It’s been a couple of weeks since the Obama administration announced it would force religious-affiliated entities such as hospitals and colleges — most notably those tied to the Catholic church — to cover contraception, abortifacients and sterilization in the health insurance plans they provide their employees. And ever since, much of the commentary (including some of my own) has focused on the apparent mistake President Obama was making in alienating a large chunk of the electorate. Why would he make such an unforced error?
Maybe he thinks he can bait the GOP into making an error of its own.
After a couple of years of hearing that social issues would take a back seat in this election to the country’s soft economy and dire fiscal situation, suddenly social issues are all the rage:
The result, predictably and understandably, has been a circling of social conservatives’ wagons. And you know who they’ve circled around? Rick Santorum.
Now, think back a few more weeks. You might recall George Stephanopoulos invoked Santorum’s name and beliefs when launching the lengthy series of questions about contraception during a Jan. 7 debate in New Hampshire — a line of questioning that, at the time, seemed to be completely out of left field. Dick Morris, who certainly knows a thing or two about incumbent presidents trying to win re-election, has gone so far as to accuse Stephanopoulos of asking the questions “under orders.” He didn’t specify whose “orders,” but in the same interview (with Sean Hannity on Fox News) Morris referred to Stephanopoulos as a “paid Democratic hit-man”:
They want to create the impression that the Republicans will ban contraception, which is totally insane, but they’re floating it out and they’re bringing it out there. And this move on Obama’s part was part of injecting that issue.
To be sure, Morris did get one thing wrong: He said this “impression” arose “after Minnesota and Colorado which was [sic] Santorum’s victories.” On the contrary, Santorum’s triple victories (also in Missouri’s non-binding primary) came Feb. 7 — one week after the Komen decision was revealed and two and a half weeks after the contraception mandate was announced.
There are no smoking guns here. But if — I repeat, if — there was an intent by the left to give Santorum a boost in the GOP contest, with the premise that his social views would turn off a number of moderate and independent voters in November, the boost sure appears to have occurred:
That’s an average swing of 19 points in Santorum’s favor within a week or two — the same week or two that just happened to feature the return of social issues to the fore of the national news and GOP primary politics. All three polls to which I referred were conducted by Public Policy Polling. Was the pollster simply bad? If so, it was a sudden drop in accuracy: In New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, PPP’s pre-primary polls proved very predictive of the final results. Even in Iowa, another state that held caucuses (which are harder to predict and poll than primaries) and where Santorum also was a surprise winner, PPP didn’t see anything like a 19-point swing.
Even if you don’t buy the idea that the Obama administration and its allies are actively nudging the GOP electorate in the direction of a social conservative like Santorum, they certainly aren’t doing anything to take social issues out of the headlines.
But would a Santorum nomination really be an error by the GOP?
Just today, the same pollster, PPP, published a national poll finding Santorum fares better against Obama than Romney does. It’s a small edge, and I’m not sure it even qualifies as an “edge”: He trails the president 49-44, whereas Romney is behind by 7 points at 49-42. But PPP notes that, even in this tumultuous GOP race, “Santorum’s the first insurgent to challenge Romney on [the electability] front.”
PPP goes on to note:
Santorum’s net favorability is 21 points better than Romney’s. Santorum’s at -7 (39/46), while Romney is at -28 (29/57). That’s mostly because Republicans like Santorum a lot better (+40 at 62/22 to Romney’s +2 at 43/41). But Santorum also does a good deal better with independents, coming in at -6 (40/46) to Romney’s -23 (32/55). In the head to heads Obama leads Romney by 9 with independents, but has only a 4 point advantage on Santorum with that group.
A close call with independents and a more-fired-up GOP base sounds more like the Bush recipe for winning in 2000 and 2004 than the McCain formula for losing in 2008.
We’ll see how Santorum holds up to the Romney attack ads that are coming. But there are signs that his emergence could overturn a lot of the conventional wisdom about him — including any desire by the left to see him as Obama’s opponent come this fall.
– By Kyle Wingfield
239 comments Add your comment
Chief Media Urologist
February 15th, 2012
8:08 am
Barry
Tell that to the guy with heart disease trying to get health insurance. Your disdain for your fellow American is as disgusting as your irreverent and lunatic posts.
