In New Hampshire, a very solid win for Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney didn’t quite hit the number I suggested for him in New Hampshire (40 percent), but I’m changing my mind about how significant his win was. The exit polls portray his performance as solid-to-dominant in many of the categories that will matter going forward in this GOP primary.

Romney out-polled Ron Paul among tea partyers and those who consider themselves “very conservative” when it comes to taxes and spending. He beat Rick Santorum among evangelicals, Catholics and those who consider themselves “very conservative” regarding gay marriage and abortion. He beat his nearest competitor (Paul) by a 2-to-1 margin among those who said the economy was their most important factor in deciding who got their vote and by 1 percentage point among those who named the federal budget deficit — by far the two most-named issues. (Santorum got a healthy plurality among those who named abortion, but they made up just 6 percent of the electorate.)

He didn’t fare well among voters who were most interested in moral character or ideological purity, but he lapped the field (62 percent!) among those who said job No. 1 is beating President Obama. He also won a majority among those who most valued “leadership/personal qualities.” He was the only candidate with whom a majority of New Hampshire voters said they’d be satisfied as the nominee, and the candidate they deemed most likely to beat Obama. He won a plurality of those who didn’t pick a candidate until Tuesday.

Paul did well overall, and it does not appear a stretch at this point to predict a second-place finish for him in the entire primary process. He will have the opportunity to help orient the party’s platform in a more libertarian direction, which for him probably represents a kind of Mission Accomplished.

I consider Jon Huntsman’s results insurmountably bad. Here is a candidate who identified New Hampshire early on as his best shot, but who won just one in six voters there. If he can’t do better than a clear third place — almost exactly in between second and fourth places — there, where exactly is he going to do better? His best showings were among those who usually vote Democratic and those who pronounce themselves “satisfied” with Obama’s job performance. In short, he is not GOP nominee material in 2012.

Santorum and Newt Gingrich were back-and-forth most of the evening for fourth place, but both were so far out of third that it hardly matters their final ranking relative to one another. Neither was fatally wounded, but I doubt either can survive much longer without a win, or near-win, in South Carolina on Jan. 21. Ditto Rick Perry, who essentially skipped New Hampshire.

One or all three of them, however, might be able to wound Romney in South Carolina. If so, this thing could drag out until Super Tuesday. If not, and if Romney wins the Palmetto State, it will be difficult to see how anyone seizes enough momentum, support and funds to overtake him.

– By Kyle Wingfield

111 comments Add your comment

The REAL GodHatesTrash, Superstar

January 11th, 2012
6:07 am

Romney is the least insane of all the reprobates running for the GOP nomination, aside from Huntsman. The other kooks and crazies will do better in SC – more racists and fundies in Dixie – though, and in any primaries where only registered Republicans (also known as whiny crazy bitter fools) – such as Florida – can vote in the primary. This contest won’t be won for awhile, but Mittens has the inside lane in the curve…

independent thinker

January 11th, 2012
6:27 am

I am not impressed by 39% in his home state – you would think that he beat Obama the way he was acting last night,

Ayn Rant

January 11th, 2012
7:34 am

What’s with all the iWooho.com references? Is some idiot celebrating Romney’s “win” of 40% of the Republicans and independents in New Hampshire? That means 60% of those voters don’t want him.

So, the circus moves on to South Carolina, where Republican voters are even goofier than the candidates. Perry should garner a huge sympathy vote: he’s dumber than George Bush. Santorum deserves the evangelicals: his heartless “Christianity” resonates with the Scripturally ignorant. And, Gingrich might even make a second-tier showing: he’s repented of his heavy baggage, and now has assumed the authority to judge the morality of others.

Let’s try to keep a straight face and a stiff upper lip as the Republicans go through the charade of picking a wacko to oppose Obama in November!

Joe The Plumber too.

January 11th, 2012
7:52 am

ann & godhates, whats the matter? Are you just starting to realize that it’s only 300 days until urkle & me-shell get the eviction papers. My dog could beat the little boy currently writing on the walls in crayon in the Oval Office. Can’t wait to see you crybabies on the blogs after urkle gets FIRED.

