2012 Tuesday: Michigan is the show-me state for Santorum
Our unscientific poll last week found that, by about a 3-to-2 margin, readers believe Newt Gingrich would be hurt more by losing next week’s Georgia primary than Mitt Romney would by losing today’s primary in his native Michigan. Today, I’m going to suggest the person with the most riding on one of these states is neither Gingrich nor Romney, but Rick Santorum.
If one believes the “Mitt Romney vs. the Not-Romneys” narrative of this GOP primary, it follows that Santorum must buck the trend of all the other short-term front-runners if he wants to be a serious threat to topple Romney in the end. There is little reason to believe Santorum has risen to his current No. 1 spot by mere force of personality or policies: His personality and policies didn’t keep him out of fifth and even sixth place for much of the race, and they haven’t changed during the past two months when he became a top-tier candidate (or survivor, depending on how you view him). So, we need to see if he can buck the trend.
The trend to which I refer actually is two-fold: Before the primaries began, a Not-Romney front-runner — Rick Perry or Herman Cain — rose to the top, only to be brought down by his own actions. Perry’s debate gaffes and Cain’s increasingly apparent lack of preparedness on topics such as foreign policy. (I continue to believe Cain’s missteps on this front had more to do with his downturn in popularity than did the allegations of sexual harassment and an affair, although the latter did finally push him out of the race.) For both Perry and Cain, the candidate’s undoing was his own fault.
Once the primaries began, a different — and, for Santorum now, a more relevant — trend emerged: One candidate would win a primary and gain (or re-gain) the front-runner status, only to be brought back to the pack. These downturns usually followed a barrage of negative advertising: e.g., Gingrich’s attacks on Romney in South Carolina, and Romney’s returning the favor big-time in Florida. (I do not place Santorum’s win in Iowa in the context of this trend, because he wasn’t actually declared the winner over Romney until weeks after the fact.)
Now we have Santorum, still riding the momentum of his triple wins on Feb. 7 in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, and trying to prove in Michigan that he can really hang with Romney. Opinion polls forecast a narrow win for Romney or a narrow win for Santorum, depending on which one you view, after each man has taken a turn leading the state by a healthy margin. Gingrich and Ron Paul have effectively conceded Michigan, so it’s a two-man race.
Once again, Romney has used his campaign’s financial advantage to blister Santorum with negative ads, largely about his spending record in Congress. But unlike Gingrich in Florida, and Iowa before that, Santorum has not withered. At least, not if you believe the polls.
By late tonight, we’ll know how close the election really was and, barring a ballot controversy, who won it. It remains to be seen if a narrow loss by Santorum would cast enough doubt on his candidacy to put Romney back in front or if — as Santorum’s campaign staff is already spinning it — merely running close in Romney’s home state would be enough of a victory. This much, however, certainly is true: Eventually, if one of these Not-Romneys is going to be the nominee, he’s going to have to take the lead and hold it.
Santorum may have won the (non-binding) primary in Missouri. But for a lot of GOP voters, Michigan is more of a show-me state.
(Note: I will be on the road today following the Gingrich campaign in Northwest Georgia, so my blogging and responding to your comments will be sporadic.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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412 comments Add your comment
Inside Out
February 28th, 2012
2:45 pm
Tib….. From mein Kampf…
” Hitler’s religious beliefs and fanaticism (quotes from Mein Kampf)
Hitler wrote: “I believe that I am acting in accordance with the will of the Almighty Creator: by defending myself against the Jew, I am fighting for the work of the Lord..” As a boy, Hitler attended to the Catholic church and experienced the anti-Semitic attitude of his culture. In his book, Mein Kampf, Hitler reveals himself as a fanatical believer in God and country. This text presents selected quotes from the infamous anti-Semite himself. ”
Now you can try to say he was not a man of religion, but in his own words…….
Your turn to spin….
Inside Out
February 28th, 2012
2:53 pm
“Christianity in Europe during WWII
The Catholic and Protestant Churches in Germany set the foundation for WWII and the atrocities to occur. Popes, priests and nuns supported Hitler’s regime. Indeed, Hitler could not have come to power without Christianity’s help
Do I need to continue???
