2012 Tuesday: Michigan is the show-me state for Santorum
Our unscientific poll last week found that, by about a 3-to-2 margin, readers believe Newt Gingrich would be hurt more by losing next week’s Georgia primary than Mitt Romney would by losing today’s primary in his native Michigan. Today, I’m going to suggest the person with the most riding on one of these states is neither Gingrich nor Romney, but Rick Santorum.
If one believes the “Mitt Romney vs. the Not-Romneys” narrative of this GOP primary, it follows that Santorum must buck the trend of all the other short-term front-runners if he wants to be a serious threat to topple Romney in the end. There is little reason to believe Santorum has risen to his current No. 1 spot by mere force of personality or policies: His personality and policies didn’t keep him out of fifth and even sixth place for much of the race, and they haven’t changed during the past two months when he became a top-tier candidate (or survivor, depending on how you view him). So, we need to see if he can buck the trend.
The trend to which I refer actually is two-fold: Before the primaries began, a Not-Romney front-runner — Rick Perry or Herman Cain — rose to the top, only to be brought down by his own actions. Perry’s debate gaffes and Cain’s increasingly apparent lack of preparedness on topics such as foreign policy. (I continue to believe Cain’s missteps on this front had more to do with his downturn in popularity than did the allegations of sexual harassment and an affair, although the latter did finally push him out of the race.) For both Perry and Cain, the candidate’s undoing was his own fault.
Once the primaries began, a different — and, for Santorum now, a more relevant — trend emerged: One candidate would win a primary and gain (or re-gain) the front-runner status, only to be brought back to the pack. These downturns usually followed a barrage of negative advertising: e.g., Gingrich’s attacks on Romney in South Carolina, and Romney’s returning the favor big-time in Florida. (I do not place Santorum’s win in Iowa in the context of this trend, because he wasn’t actually declared the winner over Romney until weeks after the fact.)
Now we have Santorum, still riding the momentum of his triple wins on Feb. 7 in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, and trying to prove in Michigan that he can really hang with Romney. Opinion polls forecast a narrow win for Romney or a narrow win for Santorum, depending on which one you view, after each man has taken a turn leading the state by a healthy margin. Gingrich and Ron Paul have effectively conceded Michigan, so it’s a two-man race.
Once again, Romney has used his campaign’s financial advantage to blister Santorum with negative ads, largely about his spending record in Congress. But unlike Gingrich in Florida, and Iowa before that, Santorum has not withered. At least, not if you believe the polls.
By late tonight, we’ll know how close the election really was and, barring a ballot controversy, who won it. It remains to be seen if a narrow loss by Santorum would cast enough doubt on his candidacy to put Romney back in front or if — as Santorum’s campaign staff is already spinning it — merely running close in Romney’s home state would be enough of a victory. This much, however, certainly is true: Eventually, if one of these Not-Romneys is going to be the nominee, he’s going to have to take the lead and hold it.
Santorum may have won the (non-binding) primary in Missouri. But for a lot of GOP voters, Michigan is more of a show-me state.
(Note: I will be on the road today following the Gingrich campaign in Northwest Georgia, so my blogging and responding to your comments will be sporadic.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
412 comments Add your comment
@@
February 29th, 2012
1:27 pm
Tiberius:
You conveyed your like for Christie…followed by Jan Brewer and Bob McDonnell. I don’t personally dislike any of the three, but I’m wondering…do you LIKE Jan Brewer?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:29 pm
I like them all, @@. I think they’re all fine examples of good governors.
@@
February 29th, 2012
1:32 pm
I like them all, @@.
Okay! Do you think Governor Brewer comes across as sharp, intellectually speaking.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:41 pm
Not the most articulate speaker on the planet, no.
Can’t rate her intelligence, however, as I have had no dealings with her.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:46 pm
“It is, as long as stupid people keep believing the lies.”
Yes, you keep believing Romney’s lies.
“And you smell like 5 day-old road kill. ”
Ok, I figured you to be a child.
