Third-quarter GDP report is a big lump of coal

Another economic report, another downward revision to growth numbers once trumpeted as the sign that happy days were here again:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the third quarter of 2011 … according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.0 percent ….

And in the first estimate, the increase in real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) GDP was 2.5 percent. Which means growth in the third quarter was much closer to the paltry rate we saw from April to June — well under the long-term trend rate of about 2.75 percent — than the encouraging, near-trend rate initially thought.

Consumer spending in the quarter was disappointing. So were corporate profits: After a banner year in 2010 that helped to fuel the anti-corporate protests this year, they’re on pace to grow more slowly than in even that dismal, recessionary year, 2009.

We can hope that the fourth quarter will have been better: The job-market numbers have at least shown some signs of firming up, though not of taking off. But as things stand, July to September represented the second straight quarter in which year-on-year growth was less than 2 percent. Research by the Federal Reserve indicates a 70 percent chance of a recession after even one quarter in which that’s the case.

Just in case you’ve waited until the last minute to put in your requests to Santa.

– By Kyle Wingfield

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102 comments Add your comment

saywhat?

December 22nd, 2011
12:34 pm

When the GOP decide to help the economic recovery instead of sabotage it, you will start getting the numbers you are looking for. I always predicted it would take 8-10 years to fully recover from the disaster that was the W presidency. It takes along time to climb out of the hole as deep as the one Republicans dug us into.

Fresh Prince of Belfast

December 22nd, 2011
12:35 pm

I keep waiting for the heroics of the private sector to save us; alas I fear we have been abandoned by them.

Sherlock

December 22nd, 2011
12:37 pm

But, but Georga Stephanopolos said …

Big Brother

December 22nd, 2011
12:50 pm

Boy, the Tree Hugging Clean Air Pure Water Sensitivity Trained Social Engineering Liberals/Progressives will be lined up to pawn this off. Lets see, I think it goes like this.

Rule # 1 – It’s George Bush’s fault.
Rule # 2 – Only Obama can save us.
Rule # 3 – All people paying taxes should pay more taxes so Obama can give more to those not paying taxes.
Rule # 4 – All corporations are evil and rich, unless they contribute to Democratic causes.
Rule # 5 – Anyone who disagrees with the above rules is racist.
Rule # 6 – Repeat Rules 1 – 5 above, over and over.

getalife

December 22nd, 2011
12:57 pm

Looks like another downgrade every two months because of the gop stunts to shut down government.

They deserve another downgrade.

JDW

December 22nd, 2011
12:58 pm

@Kyle, again the issue remains…poor though it is it is better than any identified alternatives.

Q3 2011 represents the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. During that time growth has averaged 2.35%. It also represents a second consecutive rise from the .4% growth in Q1, where we averted a double dip. It is improvement.

During Bush’s 8 year term growth averaged 2.03%. The only thing on the table so far is an extension of those failed policies. At least what we are doing now is better than that.

Don't Tread

December 22nd, 2011
1:06 pm

Wonder what the fourth and fifth revisions will say GDP was?

There’s been a lot of economic “revisioning” lately, no doubt by the same mindset that has passed no government budgets for the past few years, even though mandated by law. Creative accounting, indeed.

td

December 22nd, 2011
1:11 pm

saywhat?

December 22nd, 2011
12:34 pm
When the GOP decide to help the economic recovery instead of sabotage it,

That statement is coming from a prospective that believes government should be and is capable of helping the overall economy. The current Federal government has not helped the recovery and has really hindered the recovery by over regulation, rising debt and Obama care. The more government stays out of the way the faster the economy will recover.

td

December 22nd, 2011
1:14 pm

Big Brother

December 22nd, 2011
12:50 pm

Excellent analysis of what will happen on this blog now.

BULLSEYE

December 22nd, 2011
1:17 pm

td=total dork

td

December 22nd, 2011
1:19 pm

DW

December 22nd, 2011
1:15 pm

I see Billy (the dead drug addict that got hammered by Kyle two days ago) has come back on under another alternate name today but is up to the same lib mantra.

yuzeyurbrane

December 22nd, 2011
1:21 pm

the only trouble with td’s opinions is that there is little or no evidence to back them up. Recent surveys of businessman have rated regulation as a very insignificant factor in their investment decisions, rising govt. debt has not crowded out the private capital market which is flush with cash stuck in the mattress and the U.S. Treasury rates remain at record lows while the demand for them is high, and most of Obamacare has yet to even be implemented.

td

December 22nd, 2011
1:22 pm

BULLSEYE

December 22nd, 2011
1:17 pm
td=total dork

No you are wrong again. But I did just score another TOUCH DOWN by making a liberal act like a liberal. LOL

Hope you have a very Merry Christmas and pray that Santa brings you some intelligent my friend.

findog

December 22nd, 2011
1:23 pm

td, what “new” regulations that were not leftovers from W’s departments that they were already scheduled to take effect have hindered growth?

