Newt rising, Cain stalling as bumpy GOP ride takes latest turn
OK, everyone who, back in May, had Herman Cain clinging to a lead in the polls and Newt Gingrich surging into a three-man GOP primary race in mid-November, raise your hands.
Looking … looking … looking … yeah, that’s what I thought. Join the club.
So far, the most reliable quality to the contest to become the Republican opponent for President Barack Obama next year has been its unpredictability.
Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Mitch Daniels did not run. Rick Santorum, last seen losing his bid for re-election to the Senate, and Jon Huntsman, who worked for Obama before seeking to replace him, did.
Yet both of them, along with Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer, made it onto Georgia’s presidential primary ballot — while Tim Pawlenty, at one point endorsed by former Gov. Sonny Perdue, did not.
To say it’s been a volatile race is to say Atlanta gets warm in the summertime.
Since Cain entered it May 21, 10 days after Gingrich officially declared, six different candidates have ranked second in the Real Clear Politics average of major national polls (this and the figures that follow do not include data for Pawlenty, who dropped out Aug. 14).
Guess who’s spent the most time in second, with 63 days: Mitt Romney, the supposedly inevitable GOP nominee. Of course, Romney has also spent more days since then in first place, 112, than the other two front-runners, Cain and Rick Perry, combined.
On the other hand, both Cain and Perry have higher peaks in that average of the polls than does Romney, who still hasn’t touched 26 percent.
On the other-other hand, Romney’s the only one of the six contenders not to spend any of that time in fifth place or lower on average. Second is the lowest he’s fallen.
So far. In this race, you can’t forget to say, “so far.”
But the volatility does not yet signal that the Republicans are handing the race to Obama.
It’s clear that GOP voters feel they have a real chance to unseat the president. But their lack of decisiveness about Romney — so far — reflects both nervousness and confidence.
Nervousness, because Romney is the “safe” choice as far as persuading independent voters to turn against the president they helped elect in 2008. They’re keeping him near the top.
Confidence, because they also think there’s reason to believe even a more — how to put it? — ideologically consistent candidate could beat the rigidly liberal Obama. A less confident GOP would have thrown itself into Romney’s arms by now.
It still might do so. In the meantime, there’s a chance one of the candidates with Georgia connections could land in the top or second slot on the Republican ticket in 2012.
Gingrich is running a campaign described by national pundits as “substantive,” “wonkish” and “unconventional.” That last adjective also applies to Cain’s bid, which rose above most people’s expectations thanks to his status as a political outsider and, of course, his popular 9-9-9 plan to replace the federal tax code.
Gingrich must overcome his well-known baggage. Cain must squash past allegations of sexual harassment and, more important, show he has answers besides 9-9-9: In Wednesday’s debate, he went to that well a few times too many.
Gingrich is rising even though everyone has long known about his problems. Cain is stalling because his are still fresh. But in this race, there’s no reason to dismiss either of their candidacies.
So far.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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240 comments Add your comment
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 13th, 2011
6:24 pm
It’s not our role to try to help or hurt any candidate. We take seriously the job of helping voters make their own decisions. We’ll continue to look for compelling stories about Herman Cain, so you can decide for yourself if he deserves your vote. -Urinal
My Lord, does it get any more ridiculous?
MarkV
November 13th, 2011
6:31 pm
aloysius @6:23 pm
I would agree that with the exception of John Huntsman, those on the stage yesterday did not show much intelligence.
GOP Crazies
November 13th, 2011
7:06 pm
@@@ November 13th, 2011 6:00 pm -
I SAID – This blog brings out the………low lifes, the low class, the illiterate and the mentally challenged.
YOU SAID – GOP Crazies must be one of Hah-vahd’s elusive exclusives. schnirt
@@@ YOU JUST MADE MY POINT. THANK YOU!!!!!!!!
GOP Crazies
November 13th, 2011
7:11 pm
@@@ November 13th, 2011 6:00 pm –
WHAT I ACTUALLY SAID WAS – This blog brings out the GOP crazies, rednecks, racists, skinheads, kkk, low lifes, the low class, the illiterate and the mentally challenged.
WHICH ONE ARE YOU?
Ol' Timer
November 13th, 2011
7:41 pm
I don’t see how the word “confident” can be appropriately used when the top three candidates are composed of a serial womanizer, an accused sexual harrasser and a flip-flopper who can’t decide between French and Bleu Cheese.
The spin used in this piece is tornadic!
JOD
November 13th, 2011
7:42 pm
Anybody but Romney is my plan… just saying.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
7:57 pm
Why do I get the feeling that Democrats have sent their propaganda pups to howl and snarl on Kyle’s blog?
Look, fellows, if you were not so obvious, your efforts might work better.
Right now, you look like the back row blokes who couldn’t write a decent line even though you are paid for it.
Get on back to your kennel. You are making a mess here that reminds us of what we want to get rid of quickly. Soon. Right away.
Toe Maine
November 13th, 2011
8:09 pm
Was Newt castrated at 12? Maybe that’s what kept his voice squeaky. Gratifying to know he believes that marriage is between 1 man and 3 women. Now he wants war with Iran, just like any Dick Cheney chickenhawk.