“So how can you think that Republicans in the House and Senate (should both become a majority in 2013) will actually curb spending with a Republican President? After all, that didn’t happen the last time.”
Because this time a lot of the RINO’s were kicked out of office/resigned. See: Spector/Snowe etc.
Long live the Tea Party, which you most likely hate.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:47 pm
How many terms did Romney serve in Mass?
What significant bills has Romney signed into law that have actually helped people?
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:48 pm
“Not the most articulate speaker on the planet, no.”
Neither is Romney, but you have no problem with him.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:50 pm
“Ok, I figured you to be a child.”
Says the blogger who keeps calling me a different name.
“Long live the Tea Party, which you most likely hate.”
I was a member of the Tea Party before you even heard of it, Do What?? You might know it (what am I saying, you don’t know anything!) as the Libertarian Party. Some of us aren’t Johnny-come-lately’s to this rodeo.
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
1:50 pm
Do what? Read for yourself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Mitt_Romney
@@
February 29th, 2012
1:51 pm
Not the most articulate speaker on the planet, no.
Neither is Romney. In fact, whenever I listen to him, I”m amazed by how much he sounds like Governor Brewer.
Up against a smooth talker like Obama, Romney’s gonna look like Porky Pig.
======================================
Stocks Slide as Bernanke Disappoints
“People want the punch bowl to be there forever,” said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading. “[This selloff’s] because of the lack of what [Bernanke] said.”
“People have had an excuse to buy for the last three months and that excuse has been free money…people are looking for more,” added Saluzzi.
The market’s been hitching a ride on the government’s gravy train?
By Margaret Chadbourn | WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB), the biggest source of money for US home loans, said on Wednesday it would seek $4.6 billion in additional federal aid after reporting a fourth-quarter loss.
Unbelievable.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:52 pm
“How many terms did Romney serve in Mass?”
One. Why?
“What significant bills has Romney signed into law that have actually helped people?”
Google is your friend. That would be G-O-O-G-L-E, if you have any trouble spelling it.
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
1:53 pm
@@….Up against Romney…Hussein is going to look like the biggest liar on earth!
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:54 pm
“Neither is Romney. In fact, whenever I listen to him, I”m amazed by how much he sounds like Governor Brewer.
Up against a smooth talker like Obama, Romney’s gonna look like Porky Pig.”
Then you’re clearly not listening to Mitt Romney when he speaks. I believe it is called “selective hearing”. Practiced by people with preconceived choices and notions.
md
February 29th, 2012
1:59 pm
“Under an agreement reached in direct talks in Beijing last week, North Korea has agreed to allow the return of nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, and has agreed to implement a moratorium on long-range missile tests, nuclear tests, and nuclear activities at Yongbyon, including uranium enrichment activities, the State Department said. In return, the United States will provide North Korea with a large food aid package.”
I guess the wife is as big a sucker as the husband……haven’t we seen this before?
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:00 pm
“One. Why?”
Ok, that’s not a long time. Like I said, he’s 9-16 in races.
“Google is your friend. That would be G-O-O-G-L-E, if you have any trouble spelling it.”
Ok, so nothing.
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
2:01 pm
Do What? Are you too lazy to work and see for yourself or do you want the “gubament” to do all of the work for you?
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:02 pm
“Says the blogger who keeps calling me a different name.”
You were outed by md and Lil Barry. Also, you never denied being Dave R. You also claimed to have served in office, and as I recall, KUTGF outed you on Bookman’s blog and you went on a tear.
Face it dude, you’re a liar.
@@
February 29th, 2012
2:02 pm
As governor, Romney was another HuckFEE, which are….by another name….were tax increases.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:03 pm
“You might know it (what am I saying, you don’t know anything!) as the Libertarian Party. ”
Ah yes, more lies from Dave R.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:03 pm
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!
The Libertarians don’t look too kindly at Romney the RINO.
