In New Hampshire, a very solid win for Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney didn’t quite hit the number I suggested for him in New Hampshire (40 percent), but I’m changing my mind about how significant his win was. The exit polls portray his performance as solid-to-dominant in many of the categories that will matter going forward in this GOP primary.
Romney out-polled Ron Paul among tea partyers and those who consider themselves “very conservative” when it comes to taxes and spending. He beat Rick Santorum among evangelicals, Catholics and those who consider themselves “very conservative” regarding gay marriage and abortion. He beat his nearest competitor (Paul) by a 2-to-1 margin among those who said the economy was their most important factor in deciding who got their vote and by 1 percentage point among those who named the federal budget deficit — by far the two most-named issues. (Santorum got a healthy plurality among those who named abortion, but they made up just 6 percent of the electorate.)
He didn’t fare well among voters who were most interested in moral character or ideological purity, but he lapped the field (62 percent!) among those who said job No. 1 is beating President Obama. He also won a majority among those who most valued “leadership/personal qualities.” He was the only candidate with whom a majority of New Hampshire voters said they’d be satisfied as the nominee, and the candidate they deemed most likely to beat Obama. He won a plurality of those who didn’t pick a candidate until Tuesday.
Paul did well overall, and it does not appear a stretch at this point to predict a second-place finish for him in the entire primary process. He will have the opportunity to help orient the party’s platform in a more libertarian direction, which for him probably represents a kind of Mission Accomplished.
I consider Jon Huntsman’s results insurmountably bad. Here is a candidate who identified New Hampshire early on as his best shot, but who won just one in six voters there. If he can’t do better than a clear third place — almost exactly in between second and fourth places — there, where exactly is he going to do better? His best showings were among those who usually vote Democratic and those who pronounce themselves “satisfied” with Obama’s job performance. In short, he is not GOP nominee material in 2012.
Santorum and Newt Gingrich were back-and-forth most of the evening for fourth place, but both were so far out of third that it hardly matters their final ranking relative to one another. Neither was fatally wounded, but I doubt either can survive much longer without a win, or near-win, in South Carolina on Jan. 21. Ditto Rick Perry, who essentially skipped New Hampshire.
One or all three of them, however, might be able to wound Romney in South Carolina. If so, this thing could drag out until Super Tuesday. If not, and if Romney wins the Palmetto State, it will be difficult to see how anyone seizes enough momentum, support and funds to overtake him.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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111 comments Add your comment
wallbanger
January 11th, 2012
11:34 am
I am convinced. The Romney signs are going up in my yard today. The speech he gave last night was a real winner. BTW: redneckbluedog: What do you mean first “non-christian president”? We already have that guy in Office right now.
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
11:35 am
redneck….typical democrat…..throwing religion and race into the mix. Great job, keep up the good work.
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
11:37 am
td
January 11th, 2012
11:31 am
—————————
Need to do a little fact checkin’ this mornin’, do we…:-)….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religious_affiliations_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
11:37 am
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
11:35 am
—————————
You DID see my earlier reference to Karl “the Wedge” Rove, didn’t you…?
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
11:38 am
Also redneckbluedog…..Mormonism is a form of Christianity.
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
11:39 am
Like I say…just vote Romney on Tuesday, and then go ask forgiveness on Sunday…Hope it helps…But get your bicycles lubed up and your white shirts and neckties pressed…:-)….
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
11:41 am
Redneckbluedog……I did and? Why did you want to throw in an ignorant comment about religion.
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
11:42 am
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
11:38 am
—————————–
Once again…a little fact checkin’ do we..!?!?
http://www.sbc.net
You MAY argue whether LDS is a cult or not….I’m not going to judge on that one…
But NOBODY will call LDS Christians….even Mormons…
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
11:43 am
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
11:41 am
—————————–
Because I can…..:-)….I may be heathen…but I’m not ignorant, and I’m still Christian….
