Early projection: A Romney-Obama match-up goes to …
As I write, we’re still 30-plus hours from getting initial results from Florida’s primary. In the meantime, here is the first state-by-state analysis of electoral votes in November’s election, based on actual polling numbers, that I have seen. It anticipates a Romney-Obama match-up — no other Republicans are analyzed — in which the president is very, very narrowly re-elected: 272 electoral votes to 266.
(FYI: The source, a blogger named Scott Elliott, has been close enough in the last two presidential elections to be worth following this year. In 2004 and again in 2008, he ended up predicting 48 of 50 states correctly.)
A couple of points to note:
- The conventional wisdom is that a Democrat, and particularly Obama this year, begins the race with most of the necessary 270 EVs sewn up. According to this initial projection, Romney actually holds a 170-149 advantage in those states in which he or Obama leads the other by double-digits. Obama pulls ahead only slightly, 217-206, when the margin is as few as 5 percentage points.
- In this projection, Romney flips only five states won by Obama in 2008: Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. That would leave him still four states short of what George W. Bush won in 2004 — suggesting there’s still some upside for him.
- Flipping any of the states from Obama’s list of “weak” or “moderate” leads would hand the election to Romney.
- Romney is projected to lose the election despite narrowly winning the popular vote.
- The frailty of Romney’s numbers is underscored by the website’s projections for Senate races. With Democrats faced with defending 21 of the 33 seats (23 if you include seats held by Democrat-leaning independents), the GOP is pegged for a net pick-up of just three seats — into a virtual 50-50 tie (including one Democrat-leaning independent). The party with the presidency would, via the vice president, control the Senate.
- The GOP is projected to gain three seats in states that lean toward Romney, while failing to pick up five other seats in such states. If Republicans were to post a 3-5 record in those races, it could not possibly be considered a sign of strong coattails for their presidential nominee.
So, a few questions for y’all: Is the presidential race really going to be this close?
Even if Romney were to beat Obama, would a tie in the Senate put a damper on the election?
Do you expect Romney’s numbers to get better or worse if and when he becomes the presumptive nominee?
And, because the GOP nomination is still very much in doubt: Does this prediction make you feel better or worse about Romney’s electability?
– By Kyle Wingfield
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174 comments Add your comment
Linda
January 30th, 2012
10:55 pm
Mr. Trash@10:41, I’m neither “little” nor a “miss” nor “incoherent.” My postings only make sense to those that have sense.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
January 30th, 2012
11:01 pm
td, I am not a conservative. I’m a FISCAL conservative / social liberal.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 31st, 2012
7:38 am
Note which side of the aisle is constantly commenting on, and consumed by, issues of race. The other side of the aisle moved on long ago.
Move on, liberals. Americans have. You can too.
carlosgvv
January 31st, 2012
8:17 am
It probably will be Romney vs Obama. And, it will be the dirtest political contest in American history.
Chip
January 31st, 2012
8:25 am
As distateful and phony as I consider him to be, Romney has the best chance of defeating Little Lord Obozo and his lunatic band of Bolsheviks. (Although I’d dearly love to see Newt smear Obozo in a real and properly-moderated debate, Newt just isn’t leadership material.)
One factor I haven’t seen mentioned in this forum is the “novelty vote.” Millions of first-time voters, mostly from the slums, were recruited to vote for Obozo. Whie I understand — to a point — the significance of black people voting for the first black president, I have to wonder if enough of these people can be roused from their alcohol and crack-induced stupors to go to the polls again, especially when many of them are angry at Obozo because they feel he hasn’t delivered enough on his promises to take from others and give everything to them.
Also, I personally know many blacks with conservative values, in the military or who work real jobs, who have admitted to me severe cases of buyer’s remorse… once the excitement wore off, they realized they had helped elect a shallow, brittle phony who bitterly hates America and opposes their deep-seated values.
Another thought: millions of dumb over-educated college students, recent graduates, and younger liberals in general voted for Obozo because of the color of his skin, to “prove” they weren’t racist!… and for the shallow reward of saying “I voted for the first black president, so I’m cool! and not a racist!” With the novelty gone now, will they bother to turn out? Especially since so many of them are diappointed that Obama didn’t give each of them their own free unicorn?