GT
February 15th, 2012
8:15 am
The Republican Party has one predictability. They will not compromise. They have clogged Congress up with this childishness because they felt they had a mandate from the people who elected them. Obama and the left have simply looked at the polls and have seen the results of the Tea Party has put the Congress in the lowest ratings ever seen in Washington. It is the only consistent poll, unlike the Republican Presidential nomination merry go round ,that changes on a dime, this one ain’t going away. In fact this inconsistency is rather hard on a Democratic campaign ,normally very organized, to set a general election business plan, so they involve themselves and organize the Republican primary for the opposition. Now how do we translate this dissatisfaction into the general election? Put a Tea Party candidate head on head with Obama. Santorum works in the Republican primary because the other candidates cannot debate him straight up and keep the limited base. It would be like Brigham Young debating in Salt Lake City.
Santorum is Eeyore the donkey when it comes to style points. He sits in the middle of the road and refuses to let traffic by. He will represent Congress like Col Sanders represents chicken. Once the public is guided through the explanation in the general election and shown the model of a do nothing, Johnny one note, who represents a minority of this country, the decision will be very easy. The Democrats unlike me who wish the Republicans would grow up, see the handicap and explode it. This is the leadership this country needs, not emotional actors that can be tricked so easily. If the Democrats can set the Republicans up so easily, the world will have a new playroom if Eeyore is elected. They played with Bush till his last day in office, they don’t with Obama, the body of bin laden makes that statement loud and clear.
JB
February 15th, 2012
8:30 am
Obama’s worst nightmare unfolding. Iran has loaded fuel rods as reported this AM. Thus, has crossed a line. Israel I’m sure in meeting as we speak making plans. Obama,Axelrod not Ms. Jarrett can stop what I think is gonna happen, by June. And when it does, look for gas to hit 6, maybe 7 bucks a gallon and a big jump in unemployment….Thus curtains for Obama….And when he leaves Israel alone with Iran, that will finish off the Jewish vote. The gas price will kill the uninformed vote, the the 11-12% unemployment rate will kill moderates and fence sitters. Toast.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
February 15th, 2012
8:33 am
You don’t go out and get health insurance after you’re sick, Einstein.
You’re thinking of some kind of welfare handout plan.
How much did you donate to indigent health care last year? Hypocrite.
LeeH1
February 15th, 2012
8:43 am
Manipulating the Republican voters is really easy to do, and has been done for years and years. All you need to do is use the right words. Heck, none of those Bozos ever care what you really do, just that you mouth the right words.
International bankers have been swaying the Republicans back and forth for a long time. After all, any attempt to hold bankers accountable for the recession is considered class warfare and un-American. Uh-huh!
Racists have been playing with the Republican hoi-poilloi for years. Much of their anger was whipped up over birth certificates to show Obama is an alien, in addition to just being black.
Churches have been playing the Republicans as tools for a long time. The Catholic church sees the Republicans as their replacement for the Spanish Inquisition. The Evangelicals see the Republican party as their money machine. The Mormons see their opportuity to become accepted as normal, and perhaps even Christian. Any attempt to confront this bad form of politics is called a “War on Religion” and requires the cannon-fodder of the Republican party to stand forth as Crusaders. And of course, they all know that Obama is secretly Moslem, even though the same people attacked him for listening to an Evangelical Christian preacher.
Gender politics can always bring out a crowd of Republicans, always willing to do the bidding of their male leaders. As long as it oppresses women and girls, it will be supported by the Republicans because “it is only to protect women” that they want to oppress them. Go home lady, and get in the kitchen and be pregnant.
Any advertiser can see how easy it is to manipulate Republicans,. Their only emotion, like the Moslems, is that of self-righteous rage.
retiredds
February 15th, 2012
8:50 am
Kyle, written like a true conservative. When your party makes a mistake or can’t get its act together find a way to blame it on the opposition. Your party has created its mess and only your party can clean up its own mess. But Republicans aren’t very good at that. They want others to clean up their mess and then take the credit. The fact of the matter is the Republicans have nothing to offer so they lean toward the sideshow issues: abortion, same sex marriage, contraception, stonewalling immigration reform, claiming the higher moral ground (a farce), etc., etc. As we get closer to the day when Republicans choose their candidate and then on to the election it will be fun to watch how the Republicans will spin (distort/fabricate) their message (talking points).