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
11:45 am
I just thought it would be the DEMOCRATS that would introduce this little gambit into the political arena….
td
January 11th, 2012
11:46 am
Just Sayin
January 11th, 2012
11:34 am
You are correct and I made a mistake. I should have added another category for the “intelligent” supporters of Obama. They are socialist and believe that the government is the answer and can solve all our problems. They like the idea of taking from the producers in society to give to the people that have spent their lives making poor decisions and not taking responsibility for their actions.
Satisfied now?
td
January 11th, 2012
11:49 am
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
11:37 am
Look up Liberation theology on the internet and tell me that resembles anything that remotely looks like Christianity.
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
11:49 am
redneck….you are a heathen…..you need to read what LDS believes about Christ.
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
11:50 am
redneck…your ignorant comments are the EXACT reasons people hate religion! Keep up the good work.
DavidEm
January 11th, 2012
11:57 am
Ayn Rant @ 7:34
As an eighth generation South Carolinian, I can say you’ve got it right when you say, “Republican voters are even goofier than the candidates” there. We’re talking about a state that re-elected STROM THURMOND, “segregation forevah!” candidate extraordinaire, over and over until he finally croaked at the age of 209.
Look for Rick Perry to do unusually well there. After all, he has just promised (I’m not kidding) to send troops back into Iraq, and in South Carolina, they worship all things military.
Gingrich might have an upswing, too. They love his sarcasm-dipped moral superiority and what, to the uninitiated, seems like intelligence, though his new Catholicism might severely dampen their unconditional adulation.
Just Sayin
January 11th, 2012
11:58 am
td,
So what you are saying is that if someone votes for Obama they are:
Ignorant
Misguided
Uninformed
Socialist
Government Freeloaders lacking in personal responsibility.
You are certainly entitled to that opinion but it makes it impossible to take anything you say seriously as you appear to lack any sense of intellectual honesty. The kind of honesty that allows that people might disagree with you AND have a valid reason.
Now for my opinion. (Not fact, not truth, my opinion)
Your kind of dogmatic thinking is what will ensure the re-election of Obama. Elections are won in the middle and if you believe you are going to sway anyone to adopt your positions with the argument, “If you don’t then you are an ignorant, misguided, uninformed, Socialist freeloader lacking in personal responsibility” then you really have lost your grip.
In short, your rhetoric, while it may feel good when you say it, is actually going to hurt you in the end.
Linda
January 11th, 2012
11:58 am
Given the fact that there were 30 candidates on the ballot yesterday in New Hampshire, Romney’s close to 40% was a landslide. Wonder what percentage Obama would get today if he had to compete with 29 other Democratic candidates, including Hillary.
@@
January 11th, 2012
11:59 am
Why keep a failing company around to suffer more loses before it eventually goes bankrupt anyway.
Exactly, Rafe! Let ‘em fail…then they have no one to blame but themselves.
I’m not a fan of bailouts. Having said that, risks are only acceptable when my money isn’t involved.
My comment was from a standpoint of political strategy.
When all is said and done, no one can deny that Newt, as speaker, brought about change, albeit temporary. I’d rather have a narcissist with NEW ideas than a narcissist who promotes the tried and failed ideas of old.
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
12:03 pm
Just Sayin…..YES
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
12:04 pm
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
11:49 am
redneck….you are a heathen…..you need to read what LDS believes about Christ.
————————————————–
I am VERY WELL VERSED in the tenants of the LDS…..and religion is what it is…..I didn’t invent religion, and it will be around long after my demise…..
Now, Republicans can take pride in calling themselves the “big tent party”….It’s going to open up a lot of doors for a lot of non-Christian candidates of ALL KINDS down the road…
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
12:07 pm
td
January 11th, 2012
11:49 am
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
11:37 am
Look up Liberation theology on the internet and tell me that resembles anything that remotely looks like Christianity.
