Newt rising, Cain stalling as bumpy GOP ride takes latest turn
OK, everyone who, back in May, had Herman Cain clinging to a lead in the polls and Newt Gingrich surging into a three-man GOP primary race in mid-November, raise your hands.
Looking … looking … looking … yeah, that’s what I thought. Join the club.
So far, the most reliable quality to the contest to become the Republican opponent for President Barack Obama next year has been its unpredictability.
Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Mitch Daniels did not run. Rick Santorum, last seen losing his bid for re-election to the Senate, and Jon Huntsman, who worked for Obama before seeking to replace him, did.
Yet both of them, along with Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer, made it onto Georgia’s presidential primary ballot — while Tim Pawlenty, at one point endorsed by former Gov. Sonny Perdue, did not.
To say it’s been a volatile race is to say Atlanta gets warm in the summertime.
Since Cain entered it May 21, 10 days after Gingrich officially declared, six different candidates have ranked second in the Real Clear Politics average of major national polls (this and the figures that follow do not include data for Pawlenty, who dropped out Aug. 14).
Guess who’s spent the most time in second, with 63 days: Mitt Romney, the supposedly inevitable GOP nominee. Of course, Romney has also spent more days since then in first place, 112, than the other two front-runners, Cain and Rick Perry, combined.
On the other hand, both Cain and Perry have higher peaks in that average of the polls than does Romney, who still hasn’t touched 26 percent.
On the other-other hand, Romney’s the only one of the six contenders not to spend any of that time in fifth place or lower on average. Second is the lowest he’s fallen.
So far. In this race, you can’t forget to say, “so far.”
But the volatility does not yet signal that the Republicans are handing the race to Obama.
It’s clear that GOP voters feel they have a real chance to unseat the president. But their lack of decisiveness about Romney — so far — reflects both nervousness and confidence.
Nervousness, because Romney is the “safe” choice as far as persuading independent voters to turn against the president they helped elect in 2008. They’re keeping him near the top.
Confidence, because they also think there’s reason to believe even a more — how to put it? — ideologically consistent candidate could beat the rigidly liberal Obama. A less confident GOP would have thrown itself into Romney’s arms by now.
It still might do so. In the meantime, there’s a chance one of the candidates with Georgia connections could land in the top or second slot on the Republican ticket in 2012.
Gingrich is running a campaign described by national pundits as “substantive,” “wonkish” and “unconventional.” That last adjective also applies to Cain’s bid, which rose above most people’s expectations thanks to his status as a political outsider and, of course, his popular 9-9-9 plan to replace the federal tax code.
Gingrich must overcome his well-known baggage. Cain must squash past allegations of sexual harassment and, more important, show he has answers besides 9-9-9: In Wednesday’s debate, he went to that well a few times too many.
Gingrich is rising even though everyone has long known about his problems. Cain is stalling because his are still fresh. But in this race, there’s no reason to dismiss either of their candidacies.
So far.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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240 comments Add your comment
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
1:49 pm
@@, I guess you shouldn’t have stuck your nose into Libya!
MarkV
November 12th, 2011
1:53 pm
As an observer rather than partisan, I find the current slate of Republican candidates interesting to watch. Enough has been said about Mitt Romney’s flip-flopping, which is quite extraordinary. From the general view of welfare of the country, if the disaster happened and Obama was not elected, Romney would be one of the three least damaging candidates (Romney, Gingrich and Huntsman) because of his total lack of principles.
The fall from grace of Rick Perry is another extraordinary occurrence, because he seemed to fit so well in the mood of the more extreme and influential parts of the Republican electorate. By the same token, he would hardly have a chance in general elections. The same might be said about Herman Cain, who seems to appeal mainly to those who prefer slogans to thoughts and consider ignorance a plus.
Rick Santorum is so much out of mainstream on social issues that he is hardly worth mentioning. Even less is Michele Bachmann, who has become more of a joke than a serious challenge. John Huntsman is clearly one of the three most capable of the bunch, but apparently he had made a conscious decision to give appearance of adhering to extreme positions on some issues while keeping common sense on others; it has not worked.
