2012 Tuesday: Michigan is the show-me state for Santorum
Our unscientific poll last week found that, by about a 3-to-2 margin, readers believe Newt Gingrich would be hurt more by losing next week’s Georgia primary than Mitt Romney would by losing today’s primary in his native Michigan. Today, I’m going to suggest the person with the most riding on one of these states is neither Gingrich nor Romney, but Rick Santorum.
If one believes the “Mitt Romney vs. the Not-Romneys” narrative of this GOP primary, it follows that Santorum must buck the trend of all the other short-term front-runners if he wants to be a serious threat to topple Romney in the end. There is little reason to believe Santorum has risen to his current No. 1 spot by mere force of personality or policies: His personality and policies didn’t keep him out of fifth and even sixth place for much of the race, and they haven’t changed during the past two months when he became a top-tier candidate (or survivor, depending on how you view him). So, we need to see if he can buck the trend.
The trend to which I refer actually is two-fold: Before the primaries began, a Not-Romney front-runner — Rick Perry or Herman Cain — rose to the top, only to be brought down by his own actions. Perry’s debate gaffes and Cain’s increasingly apparent lack of preparedness on topics such as foreign policy. (I continue to believe Cain’s missteps on this front had more to do with his downturn in popularity than did the allegations of sexual harassment and an affair, although the latter did finally push him out of the race.) For both Perry and Cain, the candidate’s undoing was his own fault.
Once the primaries began, a different — and, for Santorum now, a more relevant — trend emerged: One candidate would win a primary and gain (or re-gain) the front-runner status, only to be brought back to the pack. These downturns usually followed a barrage of negative advertising: e.g., Gingrich’s attacks on Romney in South Carolina, and Romney’s returning the favor big-time in Florida. (I do not place Santorum’s win in Iowa in the context of this trend, because he wasn’t actually declared the winner over Romney until weeks after the fact.)
Now we have Santorum, still riding the momentum of his triple wins on Feb. 7 in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, and trying to prove in Michigan that he can really hang with Romney. Opinion polls forecast a narrow win for Romney or a narrow win for Santorum, depending on which one you view, after each man has taken a turn leading the state by a healthy margin. Gingrich and Ron Paul have effectively conceded Michigan, so it’s a two-man race.
Once again, Romney has used his campaign’s financial advantage to blister Santorum with negative ads, largely about his spending record in Congress. But unlike Gingrich in Florida, and Iowa before that, Santorum has not withered. At least, not if you believe the polls.
By late tonight, we’ll know how close the election really was and, barring a ballot controversy, who won it. It remains to be seen if a narrow loss by Santorum would cast enough doubt on his candidacy to put Romney back in front or if — as Santorum’s campaign staff is already spinning it — merely running close in Romney’s home state would be enough of a victory. This much, however, certainly is true: Eventually, if one of these Not-Romneys is going to be the nominee, he’s going to have to take the lead and hold it.
Santorum may have won the (non-binding) primary in Missouri. But for a lot of GOP voters, Michigan is more of a show-me state.
(Note: I will be on the road today following the Gingrich campaign in Northwest Georgia, so my blogging and responding to your comments will be sporadic.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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412 comments Add your comment
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
11:43 am
You guys are funny! Thanks for the laughs.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
11:44 am
“It’s not just him. Writers from the WSJ have said the same thing.”
Cite?
Jefferson
February 29th, 2012
11:51 am
Great example folks, just think of the 2 other shades of gray to the left of center. More the same, than different, just 180 out.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
11:52 am
“And I don’t take you seriously, except that you and your kind could screw up this election come November.”
Awwww, poor baby.
“Yeah, he was just doing it for the Lord.”
What Lord?