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
3:01 pm
“Now you can try to say he was not a man of religion, but in his own words…….”
Again, Inside Out, Dr. Seuss wrote (in his own words) about a Grinch that stole Christmas. Do you believe in the Grinch, Inside Out?
Or I guess that you would automatically believe a schizoid megalomaniac and his writings, rather than the rather accepted version of Christianity by millions of people, which are demonstrably in complete opposition to Hitler’s actions.
Just so that it could fit your rather pathetic attempt to link Christians to killings.
DannyX
February 28th, 2012
3:04 pm
“Make your case, son.”
No you make your case and back up your silly “What part of “but unlike some, the need to go to war over a religious philosophy has been replaced by intelligence and reason”, did you NOT understand, DannyX?” comment.
My original comment to ragnar was for him to back up his claim that he is “Much more comfortable with a Moslem than with a secular humanist – at least the former have beliefs informed by a relationship with the Eternal Deity.”
Then you came in and offered absolutely nothing to help ragnar back up his claim. I offered plenty of examples, you none. Why? Because you can’t. I will crush you with evidence.
Then you offer up the lame “the need to go to war over a religious philosophy has been replaced by intelligence and reason.” No offense Tiberius, that sentence is laughable.
Right now we have Muslims killing Christians in the Middle East. We have Jews killing Muslims and Muslims killing Jews. We have the Taliban killing US soldiers because of a Koran burning. We have Islamic fundamentalists building a nuclear bomb in Iran.
What are the mean ol’ secular humanists up to? So far ragnar has mentioned they are trying to get a cross removed from a public place, oh the humanity.
Sarah Coulter
February 28th, 2012
3:05 pm
Where are you getting those numbers from the crusade? I guarantee you that you are getting them from the churches. Don’t you think that they would be a little deflated?
What is that quote about history being written?
And DannyX is right. No way would Hitler’s regime have come to power without the church’s support.
Do you think the economy has affected the church’s tithes and in-flow of cash? Do you see any church’s closing up shop?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
3:08 pm
Oh, and yes, do continue, Inside Out.
Be sure to include FDR refusing to acknowledge the beginnings of the Holocaust (But wait! Isn’t he a hero of yours?) or the turning away of the boatloads of Jews trying to escape Hitler’s purges by this country under FDR.
Lots of people sold their souls to remain alive during WWII, Inside Out. Many were priests and Christians. Do you paint them all with a broad brush as collaborators, or can you acknowledge that many people will do anything to remain alive, even to the point of being silent when the alternative is death?
How would YOU hold up under the stare of Adolph Hitler or Joseph Goebbels or Torquemada, Inside Out?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
3:10 pm
“What are the mean ol’ secular humanists up to?”
In case you missed the beginning of the 21s century, DannyX, they’ve been replaced by people possessing more reason and intelligence.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
3:12 pm
“Do you think the economy has affected the church’s tithes and in-flow of cash?”
Yes.
“Do you see any church’s closing up shop?”
Yes.
What is your point, Sarah Coulter? And more importantly, why are you deflecting, rather than staying on point?
MarkV
February 28th, 2012
3:18 pm
Dusty,
I sympathize with your desire to turn the direction of the debate (if it can be called a debate), but you are fighting a losing battle.
Sarah Coulter
February 28th, 2012
3:19 pm
What churches have closed up shop? I do not believe you. You do not see any vacant, boarded up churches or undeveloped parts of churches like empty businesses and buildings around Atlanta.
And my point is that despite a hardship, many religious sheep are still giving their last dollar because the preacher, pastor, or minister says that it is the right thing to. With that kind of reasoning, I stand by DannyX. If you are going to do something against your better judgment and reason, what else are you willing to do in the name of religion or because your preacher, pastor, or minister says for you to?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
3:19 pm
Sarah Coulter, your knowledge of history is rather lacking. I gave no figures for the Crusades. My figures were for the Spanish Inquisition, which is decidedly different from the Crusades.
btw, the Crusades were estimated to have killed approximately 3 million people.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
3:22 pm
“You do not see any vacant, boarded up churches or undeveloped parts of churches like empty businesses and buildings around Atlanta.”
maybe at some point you’ll realize that “around Atlanta” does not comprise the world, nor even the United States.