There is some fascinating, albeit superficial similarity between Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich. Paul has some views regarding the foreign policy that are attractive even to liberals, while having such outlandish positions on other issues that one must wonder if he is able to distinguish between reality and fantasy. Gingrich is also fascinating because of his contradictions, but on a different sphere. It is amazing how a clearly educated and experienced person can make so many completely false and stupid statements. That may not harm him too much when a constant stream of lies and demagoguery has desensitized the electorate, but his moral failings may sink him.
@@
November 12th, 2011
1:54 pm
Barry:
I didn’t stick my nose into Libya. Obama did.
(IW&SH)
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
2:06 pm
Oh, that’s right, isn’t it!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
2:08 pm
if the disaster happened and Obama was not elected
———————–
Right, like we really need to keep that 9% unemployment going, those trillion-dollar deficits being repeated every year, and a few million more in poverty. That would be QUITE the disaster.
Ellie Enlightened
November 12th, 2011
2:25 pm
I just have a comment to make when I hear the pundits on both sides say woman are now starting not to support Cain, I have to ask this. What is wrong with majority of American people these days? Why can’t women think for themselves and they believe the LSM rhetoric and lies. Why can’t they use their own common sense and look at the facts? In which this case there is NONE in these allegations. The lies and deceit around these women who are the accusers is evident. Can’t you make up your on minds on PROOF not what the media tells you? I want to know if all you self-rightous woman who are bashing Cain on allegations voted for Bill Clinton in his second term? If you did you are HYPOCRITS pure and simple. Bill Clinton had not allegations but proof of rape and worse and if you voted for him you can’t use this as an excuse against Cain.
GT
November 12th, 2011
2:38 pm
BROTHER!
bolsen00
November 12th, 2011
2:46 pm
So shocking every time I hear someone say that we need to forget about Newt’s character problems! He can be forgiven, but should not be permitted to hold high public office again, just like Clinton. Newt had it all and through his own weaknesses and seedy behavior, it all went awry…threats from the president, ethics investigations, long running affairs on two wives, his entire campaign staff who walked out saying you can’t work with him and he listens to no one, along with Callista being impossible. Voting for Newt is like an alcoholic saying that he’s more mature now and has his problem under control so it’s okay to accept the job in a liquor store or as a bartender…never, never, never.
Jay
November 12th, 2011
2:49 pm
Well, let the media take on Tiffany Newt. This has the potential to bust the Cain coverage.
Late capitalist sewer
November 12th, 2011
3:07 pm
Man it stinks up here on this GOP debate stage.
Rubes never get it
November 12th, 2011
3:09 pm
Newt comes across as someone who is SO certain he is the smartest guy in the room he is doing you a favor to answer your question, however HE sees fit, you so stupidly asked him. He is extremely pompous and condescending. After all, he was a professor of Medieval History at that esteemed institution of higher learning, West Georgia College.
Or maybe he is so annoyed that he, Newt the Great, is having to share a stage with his obvious unequals in intelligence, that he can barely hold back the arrogance he feels at this slight.
Whatever scenario is the truth, he should take some acting lessons in humility from his new Catholic Priest. He must have missed that sermon while he was a Baptist. And certainly will not get any help from wife #3, she is really scary, as much so as Ms McCain.
Paul
November 12th, 2011
3:19 pm
I bet you Newt will fade by mid-December and Perry will have a second surge by New Year’s.
Marie
November 12th, 2011
3:20 pm
Newt is a thrice married two-time adulterer. It is going to come down to Rick Perry or nothing.
Dr. Pangloss
November 12th, 2011
3:42 pm
Lil’ Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 11th, 2011
6:54 pm
It shouldn’t be too hard to do better than 9% unemployment, $1.5 trillion deficits every year, and 47 million on food stamps.
————————–
Yeah, it would be easy to beat George W. Bush’s record.
Dr. Pangloss
November 12th, 2011
3:44 pm
@@
November 12th, 2011
1:54 pm
Barry:
I didn’t stick my nose into Libya. Obama did.