@@
February 29th, 2012
2:04 pm
My thoughts aren’t transferring onto the screen very well. I’m exhausted and OUT.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:04 pm
UGA 1999
I can multitask. You should be more concerned about the bad direction UGA is going in.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:05 pm
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!
I’ve seen you attack more conservatives on this blog than I have with you and left wingers. I wonder why that is?
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
2:07 pm
Do What? And you should be more concerned about the bad direction our country is going.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:08 pm
“And you should be more concerned about the bad direction our country is going.”
I am.
BTW, why are you getting testy with me? We’re usually on the same page.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:12 pm
“You were outed by md and Lil Barry.”
I remember them asking a question, yet getting the same answer I give you. And yet, I don’t see them continuing the practice of using another name when addressing me. Maybe they’re just more mature than you.
“Also, you never denied being Dave R.”
Nor have I denied being Bigfoot. Nor have I denied being responsible for sinking the Titanic. What’s your point?
“You also claimed to have served in office, and as I recall, KUTGF outed you on Bookman’s blog and you went on a tear.”
And maybe there might just be more than one former elected official on a blog?
The bottom line is, Do What?? that people use different names for different reasons, and the host rightly protects the identities of those who blog under an obviously different name, foremost of which is PRIVACY. Now, for that reason, I am, and will remain, Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate! to you and everyone else on his blog. If you do not like this, maybe a little friendly e-mail note to Mr. Wingfield will help clear this up for you.
Are we clear on that, son?
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
2:15 pm
Do What??? I am not being testy.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:15 pm
“I’ve seen you attack more conservatives on this blog than I have with you and left wingers. I wonder why that is?”
Because you have no concept of reading comprehension?
Lately, one ONE SUBJECT ONLY, I have complained against the dichotomy of people who claim to believe in freedom, equality and the U.S. Constitution yet do not support equal rights nor freedom for all.
I do not believe that constitutes ‘attacking” conservatives more than liberals. Except in your mind, of course.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:18 pm
“As governor, Romney was another HuckFEE, which are….by another name….were tax increases.’
The difference, of course, being that Romney was a governor of the bluest of blue states, with a legislature that could override any veto of his without breaking a sweat, and a requirement for a balanced budget, while Huckabee was not.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:21 pm
““You might know it (what am I saying, you don’t know anything!) as the Libertarian Party. ”
Ah yes, more lies from Dave R.”
My “Libertarian of the Year” award I am staring at right now would render your opinion (as usual) rather incorrect, Do What???
As does the “Backbone Award” from the local Republican party right below it.
Shame you don’t have either of these on your wall.
William Smith
February 29th, 2012
2:25 pm
Romney didn’t win Michigan Santorum lost it. He never knew that to open your mouth can without careful planning prove you are crazy. After hearing Santorum’s on issues I find him to not be conservative but out in left field and left his glove in the dugout. Everything from birth control, education, and seperation of church and state. I consider myself to be not liberal or conservative. These issues are not left or right but common sense. Me and my wife can’t afford as many children as he has. My father worked as a young man in the coal mines of West Virginia so I could get a college education. I don’t want a preacher,rabbi, or any other religious person telling me how to think,worship, and serve God. Now if he had only kept his mouth shut about these issues in Michigan he would have won.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:25 pm
“Because you have no concept of reading comprehension?”
There you go, diverting attention again. I’ve noticed that you’ve called people stupid multiple times. Maybe Wingfield can clear that up as well.
“I do not believe that constitutes ‘attacking” conservatives more than liberals. Except in your mind, of course.”
Calling others “stupid” because they don’t see things the way you do, comes to mind.
Keep trying, TiberiusDaveR.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:26 pm
“My “Libertarian of the Year” award I am staring at right now would render your opinion (as usual) rather incorrect, Do What???”
So you’re Bob Barr? Ron Paul?
No, so STFU.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:26 pm
“The difference, of course, being that Romney was a governor of the bluest of blue states, with a legislature that could override any veto of his without breaking a sweat, and a requirement for a balanced budget, while Huckabee was not.”