Dusty

December 22nd, 2011
1:24 pm

JDW

Well, you have now passed the final test for certifying yourself as a true Democrat! BUSH DID IT!!

Now repeat after me: OBAMA IS PRESIDENT NOW! He has been for three years.

Maybe Obama is a forgetable president. You don’t mention him much. He is supposed to be running the country, even while he makes re-election efforts his most notable “work”.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

December 22nd, 2011
1:26 pm

GDP growth is pathetic. Growth following recessions has historically been above the long-run average, and growth has been stronger following deep recessions than shallow ones.

Obozo has so mismanaged the economy that two and a half years after the end of the recession, most people think we’re still in one.

But that’s what excessive regulation, uncertainty over tax rates, continual business bashing, and government hassling a la NLRB-Boeing will get you.

Obozo is a menace to freedom and economic growth and must be returned to public life next November.

a dad

December 22nd, 2011
1:27 pm

While part of me wonders whether agreeing to the two-month extension of payroll tax deductions currently on the table should be acceptable, I’m flabbergasted by those demonizing the GOP for insisting on a full year’s extension of that very same deduction. Doesn’t it seem logical that if a two-month extension is such a good thing that a full year’s extention would be even better? Am I missing something here (other than not letting the deduction expire in general)? Lib reasoning, or rather the lack thereof, simply amazes me to no end.

SwamiDave

December 22nd, 2011
1:28 pm

So…..

When we got the first celebratory “estimate”, we were told it was “evidence” of the “success” of PrezBO & his collectivist Keynesian brethren.

Now that we are getting second and third downgrade estimates as actual information trickles in, its “Bush’s fault” again.

Oh the joys of Liberalism – Take credit for what you didn’t do and Blame others for your own failures.

-SD

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

December 22nd, 2011
1:30 pm

what “new” regulations that were not leftovers from W’s departments that they were already scheduled to take effect have hindered growth?
—————

Perhaps you’ve heard of Obozocare? Higher taxes on health care providers, medical device developers, pharmaceutical companies? New environmental regulations with no cost/benefit rationale? The NLRB hassling of Boeing?

Wake up, receptacle.

Fresh Prince of Belfast

December 22nd, 2011
1:32 pm

Big Brother

December 22nd, 2011
12:50 pm

Boy, the Tree Hugging Clean Air Pure Water Sensitivity Trained Social Engineering Liberals/Progressives will be lined up to pawn this off. Lets see, I think it goes like this.

Rule # 1 – It’s George Bush’s fault.
Rule # 2 – Only Obama can save us.
Rule # 3 – All people paying taxes should pay more taxes so Obama can give more to those not paying taxes.
Rule # 4 – All corporations are evil and rich, unless they contribute to Democratic causes.
Rule # 5 – Anyone who disagrees with the above rules is racist.
Rule # 6 – Repeat Rules 1 – 5 above, over and over.

Get a new act already for god’s sake

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

December 22nd, 2011
1:32 pm

td, you must have really tweaked the libtards today! Quite the collection of hate-filled fact-free, spittle-laced invective being hurled your way.

Fresh Prince of Belfast

December 22nd, 2011
1:34 pm

td

December 22nd, 2011
1:19 pm

DW

December 22nd, 2011
1:15 pm

I see Billy (the dead drug addict that got hammered by Kyle two days ago) has come back on under another alternate name today but is up to the same lib mantra.

Deal with it bro

JDW

December 22nd, 2011
1:35 pm

@Dusty…”Well, you have now passed the final test for certifying yourself as a true Democrat! BUSH DID IT!!”

The comparison I made is accurate the conclusion you drew from it is yours.

“Now repeat after me: OBAMA IS PRESIDENT NOW! He has been for three years. ”

And as I pointed out we are doing better for it.

“Maybe Obama is a forgetable president. You don’t mention him much. He is supposed to be running the country, even while he makes re-election efforts his most notable “work”.”

I believe history will remember him as very average, unlike his predecessor who will fight for the bottom spot for years to come. If there were a better option I would take it but I am smart enough to know that Mittens or Newt aren’t it.

Fresh Prince of Belfast

December 22nd, 2011
1:36 pm

So far in this thread the only people talking about blaming Bush for the economy are Republicans!

DebbieDoRight

December 22nd, 2011
1:39 pm

I think Kyle sees dead people, (Cons “dying” at the polls over their latest “hold up the government” stunts).

Don’t worry Kyle — it’ll be o.k. Take another, “The Private Sector Will Save Us” pill.

Fresh Prince of Belfast

December 22nd, 2011
1:40 pm

Just a heads up, the only people who reply to and agree with TD are his alt accounts, it makes them easy to pick out.

