Cain still leads the GOP field in Iowa (Updated)
UPDATED at 2:25 p.m.: Until a few minutes ago, Herman Cain could keep up his lead because of the lack of details about his alleged actions. All that may have ended with the press conference a new accuser, Sharon Bialek just gave. Now there’s a name and face to a woman who’s been willing to make her accusation very publicly, and very specifically. I have a feeling Cain’s poll numbers are about to take a serious hit.
—
ORIGINAL POST: So far, the reports of sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain have not cost him his lead in Iowa, which will kick off the GOP nomination process with its caucuses on Jan. 3.
Keep in mind as we go through these polls that the first story about Cain and the harassment allegations was published on the evening of Oct. 30.
Insider Advantage found Cain held a 15-point lead over Mitt Romney (30 percent to 15 percent). The poll was taken Nov. 3, four days after the story broke, and it shows that Cain almost doubled his lead from mid-October. Holding steady in third was Newt Gingrich with 12 percent. No one else was in double-digits. Caitlin Huey-Burns at Real Clear Politics notes:
Cain leads among each age group by double digits except for voters 65 and older, who back Romney over Cain, 25 percent to 14 percent. Cain also leads among minority groups. He holds a 17-point edge over Gingrich among male voters (Romney comes in third) and a 12-point lead over Romney among females (Gingrich places third).
That lead among females may be the most surprising bit, in light of the allegations.
Another pollster, JMC Enterprises, surveyed Iowans a day earlier and found a much closer race: a tie between Cain and Romney at 20 percent apiece, with Gingrich nipping at their heels with 16 percent; everyone else was at least 10 points further back. As far as I can tell, JMC had not polled Iowa recently. The pollster’s executive summary did not include cross-tabs for support of each candidate by gender, although it did find a narrow plurality of women thought the charges against Cain were “trumped up.” (H/t: Jim Geraghty)
If the allegations, and Cain’s poor response to them, are going to hurt him, it would appear it’ll take more than what we’ve heard so far. In Iowa, at least.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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146 comments Add your comment
The Ruthless Way
November 7th, 2011
3:04 pm
Bart Abel – Well actually what you say about what the poor pay is a little inaccurate. They pay exactly the same sales tax as everyone else regardless of income. Now I know that percentage wise that means they poor more from their personal income and I get that. However, I’ve heard Mister Cain talk on this quite a bit and he claims that there are plans in place for the people that make less than a certain percentage. Meaning that they will get some kind of a break. I dont know if that comes in some form of a rebate or what, but I have heard him say that.
Common Sense
November 7th, 2011
3:07 pm
Under Cain, the rate on income arising out of pure luck, via an inheritance, would be 0 percent.
If you really believe that it was pure luck then your it is certain that your parents were in a position to leave you none of the assets that they had earned.
But it was lifestyle choices, not pure luck.
Filter
November 7th, 2011
3:08 pm
UGA,
It is just as hypocritical and disingenuous to claim these charges are valid as it is to dismiss like you would have us do. That’s why, and if you look at all my posts on this you’ll see I am consistent about this, I believe that this is a story that should be reported upon and looked into before either a condemnation or exoneration should be claimed by anyone.
Oh, and I love how you lump me in on the left due to my disagreement with you. You’re omniscient apparently.
UGA 1999
November 7th, 2011
3:10 pm
Filter….omnisceient…..Nope….
Realist….yes.
Filter
November 7th, 2011
3:13 pm
Realist, huh?
That’s the biggest laugh of the day.
Bart Abel
November 7th, 2011
3:15 pm
UGA,
Your handle is a discredit to my Alma Mater. I’ll re-post what I said about your double-taxation argument with the hope that you will read it this time.
“…just as taxes were previous paid on the money that is passed on in a will, taxes were previously paid by our customers on money that ends up in our paychecks.”
In short, all income is double taxed and triple taxed and quadruple taxed as it moves through the economy. This phenomena isn’t exclusive to inheritance income. Why some believe that inherited money should receive special treatment while money from work should be taxed at higher rates continues to be a mystery to me.
