Early projection: A Romney-Obama match-up goes to …

As I write, we’re still 30-plus hours from getting initial results from Florida’s primary. In the meantime, here is the first state-by-state analysis of electoral votes in November’s election, based on actual polling numbers, that I have seen. It anticipates a Romney-Obama match-up — no other Republicans are analyzed — in which the president is very, very narrowly re-elected: 272 electoral votes to 266.

(FYI: The source, a blogger named Scott Elliott, has been close enough in the last two presidential elections to be worth following this year. In 2004 and again in 2008, he ended up predicting 48 of 50 states correctly.)

A couple of points to note:

  • The conventional wisdom is that a Democrat, and particularly Obama this year, begins the race with most of the necessary 270 EVs sewn up. According to this initial projection, Romney actually holds a 170-149 advantage in those states in which he or Obama leads the other by double-digits. Obama pulls ahead only slightly, 217-206, when the margin is as few as 5 percentage points.
  • In this projection, Romney flips only five states won by Obama in 2008: Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. That would leave him still four states short of what George W. Bush won in 2004 — suggesting there’s still some upside for him.
  • Flipping any of the states from Obama’s list of “weak” or “moderate” leads would hand the election to Romney.
  • Romney is projected to lose the election despite narrowly winning the popular vote.
  • The frailty of Romney’s numbers is underscored by the website’s projections for Senate races. With Democrats faced with defending 21 of the 33 seats (23 if you include seats held by Democrat-leaning independents), the GOP is pegged for a net pick-up of just three seats — into a virtual 50-50 tie (including one Democrat-leaning independent). The party with the presidency would, via the vice president, control the Senate.
  • The GOP is projected to gain three seats in states that lean toward Romney, while failing to pick up five other seats in such states. If Republicans were to post a 3-5 record in those races, it could not possibly be considered a sign of strong coattails for their presidential nominee.

So, a few questions for y’all: Is the presidential race really going to be this close?

Even if Romney were to beat Obama, would a tie in the Senate put a damper on the election?

Do you expect Romney’s numbers to get better or worse if and when he becomes the presumptive nominee?

And, because the GOP nomination is still very much in doubt: Does this prediction make you feel better or worse about Romney’s electability?

– By Kyle Wingfield

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174 comments Add your comment

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

January 30th, 2012
1:32 pm

A Romney-Obama match-up goes to …
———-

The American. And there’s more to being an American than having a birth certificate.

kfire66@gmail.com

January 30th, 2012
1:37 pm

The only losers in a Romney-Obama matchup (Robama)…are TRUE conservatives…This guy, Romney, is going to turn so far to the LEFT after the nomination so fast it would make Stalin blush..!!! Just look at his record in Massachusetts…Just look at Scott Brown..!!!

The real winners would be corporations..and I’m a little wary of them right now, too..I don’t NEED a corporation to be successful…and I dern sure don’t plan on bowing down and kissing anybody’s ring, whether it be David Koch’s or Uncle Sam’s…..

McDonnell won’t run with him and Christie is too unpopular…He’ll pick Rob Portman and lose Virginia…Portman is another liberal….and then there’s that whole Bush hangover….

Tancredo/Arpaio…2012…..

Jefferson

January 30th, 2012
1:39 pm

That ought to tell you something.

kfire66@gmail.com

January 30th, 2012
1:39 pm

That’s what I’ve been trying to tell people in my business…NOTHING IS GOING TO CHANGE…and that sounds good to me….KEEP THE FILIBUSTER..!!!!

reebok

January 30th, 2012
1:42 pm

I’m not sure it’s going to be that close…Romney doesn’t tend to wear well, and Newt’s attacks are creating a wealth of attack items the Dems will use on Romney in the GE. I think Obama probably wins comfortably. Everyone have a great Monday and a wonderful week!

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

January 30th, 2012
1:44 pm

Finally! A real projection of how this election might go (and one that mirrors nicely what I have been posting for a year). National polls don’t mean a thing – state-by-state polls and electoral college votes do.

I will say that NH and PA are closer to Romney than many think, and even something as small as NH alone shifts the election to Romney if the rest of the states remain as projected.

