2012 Tuesday: Are Obama and the left baiting GOP into nominating Santorum?
It’s been a couple of weeks since the Obama administration announced it would force religious-affiliated entities such as hospitals and colleges — most notably those tied to the Catholic church — to cover contraception, abortifacients and sterilization in the health insurance plans they provide their employees. And ever since, much of the commentary (including some of my own) has focused on the apparent mistake President Obama was making in alienating a large chunk of the electorate. Why would he make such an unforced error?
Maybe he thinks he can bait the GOP into making an error of its own.
After a couple of years of hearing that social issues would take a back seat in this election to the country’s soft economy and dire fiscal situation, suddenly social issues are all the rage:
- There was the contraception mandate that came Jan. 20.
- While those flames were still burning hotly, the decision by Susan G. Komen For the Cure to stop awarding grants to Planned Parenthood clinics was made public Jan. 31. Note my phrasing here: “decision … was made public.” We now know the decision had been communicated to Planned Parenthood weeks earlier. I recommend re-reading the original Associated Press story breaking the news with that fact in mind: It certainly reads like a story prompted by information from Planned Parenthood, with Komen reacting to Planned Parenthood’s reaction to Komen’s decision. It would appear the decision was revealed at a time of Planned Parenthood’s choosing, and Planned Parenthood is not exactly known as a friend of the Republican Party.
The result, predictably and understandably, has been a circling of social conservatives’ wagons. And you know who they’ve circled around? Rick Santorum.
Now, think back a few more weeks. You might recall George Stephanopoulos invoked Santorum’s name and beliefs when launching the lengthy series of questions about contraception during a Jan. 7 debate in New Hampshire — a line of questioning that, at the time, seemed to be completely out of left field. Dick Morris, who certainly knows a thing or two about incumbent presidents trying to win re-election, has gone so far as to accuse Stephanopoulos of asking the questions “under orders.” He didn’t specify whose “orders,” but in the same interview (with Sean Hannity on Fox News) Morris referred to Stephanopoulos as a “paid Democratic hit-man”:
They want to create the impression that the Republicans will ban contraception, which is totally insane, but they’re floating it out and they’re bringing it out there. And this move on Obama’s part was part of injecting that issue.
To be sure, Morris did get one thing wrong: He said this “impression” arose “after Minnesota and Colorado which was [sic] Santorum’s victories.” On the contrary, Santorum’s triple victories (also in Missouri’s non-binding primary) came Feb. 7 — one week after the Komen decision was revealed and two and a half weeks after the contraception mandate was announced.
There are no smoking guns here. But if — I repeat, if — there was an intent by the left to give Santorum a boost in the GOP contest, with the premise that his social views would turn off a number of moderate and independent voters in November, the boost sure appears to have occurred:
- In Colorado, which Mitt Romney won by 42 percentage points in 2008, Santorum went from trailing Romney by 14 points on Feb. 4 to beating him by 5 points on Feb. 7.
- In Minnesota, which Romney won by 19 points four years ago, Santorum went from a statistical tie with Romney on Feb. 4 to an 18-point win on Feb. 7.
- In Missouri, where Romney ran a very strong third place (less than 4 points behind winner John McCain) in 2008, Santorum went from leading by 11 points in late January to winning by 30 points.
That’s an average swing of 19 points in Santorum’s favor within a week or two — the same week or two that just happened to feature the return of social issues to the fore of the national news and GOP primary politics. All three polls to which I referred were conducted by Public Policy Polling. Was the pollster simply bad? If so, it was a sudden drop in accuracy: In New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, PPP’s pre-primary polls proved very predictive of the final results. Even in Iowa, another state that held caucuses (which are harder to predict and poll than primaries) and where Santorum also was a surprise winner, PPP didn’t see anything like a 19-point swing.
Even if you don’t buy the idea that the Obama administration and its allies are actively nudging the GOP electorate in the direction of a social conservative like Santorum, they certainly aren’t doing anything to take social issues out of the headlines.
But would a Santorum nomination really be an error by the GOP?
