Newt rising, Cain stalling as bumpy GOP ride takes latest turn
OK, everyone who, back in May, had Herman Cain clinging to a lead in the polls and Newt Gingrich surging into a three-man GOP primary race in mid-November, raise your hands.
Looking … looking … looking … yeah, that’s what I thought. Join the club.
So far, the most reliable quality to the contest to become the Republican opponent for President Barack Obama next year has been its unpredictability.
Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Mitch Daniels did not run. Rick Santorum, last seen losing his bid for re-election to the Senate, and Jon Huntsman, who worked for Obama before seeking to replace him, did.
Yet both of them, along with Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer, made it onto Georgia’s presidential primary ballot — while Tim Pawlenty, at one point endorsed by former Gov. Sonny Perdue, did not.
To say it’s been a volatile race is to say Atlanta gets warm in the summertime.
Since Cain entered it May 21, 10 days after Gingrich officially declared, six different candidates have ranked second in the Real Clear Politics average of major national polls (this and the figures that follow do not include data for Pawlenty, who dropped out Aug. 14).
Guess who’s spent the most time in second, with 63 days: Mitt Romney, the supposedly inevitable GOP nominee. Of course, Romney has also spent more days since then in first place, 112, than the other two front-runners, Cain and Rick Perry, combined.
On the other hand, both Cain and Perry have higher peaks in that average of the polls than does Romney, who still hasn’t touched 26 percent.
On the other-other hand, Romney’s the only one of the six contenders not to spend any of that time in fifth place or lower on average. Second is the lowest he’s fallen.
So far. In this race, you can’t forget to say, “so far.”
But the volatility does not yet signal that the Republicans are handing the race to Obama.
It’s clear that GOP voters feel they have a real chance to unseat the president. But their lack of decisiveness about Romney — so far — reflects both nervousness and confidence.
Nervousness, because Romney is the “safe” choice as far as persuading independent voters to turn against the president they helped elect in 2008. They’re keeping him near the top.
Confidence, because they also think there’s reason to believe even a more — how to put it? — ideologically consistent candidate could beat the rigidly liberal Obama. A less confident GOP would have thrown itself into Romney’s arms by now.
It still might do so. In the meantime, there’s a chance one of the candidates with Georgia connections could land in the top or second slot on the Republican ticket in 2012.
Gingrich is running a campaign described by national pundits as “substantive,” “wonkish” and “unconventional.” That last adjective also applies to Cain’s bid, which rose above most people’s expectations thanks to his status as a political outsider and, of course, his popular 9-9-9 plan to replace the federal tax code.
Gingrich must overcome his well-known baggage. Cain must squash past allegations of sexual harassment and, more important, show he has answers besides 9-9-9: In Wednesday’s debate, he went to that well a few times too many.
Gingrich is rising even though everyone has long known about his problems. Cain is stalling because his are still fresh. But in this race, there’s no reason to dismiss either of their candidacies.
So far.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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240 comments Add your comment
Bullet County
November 12th, 2011
9:46 pm
Tommy Maddox (What’s your source?) In a statement released through the King Center, Martin Luther King III said, “It is disingenuous to imply that my father was a Republican. He never endorsed any presidential candidate, and there is certainly no evidence that he ever even voted for a Republican.”
mike
November 13th, 2011
6:52 am
Two guys who abuse women. What great choices to have before the people. Maybe you guys can have those goobers from Penn State join your party. It seems the repubs find this type of behavior acceptable.
jconservative
November 13th, 2011
8:17 am
For what it’s worth:
“WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Mitt Romney has a growing lead in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, and almost half of the party’s voters expect him to be the nominee, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Twenty-eight percent of Republicans backed the former Massachusetts governor, giving him a lead of 8 percentage points over his nearest challenger Herman Cain in the poll, taken November 10-11.
Romney was 5 percentage points ahead in a survey November 7-8.
Whether or not they support him, almost half of the Republicans surveyed expect Romney to become the nominee to oppose President Barack Obama, a Democrat, in the November 2012 election.”
Ross Perot
November 13th, 2011
8:52 am
Obama is a complete foreign policy failure. He took out Libya’s leader to hand it over to extremist muslims. The Libyans had it pretty good over there until teleprompter sock puppet ruined it for them, He is a spineless weasel.
Gator Joe
November 13th, 2011
9:34 am
Kyle,
The only Republican candidate that actually appears presidential and capable is Huntsman, and he isn’t extreme enough and too intelligent for Right’s brainwashed, ignorant masses.
