2012 Tuesday: Georgia’s shot at the GOP race’s spotlight

Yesterday, CNN and the Georgia Republican Party announced they’ll co-host a GOP debate sometime before our state’s March 6 primary. The exact date has yet to be determined, or at least made public, but the obvious question is: As long as it’s after the early states that get so much attention (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Nevada), will it matter?

The premise behind that question is that the early states will act to consolidate the Republican field well before March 6, and that “Super Tuesday” won’t be so super if a clear leader has emerged from the field. While that’s often been the case in past elections, there’s a chance the party’s rules this year will ensure that things are still up in the air by the time Georgia Republicans finally get to vote.

The Republican National Committee set two rules that are relevant here: First, any state that holds its primary or caucuses before Feb. 1, 2012, is subject to losing half of its delegates to the party’s nominating convention. Second, any state — other than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — that holds its primary or caucuses before April 1 must award its delegates in proportion to the votes they get, rather than giving them all to the winner.

Now, clearly we still have a long time to go before any states hold their primaries and caucuses — and those states have many voters who are undecided and/or who will change their minds about the candidates between now and then. But just for kicks, let’s see how the race would stack up by March 6 if things went the way they stand today. (I’ve used state-specific data collected by Real Clear Politics and, when possible, averaged. For states that haven’t had polls taken in the past month, I used the RCP average of national polls — I know that’s far from ideal but, again, this is just a thought experiment.)

Given those parameters, the delegates awarded by the 11 states that will cast votes before March 6 could total something like this (depending on whether the RNC follows through with its threat to take away delegates from the too-early birds):

Herman Cain: 94 to 120

Mitt Romney: 93 to 105

Newt Gingrich: 43 to 52

Rick Perry: 21 to 26

Ron Paul: 16 to 19

Michele Bachmann: 9 to 11

Rick Santorum: 6

Jon Huntsman: 4

Again, these numbers are for illustrative purposes. But what they illustrate is that the race could very much be in flux by the time Georgia holds its televised debate and primary.

And while 10 states are scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday, Georgia could be the most important of them. Yes, Texas has twice as many delegates, but it’s also Rick Perry’s home turf. Depending on how his campaign goes from here, he may well stand to gobble up the lion’s share of Texas’ 155 delegates.

Georgia is next on the Super Tuesday list with 76 delegates, and the race could be very tight among the contenders. Maybe that will mean each candidate prefers to focus on a state he/she can more easily dominate. Or maybe it means Georgia will truly take a turn in the 2012 spotlight, at least for a few days.

So, what do y’all think? Was Georgia wise to wait until March and keep all of our delegates? Or should we have jumped the line to have an earlier, and possibly bigger, say?

– By Kyle Wingfield

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78 comments Add your comment

Hillbilly D

November 15th, 2011
12:49 pm

Just curious, do the Democratic and Republican parties help pay for the cost of primary elections?

Hillbilly D

November 15th, 2011
12:56 pm

Is anybody else having refresh problems with the AJC site today?

Politi Cal

November 15th, 2011
1:14 pm

Oh no, please God, no!

HDB

November 15th, 2011
1:35 pm

Wonder if the GOPers will take the TOUGH questions….like why does the GOP want to disenfranchise minority voters…..and why they ignore minority constituents…..???

DOUBT IT!!

Ayn Rant

November 15th, 2011
1:42 pm

We endure more than a year of dreary politicking to elect a President, usually a mediocre one at that. The Europeans spend less than a month to elect a ruling party including the prime minister, usually with better results.

Can we do better?

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

November 15th, 2011
1:44 pm

“why does the GOP want to disenfranchise minority voters”

They don’t.

“and why they ignore minority constituents???”

They don’t.

Maybe you should ask yourself why minority voters don’t vote for a party that simply wants freedom and the opportunity to equally compete for resources, rather than looking for a handout?

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

November 15th, 2011
1:45 pm

“The Europeans spend less than a month to elect a ruling party including the prime minister, usually with better results.”

yeah, ’cause Greece and Italy are doing so much better than we are with that system . . . :roll:

Hillbilly D

November 15th, 2011
1:50 pm

We endure more than a year of dreary politicking to elect a President, usually a mediocre one at that.