Just today, the same pollster, PPP, published a national poll finding Santorum fares better against Obama than Romney does. It’s a small edge, and I’m not sure it even qualifies as an “edge”: He trails the president 49-44, whereas Romney is behind by 7 points at 49-42. But PPP notes that, even in this tumultuous GOP race, “Santorum’s the first insurgent to challenge Romney on [the electability] front.”
PPP goes on to note:
Santorum’s net favorability is 21 points better than Romney’s. Santorum’s at -7 (39/46), while Romney is at -28 (29/57). That’s mostly because Republicans like Santorum a lot better (+40 at 62/22 to Romney’s +2 at 43/41). But Santorum also does a good deal better with independents, coming in at -6 (40/46) to Romney’s -23 (32/55). In the head to heads Obama leads Romney by 9 with independents, but has only a 4 point advantage on Santorum with that group.
A close call with independents and a more-fired-up GOP base sounds more like the Bush recipe for winning in 2000 and 2004 than the McCain formula for losing in 2008.
We’ll see how Santorum holds up to the Romney attack ads that are coming. But there are signs that his emergence could overturn a lot of the conventional wisdom about him — including any desire by the left to see him as Obama’s opponent come this fall.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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239 comments Add your comment
Do what??????
February 14th, 2012
6:08 pm
“HYPOCRACY”
If you’re gonna put down other folks at least have the decency of using spell check.
Thanks
GodHatesTrash, Superstar
February 14th, 2012
6:20 pm
Having Rick Santorum as your president would be like having Curly (I Whine and Whine) or Linda as your president.
He’s a loud-mouthed sanctimonious hypocritical loser, and certifiably insane.
Do what??????
February 14th, 2012
6:24 pm
“He’s a loud-mouthed sanctimonious hypocritical loser, and certifiably insane.
Sounds exactly like the current pres.
john
February 14th, 2012
6:28 pm
Linda @6:08pm
“The GOP is not against birth control. Contraceptives can be obtained for free or bought for a mere $9 per month.”
GOP is not against birth control? Please explain that when they are pushing for the personhood amendment in the states.
‘”Don’t women’s rights include responsibilities?”
Sure, aren’t some of those responsibilities include family planning and limiting the number of children (via birth control) they can handle
Linda
February 14th, 2012
6:44 pm
John@6:28, Perhaps you should research the difference between contraception & abortion. Personhood pertains to abortion.
http://www.personhoodusa.com/what-is-personhood
Yes, women have rights & the responsibilities for “family planning & limiting the number of children they can handle.”
Linda
February 14th, 2012
6:54 pm
Mr. Trash@6:20, Bless your heart. Thank you for endorsing me for your president, especially today on my 36th wedding anniversary.
MB
February 14th, 2012
6:57 pm
Dang I hope the GOP nominates Santorum. The electoral college map will look like ‘64 if not worse come Wednesday morning in November. I was planning to vote for Paul in the GA GOP primary, but now I think I’ll proudly cast my crossover vote for Santorum.
MarkV
February 14th, 2012
7:00 pm
When debating the feud between Catholic archbishops and the Administration, many (including Kyle) mix together and conflate two different and separate issues. One issue is the whether the government has the right and should regulate the health insurance plans, and force them to include certain provisions, in this case preventive care. In Kyle’s opinion, apparently not, as he wrote (February 13th, 201@6:23 pm) that such benefits as part of compensation are something the employers should select as they want.
I hate to be the one to tell Kyle and others like him, but the society has already decided this issue, and left them far behind. They are on the wrong side of history, they are the minor part of the society, and they are on the wrong side of already settled laws.
The other, separate issue regarding religion is a matter of principle, not of a question whether birth control is the right thing to do and about interpretation of the Bible and other moral issues. It is a question whether ANY recognized church can proclaim ANY moral opinion to supersede labor laws for people employed in institutions associated with that church. The specific of that faith cannot play a role because the worst thing a government could do would be to play an arbiter in religious faith. That would be the real infringement on the First Amendment. I wonder how those writing loftily about Constitution in this case would act if instead of the Catholic church it would be about Moslems and their faith.