(IW&SH)
——————
And Libya turned out pretty well as wars go. Low cost, no American casualties, Gaddafi dead.
GT/MIT
November 12th, 2011
3:47 pm
Rubes never get it 3:09pm:
And your credentials are????
GT/MIT
November 12th, 2011
3:51 pm
MarkV
November 12th, 2011
1:53 pm
“As an observer rather than partisan”
Just who the heck do you think you’re kidding sport????
MarkV
November 12th, 2011
4:10 pm
GT/MIT @3:51 pm “MarkV: “As an observer rather than partisan” Just who the heck do you think you’re kidding sport????
Use you brain a little, GT/MIT. Obviously I meant not being a partisan in the Republican nomination contest.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
4:10 pm
Dr. Pangloss: Yeah, it would be easy to beat George W. Bush’s record.
———————
How come genius Nobel-winner Obozo can’t do it then?
Obozo: Inferior to our President Bush.
MarkV
November 12th, 2011
4:15 pm
Ellie Enlightened @2:25 pm
Seldom a less appropriate moniker is chosen (Enlightened). “Why can’t they use their own common sense and look at the facts? In which this case there is NONE in these allegations. The lies and deceit around these women who are the accusers is evident.”
Would you share with us the evidence of lies and deceit, which apparently you are privy to, unlike anybody else?
the red herring
November 12th, 2011
4:24 pm
any one of the republican candidates are patriots compared to obama. the veterans should simply have said since we weren’t good enough for you early on then don’t come have your picture taken now. as for god telling herman cain to run for president — i would like to know exactly when it was that obama said that……
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
4:28 pm
Come on now, red herring, Mrs. Obama told us that she loved her country. That love was contingent upon Americans supporting her husband, of course.
amanda
November 12th, 2011
4:45 pm
i cannot stand obama, yet if he were up against gingrich, i really might sit out. holy cow. can a man get any more unlikable? it’s bad enough to consider a man who serially cheats on his wife and dumps her unceremoniously for his floozy (and tooting his hypocritical horn while at it) as the president of the united states, but is it really possible that we might consider having a “the other woman” as the first lady? how low class can we be?
GT/MIT
November 12th, 2011
4:56 pm
MarkV
November 12th, 2011
4:10 pm
“Use you brain a little, GT/MIT. Obviously I meant not being a partisan in the Republican nomination contest.”
Let me get this straight, You’re saying I want them all to lose therefore I’m nonpartisan??? Makes sense to you I suppose..
catlady
November 12th, 2011
5:11 pm
Anyone want to bet how long the Gingriches will stay together if Newt does not get the nomination? I think he has met his match on gold-digging. Newt isn’t half as smart as he thinks, and he has no morals. It is okay to divorce, but his modus operandi is completely smarmy.
Herman Cain is at the other end of the intelligence spectrum. It would be another “absentee President,” as Reagan was at the end.
Romney isn’t trusted by anyone.
It would help the country if the Republicans could search high and low and find a thoughtful, moral person to run–one who can think for himself, and honestly debate policy.
catlady
November 12th, 2011
5:12 pm
*or herself
joe
November 12th, 2011
5:18 pm
can we retire the term “flip flop” thank you.
morons
robert luciano
November 12th, 2011
5:31 pm
Uncle Tom Cain’s collapse only reflects that the Right Wing Freak element of the Republican Party no longer see their “alledged” Black as an amusing novelty. As for the fat, pompous Adulterer, his campaign is analogous to finding a fifteen year old, stained, filthy suit rumpled up in the bottom of a closet, putting it on and pretending it is the lasted fashion.
robert luciano
November 12th, 2011
5:34 pm
God telling Uncle Tom Cain to run for President confirms that God wants to re-elect President Obama…
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
5:35 pm
amanda: is it really possible that we might consider having a “the other woman” as the first lady? how low class can we be?
—————————–
What an unsophisticated, prudish line of thinking. You do realize that the more worldly, superior French and other Europeans would find this quite normal and would think you less developed intellectually for your backward opinions?
catlady
November 12th, 2011
5:38 pm
Barry, do we care what the French and other Europeans think? I mean, they are doing so well, we want to be just like them, right?
