Newt rising, Cain stalling as bumpy GOP ride takes latest turn

OK, everyone who, back in May, had Herman Cain clinging to a lead in the polls and Newt Gingrich surging into a three-man GOP primary race in mid-November, raise your hands.

Looking … looking … looking … yeah, that’s what I thought. Join the club.

So far, the most reliable quality to the contest to become the Republican opponent for President Barack Obama next year has been its unpredictability.

Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Mitch Daniels did not run. Rick Santorum, last seen losing his bid for re-election to the Senate, and Jon Huntsman, who worked for Obama before seeking to replace him, did.

Yet both of them, along with Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer, made it onto Georgia’s presidential primary ballot — while Tim Pawlenty, at one point endorsed by former Gov. Sonny Perdue, did not.

To say it’s been a volatile race is to say Atlanta gets warm in the summertime.

Since Cain entered it May 21, 10 days after Gingrich officially declared, six different candidates have ranked second in the Real Clear Politics average of major national polls (this and the figures that follow do not include data for Pawlenty, who dropped out Aug. 14).

Guess who’s spent the most time in second, with 63 days: Mitt Romney, the supposedly inevitable GOP nominee. Of course, Romney has also spent more days since then in first place, 112, than the other two front-runners, Cain and Rick Perry, combined.

On the other hand, both Cain and Perry have higher peaks in that average of the polls than does Romney, who still hasn’t touched 26 percent.

On the other-other hand, Romney’s the only one of the six contenders not to spend any of that time in fifth place or lower on average. Second is the lowest he’s fallen.

So far. In this race, you can’t forget to say, “so far.”

But the volatility does not yet signal that the Republicans are handing the race to Obama.

It’s clear that GOP voters feel they have a real chance to unseat the president. But their lack of decisiveness about Romney — so far — reflects both nervousness and confidence.

Nervousness, because Romney is the “safe” choice as far as persuading independent voters to turn against the president they helped elect in 2008. They’re keeping him near the top.

Confidence, because they also think there’s reason to believe even a more — how to put it? — ideologically consistent candidate could beat the rigidly liberal Obama. A less confident GOP would have thrown itself into Romney’s arms by now.

It still might do so. In the meantime, there’s a chance one of the candidates with Georgia connections could land in the top or second slot on the Republican ticket in 2012.

Gingrich is running a campaign described by national pundits as “substantive,” “wonkish” and “unconventional.” That last adjective also applies to Cain’s bid, which rose above most people’s expectations thanks to his status as a political outsider and, of course, his popular 9-9-9 plan to replace the federal tax code.

Gingrich must overcome his well-known baggage. Cain must squash past allegations of sexual harassment and, more important, show he has answers besides 9-9-9: In Wednesday’s debate, he went to that well a few times too many.

Gingrich is rising even though everyone has long known about his problems. Cain is stalling because his are still fresh. But in this race, there’s no reason to dismiss either of their candidacies.

So far.

– By Kyle Wingfield

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240 comments Add your comment

Rubes never get it

November 11th, 2011
6:40 pm

The only reason you might think Newt is rising is his resemblance to the Pillsbury Doughboy. Finger poke HEHEHEHE

Ev

November 11th, 2011
6:45 pm

Kyle,
They are all nerds, and fatally flawed. Too bad you could not convince Jeb to run; he is extremely talented, and very likable. If he had ran, instead of George, it is hard to imagine where we might be today, so much has happened, but likely a much better place.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)

November 11th, 2011
6:54 pm

It shouldn’t be too hard to do better than 9% unemployment, $1.5 trillion deficits every year, and 47 million on food stamps.

Rubes never get it

November 11th, 2011
6:55 pm

Check out the Dow when Obama took office and today idiot

Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)

November 11th, 2011
7:00 pm

Only the 1% care about the Dow. The folks who gave up looking for work aren’t impressed. Millions are suffering because of your Obozo’s failures. Where’s the change?