Ross Perot

January 11th, 2012
8:00 am

So, the circus moves on to South Carolina, where Republican voters are even goofier than the candidates.
Must be a mid-towner, where voters think the most important issues facing the country are gay rights and abortion, and name calling and stereotyping doesn’t exist unless people with a different view do it….

carlosgvv

January 11th, 2012
8:01 am

Joe – 7:52

And you honestly think Romney or Huntsman, Gingrich, Perry, Santorum or Paul could do substantially better than Obama? What have you been smoking, boy? Go back to your religious delusions and leave politics to the grownups.

Joe The Plumber too.

January 11th, 2012
8:03 am

ross: Goofy? Guess you haven’t seen any pictures or listened to any soundbites of urkle obama lately. Talk about goofy. That clown is the grand prize winner.

Joe The Plumber too.

January 11th, 2012
8:06 am

little carlos, you know better than to call a black man boy…why by dumpocrap measurements you must be a racist!!!!!!! Pull your head out bof urkles butt long enough to learn the truth..boy.

Goldie

January 11th, 2012
8:14 am

Face it, Repubs — you’re stuck with ole Mitt, the least crazy amongst the crazies… and maybe he’ll even select The Donald as his running mate and then they can both talk about how they love to “fire people”! Great strategy for running against President Obama (snark!). :)

Casual Observer

January 11th, 2012
8:18 am

Do you know how hard it is to get 40% in New Hampshire? Look back in History. Almost never happens in a contested election.

Joe The Plumber too.

January 11th, 2012
8:18 am

goldie: 300 days until Resident urkle gets evicted by True Americans. Perhaps you can go help in pack, and load, he’s a bit scrawny you know.

carlosgvv

January 11th, 2012
8:30 am

Joe – 8:06

You are in way over your head here, Joe. All you’re really doing is embarassing yourself by such crude and ignorant remarks. Even the NAACP wishes you would just go away.

Joe The Plumber too.

January 11th, 2012
8:40 am

NAACP, now theres an organization that is worthless today. It did such good work years ago but is now no more than a launching pad for the race pimps that really embarass black americans. Doesn’t surprise me at all carlos that someone with weak mind as you demonstrate on these blogs daily would be a fan. Now, I guess I better get these trucks rolling so I can get a bunch of bedwetters ebt cards charged today. After all, it’s the American thing to do. Work hard and support the dead weight, and to use you libs favorite word, be nice to me until my return or else it won’t be FAIR….. fools all.

Aquagirl

January 11th, 2012
9:07 am

You are in way over your head here, Joe. All you’re really doing is embarassing yourself by such crude and ignorant remarks.

Look at it this way….every time Joe posts, an Obama voter gets their wings. What a miserable, angry person.

clyde

January 11th, 2012
9:11 am

Romney pulls ahead in the first turn.Now comes the South. It will be rough sledding there for Romney.Second place in S.C? Maybe third?

Ross Perot

January 11th, 2012
9:13 am

ross: Goofy?
I was cracking on Ayn Rant Joe, check her post.

jconservative

January 11th, 2012
9:30 am

Romney will do well in South Carolina. He was endorsed by the sitting Governor, Nikki Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants of the Sikh religion. So his Mormon religion should not be a problem.
Haley won the 2010 Republican primary with 65% of the vote. (She also had the endorsement of Romney and Sarah Palin, a curious pairing of political interests).

The interesting point is Gingrich abandoning Conservative principles of belief in private enterprise and
trashing Romney as a practitioner of American capitalism.

If Gingrich does not believe in Capitalism what does he believe? Socialism? Communism?

Somali Republican

January 11th, 2012
9:32 am

Joe Plumber had extra large eye holes on his hood. He sees all.

td

January 11th, 2012
9:45 am

I see the libs are on the attack this morning. Joe speaks the truth about the messiah and chief and the fangs come out and the attack begins. Keep up the good work Joe and ignore these mean spirted libs.

