Early projection: A Romney-Obama match-up goes to …
As I write, we’re still 30-plus hours from getting initial results from Florida’s primary. In the meantime, here is the first state-by-state analysis of electoral votes in November’s election, based on actual polling numbers, that I have seen. It anticipates a Romney-Obama match-up — no other Republicans are analyzed — in which the president is very, very narrowly re-elected: 272 electoral votes to 266.
(FYI: The source, a blogger named Scott Elliott, has been close enough in the last two presidential elections to be worth following this year. In 2004 and again in 2008, he ended up predicting 48 of 50 states correctly.)
A couple of points to note:
- The conventional wisdom is that a Democrat, and particularly Obama this year, begins the race with most of the necessary 270 EVs sewn up. According to this initial projection, Romney actually holds a 170-149 advantage in those states in which he or Obama leads the other by double-digits. Obama pulls ahead only slightly, 217-206, when the margin is as few as 5 percentage points.
- In this projection, Romney flips only five states won by Obama in 2008: Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. That would leave him still four states short of what George W. Bush won in 2004 — suggesting there’s still some upside for him.
- Flipping any of the states from Obama’s list of “weak” or “moderate” leads would hand the election to Romney.
- Romney is projected to lose the election despite narrowly winning the popular vote.
- The frailty of Romney’s numbers is underscored by the website’s projections for Senate races. With Democrats faced with defending 21 of the 33 seats (23 if you include seats held by Democrat-leaning independents), the GOP is pegged for a net pick-up of just three seats — into a virtual 50-50 tie (including one Democrat-leaning independent). The party with the presidency would, via the vice president, control the Senate.
- The GOP is projected to gain three seats in states that lean toward Romney, while failing to pick up five other seats in such states. If Republicans were to post a 3-5 record in those races, it could not possibly be considered a sign of strong coattails for their presidential nominee.
So, a few questions for y’all: Is the presidential race really going to be this close?
Even if Romney were to beat Obama, would a tie in the Senate put a damper on the election?
Do you expect Romney’s numbers to get better or worse if and when he becomes the presumptive nominee?
And, because the GOP nomination is still very much in doubt: Does this prediction make you feel better or worse about Romney’s electability?
– By Kyle Wingfield
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174 comments Add your comment
redneckbluedog
January 30th, 2012
5:51 pm
Dusty
January 30th, 2012
5:43 pm
Who are the wealthy people giving their support to Republicans?
————————————-
You’re kidding..right..?
Koch, Trump, Adelson, Senegol, Hayes, Langone, Steele, Ross, Rehberg, Stack, every white NFL and MLB player, Wyly, Childs, Cortopassis, Craft, DeVos, Fullenwider, Gilliam, Griffin, Haworth, Hendricks, Humphries, Levy, Marshall, Pope, Robertson, Rasten, Cameron, Hamm, Hayden, James, Menard, Schwab, Singer, and Templeton….WHEW….
redneckbluedog
January 30th, 2012
5:52 pm
Do what??????
January 30th, 2012
5:51 pm
And Oprah has disappeared into thin air. POOF!
—————————————————————————
“THIN” air…!?!?!?
ld
January 30th, 2012
5:55 pm
Do What:
Don’t pretend to be clueless.
Since, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely’ and Congress seems to have that effect on everyone that get’s elected, it IS very likely that some “deal” has, at least temporarily silenced them–
Reality: YOU DID NOT HEAR them en mass as an organized group backing ANY nominee–though a couple tried to embrace the tea party.
They are in ‘wait and see’ which side of the bread my butter’s own, too–like many in the GOP ‘leadership’–to use the term loosly.
ld
January 30th, 2012
5:58 pm
Yes, thankfully; but only for now. She’ll likely reappear after the conventions but, hopefully, will not have the same “umph” w/o her show and its multitude of (gullible), needy followers.
ld
January 30th, 2012
5:59 pm
not so thin
Cassie
January 30th, 2012
6:00 pm
I had a dream Romney won. It was a nightmare.
ld
January 30th, 2012
6:01 pm
Yes; this again.
You cannot suger-coat the reality that many of those “values voters” believe women should be “submissive”–not the potential leader of the free world.