It’s more like 2 years.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)

November 15th, 2011
1:51 pm

The two year campaign at least provides some distraction from the idiocy and failure we’ve been subjected to for the previous three.

Jefferson

November 15th, 2011
1:54 pm

Those who will watch, deserve it.

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
2:10 pm

I don’t think I know enough about primaries. Why can’t Republicans go to the polls and vote for whom they like? This running around about who is first and foremost shouldn’t be the question. Seems like we should vote for the best person to fill the job.

But what do I know? Obviously nothing what with all the “carying-on” about this state and that. Oh well, I suspect we will get a president with a lot of problems, one way or another, either party. Kinda sad ’cause the candidate I like probably doesn’t have a chance. He doesn’t talk good on TV!! Just knows how to run a big enterprise without scandal or flip flopping.

But who cares about that. We got a “good talker’ last time. Yes indeed! I’m ready for one who can keep his mouth shut.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)

November 15th, 2011
2:13 pm

Dusty, let us hope that 2008 mistake will be a lesson to all Americans (and Democrats too).

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
2:15 pm

I don’t know, Lil’ Barry. Some people do not learn!

Hillbilly D

November 15th, 2011
2:26 pm

Some people do not learn!

That’s true and the ones who do learn die off and then the next generation thinks everything starts new with them and all the lessons have to be learned again.

Jimmy62

November 15th, 2011
2:27 pm

Dusty: If only the preliminaries for the last campaign had revealed as much about Obama as this season has revealed of the GOP candidates. Heck, we know more about Perry’s past now than we do Obama’s. Obama is called a genius, so why won’t he release his grades?

To put it another way, the media only bothers vetting the candidates they don’t want to win. They know Obama would never have won had they dug out as much info on Obama as they have the GOP candidates. It’s easy to say there’s nothing bad in his past when you refuse to investigate it.

HDB

November 15th, 2011
2:40 pm

Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!

November 15th, 2011
1:44 pm

“why does the GOP want to disenfranchise minority voters”

They don’t.

Really??? Ask the over 45,000 that were disenfranschised in Florida in 2000, the 15,000 that were done in Ohio in 2004….and those who weren’t allowed to vote in MO, FL, and OH?? Note how Jeb Bush purged the voters’ rolls prior to his brother being selected………

“and why they ignore minority constituents???”

They don’t.

Really??? Whty don’t they campaign in minority neighborhoods? Why are the GOP’s policies anathematic to the minority communities? Why are GOP governors requesting discriminatory legislation be passed that targets only moniroties (SB1070 for one!)??

“Maybe you should ask yourself why minority voters don’t vote for a party that simply wants freedom and the opportunity to equally compete for resources, rather than looking for a handout?”

The majority of us DO….it’s just that the GOP isn’t the one that has presented the opportunities for said community!! Remember: conservatives are AGAINST Affirmative Action!!

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
2:41 pm

HillBilly D

I have to agree somewhat with you. The next generation takes a long time to learn (about the mistakes). My children don’t seem real interested in politics. They do hear their mother “spouting off’ a lot. Since they are now adults, I have to stop preaching and let ‘em go. (They are such a good crowd!)

If they vote to agree with their mother, Republicans will fare well with them. I think they have learned a lot more than we give them credit. With all the communication gadgets we have these days, they SHOULD!!

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

November 15th, 2011
2:45 pm

“Really??? Ask the over 45,000 that were disenfranschised in Florida in 2000″

There weren’t.

“the 15,000 that were done in Ohio in 2004″

Never happened.

and those who weren’t allowed to vote in MO, FL, and OH??”

Liberal claptrap.

“Note how Jeb Bush purged the voters’ rolls prior to his brother being selected”

Ahhhh. . . the “Bush wasn’t elected, (even though he actually was)” argument.

“Really??? Whty don’t they campaign in minority neighborhoods?”

Waste of time?

“Why are the GOP’s policies anathematic to the minority communities?”

They aren’t.

“Why are GOP governors requesting discriminatory legislation be passed that targets only moniroties (SB1070 for one!)??”

They don’t.

UGA 1999

November 15th, 2011
2:46 pm

They really could go ahead and narrow the field down to three.

