Newt rising, Cain stalling as bumpy GOP ride takes latest turn
OK, everyone who, back in May, had Herman Cain clinging to a lead in the polls and Newt Gingrich surging into a three-man GOP primary race in mid-November, raise your hands.
Looking … looking … looking … yeah, that’s what I thought. Join the club.
So far, the most reliable quality to the contest to become the Republican opponent for President Barack Obama next year has been its unpredictability.
Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Mitch Daniels did not run. Rick Santorum, last seen losing his bid for re-election to the Senate, and Jon Huntsman, who worked for Obama before seeking to replace him, did.
Yet both of them, along with Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer, made it onto Georgia’s presidential primary ballot — while Tim Pawlenty, at one point endorsed by former Gov. Sonny Perdue, did not.
To say it’s been a volatile race is to say Atlanta gets warm in the summertime.
Since Cain entered it May 21, 10 days after Gingrich officially declared, six different candidates have ranked second in the Real Clear Politics average of major national polls (this and the figures that follow do not include data for Pawlenty, who dropped out Aug. 14).
Guess who’s spent the most time in second, with 63 days: Mitt Romney, the supposedly inevitable GOP nominee. Of course, Romney has also spent more days since then in first place, 112, than the other two front-runners, Cain and Rick Perry, combined.
On the other hand, both Cain and Perry have higher peaks in that average of the polls than does Romney, who still hasn’t touched 26 percent.
On the other-other hand, Romney’s the only one of the six contenders not to spend any of that time in fifth place or lower on average. Second is the lowest he’s fallen.
So far. In this race, you can’t forget to say, “so far.”
But the volatility does not yet signal that the Republicans are handing the race to Obama.
It’s clear that GOP voters feel they have a real chance to unseat the president. But their lack of decisiveness about Romney — so far — reflects both nervousness and confidence.
Nervousness, because Romney is the “safe” choice as far as persuading independent voters to turn against the president they helped elect in 2008. They’re keeping him near the top.
Confidence, because they also think there’s reason to believe even a more — how to put it? — ideologically consistent candidate could beat the rigidly liberal Obama. A less confident GOP would have thrown itself into Romney’s arms by now.
It still might do so. In the meantime, there’s a chance one of the candidates with Georgia connections could land in the top or second slot on the Republican ticket in 2012.
Gingrich is running a campaign described by national pundits as “substantive,” “wonkish” and “unconventional.” That last adjective also applies to Cain’s bid, which rose above most people’s expectations thanks to his status as a political outsider and, of course, his popular 9-9-9 plan to replace the federal tax code.
Gingrich must overcome his well-known baggage. Cain must squash past allegations of sexual harassment and, more important, show he has answers besides 9-9-9: In Wednesday’s debate, he went to that well a few times too many.
Gingrich is rising even though everyone has long known about his problems. Cain is stalling because his are still fresh. But in this race, there’s no reason to dismiss either of their candidacies.
So far.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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240 comments Add your comment
Donna P.
November 12th, 2011
7:53 am
It isn’t the Republicans’ or Democrats’ vote that will count in 2012; it’s the Independents that will decide who the next President will be. Even though some of my Democratic friends can’t stand Obama and say they will vote Republican in 2012. If Obama is elected for a second term, everything will stay the same until 2016; high unemployment, high number of people on food stamps, etc. We must keep the Republicans in control of the House and possibly the Senate to curtail any socialist program(s) Obama will try to pass in the future.
jconservative
November 12th, 2011
8:02 am
“Where’s the change?
Wonderful question Lil’ Barry.
I have not seen any change in over 30 years. Well maybe a little under Clinton and a Republican congress. But other than that the last 5 presidents have been 5 peas in the same pod. All decided the way to go was to increase spending and reduce revenue. All believed that would reduce deficits.
All have been proven wrong.
So as we look out over the Republican landscape, what “electable candidate” stands out as one who will reverse the carved in stone policies of the last 30 years?