“I stand with DannyX.”
Ignorant is as ignorant does . . . .
Inside Out
February 28th, 2012
3:22 pm
No Tibs… How I would hold up is not at issue.. You present a point and it has been proven false. You can excuse the church for is role in the rise of Hitler, but I refuse to give them a pass so easily. If theay are of such strong faith and moral standing, then my could they or did they not stand up to evil when it looked them in the eye? If they bowed down to as you say saty alive, then please tell me, how much different are then than the plain old humanist that does not pretend to have the backing of the big guy in the sky???
Inside Out
February 28th, 2012
3:24 pm
LOL…excuse the typos… all this evil has my fingers all over the place!!! LOL =)
Sarah Coulter
February 28th, 2012
3:27 pm
“When I lose a battle, I turn to criticizing you. I am saying that I can’t argue with you about religious people because I know that you are right. I call you ignorant because and question your intelligence because you have backed my arse into a corner.”
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!, that is what is being filtered from 3:22 post.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
3:38 pm
“How I would hold up is not at issue.”
That is EXACTLY the point, Inside Out. You may not chastise others for that which you will not do yourself.
Even Christians aren’t perfect.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
3:39 pm
Your filter needs cleaning, Sarah Coulter.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
3:44 pm
“And my point is that despite a hardship, many religious sheep are still giving their last dollar because the preacher, pastor, or minister says that it is the right thing to.”
And if they do so, what’s it to you, as long as their actions do not affect you?
And who are the sheep here, Sarah Coulter? The religious who at least stand for something, or the liberals who largely sit back and take what a benevolent government gives to them?
Inside Out
February 28th, 2012
3:44 pm
Here you go again moving the goal post on your argument….The premise is not perfection The initial point was the millions upon million of people have died and continue to die under the banner of religion. Hitler was a “Christian” albeit a really, really warped one but her defined himself as one nonetheless. The Church bell has presided over many a funeral and signaled the start of battles that have caused many more. Don’t dance around it…The facts simply are what they are….
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
3:55 pm
“The facts simply are what they are…”
And there is where you have just lost the argument, Inside Out.
Facts are NEVER just what they are. Every fact is subject to interpretation according the time frame in which they exist, the situation(s) at the time in question, and any number of a dozen factors which thinking human beings apply to data on a daily basis.
Case in point: When you are nuts (and please, I hope you aren’t going to say that Hitler wasn’t nuts) anything you say or write is going to be judged by your actions. Therefore, Hitler saying or writing that he was a Cristian, or doing things in the name of the Lord, is subject to scrutiny.
Remaining silent in the face of death doesn’t automatically mean acceptance, but rather a survival instinct kicking in.
This isn’t some on/off, ones and zeros, black and white game, Inside Out. It is LIFE, with all the grays and shadows and circumstances attached to it.
Hitler saying he was a Christian does NOT make him a Christian.
md
February 28th, 2012
3:56 pm
“Santorum, after greeting diners in this Grand Rapids suburb, told reporters that he reached out to Democratic voters, who can vote in the primary, to show that “we can attract voters we need to win states like Michigan.”"
Shows his ignorance….as if those dems would actually vote for him against Obama. If he can’t see the problem of calling for the dems to vote in the gop primary, then he can’t see………
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
4:00 pm
md, Santorum has never really impressed me, but he’s having a particularly bad couple of weeks, isn’t he?
Sarah Coulter
February 28th, 2012
4:03 pm
You do keep changing the goal posts. The original argument was by ragnar about rather being around a bunch of religious people than secular, and the secularists being more dangerous.
As for the sheep, nice way to toss out the liberals. Don’t act like some of those getting handouts from the government aren’t turning right around and giving it to the preacher/pastor/minister.