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
2:57 pm

Jimmy62

We did know a lot about Prez Obama before the election. But we had a big crowd that fell for the “Hope & Change”, and the good talker. They did not care what his past record contained. They knew his place of birth might be questionable. They knew he said himself he tried drugs at Columbia. They knew he only served a short time in the US congress and hardly voted. They knew he was a friend of a radical preacher for 20 years. They knew his work experience was mainly work for Acorn and work as a community organizer. They knew he had ties to a”reformed” American terrorist, the Chicago professor who helped him get into politics. They knew he would not release his scholastic records.

They knew all that and THEY elected him anyway. The Republicans did not do it. The Democrats were the ones who foisted Obama upon us. That is why they are so vocal and vigorous now about every Republican candidate. (Example: Bookman’s blog!) They want us to forget the biggest mistake Democrats ever made, President Obama. No doubt about THAT!!

Road Scholar

November 15th, 2011
2:58 pm

Kyle, a bill was alledgedly introduced today in Georgia that would place “In God We Trust” on all license tags. I thought that the police wanted each tag to bear the name of the county of residence of the owner so that they could identify vehicles from out of their area or that had been reported breaking the law. Why do we need the IGWT bill? I know I’m off topic, but worrying about the date of a primary is wasted ttime.

HDB

November 15th, 2011
3:00 pm

Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!

November 15th, 2011
2:45 pm

Think you’re wrong……http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0126-28.htm

“Really??? Why don’t they campaign in minority neighborhoods?”

Waste of time?

So…it’s a waste of time to approach a constituent, offer a cogent argument, and ask for his/her vote?? Is there any wonder why the GOP ignores a possible constituent?? Is there any wonder why the GOP is viewed as it is???

“Why are the GOP’s policies anathematic to the minority communities?”

They aren’t.

Look again: Cuts in education spending……cuts in job training…..insufficient health care….lack of pursuit of discrmination cases……criminal justice system that targets minorities……if that’s not anathematic, please explain what is!!!!

“Why are GOP governors requesting discriminatory legislation be passed that targets only minorities (SB1070 for one!)??”

They don’t.

So…what does SB1070 do besides targets Hispanics??? Who else is the primary focus…Norwegians/Swedes??? Note – the author of SB1070 in Arizona was DEFEATED!!!

Review your prism……anad look at OTHER angles……..the one you’re viewing from has a great FLAW!!

Road Scholar

November 15th, 2011
3:01 pm

Dusty, bless your heart!

HDB

November 15th, 2011
3:03 pm

Off -topic….but is similar to the current GOP:

Broken toilets keep sailors squirming on USS George H.W. Bush

Looks like any time a Bush is involved, people get screwed somehow…….

Hillbilly D

November 15th, 2011
3:05 pm

Road Scholar

Unless something has changed, you can purchase an “In God We Trust” sticker for your tag, which can be placed where the county sticker goes. This is at a cost of an extra $1, I think. Some of the specialty tags that you can buy, also don’t have the county sticker on them.

carlosgvv

November 15th, 2011
3:08 pm

The State of Georgia is filled with so many Republican voters who want a lighter shade of pale that the debates, unless Cain is already way ahead, don’t matter. Any old Republican will do, except Cain.

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
3:12 pm

Thanks, Tiberius. That ol’ petty propaganda from the Bush era gets really stale. It was not true in the beginning but liberals still repeat it.

I have a little Christmas bear that will repeat a Christmas song if you press its foot. It always sings the SAME song. Kinda reminds me of those lagging Democrats who repeat that stuff.. You don’t even have to press their foot to hear the same song & dance.

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

November 15th, 2011
3:14 pm

“Cuts in education spending”

Why should I pay for teachers in Wyoming when I live in Georgia?

“cuts in job training”

Not a role of government.

“insufficient health care”

Not the role of government.

“lack of pursuit of discrmination cases”

Really? Cite, please.

“criminal justice system that targets minorities”

Stop breaking the law – maybe we won’t “target” you then. ;)

Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!

November 15th, 2011
3:22 pm

“So…it’s a waste of time to approach a constituent, offer a cogent argument, and ask for his/her vote??”

Yeah, when the constituent has their ears and mind closed to any other possibility than what they’ve been told for years.