GOP Crazies
November 13th, 2011
8:15 pm
@Dusty November 13th, 2011 7:57 pm
The problem is that when the Democrats say something on this blog that the Republicans/Tea Party do not agree with the Republicans/Tea Party start to berate them instead of saying something of substance.
For Example these bloggers ( I Report (You Whine), Lil Barry Bailout, Ross Perot and others) find it amusing to berate others on this blog. They have nothing of substance to contribute but racism and hatred.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
8:17 pm
Toe Main,
You make people sick. I gather you are a Democrat or worse.
lester maddox
November 13th, 2011
8:24 pm
Holy Crap, I can’t believe ya’ll are having a discussion on Newt being fit to be our Pres. We must really be in a world of sh*t.
...
November 13th, 2011
8:25 pm
The joke is that Republicans keep cycling through this pack of losers hoping one of them will be smart enough not to make a complete fool of themselves on the national stage. PATHETIC.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
8:26 pm
GOP Crazies
You need to clean up your own act before attacking other bloggers. Like your ID here.
Substance is not calling all right wing politicians every name in the book. Posting insults seems to be all you have. You Dems have done it through the Bush years and you haven’t stopped yet.
Get rid of your own bad habits. That would be a start.
Qvickie
November 13th, 2011
8:27 pm
I agree with GOP Crazies. All these bigots bloggers do is spread hate and stupidity. Senseless waste of time to get a intelligent answer.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
8:33 pm
Yes Lester Maddox,
You Dems really gave us some upright presidents, didn’t you? The tabloids haven’t stopped writing about Clinton yet.
———————-
Dear 3 x …
Yep, Republicans are picking the choice candidate.
Meanwhile Obama uses his presidential perks (paid by taxpayers) to campaign across the country. Now that’s pathetic!
Nope.
November 13th, 2011
8:34 pm
Sorry Dusty… But this is America and whether you like ti or not, others are allowed to express their opinions even if they disagree with you. So my question is… if you love this country sooooo much, why do you hate our freedoms and attack those expressing their opinion? Sounds to me like you would feel more at home living under an authoritarian regime.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
8:37 pm
Right, Quickie
Intelligent questions should get intelligent answers.
The problem here is, liberals give conservatives nothing intelligent to answer.
Haven’t you noticed?
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
8:40 pm
Nope,
Seems you don’t like MY OPINION.
Excuse me. I thought I had freedom of speech just like you.
Nope.
November 13th, 2011
8:41 pm
Is this what you do Dusty? You bash people who have different political leanings than you? You must be one miserable human being. Just sitting on your computer seething with hatred towards liberals because they do not think just like you… what sort of sane person thinks like this Dusty? Seriously… I want to know what makes you tick… where the hatred comes from… why you are so keen on attacking others while you hide safely behind your onscreen anonymity.
lester maddox
November 13th, 2011
8:49 pm
Dusty, I only hope you and Newt are not the best you conservatives have to offer.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
8:56 pm
Nope, dear heart,
Your imagination runs wild. I simply want bloggers to drop the gutter language, the insults and the total lack of civility. If it hits your side of the political fence, then try to do better.
Your accuracy is also at fault. If you think I’ve been here much of the day, you are hallucinating. I hope that is not coming from the usual use of drugs and alcohol.
Relax, honey. Yours and my anonymity are safe. I have no desire to make your acquaintance.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
8:59 pm
lester mattox
Put down your bat. I am not running for office. Gingrich can take care of himself quite well.
Please pass me a piece of fried chicken while you’re at it. Thank you.
Nope.
November 13th, 2011
9:03 pm
Oh please Dusty, your condescension is palpable and your hatred for anyone who does not align themselves with your narrow political philosophy is beyond obvious.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
9:12 pm
Poor nope,
Still feeling all pious and picked on. Still stuck on hatred, huh? Naww, I got over that a long time ago. I realized that liberals hearts were in the right place but they didn’t have the mind to go with it.
If they did, they would not enjoy huge debt, high taxes and big lies. But other than that, they do like to give other people’s money to those without it.
I just don’t think that is practical. In fact, lotsa people have noticed that we are in debt.. Haven’t you heard?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
9:34 pm
Welcome to the Occupation: Germany has done well during this crisis — vastly better than the US
———————
Germans are, on average, smarter than Americans. And they don’t mind working for a living. The US is saddled with a huge parasite class that games the system to avoid having to take a job, and produces millions of illegitimate future drug dealers and gang bangers, while their brood mares get checks from the government.
Kyle
November 13th, 2011
9:53 pm
If Newt is the nominee he will be fine. All it will take is some debates with this president that all the anti-Americans love and he will show him up and the independents that are not sure will see. Most of them already see their businesses and investments going down the tubes and are not lining up behind him as it is. The media is never going to let you think that any GOP stands a chance. I remember in the Governors race here they were saying at best it would be a run off between Deal and Roy Barnes and Deal beat that guy by 55 to 45.