In other words, his one term was pointless.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:27 pm
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!
When you were talking about “elegant speaking” were you not paying attention when Romney said he doesn’t care about poor people?
I’m sure you’ll find a way to twist that as well.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:28 pm
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!
Name some prominent Libertarians that support Romney.
Come on.
Joe the Prophet
February 29th, 2012
2:28 pm
How’s thangs in Dixie..? Ready to abandon your Christian principles and vote for a polytheist in order to win a political election.
Rick Santorum is a HORRIBLE candidate, but at least he’s a Christian. I would rather lose as a Christian than win as a heretic…!!!!!
Joe the Prophet
February 29th, 2012
2:33 pm
Being as how the state of Georgia does not host a Libertarian party primary, you can support Gary Johnson in the Libertarian Party Convention, the first week in May, in Las Vegas….!!!!
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:38 pm
“Name some prominent Libertarians that support Romney.”
Why?
“When you were talking about “elegant speaking” were you not paying attention when Romney said he doesn’t care about poor people?”
Of course, I could go back and repeat my oft repeated line regarding taking one public comment and extrapolating an entire policy from it, or I could repeat the dozens of gaffes from each of the current Presidential candidates, including the current Disaster-in-Chief and his VP, but since the point has already been made that no one is, in fact, perfect, it would be a waste of time for those who are farthest from being perfect to read them.
As they wouldn’t understand the concept.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:41 pm
“Why?”
Like I thought, there aren’t any who support him.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:42 pm
Joe the Prophet, you have yet to answer my question to you.
Why do you care about the faith of ANY political candidate when there is a Constitutional prohibition on him or her to force that faith down your throat, and when the candidate has never shown even the slightest hint of his religious beliefs in the performance of his duties in office?
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:42 pm
“Ready to abandon your Christian principles and vote for a polytheist in order to win a political election.”
South Park had an excellent show about Mormonism. I hear the same guys won tons of awards for “the book of mormon.”
Dusty
February 29th, 2012
2:42 pm
Gentlemen,
May we discontinue the playground twaddle and visit the outside world? Thank you..Now…..
I heard about three strongly determined young men today. They declined to obey the kings orders! Ah ha! The king gave them a very warm location to visit. You betcha!! Their story was written in a famous book by an author sometimes known as Danny-boy!. Who were they? (Mispelling is permissable!)
Winners of this contest get to shake the hand that shook the hand of Newt Gingrich (when Kyle gets back!) No googling!!
Ready! Set! Gooooo!!
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:43 pm
“Why do you care about the faith of ANY political candidate when there is a Constitutional prohibition on him or her to force that faith down your throat, and when the candidate has never shown even the slightest hint of his religious beliefs in the performance of his duties in office?”
The Constitution also gives us the right to question ANY candidate for ANY reason.
Sorry, if the Constitution is an inconvenience for you.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
2:44 pm
The “Why?” for your benefit, Do What?? is because the prominent Libertarians across the country will be supporting their candidate.
Are you really that clueless?
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
2:44 pm
http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-government/personal-growth-mandate-passes-1367390.html
GREAT JOB MEN!
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:44 pm
“Winners of this contest get to shake the hand that shook the hand of Newt Gingrich”
Dusty, were you at the private school which hosted Newt?
josef
February 29th, 2012
2:45 pm
Thought I’d check by and see who’s here and say hello. They’re off on abortion over at Jay’s. That one always brings out the same sanctimonious lot saying the same thing over and over.
So, how’s everybody doing?
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:45 pm
“Are you really that clueless?”
Ah yes, more insults from our resident hypocrite.
“is because the prominent Libertarians across the country will be supporting their candidate.”
Which makes it even funnier that you, a so-called libertarian, support Romney.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
2:46 pm
josef
Hi, how’s it going? DaveR, I mean Tiberius, and I are having a nice little argument. I can see now why Bookman banned him.