The regulations discussed here do not force anybody to DO anything against their faith. Paying for something like insurance has nothing to do with a freedom to exercise faith. The Obama Administration is understandably playing politics, not wanting to lose votes, instead of saying to the bishops what should be said, that the law is the law, and they can take their objections and get lost.
TRUTH
February 14th, 2012
7:27 pm
So, you Righties think that you have a chance with Santorum or Romney, huh…?
The circular firing squad that is the GOP field of candidates, have dwindled to 4. With Newt and that Crazy Uncle losing steam, daily. Willard and Ricky are trying to outright one another, playing to the fringe base. I’ve never seen primaries with such poor showings for a Presidential nomination in ANY party. But if you believe there is a chance, for Willard or Ricky, in the words of Journey…”Don’t Stop Believin.”
The entire GOP is toast……with burned edges…
Cutty
February 14th, 2012
7:48 pm
Ironic that all these chickenhawks commenting about how wrong abortion is was clamoring for two wars while eating freedom fries. Wingfield doesn’t have a clue. The GOP has some terrible candidates, and he (Wingfield) is finally realizing it. He just has to blame the democratic party for it like republicans (Pavlov’s dog) do.
i got some santorum on my duvet
February 14th, 2012
7:52 pm
it’s smelly and gross. reminds me of the candidate
Long time caller, first time listener...
February 14th, 2012
7:54 pm
Kyle,
First you see surreptitious messages from Clint Eastwood during the Super Bowl and now this Dick Morris inspired nonsense. Dude, there’s paranoid and then there’s whatever you are. Take a deep breath and accept that the right has nothing to run on.
Linda
February 14th, 2012
7:55 pm
If science determined that bras prevented breast cancer, would the fed. govt. be within its constitutional authority to require employers to provide bras, that is, for free?
Not to be discriminatory, would the fed. govt. be within its constitution authority to require employers to provide jock straps for men, that is, for free?
Martin Williams
February 14th, 2012
8:07 pm
If the GOP is stupid enough to make Santorum their candidate, it tells you a lot about todays GOP. If they think Romney another Ronald Reagan will beat Obama, they are still in 2008. Again, GOP needs to start working or prepare a candidate for 2016. 2012 is in the bag. It can’t be stolen either like 2008, remember the Florida votes. Bless the U.S. supreme court.
Really?
February 14th, 2012
8:08 pm
I am a Republican. I am employed in the tax dept if a large company. Every day I research the laws of every State that may have an effect on our company. I read numerous publications on tax law. I receive updates from each State on proposed legislations. I read two newspapers daily. I subscribe to several magazines. To say that Republicans get their information from Fox, or that they are ignorant is false.
Poll: Obama holds edge over GOP hopefuls – CBS News
February 14th, 2012
8:20 pm
[...] BeachCNN Poll Finds GOP Enthusiasm for SantorumWall Street Journal (blog)Northwest Cable News -Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) -KYTXall 7,557 news [...]
Bernie
February 14th, 2012
8:22 pm
Let them eat their eat own….As the French would say, ” Bon APPETIT”. This could not happen to a better group of American voters.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
February 14th, 2012
8:24 pm
Santorum raises his children instead of slaughtering them, respects family values, protects the innocent from the gropers and perverts, believes, as the founding fathers of this great nation did, that we are endowed with certain inalienable rights by our Creator, honors the tenets of Christianity, does not consider other human beings as mere pieces of meat solely animated for his sexual depravity, lends credence to the notion of personal responsibility, trusts that morality should guide one’s living instead of the whims of an overbearing, greedy and unethical government, he is decent, kind, forgiving, principled, trustworthy and not at all vile, but the liberals think he is, well, let them tell you, sickos that they are.
So what does this say about the liberals?
By the way, his campaign marks the very first time ever that dummycrats have come out against earmarking and government spending.
Hallelujah!
See, he’s had a positive effect already.
JF McNamara
February 14th, 2012
8:33 pm
On one hand, Obama isn’t smart and needs the teleprompter to make a coherent thought. On the other hand, he’s a super shrewd Chicago politician concocting extravagant strategies to elect the GOP nominee of his liking and slowly subverting America into a Muslim Socialist wasteland.