Michael H. Smith
November 12th, 2011
8:11 am
Ah yeah, struggle for purity.
Fact is none are pure. Fact is Cain and Gingrich will have problems with moderates and independents. Fact is too many hardcore rightwing conservatives are pound wise and penny stupid when it comes to understanding what is at stake. Those are the folks that believe in the back of their mind “so what we’ll get another shot in 4 years at this thing”. You are wrong my friends, simply sadly wrong. Have any of you, hardcore conservatives and you know the circumspect few who I’m talking to, taken a look at the Supreme Court and took that aspect of this race into account when you say hell no to voting for Romney?
If you have, please come back and tell me what you have against Justices Roberts, Scalia, Alito and Thomas?
Give me one more justice on the Supreme Court like any one of the previously mentioned and I can say your precious family values are safe, otherwise you’ll lose everything when another Ruth Bader Ginsburg is appointed.
Clay Willis
November 12th, 2011
8:35 am
Either Mr. Cain or Mr. Speaker would be VASTLY better than Mr. Romney.
The arguments for Romney in 2012 are almost exactly those used for McCain in 2008 and they originate from the same source (Republican establishment operatives and pundits and Democrats) and they will produce the same results – the election of Barack Obama.
Romney’s agreement with “global warming” leftists; his one-time approval of homosexual marriage, abortion, healthcare mandates, government regulations and taxation will keep at least 20% of the Republican base from voting for Romney.
The other Republican candidates are flawed but I rather see any of them (except Huntsman) get the nomination than Romney.
If conservatives let the MSM, Republican establishment and media pundits select their candidate, Obama WILL be re-elected.
jconservative
November 12th, 2011
8:37 am
Michael H. Smith at 8:11
Correct.
carlosgvv
November 12th, 2011
8:37 am
I’m beginning to think it may be possible that the Republican convention will be an open one with no clear certainty at the outset as to who the nominee will be. If so, it will be very interesting to see all the posturing, positioning, maneuvering and back room deals that will surely be happening. If the nomination is up for grabs at the start of the convention, look for a knock down drag out fight for power.
@@
November 12th, 2011
8:52 am
Have any of you, hardcore conservatives and you know the circumspect few who I’m talking to, taken a look at the Supreme Court and took that aspect of this race into account when you say hell no to voting for Romney?
Romney’s record on judicial appointees is sound. Like Ragnar, I’ll cast my vote for whomever is the GOP’s nominee.
There’s just something about Romney…no fire in the belly. Too nice.
@@
November 12th, 2011
8:59 am
If conservatives let the MSM, Republican establishment and media pundits select their candidate, Obama WILL be re-elected.
It’s at the point when Democrats started singing Romney’s praises, that I became skeptical.
Dan F.
November 12th, 2011
9:01 am
This week’s News headlines are flush with reports of Newt’s rise in the polls. But What is really going on? We look at real market data by those who put their money where their mouth is.
http://www.2012presidentialprospects.com/
@@
November 12th, 2011
9:07 am
Three weeks ago, Rasmussen’s poll of likely voters showed Speaker Newt Gingrich trailing President Barack Obama by a whopping 27 percentage points (51 to 24 percent) among independent voters. Now, Rasmussen shows, Obama’s lead over Gingrich has shrunk to just 6 points (41 to 35 percent) among independents. Obama also leads Gingrich by 6 points (44 to 38 percent) among all likely voters.
The majority of voters aren’t watching the primary debates. It’s the one on one (general)…Gingrich vs Obama debate that’ll clinch the deal.