Somali Republican

January 11th, 2012
9:46 am

td , the grand wizard boot licker speaks from his heart

MarkV

January 11th, 2012
10:03 am

Joe The Plumber too. @8:18 am “300 days until Resident urkle gets evicted by True Americans. Perhaps you can go help in pack, and load, he’s a bit scrawny you know.”

Can anyone discern even a speck of intelligence in a post like that? Somebody else than td, of course.

td

January 11th, 2012
10:03 am

Kyle,

I think we need to do a pool with all your conservative posters about how many times between now and election day that the lib posters will either use the race card or call a poster a racist. I would be willing to bet the number will increase with each and every day we get closer to the election.

JDW

January 11th, 2012
10:12 am

Looks like Romney is inevitable but I think it may be a while before the Republican attack machine lets up.

Kyle, on another subject, I see that Georgia Republicans in the Senate can’t even get to the chamber on time…looks to me like yet another session where nothing gets done…

Byte Me

January 11th, 2012
10:14 am

96,000 people voted for Mitt yesterday. Compare to 75,000 voting for him in 2008 primary.

243,000 people voted for a Republican yesterday. In 2008 primary, that number was 234,000.

After campaigning for 5 years, he only raised his results from 32% to 39%. Not exactly a spectacular showing.

Kyle Wingfield

January 11th, 2012
10:18 am

JDW: I’ll tackle the Ga Senate situation in my Thursday column, posted here first thing tomorrow a.m.

td

January 11th, 2012
10:20 am

Byte Me

January 11th, 2012
10:14 am

And if Romney can improve the vote totals by 7% in the general election then he will have a landslide victory. If he can increase 2% more votes then McCain then Obama will be sent back to Chicago.

@@

January 11th, 2012
10:24 am

…but he lapped the field (62 percent!) among those who said job No. 1 is beating President Obama.

And ^^^ that’s where I fear conservative voters have been misled by…not only the media…but GOP insiders who think they know what’s good for us.

“What Romney was doing was not traditional free-market capitalism but a deliberate, predatory, corporate mugging,” said Mr. Tyler.

^^^ That’s a distinction WITH a difference in my opinion.

In other words…Romney attacks corporations ending in job losses. A close resemblance to what Obama’s doing. Again…just my opinion, which is worth about 2 cents.

MarkV

January 11th, 2012
10:29 am

We need to start a file of every stupid thing the Republican candidates will say in this campaign. On second thought, scratch that. That would be an impossible task.

Most of those statements and answers pass almost unnoticed. Some are even applauded by the Republican audiences. I do not mean just Perry’s “literally speed of light” with which, according to him, Iranians move to Iraq. That is on par with him. But take Romney’s to a college student: “What I can promise you is this – when you get out of college, if I’m president you’ll have a job. If President Obama is reelected, you will not be able to get a job.” That was only a stupid statement, which George Stephanopoulos, forced by professional etiquette, called an “easy answer.” But when Newt Gingrich called it “not an easy statement, but a statement of fact,” some Republicans in the audience applauded, while George was unable to say what he should have said: “ Sir, are you an idiot, or are you just trying to sound like one?”

Joe The Plumber too.

January 11th, 2012
10:30 am

The funniest part of these lib posters screaming racism is accusing me of wearing a sheet. A black klansman…..priceless.

carlosgvv

January 11th, 2012
10:44 am

Joe

It’s hard to believe any black man would trash Obama the way you do here. Therefore, it seems far more likely you do have a sheet and hood in your closet. Either way, you know it’s ok to be a black man. Really, Joe, it’s ok to be black.

carlosgvv

January 11th, 2012
10:46 am

td

When McRomney gets to be president, you won’t have Obama to kick around any more. Guess what? He will be even worse than Obama.

MrLiberty

January 11th, 2012
10:46 am

Mission Accomplished will be winning the presidency for Ron Paul and that is what is going to happen, one way or the other. Influencing the platform will mean little and both republicans and democrats have great sounding platforms and elect worthless presidents who ignore the platform as soon as their inaugural address is concluded.