Sister Sarah
November 7th, 2011
3:57 pm
You can get so sick of people who continually distort the facts. Tell the truth about the 2 year U.S. Senator who spent his tenure running for office and you will find a skilled politician who served MULTIPLE terms at the state level. Of course the liars will have you believe went from “communit organizing” straight into the White House! Laughable! Additionally, I don’t necessarily have had to actually BUILD a wide area computer network, but if I have been to Cisco school, I can competently answer simple and even advanced questions from my schooling/certification process. (See Obama lacked foreign policy experience hollow argument). On the other hand…Uncle Huhmin sees no value whatsoever in even knowing the leader of “Uzi beki becki becki stan stan”, and BASKS in the ignorance! Reality and comprehension check puhleease!!!!
ragnar danneskjold
November 7th, 2011
4:14 pm
Dear Kyle, I perceive you think Herman is popular with prospective voters because they believe he never sexually harassed anyone. If that is the case, we are about to revoke your conservative credentials.
Herman and Newt are the only ones consistently against the mercantilism of the democrats (green energy, housing subsidies, automobile and wall street bailouts.) Herman and Newt are the only ones with sufficient foresight to see the disaster arising from government control of healthcare. And only Herman – not Newt – understand the real genius of Paul Ryan’s long-term budget plan. Conservatives see all of that, but pundits are easily distracted by the allegation of the week, the “squirrel syndrome.” Focus, man.
ragnar danneskjold
November 7th, 2011
4:19 pm
Dear Kyle, by your standards, Clarence Thomas should not be on the Supreme Court. By your standard, Robert Bork was not qualified for the Supreme Court. What, exactly, is your standard? If any leftist throws any allegation, no matter how specious, we revoke our support of the target of the smear?
ragnar danneskjold
November 7th, 2011
4:26 pm
Taranto got it right: “If the latest accusation against Herman Cain is true, he “is not guilty of sexual harassment. He is accused of having made a gross, dumb and reckless pass at a supporter during a low point in her life. . . . In other words, [Cain] took ‘no’ for an answer.”
“That quote is from Gloria Steinem, the big-time feminist, though of course the man she was defending wasn’t Herman Cain. It was Bill Clinton, after Kathleen Willey accused him of groping her in the Oval Office. “
Bart Abel
November 7th, 2011
4:43 pm
Ragnar,
A “reckless pass” is telling a non-subordinate woman that she has nice legs, as if it’s 1964, not reaching under her skirt for her crotch while pulling her head toward his crotch…purportedly in exchange for help finding a job.
You should know better than that.
JF McNamara
November 7th, 2011
4:53 pm
“You do want a job, don’t you?”
dan hollywood
November 7th, 2011
5:04 pm
I don’t know what to think. Now there are four who have come out. Will there be more women who say they were mistreated? I wonder how the voters in S. Carolina will react in their Primary???
Jefferson
November 7th, 2011
5:19 pm
So what are Cain’s chances, I say ZERO.
MarkV
November 7th, 2011
5:26 pm
I would not mind at all if Cain won the Republican nomination. It would make Obama’s reelection easy.
Kyle Wingfield
November 7th, 2011
5:35 pm
ragnar: I am predicting that many of the people who were giving Cain the benefit of the doubt will be taken aback by what they heard today. Will he recover? That’s another question. Cain will have to speak about this specific allegation — sorry, but a quick “not true” isn’t going to cut it here — and perhaps he will find a way to alleviate newly raised concerns. But I don’t perceive that Cain’s support was solid enough for him to take specific allegations from a woman with a face and a name without skipping a beat. Will I be proved wrong? We’ll see.
@@
November 7th, 2011
6:04 pm
Cain’s latest accuser comes forth on the elbow of Gloria Allred. Why?
She says it’s to protect other women. So what…the women he’s come in contact with since 1997 didn’t need her protection?
Gimme a break!
I Cain't Believe Cain
November 7th, 2011
6:05 pm
That lead among females may be the most surprising bit, in light of the allegations.