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
3:23 pm

HDB,

Only a Democrats would concoct a Bush insult from a failing sewerage system on an aircraft carrier. Is sewerage your speciality?

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
3:26 pm

Carlos,

Your bigotry gets a bit tiresome. Cain is quite popular in Georgia. Your head in a hood or something?

HDB

November 15th, 2011
3:39 pm

Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!
November 15th, 2011
3:14 pm

BTW….here’s another link to give you more insight into voter suppression:
http://rolandmartinreports.com/blog/2011/11/voter-suppression-how-the-black-church-can-thwart-efforts-to-suppress-the-african-american-vote-video/

Now…to further this conversation:

“Cuts in education spending”
Why should I pay for teachers in Wyoming when I live in Georgia?

The money circulates throughout the nation; people in California pay for teachers and construction workers in Georgia…….

“cuts in job training”
Not a role of government.

Excuse me…..but to maintain a broad tax base, workers need to be created. Education and job training ARE a function of government……particularly if one supports public education….as the preponderance of the American public does!!

“insufficient health care”
Not the role of government.

Wrong again: Think about what the Preamble to the Constitution states:
“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America. ”

Explain how does the nation provide for the common defense, insure domestic tranquility, promotes the general welfare, et. al., if it DOESN’T insure the ability of its populace to have decent health care?? All of the developed nations have universal health care SAVE one!!

“lack of pursuit of discrmination cases”

Really? Cite, please. OK, done!!
http://www.eeoc.gov/eeoc/statistics/enforcement/charges.cfm

“criminal justice system that targets minorities”
Stop breaking the law – maybe we won’t “target” you then.

Give me a break!! We know how the system is set up!! Let a Caucasian and minority get convicted of the same crime….who gets MORE time!!!!

HDB

November 15th, 2011
3:41 pm

Dusty
November 15th, 2011
3:23 pm

I’n ex-Navy….can’t help it that my compatriots are getting BUSHwhacked at sea!!

HDB

November 15th, 2011
3:47 pm

Tiberius – Your lightning rod of hate!

November 15th, 2011
3:22 pm

“So…it’s a waste of time to approach a constituent, offer a cogent argument, and ask for his/her vote??”

Yeah, when the constituent has their ears and mind closed to any other possibility than what they’ve been told for years.”

What about what has been SEEN…or EXPERIENCED?? Does THAT count!! I could’ve voted for Colin Powell for President….or Lowell Weicker….

Too many people fail to remember that the GOP was FOUNDED by a coalition of black and white abolitionists….but since 1964, has been overtaken by the conservaative wing….which in some cases….has a racist tint to it!!

Note the policies of the GOP…..and the ignorance that persists from the rank-and-file…like this one here!!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/28/sally-kern-affirmative-action_n_854936.html?ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=false

Don't Tread

November 15th, 2011
3:53 pm

“Stop breaking the law – maybe we won’t “target” you then”

Reminds me of a Ron White joke…”they were stopping every vehicle that drove down the sidewalk, which is profiling…and profiling is wrong!”

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
3:59 pm

HDB,

My husband is ex-Navy. Served on an aircraft carrier too. Has never felt the need to connect a sewerage problem with a former president. That might change after the current president leaves.

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
4:04 pm

HDB,

I can’t help but notice you are looking for the “twinge” in every situation.

That day is gone so say “goodbye”.

Nobody “promised us a rose garden”. Not any of us. Stand up and smell sweet anyway. We all have to do it.

HDB

November 15th, 2011
4:05 pm

Dusty…..Presidents have been connected with sewage since the dawn of the nation!! Remember: the last act in the circus is the clean-up crew….’cause they have to shovel all the $H!T that the elephants left behind!!

HDB

November 15th, 2011
4:06 pm

Dusty
November 15th, 2011
4:04 pm

EVERYONE notices the “twinge”……..EVERYONE comments on it!! Different views of the same paradigm!!

Jefferson

November 15th, 2011
4:14 pm

Cain was just “horsing” around with those women…so was Newt, Perry can’t remember all the times he horsed around. Ron Paul wishes he still wanted to horse around. What’s left ?

MarkV

November 15th, 2011
4:23 pm

According to Tiberius, Greece + Italy = Europe. Typical.