“And surprisingly, one doesn’t have a thing to do with the other ”
So calling people names like stupid, idiot etc isn’t fringe? Geez dude, you are crazier than I first imagined.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
11:55 am
Romney Healthcare Adviser: ObamaCare Based On RomneyCare
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/10/12/romney_healthcare_adviser_obamacare_based_off_romneycare.html
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
11:55 am
Jonathan Gruber, MIT professor: “The truth is that the Affordable Care Act is essentially based on what we accomplished in Massachusetts. It’s the same basic structure applied nationally. John McDonough, one of the other advisers,who work in both Massachusetts and advised the White House said ‘it’s the Massachusetts with three more zeros.’ And that’s basically a good description of what the federal bill did.”
Gruber says Massachusetts received some federal funding for Romney’s healthcare reform, meaning all U.S. taxpayers chipped in to fund RomneyCare.
Check. Mate.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
12:00 pm
Where are you, Dave R? Crying? Pouting? Beating your dog?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
12:07 pm
Facts really aren’t your strong suit, are they Do What???
You DO realize that Johnathan Gruber is an economist, right?
And that his “advising” during the Romney administration was minimal and solely on the financial aspects of implementing it at the state level, don’t you?
See, Do What?? this is the difference between reading something in the media and believing that it’s true because it fits into your neat little simple worldview, and doing actual RESEARCH once you read it.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
12:08 pm
“So calling people names like stupid, idiot etc isn’t fringe?”
No, just describing people accurately.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
12:10 pm
Hey, Do What???
Let’s come to an agreement on here, shall we?
I’ll call you by your blog name, and you call me by mine, OK?
Or, you can continue to be the 4 year-old I have always suspected you to be.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
12:11 pm
“You DO realize that Johnathan Gruber is an economist, right?”
He also worked with Romney on the bill. Reading isn’t your strong suit is it?
“And that his “advising” during the Romney administration was minimal and solely on the financial aspects of implementing it at the state level, don’t you?”
I love how you’re grasping at straws.
“See, Do What?? this is the difference between reading something in the media and believing that it’s true because it fits into your neat little simple worldview, and doing actual RESEARCH once you read it.”
What I see is you desperately trying to sell people on Romney and getting angry when I, or others, throw out little “inconveniences” at you.
Try again.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
12:15 pm
Tell you what, son.
You tell me how long you lived in Massachusetts and followed Massachusetts politics closely, and we’ll decide which of us really has the knowledge to debate the true level of participation Mr. Gruber had in the actual writing of Romneycare, OK?
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
12:17 pm
“You tell me how long you lived in Massachusetts”
Says the guy who never lived in Mass.
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
12:18 pm
February 26, 1993, attack on the World Trade Center: 6 deaths and 1,042 injured,
* April 19, 1995, Oklahoma City bombing: 168 deaths and over 800 injured,
* June 25, 1996, Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia: 20 deaths and 372 injured,
* August 7, 1998, attacks on American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania: 12 U.S. deaths out of a total of 223 deaths; 12 U.S. injured out of a total of over 4,000 injured,
* October 12, 2000, attack on the USS Cole in Yemen: 17 deaths; 39 injured.
ALL UNDER DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP!
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
12:18 pm
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate! aka Dave R aka whiney little baby,
I’m having so much fun watching you defend Mitt. It’s awesome to see your anger come out for the whole blog to see.
You’re having about as much success defending Mitt as Dems are having with defending Obama.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
12:19 pm
And I’m not trying to “sell people on Romney” at all, Do What???
I’m simply trying to debunk the lies, distortions and misconceptions that the uninformed have about him and ALL other candidates, because I feel that an informed electorate ultimately makes the right choice. And if you didn’t have your blinders on, you’d remember that I have defended ALL candidates, including Obama, from the idiotic comments of people on this blog.
It’s tough being the voice of reason in a world gone mad.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
12:20 pm
“Says the guy who never lived in Mass.”
My birth certificate and my voting record of 16 years says otherwise, son.