MarkV
November 12th, 2011
5:41 pm
GT/MIT @4:56 pm: “Let me get this straight, You’re saying I want them all to lose therefore I’m nonpartisan??? Makes sense to you I suppose..”
GT/MIT, Are you high on something or what? What are you talking about? I wrote my comments on the Republican candidates (@1:53 pm) and I noted that I was writing only as an observer and not a (Republican) partisan – because I did not have ‘any dog in that fight.’ (“As an observer rather than partisan, I find the current slate of Republican candidates interesting to watch.”) Where did I mention anything about you wanting all to lose?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
5:48 pm
catlady: Barry, do we care what the French and other Europeans think?
————————-
We cared when it was a Democrat having “lady troubles”. Don’t you remember? Course not…hypocrites have short memories.
Late capitalist sewer
November 12th, 2011
5:54 pm
Man, that Republican field sure does stink.
Welcome to the Occupation
November 12th, 2011
5:59 pm
Well it’s official. Berlusconi is toast: http://www.repubblica.it/index.html
@@
November 12th, 2011
6:26 pm
Doc:
And Libya turned out pretty well as wars go. Low cost, no American casualties, Gaddafi dead.
Were they harboring terrorists? Aiding terrorists? Not sure what our strategic interest was with that one. Europe’s? Yeah!
How did WE…the U.S. benefit?
getalife
November 12th, 2011
6:34 pm
“An election-eve poll showed that if the presidential election were held today, the Buckeye State would give President Obama an 11-point victory over his nearest Republican opponent, Mitt Romney.”Aol.
Four more years.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
6:47 pm
And why did we go to war with a country that didn’t attack us?
Bwahahaahaaaaaa!
GT/MIT
November 12th, 2011
6:54 pm
@MarkV: My friend I really don’t have much more time for you so let me say this very quickly. You are about as non partisan an an hemorrhoid at a butt kicking. If you wish to come across as non partisan keep your negative comments about the candidates to yourself.
Many good men and women have fought some died for your right to make an idiot of yourself, but you are beginning to abuse the privilege.
Michael H. Smith
November 12th, 2011
6:57 pm
GOP Crazies
November 12th, 2011
12:19 pm
I seriously doubt your .2% number on obumer regulations. obumerCare alone has a tremendous number of regulations probably more than bush had total and still counting and counting and counting…
Any day of the week if your point is that the Democraps are clean and the Repubs are dirty ones. Both are guilty, but if by degree were the contest, which it shouldn’t be, then the Demwits are definitely the dirtiest on regulations record beginning with Socialist Woodrow Wilson bested only by his brother of a different mother, FDR (can you say regulations on steroids) In fact 99% of your peegressive error not era is based on regulations that are outside of the Articles of the Constitution particularly referring to Article 1 section 8.
You betcha SMILLARY CLINTON if we “conservative-libertarians” ever get are political way we shall rollback your pee-gressive regressive socialist clocks to the days before your Marxist fascist grandpa Woody – the eugenicist segregationist – Wilson.
JohnnyReb
November 12th, 2011
7:05 pm
“It’s clear that GOP voters feel they have a real chance to unseat the president.”
Charles Krauthammer’s piece in today’s AJC states the Republican whirlwind of Nov 2010 has subsided to a strong wind (my words, not his) and that we will have to work to defeat Obama. For sure nothing is sure in politicis, but I suggest there are certain failures voters should not forgive and Obama has several. To list a few….
Putting auto worker unions ahead of secured bond holders in the auto industry bailouts.
Putting political supporter investors ahead of the American tax payers in the Solyndra bankruptcty.
Spending more than a year pushing Obamacare through congress when he should have been working on the economy. A wasted year on a law rejected by more than a majority of Americans.
Using stimulus funds as little more than a political slush fund to repay his supporters.
Basically doing everything possible to keep energy prices high such as delaying issue of oil drilling permits, etc.
And the latest, delaying the new oil pipeline which would provide jobs and drive down energy prices. The delay of course means he has bowed to his tree hugger supporters.