Don’t discount the apathy of younger libs and slum dwellers. Although I would love to see the current America-hating trash posing in the Oval Office get tossed out on his rear end by a landslide, it will probably be close, so I’ll take any factor and advantage possible.
Be prepared, by the way. If the Republican nominee wins the election, we can expect rioting and cities in flames… (which the liberals who live in those cities will deserve, for supporting the likes of Obama, union thugs, Occutard protestors, ect…)
Do what??????
January 31st, 2012
9:28 am
“There are a lot of angry stupid white people that vote”
Trash just proved just how big of a racist he really is.
As for everyone else who’s had their run-ins with trash, just ignore the troll.
Do what??????
January 31st, 2012
9:29 am
“Although I would love to see the current America-hating trash posing in the Oval Office get tossed out on his rear end by a landslide, it will probably be close, so I’ll take any factor and advantage possible.”
Same here. The guy has been coddled by Illinois trash for years and it would be nice to see him go out like Jimmy Carter did.
UGA 1999
January 31st, 2012
9:41 am
Romney will win by double digits. All 50 delegates go to Mitt.
Do what??????
January 31st, 2012
10:25 am
Another blunder by Oblunder.
Obama Bungles Jobs Numbers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=no3DtOP2eQQ&fea
Do what??????
January 31st, 2012
10:25 am
UGA 1999
Where ya been?
St Simons - codewords are the new black
January 31st, 2012
10:33 am
Obama will win 50 states. Romney can have the other 7.
UGA 1999
January 31st, 2012
10:40 am
do what….Is anyone else having issues with the AJC website and scrolling?
Do what??????
January 31st, 2012
10:53 am
“Is anyone else having issues with the AJC website and scrolling?”
Not sure.
UGA 1999
January 31st, 2012
11:00 am
St. Simons….That is classic!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 31st, 2012
11:03 am
Home Prices Tumble
The 20-city composite dropped 3.7% and hard-hit Atlanta dropped 11.8%.
———–
Two and a half years after the recovery began, and this is the best Obozo can do?
Obozo: Failure.
getalife
January 31st, 2012
11:05 am
“Even Rasmussen now has Obama surging” Jay Bookman
Four more years.
UGA 1999
January 31st, 2012
11:10 am
getalife…..four more years of high unemployment, $4 gasoline and rising debt ceilings???? I think not.
Do what??????
January 31st, 2012
11:10 am
getalife
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn. Did you say something?
Do what??????
January 31st, 2012
11:10 am
UGA 1999
The Obama cult trolls have their hopes up real high right now. Reality won’t be kind to them in November.
Tall
January 31st, 2012
11:23 am
…”You can pad your tacid misgivings, fear, doubt, and fright about Romney all you want with phrases that seem to minimize them and make you feel better … but you know deep down there that Romney is not the true conservative candidate that would motivate the GOP base to vote for him in an Obama matchup….
The acolytes of Jay Bookman overlook a small fact…..all Republicans want Obama out of office. The President continues to alienate his voter base. Last week it was working class Catholics. Who will be next?
clyde
January 31st, 2012
12:07 pm
Four more Obama years will give us $6 a gallon gas prices and a totally collapsed economy.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 31st, 2012
12:12 pm
Obamaggots should remember this quote from Art Laffer: “Jobs and wealth are created by those who are taxed, not by those who do the taxing”.
Let’s hope Americans remove the biggest impediment to economic growth–their Moron Prince Obozo.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 31st, 2012
12:15 pm
Four more Obozo years = $6 trillion more in debt.
It’s simple math. Obozo is a disastrous liberal fascist.
Marge
February 6th, 2012
8:00 am
I don’t think Newt should be so confident about winning GA and AL.
Newt is the most pro-amnesty candidate of the four and most of us want the Illegal aleins out of here. Newt outright told Univision in Florida that he would give nearly ALL illegal aliens a green card and allow them to remain in the US. ?Say what? This is NOT a conservative position and will not play well when Super Tuesday approaches to remind the voters of the “real” Newt.