Cain still leads the GOP field in Iowa (Updated)

UPDATED at 2:25 p.m.: Until a few minutes ago, Herman Cain could keep up his lead because of the lack of details about his alleged actions. All that may have ended with the press conference a new accuser, Sharon Bialek just gave. Now there’s a name and face to a woman who’s been willing to make her accusation very publicly, and very specifically. I have a feeling Cain’s poll numbers are about to take a serious hit.

ORIGINAL POST: So far, the reports of sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain have not cost him his lead in Iowa, which will kick off the GOP nomination process with its caucuses on Jan. 3.

Keep in mind as we go through these polls that the first story about Cain and the harassment allegations was published on the evening of Oct. 30.

Insider Advantage found Cain held a 15-point lead over Mitt Romney (30 percent to 15 percent). The poll was taken Nov. 3, four days after the story broke, and it shows that Cain almost doubled his lead from mid-October. Holding steady in third was Newt Gingrich with 12 percent. No one else was in double-digits. Caitlin Huey-Burns at Real Clear Politics notes:

Cain leads among each age group by double digits except for voters 65 and older, who back Romney over Cain, 25 percent to 14 percent. Cain also leads among minority groups. He holds a 17-point edge over Gingrich among male voters (Romney comes in third) and a 12-point lead over Romney among females (Gingrich places third).

That lead among females may be the most surprising bit, in light of the allegations.

Another pollster, JMC Enterprises, surveyed Iowans a day earlier and found a much closer race: a tie between Cain and Romney at 20 percent apiece, with Gingrich nipping at their heels with 16 percent; everyone else was at least 10 points further back. As far as I can tell, JMC had not polled Iowa recently. The pollster’s executive summary did not include cross-tabs for support of each candidate by gender, although it did find a narrow plurality of women thought the charges against Cain were “trumped up.” (H/t: Jim Geraghty)

If the allegations, and Cain’s poor response to them, are going to hurt him, it would appear it’ll take more than what we’ve heard so far. In Iowa, at least.

– By Kyle Wingfield

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146 comments Add your comment

Stonethrower

November 7th, 2011
11:21 am

Just like the Blues Brothers, Rick Perry says he’s on a “mission from God” to become the next president. Cain is a preacher so what is God gonna do, do a coin toss and decide who he is gonna back?

Call it like it is

November 7th, 2011
11:24 am

Don’t know who will end up going all the way, but would pay cash to see Newt and Obama in a debate. No access to the questions before hand, no telepromters, just those 2 with an independent table.

Ernest T. Bass

November 7th, 2011
11:24 am

Cain didn’t even know that China was already a nuclear power.

Sounds like a typical terribly uninformed Republican candidate who can fire up the terribly uninformed Republican party.

Ernest T. Bass

November 7th, 2011
11:25 am

Don’t know who will end up going all the way, but would pay cash to see Newt and Obama in a debate. No access to the questions before hand, no telepromters, just those 2 with an independent table.

As a proud Democrat I would pay to see that too.

Newt wouldn’t stand a chance.

arnold

November 7th, 2011
11:40 am

“although it did find a narrow plurality of women thought the charges against Cain were “trumped up.” People believe what they want to believe. I hope he is the standard bearer for the Republican Party.

Donna P.

November 7th, 2011
11:44 am

So which is worse? Having an alleged sexual harassment allegation against you or sitting in a church for 20 years where your preacher states “God damn America”? Or having an alleged sexual harassment allegation against you or being friends with a 1960’s radical who bombed federal buildings? Just wondering..

funny....

November 7th, 2011
11:45 am

didn’t michelle bachmann win something in iowa also? doesn’t bode well for cain it would appear….

roughrider

November 7th, 2011
11:46 am

Newt wants everyone to keep sending in donations so he and his new wife can continue to live the high life.

Tom(Independent)

November 7th, 2011
11:48 am

I read where Gloria Allred is coming forward with another woman(4th, I think) concerning sexual harrassment complaints toward Herman Cain. I always thought that women enjoyed flirting and having males pay attention to them, of course when they say NOT INTERESTED, that is the end of it, period!! If any of these allegations are true, when did Herman find any time to work? Just askin? Normally when Gloria Allred is involved it is normally about getting some money, no matter if it is the truth or not!

Tom(Independent)

November 7th, 2011
11:50 am

Would love to see Newt in a serious debate with Obama?

arnold

November 7th, 2011
11:50 am

“A fourth woman alleging that GOP presidential front-runner Herman Cain sexually harassed her will be detailing the experience during a press conference Monday afternoon in New York City, RadarOnline is reporting. The is represented by famed attorney Gloria Allred”…Yahoo News

allentown

November 7th, 2011
11:59 am

Newt in a serious debate?// haha
Newt is all about showing us how smart he is.
Anyone who equates the process of buying a burger from mcdonald to receiving health care is nuts!

jconservative

November 7th, 2011
12:00 pm

It appears that the Republican base is glued to Ideology. See Greece.

