2012 Tuesday: As Newt declines, is Romney sealing the deal?

Is the Newt Gingrich boomlet over? And, if so, has Mitt Romney finally outlasted the anti-Romneys?

The news from Iowa of late has been stunning. One week ago today, in the Real Clear Politics average of polls in Iowa, Gingrich still held a double-digit lead on Romney and every other Republican. Today, he is third on average behind Romney and Ron Paul, including one fourth-place showing in which he also trails Rick Perry.

From Nov. 15 until Dec. 12, Gingrich led every major poll in the state. He’s now trailed in three straight — losing 14 percentage points in six days in Insider Advantage’s poll; eight points in five days in Public Policy Poll’s survey; and 12 points in 28 days according to Rasmussen Reports.

The caucuses take place in two weeks, and Iowans will of course be distracted by other things (Christmas, bowl games involving both Iowa and Iowa State, New Year’s) along the way. Gingrich has less money to spend than his rivals. The attack ads they’re running against him are taking a toll, and he’s going to have a hard, if not impossible, time turning the tide.

A victory by Paul is unlikely to foretell a surge for the Texas congressman. He’s not going to beat Romney in New Hampshire, and he’s still polling in the mid-single digits in South Carolina and Florida. There’s plenty of time, and we’ve been surprised plenty of times already in this race, but Paul has a lot of ground to make up and a few candidates to surpass in both of the Southern states. I still don’t think he can win the nomination.

So, short of an unexpected Paul surge beyond Iowa or a Perry comeback — I’d mention Jon Huntsman, but I don’t see how even his very good proposals for taxes and other policy areas can overcome the contempt he’s shown for the GOP base through most of this campaign — it would appear Romney has survived every challenger.

If so, the question becomes whether Romney is a stronger candidate for it. Has he allayed conservatives’ qualms about his implementation of an individual health-insurance mandate in Massachusetts? (If he had, I think he would have consolidated more support by now.) Is he ready to answer the inevitable, withering attacks from Democrats about his career at a private-equity firm and his wealth? (Maybe I’ve missed it, but I haven’t seen a robust explanation of creative destruction and the bigger picture from Romney, just a comparison to Obama’s record on jobs.) Is Romney proposing a sufficiently bold and conservative plan on the big economic issues, his ostensible bread and butter? (It would appear the answer is no.)

Those are but three questions, and I think my parenthetical answers to them should signal that Romney still hasn’t closed the sale. It may be that Romney keeps giving life to “anti-Romney” even after all his challengers have fallen by the wayside. Which would mean this contest still has a ways to go.

– By Kyle Wingfield

Find me on Facebook or follow me on Twitter

255 comments Add your comment

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:25 pm

bluecoat…..”we intend to vote for Obama regardless”……THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT WE ALL THOUGHT. YOU WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA NO MATTER HOW MUCH DAMAGE HE DOES TO OUR COUNTRY.

GREAT POST!

St Simons - we're on Island time

December 20th, 2011
2:25 pm

Looks like UGA may have the first real cancer vaccine.

And what did you do with your $200k cash, Auburn?

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:27 pm

St. Simons….right now the vaccine is only for breast and pancreatic cancers.

td

December 20th, 2011
2:32 pm

bluecoat

December 20th, 2011
2:23 pm
Student of Newt we intend to vote Obama regardless, count or not count.You just wanting us to stay home

I personally do not care if you vote or do not vote next year. I would hope that you are an informed voter when and if you decide to go to the polls. I am just letting everyone know that goes to the polls to vote for Obama in Georgia next year that there vote will not be counted. These are the true and undeniable facts of the situation.

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:33 pm

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:34 pm

Obama is the best Republican candidate out there

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:35 pm

td

December 20th, 2011
2:32 pm

bluecoat

December 20th, 2011
2:23 pm
Student of Newt we intend to vote Obama regardless, count or not count.You just wanting us to stay home

I personally do not care if you vote or do not vote next year. I would hope that you are an informed voter when and if you decide to go to the polls. I am just letting everyone know that goes to the polls to vote for Obama in Georgia next year that there vote will not be counted. These are the true and undeniable facts of the situation.