——————————-
Barack Obama is an unaffiliated Christian….Gary Johnson is a Lutheran….Mitt Romney is a proud Mormon…good for him….
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
12:08 pm
Just Sayin
January 11th, 2012
11:58 am
td,
So what you are saying is that if someone votes for Obama they are:
Ignorant
Misguided
Uninformed
Socialist
————————–
Do you realize that you just spelled I-M-U-S……How weird is that..:-)…!?!?
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
12:09 pm
Redneck….”non-christian candidates”? You mean like Obama?
Just Sayin
January 11th, 2012
12:09 pm
UGA 1999,
Then by all means keep on twisting the knife in your own back.
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
12:10 pm
redneck…..I am going to make an assumption. Are you young? Like early 20’s?
Obozonomics
January 11th, 2012
12:10 pm
I wonder, since the white man is now a minority where is our NAAWP?
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
12:10 pm
Just Sayin….my back is fine. Thanks for the concern.
Somali Republican
January 11th, 2012
12:10 pm
I will be the first one through the door of the new big tent.
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
12:11 pm
Obozonomics…..Only the weak require mobster like tactics to get education and jobs. We don’t need it.
Rafe Hollister
January 11th, 2012
12:14 pm
Just Sayin
Just the way the dumb masses are given their taking points, I’m afraid.
There is the point. Most people are too uninformed and uninterested to listen to long political discussions so the only way to reach them is through humor, oversimplification, rudeness, and outrageous language. John Stewart does it every evening, speaks to the illinformed and uncaring. Sad, but these people vote and we have to reach them somehow.
As Linda posted somewhere lately, Dems seem to fall in three groups, the takers, the uninformed, or the elite, who are driving an agenda. Trying to reach the uniformed, who are to uncaring to seek the facts for themselves.
Somali Republican
January 11th, 2012
12:19 pm
Kinda like this UGA?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stand_in_the_Schoolhouse_Door
Linda
January 11th, 2012
12:22 pm
Rafe@12:14, What I said was that Democrats fall into 3 categories:
1. the gimmes, the “kept” & union members,
2. the uninformed, the misinformed & the just-plain-stupid, &
3. the elites.
There are 2 groups: the herd & the herders.
Those in category #1 & #3 are the only ones who actually benefit.
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
12:23 pm
Somali….There was a time and place.
td
January 11th, 2012
12:23 pm
Just Sayin
January 11th, 2012
11:58 am
I said they are either one of them. You can not believe how many people I have talked to that said they voted for Obama in 2008 and said they were misinformed about or ignorant to the fact that he was a true believing socialist.
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
12:24 pm
td….agreed, I have heard the same. I believe this is why he is going to have a very hard time getting re-elected.
Rafe Hollister
January 11th, 2012
12:28 pm
Linda
It was an excellent point, that the Dems will have trouble denying.
td
I too have a friend who felt so strongly about needing a “change” from Bush that he voted for Oblamer. Asked about how he could support an avowed socialist, he said, well he is not going to be able to get any of that stuff accomplished anyway, and we need to get rid of the Bush policies.
td
January 11th, 2012
12:29 pm
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
12:07 pm
td
January 11th, 2012
11:49 am
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
11:37 am
Look up Liberation theology on the internet and tell me that resembles anything that remotely looks like Christianity.
——————————-
Barack Obama is an unaffiliated Christian
You expect me to believe that the man sat in a church that taught liberation theology every week for 20 years is a not a believer in the theology? I am now sure who you will be casting your vote for next Nov so stop pretending to be a Libertarian.
Now go look up the quotes that Obama has said or written about socialism and come back and tell me he is not a believer in it either.
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
12:31 pm
td…Obama sat in a church of hate for 20 years. That explains alot!
Just Sayin
January 11th, 2012
12:33 pm
It’s clear by the circular conversations you guys keep having that you can’t see that your own words are hurting your cause.
So keep on with the line of thinking that everyone on the other side of the argument from you is just too ignorant, unintelligent, misguided and just plain too stupid to see how right you really are.