JB
February 15th, 2012
8:58 am
LEEH1………………You ought to take a breath and read your post. It it the most closed minded, left thinking infused, far left talking point riddled piece I think I’ve ever read. It’s full of opinion taken right off the vile, hateful left wing blogs. Most of “those Republicans” you speak of are in uniform today protecting your opinionated butt as to spew that nonsense.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 15th, 2012
9:03 am
It’s always amazing to read left wing rants such as LeeH1 and GT on a conservative blog.
They have their xenophobic talking points down to the N-th degree, and prove once again that the left hasn’t got people who can think for themselves.
What
February 15th, 2012
9:09 am
Faux News: we deceive and you believe.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 15th, 2012
9:12 am
What, I suggest you actually READ this analysis of the news coverage for the 2008 election cycle, and then defend your “Faux News” comment.
http://www.cmpa.com/pdf/media_monitor_jan_2009.pdf
Chief Media Urologist
February 15th, 2012
9:16 am
JB
Only the sadly misinformed would blame Obama for the events in Iran, Israel and OPEC.
How degenerate of you to wish upon us and the world such a course of events, in order to backdoor prop up your own miserable candidate.
kate
February 15th, 2012
9:16 am
Could someone on the right answer this for me? I really want to know, this is not a question to bait anyone. What is so upsetting about a health care mandate when states require us (if we drive) to have car insurance? Isn’t that a mandate too? Why is one okay now (car) but not the health care one? I would really like to know how the right differentiates between the two of them. Is it just that we don’t have to drive (though about 90% of us do)? Or ???? Can someone help me to understand this?
GT
February 15th, 2012
9:16 am
JB the wonderful thing about Obama is what is one man’s nightmare is another man’s opportunity. We have been dancing around Iran for decades. Where do you really think Iran is going with this? You really think they want a war with us? The one thing we are good at doing militarily is fighting a known country, a defined enemy. The press have underestimated a very clever man in Obama, allied with maybe even a more clever country, Israel, who unlike the Republicans leaves all doors open for an answer and thinks very clearly on these matters not letting emotions handicap or make his thinking predictable.
Just like the GOP anticipates a poor economy in November and are disappointed, this my friend will be another disappointment. Watch the man work take notes. Jews will be naming their children after him before this is over. You people and your dramas, you are too addicted to reality television. In real life smart people win more than they lose, I like the odds for us.
joe
February 15th, 2012
9:18 am
All citizens who can think for themselves and not reside on the Democrat plantation need to vote for whomever the GOP nominee is, plain and simple. I don’t really care who wins as all of them would be a better president than our current marxist-in-chief…and the political party does not matter in this election. If you are a Democrat who can think for yourself, an independent, GOP, tea party, libertarian or whatever, vote for the GOP candidate so we can rid ourselves of Barack Hussain Obama once and for all.
barking frog
February 15th, 2012
9:19 am
It should be plain to everyone by now, President Obama is
running the GOP Primary.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 15th, 2012
9:23 am
“What is so upsetting about a health care mandate when states require us (if we drive) to have car insurance? Isn’t that a mandate too?”
Yes, kate, it is a mandate. However, the difference is that the government builds and maintains the roads, and therefore has a certain amount of rights to make the rules.
They do not own us, our doctors nor our hospitals, therefore the health mandate is unConstitutional and problematic for many of us.
JPP
February 15th, 2012
9:24 am
I am a DEM, but feel Obama could still lose to Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich. Maybe I am just a realist.
markie mark
February 15th, 2012
9:24 am
Hey Kate….heres your answer. I can make the decision to NOT drive and take a bus. I cannot make a decision to ignore the health care mandate. Happy now?
markie mark
February 15th, 2012
9:25 am
but you already knew that from your post……just dont want to face the fact that with car insurance you still have a choice….