Paranoia and fear really seem to propel Republicans these days. Can we get back to some sense of Sanity?
Bernie
February 14th, 2012
8:34 pm
Strange how quiet Rick was when the nurmerous reports of priest were abusing all of the children of the Catholic Church. where was his outrage then? maybe it was tranferred to another location just like the priest.
MarkV
February 14th, 2012
8:34 pm
There are people who do not seem to understand the organization of the society, even after attending whatever university. We have created a system of institutions and professionals, who have been entrusted to recommend the proper courses of action, based on science. Nobody argues that whatever science discovers, must lead to a particular action. Those professional and institutions then make recommendations to our elected representatives about what should be in the law, and that is either made into the law or not.
We can argue here until our faces are blue whether a specific preventive care measure should be required or not in health care plans, but it would be just as useless as debating here whether drug X is good for us or not, what is the appropriate recommended daily dose of vitamin Y, or any other medical question. It is not a perfect system, mistakes can be made, but it is the best one we know.
Linda
February 14th, 2012
8:52 pm
Really@8:08, Isn’t it funny that liberals bash conservatives who watch Fox News, fair & balanced, the number one news program for the last 10 years, & only watch news programs that are unfair & unbalanced? Liberals desire that voters as well as students remain dumbed down.
Linda
February 14th, 2012
8:54 pm
I Report@8:24, Great post!
No Artificial Flavors
February 14th, 2012
8:56 pm
Not to worry, there is still plenty of time for social issues to again take a back seat and for Say Anything Santorum to fall by the wayside. $4.00 gas in Ga or $5.00 national average will ensure this.
Tom
February 14th, 2012
8:59 pm
I didn’t know that much about Santorum so I just googled the name and found out all I need to know.
Linda
February 14th, 2012
9:05 pm
Bernie@8:34, Priest(s) were abusing all of the children of the Catholic Church? I missed that!
Blake
February 14th, 2012
9:43 pm
Kyle,
I would love to think that President Obama and his political team are capable of the kind of political mastery over Republican voters you are suggesting. It would be like a really fanciful episode of “West Wing”. If any conservatives really believe this, it shows a level of faith in the president which exceeds that of any Democrat, with the possible exception of his wife and daughters. If he has this kind of power, what happens to the Republican argument that he is incompetent? If there were political motives involved in the contraception decision, it was about solidifying Obama’s position with women.
Republicans have only themselves to blame for the current field, and the idea that diabolical machinations from the evil liberals have any effect is hilarious (although I do feel encouraged by this belief in the mysterious powers of liberals to accomplish impossible goals through our powers of mind control and foreseeing the future). Once Santorum’s social issue agenda becomes better known among independents, his negatives with independents and women will go (way) up. Obama will win because this election will be decided in a narrow band of swing counties where any of the current Republican candidates are going to have a very tough time.
If southern conservatives ever stop talking among themselves about how Obama is destroying the country/economy/Western Civilization, and is the worst president ever/since Roosevelt/he’s not really the president, they may realize that their best hope is to focus on winning the Senate and minimizing losses in the House to maintain a narrow majority.
Gravy Train
February 14th, 2012
9:54 pm
The subject of this article, the thinking of secluded DB’s like Kyle and Linda here are the real reason the GOP is in serious trouble. It’s like watching a slow moving train wreck. They’ve obviously never heard of seperation between church and state, meaning, no one in this country has the right to force their religion on anyone else. If you oppose contraception, don’t use it. Jesus told early followers that following God is a choice. Choice is the operative term that puts the whole dynamic in motion. Without it, we are souless robots.
Liz
February 14th, 2012
9:58 pm
Obama will have to win by his own merits. Democrats don’t have to say a word about how extreme conservative GOP candidates are, their own words are prima facia evidence. These GOP candidates are all fatally flawed, it doesn’t matter which one wins. In the end, we’ll get the government we deserve.
