2012 Tuesday: Michigan is the show-me state for Santorum
Our unscientific poll last week found that, by about a 3-to-2 margin, readers believe Newt Gingrich would be hurt more by losing next week’s Georgia primary than Mitt Romney would by losing today’s primary in his native Michigan. Today, I’m going to suggest the person with the most riding on one of these states is neither Gingrich nor Romney, but Rick Santorum.
If one believes the “Mitt Romney vs. the Not-Romneys” narrative of this GOP primary, it follows that Santorum must buck the trend of all the other short-term front-runners if he wants to be a serious threat to topple Romney in the end. There is little reason to believe Santorum has risen to his current No. 1 spot by mere force of personality or policies: His personality and policies didn’t keep him out of fifth and even sixth place for much of the race, and they haven’t changed during the past two months when he became a top-tier candidate (or survivor, depending on how you view him). So, we need to see if he can buck the trend.
The trend to which I refer actually is two-fold: Before the primaries began, a Not-Romney front-runner — Rick Perry or Herman Cain — rose to the top, only to be brought down by his own actions. Perry’s debate gaffes and Cain’s increasingly apparent lack of preparedness on topics such as foreign policy. (I continue to believe Cain’s missteps on this front had more to do with his downturn in popularity than did the allegations of sexual harassment and an affair, although the latter did finally push him out of the race.) For both Perry and Cain, the candidate’s undoing was his own fault.
Once the primaries began, a different — and, for Santorum now, a more relevant — trend emerged: One candidate would win a primary and gain (or re-gain) the front-runner status, only to be brought back to the pack. These downturns usually followed a barrage of negative advertising: e.g., Gingrich’s attacks on Romney in South Carolina, and Romney’s returning the favor big-time in Florida. (I do not place Santorum’s win in Iowa in the context of this trend, because he wasn’t actually declared the winner over Romney until weeks after the fact.)
Now we have Santorum, still riding the momentum of his triple wins on Feb. 7 in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, and trying to prove in Michigan that he can really hang with Romney. Opinion polls forecast a narrow win for Romney or a narrow win for Santorum, depending on which one you view, after each man has taken a turn leading the state by a healthy margin. Gingrich and Ron Paul have effectively conceded Michigan, so it’s a two-man race.
Once again, Romney has used his campaign’s financial advantage to blister Santorum with negative ads, largely about his spending record in Congress. But unlike Gingrich in Florida, and Iowa before that, Santorum has not withered. At least, not if you believe the polls.
By late tonight, we’ll know how close the election really was and, barring a ballot controversy, who won it. It remains to be seen if a narrow loss by Santorum would cast enough doubt on his candidacy to put Romney back in front or if — as Santorum’s campaign staff is already spinning it — merely running close in Romney’s home state would be enough of a victory. This much, however, certainly is true: Eventually, if one of these Not-Romneys is going to be the nominee, he’s going to have to take the lead and hold it.
Santorum may have won the (non-binding) primary in Missouri. But for a lot of GOP voters, Michigan is more of a show-me state.
(Note: I will be on the road today following the Gingrich campaign in Northwest Georgia, so my blogging and responding to your comments will be sporadic.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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412 comments Add your comment
Linda
February 28th, 2012
5:18 pm
Tiberius@4:30, Comical? LOL.
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
5:21 pm
For you nonbelievers, my 5:18 post ends with a joke, Mark 5:9. You’ll have to read a few preceding verses to get the joke.
Dusty
February 28th, 2012
5:24 pm
Where’s Kyle? I hope he had a good political afternoon full of stirring news!!.
Anyway, I would disagree with anyone saying that our president is persecuting Christians. Don’t follow that idea at all. The president is not my political pick as I believe his inexperience in government has made his term most unhealthy for the country. I hope we will have someone else in the White House for the next four years who is more competent. But I try not to judge his faith, only his governance.
In the meatime, let us remember some of the outstanding Christians of history. Pastor Bonhofer, German Lutheran minister who led resistance against Hitler and was hung by the Nazis.