Ross Perot

November 11th, 2011
7:00 pm

I think a-lot of conservatives are willing to put aside character flaws at this juncture and look for a candidate with fresh ideas and problem solving capabilities. Mitt Romney would be a Bush like candidate, whereas Newt or Cain might actually have the stones to address the tough issues that face this country. Liberals are happy with a guy that looks presidential and delivers vague plans in the form of sound bites from a teleprompter.

GOP Crazies

November 11th, 2011
7:10 pm

@Lil’ Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward) November 11th, 2011 7:00 pm
YOU SAY – Millions are suffering because of your Obozo’s failures. Where’s the change?

Where is the change? Ask your GOP candidates?. Barry who is the FLAVOR OF THE WEEK (Eye of Newt)? THATS YOUR CHANGE?

REPUBLICANS ARE FLIP FLOPPERS!

@Lil’ Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward) November 11th, 2011 6:18 pm
you say – If you didn’t vote for Obozo, it’s only because the van didn’t stop to pick you up to get you to the polls.

WE SAY – If you didn’t vote for one of THE PLANET OF THE APES (EIGHT), it is only because you were in the locker room with somebody’s little BOY!!!!!!!!

Hide your kids!!!!!!!

Joe

November 11th, 2011
7:15 pm

Change? Lil’ Barry Bailout, well I finally allowed access to health care insurance because of “ObamaCare”. Georgia was one of the few remaining states that had bothered not set up a high risk pool for those able to pay for their own health insurance, but were blocked/locked out by the private insurance industry (for the lamest of reasons, probably just excuses to not cover those over 50 years of age, in this state). My nephews and nieces, in their early 20s, don’t have professional jobs yet having just graduated from college, but they have access to health care insurance, because “ObamaCare” extended their parent’s policies to them, until they are 26 years old. Those same kids, will be able to consolidate their college loans, so they can better able to establish themselves to be productive Americans. And, very soon, our son will be coming home. The war is over!!!

It is going to be the best Christmas ever, because President Obama can get the job done. Yes, we can!!!

Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)

November 11th, 2011
7:18 pm

Thanks for the laugh, Joe.

Obozo’s “accomplishments” as noted by Joe are all handout programs intended to get more greedy parasites addicted to the dole.

Ross Perot

November 11th, 2011
7:26 pm

It’s a shame, Joes kids are destined to have some European teeth under Obamacare. But at least they’ll be able to eat corn through a picket fence when times get tougher!

GOP Crazies

November 11th, 2011
7:29 pm

@Lil’ Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward) November 11th, 2011 7:18 pm
YOU SAY – Thanks for the laugh, Joe. Obozo’s “accomplishments” as noted by Joe are all handout programs intended to get more greedy parasites addicted to the dole.

Lil biddy Barry Bailout everyone knows that you are a greedy parasite addicted to the BLOG.

Folks, Lil biddy Barry Bailout is on EVERY BLOG. HE IS A LONELY GUY LOOKING FOR ATTENTION!

Ross Perot

November 11th, 2011
7:49 pm

GOP Crazies,
You need to go back to grade school and work on your punctuation. You will qualify for the free lunches as well!

Bullet County

November 11th, 2011
8:05 pm

Sandusky, Paterno, Cain, Gingrich: coincidentially they’re registered Republicans.

larry.333

November 11th, 2011
8:06 pm

Sounds Like The News Media Is Still Trying “To Elect Our Candidate” !!??

larry.333

November 11th, 2011
8:07 pm

And Newt Has How Many Wife’s ??

Michael H. Smith

November 11th, 2011
8:19 pm

I do love the way the media continues to try an pump suspense into a “cut n dry” decision that most likely has already been made by the GOP establishment. Then again Kyle and the rest got empty space and air time to fill with something, anything or anybody other than a clear winner this early (too early for their liking) now don’t they?

Albeit, I’m content to support any one of the three (Romney, Cain or Gingrich) despite facts being what they are, given that we will have a harder task ahead of us with either one of the two of them. That said, each of them has strong points and weak points as well; on that we argue, agree or agree to disagree but what should be an easy to conclude is that our opposition has narrowed this race down to one by now, despite the media’s need to feed and our emotional driven bickering amongst ourselves.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)

November 11th, 2011
8:34 pm

I think you’ll find that “GOP Crazies” punctuation is a lot like “Shame on Penn State” on another thread

Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)

November 11th, 2011
8:37 pm

larry.333: And Newt Has How Many Wife’s ??
———————-

Just one. Why do you ask?