Skippy
November 12th, 2011
9:12 am
You know, hearing that Newt has “too much baggage” is really getting old. I’m tired of hearing about his divorces, as if his poor judgment in choosing wives has anything to do with his proven intelligence, experience and knowledge. I’m sure every one of you has your own “baggage,” and yet all you can say against Newt is that he divorced two wives. O-blah-blah had a history of radical associations, long attendance at a racist, anti-America church, drug use, and proven socialist philosophy, but it didn’t matter, did it? Why? Because he was black. Not because he did anything extraordinary in his life, and not because he had any proven experience in managing anything. I hate to say this, but Hillary would have been a much better president. Obama looks down his nose at you while he speaks condescendingly at the audience. He really does think he’s smarter than you, and for those of you who voted for him, he was right. I sure don’t want four more years of skyrocketing debt, millions more on government handouts, and an actual unemployment rate approaching 20%. Forget talking about Newt’s love life and Herman’s alleged sexual harassment. Either of them would be 100 times better than the bum who lives in the White House right now.
Independent voter
November 12th, 2011
9:24 am
here’s the winning lineup… Mitt Romney for Pres.. Newt Gingrich for V.P… Hermian Cain for Sec. of Defense… Go Dawgs.. Beat Awlbarn !!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
9:43 am
B..b..but if we don’t have massive amounts of regulations with new ones coming out all the time, what will the thousands of frustrated former seventh-grade class presidents who infest Washington DC? How will they satisfy their emotional need to run others’ lives?
joe
November 12th, 2011
9:45 am
cain 2012: we’re gonna need a lot of pizza when the Mayan D day hits the fan, man
joe
November 12th, 2011
9:48 am
anyone else think this piece is stiff? Kyle just doesn’t get it. And I can’t believe he gets to write. He gets to tell people that he’s a writer.
There can’t be a god.
MarkV
November 12th, 2011
9:51 am
Skippy @9:12 am
The problem for you, Skippy, is that Obama is smarter than you, and you can’t get over it.
ragnar danneskjold
November 12th, 2011
9:53 am
Fair analysis. Given that we have covered all of the substance, and lack of same on the other side, suppose we are locked into the horse race aspect for the next four months.
Independent voter
November 12th, 2011
9:55 am
Obama Divider in Chief… Rich against the poor… 99% vs. 1%… Labor Unions vs. Business… OWS is sick…. Not what Kennedy or Clinton did…. USA. does well when the 100% do well !!
Welcome to the Occupation
November 12th, 2011
9:58 am
Cain must squash past allegations of sexual harassment and, more important, show he has answers besides 9-9-9: In Wednesday’s debate, he went to that well a few times too many.
Squash them? Really? Why not “come to terms with them” or “seriously address them” instead?
His identity rests on being perceived as not a standard politician, yet when that means stonewalling in the face of accusations of misdeeds and using attorneys to bully possible additional victims from coming forward, one has to wonder what we gain from all these “non-traditional politicians”.
By the way, doesn’t it suggest a certain crisis in the political order when the best way for a politician to get a hearing is to present themselves as an atypical politician, as a non-politician?
How about instead of a pseudo-non-politician (and that includes the pseudo-non-partisan / post-partisan Barack Obama) we start learning to look for genuine politicians, people willing to put their neck on the line in the name of a universal, as opposed to particular, truth.
Independent voter
November 12th, 2011
10:01 am
Obama is not a bad person… just NO real world experience… no military… no job resume… no business…. voted “present “.. just a liberal education… really no clue how to create jobs… whats a ACORN job anyway ??
@@
November 12th, 2011
10:01 am
This’ll probably irritate Michael. When asked what type of cabinet appointee Newt would be looking for, he offered John Bolton as an example.
GT/MIT
November 12th, 2011
10:15 am
I repeat what I opined in an earlier post, ” anyone who believes that a candidates morality will have a significant impact on his or her presidential viability need only do a little research into recent history.”
I find it very difficult to differentiate between an individual who cheated on one spouse, and one who did likewise on two.
I will support Newt despite his moral lapses simply because, in case you haven’t heard, “its all about the economy stupid”. We now have a President who obviously lacks acumen in matters of economic discipline and has apparently chosen like minded advisors. Bush was bad enough, but as my dear Mother would have said, “we jumped from the frying pan into the fire”.