TD seems to think the electoral college is a new and mysterious entity rather than something we all learned about in middle school

Get a new act, TD.

redneckbluedog

December 20th, 2011
2:37 pm

Thanks, to John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Phil Gingrey, Lynn Westmoreland, Tom Price, Tom Graves, Robert Woodall, and Paul Broun, November 2012 is going to be a Democratic “WAVE” election, the likes of what we haven’t seen since 2008..!!!! I’m sick of it…and America is sick of it….Hope you TEA folks like the sound of “Speaker Pelosi”..!!!!

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:39 pm

Billy Mays….like it or not there is NO way that Obama wins Georgia. You guys might as well stay home.

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:40 pm

redneckbluedog

December 20th, 2011
2:37 pm

Thanks, to John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Phil Gingrey, Lynn Westmoreland, Tom Price, Tom Graves, Robert Woodall, and Paul Broun, November 2012 is going to be a Democratic “WAVE” election, the likes of what we haven’t seen since 2008..!!!! I’m sick of it…and America is sick of it….Hope you TEA folks like the sound of “Speaker Pelosi”..!!!!

No it’s not, Americans are going to vote for the same horrible politicians they always have and nothing will get better. Doesn’t matter if there’s a D or R beside their name, they’re crap. Voting for them only legitimizes them.

ByteMe

December 20th, 2011
2:41 pm

bluecoat

December 20th, 2011
2:42 pm

UGA hard to damage an inherited squashed watermelon.

gm

December 20th, 2011
2:44 pm

BILLY MAYS HERE

He did not win Georgia in 08 and won the election thank God for the people in the north and and midwest and west coast who are not closed minded red necks”””’

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:44 pm

Bill Mays….you really believe that Obama will carry Georgia??? HAHA

Thanks for the personal attack….I WIN!

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:45 pm

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:44 pm

Bill Mays….you really believe that Obama will carry Georgia??? HAHA

Thanks for the personal attack….I WIN!

What did you win

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:46 pm

gm…..Delta flies out west or up north….cya!

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:46 pm

Let’s count all the TD alt accounts in this thread… so far I’ve pinned down UGA 1999 and gm, any more?

td

December 20th, 2011
2:47 pm

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:35 pm

“TD seems to think the electoral college is a new and mysterious entity rather than something we all learned about in middle school”

Are you trying to tell us that the same 50 to 70% of the people that do not know where Iran is on a map, can not name the VP and can not tell you who there member of the House of Representatives are can tell you that we do not directly elect a President?

If you would like to bet, say $10,000, that you and I could go downtown tomorrow and ask 100 people if they know what the electoral college is and that at least 50 would say they do not or say they have heard of it but do not know exactly what it is.

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:47 pm

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:44 pm

Bill Mays….you really believe that Obama will carry Georgia??? HAHA

Never said that, keep reading until you understand my post

a dad

December 20th, 2011
2:47 pm

JDW and Lives – guys, I don’t know what it is you’re both smoking, but it obviously some truly primo you-know-what. I’m hoping for some change next year. As in change of the POTUS.
As for being called red-neck, stupid, etc., what is it about people that they can’t realize, or admit, that you can dislike Obama for non-racial reasons? I mean, he was a law student, community organizer and 1st term senator when he got elected. What kind of real-life experience does the man possess? Just a shame that some can’t own up to that fact.

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:48 pm

Billy Mays….that is the point! No one understands your rants.

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:48 pm

td

December 20th, 2011
2:47 pm

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:35 pm

“TD seems to think the electoral college is a new and mysterious entity rather than something we all learned about in middle school”

Are you trying to tell us that the same 50 to 70% of the people that do not know where Iran is on a map, can not name the VP and can not tell you who there member of the House of Representatives are can tell you that we do not directly elect a President?

If you would like to bet, say $10,000, that you and I could go downtown tomorrow and ask 100 people if they know what the electoral college is and that at least 50 would say they do not or say they have heard of it but do not know exactly what it is.

Yes dude, people besides you and me know about the electoral college and how it works

That’s why I keep telling you to get a new act

BULLSEYE

December 20th, 2011
2:49 pm

If you think any candidate will beat Obama, then put a 10 grand bet down right now.