JB
February 15th, 2012
9:30 am
The trash flowing out of the left wing hate sights are unnerving. It’s like watching a Zombie movie. But I do realize he’s the first guy in the white house you guys have had who doesn’t try to hide it. You can’t run and campaign on this stuff, so having your guy in there saying one thing and doing the opposite must be a little “high’ for you. I can just imagine a guy who is all about higher taxes, bigger government, cradle to grave entitlements, Union raping take all the profits, Government healthcare, gutting the military, Gay rights, suppressing religion and banning guns is just a wet dream a night.
JB
February 15th, 2012
9:35 am
Israel attacks Iran. Within 2 weeks gas is at 6-7 bucks a gallon. There goes the uniformed vote. Obama tells Israel good luck. There goes the Jewish vote. Within 2 months, unemployment spikes to 11-13 %, there goes the moderates and fence sitters…………………….But to read on here, this is all the GOP’s fault. Rich.
Partisay
February 15th, 2012
9:38 am
When Markie Mark gets sick and needs medical help without insurance, he will want the government to help him out…or his cost will just get passed along to all the other people who seek medical care. Somebody has to pay for it. How does he think the hospitals will get their money for taking care of him? They will get it back by charging $8 for an aspirin – since he got his free when he was being treated.
Doesn’t sound too “responsible” does it?
williebkind
February 15th, 2012
9:40 am
Santorum is a better man than Obama! Santorum is a better American than Obama. Santorum is better for America unless you believe in vile disgusting behavior or a government controlled religion or an economy ran by the government. If you are not liberal or conservative and can not see who is the better choice then stay at home and watch a zombie movie on election day. You could better serve your country watching tv.
RAMZAD
February 15th, 2012
9:42 am
Only the Republican Tea Party has not arrived in the new century. Women want contraception. Women want abortion services. Women want family planning. Women want reproductive control of their bodies.
The RTP wants to burn women at the stake for any decision that counter RTP dogma and group think proclamations. Obama is just sharp enough and reasonable enough to recognize that not all women are RTP drones, some are actually independent people with their on brain. As long as the RTP and the Catholic Church want to keep women in chains there are going to be problems for those two cabals.
MiltonMan
February 15th, 2012
9:42 am
Ernest – typical Lib who blasts the Catolic church as being in the corner with the cons. Pal, how about reading beyond your 3rd grade comprehension skills. The Catholic nuts typically vote for Democratic candidates. You guys are stuck with the pope worshipping clowns.
yuzeyurbrane
February 15th, 2012
9:43 am
Kyle, now you are just getting weird. Conspiracy theories?? The folks in the White House are pretty smart but not smart enough to have created such a master plan. Anyone who has been around politics knows that often things just happen and that the good politician is one who is smart enough to recognize them and react quickly. That is true of both Republicans and Democrats. Obama in this instance was just smart enough to to turn lemons into lemonade.
Do what??????
February 15th, 2012
9:44 am
Another day, another solar energy company goes bankrupt. Stupid left wingers.
GT
February 15th, 2012
9:44 am
Kate excellent question. One thing Republicans love is insurance is controlled by local government. Oxendine was their man here in Georgia. He granted himself a insurance licenses without taking mandatory tests. This from a party and state that are joined at the hip and think they are more equipped to handle the illegal immigration laws than the feds, when they transparently breed corruption.
The country will legalize drugs in the next few years. The war on drugs is ,like most wars we fight, compromised at best and very damaging to the country as any war lost is plus we cannot afford it. The one thing the drug laws did, very similar to the IRS, and Guantánamo Bay, it uniformly locked trouble makers up and got them off the street, the drug thing was just an excuse. Now this mechanism is on its way out. Like the driver’s license, the insurance card will be one way to account for the masses. Even the most evil person needs medicine. Instead of going to a free client and not identifying him or herself they are now treated by a identification system, may even be DNA collected there. Like a doctor having to report gunshot wounds, they will have to report what appears to be mental problems and signs of trouble. Like dental records there are public files of these people and they just can’t disappear in the woodwork which is happening in America today. We are paying most of this cost now, just not putting a id on the patients, and like car insurance if you are abusing your privilege we know about it and take dangerous people off the street by not being insurable.