All that being said, the Senate being potentially tied is no big deal. Given their arcane rules of operation, the only thing that would change might be committee chairmanships, but there would still be little a GOP majority could do with the filibuster rules in place (although they could finally pass a budget with a simple majority).

ByteMe

January 30th, 2012
1:45 pm

If you dig into some of the specific states — like swing state North Carolina — you’ll notice that he’s not making a prediction based on actual polling results in a head-to-head between Obama and Romney, but he’s extrapolating from Obama’s national polling results.

Short version: Too early to tell.

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

January 30th, 2012
1:47 pm

How much attention should we pay to a poster who doesn’t know the difference between their “Name” and their “E-mail address” . . .

Just sayin’ ! ;)

redneckbluedog

January 30th, 2012
1:48 pm

Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!

January 30th, 2012
1:47 pm
How much attention should we pay to a poster who doesn’t know the difference between their “Name” and their “E-mail address” . . .

Just sayin’ !
—————————————————
OOPS…that’s just in case you want make a paypal donation to my write-in campaign..:-)…

hsn

January 30th, 2012
2:06 pm

Kyle,

You can pad your tacid misgivings, fear, doubt, and fright about Romney all you want with phrases that seem to minimize them and make you feel better … but you know deep down there that Romney is not the true conservative candidate that would motivate the GOP base to vote for him in an Obama matchup.

He is fidgity and very suspect… Another elephant in the room is his mormon background. Let’s cut through the PC bs. Other states may vote for him, but CONSERVATIVE southern Christians (without whom no GOP candidate wins the presidency) will be hard-pressed to vote for this fraud.

For all their faults, Santorum, Newt, or Paul would be much better matchups. Romney is easily rattled, unlike Newt or Santorum!

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

January 30th, 2012
2:09 pm

Romney doesn’t tend to wear well
——-

Neither do $1.5 trillion deficits, 9% unemployment, or record numbers of folks on food stamps.

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

January 30th, 2012
2:16 pm

hsn, a MONKEY could be nominated and conservatives would still go out and vote for Romney in 2012. Remember that the first priority of about 65% of GOP voters in the primary is to replace the current Disaster-in-Chief. The South is too entrenched with GOP voters to have the Mormon issue be a big thing when comparing Romney vs. Obama, thus, and drop-off in voters for that reason still gives the GOP nominee a solid cushion to work with in this region.

Remember, this isn’t 2008 and McCain. This is 2012 and the voters know what they’ve got in the current President (who sure can’t run on Hope & Change this year), and for the most part they don’t like what they see. GOP voters also see what sitting on their hands did in 2008, and they aren’t going to repeat that mistake.

hsn

January 30th, 2012
2:16 pm

Correction: Meant to type “tacit,” not “tacid”…

BW

January 30th, 2012
2:18 pm

Kyle

Still way too early to tell…I can tell you if Gingrich wins, the Senate remains in Dem hands along with the presidency and there’s an outside shot at the House in spite of the gerrymandering that is currently going on around the 10 year reapportionment. Romney is the only one who is going to get the crossover independent vote. That being said, does Romney have to veer so far to the right to win the nomination that he makes himself unpalatable to those independent votes he needs? Does Romney veer back to the center so far that the GOP base sits on its hands come Election Day? Only time will tell. I do know that the presumptive nominees on the GOP side are virtually writing the campaign ads that Obama and team will use in November. Unfortunately the campaign in the general will be so negative that we end up not actually addressing any real issues in an effort to produce a referendum. The Republicans still have an opportunity to re-enforce the narrative by botching the upcoming payroll-tax cut discussion and legislation.

ByteMe

January 30th, 2012
2:19 pm

Other states may vote for him, but CONSERVATIVE southern Christians (without whom no GOP candidate wins the presidency) will be hard-pressed to vote for this fraud.

The reality is this: if you win the state, you get the electoral votes. Those same “CONSERVATIVE southern Christians” won’t vote for the half-black guy more than they will not vote for the Mormon. In other words, Romney will hold those states and get those electoral votes.

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
2:23 pm

“Do you expect Romney’s numbers to get better or worse if and when he becomes the presumptive nominee?”

If he runs on conservative values then yes, it’ll get better. He better hammer Obama on his horrible record as president.

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
2:24 pm

“Those same “CONSERVATIVE southern Christians” won’t vote for the half-black guy more than they will not vote for the Mormon.”