Gravy Train
February 14th, 2012
10:03 pm
Young and independent voters are smarter than the GOP realizes. They put a Mormon who is also the flag boy to the “T” for the 1% economic policy (Mitt) or a flame out who clings to Cold War era philosophy (Newt) or the crazy old coot who regrettably to everyone dominates the Thanksgiving conversation (Ron) and now the man who intends to force Christianity on all Americans? (Rick)
I just don’t understand why the GOP isn’t pulling in huge poll numbers among the afore mentioned young and independent voters?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
February 14th, 2012
10:19 pm
Fake Cancer Drug Found in U.S.
Roche first learned there might be a counterfeit problem when an unnamed foreign health authority notified the company in December of inauthentic Avastin made overseas.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577223472661091252.html?mod=WSJ_GoogleNews&mod=igoogle_wsj_gadgv1
————————–
If you support drug reimportation, you deserve to be on the receiving end of fake, ineffective cancer drugs.
Die, parasites, die!
JDW
February 14th, 2012
10:22 pm
@Kyle…”Are Obama and the left baiting GOP into nominating Santorum?”
A more appropriate headline would be…
GOP continues to self inflict pain and misery. Santorum latest weapon of choice.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
February 14th, 2012
10:26 pm
Sounds to me like the libtards are jealous that Republicans get to choose a nominee, while they are stuck with Losermarxistdebtcreep.
Linda
February 14th, 2012
10:50 pm
Gravy@9:54, Perhaps you do not understand the separation of church & state. It’s the fed. govt. who is forcing a mandate on religious entities, not the other way around.
It’s not just Catholics. It’s ALL religions.
There are already women who have chosen to work for religious institutions who have accepted the BENEFITS that their employers have offered. It’s set. They have agreed to their contributions & the co-pays.
Now, the fed. govt. has mandated for the first time in history that employers MUST provide health care insurance, that it must be comprehensive (cover anything & everything, meaning very expensive), that religious institutions that oppose contraceptives & abortion on moral grounds MUST violate their principles, beliefs & teachings & provide them to their employees.
Dusty
February 14th, 2012
10:52 pm
Kyle has mentioned the obvious. Democrats have been using dirty propaganda every since Bush was legally elected.
It is nothing new that they will use the undercover, the half truth and the lies. They have mastered the technique.
Kyle is quite correct in being suspicious. Many lib bloggers confirm it here with misinformation of every sort.
As to Santorium, he is a fine fellow with only one strong conviction that brings attention. I wish him well but he will make it into this election. Maybe at a later date with a bit more maturily and experience.
The Dems gave us an “unfinished”one and now we have failure staring us in the face. A huge deficit, a prime example, is nothing to Democrats.and Obama in particular.
Keep us posted, Kyle. There are no straight forward politics these days. The Republicans are not entirely innocent either, but they don’t have eight long years of ugly experience that the Dems have.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
February 14th, 2012
11:04 pm
Obozo: If you like your plan, and I like your plan, and Sebelius likes your plan, you can keep your plan. Otherwise, you’ll do as I command and either purchase a government-approved plan or suffer the consequences.
Obozo: Fascist.
Obozo receptacles: Mentally deficient parasites.
Dusty
February 14th, 2012
11:19 pm
Kyle is rightly suspicious of Democrats because they have been using every crooked bit of popaganda they can twist and turn for over eight years. They have perfected the ugly world of politics. Their bloggers present it to us every day in various forms..
Republicans are not entirely innocent. But; they have not had as much experience in the “big bad ugly” as the Democrats who are undercover experts.
———————-
Santorum is but a nice blip on the political scene. Fine fellow but not ready for the big time yet.
————————–
A happy Valentine’s Day to one and all. Obama puts a big red ribbon on a great big deficit just for you. He hopes to send you an even bigger one next year!
Dusty
February 14th, 2012
11:19 pm
Kyle is rightly suspicious of Democrats because they have been using every crooked bit of popaganda they can twist and turn for over eight years. They have perfected the ugly world of politics. Their bloggers present it to us every day in various forms..
Republicans are not entirely innocent. But; they have not had as much experience in the “big bad ugly” as the Democrats who are undercover experts.
———————-
Santorum is but a nice blip on the political scene. Fine fellow but not ready for the big time yet.
————————–
A happy Valentine’s Day to one and all. Obama puts a big red ribbon on a great big deficit just for you. He hopes to send you an even bigger one next year!