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:50 pm

<i?a dad

December 20th, 2011
2:47 pm

what is it about people that they can’t realize, or admit, that you can dislike Obama for non-racial reasons?.

Because you can’t. Speaking as a white person, I’ve never heard another white person talk about the President without using racial slurs, because whites assume that every other white hates him too.

You’re just being defensive.

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:51 pm

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:48 pm

Billy Mays….that is the point! No one understands your rants.

They’re pretty easy to comprehend so really you’re just calling yourself out here

What Goes Around Comes Around

December 20th, 2011
2:51 pm

Is the Newt Gingrich boomlet over?

@@@@ YES!

Newt Gingrich supporters WE TOLD YOU SO! Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. :)

God don’t like UGLY. When you start messing with POOR CHILDREN you better look out!

What goes around comes around.

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:52 pm

I really hope Michelle Bachmann gets the nod. The only thing that would make that better would be for her to choose Palin as her running mate. God, it would be hysterical.

gm

December 20th, 2011
2:52 pm

td
I think you were one of the ones on these blogs a year before the mid terms that said Barnes would win in a landslide, Thurmond would be our next Sen:

Are you joking no way I would think the southern white male mind set is that far iadvance, he would vot for satan before he votes for a black male for Sen or Gov, his stupidy is why georgia is considered a joke around the world.
The tea party in the south did not surprise me, they were the modern day klan, only with out their hats, typical poor whites vote against their interest every time so this did not surprise me.

td

December 20th, 2011
2:53 pm

redneckbluedog

December 20th, 2011
2:37 pm

I think we had this discussion yesterday and you could not tell me which Congressmen will not be re elected next year. Like I said yesterday, in Georgia every single elected Representative (Dem or Republican) with the exception of Barrow (D) are guaranteed to be re elected. Georgia will also send one additional Republican to Congress due to reapportionment.

gm

December 20th, 2011
2:54 pm

UGA 1999

Can not go, running the under ground rail road here in Georgia ha, ha

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:56 pm

gm….running? Who is running. Obama will lose Georgia by a landslide. You are the one that should be used to the underground railroad.

Dude, please take an English grammar class…..

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
2:57 pm

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:56 pm

gm….running? Who is running. Obama will lose Georgia by a landslide. You are the one that should be used to the underground railroad.

Dude, please take an English grammar class…..

What was so hard to read about his post

Larry

December 20th, 2011
2:58 pm

I really don’t understand the right’s problem with Obama. He saved the American auto industry. He prevented complete financial catastrophe. (I know bailouts are unpopular, but if not for them, most economists say we would be much worse off). He wants everyone to not only have health insurance, but to actually PAY for it (heaven forbid). AND taxes for the vast majority of people are at or near all time LOWS.

We’ve killed Bin Laden, we’re pulling out of Iraq. Yes…unemployment is high (although trending down). But is he the blame for this? If so, please explain. And if Repubs are so worried about the deficite, then how can they be anti letting Bush’s tax cuts expire for the wealthy?

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:59 pm

Billy Mays….HAHAHAHA LMFAO…..WOW!!!

“Can not” or “Cannot”
“Rail road” or “Railroad”
go, running? Why is there a comma?

HAHAHAHA THIS IS PRICELESS!

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
3:00 pm

Larry…..WOW, where to start….do you really want an answer to your question?

wallbanger

December 20th, 2011
3:00 pm

I hope so. It is about time Republicans rallied around someone so we can move to defeat the uber bad President we currently have.

old timer

December 20th, 2011
3:01 pm

I just do not think Romney will hold up against Obama.

marauder

December 20th, 2011
3:01 pm

Kyle 2:07
In a word yes.
AGW is overwhelmingly accepted by the scientific community. The debate now concerns the rate of growth in global warming. On that note, we’re beginning to see methane being released from lakes in the tundra regions which could dramatically escalate the process.
I don’t know where you received your higher education but the theory of evolution was as accepted as the theory of gravity where I attended school.
As to genetic engineering, it’s never been addressed at all by the Republican base. The left doesn’t challenge the scientific method at all, just the unforeseen consequences of manipulating the food chain. The evolutionary result so to speak. The debate about proceeding with caution therefore is between Big Agribusiness and concerned plant geneticists (you know, scientists)
The Republican base is staunchly opposed to embryonic stem cell research even though thousands of stem cell samples are simply disposed of each year from fertility clinics.
As for not responding to a comment by some campaign aide ( which I’d never heard of. Was it cited at a debate ? ) That hardly constitutes “contempt through much of the campaign”.