Ron Paul had an outstanding finish yesterday, but it goes to show that even a state whose motto is “Live Free or Die” can willingly support a candidate like Romney that cares nothing about freedom, liberty, sound economics, sound foreign policy, etc.

Rafe Hollister

January 11th, 2012
10:52 am

Joe, good points.

Newt has got to go. Over the years he always made good points, you get behind him, and then he gets off in the weeds and implodes. The man is unstable and should join Jimmy Carter in the Plains Nursing home. I think if I was Romney, I would just start offering sympathy for his mental state everytime he attacked me. Newt has taken spite to a new level, diminish what you have accomplished throughout your life, just to get even with an opponent.

@@, yes they closed some companies that were failing and let the employees go, but that is economic freedom. For every job lost at these places they grew and expanded other companies, like Staples, adding jobs. Sad for those losing their jobs, but companies lose their markets everyday, like Kodak and Blockbuster. Why keep a failing company around to suffer more loses before it eventually goes bankrupt anyway.

Rafe Hollister

January 11th, 2012
10:55 am

A president worse than Oblamer? No person like that has been born yet.

UGA 1999

January 11th, 2012
10:56 am

Romeny will get the nomination and the election. I just wonder who is running mate is going to be. Right now all eyes are on Christie.

MrLiberty

January 11th, 2012
10:57 am

Bush=Obama=McCain=Romney=Huntsman=Gingrich=Perry. There is only one candidate that actually stands for something other than perpetual war and the status quo. Ron Paul.

td

January 11th, 2012
11:01 am

MarkV

January 11th, 2012
10:29 am

Let us do look at a few statements by our Comrade in Chief:

“I chose my friends carefully. The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. The Marxist professors and structural feminists and punk-rock performance poets.” – Barack Obama (Dreams of My Father)

“Political discussions, the kind at Occidental had once seemed so intense and purposeful, came to take on the flavor of the socialist conferences I sometimes attended at Cooper Union” – Barack Obama (Dreams of My Father)

“It’s because you have an obligation to yourself. Because our individual salvation depends on collective salvation.” – Barack Obama

UGA 1999

January 11th, 2012
11:01 am

MrLiberty – Ron has some interesting ideas however I think they are too radical for todays climate.

td

January 11th, 2012
11:03 am

carlosgvv

January 11th, 2012
10:46 am
td

When McRomney gets to be president, you won’t have Obama to kick around any more. Guess what? He will be even worse than Obama.

Can not be worse because Romney will have to sign the Tea Party bills from the house and then we will turn this ship around and heading back in the right direction.

Byte Me

January 11th, 2012
11:04 am

And if Romney can improve the vote totals by 7% in the general election then he will have a landslide victory

And if pigs could fly out of my butt… then your statement would have just as much validity.

In a similarly crowded 2008 primary in NH, Obama LOST with over 101,000 votes. More than Romney got after spending most of the past 5 years campaigning there.

Just Sayin

January 11th, 2012
11:08 am

td,

Let’s See

So far today Joe the Plumber too has:
Called the President and his wife “Urkle & me-shell”
Claimed “My dog could beat the little boy currently writing on the walls in crayon in the Oval Office”
Called people who dare to disagree with him Crybabies
Called the President a clown
Called democrats dumpocraps
Told Carlos to “Pull your head out bof urkles butt”
Called the President scrawny
Called the NAACP “race pimps that really embarass black americans”
Called Carlos weak minded.
Called people on ebt a “bunch of bedwetters”
Called anyone who would vote for Obama “fools”

Now which of those things qualify as “truth” and which qualify as opinion? And it is interested to note that of the NINE of the ELEVEN thing I pointed out started with the word “called”.

Sounds like someone need to learn not to call names and somebody else need to learn the difference between “truth” and “opinion”.