DawgDad
November 13th, 2011
10:30 pm
“Republicans cannot excuse the immoral lapses of people like Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain ”
WHAT “immoral laspses” of “people like . . . Herman Cain”? When there is some evidence, THEN you have room to speak. Until then, wise you mind the Golden Rule. It is within your LEGAL right to cast these dispersions on a public figure, but in doing so you are speaking more about yourself than others.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
10:33 pm
Obozo, on international companies wanting to establish a presence in the U.S.: “We’ve been a little bit lazy over the last couple of decades. We’ve kind of taken for granted — ‘Well, people would want to come here’ — and we aren’t out there hungry, selling America and trying to attract new businesses into America.”
———————————
Keep talking, moron.
Everyone knows it’s our high taxes, stifling regulations, and (of late) your business-bashing and criminalization of profit.
DawgDad
November 13th, 2011
10:37 pm
“Germans are, on average, smarter than Americans.” You might want to ponder just what that line of thinking has produced, historically speaking.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
10:38 pm
Saw a very apt description of Obozo on another blog: “Parasite herder”.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
10:39 pm
Don’t fear facts, DawgDad.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
10:42 pm
Average IQ by country:
Germany: 102
U.S.: 98
http://sq.4mg.com/NationIQ.htm
Welcome to the Occupation
November 13th, 2011
11:50 pm
Little Barry Bailout: “Everyone knows it’s our high taxes, stifling regulations, and (of late) your business-bashing and criminalization of profit.”
Taxes are already terribly low. I wouldn’t mind lowering them. If we attack the very concept of concentrated wealth and redistribute it.
Stifling regulations? Really? Like the ones that obviously were so stifling they allowed one of our rapacious mega-corporations to blow a giant hole in the Gulf of Mexico? Regs are already phenomenally low. Corporate sponsored lobbyists practically write them themselves. I’d be fine with doing away with most of them — if we abolish the rapacious profit system first.
Business bashing? Who needs business bashing when business does its own bashing, coming within a hair of burning down the world economy?
Free enterprise was buried in a shallow grave in ‘08 for good when its errand boy Paulson was on his knees practically pi$$ing himself as he begged members of Congress to save him from the disaster his banker buddies had wrought. That was the death knell for your beloved free enterprise as religion.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
November 14th, 2011
6:37 am
I’ve seen the light, WTTO. Businesses aren’t locating in the US, and existing businesses are leaving, because they’re in search of higher taxes, more regulation, and the privilege of putting their capital at risk only to have a big-eared fascist nationalize it. How did I miss that?
@@
November 14th, 2011
7:27 am
GOP:
WHAT I ACTUALLY SAID WAS – This blog brings out the GOP crazies, rednecks, racists, skinheads, kkk, low lifes, the low class, the illiterate and the mentally challenged.
WHICH ONE ARE YOU?
It’s YOUR list…feel free to pick one. Just know that none “will stick”.
Clay Willis
November 14th, 2011
9:18 am
Wingfield joins with the rest of the MSM including the leftist rag Politico in trying to eliminate Herman Cain from the race. It’s mostly because of his plan to eliminate the Marxist income tax system that brings the resistance from the Democrats and establishment Republicans (they both game the present system to benefit their friends and donors) but how ridiculous can they get? Look at these headlines appearing on the same “home page” at the leftist rag:
Battleground (GOP): Cain 27, Romney 25, Gingrich 14, Perry 14, Paul 5
Politico: Cain’s Support Plummets
Welcome to the Occupation
November 14th, 2011
9:57 am
Little Barry Bailout: “usinesses aren’t locating in the US, and existing businesses are leaving, because they’re in search of higher taxes, more regulation, and the privilege of putting their capital at risk only to have a big-eared fascist nationalize it”
Because lord knows he’s been nationalizing industries right and left. What with Wall St facing its worst crisis in nearly a century, he not only props it up, he’s the enabler while banks return to soaring profitability under his Treasury department. Health care? His health care plan — a product of the right wing Heritage Foundation — sets up a veritable gravy train for the health insurance execs as far into the future as they eye can see? Guaranteed customer base for the next century, anyone? Nice work if you can get it. Yeah, he’s a nationalizer all right.
UGA 1999
November 14th, 2011
10:13 am
Newt has been on nearly every news agency selling his pitch. Good for him, much of what he says makes ALOT of sense.
Quagmire
November 15th, 2011
3:30 pm
“Where the White Women At?”……………Candidate Cain, what do you think about the traffic on 285? Cain’s response “Um, Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm……………”I did not touch those White Women, except for 2 of them”……………….Let’s take back the White House.
Republicans……………………………..personal attacks on Obama. He looks SUPER Solid on Foreign Relations, economy is improving(slow but improving). He can speak English, Intelligent, Educated, and can Debate. I re-call, this country got in troulbe on bush’s watch.
What Herman Cain’s 2012 run has already accomplished | Kyle Wingfield
November 18th, 2011
6:02 pm
[...] If this GOP presidential campaign has taught us anything, it’s not to write any candidate’s political obituary before its time. (Hello, Newt Gingrich.) [...]