Inside Out
February 28th, 2012
4:07 pm
Again you are moving the goal post…. And yes, Hitler was batSh*t crazy… But the same thing can be said by anyone that is capable of committing mass murder, whether they are Christian or Atheist….That he was REALLY a Christian or just pretending is neither here nor there,,,The only point that matters was in his crazy little mind he was ” fighting for the work of the Lord.” It was done under the the flag of religion…and again every other thing you add is just a smoke screen to give cover to the church……
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
4:10 pm
Sorry, Sarah Coulter, but there is no moving of the goal posts. Secularists have been proven to be more dangerous, if only through the sheer numbers in less than a century which dwarf every death attributed to religious people in the history of the world. Add in the way they accomplished those deaths, through incredible acts of inhumanity and the industrialized nature in which they killed people, and the original premise of ragnar’s in response to DannyX is quite correct.
Your grasp of history, religion, and basic numbers is indicative of a very unsound education.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
4:12 pm
Arguing with Rain-man again . . .
What’s it like to be perfect, Inside Out?
md
February 28th, 2012
4:13 pm
“md, Santorum has never really impressed me, but he’s having a particularly bad couple of weeks, isn’t he?”
Hope so…..having to choose between him and Obama would be difficult…..but what scares me more is Obama with another 4 years with dems controlling Congress. Let’s hope the House at least stays gop.
Folks don’t like the comparison to Greece, but they aren’t looking close enough. Greece arrived at the precipice traveling the exact same road.
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
4:14 pm
This must have been a rip roaring blog form the looks of things.
However it would certainly help if some folks took the time to learn what the word “Christian” actually means before they misapply it(due to their lack of knowledge) to devils.
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
4:17 pm
Sorry I missed so much of the back and forth – does everyone agree now that Hitler was a mere poser, one who publicly affirmed his policies were those of Christ, but who obviously was pursuing his own agenda, merely mouthing the claim to assuage the concerns of the 1930’s German equivalent of bitter clingers?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
4:20 pm
If only, ragnar, if only.
I do think it’s been pretty comical that I have been arguing for the Christians, given my disdain for the religious right trying to foist their morals down my throat through government, however.
Inside Out
February 28th, 2012
4:24 pm
I have no idea what its like to be perfect…But I can sure as hell can tell you what its like to be sincere….I never raised the specter that they should be perfect…You pointed out that one should be judged by their actions more than than what they claim to be. If Hitler claimed to be a Christian but his actions were not very “Christ like” then please tell me how the church and all that comes with it can stand for can be excused for actions that they took that were not “Christ like ” either???
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
4:25 pm
After Santorum’s dirty little trick in Michigan to get democrats and union members (aided by democrats and Michael Moore) to vote for him in a GOP primary this guy can’t talk about anyone campaigning negatively. This sets another low even in desperation politics.
Sarah Coulter
February 28th, 2012
4:25 pm
And we go back to the belittling comments.
You are unbelievable. You completely ignore all of the killing still going on in the name of religion, and use the total deaths committed by secularists as a bizarre benchmark. And that is why there are still acts of violence committed in the name of religion. It gets excused.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
4:32 pm
Sarah, I do not ignore the current killing, nor do I excuse them. I merely put it in perspective in the larger context of the world.
And, no, Inside Out, you’re not perfect.
You just want it from those you disagree with.
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
4:34 pm
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
4:20 pm
Don’t take it too hard, I often have to oppose the religious right for trying to foist their religious edicts into laws.
BTW, your two social pet peeves that we’ve argued about, my contentions are based on the Declaration’s unalienable rights to life in conjunction with Constitutional State’s Rights, not my religious beliefs.
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
4:36 pm
Dear Sarah @ 4:25, agree that there are crimes committed by passionate believers, some random and some co-ordinated, but the benchmark was undoubtedly set by the secular humanists, those non-believers who think “eliminating” the problem is appropriate and permissible. Those who respect the existence of a higher authority than man are incapable of such a holocaust.