Dusty
January 30th, 2012
6:02 pm
Redneckbluedog
I don’t have a Democratic HIT list of rich people who support Republicans so I don’t know half of those you mentioned.
If you have a list of rich people who support Democrats I will be glad to compare the numbers. You can start with the Kennedys,the Gores, the Edwards, the Pelosis, the Kerrys. the Buffets and move to celebrities from there. OK?
ld
January 30th, 2012
6:02 pm
Cassie:
nomination or election?
ld
January 30th, 2012
6:03 pm
Edwards — as in one dead and one jailed?
ld
January 30th, 2012
6:05 pm
Ya gotta wonder if the ‘rich’ Hollywood ‘Dems’ actually VOTE liberal, contrary to their own economic self interest, when in the privace of the voting booth or if they’re just ‘acting’ in public to be deemed ‘politically correct’.
Dusty
January 30th, 2012
6:10 pm
ld 6:01
Submissive women? How old are you? The Stone Age has long departed. Lay down your club and look around.
Hillbilly D
January 30th, 2012
6:18 pm
Not only are grocery prices going up but the amount of product in each package–for which we are paying more–has been going down.
Ain’t the 30 ounce, “quart” of mayonaisse a grand invention?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 30th, 2012
6:32 pm
“I had a dream Romney won. It was a nightmare.”
————————-
When Obozo wins, Americans lose. I refer you to the last three years.
saywhat?
January 30th, 2012
6:54 pm
ld
January 30th, 2012
5:55 pm
“Do What:
Don’t pretend to be clueless.”
—————————————————————
Ummm, you know he’s not pretending, right?
_____________________________________
On topic, if by chance the predictions as stated are correct, and Obama wins the electoral vote but loses the popular vote, will he be considered to have a “mandate” as was claimed by/of George W Bush?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 30th, 2012
6:55 pm
The Obamaggots probably believe Dear Leader when he says the auto companies have paid back “every dime” of the bailout cash.
—————
Treasury ups auto bailout loss estimate
BY DAVID SHEPARDSON DETROIT NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU
Washington -The U.S. Treasury Department boosted its estimate of government losses in the $85 billion auto bailout by $170 million.
In the government’s latest report to Congress this month, the Treasury upped its estimate to $23.77 billion, up from $23.6 billion.
——————–
Thanks, Democrats.
JDW
January 30th, 2012
6:57 pm
Romney is almost at high water. He peaks at the convention and the begins a long slide to 210-220 EV’s. Economy is improving and Obama has yet to campaign. Dem’s hold 52 in senate and may take house. Tea Party slides into oblivion.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 30th, 2012
6:59 pm
Wake up, JDW, you’re dreaming.
Americans know what Obozo is and won’t make the mistake of 2008 again.
Or I’m wrong, and we really are doomed.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
January 30th, 2012
7:08 pm
JDW, it is almost inconceivable for the House to return to the Dems in 2012 given redistricting following the Census. Depending on the mood of the electorate, it might happen in 2014, but that large a swing with no major legislation / economic improvement simply isn’t possible. What you’re providing isn’t analysis, but wishful thinking.
It’s possible the Dems could hold 52 in the Senate, but highly unlikely given the states with Dems retiring. It would take incredibly bad candidates running, and the GOP has relatively good ones thus far in those states.
As to Obama having yet to campaign, when hasn’t he NOT been campaigning? Please. That’s ALL he’s done.
ld
January 30th, 2012
7:10 pm
Dusty:
The evangelicals believe women should be submissive to men–they are the votes for the MODERN GOP; in fact, the GOP majority would not likely have happend w/o them–not if everyone only voted in their own economic self interest–which only those very passionate about their one/few issue(s) do. As in “values” issues.
ld
January 30th, 2012
7:13 pm
The GOP made a concerted effort to “embrace”–smother–the Tea Party, especially the rightwingers like Bachman.
GodHatesTrash, Superstar
January 30th, 2012
7:19 pm
As 2000 and 2004 showed us, never misunderestimate the stupidity of the average Duhmerican. Heck, even in 2008, McCain/Palin got almost 46% of the popular vote, which show that ignorant stupidity is still a huge factor in the vote.
Let’s face it, many Duhmericans, like Kyle’s Kavalcade of Konservative Krazies and Kooks, are simply not ready for a black president.