Just Sayin

Rafe Hollister

January 11th, 2012
11:12 am

Mr Liberty
Ron Paul has ideas many of which I wish we had adopted 50 years ago, but are not practical in this election. We are not going back on the Gold standard, our worthless money would not buy enough gold to fill the Hollister house much less Ft Knox. We are not going to do away with the Federal Reserve, although I wish we could. We are not going to cut 1 T dollars from next years budget, we can’t even agree to cut 1.2 T over the next 10 years. What does he have left, make friends with Iran? Tear down our border fences so we can ‘escape’?

Rafe Hollister

January 11th, 2012
11:17 am

Just Sayin

Did you object when people said Bush/Cheney staged 9/11. Or, Bush invaded Iraq for the oil, or Bush was trying to get even for Saddam trying to kill his father. Did you call him Shrub, Shrubie, Bushie, Dumyah. Did you say he should be arrested for war crimes. Haliburton, Haliburton!

Just the way the dumb masses are given their taking points, I’m afraid.

Somali Republican

January 11th, 2012
11:21 am

td=truth denier

td

January 11th, 2012
11:22 am

Just Sayin

January 11th, 2012
11:08 am

All the statements about the President could be true or could be false but that is in the eye of the reading or writing such comments. I would prefer to refer to him for what he is and that is a European welfare state socialist.

“Called the NAACP “race pimps that really embarass black americans”

I am not African American so I can not speak to the embarrassment factor but being “race pimps” is certainly a fact.

“Called people on ebt a “bunch of bedwetters”

I would prefer parasites as a more accurate description but welfare dependent socialist is probably more correct.

“Called anyone who would vote for Obama “fools””

What would you prefer: Unintelligent, uninformed, misguided? I think fool works because if you would vote for him again then you are being pretty foolish.

Just Sayin

January 11th, 2012
11:25 am

Rafe,

Actually I do object when people say Bush staged 911, when people called him Shrub or other names or say that he should be arrested for war crimes. The reasons for the invasion of Iraq are still a mystery to me and people are free to have opinions and disagree on policy, but spouting your opinion on such matters as fact and demeaning those who dare to disagree is infantile.

Such things debase political debate and have no place in it.

What’s your point?

redneckbluedog

January 11th, 2012
11:27 am

GOOD MORNING..!!! Ahhh…what a FABULOUS time to be a “Southern Reagan Democrat”…Are you Republicans all fired up and ready to elect the first NON-CHRISTIAN PRESIDENT EVER..!?!? And you have Karl Rove’s blessing..?!?!?! That’s kind of odd…you know, a man with HIS Southern Christian credentials……

NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS WOULD I HAVE THOUGH I WOULD BE SAYING THAT…..:-)….

redneckbluedog

January 11th, 2012
11:29 am

Now, you could vote for Romney on a Tuesday, and then go to church the following Sunday and pray that he turns into a Christian…or, you could vote for President Obama on a Tuesday and then pray that he turns in to a white Republican…he’s halfway there on both counts….ME..!?!? I’m just going down the path of LIBERTY….Gary Johnson….:-)….

td

January 11th, 2012
11:31 am

redneckbluedog

January 11th, 2012
11:27 am

We have already elected a NON-CHRISTIAN President and he is currently sitting in the White House. Liberation Theology does not remotely resemble any Christian faith I have ever studied.

Just Sayin

January 11th, 2012
11:34 am

td,

So which of the things that Joe said about Obama “could be true of could be false?”
Is he urkle?
Is he writing on the walls of the WH with crayon?
Is he a clown?
I guess some find him scrawny but I don’t see the relevancy there.
I am not even going to address your calling every single person on ebt a parasite. That shows a cold hearted ignorance of the plight of others and a bigotry that is incomprehensible to me.
Now this is going to be the hard part for you. There are a great number of people, arguably more than half of voting Americans, that disagree with you on the President. People who are intelligent and informed that actually agree with his policies and what he has done. Now granted some may be blindly following the man, but are you so arrogant as to believe that every single vote for Obama is cast out of a lack of intelligence, a lack of information or just plain being misguided. Because if you do then you really should stop listening to so many talking heads and start talking AND LISTENING to people who have a different opinion.

Either that or you can continue to revel in your own ignorance.