Shame on all of them. Are these females saying it is OK what Herman Cain is being accused of? What if it had been one of them? What if it had been their mother, sister, daughter, or friend; would it still be OK?
These females are HYPOCRITES. The GOP is filled with people who throw rocks and hand their hands.
Shame on all of you! Herman Cain is a predator. How many women do you need to confirm that he is a sexual predator?
Tommy Maddox
November 7th, 2011
6:07 pm
Well Sarah, while they don’t conduct too much foreign policy items in the Illinois State House, they do allow you to vote “Present” on a regular basis.
RW-(the original)
November 7th, 2011
6:23 pm
Anybody that is swayed by one of Gloria Allred’s stunts is too dumb to vote anyway, but I suspect Sharon Bialek will have a book deal by the end of the month. If she’s lucky she’ll even be a able to keep a few % of the advance form going straight to Gloria.
I Cain't Believe Cain
November 7th, 2011
6:26 pm
Kyle you say – If the allegations, and Cain’s poor response to them, are going to hurt him, it would appear it’ll take more than what we’ve heard so far.
What is it going to take? Is it going to take one of his supporters’ daughter, sister, mother, wife to be sexually harassed by Herman Cain? Or is it because it is someone else’s daughter, sister, mother, or wife?
Shame on all of you hypocrites! And the GOP is the party of christian values?
I DON’T THINK SO.
jconservative
November 7th, 2011
6:35 pm
UGA 1999 November 7th, 2011 12:13 pm
“jconservative…..I dont care what label Obama runs under…..he needs to go.”
I agree, Obama needs to go. But he will not go with Cain as the nominee.
Remember the independents decide all presidential elections.
Do you really believe that the independents who voted for a liberal Onama, re-elected a liberal George W Bush, who split on Bush/Gore and who re-elected Clinton, will actually vote for Cain?
Please!
MarkV
November 7th, 2011
6:41 pm
RW-(the original) @ 6:23 pm: “Anybody that is swayed by one of Gloria Allred’s stunts is too dumb to vote anyway, but I suspect Sharon Bialek will have a book deal by the end of the month. If she’s lucky she’ll even be a able to keep a few % of the advance form going straight to Gloria.”
And these are the people who attack people accusing Cain for lack of evidence.
Michael H. Smith
November 7th, 2011
6:45 pm
I am predicting that many of the people who were giving Cain the benefit of the doubt will be taken aback by what they heard today. Will he recover?
First part you are correct. Second part, Cain, sadly won’t recover in my opinion. His only hope was based on total complete honesty, Kyle. With a person now coming forth publically, in name and face, including details, the honesty element to this point that Mr. Cain has enjoyed is seriously challenged to the extent that the “ONUS” is now on him.
@@
November 7th, 2011
6:52 pm
Harwood said he did not know about the Cain allegation until Friday night, when Bialek told him she was going to go to New York. He said she didn’t come forward at the time of the alleged incident in 1997 because she wasn’t a Cain employee.
Harwood is her “…you know I have a boyfriend.”
Anyhoo….why not pursue sexual assault charges.
And why bother reading from a written transcript?
This one’s lookin’ like a real bimbo.
MarkV
November 7th, 2011
6:54 pm
@@ @6:52 pm: “This one’s lookin’ like a real bimbo.”
The usual tactic: Attack the victim.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 7th, 2011
7:00 pm
I asked Bruno Clinton for a job back when she was in ArKKKansas and she raped me.
Really.
And you think what Herman did was bad, imagine my suffering! I still feel icky. ew
I just forgot to tell anybody (-:
Would any of you like to be my lawyer?
josef
November 7th, 2011
7:01 pm
@@
Was just checking in to see if the latest exile from the Imam Torquemada’s had arrived here yet and saw that you’re in the house…
Miss you! (Him, not so much…)
Anyway, back to the fun…take care…
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 7th, 2011
7:06 pm
And I saw obozo with a farm animal too.