Fresh Prince of Belfast

December 22nd, 2011
1:41 pm

Isn’t the GOP doing the same thing that got them in trouble after the Republican Revolution in the 90s? Holding the government budget hostage and stonewalling everything unless they got their way? It backfired on them then, and seems to be starting to do the same now.

td

December 22nd, 2011
1:45 pm

Lil’ Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

December 22nd, 2011
1:32 pm

All I did was to agree with Big Brother on the lefts tactics and disagree about the role of government in the economy with Saywhat?

I guess the libs just found the lump of coal in their stockings and decided to blame me today instead of taking responsibility for their own actions for the past year.

DebbieDoRight

December 22nd, 2011
1:49 pm

He is supposed to be running the country, even while he makes re-election efforts his most notable “work”.”

Hmmm and let’s see what the Republican Congress think is the best “work” for them in 2012…..

The House will be in session less than one out of every three days next year, a slight decline from past years. House Republicans say they are running the place more efficiently and lawmakers need the time to be with constituents in an election year. Democrats say that’s too few days on the job during an economic crisis.

Under the tentative calendar, the House would have only six voting days in January. There would be three working days in August, when Congress usually takes off, and the House would be off from Oct. 5 until a week after Election Day on Nov. 6. The last scheduled session of the year would be on Dec. 14.

In 2008, the last presidential election year when Democrats controlled the House, the House met for 119 days.

Honestly, I can’t believe you posted something like that!! I mean REALLY?!? You REALLY posted that! hahahahahahahaha!!!! Can’t stop laughing….can’t stop laughing…….

BULLSEYE

December 22nd, 2011
1:50 pm

td=lil Barry Brown eye

DebbieDoRight

December 22nd, 2011
1:52 pm

Perhaps you’ve heard of Obozocare? Higher taxes on health care providers, medical device developers, pharmaceutical companies?

Did that happen this year ALREADY?!?! WTF!!! Do you guys actually READ what you post — or is English not your first language so you really don’t comprehend half of the crap you post? :roll:

jd

December 22nd, 2011
1:52 pm

House GOP brags it is stopping O’s agenda. Therefore, O’s agenda can’t negatively or positively affect the economy. Thus, GOP is responsible for GDP numbers.

Dusty

December 22nd, 2011
1:53 pm

Fresh Prince of Belfast,

I don’t believe that JDW is a Republican. He was the first to mention Bush and that was to blame him. Then he subtly suggests that he will vote for no Republican. Doesn’t like them!

So JDW is going to vote for a man whom he admits has hit bottom for his presidental actions.

Not a straight partyline Democrat? Who would have ever guessed? I think JDW may be trying to fool himself.

DebbieDoRight

December 22nd, 2011
1:53 pm

Oh the joys of Liberalism Republicanism – Take credit for what you didn’t do and Blame others for your own failures.

THERE! Fixed it for ya! Don’t thank me. I do this out of love for my fellow man……….

td

December 22nd, 2011
1:54 pm

JDW

December 22nd, 2011
1:35 pm

Your first mistake is believing that true conservative thought Bush was one of us and not just another big government progressive on domestic policy. We had enough of Bush’s domestic agenda after the 2006 election and formed the tea party to deal with big government progressives from both parties. All Obama has done is continue with and enhanced Bush’s domestic progressive agenda just like he followed Bush’s foreign policy. The difference is that Obama has taken the progressive agenda to the socialist model.

DebbieDoRight

December 22nd, 2011
1:57 pm

dad: I’m flabbergasted by those demonizing the GOP for insisting on a full year’s extension of that very same deduction. Doesn’t it seem logical that if a two-month extension is such a good thing that a full year’s extention would be even better? Am I missing something here (other than not letting the deduction expire in general)? Lib reasoning, or rather the lack thereof, simply amazes me to no end.

Yes dad you are missing something. The part about “How we are going to PAY for the Full Year Deduction”. That’s the part neither party could agree on (at ths juncture), that’s why they only temporarily passed the bill.

:roll:

td

December 22nd, 2011
1:57 pm

DebbieDoRight

December 22nd, 2011
1:49 pm

Again you believe government is the answer to our woes and not the problem. If Obama and the Democratic Senate is not going to cut government, reduce taxes and reduce regulation then it is the best move for the country that they do nothing at all.

Fresh Prince of Belfast

December 22nd, 2011
1:59 pm

td

December 22nd, 2011
1:45 pm

I guess the libs just found the lump of coal in their stockings and decided to blame me today instead of taking responsibility for their own actions for the past year.

You can be blamed for most of the bad posts around here

Dusty

December 22nd, 2011
1:59 pm

Well, hi, DebbieDoRight

Didn’t Dudley get home for Christmas? You seem a little off your “feed” and shooting off little pop items.

Well, don’t forget to mention that George W. Bush once choked on a pretzel. That seems to be a big “dishonor” you always like to mention. Even getalife has not mentioned that one yet.