I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

November 15th, 2011
4:40 pm

Huntsman, Santorum and Paul will be toast by then, so give Cain another 26 delegates.

Herminator!

carlosgvv

November 15th, 2011
4:55 pm

Dusty – 3:26

I am not the one looking for a lighter shade of pale. You and your crazed Tea Party pals are the ones with the sheets in the closet. He is only popular in GA because you percieve him as the lesser of the two black evils.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

November 15th, 2011
5:07 pm

You’ll have to excuse Dusty, carlosgvv. She’s probably one of those “typical white people” Obozo speaks of. Or perhaps she’s Indian, which of course means she must work in a convenience store as Joe Biden believes.

Where does your hatred spring from?

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
5:17 pm

HDB,

Your life may be a circus but mine isn’t. Therefore I don’t do cleanup jobs for anybody. There is no twinge unless you are looking for it. You just take things like they come to all human beings, and don’t act like you were picked on in particular.

Don’t you realize that EVERYBODY’s got problems? Some people handle them better than others. It is known as taking responsibility.

So there. I’m kinda busy. Ever make eggplant casserole? Me neither. But I just threw something together. Gonna be good! (I hope.) I’m trying not to burn the poor thing. If i’m not here tomorrow you will know what happens with mystery eggplant casseroles.

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
5:37 pm

Carlos,

You are so predictable if not repetitious. MY”tea party pals”? Huh? don’t know anyone in the Tea Party. I like their conservative ideas.

Looking for someone “pale”? Nawww… I thought this election was for the best person to run the USA. I am looking for THAT.

“Sheets”? Only on the beds here and in the linen closet. Sounds like you could wash a bit of dirt out of that mind of yours.

Cain is sounding good. Responsible business man, well educated, stable family, strong in his faith, and handles himself well in the public arena. Republicans have some fine choices.

Eat your heart out, poor baby!! You’d better be looking at those Repubs ’cause you are going to have one of ‘em soon as PRESIDENT.

MarkV

November 15th, 2011
5:40 pm

“Cain is sounding good. Responsible business man, well educated, stable family, strong in his faith, and handles himself well in the public arena.”

He certainly has proved that when asked about Libya.

Dusty

November 15th, 2011
5:50 pm

Mark V

Is Cain running for the presidency of Libya? I don’t think so. Is Obama running for the presidency of Libya? He must be as he was calling the shots in the “revolution”.

OH I forgot. We are only talking about Republicans here. The misdeeds and mysterious moments of the Democratic delivered president are not to be mentioned. “Cuse me…

Ross Perot

November 15th, 2011
5:52 pm

HDB, I think this is what you are after, but unfortunately Oboze decided to bomb it.

A government advertisement appearing in an international publication in 1977 asserted that the Libyan social security legislation of 1973 ranked among the most comprehensive in the world and that it protected all citizens from many hazards associated with employment. The social security program instituted in 1957 had already provided protection superior to that available in many or most developing countries, and in the 1980s the welfare available to Libyans included much more than was provided under the social security law: work injury and sickness compensation and disability, retirement, and survivors’ pensions. Workers employed by foreign firms were entitled to the same social security benefits as workers employed by Libyan citizens.

Subsidized food, inexpensive housing, free medical care and education, and profit-sharing were among the benefits that eased the lives of all citizens. The government protected the employed in their jobs and subsidized the underemployed and unemployed. In addition, there were nurseries to care for the children of working mothers, orphanages for homeless children, and homes for the aged. The welfare programs had reached even the oasis towns of the desert, where they reportedly were received with considerable satisfaction. The giving of alms to the poor remained one of the pillars of the Islamic faith, but the extent of public welfare was such that there was increasingly less place for private welfare. Nonetheless, the traditional Arab sense of family responsibility remained strong, and provision for needy relatives was still a common practice.

MarkV

November 15th, 2011
5:55 pm

Dusty @5:50 pm: :Is Cain running for the presidency of Libya? I don’t think so. Is Obama running for the presidency of Libya? He must be as he was calling the shots in the “revolution”.”

I am sorry but what you have written does not show a great deal of intelligence. As a matter of fact, it makes zero sense. You mean a candidate for the President of the USA should be able to answer foreign policy question only if he/she were a candidate for the presidency of the country in question? That is what your question suggests.