Mother Teresa never saw a person so sick, poor, ugly, or homeless that she would not help. Her efforts in India that helped thousands are well known throughout the world.
Nelson Mandela endured over twenty years of imprisonment and still stood strong in his efforts to give people freedom. He, too, is known worldwide.
There are many others, some famous, some only giving what meager service and goods they can offer. They are the Christians you hear so little about. That is because they do it to help others, not to get publicity.
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
5:27 pm
Ever notice how when someone figures out they’ve stepped in it the silence becomes deafening?
“eye of the needle”… go do a google search notice the images… yeah the one on the far right…
Do you see the gate? Yep, that’s right it is an actual gate called the needle gate. Notice how narrow is that gate?
Why was it so hard for the rich man to pass through the gate DannyX?
The rich man want to keep his many riches. All he had to do was unload his wealth and he could have passed through the eye of the needle gate which was an illustration of go to heaven.
Sorry DannyX there was no rich against the poor, no redistribution of wealth, just a need of humbling ones self to God to enter his kingdom
Linda
February 28th, 2012
5:29 pm
Liberals/heathens trying to define Christianity is like pedophiles trying to define sex.
The Ten Commandments condemns murder. Anyone who commits murder is NOT a Christian. Period. Anyone who commits murder with the pretense of Christianity is worse than liberalism.
DannyX
February 28th, 2012
5:29 pm
“Dear DannyX @ 4:41, think you err in your analysis – Native Americans were not killed in the name of religion – it was more of a racial extermination”
Is that what they taught in Sunday School? Is that what Christians and Hitler do? We as Americans can ban gay marriage, because “it’s in the Bible,” next we can exterminate all the Mexicans in the country? That’s exactly what Hitler did, tried to exterminate the Jewish race. You said earlier “at least the former have beliefs informed by a relationship with the Eternal Deity,” what good are those beliefs if you can exterminate a whole race of people?
Michael H Smith, I know very well what the Biblical reference to the eye of the needle is. It still applies, could a rich person with all of his belongings go through it?
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
5:36 pm
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
5:18 pm
The term Christian was first used at the Church of Antioch(found in the Book of Acts) those around the area seeing the disciples called them Christian, some say to mock other say because they appeared to be just like Jesus Christ. In any event we know they were Christ-like because of the attributing in this line, “They were full of the Holy Ghost and faith”. To be full of the Holy Spirit means there isn’t any room for fleshly or earthly things to clutter ones’ life, so all that remains is the likeness of Jesus.
Not many of us walk that kind of walk as born again believers but I have met a few and it is a very few who do. They don’t have to tell anyone they are Christians for others, as was the case at Antioch, call them Christian because of their Christ like life.
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
5:43 pm
Michael H Smith, I know very well what the Biblical reference to the eye of the needle is. It still applies, could a rich person with all of his belongings go through it?
No you don’t know and I told you what you could not tell me but still you think it is dealing with class warfare? Totally untrue.
Furthermore, DannyX, Christian Charity and Stewardship is not the same as Government confiscation and redistribution.
For God giveth and taketh but Govrenment only taketh.
md
February 28th, 2012
5:44 pm
“next we can exterminate all the Mexicans in the country?”
That one gets the “Plastic Man” award………….
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
February 28th, 2012
5:45 pm
Olympia Snowe (R-ME) to Retire
Haha, the dummycrats lost another one of their libs.
Dusty
February 28th, 2012
5:46 pm
DannyX
You are losing your argument because you are posting half truths, propaganda edicts and headline “shock” news. .
Christian beliefs are usually taught in Sunday School not racial hatreds. As to reservations, I have worked on many of them and visited churches there. American Indians are NOT teaching racial hatred in their churches either. They promote love for one another just like all Christian churches.
You can go back in history and find terrible things. Try not to overlook the good of our times when we have the opportunity to do what is even better now…
DannyX
February 28th, 2012
5:53 pm
“Furthermore, DannyX, Christian Charity and Stewardship is not the same as Government confiscation and redistribution.”