Do what??????
February 15th, 2012
9:45 am
“Faux News: we deceive and you believe.”
Left wingers: obsessed with Fox News since 2000.
Get a life.
JB
February 15th, 2012
9:45 am
I seem to remember Clinton Vetoing the bill put in front on him to allow Oil drilling in Anwar, Alaska….over 10 year ago…and he vetoed it. The richest oil reserves on the planet. Our oil, which would be flowing now…..And we are held hostage by the middle east, and our entire economy, because of some left wing loons putting pressure on Libs not to “disturb” 500 acres in the middle of 5 million acres, in a frozen tundra, where no man goes with in 500 miles. And the leverage of the middle east would be totally gone. What dumb ass’s.
Do what??????
February 15th, 2012
9:46 am
“You really think they want a war with us?”
Um…yeah. Considering Iran is in bed with Russia and China.
MiltonMan
February 15th, 2012
9:46 am
RAMZAD:
“As long as the RTP and the Catholic Church…”
Hey ignorant one, look up who the Catholics voted for in the 2008 presidentail elections & then get back with us.
Libs are so clueless that do not even comprehend that the pseudo-religion known as Catholicism is in their back pocket.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 15th, 2012
9:48 am
“Only the Republican Tea Party has not arrived in the new century.”
News flash, RAMZAD. The Tea Party is NOT the Republican party. Surveys show that Tea Party people come from the ranks of Republicans, Democrat and independents. But stick with those media talking points.
“Women want contraception. Women want abortion services. Women want family planning. Women want reproductive control of their bodies.”
And wit the exception of the last comment, no one is attempting to deny these services to women. They simply do not wish to have to pay for them.
Dirty Dawg
February 15th, 2012
9:52 am
willieb…if you really believe what you just said about Santorum then you are one sick puppy. As for the ‘Winger’s’ question that the Democrats are ‘baiting’ – as in manipulating – the Republicans into nominating the Neanderthal…if I thought the Dem leadership was that smart I’d be a happy man. Frankly, I’ll be satisfied if they’re just smart enough to realize that if you give the Repubs enough rope they’re certain to hang themselves. Now if they – the Dems – can just figure out how to keep ‘em from stealing this one like they stole ‘00 and ‘04, I’ll be downright giddy.
MarkV
February 15th, 2012
9:52 am
kate @9:16 am
kate,
All you can expect here as answer(s) to you question are the usual arguments, such as that we drive on government roads, or that you have a choice of driving or not driving. Both are nonsense. There or really no “government roads.” The roads were paid by people of this country, and belong to people of this country. Moreover, the car insurance is not any kind of payment for the use of those roads.
We may or may not have a real choice of driving or not driving (most of us do not have a real choice), but that is irrelevant anyway. We certainly do not have a choice of being or not being sick or injured, and if we get sick or injured and do not have health insurance, other people will be forced to pay or bills, because the society will not let people to die or suffer.
Stacey
February 15th, 2012
9:53 am
Women want contraception. Women want abortion services. Women want family planning. Women want reproductive control of their bodies.
They have reproductive control of their bodies. The fact that they aren’t smart enough to control their male counterparts is a personal problem. Abortion and contraceptives are as close as their nearest health center or Planned Parenthood facility.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 15th, 2012
10:00 am
“There or really no “government roads.””
Typical liberal denial of reality, MarkV, and par for the course for you.
Did “people” take the land through eminent domain? No, government did. Did “people” let the contracts to construct the roads? No, government did. Do “people” make and enforce the laws regarding the use of the roads that government built? No, the law enforcement arm of government does.
Nonsense? Look in the mirror, son.
GT
February 15th, 2012
10:06 am
MarkV nailed it. Republicans make issues that don’t exist then debate. We fought a war over non existing weapons of mass destruction, we now have a insurance issue that we pay for either way and is much more accountable under Obama. There is a real world going on out there somewhere that needs attending to. The Republican Party has defaulted the obligation of a second party, and become strictly for entertainment.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 15th, 2012
10:10 am
“The Republican Party has defaulted the obligation of a second party, and become strictly for entertainment.”