But then again, facts are such a tenuous thing with you.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
12:21 pm
“I’m simply trying to debunk the lies, distortions and misconceptions that the uninformed have about him and ALL other candidates”
No, you’re trying desperately to sell everyone on Mitt. You mock conservatives yet you tell us to vote for him.
“from the idiotic comments of people on this blog.”
And more name calling.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
12:22 pm
“My birth certificate and my voting record of 16 years says otherwise, son.”
Cool, post your birth certificate so we all know you aren’t lying.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
12:28 pm
“You mock conservatives yet you tell us to vote for him.”
I mock SOME conservatives (like you) because they are no more consistent than liberals, even though they claim to be.
It’s just that you take things more personally because you’re the more direct target (being one the the worst of the worst as far as facts are concerned).
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
12:30 pm
“Cool, post your birth certificate so we all know you aren’t lying.”
Ah, a stalker in the making.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
12:42 pm
“I mock SOME conservatives (like you) because they are no more consistent than liberals, even though they claim to be.”
You’re really struggling.
“Ah, a stalker in the making.”
Divert!!!!!!!!!!! Dude, you’re a liar.
UGA 1999
February 29th, 2012
12:43 pm
Obama’s approval rating at 43% and dropping fast. Uh oh, you guys better come up with some more lies.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
12:50 pm
Do What?? you have 5 minutes to supply these answers, to see if you really have a handle on Massachusetts politics.
How many Mass. House Speakers have been indicted for felonies in the past 20 years?
What are their names?
How many were convicted and sentenced?
Who is Howie Carr?
Who is Barbara Anderson?
Who was the first black official elected statewide in Massachusetts?
Is Massachusetts a state?
Who did Scott Brown defeat to win the U.S. Senate seat?
Who is Coupe Deval?
Why is he called that?
The clock is ticking, Do What???
Linda
February 29th, 2012
12:51 pm
Tiberius: 43 points
Do what: 96 points
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
12:56 pm
Linda: Can’t count.
Or reason.
Or provide intelligent posts.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
12:56 pm
“you have 5 minutes to supply these answers, to see if you really have a handle on Massachusetts politics.”
1: I don’t owe you anything.
2: Romneycare is the godfather of Obamacare.
3: You’re diversions/lies are making you look dumber and dumber by the minute.
Bottom line: You’re a whiney little “moderate” who can’t prove that Obamacare and Romneycare are different.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
12:56 pm
“Or provide intelligent posts.”
And here comes more diversions from our resident baby.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:01 pm
“I don’t owe you anything”
Do What??-speak for “I’ve been outed!
@@
February 29th, 2012
1:02 pm
Actually, I called out the phony nature of Jon Huntsman from the very beginning his name was mentioned
Yet, Huntsman encorsed Romney.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:02 pm
“Tiberius: 43 points
Do what: 96 points”
I’m shocked that DaveR, oops I mean Tiberius, actually scored any points. He’s spent most of his time diverting attention away from his lies.
@@
February 29th, 2012
1:02 pm
encoursed!!??!!
That’s sounds nasty.
Should’ve been endorsed.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:03 pm
“Do What??-speak for “I’ve been outed!”
Divert!!!!!!! Divert!!!!!! Divert!!!!!!
Hey DaveR, why don’t you just ask Kyle if Obozocare came from Romneycare?
@@
February 29th, 2012
1:03 pm
And “That’s” should’ve been “that”.
Stopping while I’m behind.
schnirt
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:04 pm
“Yet, Huntsman encorsed Romney.”
Yep, all the fake conservatives endorse Romney.
Let’s put it this way: Romney lost to the guy who lost to Obama in 2008.
Nuff said.
Jefferson
February 29th, 2012
1:06 pm
T- you can’t fix stupid, don’t waste your time.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:10 pm
“T- you can’t fix stupid, don’t waste your time.”
Yeah T, don’t waste your time trying to fix yourself.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:10 pm
“You’re a whiney little “moderate” who can’t prove that Obamacare and Romneycare are different.”
R: 70 pages.