By the way Kyle, I am of the opinion that the wonkishness of Gringrich is a plus.
Welcome to the Occupation
November 12th, 2011
10:19 am
Is there some reason my posts are being held in moderation? Kyle, do you have a glitch in your blog posting function?
carlosgvv
November 12th, 2011
10:32 am
Barry – 9:43
Not to mention all of those who infest Atlanta.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 12th, 2011
10:46 am
obozo isn’t even smarter than MarkV, just sayin…
marc
November 12th, 2011
10:51 am
the “morals” party..keeps giving Cain cash……lol.
Michael H. Smith
November 12th, 2011
10:52 am
@@
November 12th, 2011
10:01 am
Irritate me, not particularly. Though he probably wouldn’t be at the top of my he but certainly would be on it. A President should have many sounding broads outside of his cabinet for advice and opinions but not “made czars” of xyz policy. Only the voice of the President should set the foreign policy and only set domestic policy in conjunction with the Congress. Something obumer forgot, in his cram-down failure approach to be a leader. He has no constitutional authority to circumvent Congress upon his discretion at any time.
Clinton by far beat this little want-to-be tyrant clown we have now as the same can be said in comparing Speaker Gingrich to want-to-be Queen Pelosi.
Clinton Gingrich got things done.
obumer the solo act has got things “DUNG”!
Michael H. Smith
November 12th, 2011
10:58 am
Excuse the editing typos: boards not broads and add list in place of ” he” before but certainly would be on it.
Check back witcha later folks.
@@
November 12th, 2011
10:58 am
Between Barack and a hard place.
(MoneyWatch) COMMENTARY. The Occupy Wall Street movement, which has spread from one tent city to another across this country, has finally arrived at Harvard University.
And because this is Harvard, the encampment has turned into the most exclusive Occupy protest in the nation. Students have pitched tents in the university’s Harvard Yard, but you can’t join the protest unless you possess a Harvard ID card.
The 99% ain’t good enough to occupy Harvard. The three Rs of Harvard…riffraff, rubble, REFUSE.
Welcome to the Occupation
November 12th, 2011
11:11 am
Still waiting for my post to show.
Kyle, do you have a glitch with your posting function?
Rich Vail
November 12th, 2011
11:13 am
Only in you liberal-MSM addled mind. Look at more than the one poll…while Newt is rising, Cain is still in the lead…until you tear him down some more. He’s a huge threat to your Dear Leader, the One…because you in the media can’t paint him as a racist…
Rich Vail
Pikesville, Maryland
The Vail Spot dot Blogspot dot Com
GOP Crazies
November 12th, 2011
11:15 am
@I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin…
November 12th, 2011
10:46 am
YOU SAY – obozo isn’t even smarter than MarkV, just sayin…
With a blog name like I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin…
You don’t sound like the sharpest knive in the drawer. You sound like one of the the clowns at the rodeo (the GOP Crazies – Cain, Romney, Gingrich, Bachman, Paul)! Oh, I FORGOT RICK PERRY!
GOP Crazies
November 12th, 2011
11:18 am
@Welcome to the Occupation November 12th, 2011 10:19 am
Is there some reason my posts are being held in moderation? Kyle, do you have a glitch in your blog posting function?
Did you not know that these blogs are being read by AJC bfore they are posted. If you say anything unacceptable your blog is not posted sometimes.
Welcome to the Occupation
November 12th, 2011
11:20 am
Rich Vail: “Look at more than the one poll…while Newt is rising, Cain is still in the lead…until you tear him down some more. He’s a huge threat to your Dear Leader, the One…because you in the media can’t paint him as a racist…”
Whatever are you talking about? Dear leader? Who is that exactly?
Welcome to the Occupation
November 12th, 2011
11:23 am
GOP Crazies: “Did you not know that these blogs are being read by AJC bfore they are posted. If you say anything unacceptable your blog is not posted sometimes.”