Yeah, GT, which is why (as Kyle pointed out yesterday) that Republicans control 29 governorships and 27 legislatures across the country. Of course, in your “mind” that makes them not viable and “entertainment” value only.
Apparently a majority of voters disagree with you.
interested observer
February 15th, 2012
10:13 am
Polling consistently shows that Americans, including a majority of Catholics, favor free access to birth control. The Obama decision may rile the far right, but for most voters it’s a non-issue.
And Santorum fares better in polls at the moment because he’s still not as well known as Romney. If he gains traction, it will be short-lived, and Romney will get the nomination largely by default.
The GOP field is incredibly weak. It says something that these candidates are the best the GOP can find. Any of them makes Obama look good in comparison.
Do what??????
February 15th, 2012
10:15 am
“We fought a war over non existing weapons of mass destruction’
And you left off that Biden, Hillary and most other dems voted for that war.
“we now have a insurance issue that we pay for either way and is much more accountable under Obama.”
Yet you, and every other left winger never once read the 2000 page bill.
“The Republican Party has defaulted the obligation of a second party”
Guess you slept through the 2010 midterms.
Jefferson
February 15th, 2012
10:15 am
Now it has become evident that the tea reps also have shown no credibility, no offsets for the spending. They too are broken.
Do what??????
February 15th, 2012
10:16 am
Hey idiot left wingers, why all the fuss over condoms? Why not make toothpaste, deodorant etc all free?
Care to elaborate, simpletons?
Do what??????
February 15th, 2012
10:16 am
“Now it has become evident that the tea reps also have shown no credibility, no offsets for the spending”
This post gets my nod for “dumbest post of the day.”
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 15th, 2012
10:18 am
“Now it has become evident that the tea reps also have shown no credibility, no offsets for the spending.”
And you’d be dogging them if they didn’t compromise, Jefferson. Talk about no credibility . . .
MarkV
February 15th, 2012
10:19 am
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate! @10:00 am
As usual you exhibit a total lack of elementary logic and understanding, which would allow you to understand the difference between “owning something” and taking action (“take the land through eminent domain, let the contracts to construct the roads, enforce the laws”), for which we, the people, have delegated the power to the government to act for us.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 15th, 2012
10:19 am
“Polling consistently shows that Americans, including a majority of Catholics, favor free access to birth control.”
Another reason to cherish the fact that we are a nation governed by a Constitution, and not by mob rule.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
February 15th, 2012
10:22 am
“As usual you exhibit a total lack of elementary logic and understanding, which would allow you to understand the difference between “owning something” and taking action”
Well then, MarkV, why don’t you go out and try to repair that road that needs fixing on your own, or better yet, try to remove a road way that you don’t like.
Then come back and tell us all who owns them. There’s a reason you’re part of the “dumb masses” when you subscribe to the liberal philosophy.
MarkV
February 15th, 2012
10:38 am
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate! @10:22 am: “Well then, MarkV, why don’t you go out and try to repair that road that needs fixing on your own, or better yet, try to remove a road way that you don’t like. Then come back and tell us all who owns them.”
Go on, go on, keep proving that you understand nothing. You are becoming hilarious. If you do not understand such simple concepts as a difference between owning something collectively (the people owning the roads), and action done on that our behalf by the institution we have given the right to do so, why are you getting into a conversation among adults?
Partisay
February 15th, 2012
10:41 am
Tiberius at 9:48…”News flash, RAMZAD. The Tea Party is NOT the Republican party. Surveys show that Tea Party people come from the ranks of Republicans, Democrat and independents. But stick with those media talking points.
Speaking of surveys….”The survey of 3,013 adults who declared themselves part of the movement were overwhelmingly white (80 per cent) and Christian (81 per cent). The poll found activists were mostly social conservatives, rather than the general belief that they are libertarians. Almost two-thirds said that abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, while only 18 per cent said they supported gay marriage.
It also showed the movement was overwhelmingly aligned with the Republican party, contrary to assertions from organisers that it is not partisan. Eighty-three per cent of Tea Party members who are registered voters next month are aligned with the Republican party.
Hmmmmmmmmm……..