Oh they’ll vote for the Mormon, race baiter.

Me

January 30th, 2012
2:24 pm

What happens when Paul jumps in as an independent?

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

January 30th, 2012
2:27 pm

Virtually nothing done in Congress will help determine who is elected President next year. No major legislation is being taken up to affect a national election. Still waiting to see how gas prices go as well as unemployment. Those are two big pocketbook issues to voters (and not esoteric GDP or stock market figures).

Gas prices WILL go up, especially during the summer months. If they stay high due to production issues during the fall, Obama will lose. Unemployment won’t go up or down by more than 1/10th of a percentage point or so, and will remain high enough to make it uncomfortable for him as well.

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
2:29 pm

“What happens when Paul jumps in as an independent?”

I’ve often thought about that but I doubt he will. He’s not Ralph Nadar or Ross Perot.

I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

January 30th, 2012
2:29 pm

I think it might have to do a lot with the 50% of Republicans who absolutely cannot stand Romney and, if forced to chose among liberals, would rather have the real deal than some plastic two faced RINO squishy forever ruining whatever is left of Conservatism.

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

January 30th, 2012
2:30 pm

Ron Paul will NOT run as an independent, Me.

Mitt (or another GOP nominee) will take care of him through the nominating process and keep him happy, plus Ron won’t jeopardize Rand’s prospects of making a name for himself in GOP circles for 2016 or 2020. If Ron Paul goes independent, he knows Rand will be toast in GOP circles for years to come, and Ron is smart enough to keep that from happening.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

January 30th, 2012
2:31 pm

Polls taken on election day 2004 didn’t get it right.

Americans will fix the mistake they made in 2008 now that they know what Obozo is.

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
2:35 pm

“Polls taken on election day 2004 didn’t get it right.”

The exit polls you mean.

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
2:36 pm

“Americans will fix the mistake they made in 2008 now that they know what Obozo is.”

Not sure Romney is the answer to that problem. Romney’s biggest obstacle is Romneycare. Hopefully the SC will overturn it.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

January 30th, 2012
2:36 pm

What happens when Paul jumps in?

Everyone keeps ignoring him.

Please, more challenging questions.

Ernest T. Bass

January 30th, 2012
3:01 pm

Obama wins in a cake walk. Not even close.

No one wants to go back to the policies of Bush that got us in this trouble in the first place.

When Obama took over, the Economy was in a free fall and people were talking depression.

It has taken four years but we are finally back on solid ground and the economy is showing sign of improvement.

Darwin

January 30th, 2012
3:01 pm

Here’s a challenging question – where were all you die hard “conservatives” when Bush and the Repubs were running things? Spending money on big government programs like Medicare. Fighting wars and spending money we didn’t have. Interesting how quiet you were back then.

williebkind

January 30th, 2012
3:04 pm

Only Kyle would help Obama the liberal. Other conservatives would not print this bullsh&t! Hey you can always turn to the liberals for comfort.

hsn

January 30th, 2012
3:06 pm

Darwin said, “Here’s a challenging question – where were all you die hard “conservatives” when Bush and the Repubs were running things? Spending money on big government programs like Medicare. Fighting wars and spending money we didn’t have. Interesting how quiet you were back then.”

========================================================================

Good question …

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

January 30th, 2012
3:09 pm

Darwin, that question has been asked and answered many times. Just because you can’t address the issue at hand doesn’t mean you get to distract from it by posting the same lame question again.

Ernest T., please name one “Bush policy” that has been changed / overturned since Obama became President that has helped the economy. Answer: None. The same policies are in place, and have been exacerbated by this current Disaster-in-Chief. That “the economy” has improved is certainly up for debate, and the long-term debt piled on to create short-term employment gains that will likely start to dissipate this year is simply more of the same that GOP and Democrat Congresses did for years.

Hillbilly D

January 30th, 2012
3:20 pm

This is one time Tiberius and I agree. Gas prices may determine this election. It’s a variation of the “it’s the economy stupid” line of thinking. If gas prices stabilize or go down, Obama’s chances get better, if they go up, especially by a lot, say $4-5 a gallon, then his re-election bid is in real trouble.

Short answer: it’s too early to be pronosticating, just yet.