O: 2,300 pages
R: State-run and Constitutional
O: Federally-run and un-Constitutional
R: Managed by a combination of state agencies and insurance companies
O: managed by unelected Federal bureaucrats
R: Uses Medicare as a form of some funding
O: Reduces Medicare funding
R: Doesn’t override religious institution’s Constitutional rights
O: Overrides religious institution’s Constitutional rights
R: Keeps people on their current insurance plans
O: Removes low-cost insurance plans from the mix
R: Allows you to keep your own doctor
O: Doesn’t
R: Doesn’t add to any budget deficit or debt
O: Does
And except for correcting typos, Do What???, that didn’t take me five minutes to point out the very basic differences between Romneycare and Obamacare.
If this were a fight, the ref would have counted you out two hours ago.
Linda
February 29th, 2012
1:14 pm
Family Budget:
annual income $24,700
annual spending $37,900
new credit card debt $13,300
existing credit card balance $153,500
recent belt tightening $385
Federal Gov. Budget: same as above with 8 zeros added to each amount
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:14 pm
@@, I don’t like McCain, but he endorsed Romney. I’m not fond of Pawlenty, but he endorsed Romney.
I do like Chris Christie, and he endorsed Romney, as did Jan Brewer and Bob McDonnell.
Looks like Romney attracts a broad coalition of support across the GOP spectrum, doesn’t he?
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:15 pm
“And except for correcting typos, Do What???, that didn’t take me five minutes to point out the very basic differences between Romneycare and Obamacare.”
Yet Romney’s own advisors said that Obamacare came from Romneycare.
Hey, if what you say is true then why does EVERY SINGLE media outlet, including FOX, say that Romney’s achilles heel is Romneycare?
If Romneycare isn’t so bad, why does he run away from it during debates?
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:16 pm
“I do like Chris Christie, and he endorsed Romney, as did Jan Brewer and Bob McDonnell.”
As does Obama.
“Looks like Romney attracts a broad coalition of support across the GOP spectrum, doesn’t he?”
Yep, so did Mccain.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:16 pm
“Let’s put it this way: Romney lost to the guy who lost to Obama in 2008.”
Ah. The “I don’t have political analytical skills” argument.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:17 pm
“If this were a fight, the ref would have counted you out two hours ago.”
That’s because you would have been beaten to a pulp. He’d have disqualified me for totally humiliating you.
@@
February 29th, 2012
1:17 pm
Tiberius:
And myself, Thomas Sowell & Larry Elder are all behind Newt.
The three of us make the perfect Oreo.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:18 pm
“Ah. The “I don’t have political analytical skills” argument.”
Um, pumpkin, that actually happened.
Do what??????
February 29th, 2012
1:18 pm
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!
You sound a lot like Granny Godzilla and AmVet.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:19 pm
“Yet Romney’s own advisors said that Obamacare came from Romneycare.”
Repeating the lie. To correct: (as usual) ONE advisor (and one with a small economic part to play) has said this.
“Hey, if what you say is true then why does EVERY SINGLE media outlet, including FOX, say that Romney’s achilles heel is Romneycare?”
It is, as long as stupid people keep believing the lies.
“If Romneycare isn’t so bad, why does he run away from it during debates?”
Obviously, you don’t watch the debates. Because he doesn’t.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:24 pm
“Um, pumpkin, that actually happened.”
Yeah. In a different year. Under different circumstances. You obviously believe that different circumstances and different years don’t mean a thing when considering the future actons of people, Do What??? Your statement makes that clear.
So how can you think that Republicans in the House and Senate (should both become a majority in 2013) will actually curb spending with a Republican President? After all, that didn’t happen the last time.
You are a quivering mass of inconsistent thought and zero analytical skills.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 29th, 2012
1:26 pm
“You sound a lot like Granny Godzilla and AmVet.”
And you smell like 5 day-old road kill. Isn’t it fun to just type nonsense?