Ross Perot

November 11th, 2011
8:53 pm

Yes Larry, Newt only has one wife, and fortunately for him she looks nothing like Michelle O’grinch Bama. Bullett County, Barney Frank is calling you back to bed. It’s cold out tonight and he needs a cuddle.

@@

November 11th, 2011
8:56 pm

My hand is raised.

Patience…it’s my only virtue.

At this point, I can see independents/moderates going for Newt over Romney.

Gingrich/Cain? Only time will tell.

Bullet County

November 11th, 2011
9:04 pm

Ross Perot, is it mere coincidence that Barney Frank is on your mind tonight?

spaceman109

November 11th, 2011
9:08 pm

it really is funny to hear all the complaints about handout programs when those who make such complaints refuse to see anything bad about alleged capitalist companies being as dependent on gommint subsidies as a crack addict is on the next hit.

archer daniels midland, anyone??

i am confident that those companies will work hard (and *very* quietly) behind the scenes against any effort to change the present tax structure. the loss of billions in gommint subsidies could cause a short-term crash in the stock market.

there…i said it and i am glad!! :D

Ross Perot

November 11th, 2011
9:08 pm

He may have been on my mind as I think of the housing meltdown, but at least I’m not spooning with him like someone in the blog room…

MrLiberty

November 11th, 2011
9:09 pm

I guess so long as the media, including Kyle, only give any legitimate attention to the status quo candidates like Romney, Cain, Gingrich, Bachmann, Perry, and Huntsman, they won’t have to worry about the steadily climbing poll numbers of the only candidate that is actually offering something different from just another 4 years of Bush/Obama. But then Ron Paul threatens everything that Cox Media and the rest have a vested financial interest in, so there is little hope that they will ever give him a fair shake.

You would think that with the new PM of Greece being a former Federal Reserve economist and Trilateral Commission member, the new PM of Italy being a former Goldman Sachs guy, Cain being a former Fed director from the KC bank, Romney getting more money from Goldman Sachs this campaign than any other single contributor, the Fed being responsible for all of our economic woes that a staunch opponent of the Fed – Ron Paul, might get some air time, but no.

Oh well, he is the only candidate anyone should be talking about and any vote for anyone else is a wasted vote for america’s future, but you keep ignorning him and see if any of these other clowns will actually do the right thing for america.

Ross Perot

November 11th, 2011
9:15 pm

You know how they separate the men from the boys in Bullett County? Cold water and a pry bar!

groper cain

November 11th, 2011
9:44 pm

Kosh dumps massive cash in to pay for a criminal defense layer and Cain calls it a victory.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)

November 11th, 2011
10:34 pm

Obozo’s cronies at MF Global can’t find nearly a billion dollars of customer’s cash. Where were the regulators? 1000 employees laid off there. Meanwhile Obozo is ducking the issue of the Keystone Pipeline, voting “present” again, and costing 20,000 construction workers their jobs.

All in all, a pretty successful week by Obozo’s standards.

GOP Crazies

November 11th, 2011
10:51 pm

@Ross Perot November 11th, 2011 7:49 pm YOU SAY – GOP Crazies, You need to go back to grade school and work on your punctuation. You will qualify for the free lunches as well!

I did not know that this blog was being critiqued for typing and grammatical errors because if it were a lot of you country hicks would have been blocked long time ago.

Love ya……GOP crazies

sim

November 11th, 2011
10:54 pm

What makes the GOP think that a lousy human being will make a good President?

GOP Crazies

November 11th, 2011
10:57 pm

@Lil’ Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward) November 11th, 2011 8:34 pm
YOU SAY – I think you’ll find that “GOP Crazies” punctuation is a lot like “Shame on Penn State” on another thread

So now you are the blog police!