Tommy Maddox

December 22nd, 2011
2:02 pm

Well it’s a good thing that those blasted corporations are making less money! That’ll show ‘em!

I bet it’s Pres. Bush’s fault too!

Howard

December 22nd, 2011
2:04 pm

And, if Republicans continue to hold up the payroll tax cut extension for the middle class and unemployment benefit extensions for those out of work they will be responsible for further weakening the economy. Republicans are driving the ship of state off a cliff out of blind obedience to Grover Norquist and the Tea Party.

Fresh Prince of Belfast

December 22nd, 2011
2:04 pm

Dusty

December 22nd, 2011
1:53 pm

Fresh Prince of Belfast,

I don’t believe that JDW is a Republican. He was the first to mention Bush and that was to blame him.

Read his post again, he said “…During Bush’s 8 year term growth averaged 2.03%. The only thing on the table so far is an extension of those failed policies. At least what we are doing now is better than that.”

Mentioning ≠ Blaming, he pointed out that the GOP is tabling the same policies as Bush. That doesn’t equate to blaming Bush.

Fresh Prince of Belfast

December 22nd, 2011
2:05 pm

Tommy Maddox

December 22nd, 2011
2:02 pm

Well it’s a good thing that those blasted corporations are making less money! That’ll show ‘em!

I bet it’s Pres. Bush’s fault too!

A piece of advice: try harder.

Kyle Wingfield

December 22nd, 2011
2:13 pm

Billy Mays Here/Fresh Prince/Taft Pack: I’ve give you this: You may be a troll, but you’re a hardy troll.

TimeForRealChange

December 22nd, 2011
2:18 pm

I love how so many liberals are all worked up over the payroll tax cut that will maybe make a $40 difference on a monthly paycheck, but don’t seem to care about the new EPA regulations that will cost consumers more than $40/month in increased energy costs, and Obama is blocking an oil pipeline that could bring jobs as well as lower costs for oil, with the added advantage of it not going straight to China.

Lest we forget, we have a President who promised sky high energy prices as a way to… Well, I’m not sure… To crush Americans? You guys who are worried about the possible non-extension of payroll tax cut (which has been shown to have no long term positive effect on the economy, but will help destroy social security faster) are going to love how your electric bills rise far more than $40 over the next year or so, thanks to your man Obama.

Dusty

December 22nd, 2011
2:18 pm

td

We may agree on many things but we differ somewhat on Georgie W. Bush. I am so glad he was president when 9/11 happened and it was he that pulled us to our feet. That I do not forget. A weak president could not have done it.

As to his economic decisions after the second election, he was facing a tidal wave and did what he could. The cost of TARP has been repaid. What exactly would you or anybody else have done?

I am afraid you did open the door for a Democratic washout and now we have a weak president and an ecnomy still wavering with an increased unbelievable debt. And this president wants to add more?

I see you dismiss Bush’s first years . Democrats laid the groundwork for Bush blame and you joined the chorus. I hope you don’t do it again because the Democrats are using the same methods they used before (but without ACORN and the likes).

Obama is not a president to lead us forward or uplift this country. Do not forget what we have learned.

carlosgvv

December 22nd, 2011
2:18 pm

Actually, corporations are awash in cash as they continue to lay off workers and pile the additional work on their remaining employees, who don’t dare quit. Meanwhile, the bought and paid for Republicans do exactly what they are told to do by their corporate masters. As long as the corporations are in the money and the Republican Tea Party is in power, I doubt that they give a flying fig about GDP.

td

December 22nd, 2011
2:20 pm

Kyle Wingfield

December 22nd, 2011
2:13 pm
Billy Mays Here/Fresh Prince/Taft Pack: I’ve give you this: You may be a troll, but you’re a hardy troll.

LMBO Kyle!!!!!! Dang I thought he/she was DW too.

Norquist was touched by Sandusky

December 22nd, 2011
2:25 pm

Funny to read how these keyboard ganagster call President Obama by another name. They will never say this to his face. You(gop) fools followed that villiage idiot from texas and the short man(grover) all these years. Now none of your candidates even want to mention bush by his name, let alone get an endorsement from him. You and your greed destroyed your party and your country. You cannot blame President Obama for your short comings(you gop’s with less than 3 inches)

td

December 22nd, 2011
2:25 pm

Dusty

December 22nd, 2011
2:18 pm

Please re read my post. I only mentioned his domestic policy. Bush was a GREAT President as far as protecting America from the Islamic terrorist.

I was also not talking about TARP because as much as I hate to admit it it was more than likely necessary to keep this country from a total collapse. I was more talking about No child left behind, Medicare part D and other actions that he followed the Democratic (Ted Kennedy) lead on helping pass. I was also talking about him not tackling the debt (although in his defense he probably did not have the time).