Most post are instantaneous, are they not? That’s certainly been my experience, at least on the Bookman blog. Only posts that contain certain “flag” words are held in moderation. But over here at Kyle’s blog I’ve noticed that some posts are held for no apparent reason. Just some, not all — as I’m sure this one will go through fine.
GOP Crazies
November 12th, 2011
11:36 am
@Lil’ Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward) November 12th, 2011 5:31 am
YOU SAY – But it would be so much fun to watch Newt dismantle Idiot Obozo in the debates.
Darn Lil Biddy Barry Bailout – you WERE still blogging at 5:31 a.m.?
Boy, are you LONELY? Where is your friend Puss Perot? Couldn’t find a DATE? Nooo, you are too busy berating President Obama.
Sounds like you got the HOTS for Obama. You are OBSESSED WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA!
MMMMmmmm.
Penn State football could use somebody like you! Folks, Hide your kids and hide wife!
Tommy Maddox
November 12th, 2011
11:40 am
He Bullet County @ 8:05 PM on 11/11/11:
You can add Martin Luther King [both Sr and Jr] to your list.
Oh those evil Republicans…
Gnirol
November 12th, 2011
12:10 pm
The funniest line in the piece: “a more — how to put it? — ideologically consistent candidate could beat the rigidly liberal Obama.” This would be which Obama? One the American public has heard of? The writer can’t be addressing the one who continued to bail out the greedy of Wall St. Not the one who sent in the Seals to kill bin Laden. Or the one who is going to get more money for his campaign from the financial industry than any other candidate. Maybe it’s the one who has been annoyingly wishy-washy in dealing with conservatives in the Congress. That Obama is hardly describable as liberal and anything but rigid, unless rigidly caving to the opposition is a new definition of “rigid”. Is this someone named Sherman Obama or Fiannula Obama we’re talking about, who is running for president this cycle? There are so many candidates to keep track of. Maybe I missed the Obama the writer is talking about.
GOP Crazies
November 12th, 2011
12:19 pm
@Michael H. Smith November 12th, 2011 7:49 am – YOU SAY – Regulation is necessary to protect the people citizens (not the corporate citizens) from the predations and deprivations of the large corporates and multinationals. Only a very few regulations are needed.
I agree with your comments. Under Obama there were ONLY 0.2% of regulations; however, George W. Bush had more regulations than Obama.
GT/MIT
November 12th, 2011
12:36 pm
Probably most of us have heard the bromide, the personification of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result. So, in 2008 the people voted for and elected a man who promised change. Well got it and now we are trying to survive it. Let’s not do the same thing over again.
But, back to the subject. Newt was a history professor, and is still a history student. Reasonable people know that in order to achieve future success we must have in depth knowledge of our past, thereby guarding against making the same mistakes again and again. That does not guarantee total success in the future, but it does keeping us from making the same stupid mistake was made in 2008.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
12:43 pm
“Students have pitched tents in the university’s Harvard Yard, but you can’t join the protest unless you possess a Harvard ID card.”
———
ROFLMGDAO!
I guess they’re the bottom 99% of the top 1%
Libtards: Hypocrites. And the more libtarded, the more hypocritical.
@@
November 12th, 2011
12:45 pm
Michael:
Sorry, I had you confused with Dave R. He’s the one opposed to Bolton’s “interventionist” ways.
obumer the solo act has got things “DUNG”!
You have a sense of humor. I was beginning to wonder.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
12:48 pm
Newt in intellectually superior to the Idiot Obozo and has many well-considered ideas for many of the problems we’re facing.
Obozo has one idea that he applies to all problems–more and bigger government. Can’t afford your adult diapers? There’s a program for that.
@@
November 12th, 2011
1:08 pm
Americans looking for jobs and energy independence, were just sacrificed to a small group of environmentalists. Withholding their support, they’ve now vowed to work for his re-election.
