Poll Position: Who would be hurt worse, Romney losing Michigan or Gingrich losing Georgia?

After a couple of weeks of relatively low activity, the GOP primary process returns to hit full speed on the next two Tuesdays. Twelve states will hold primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, Feb. 28, or the Super Tuesday date, March 6. Add the Washington state caucuses in between, and we’re talking about one-quarter of all states in an eight-day span.

Two of the more prominent primaries will be Michigan’s next week and ours right here in Georgia on Super Tuesday. They’re prominent not just because of the delegates awarded — although Georgia, with 76 delegates, will be the biggest prize during this stretch — but because two of the candidates have such strong ties to them.

Who would be hurt worse by losing his "home" state primary?

  • Gingrich losing GA (114 Votes)
  • Romney losing MI (78 Votes)

Total Voters: 192

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Michigan is where Mitt Romney was born and raised while his father was a Detroit auto executive and then the state’s governor. Georgia, of course, is where Newt Gingrich lived as he rose to national prominence as a congressman and speaker of the House.

But recent polls show Rick Santorum is giving each man a run for his money in his respective “home” state. Most recent polls in Michigan, which Romney won by 9 percentage points in 2008, show the race between him and Santorum within the margin of error. Here in Georgia, polls show Gingrich’s large, early lead has narrowed to single digits.

Much of the speculation about these states has focused on whether, should Romney lose Michigan and/or Gingrich lose Georgia, either one’s candidacy would be fatally damaged. It’s unlikely that both Romney and Gingrich would drop out after losses. So, the question is: Which one would be most hurt by losing his “home” state?

That’s this week’s Poll Position question. Answer in the nearby poll and in the comments thread below.

– By Kyle Wingfield

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129 comments Add your comment

UGA 1999

February 24th, 2012
10:56 am

I am not sure who would be “hurt worse”, however I do know that Santorum would like to see both scenerios happen.

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

February 24th, 2012
11:03 am

Gingrich losing GA would be far worse, as he has little money left and no organization to compete in future contests.

Romney losing MI, given his narrow 9-point victory in 2008, wouldn’t be too bad if the loss was in the margins. However, based on recent debate performances and other campaign activity, I think Santorum’s bounce has hit it’s peak anyway.

Chuck Doberman

February 24th, 2012
11:07 am

Though Newt would probably feel the effects of a loss more deeply, in the end he really doesn’t have a Hindu’s chance in heaven of actually winning the nomination anyway so the point is moot imho.

jconservative

February 24th, 2012
11:09 am

My 2 cents.

To date Gingrich has won one state, South Carolina. So losing another state would be the norm for him, even if that state is Georgia. I do not believe he can survive the loss of Georgia.

Romney has won 4 of the 8 states to date. He does not need to lose either Michigan or Arizona next week. But he can survive a loss of either. He must win one of the two.

UGA 1999

February 24th, 2012
11:10 am

jconservative…..agreed.

Road Scholar

February 24th, 2012
11:13 am

Actually, all three of them are bad news! Santorum winning versus either one would be bad. Neither Newt or Mitt live in their “home state”, but Santurom would take this country back…way back.

UGA 1999

February 24th, 2012
11:17 am

Road….Explain what you mean by “back”?

UGA 1999

February 24th, 2012
11:21 am

Back to when unemployment was below 6%.
Back to when Gas prices were $1.89
Back to when the deficit was below $12Trillion

Sounds like a good plan to me!

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
11:25 am

If Romney loses Michigan, he’s done.

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
11:25 am

“Actually, all three of them are bad news! ”

Then again, you’re an Obama cult follower, so none of this even matters.

UGA 1999

February 24th, 2012
11:27 am

Do what….I think we are on the same side here. But how do you figure Romney will be done if he loses Michigan?

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

February 24th, 2012
11:28 am

“If Romney loses Michigan, he’s done.”

Let’s try a “why” question here, Do What???

Why do you believe he’s done if he loses Michigan?

Jefferson

February 24th, 2012
11:33 am

Whatever keeps the show going is what I’d like to see, its much like the “Young and The Restless”

Road Scholar

February 24th, 2012
11:34 am

UGA1999: Back to the dark ages.

By the way , do you always party like it’s 1999?

UGA 1999

February 24th, 2012
11:39 am

Road Scholar….”dark ages” eh….ellaborate please.

JLm

February 24th, 2012
11:47 am

In reality it doesn’t matter because Obama is the clearly going to be the winner in the presidential election, because he is simply the best option that there is to run this country right now.

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
11:48 am

“Why do you believe he’s done if he loses Michigan?”

Al Gore: 2000

Couldn’t win his home state.

Road Scholar

February 24th, 2012
11:50 am

UGA 1999: History isn’t your strong suit, is it?

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

February 24th, 2012
11:50 am

I’m sorry, but how does a one-time general election loss as Gore did in 2000 with Tennessee equate to an early primary loss in 2012 with about 80% of delegates left to choose?

UGA 1999

February 24th, 2012
11:50 am

Do what?? I would not compare Al Gore with Romney.

arnold

February 24th, 2012
12:30 pm

The only hope Gingrich has is in the south. If he can’t carry Georgia, he’s toast.

UGA 1999

February 24th, 2012
12:32 pm

arnold….I agree, even with Georgia I do not think Gingrich has a chance.

