to hear Gingrich. He answered in reference to meeting with all politicians. It was a good one.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
3:38 pm
“Says the blogger who calls me by a different name despite being corrected, parses comments to try to make false points, and never backs up his opinion with facts.”
I’m not the only one who knows who you really are, Dave R. In fact, md said the same thing a few days ago and I remember you attacking her for it.
Grow up.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
3:43 pm
Tiberius
I’m done arguing with you. I don’t want to get banned from Kyle’s blog.
josef
February 29th, 2012
3:44 pm
DUSTY
Duh…Meshach, Shadrach and Abednego…
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
3:48 pm
“In fact, md said the same thing a few days ago and I remember you attacking her for it. ”
And yet intelligent people consider what I did “correcting”. Only the uninformed or sensitive consider telling people my blog name and asking them to please use it as “attacking”.
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
3:49 pm
A 40 year musical legend dies today. RIP Davy Jones. It barely makes the front page.
A crack addict in Whitney Houston dies and it becomes a two week parade.
A great sign of the times.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
3:50 pm
Sorry that I won’t be able to converse with you tonight, josef. I’ve always enjoyed our conversations. However, I must get ready to go out for most of the evening.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
3:52 pm
” Only the uninformed or sensitive consider telling people my blog name and asking them to please use it as “attacking”.”
Yeah, the only problem with your statement involves the fact that you’ve called me both stupid and a moron.
Again, I’m done arguing with you. Grow up.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
3:55 pm
Focus, Do What??, focus.
You accused me of “attacking” md. I simply pointed out that I did not, and that you were wrong (again).
You’ve proven (once again) why I have used such names for you.
Linda
February 29th, 2012
3:56 pm
Sandra Fluke was invited to testify before congress this week by Pelosi about how students at religious universities are suffering without free contraceptive coverage from insurance companies. Fluke, a third-year law student at Georgetown, testified, “Without insurance coverage, contraception…can cost a woman over $3000 during law school…That’s practically an entire summer’s salary. 40% of the female students at Georgetown Law reported to us that they struggle financially as a result of this policy…one…standing at the pharmacy counter…and she had to turn and walk away because she couldn’t afford that prescription…”
http://www.whatthefolly.com/2012/02/23/transcript-sandra-fluke-testifies-on-why-women-should-be-allowed-access-to-contraception-and-reproductive-health-care/
Birth control pills cost $9 per month at Walmart & condoms cost a buck a piece at the dollar stores. Law school lasts 9 months for 3 years. That’s almost 4 X per day. When do these students have time to study? Tuition & living expenses cost $64 K per year at Georgetown. I’m crying a river for these victims. They are soooooooooooo entitled to their rights in the constitution.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
3:57 pm
“You accused me of “attacking” md. I simply pointed out that I did not, and that you were wrong (again).”
Guess I’ll wait for md to show back up.
“You’ve proven (once again) why I have used such names for you.”
Because you’re a child? You were beaten by your parents?
Dusty
February 29th, 2012
3:59 pm
We have a WINNER!!
JOSEF gets to shake the hand that shook the hand….Yep…Shadrack, Meschack and Abednego!!!
We are doing a study about those three and Daniel. Talk about tough decisions! Whoooeee…
Anyway, as the blog seems to have some children here today, how are your students? And all the much maligned APS teachers?
josef
February 29th, 2012
4:02 pm
DUSTY
Students are great as always, teachers are plugging along…we’ve got a new one brewing with the redistricting…testing season is upon us, so you know MY state of mind…
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
4:03 pm
“Because you’re a child? You were beaten by your parents?”
No,because they are TRUE.
And repeatedly responding to someone after repeatedly writing that you were “done with” them is a sign of mental instability.
Just sayin’ !
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
4:04 pm
Linda, re: your 3:56. She (Sandra Fluke) was on the Michael Medved show the other day, and was appropriately eviscerated by the host and the callers.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
4:05 pm
“And repeatedly responding to someone after repeatedly writing that you were “done with” them is a sign of mental instability.”
tick…tick…tick….
Dusty
February 29th, 2012
4:22 pm
My goodness, JOSEF..
Redistricting and now testing season! The best cliche’ I have is : hang in there!
Other than that, the flowering trees are fabulous and forsythia is a fountain of yellow yearnings. The little house wrens will soon be back. Now that’s good news!!
josef
February 29th, 2012
4:29 pm
DUSTY
Our peachtree is in bloom, forsythia and azaleas out all over, redbuds a budding, maples flowering…already started puttering about the yard to see what we want to do this year now that Unmentionable’s retired. Been keeping our eyes out for the wrens. Haven’t heard from Richelieu yet (the Mockingbird whose call sounds just like that!)
*****
Okay, better run. Enjoyed the visit. My warmest regards to Hillbilly….
Linda
February 29th, 2012
4:30 pm
Kyle will never go out of town again. His blog is now the Tiberius Do What Blog.
Will I get into trouble for calling 911 to send a posse out looking for Kyle? Has anyone even bothered to report him missing?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
4:36 pm
Then add something substantial to change the conversation, Linda.
Maybe it will get that one-note wonder off his or her crazy train.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
4:37 pm
“His blog is now the Tiberius Do What Blog.”
And like I stated, I’m done arguing with DaveR.
Michael H. Smith
February 29th, 2012
4:40 pm
DannyX
February 28th, 2012
10:18 pm
DannyX, you will never get it. Jesus could have just as easily said to a poor man it would be easier for a camel to go through the “eye of the needle” (gate) than it will be for you to enter the kingdom of God if you cannot give up that load of pride you tote in your heart that keeps you entering his kingdom. The meaning and results would be exactly the same. Stop coveting the wealth of others, it is blinding you. It will eventually consume you like a fire as well.
Dusty
February 29th, 2012
4:47 pm
Linda,
Round up the posse’!! Maybe Kyle is still sitting in traffic on the expressway.
I’m sure we will soon receive a stirring account of the Gingrich adventure. Gonna be good!
Speaking of “stirring”, I better get going and save my family from starvation. Yes!! (Which cans shall I open?)
Michael H. Smith
February 29th, 2012
4:51 pm
Kyle, save us… from us!
Linda
February 29th, 2012
4:59 pm
Dusty@4:47, Speaking of “stirring” & starvation, do you have a good recipe to share? That should teach Kyle! We’ll turn this blog into recipe-sharing!
Wonder is those above will argue which end of the can to open.
md
February 29th, 2012
5:14 pm
“Guess I’ll wait for md to show back up.”
Well I’m here…..so the question is, what purpose does it serve to continue to badger another over a moniker?
Debate the issues and leave the personal stuff at the door.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
5:30 pm
“Debate the issues and leave the personal stuff at the door.”
Tell that to Tiberius.
getalife
February 29th, 2012
5:37 pm
willard is getting ripped to pieces.
Our President will serve four more years.
Stop whining and get back to work.