Which has nothing to do with a rich man going through the gates with all of his/her possessions. I don’t know of one rich man that could fit through those gates. It is very easy to understand. If you think it no longer is valid why is it in the Bible if there is no lesson to learn. Who gave the modern rich man such a waiver?
Before you go bragging about charity maybe should should read Matthew 6:1.
saywhat?
February 28th, 2012
6:08 pm
It really doesn’t matter who wins the Republican primary. Whoever eventually wins will inevitably lose to President Obama. Its just a matter of by how much and over what particular issues.
Sarah Coulter
February 28th, 2012
6:14 pm
And I love how the millions keep getting thrown out of the secularists’ killings when they are estimates. I can estimate that I have 5 million dollars in my checking account or that I am going to get a huge tax return, but it doesn’t make it the true.
Ragnar, I still take the secularist. Most religious people are completely void of critical thinking, and will take whatever his or her pastor/preacher/minister says no matter how irrational it may be.
First, to Linda. “Liberals/heathens”? I raise you conservatives/bible thumpers/fearmongers.
Dusty, so they are taught at church? Hmm…very interesting considering that Sunday mornings are the most segregated times in the U.S.
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
6:18 pm
“Furthermore, DannyX, Christian Charity and Stewardship is not the same as Government confiscation and redistribution.”
Which has nothing to do with a rich man going through the gates with all of his/her possessions. I don’t know of one rich man that could fit through those gates. It is very easy to understand. If you think it no longer is valid why is it in the Bible if there is no lesson to learn. Who gave the modern rich man such a waiver?
Before you go bragging about charity maybe should should read Matthew 6:1.
***************************************************
First part was to inform you about Obama misuse of bible not just yours alone.
As for God giving and taking, yes that too, has everything to do with the rich man entering the kingdom of God.
The bible is very valid and rich men can fit through that narrow gate so long as they don’t try to take their wealth along with them. the needle gate was used to illustrate a lesson one you still seem unwilling to learn, rich men are saved the same way as the poor man. There are no waivers to get into heaven, all must confess their sin and trust in Christ for salvation.
There is no bragging about Charity, no need to. God knows what each of us does.
You can use more time reading the bible before giving advice to anyone about scriptures: I’m being kind by not bragging or really taking an unfair advantage of you. Your lack of Bible knowledge really shows.
tiberius your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
6:20 pm
Sarah, they don’t do a head count when filling mass graves.
Just saying.
Sheesh!
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
6:28 pm
Dear Sarah @ 6:14, I respectfully disagree. I find a larger number of believers are kind souls, people who think before acting with an evil impulse. I concede knowing many good and thoughtful “secular humanists,” just think their numbers are relatively fewer than among the believers I have known.
DannyX
February 28th, 2012
6:30 pm
“You can use more time reading the bible before giving advice to anyone about scriptures”
You should capitalize “Bible.” You did not answer my question, “I don’t know of one rich man that could fit through those gates. It is very easy to understand. If you think it no longer is valid why is it in the Bible if there is no lesson to learn. Who gave the modern rich man such a waiver?”
How many native American graves from the Christian-American racial extermination are there Tiberius? Whoops, they don’t do head counts.
Btw all you Christians, who won the American civil war in God’s eyes. Was that a Holy war?
saywhat?
February 28th, 2012
6:37 pm
Apropos to the way this thread has gone off topic, I give you the often cited quote from Ghandi- “I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ”
Amen to that, brother.
Linda
February 28th, 2012
6:44 pm
Sarah@6:14, Liberals/heathens? Do you even know who you are?
It’s one thing to be a heathen. It’s another thing to mock Christians, as Obama has.
Liberals are scared to death of even singling out the Muslims, who have been attacking the US since the ’70s, but they never hesitate to attack Christians. So much for their political correctness & the security of the US.