Will America be stupid again by keeping a man in the oval office that does not have a clue that his ideology is wrong for America? I don’t know, but I sure hope not.
MarkV
November 12th, 2011
7:09 pm
GT/MIT @6:54 pm
The only one who is making an idiot of himself is you, because you show a total lack of understanding of written word. I never wrote that I was nonpartisan, only that I was making my comments without regard to the partisanship between Republicans and Democrats, merely as observations. If you cannot comprehend this simple concept, do not go among adults.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 12th, 2011
7:30 pm
“We believe we can win Georgia,” Valerie Jarrett, a senior White House adviser, told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution in an interview this week. “We are going to invest in Georgia, develop a grass-roots network. We’re going to work very hard to win Georgia.” -Urinal
I’d concentrate on keeping KKKalifornia, if I were you, just sayin…
Michael H. Smith
November 12th, 2011
7:46 pm
4200 New Regulations in Obama Pipeline- so far
Cass Sunstein, the Regulation Czar, says the regulation relief he announced yesterday will save business $10 billion over five years. But, the latest analysis by the Small Business Administration (SBA) calculates that compliance with federal regulation costs a staggering $1.75 trillion annually – and, that is a 2008 pre-Obama Administration estimate.
That does not include the 75 new major rules generated by Obama in just his first 26 months at an additional burden of $40 billion according to a study by the Heritage Foundation.
Worse, still to come are the impending clean air rules from the EPA, new derivative rules, net neutrality rules, the new CAFE fuel mandates, and the avalanche of rules mandated by ObamaCare and the Dodd-Frank legislation.
The government admits there are 4200 new rules or revisions already in the pipeline.
Sunstein’s announcement is like finding a man drowning under Niagara Falls and “saving” him by removing a cup of water. It is further evidence of the complete detachment from reality by this Administration, and an insult to the intelligence of working people and employers alike to pretend that this is the sum total of outdated, duplicitous, needless regulation that in Obama’s own words, “stifles job creation.”
http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/bobbeauprez/2011/08/25/4200_new_regulations_in_obama_pipeline-_so_far/page/full/
GT/MIT
November 12th, 2011
7:57 pm
@ MarkV: I had returned to this forum to offer you an apology for the rather personal slant on my last remarks to you. That is something I abhor in others and must not tolerate in myself. Now having said that, let me assure you that I have not problem comprehending the written word and most assuredly your “simple concepts”.
As to your assertion that you did not claim nonpartisanship let me refer you to your post of
(November 12th, 2011, 1:53 pm) “As an observer rather than partisan”, from there you proceeded to disparage the slate of Republican candidates. The right to an opinion is foremost in our society, yours not withstanding.
Perhaps it is not I who has the comprehension problem. And with that sir, I wish you a good night..
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
8:21 pm
Israel refuses to tell US its Iran intentions
Israel has refused to reassure President Barack Obama that it would warn him in advance of any pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
——————————
Of course not. You don’t warn your enemies (or their sympathizers) before launching a military operation. We didn’t tell Pakistan about the bin Laden operation for the very same reasons. Don’t want anyone getting tipped off.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
8:27 pm
A Gold Rush of Subsidies in Clean Energy Search
The government support — which includes loan guarantees, cash grants and contracts that require electric customers to pay higher rates — largely eliminated the risk to the private investors and almost guaranteed them large profits for years to come. The beneficiaries include financial firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, conglomerates like General Electric, utilities like Exelon and NRG — even Google.
—————————————–
Obozo’s crony capitalism (and I use the word “capitalism” loosely here) at work.
Obozo: Fascist, pay-to-play corruptocrat.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 12th, 2011
8:59 pm
So who’s the petulant, whiny pinko moderating the debate for SeeBS?
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 12th, 2011
9:00 pm
I like how this lib told his audience to STFU and they told him to KMA.
When you pinkos gonna crawl back under your rocks?
Question Man
November 12th, 2011
9:42 pm
Is the reason for Newt”s rise that he”s full of hot air?