And Romney is more kkkonservative than you stooges give him credit. Mormonism, of which Mitt is a devout follower has a long strong proud tradition of bigotry against the black and the brown. The conman Joseph Smith detested Native Americans, and blacks even more, and today his followers maintain his 19th century attitudes. Mitt’s campaign slogan – “Keep America American” he borrowed straight from the Klan, fits his Mormonism too.
Mitt’s funny Mormon underwear has many similarities to a Klan robe, you just wear it under your clothes instead….
So, stooges, don’t worry – Mitt is just as big a bigot as Newt.
Given the profound stupidity and gullibility of the Duhmerican electorate, I give Mitt a better than 60% chance of becoming president.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
January 30th, 2012
7:22 pm
ld, you’re moniker should be “lsd”, as in what you are on.
You’re just taking one candidate’s out-of-context remark and painting an entire swath of voters with an incorrect assumption.
Don’t quit your day job to take up political analysis, OK?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
January 30th, 2012
7:30 pm
GHT, at some point in your blogging lifetime you’re going to be correct on the issues.
Just not today.
Of course, Romney’s slogan isn’t what you posted. You’d know that if you did any research whatsoever. You’d also know that EVERY political party as well as most religions have a history of bigotry – if you go back far enough. Even if you take the simple actions of a couple of nut-jobs, painting another person with their beliefs just because they follow the same religion, when no such actions in their lifetime equate to bigotry, is disingenuous at best and libelous at worst. And as usual for you, poor analysis of a situation.
Why don’t you saunter over to Bookman’s blog. They specialize in juvenile comments such as yours.
td
January 30th, 2012
7:46 pm
I hate to tell you Dems but if gas goes above $4 per gallon (As is being currently predicted by this paper and others) by next October the Obama will lose in a land slide to whomever the Republicans nominate.
A Flip Floping Tax Cheat (Is this the Best Republicans Have To Offer?)
January 30th, 2012
7:54 pm
@Lil’ Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 30th, 2012
2:09 pm
Romney doesn’t tend to wear well
——-
Neither do $1.5 trillion deficits, 9% unemployment, or record numbers of folks on food stamps.
*********************************************************************************
A Flip Floping Tax Cheat (Is this the Best Republicans Have To Offer?)
Lil Barry are you in the 1%?
If not, you are in trouble…………Mitt is going to take care of his kind.
Road Scholar
January 30th, 2012
7:59 pm
Why don’t we wait until the Repubs have a candidate and then worry/boast how either candidate will win. There is a long time until the convention.
And,if the Repubs appear to be on a path to capture both the House and Senate, why would you thing the American people would vote for a Repub President? Do you remember what happen the last time that happened?
A Flip Floping Tax Cheat (Is this the Best Republicans Have To Offer?)
January 30th, 2012
7:59 pm
@GodHatesTrash, Superstar
January 30th, 2012
7:19 pm
Mitt is just as big a bigot as Newt.
Given the profound stupidity and gullibility of the Duhmerican electorate, I give Mitt a better than 60% chance of becoming president.
***************************************************
Given your profound stupidity and gullibility, I give you a better than 60% chance OF BEING WRONG.
ragnar danneskjold
January 30th, 2012
8:03 pm
Carter-Reagan was a toss up one week before the election. As people approached the election booth, they realized they could not endorse the lunacy of the previous three years. I respectfully believe a ham sandwich would defeat Obama, even among the Florida Jewish population. But not among the Muslims.
A Flip Floping Tax Cheat (Is this the Best Republicans Have To Offer?)
January 30th, 2012
8:09 pm
@td
January 30th, 2012
7:46 pm
I hate to tell you Dems but if gas goes above $4 per gallon (As is being currently predicted by this paper and others) by next October the Obama will lose in a land slide to whomever the Republicans nominate.
****************************************************************
Who appointed you blog Prognosticator?
You sound more like a carnival fortune teller with your pretense of prophecy.
jm
January 30th, 2012
8:19 pm
Romney will win by a small margin but not a big one. And it is of course possible Obama will win because it is so close.
Frankly, it’s dependent on how good a case Romney makes for his candidacy.
Romney will improve after he becomes the nominee, but the battle hardening is not bad for Romney at all. He will need to hit hard at Obama to win. The “training” against Newt is helpful in the short run, but not in the long run.