As for your bigoted, racist, narrow-minded followers, are you so delusional as to think if President Obama is defeated in 2012, that Democrats in the Senate wouldn’t use the same tactics Republicans have used against the President Obama?
If the President is defeated, the Democrats will be the only defense against the defacto, Koch brothers’-purchased, oligarchy.
MarkV
November 13th, 2011
9:41 am
Ross Perot @8:52 am
Your style of joking is rather sick.
clem
November 13th, 2011
10:03 am
perot, you ought to know spineless…..why don’t you join the service instead of running your mouth……that giant sucking sound is you
GOP R THE NEW NEO-NAZI'S-SKINHEAD'S WITH HAIR
November 13th, 2011
10:04 am
GEORGIA GOP SENDING JOBS OVERSEAS WITH GEORGIA TAX DOLLARS!
THIS IS WHAT YOU RACIST REDNECKS GET
Mark Shean
November 13th, 2011
10:16 am
Of all the contenders in this GOP race, Newt is the only one who would decisivly mop the floor with Obama in a debate, any time any where, without breaking a sweat.
People dont care about his so-called baggage, (no more than they did with Clinton) they care about saving this economy from a community organizer and total Europe style ruin.
Newt has more expertise and job experiance in his little finger than Obama and all his Chicago cronies have collectivly in their entire bodies.
Personally I would like to see Newt as President and Cain as VP, this is what is now required to end Obama’s liberal experiment into Scocialism.
MarkV
November 13th, 2011
10:21 am
Mark Shean @10:16 am: “Of all the contenders in this GOP race, Newt is the only one who would decisivly mop the floor with Obama in a debate, any time any where, without breaking a sweat.”
Your joking also is sick.
MarkV
November 13th, 2011
10:25 am
One of the more remarkable moments in yesterday’s debate was when Mitt Romney said that under Obama the Iranians would have the nuclear weapon, while if he were elected President they would not. It would be easy just to say that Romney was an idiot, but since he is not, it is just remarkable that a candidate can say things like that without being laughed out of the stage.
MarkV
November 13th, 2011
10:49 am
Another remarkable moment was Gingrich’s statement that there were smart ways and dumb ways to deal with Iran, and Obama’s administration skipped all the smart ones. Here is a supposedly smart and intelligent man making a comment, which is on the level of idiocy of some of the comments on this blog.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
10:53 am
The only way Obozo loses is if the election is held in November 2012.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
10:56 am
MarkV: Your style of joking is rather sick.
———
I seem to recall most Democrats claiming Iraqis had it pretty good under Saddam, hypocrite.
What
November 13th, 2011
11:04 am
I believe the Cain campaign set up this whole sex harassment scandal and seems to have worked for them.
larry.333
November 13th, 2011
11:15 am
Newt , will NOT DEPORT ILLEGAL ALIENS, OUT BACK HOME !!
OneFreeMan
November 13th, 2011
11:21 am
Vote Cain. Herman Cain gives the Republicans their best chance against Obama. I am voting for Herman Cain.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
11:43 am
Vote Republican. Republican gives the U.S. their best chance against Obozo. I am voting for Republican.
Comrade MarxistV
November 13th, 2011
11:52 am
I’m not a sick hypocrite. I’m a dumba$$ marxist donkey too stupid to know better because my elevator has never reach the top floors. Surely a person of your caliber and intellect can understand these things lil barry bailout. Now cease and diciest from your abusive cruelties you’ve inflicted upon me before some good party comrade calls PETA, the humane society or the ACLU on you.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
11:53 am
Well, the winner is out there waiting.
Vote for PERRY. He can govern! He has no scandals, no flipflops. He has lifted Texas above other states in economics and income. He is educated but not an elitest. He supports the military having served in it. He is a man of strong character and faith. He understands the middle class because he is one with them. Another Harry Truman! Just what we need.
Out with Chicago! In with Texas! Them boots for winning were made in the USA!! Texas, honey!
getalife
November 13th, 2011
11:59 am
My advice to our President.
1. Don’t cheat on your wife in your second term.
2. Fix the 99 % agenda and our democracy.
3. Give us peace and prosperity.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
12:01 pm
Still waiting to find out what that “99% agenda” is, and what the legislative proposals are to “fix” it.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
12:02 pm
“Fix the 99% agenda”
——————-
Stupid can’t be fixed.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
12:04 pm
Here’s another thought on Gov.Perry.. The world will see that the USA has gotten tired of the elitist, the scandal ridden, the inexperienced, the hopeless and the blameless. They will see that the USA has recovered from chance taking and elected a man of integrity and strength.