DannyX
February 28th, 2012
6:46 pm
“The immaculate conception of Jesus, his deification, the creation of the world by him, his miraculous powers, his resurrection and visible ascension, his corporeal presence in the Eucharist, the Trinity; original sin, atonement, regeneration, election, orders of the Hierarchy, etc.”
Thomas Jefferson didn’t believe in any of that. He did admire Jesus the man. I read my Jefferson Bible all the time, great book.
Thomas Jefferson- Human secularist and great American.
zeke
February 28th, 2012
6:52 pm
guess sanctorum thinks gov deal a snob for wanting more college grads
MarkV
February 28th, 2012
6:54 pm
I am sure I will be attacked from all sides in this religion vs. non-religion debate, but I suggest that as usual both sides are guilty of trivialization of very complex matters. When people were killed in the name of God, they were not necessarily killed for religious reasons. When Spaniards were killing people in what is now Mexico and in present Latin America, they may have been doing it “in the name of God,” but failed to mention their hunger for gold, just as one example. Hitler may have talked about divine purpose, but that was not why he did what he did. On the other hand, it is ridiculous to attribute the murders done in the name of Stalin and Mao to “secular humanism.” Again, the main reason was not an attack on religion, and further, who wants to call Stalin and Mao “humanists?”
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
7:03 pm
Dear MarkV @ 6:54, some of us believe Karl Marx was the ultimate “secular humanist,” one who believed in the supremacy of human thought. We are also inclined to attribute the acts of Marxists acting in furtherance of Marxism to the same “secular humanism” that motivated Marx. We see the same traits in the Eugenicists who sprang from Darwin, and in the National Socialists who refined the ideas of the Eugenicists. None of those ideas would be compatible with those of any religion within my acquaintance.
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
7:04 pm
Dear DannyX @ 6:35, Jefferson was a deist – not a secular humanist.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
February 28th, 2012
7:06 pm
First of all, Hitler had a progrom against the priesthood and as usual, MarkV has no idea what he’s talking about.
tiberius your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
7:07 pm
Watch out, ragnar. MarkV requires that every instance of every person have the definition perfect, or it doesn’t count with him.
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
7:11 pm
Dear Tiberius @ 7:07, ha! Thanks.
carlosgvv
February 28th, 2012
7:21 pm
Danny X
There is not a shred of evidence that God exists. So, if I ask you why you believe in God, you’ll probalbly say “my faith tells me God is real”. If I ask you where your faith comes from, you will say “it’s a gift from God”. Unfortunately, trying to explain the total absurdity of this kind of thinking would be completely lost on you.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
February 28th, 2012
7:23 pm
carlosgvv- If you don’t mind, tell us how you came into existence.
Linda
February 28th, 2012
7:25 pm
carlosgvv@7:21, Where does your faith come from that you will be able to get into your car or on a bus tomorrow & get to work without being killed? Do you understand what faith actually is?
MarkV
February 28th, 2012
7:31 pm
ragnar danneskjold @7:03 pm: “Dear MarkV @ 6:54, some of us believe Karl Marx was the ultimate “secular humanist, …”
You are right, ragnar, some of you do, just like some of you believe a lot of other nonsense.
DannyX
February 28th, 2012
7:33 pm
“There is not a shred of evidence that God exists. So, if I ask you why you believe in God, you’ll probalbly say “my faith tells me God is real”. If I ask you where your faith comes from, you will say “it’s a gift from God”. Unfortunately, trying to explain the total absurdity of this kind of thinking would be completely lost on you.”
How would your statement be lost on me carlosgvv? I agree, except the last part.
ragnar, a deist can also be a human secularist.
How so carlsgvv? I
MarkV
February 28th, 2012
7:34 pm
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin… @7:06 pm: “First of all, Hitler had a progrom against the priesthood and as usual, MarkV has no idea what he’s talking about.”