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
4:37 pm
Dear Sarah @ 4:25, my original point was not to allege that secular humanists are plotting the murder of believers – merely to point out the obvious, that secular humanists oppose allowing the creche on the village green, to censor the speech of those whom they oppose.
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
4:40 pm
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
4:17 pm
You do understand that the term Christian means “Christ -like” person? For those who are so ignorant to think Hitler was a Christian, do tell us what proof you can offer of Jesus Christ killing millions of Jews or for that matter, of Jesus Christ ever having committed genocide?
I know a few things about Jesus Christ and I can tell you Hitler was no Jesus Christ.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
4:40 pm
I’m out for the evening.
Take up your Holy Wars without me.
DannyX
February 28th, 2012
4:41 pm
“Sorry I missed so much of the back and forth – does everyone agree now that Hitler was a mere poser, one who publicly affirmed his policies were those of Christ, but who obviously was pursuing his own agenda, merely mouthing the claim to assuage the concerns of the 1930’s German equivalent of bitter clingers?”
How about the US presidents that conducted genocide against the native Americans, were they posers too? What about Lincoln and Jefferson Davis, they combined for almost a million deaths, posers too?
Do what??????
February 28th, 2012
4:44 pm
“What about Lincoln and Jefferson Davis, they combined for almost a million deaths, posers too?”
Stalin killed millions of people through communism.
Mao killed 20 million people through communism.
Arafat killed millions of Jews through Islam.
Want me to keep going, troll?
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
4:46 pm
By the way, it strikes me strange how Obama is apologetic to the Muslims abroad over an what they see as an insult, while he is persecuting and insulting the believers of Christianity and their religiousness freedoms here at home.
DannyX
February 28th, 2012
4:52 pm
“I know a few things about Jesus Christ and I can tell you Hitler was no Jesus Christ.”
Really? What did Jesus have to say about the rich?
“Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.”
Sounds like class war to me.
Inside Out
February 28th, 2012
4:52 pm
“while he is persecuting and insulting the believers of Christianity and their religiousness freedoms here at home. ”
This is the very reason that this conversation should never be had…The Bible thumpers are so off base. I guess it is another case of not being able to ses the forrest for the trees…..
Michael H. Smith
February 28th, 2012
5:07 pm
Really? What did Jesus have to say about the rich?
“Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.”
Sounds like class war to me.
************************************************
Sounds like you might want to study the bible some more in order to know what you are talking about, like beginning with the word Christian, now that you have misused and misappiled it so many times.
For what its worth the passage of scripture you referred to has nothing to do with class warfare. Now try to figure out what was meant by the term “eye of the needle”.
Maybe then you will actually know what the message Jesus was illustrating means.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
February 28th, 2012
5:12 pm
Inside Out: Now you can try to say [Hitler] was not a man of religion, but in his own words…
———————-
What religion was Stalin or Mao and how many of their own citizens did they murder? Communists do their best to eliminate religion. See how two can play your stupid little game?
It is not the beliefs or actions of the adherents that define a religion, much as religiophobic libtards would like to pretend.
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
5:13 pm
Dear DannyX @ 4:41, think you err in your analysis – Native Americans were not killed in the name of religion – it was more of a racial extermination, more akin to the Hitler extermination of Jews.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 28th, 2012
5:14 pm
DannyX = Rain-man on a blog.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
February 28th, 2012
5:15 pm
2 Thessalonians 3:10
“For even when we were with you, this we commanded you, that if any would not work, neither should he eat.”
———————————-
While you religiophobic libtards are quoting scripture, you might remember that one!
ragnar danneskjold
February 28th, 2012
5:18 pm
Dear Michael @ 4:40, well written, I agree. Think the origin of “Christian” is a bit odd, originally used as an epithet by non-believers, applied “against” those who followed Christ. Ultimately embraced, as a badge of honor. Almost the reverse of “liberal” and “socialist” and “progressive,” terms originally embraced by their followers then abandoned when the public became aware of the true meaning of that ideology, whose names are “legion.”