If the senate is a tie, so what? There are always a few fence sitters and nothing gets done without 60 votes.
jm
January 30th, 2012
8:22 pm
Romney needs to, and can, win CO. Possibly either MI or PA too. Then game over.
td
January 30th, 2012
9:00 pm
A Flip Floping Tax Cheat (Is this the Best Republicans Have To Offer?)
January 30th, 2012
8:09 pm
I guess you did not watch the ABC nightly news tonight? They predicted $4.50 per gallon by the end of the summer. Can you really tell us Obama will win re election if that happens. How?
Linda
January 30th, 2012
9:11 pm
I think that race baiters are 10 times worse than racists.
A Flip Floping Tax Cheat (Is this the Best Republicans Have To Offer?)
January 30th, 2012
9:31 pm
@td
January 30th, 2012
9:00 pm
A Flip Floping Tax Cheat (Is this the Best Republicans Have To Offer?)
January 30th, 2012
8:09 pm
I guess you did not watch the ABC nightly news tonight? They predicted $4.50 per gallon by the end of the summer. Can you really tell us Obama will win re election if that happens. How?
******************************************************************
In the words of Herman Cain, don’t blame Obama blame yourself.
Tthe election will not be won or lost because of $4.50 gas.
Give me a break.
Linda
January 30th, 2012
9:36 pm
Mr. Flip@9:31, So what do you you think the 2011 election will be won on?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
January 30th, 2012
9:59 pm
I’m still trying to figure out who the “Flip-floping tax cheat” is . . .
GodHatesTrash, Superstar
January 30th, 2012
10:05 pm
I think Romney has an excellent chance – Obama is a black man with a funny sounding name who once lived in a foreign country, and a lot of people don’t like that.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 30th, 2012
10:05 pm
We’re desperately in need of fresh sheets. The mentally incontinent libtards have soiled these.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 30th, 2012
10:07 pm
Obama is a black man with a funny sounding name who once lived in a foreign country
—————–
What was he in 2008? All that, but with no record of failure. Now he’s got that, and Americans will correct that mistake.
GodHatesTrash, Superstar
January 30th, 2012
10:10 pm
There are a lot of angry stupid white people that vote, and they have made the Kenyan Muslim half-black man Obama the scapegoat for their many failures and frustrations.
Of course Romney will do well!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
January 30th, 2012
10:13 pm
There are a lot of parasites who count on Obozo to make sure they don’t have to pay any federal income tax.
Of course Obozo will do well.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
January 30th, 2012
10:15 pm
Of course, GHT, because the failed policies of the current administration never come into play when deciding who to vote for, right?
Linda
January 30th, 2012
10:31 pm
Mr. Trash@10:05, Most of us were under the impression that Pres. Obama was half white. You also have a funny sounding name. Does that mean that we are preducied against half of Obama’s skin & your funny name? Where most of us who disagree with Obama’s policies see beyond his skin, you & yours can’t see beyond his skin color.
GodHatesTrash, Superstar
January 30th, 2012
10:38 pm
Oh good! The keen Konservative minds of Kyle’s Kavalcade of Konservative Kooks and Krazies are now going to try to convince us they are NOT racists.
Grab the popcorn – this’ll be funny.
GodHatesTrash, Superstar
January 30th, 2012
10:41 pm
Little Miss Linda, I read your incoherent ramblings @ 10:31. I would ask you if you’d been drinking, but your posts never make much sense…
Linda
January 30th, 2012
10:45 pm
Mr. Trash@10:10, There you go again, getting Kenyan & Keynesian mixed up. I beg to differ who is angry & stupid.
td
January 30th, 2012
10:49 pm
GodHatesTrash, Superstar
January 30th, 2012
10:38 pm
The term “racist” has been so politicized the past 10 or so years that it really means nothing more now then a Democrat calling a Republican a name.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
January 30th, 2012
10:50 pm
GHT, please provide proof that anybody that you consider “conservative” on this blog has posted anything whatsoever to show that they are “racists”.
Anything at all.
Really. Anything.
td
January 30th, 2012
10:55 pm
Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!
January 30th, 2012
10:50 pm
You are a conservative so by his/her definition that makes you a racist. Like I said the term means nothing any longer in America.