@@
November 7th, 2011
7:07 pm
MarkV:
This from The Daily Beast:
The sight of Cain’s latest accuser, whose flowing blonde hair dipped over one eye, not only personalizes what had been an abstract scandal but gives it an interracial aspect and places it firmly in an employment context.
Not sure what the interracial aspect has to do with it.
First she says he arranged for her to have a suite, then says he accosted her in the car…on a busy road?
Puhleeze.
BIMBO!
Sister Sarah
November 7th, 2011
7:14 pm
@Tommy dear Tommy. You have to learn to get away from the talking points; they make you look juvenile. Now, the fact was well established long ago that politicians use the ‘present’ vote for various reasons and some quite often. Let me clarify for you. A State level Representative even must have knowledge of the ISSUES and the ability to connect with a constituency to win ELECTION multiple times. What is it about that don’t you understand??? I know I know…it is just DIFFICULT for you to acknowledge the obvious, and that Obama is arguably one of the most savvy politicians this country has seen in probably the past 50 years. Whether you choose to admit it or not is your problem.
joe
November 7th, 2011
7:34 pm
I’d have tried to crank her too. Cain gets my vote for having exquisite tastes in babes. @@ is a dried up old hag who needs to stfu. Ditto rag and rw and that other idiot.
Cain 2012: A grassroots campaign to reach for the stars.
@@
November 7th, 2011
7:36 pm
josef:
Miss you! (Him, not so much…)
Can’t say the same about you and yours.
When it comes to free speech, I expect more than lip service. Can’t be selective with it either. You were quick to attack me but never a word about Bosch’s incessant “LIAR” accusations.
And just so you know…I’m able to post at jay’s. I CHOOSE not to.
MarkV
November 7th, 2011
7:52 pm
@@ @7:07 pm: “First she says he arranged for her to have a suite, then says he accosted her in the car…on a busy road? Puhleeze. BIMBO!”
You have shown not only a remarkable lack of common sense, but mainly a deplorable tendency to blame the victim, whom you know nothing about. In other word, your comments are disgusting.
I Cain't Believe Cain
November 7th, 2011
8:00 pm
To all of you GOP christian hypocrites who support Herman Cain the bible says:
“Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves.”
“Nothing is covered up that will not be revealed, or hidden that will not be known.”
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 7th, 2011
8:06 pm
ICBC- You may want to check out what the Good Book says about false witnesses, you hideous freak.
@@
November 7th, 2011
8:07 pm
MarkV:
In other word, your comments are disgusting.
Crystal Magnum (Duke Lacrosse accuser) could probably use your support. You’ll find her in a North Carolina prison. Go visit.
I Cain't Believe Cain
November 7th, 2011
8:10 pm
@I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin…
November 7th, 2011
8:06 pm
You made my point! HYPOCRITE!
MarkV
November 7th, 2011
8:11 pm
@@ @8:07 pm
You do not have to keep proving my point.
RW-(the original)
November 7th, 2011
8:12 pm
It’s nice to know that no matter how long one stays away Polly is right there to welcome you back.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 7th, 2011
8:33 pm
The bEagles beat a couple of dogs after losing four in a row and now all the media harpies think they are gonna win the Super Bowl.
heh
Gman
November 7th, 2011
8:40 pm
Herman “Silas” Cain wants to know, “Where all the white women at!”
@@
November 7th, 2011
9:06 pm
MarkV:
An intelligent woman would never allow Allred to represent her. Allred’s a pimp!
Bialek, a Chicagoan, had raised money for the restaurant association before being terminated in 1997, Allred said. When she lost her job, Bialek reached out to Cain for help.
“Mr. Cain instead decided to try to provide her with his idea of a stimulus package,” Allred said.
She (Allred) trivialized her client’s “tail” with that comment.
schnirt
stephen
November 7th, 2011
10:51 pm
10:52 pm Herman is self-herminated. see ya.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 7th, 2011
11:50 pm
Da Bears.
Scandal Celebrity Gossip
November 8th, 2011
11:09 am
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