LeoBCrutcher
February 15th, 2012
1:51 am
The “Penny Medical” is quite popular in California and New York. For example it offers the low income health plan. Also offers health insurance for individual with pre-exisiting conditions.
Liz
February 15th, 2012
2:22 am
Barry, please don’t forget to take your medicine.
John Ellison
February 15th, 2012
5:55 am
While Rome burns, we are going to have a choice between Obama, a Marxist and Santorum, a religious zealot.
Polly Sigh
February 15th, 2012
6:22 am
Listen to you whine, Kyle!
As if the only party allowed to play politics is the old home team. Goading the GOP to reveal themselves for what they truly are and believe is hardly dirty pool, Kyle.
The dialogue between Hannity and Morris sounds more like a couple of spoiled brats who know that they’re outmanned and outflanked and now resort to meaningless finger pointing. Politics is brinksmanship; you know it, you practice it, you deal with it.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
February 15th, 2012
6:22 am
Santorum Says He Is Against Same-Sex Marriage
Santorum’s position on same-sex marriage is on full display in an MTV interview which is set to air on Monday.
Santorum told MTV he believes marriage is “between a man and a woman” and that he is “not in favor of gay marriage.”
“I’ve stated my opposition to this. I think it’s unnecessary,” Santorum told MTV. “I believe marriage is between a man and a woman. I am not in favor of gay marriage.”
———————-
OK, so he’s intolerant of gays. I’m starting to see the liberals’ reason for hating him as they do.
Except….oopsies…that article was about Obozo, I just replaced his name with Santorum’s!
Obozo receptacles: They’ll swallow anything.
Joel Edge
February 15th, 2012
6:48 am
It wouldn’t put anything past the Dem Party. Of course, it could also be a serious mistake on their part. Maybe they thought people wouldn’t have a problem with more government coercion. That seems to be the Dem’s reason for existence these days.
Birmingham Jacket
February 15th, 2012
7:01 am
The Left is nothing but Haters with their hands out! They hate America, Freedom and God!
Polly Sigh
February 15th, 2012
7:03 am
Hey Barry: Here’s a nice quote from your boy Santorum:
“But when you start playing around with constitutions, just to prohibit somebody who cares about another person, it just seems to me that’s not what America’s about. Usually, our constitutions expand liberties, they don’t contract them.”
Sweating yet? Don’t torture yourself. That’s really a quote from Obama. From the same election-year (2008) interview you cite.
Santorum would strip us of those liberties if given the opportunity. As a full-fledged heterosexual, that’s all I need to know with respect to social issues.
Clay Willis
February 15th, 2012
7:20 am
You’ve found a conspiracy all right but you’ve not stated its goal — it is to insure Mitt Romney as the nominee for POTUS, not to make Santorum the nominee. The power brokers in DC (both parties), the MSM and the pundits who support them in the media think they have destroyed Newt Gingrich by elevating Santorum and they now have three weeks to lay the groundwork to destroy Santorum AFTER Super Tuesday when they think Santorum will pull enough conservative votes from Gingrich to run him out of the race. Santorum has his own baggage, has never run anything larger than his Senate office and does not have the intelligence or the courage to combat the MSM and Democrat onslaught in the fall. Neither does Romney BTW which is why they’re trying to insure Newt’s destruction. Limbaugh says it right — watch the media, they’ll tell you who our candidate SHOULD be — the one they fear most and that, of course, is Newt Gingrich. The Democrats know they can beat Romney in the fall or if he wins, they can live with a moderate like him for 4 years.
sheepdawg
February 15th, 2012
7:34 am
kyle, your article is typical GOP paranoia, and thus funny. sanitorium is a complete nut and trying to defend him as a candidate for president is also funny. his appeal to intelligent votes who rightfully seperate religious beliefs from government is nil
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
February 15th, 2012
7:34 am
“Usually, our constitutions expand liberties, they don’t contract them.”
———
Don’t forget to purchase your government-mandated health insurance.
Obozo: Fascist.
Polly Sigh: Hypocrite.
Skip
February 15th, 2012
7:51 am
Wonder what the Cons are going to be tricked into today?