Po lil biddy Barry he ain’t got nothing better to do but police the blog.

Get a life lil biddy Barry and take Ross Perot with you.

Love ya…..GOP Crazies

GOP Crazies

November 11th, 2011
11:00 pm

@Ross Perot November 11th, 2011 8:53 pm – YOU SAY – Yes Larry, Newt only has one wife, and fortunately for him she looks nothing like Michelle O’grinch Bama. Bullett County, Barney Frank is calling you back to bed. It’s cold out tonight and he needs a cuddle.

At least Michelle has all of her teeth, she smells good and she does not have lice like your mama!

GOP Crazies

November 11th, 2011
11:05 pm

Lil biddy Barry Bailout and Puss Perot put down the meth pipe and go back to the trailer park!

Your ankle braclets are about to go off!!!!!!

SwamiDave

November 11th, 2011
11:12 pm

Kyle:

If we go back to May, then I can honestly say that I expected Gingrich to be among the contenders.

If we go back to Oct 5 and since, then I have been predicting that Gingrich would end up the nominee. This prediction made before anyone outside of Politico knew what was about to occur.

My perspective was that Cain had peaked a bit too early and would likely struggle under the lights of “front-runner” status. Gingrich, in third at that point, would be poised to take his lead in early December in preparation for Iowa.

As I said in the post then, whether this was planned, providence, or unadulterated blind luck, the stars were setting up almost perfectly for Gingrich to take the lead at the opportune time, coalesce his support in the early primaries / caucuses, and move solidly toward his nomination as the Republican Party’s candidate.

Nothing has happened to dissuade me of that prediction (save the possibility that Cain faltered too early). However, it is equally likely that this will serve to drive some of the other candidates from the race even before Iowa which would all, but guarantee my prediction!

-SD

Jim

November 11th, 2011
11:18 pm

Character counts. It did when President Clinton created a hositle work environment in the White House via his immorality and it did when Newt Gingrich carried on an immoral affair while married.

Republicans cannot excuse the immoral lapses of people like Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain by saying that democrats excused the immorality of President Clinton.

If you want to take back the White House, you have a pro business candidate that consistently polls at or above the President. Mitt Romney has the executive experience and proven record to lead this country.

If republicans want to give away a golden opportunity to retake the White House, they will nominate Newt Gingrich or Herman Cain. If they want to win, they will nominate Mitt Romney.

UGA grad

November 12th, 2011
4:53 am

I didn’t want to vote for Obama again, but these Republicans will make me do it. The only one who seems to have any principles is Jon Huntsman. Mitt Romney builds a $25 million dollar home in California and Gingrich’s spend millions at Tiffany’s. Herman Cain plans become another Rush Limpdick or Glenbekistan; he’s not a serious candidate.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)

November 12th, 2011
5:31 am

“If republicans want to give away a golden opportunity to retake the White House, they will nominate Newt Gingrich”
———————-

But it would be so much fun to watch Newt dismantle Idiot Obozo in the debates.

DeborahinAthens

November 12th, 2011
6:36 am

Lil Barry, you are so full of it. Repeating the MF Global rant repeated from the talk show dimwits. Being a donor to President Obama’s campaign doesn’t make them cronies. And this seems to bother you mindless Repugs. It didn’t bother y’all too much when Dubya the Dumb put his best friend, Ken Lay, on his secretive Enegy Commission which decided energy policy, and deregulated a lot of the pipeline/energy business. These very same policies led to Enron being able to do their dirty work. The fact that Enron cheated, lied, cooked their books, etc. didn’t bother Dubya the Dumb and his puppet master, Dick Cheney. NOW you blather about croneyism, complain about his about face on the Keystone Pipeline–it’s about fracking time somebody tried to stop this insanity with dirty, environmentally destructive fossil fuel. Speaking of fracking…ask someone who can no longer can drink their water or sell their home because of the destruction these energy companies have caused what they think about deregulation. Yet you mimic the talking fat white guys on radio. You make fun of the fact that this administration is doing its best to foster the growth of clean energy. You are all being manipulated by the oil companies, the gas pipeline companies, the utilities that refuse to modernize their plants. The overactive libidos of Cain and Newt don’t show nearly as much “lack of character” as Dubya the Dumb, Cheney, Condoleeza Rice (who was on the board of a major oil company–which has a tanker named after her). Follow the money, dimwits. These people are not your friends, but love you because you are so gullible and stupid.