Transcript
“Nightly Business Report”–PBS
TOM HUDSON: As oil prices move close to $100 per barrel, it will still be several more years before energy from Canadian oil sands will be piped into the United States. The State Department this week delayed construction of the Keystone X-L pipeline as it reviews its route through an environmentally sensitive area in Nebraska. Andrew Schneider reports tonight from our bureau at Houston PBS.
ANDREW SCHNEIDER, HOUSTON, TX: The proposed Keystone X-L pipeline would be used to transport crude oil 1700 miles from Canada`s Alberta tar sands across six states to the gulf coast of Texas. At peak capacity the pipeline would transport more than 800,000 barrels per day. TransCanada, the pipeline`s builder, estimates the construction of the pipeline alone would create more than 20,000 manufacturing and construction jobs and inject $20 billion in new spending into the U.S. economy.
Rip Torn
November 12th, 2011
1:09 pm
“My nephews and nieces, in their early 20s, don’t have professional jobs yet having just graduated from college, but they have access to health care insurance, because “ObamaCare” extended their parent’s policies to them, until they are 26 years old. Those same kids, will be able to consolidate their college loans, so they can better able to establish themselves to be productive Americans.”
Why does a 22 year old need health insurance? Are you from a family of lepers? I’m 30 and my health insurance costs $70/month. Probably because I’m not a fatty and I take care of myself. And don’t whine to me about pre-ex conditions. Just because you’re family is of bad stock and/or eats too much Taco Bell and swills soda all day doesn’t mean I should pay for them. Cuba has free healthcare, go live there.
GOP Crazies
November 12th, 2011
1:14 pm
@Lil’ Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward) November 12th, 2011 12:48 pm
Newt in intellectually superior to the Idiot Obozo. Obozo has one idea that he applies to all problems–more and bigger government. Can’t afford your adult diapers? There’s a program for that.
Folks, Lil Biddy Barry Bailout is OBSESSED WITH OBAMA!
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Lil Biddy Barry was still blogging at 5:31 a.m.!
He must be LONELY! I guess he couldn’t find a DATE and he was too busy berating President Obama.
Sounds like he has a thang for Obama! MMMMmmmm. GET A LIFE LIL BIDDY BARRY.
Women say Obama is pretty cute and I guess you think so too since all you can talk about is OBAMA!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
November 12th, 2011
1:19 pm
Women say Obama is pretty cute
——————–
Coach Sandusky does too…he could put those big ears to good use.
GOP Crazies
November 12th, 2011
1:27 pm
@Lil’ Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward) November 12th, 2011 1:19 pm
YOU SAY – Coach Sandusky does too…he could put those big ears to good use.
Sounds like you are talking from EXPERIENCE. I bet you do KNOW about putting those big ears to good use! It takes one to know one.
You are one! MMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
@@
November 12th, 2011
1:29 pm
Folks, Lil Biddy Barry Bailout is OBSESSED WITH OBAMA!
And “Crazies” is obsessed with….????????
=====================================
STRATFOR received word Thursday that senior Syrian army officers are advising their subordinates to evacuate their relatives from the Sunni-concentrated city of Homs. The army is preparing to intensify its ongoing crackdown in Syria’s most restive city. According to a source, Syrian President Bashar al Assad has instructed the Republican Guard to take necessary measures to “finish off” the uprising in Homs by the end of next week. Republican Guard commanders have also been instructed to spare the Al Nuzha and al Zahra sections of Homs from shelling, as these areas are populated predominantly by Alawites.
1982 Hama massacre. Our media offered little coverage of the massacre.
Not saying we should intervene. Just speculating as to why Libya and not Syria.
GOP Crazies
November 12th, 2011
1:44 pm
@@@ November 12th, 2011 1:29 pm Folks, Lil Biddy Barry Bailout is OBSESSED WITH OBAMA!
And “Crazies” is obsessed with….????????
=====================================
YOU SAY – Not saying we should intervene. Just speculating as to why Libya and not Syria.
======================================
That is the problem – people like you are always sticking their nose where it don’t belong!