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
3:21 pm

“No one wants to go back to the policies of Bush that got us in this trouble in the first place.”

Yeah, who wants low unemployment?

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
3:22 pm

“It has taken four years but we are finally back on solid ground and the economy is showing sign of improvement.”

What planet do you live on?

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
3:22 pm

” where were all you die hard “conservatives” when Bush and the Repubs were running things? ”

Working.

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
3:24 pm

“When Obama took over, the Economy was in a free fall and people were talking depression.”

Fast forward 3 years later and we’re in the same boat only unemployment is much higher.

clyde

January 30th, 2012
3:27 pm

Your scenario is good enough for me at the moment Kyle.If someone should go third party it won’t be that close.

Dusty

January 30th, 2012
3:43 pm

Do what?????

You are giving the right answers.

The Democrats here seem to think Bush just walked out the door.

Would someone call Jeb Bush and tell him to get himself in the business. I surely would feel better if a “brought up” in America, conservative, ivy league, pro-military Bush was heading for the White House. That good, honest, all-American feeling is gone but not forgotten. Let us get busy for its return.
(NO, it is NOT racist. Condoleeza Rice had all those virtues and she was in the Bush cabinet. She was superior! It is the heart that matters, not the skin.)

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

January 30th, 2012
3:45 pm

“Interesting how quiet you were back then”
——–

Your premise is false. Conservatives were not quiet about the expansion of government and new entitlements (Medicare part D).

You lie.

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
3:51 pm

“Conservatives were not quiet about the expansion of government and new entitlements (Medicare part D).”

Left wingers seem to forget, conveniently, that conservatives sat out in 2006 allowing the Pelosi democrats to take over and ruin our country. They also forget that a LOT of conservatives sat out in 2008.

Do what??????

January 30th, 2012
3:52 pm

“Obama wins in a cake walk. Not even close.”

If you believe that then I have some swamp land to sell you in Siberia.

Dusty

January 30th, 2012
3:58 pm

Hillbilly,

Another factor that is going up rapidly is groceries. Since women do much of the shopping, I expect them to notice food prices even more than gasoline costs.

Contrary to store ads, very few items have not risen in price. Some of it is pennies (so we won’t notice) and some are making big jumps. Some of that jump probably is due to prices of gasoline for shipping. So it goes.

NO, I don’t have a garden. Weeds seem to be the only thing that thrives under my care.

Hillbilly D

January 30th, 2012
3:58 pm

I have some swamp land to sell you in Siberia

You own The Vasyugan Swamp?

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

January 30th, 2012
4:03 pm

“You own The Vasyugan Swamp?”

Hey, wait! I just bought that last month! ;)

Hillbilly D

January 30th, 2012
4:05 pm

Congrats Tiberius. You own the largest swamp in the Northern Hemisphere. :lol:

barking frog

January 30th, 2012
4:05 pm

Scott can save us a lot of election costs and the candidates a lot
of campaign funds but that might end the existence of some media
outlets that depend on elections for a lot of revenues.

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

January 30th, 2012
4:07 pm

I think one other factor goes into this next election, and that is organization. Romney has it, the rest of the GOP field doesn’t.

Romney starts off with an equal playing field against the incumbent in just about every state as far as organization goes.

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

January 30th, 2012
4:10 pm

If you gotta own a lot of something, Hillbilly D, it might as well be swampland . . . :lol:

Del

January 30th, 2012
4:11 pm

So, a few questions for y’all: Is the presidential race really going to be this close?

It will in all probability be close and because it will predictions such as the one provided sound more like a “WAG” than a well reasoned projection.

Even if Romney were to beat Obama, would a tie in the Senate put a damper on the election?

No

Do you expect Romney’s numbers to get better or worse if and when he becomes the presumptive nominee?

I would look for them to improve considerably.

And, because the GOP nomination is still very much in doubt: Does this prediction make you feel better or worse about Romney’s electability?

No impact. The polls I’ve seen show Romney in a dead heat with Obama. The other candidates don’t match up that closely. Should Romney win Florida as it’s looking as though he will I think he’ll go on to win the nomination as the others including Gingrich begin falling out.

Dusty

January 30th, 2012
4:13 pm

I thought Vasyugan Swamp was in DC. It’s new name will be Nowurgone Sweep.