And as usual, I Report tries to make a point and does not know how.
carlosgvv
February 28th, 2012
7:50 pm
\Danny X – 7:33 “I agree, except the last part”
You have answered your own question.
carlosgvv
February 28th, 2012
7:51 pm
Linda
Faith is strongly believing in something that has no supporting evidence whatsoever. Like religion, Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy.
carlosgvv
February 28th, 2012
7:53 pm
I report – 7:23
I don’t have enough space here to explain the Big Ban Theory and all the things that happened later because of natural laws and randon chance.
tiberius your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
7:59 pm
Space isn’t the only thing Carlos doesn’t have enough of to explain his existence. There are lots of things I know, but how I came about isn’t one of them. Not nearly arrogant to know that mystery.
DannyX
February 28th, 2012
8:00 pm
“You have answered your own question.”
How so?
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
February 28th, 2012
8:01 pm
carlosgvv- I am well aware of the “Big Bang Theory” and how it supposedly began with matter expanding.
So what created that matter?
Linda
February 28th, 2012
8:17 pm
carlosgvv@7:51, So, when you get in your car or on the bus to get somewhere, your faith that you will arrive is “something that has no supporting evidence whatsoever.” If you have NO faith, why do you rely on faith?
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
8:19 pm
Dear Carlos @ 7:51, Like the “Stimulus.”
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
8:21 pm
Dear Danny @ 7:33, “ragnar, a deist can also be a human secularist.” Just as a capitalist can believe in communism.
Linda
February 28th, 2012
8:24 pm
carlosgvv@7:53, Was the Big Ban (your words) theory an attempt to ban liberals from existing? Was the Big Bang Theory an attempt to confuse liberals about the words in the Declaration of Independence & the purpose of the Constitution?
Rafe Hollister
February 28th, 2012
8:40 pm
Linda
I think that he meant the Big Bunk Theory, spread enough Bunk and try to convince people you have an intelligent opinion.
Linda
February 28th, 2012
9:23 pm
Rafe@8:40, Bingo!
Have you ever noticed that carlosgvv makes statements & then disappears? Coward? Big Ban Bang Bunk Coward Theory? Turnips fallen off the truck, rejoice!
Hillbilly D
February 28th, 2012
9:28 pm
Whenever you get right down to it, we can’t prove the sky is blue. We just know that everybody says it’s blue, if blue is really blue and not some other color.
Whatever you believe, you believe it on faith.
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
9:47 pm
“You can use more time reading the bible before giving advice to anyone about scriptures”
You should capitalize “Bible.” You did not answer my question, “I don’t know of one rich man that could fit through those gates. It is very easy to understand. If you think it no longer is valid why is it in the Bible if there is no lesson to learn. Who gave the modern rich man such a waiver?
***************************************
You really are desperately reaching for straws to make an issue of capitalizing.
Oh I answered your question but you couldn’t answer mine and you obviously still can’t see what Jesus was teaching by using the camel and the eye of the needle (gate) as an example of why it is hard (not impossible) for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God. The camel was too loaded with goods to pass through the eye of the needle(gate). In like manner the rich man is too loaded with his riches to ever set them aside and humble himself to God for salvation to enter the heavenly kingdom. The meaning of this lesson remains very valid. As does the remedy or “waiver” for all rich, poor and whosoever will… John 3:16. The reason you don’t understand the Bible, is what is very easy for any spiritual person to see : 1)you are spiritually blind(actually dead) 2) so you really can’t study the Bible and understand mush of its’ meaning 3) Therefore, you are relying mostly on heresy that is why you question the validity.
Just face it you are as lost as you can be spiritually and scripturally.
“Again I say to you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.”
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
9:51 pm
correction :”much” – before you make a bigger issue of a misspell than your own disgraceful lack of Bible knowledge DannyX
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
9:57 pm
Whatever you believe, you believe it on faith.
******************************************
Exactly Hillbilly D. Something carlosgv couldn’t contradict me on because he ran out of answers to what was in existence before the big bang… duh, I don’t know. Either you believe in supreme matter or a supreme being creating the universe as we know it and like we’ve said, you have to rely on faith ultimately.