Michael H. Smith

November 12th, 2011
6:44 am

What stands-out in obumer is failures, crony capitalism, Marxism and a closet full of flip flops, now I wouldn’t exactly call those principles. Oh and do check out obumer’s estimated worth, as well as his list of chief (wall street banker, major corporation and university) contributors?

Not one of these GOP candidates have a need to walk backwards when addressing the obumer’s pathetic record.

Buzz G

November 12th, 2011
7:10 am

The leftists in the media are doing all they can to bring down Herman, but they can’t. Additionally, he has a great sense of humor, something you never see in the politically correct AJC. Newt is great, but he can’t duplicate Herman’s skill in negotiating the minefield the media has laid for him. Herman is in it for the long term. It will come down to a race between Herman and Romney.

Honkies for Herman.
Power to the people.

Michael H. Smith

November 12th, 2011
7:12 am

NOW you blather about croneyism, complain about his about face on the Keystone Pipeline–it’s about fracking time somebody tried to stop this insanity with dirty, environmentally destructive fossil fuel.

Glad I don’t met your qualifications as a mindless Repug and I hope you’re not of the empty-headed belief that the demwit democraps are any less hypocritically supportive dirty energy?

I mean doing the same exact dirty things in someone else’s backyard on their side of the planet, not our’s and having to use a military to do it, isn’t quite something to come on a blog ranting about with an ad hominem diatribe that could be seen as more of a defense than efforts to promote a genuine cleaner difference.

Stopping the dirty fossil fuel insanity is where we would agree. Where we would disagree is on the means, methods and likely final strategic sustainable energy initiative that will deliver on the promise energy independence.

Ayn Rant

November 12th, 2011
7:19 am

A race for dumb and dumber! Don’t ya’ll “conservatives” get it? Your candidates are wealthy, educated men talking down to you because they’re quite sure you are unthinking and stupid!

Perry wants to abolish three departments of government; no particular reason, any three will do, just his version of a smaller government. Cain wants to tax wage-earners at the same rate as Big Business CEOs and derivatives traders. Gingrich has moments of intelligence, but a long history of petulance and deceit that makes him unsuitable for public office. Bachmann is nutty as a fruitcake. Romney will tell you what you want to hear, which is drivel.

There’s a real nation out here, and it’s hurting. How about tackling some real issues: a failed economy that cannot provide jobs for 20% of the working age population; 30 million or so poor, ignorant, unneeded, hopeless people; 2 million working age people living miserably in prison at great public expense; money damned up at the top instead of circulating; a runaway military arming for a Cold War that no longer exists; a federal government sabotaged by the same politicians who are obstructing the cleanup efforts.

Michael H. Smith

November 12th, 2011
7:22 am

You should know that if the extremest leftwing socialist environmentalist faction didn’t exist in this country the fossil fuel industry would have to create one for price support purposes!

clanmack

November 12th, 2011
7:25 am

@DeborahinAthens– That’s telling the truth. There’s a lot more that could be said. The problem is that no one on this blog is open minded enough to acknowledge the ideas or thoughts of someone who doesn’t buy the “party line” in toto. None of these people are focused on ideas, only the people or personalities. It just escalates the polarization that has dragged our government into the total dysfunctionality.
Try putting some ideas out for discussion, examination and analysis. For instance DeborahinAthens offers a perfect foundation for regulation and ethics discussion. Regulation is necessary to protect the people citizens (not the corporate citizens) from the predations and deprivations of the large corporates and multinationals. Cost benefit analysis should be done to insure against over regulation (any regulation is not over-regulation!). The corporations and multinationals should not be left to police themselves or their industries. That has never worked out to protect the ordinary citizens, whether it be professionals, small or large business entities. Anyone care to comment on these ideas?