We need to elect Perry for ourselves and for the respect of the world. We don’t have it now.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
12:07 pm
getalife,
You need to vote for Perry.
He’s a winner.
Time to remove the loser.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
12:10 pm
Dusty, hate to break it to ya, but “the world” loves us best when we have a weenie, effete, socialist punk in the White House. The world prefers us to be weak, both economically and militarily. The “fundamentally transformational” interests of Obozo are perfectly aligned with the interests of “the world”.
Late capitalist sewer
November 13th, 2011
12:17 pm
Still waiting to find out what that “99% agenda” is, and what the legislative proposals are to “fix” it.
A gut kick to capitalism and the parasitic financial class that perpetuates it.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
12:21 pm
I don’t know, Lil Barry,
The Italians have kicked out scandal ridden Belasconi. The Greeks are changing slowly from a broken handout state. The UK is moving to more austerity. Germany can manage its finances.
I think they would like to see a more stable USA. I know I certainly would. Vote for Republican Richard Perry, a man to make America proud and profitable..
Late capitalist sewer
November 13th, 2011
12:24 pm
“Fix the 99% agenda. / Stupid can’t be fixed.”
Your side regularly can’t put two coherent sentences together on a debate stage, wants to abolish government agencies yet can’t remember which ones, gets their nuclear powers mixed up, thinks a blank check to Israeli is compatible with Palestinian “right of return”, gets muddle-headed over whether keeping the government out of deciding whether a woman gets an abortion is compatible with being “pro-life”, and on and on ad infinitum …
.. and you’re throwing around the charge of “stupidity”?
Brainout strikes again.
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
12:34 pm
Late Capitalist Sewer,
If that’s the best ID you can produce, you need to flush yourself away.
Nobody listens to a “sewer”.
Airspray and reppelent needed here.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
12:44 pm
Still waiting to find out what that “99% agenda” is, and what the legislative proposals are to “fix” it.
————-
Late capitalist sewer: A gut kick to capitalism and the parasitic financial class that perpetuates it.
————-
I guess we’ll have to keep waiting. Haven’t heard any legislative proposals to “fix” the parasite OWSer agenda.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 13th, 2011
12:47 pm
Dusty: The Italians have kicked out scandal ridden Belasconi. The Greeks are changing slowly from a broken handout state. The UK is moving to more austerity.
——————-
True, but those socialist welfare states had to fail before they had enough sense to reform. Idiot Obozo is determined to put us on the same path, but it might take us a few years to get to the same sad state as Greece/Italy. Make no mistake, we’ll get there if we stay on the Idiot Obozo path.
And you can count on me to vote for Perry if he’s the nominee!
Welcome to the Occupation
November 13th, 2011
1:32 pm
True, but those socialist welfare states had to fail before they had enough sense to reform
Germany has done well during this crisis — vastly better than the US — not despite its welfare state attributes, but precisely because of them (greater labor co-determination, restrictions on worker layoffs).
clem
November 13th, 2011
1:56 pm
soneone needs to dust off their brain
Dusty
November 13th, 2011
2:12 pm
clem is dim
Rubes never get it
November 13th, 2011
2:20 pm
LOL, Perry has Texas sized cow patties for brains. I have a lot of relatives of live in Texas and HATE Perry, who is all Hat in their opinion.
Perry is as burnt up at Texas Toast. Stick a fork in him.
@@
November 13th, 2011
2:36 pm
It was bound to happen…it’s that THUD sound you hear when a shoe drops. Maybe a PLUNK, when a stone’s thrown into a pond?
Ripples from Europe starting to hit US shores
Debt crisis starts to manifest itself as fewer orders from America’s biggest trade partner
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 13th, 2011
2:46 pm
Only the dummycrats would call the Christmas Holiday temporary hiring a “recovery.”
larry.333
November 13th, 2011
2:51 pm
osted at 10:29 AM ET, 11/13/2011
Court: School can ban American flag shirts on Cinco de Mayo
By Valerie Strauss
A federal court judge ruled that officials at a California high school had a legal right to send home students wearing shirts showing the American flag on Cinco de Mayo because there was a reasonable fear that the images could lead to violence.
Chief U.S. District Judge James Ware of San Francisco ruled last week that it was not a violation of the freedom of speech for students at Live Oak High School in Morgan Hill to be ordered to turn their shirts with the American flag inside out or go home on May 5, 2010, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.Two students were sent home.