Mister.Earl

February 24th, 2012
12:39 pm

The Republicans have a hard time creating a message that resonates beyond their base, because a lot of their message is just based on nonsense.

European socialism? Really, where? A “war” on religion? Where’s the bullets? Who’s been killed? Oh, you mean it’s actually a policy disagreement over a bureaucratic insurance rule that he compromised on? Is that really how we’re defining “war” nowadays?

The entirety of their message gets animated heads nodding in agreement among people who would not have voted for Obama anyway. As for the rest of us, they might need to craft a message that seems somewhat rooted in reality.

Mister.Earl

February 24th, 2012
12:41 pm

The larger issue facing the Republican Party is how it will respond to political market forces, to the pressure of changes in public opinion. The party could open up beyond its core believers to accommodate old-school Republican moderates and hold on to its libertarians and still have decent size, strength and power.

But the country is going through a profound restructuring in moral and economic thinking and the danger for Republicans is that their current coalition might become obsolete. If the party doesn’t adapt, the alternative is that its power centers — the Christian right, anti-immigration forces, and proponents of policies that benefit the affluent at the expense of the less well-off — will refuse to adjust, in which case the party risks going the way of the Studebaker.

Thomas B. Edsall, a professor of journalism at Columbia University

K.Conway

February 24th, 2012
12:43 pm

If Obama wins…we lose the country !

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
12:44 pm

“I’m sorry, but how does a one-time general election loss as Gore did in 2000 with Tennessee equate to an early primary loss in 2012 with about 80% of delegates left to choose?”

You totally missed my point. Not surprised at all.

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
12:45 pm

“I would not compare Al Gore with Romney.”

They have a lot in common. They both believe in global scamming, both wanted universal healthcare….

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

February 24th, 2012
12:45 pm

Who is hurt worse?

Americans, whenever a Democrat wins.

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
12:45 pm

“The Republicans have a hard time creating a message that resonates beyond their base”

Guess you missed 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2010.

jconservative

February 24th, 2012
12:50 pm

“If Obama wins…we lose the country !”

Then you should vote for the Republican candidate who will be able to carry the independent vote.
The independent vote that always decides the general election. The independent vote that went for Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2004.

Acer706

February 24th, 2012
12:50 pm

What is Obama’s campaign platform? Does he even have one?

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
12:51 pm

“Then you should vote for the Republican candidate who will be able to carry the independent vote.”

Obama has lost the independent vote. Should be pretty easy for whoever wins the GOP nomination.

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
12:51 pm

“What is Obama’s campaign platform? ”

Blame we can believe in.

WaitAMinute

February 24th, 2012
12:52 pm

Mitt is scary, the more he speaks, the more he makes Bush sound like an intellectual.
Mitt = desperation.

WaitAMinute

February 24th, 2012
12:57 pm

How does Romney cut all taxes, increase military spending and balance budget?

Acer706

February 24th, 2012
1:00 pm

WaitAMinute:

By proposing to Cut Government Spending! Duh.

Jefferson

February 24th, 2012
1:03 pm

The GOP policies will not and have never worked. Sorry boy, you’ve been fooled again.

Linda

February 24th, 2012
1:06 pm

Hope & Change is now Cope & Pain.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

February 24th, 2012
1:07 pm

Free market capitalism is what has worked for 200+ years.

WaitAMinute

February 24th, 2012
1:09 pm

Acer706: Sure! When has a republican every done that?
We deceive, you believe.

Will

February 24th, 2012
1:12 pm

The thrice-divorced, self-confessed adulterer who was a frequent critic of President Reagan is no longer a viable candidate for the nomination, therefore a loss in Georgia means little or nothing. This “legend in his own mind” is not going to be the nominee.

A loss in Michigan by the well-funded candidate of the republican establishment who is the appointed front runner by the republican television network and the Drudge Report would be devastating.

You better get used to it – Rick Santorium is going to be your nominee. I think he can “flip” Indiana and North Carolina but will lose Arizona and President Obama will easily be re-elected.

ramorywebb

February 24th, 2012
1:16 pm

After his debate performance it is unlikely Santorum will beat anybody.

By the time Romney’s Pac uses the ammunition Rick so willing delivered even Ron Paul will be beating Santorum.

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
1:20 pm

“When has a republican every done that?”

1980, 1984, 1994

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
1:21 pm

“Mitt is scary, the more he speaks, the more he makes Bush sound like an intellectual.”

If Mitt scares you then you have real issues.

curious

February 24th, 2012
1:23 pm

UGA 1999

If you did actually graduate from UGA, pray none of the school administration are reading these blogs.

Diploma recall!

UGA 1999

February 24th, 2012
1:24 pm

Curious….Is that all you’ve got? Wow you guys are so easy.

WaitAMinute

February 24th, 2012
1:26 pm

Not really, I don’t like phony’s.

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
1:31 pm

“If you did actually graduate from UGA, pray none of the school administration are reading these blogs.”

“pray none of the ”

You should pay more attention to your own gramatical errors, simpleton.

Do what??????

February 24th, 2012
1:33 pm

“How does Romney cut all taxes, increase military spending and balance budget?”

A: No one, not even Romney, has said anything about cutting all taxes.

B: Increase military spending by decreasing spending on government pet projects.

C: You balance the budget the way Newt and Clinton did back in the 90s.

ragnar danneskjold

February 24th, 2012
1:36 pm

Cannot improve on the analysis of Tiberius @ 11:03, says everything I think.