I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

November 12th, 2011
7:29 am

Gingrich does have a lot of pinkos in his closet but he isn’t afraid to tee one up and blast them, especially some whiny lib debate moderator. While it is highly entertaining, it is not something that should make him stand out. liberals are feeble, lame and deserve to be ridiculed, all of these Republicans should be mocking the likes of Karen Tumulty, if they weren’t so skeered or squishy (see Romney.)

Cain is the one who stands the best chance, by far. I would really love to see iman obozo bring up Chinese nukes after he’s given the entire Middle East and all of it’s oil resources to al Qaida, Let sheik barakkk giggle at Herman about 9-9-9 after he’s put 9-9-9-0-0-0-0-0-0 people on food stamps. Let Teleprompter Barry tell Cain he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

And without the race card, emperor obozo has no clothes.

So don’t get behind Cain, pass up your chance to severely damage the lib smear factory, don’t take this once in a lifetime opportunity to forever destroy the goony lib myth of Republican bigotry, no, let’s trot out another squish like McBushie and let the libs complete their destruction of America.

Great plan.

Oduma and Dumber Company

November 12th, 2011
7:34 am

A race for dumb and dumber! Don’t ya’ll “conservatives” get it? Your candidates are wealthy, educated men talking down to you because they’re quite sure you are unthinking and stupid!

———————-

YEAH RIGHT! Hey dip-sticks, how many democrat senators in the senate are millionaires? DUH! DUH! um… need a lil bit more time to think?! :lol:

Oh and your lil iddy-biddy buddy barry obozo the food stamp President, under whose watch more Americans now live in poverty than ever before, is nobody’s pauper.

Independent

November 12th, 2011
7:35 am

I thought the Donald was the front runner. I just heard Bill Clinton had a girlfriend when he was pres. I guess the liberal media kept that quiet. Does Oromneycare have a death squad like Obamacare?

Southerner

November 12th, 2011
7:40 am

Let’s run a black guy. He doesn’t know much and his tax plan will raise taxes on middle income. He might draw black votes from Obama. What is the worse that could happen? 4 MORE YEARS

Ross Perot

November 12th, 2011
7:42 am

Gop Crazies sure likes to call people hicks and rednecks. I guess his cardboard house in under a bridge in mid-town. I hope that Mad Dog is keeping ya warm buddy. Also, quit hogging the computers at the library for blogging. We have lots of government educated college grads looking for fast food work and need the computers!

jconservative

November 12th, 2011
7:48 am

“…there’s a chance one of the candidates with Georgia connections could land in the top or second slot on the Republican ticket in 2012.”

If this happens Obama gets 4 more years.

Whoever the Republican nominee is will get 47% of the popular vote. Obama will get 47% of the vote. The winner is the guy who can get the remainig 6%. And we all know Cain and Gingrich are not going to get that 6% of the vote. Just to much baggage; just to many skeltons in the closet.

Watching the Republicans struggle for purity has been entertaining. Watching the Republicans try to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory has been amusing.

Michael H. Smith

November 12th, 2011
7:49 am

Regulation is necessary to protect the people citizens (not the corporate citizens) from the predations and deprivations of the large corporates and multinationals. Cost benefit analysis should be done to insure against over regulation (any regulation is not over-regulation!). The corporations and multinationals should not be left to police themselves or their industries. That has never worked out to protect the ordinary citizens, whether it be professionals, small or large business entities.

Anyone care to comment on these ideas?

Yeah, you are mostly wrong. Regulations should have to stand up to a cost benefit analysis. Regulations should be voted on by the congress before they can be enacted.

I don’t think you understand the subject of regulations based on the content of your comment. Where do these regulators come from that write these regulations? Would it surprise you know that many of them were former employees of these corporations and multinationals in your complaint?

Furthermore , as a result, you will probably fine that regulations too often are actually carve-out favors done for the protection of corporation interest by politicians in return for election support.

Only a very few regulations are needed.