Ware cited past clashes between Mexican-American and Anglo students over clothing on the holiday, which is a celebration of Mexican heritage and in Mexico commemorates a Mexican army victory over the French in 1862. (It is not Mexican Independence Day.)
Students wearing the shirts had sued the Morgan Hill Unified School District on the grounds that their right to free expression had been violated as well as on discrimination because students wearing Mexican flag colors were not censored. Ware rejected both issues………………
Alabama Communist
November 13th, 2011
2:53 pm
More Breaking News On Newt’s Raise To Power Within The Retard Party.. The Cain Campaign was hit with another sexual scandle today when another women reveal that Herman had hit up on her while she was in the Capital Parking Lot giving the Former Speaker of House a Wind Job in a Used 1955 Topless Chev. She said that she looked up and there was Herman with a big smile on his face and he demanded seconds while muttering ” It nice to be the King” The women was reveal to be Newt’s 3 rd wife who claim she and Newt had nothing to gain in making this charge..
@@
November 13th, 2011
3:00 pm
Layway may cost more than using credit cards
Senator says if stores aren’t more up front about process, he will go to the FTC
Seriously!!??!!
Schumer said most states limit credit card interest at 16 to 35 percent, but layaway plans can end up costing more in borrowing costs for consumers who often have a lot of credit card debt.
“These layaway programs are nothing more than hideaways for sky-high interest rates that consumers would never tolerate with a credit card,” Schumer said. “The holiday season is supposed to be about giving and not taking, but these layaway programs are taking advantage of people and charging them outrageous interest rates, under the guise of making it easier and more affordable to shop.”
If they don’t have the cash, maybe they shouldn’t buy. It wouldn’t be the end of the world. Perhaps a less expensive gift?
Middle America
November 13th, 2011
3:22 pm
Why would a talk show host that makes millions a year paid by billionaires try to sell us on a tax plan that raises taxes on middle income. Because we will believe anything they say.
Uncle Newt (unexpectedly looking good)
November 13th, 2011
3:46 pm
“He seems to now have adopted a kind of a persona that is working for him. He’s Uncle Newt. He’s complimentary of his fellow candidates; he dumps all over the president, which the Republican audiences love; he’s got substantive things to say on nearly everything, as he always has. And so, in this format, he’s found a way to look good.”
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/brit-hume-gingrichs-debate-performances-uncle-newt-persona-helping-him-in-polls/
Tracy
November 13th, 2011
4:46 pm
Romney is the only candidate who can beat Obama. If he gets the nod, he’s the next President. If any other person in the race gets the nod, it’s 4 more years of Obama. I think the intelligent voters know this which is why Romney has stayed a steady 2nd the entire time. People test out the “flavor of the week” in other candidates, Perry, Cain…etc, but quickly conclude..this guy will lose to Obama. Romney or Obama, there’s your two choices for the next President.
AJ
November 13th, 2011
4:58 pm
This field is pathetic where are the moderate republicans? As an Independent this field underwhelms!
roughrider
November 13th, 2011
5:30 pm
How could an immoral Newt be rising in the GOP, the party of morals?
GOP Crazies
November 13th, 2011
5:36 pm
To all of my Democrats why do we waste our time responding on Kyle Wingfield’s blog?
This blog brings out the GOP crazies, rednecks, racists, skinheads, kkk, low lifes, the low class, the illiterate and the mentally challenged.
Mr. Wingfield’s blog is a Political commentary from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s 30-something “conservative”.
EVIL ISN’T WHAT IT USE TO BE!!!!
BPJ
November 13th, 2011
5:40 pm
Yes, here’s the 2012 GOP ticket: Romney-Gingrich. The guy who drove to Canada with the family dog strapped to the roof of the car, and the guy who had his cancer-stricken wife served with divorce papers in the hospital. Yikes!
@@
November 13th, 2011
6:00 pm
This blog brings out the………low lifes, the low class, the illiterate and the mentally challenged.
GOP Crazies must be one of Hah-vahd’s elusive exclusives.
schnirt
aloysius
November 13th, 2011
6:23 pm
Newt is a joke. No way he will EVER win the election. Arrogant hypocrite . Cain is even more arrogant; a mean spirited , self absorbed moron who doe not have ANY chance of winning the WH. The silent majority will decide this race, not the 8 idiots that were on TV last night. CSI was better TV anyway.