Hillbilly D

December 20th, 2011
3:02 pm

Like I said yesterday, in Georgia every single elected Representative (Dem or Republican) with the exception of Barrow (D) are guaranteed to be re elected.

You’re right about that. About the only way an incumbent can lose, in the vast majority of races, anywhere in the country, is to do something incredibly stupid. Many times, even that won’t get them defeated. That’s the way the system is set-up, to protect the incumbents.

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
3:03 pm

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
2:59 pm

Billy Mays….HAHAHAHA LMFAO…..WOW!!!

“Can not” or “Cannot”
“Rail road” or “Railroad”
go, running? Why is there a comma?

HAHAHAHA THIS IS PRICELESS!

You remind me of a kitten that is enamored by a laser pointer.

Go away TD.

Odis

December 20th, 2011
3:05 pm

I find it interesting that Romney will get the nomination by ignoring the extreme right wing/tea partiers in the republican party. If he will ignore them in the primary you know he’ll ignore them even more if by some chance he wins the presidency. Romney will govern from the middle and marginalize the fringe right and social conservatives.

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
3:05 pm

Some highlights of the Obama administration:

extended the Patriot Act
protected Bush administration from prosecution
deported record numbers of undocumented immigrants
kept Guantanamo open
censored reporters covering military tribunals at Guantanamo
blocked UN human rights investigations at Guantanamo
awarded $250 million in contracts to Blackwater
sent 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan
promised $30 billion in military aid to Israel

How is this guy not the Republicans’ wet dream?

Odis

December 20th, 2011
3:07 pm

Larry the reason why the right hates Obama isn’t because of his policies it’s because he’s black and they all want him to fail, no matter how much it hurts the country and other Americans.

Ron Burgundy

December 20th, 2011
3:08 pm

I think its sad when we have TERRIBLE unemployment, TERRIBLE spending, more poverty, a great Muslim Brotherhood advance in the middle east, Iran still going towards nukes, a sustained housing crisis, a 28 year fatter version of Kim Jong and OBAMA STILL COULD WIN IN 2012!!!

I am not saying newt or Mitt is a savior but seriosuly, hte current president spent a trillion dollars on NOTHING. He spend billions bailing out GM to keep making crappy cars and sustaining the UAW (unions give 99% of money to dems). I mean how dumb has America gotten?

wallbanger

December 20th, 2011
3:10 pm

I am afraid Larry may be right about Obama winning. There are so many liberals who pay no attention to facts. Some don’t know that unemployment has been extended several times. Some don’t know that government employees make about 25% more than private employees. Some don’t know much, but they know a nice smile when they see it, and they want to be politically correct, and to demonstrate their love for all races, so they vote for Obama. What a mess. And the government has no business bailing out private companies in a capitalistic society. They have no business mandating private business loan money to dead beats either. So if government were to back off, we would be in a lot better shape.

UGA 1999

December 20th, 2011
3:12 pm

Old Timer…..why?

Cosby

December 20th, 2011
3:19 pm

Not a true Statesman among them!

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
3:19 pm

He spend billions bailing out GM to keep making crappy cars and sustaining the UAW (unions give 99% of money to dems). I mean how dumb has America gotten?

GM paid off it loans.

Can you back up your UAW figure?

redneckbluedog

December 20th, 2011
3:20 pm

I am a moderate Democrat (as my name would suggest)…I will be voting Obama over Romney because Obama is a Christian…..I never bought in to the whole “Tea Party Thing”….Not sure about those people…

They have had two chances to speed up America’s recovery…today, and earlier in the summer…and yet they voted to keep this country down…I am so sick and tired of this recession…but I can’t do anything about it in November because my Congressman is already a Democrat..!!!!

BILLY MAYS HERE

December 20th, 2011
3:20 pm

wallbanger

December 20th, 2011
3:10 pm

There are so many liberals who pay no attention to facts.

IRONY YALL