Time will decide how effective that strategy will be. As for me, I’m off to a place where people use their heads when talking, not just their posteriors.
td
January 11th, 2012
12:34 pm
Just Sayin
January 11th, 2012
11:58 am
td,
“Your kind of dogmatic thinking is what will ensure the re-election of Obama. Elections are won in the middle”
Please inform us who the “middle” is? Can you give us a definable description?
Linda
January 11th, 2012
12:47 pm
Democrats that fall into category #2 go a step farther. They want conservatives to share their trap. They complain that conservatives watch FOX News, fair & balanced. They are unaware that all hosts on FOX are unbiased except for Hannity who leans right, Geraldo who leans left & Stossell who is Libertarian.
They prefer MSNBC, an entire station which is unabashedly liberal & biased. They are unaware that the alphabet media is prejudicial & organized by Media Matters/George Soros.
Mary Margaret Thomlinson-Hanson
January 11th, 2012
1:29 pm
Linda, how would you know that so many liberals prefer MSNBC? Have you heard of a hasty generalization?
And Fox News, yeah, you gotta love O’Reilly’s “Pinhead” segment every night. Nope, that is nothing like Jon Stewart.
Let me continue getting Linda together. Three types of Republicans:
1. the corporatists
2. the uninformed, the misinformed & the just-plain-stupid, religious nuts, and fundies
3. the elites.
There are 2 groups: the herd & the herders.
Those in category #1 & #3 are the only ones who actually benefit
Rafe Hollister
January 11th, 2012
1:41 pm
td
Last night you mentioned True Grit, and I could not get my comments to go thru, but I wanted to mention the Outlaw Josey Wales as a movie indirectly about William Quantrell, Q’d raiders, and the Jayhawkers. Anyhow Quantrell was a sadistic killer of women and children. Learned a lot by Googling him at Hillbillys suggestion.
redneckbluedog
January 11th, 2012
2:05 pm
td
January 11th, 2012
12:29 pm
You expect me to believe that the man sat in a church that taught liberation theology every week for 20 years is a not a believer in the theology? I am now sure who you will be casting your vote for next Nov so stop pretending to be a Libertarian.
————————————————————–
Just because I’m not supporting yours and Karl Rove’s and Fox News’ poly-theistic Massachussetts liberal who hasn’t worked in 6 years does NOT make me a liberal…I have a VERY centrist voting record, and in 2012, it will include my first Libertarian vote…..
Small government sounds good to me right now…but truly small government….Out of my wife’s uterus, flat and simple taxes, and a return to simplified monetary policy…Not so much abolishing the Federal Reserve, but constraining it….Taking care of business here at home, as opposed to policing the world..!!! You do your thing, and I’ll do mine….Turning off Fox News as well as MSNBC……Ending entiltlements for both billionares and welfare queens….Corporations are NOT people, my friend….but SMALL BUSINESSES ARE…!!!!
Mary Margaret Thomlinson-Hanson
January 11th, 2012
2:12 pm
Right on, redneckbluedog!
td
January 11th, 2012
2:30 pm
Rafe Hollister
January 11th, 2012
1:41 pm
Forgot about the reference in the “outlaw”. Good catch.
Linda
January 11th, 2012
2:31 pm
MMT-H@1:29, Why do I know so many liberals prefer MSNBC? They say so. Who prefers MSNBC other than liberals? No one.
UGA 1999
January 11th, 2012
2:41 pm
I didnt know anyone preferred MSNBC.
Mary Margaret Thomlinson-Hanson
January 11th, 2012
2:48 pm
Me, either, UGA1999, and neither does Linda. In other words, she is full of it.
Rafe Hollister
January 11th, 2012
2:50 pm
MSNBC just suspended Pat Buchanan for spouting opinions not liked by Liberals. I thought Libs liked diversity and tolerance. Guess not.