With much of the Democratic base glued to Ideology we are left with both parties looking for the purest of the pure.

What’s the old saying, “Be careful of what you ask for.”

In 1964 the Republicans nominated a Pure Conservative, Goldwater, and got trounced.

So in 1968 Republicans tried a more liberal Nixon and won 2 elections.

In 1980 the Republicans nominated a Pure Conservative, Reagan, and won the election.
Unfortunately, the day after his inauguration Reagan became a committed Big Government Liberal and remained that way throughout his administration. Voters voted for a Conservative and re-elected a liberal.

Same with Bush 43, claimed to be conservative but ended up governing as a liberal. But was re-elected.

Another old saying, “You can’t judge a book by looking at the cover.”

UGA 1999

November 7th, 2011
12:13 pm

jconservative…..I dont care what label Obama runs under…..he needs to go.

DC

November 7th, 2011
12:13 pm

Stupid Americans…don’t they realize that they are supposed to vote the way the Mainstream Media (haha) tells them to?

MARK

November 7th, 2011
12:14 pm

Obama…… And over the last 15 months we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states; I think one left to go.”

Just another uninformed socialist

The Ruthless Way

November 7th, 2011
12:29 pm

Ernest T. Bass – I’m not a fan of Newt per se, but Newt would wipe his @$$ with Obama in a debate. He would run circles around that fool with no teleprompters and no access to questions before hand. So be happy waving that democratic flag high and annointing the likes of a pelosi or reid or obama. They are all idiots and you sir fit right in with that crowd.

Terrence

November 7th, 2011
12:31 pm

When i see a candidate who doesn’t know how to play the political game, I’m impressed.

Jefferson

November 7th, 2011
12:37 pm

Newt is a liar with no personal integretiy, the perfect GOP guy huh?

DJ Sniper

November 7th, 2011
12:39 pm

First of all, wasn’t it already said that Obama was only 9 when Ayers did his dirty work? Also, if we’re going to talk about preachers, let’s talk about Rick Perry’s preacher who made those comments about Mormons. Lastly, can we please put the socialist tag to bed?

Welcome to the Occupation

November 7th, 2011
12:43 pm

And then there were four

A fourth woman will come forward later today and accuse Republican presidential frontrunner Herman Cain of sexual harassment, according to attorney Gloria Allred.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/fourth-woman-accuses-herman-cain-sexual-harassment/story?id=14896935#.TrgYdvSP4Xw

The Goods

November 7th, 2011
12:43 pm

@Earnest T. You are crazy if you don’t realize that Obama would get shelled in a debate against Newt. That fool is so far in over his head that he can’t think straight. Herman Cain would school him too! 15 trillion in debt and 9.1% unemployment. Nuff said! Newt/Cain or Cain/Newt in 2012!

UGA 1999

November 7th, 2011
12:46 pm

Jefferson….are you referring to Obama or Clinton?

Welcome to the Occupation

November 7th, 2011
12:47 pm

Donna P.: “So which is worse? Having an alleged sexual harassment allegation against you or sitting in a church for 20 years where your preacher states “God damn America”? Or having an alleged sexual harassment allegation against you or being friends with a 1960’s radical who bombed federal buildings?”

Neither is worse.

Cain’s sexual harassment charges are probably overblown. In some ways he’s just engaging in behavior that was very accepted for members of his generation.

And Obama’s pastor was absolutely right in his “God damn America!” words. And the 60s radical may have been misguided in his tactics, but he was basically responding to real issues of justice.

BW

November 7th, 2011
12:49 pm

Oh please please allow him to win the nomination!!

UGA 1999

November 7th, 2011
12:50 pm

Welcome….wow you are clueless…..neither is worse?? How warped are you?

Jefferson

November 7th, 2011
12:53 pm

The GOP won’t support Cain and they know Romney is a moderate just waiting to break to the left as soon as he is the nominee. Either one is not a good choice.

UGA 1999

November 7th, 2011
12:54 pm

Jefferson….sounds like the dems should vote for Romney then…..thanks.

Jefferson

November 7th, 2011
12:58 pm

They will in the primary.

Welcome to the Occupation

November 7th, 2011
12:58 pm

UGA 1999: “Welcome….wow you are clueless…..neither is worse?? How warped are you?”

On the contrary. I’m clued into the fact that the poster above was setting up a false alternative, between Obama and Herman Cain and Jeremiah Wright and so forth. Which is a sham.

In a sense both the sexual harassment charges against Cain and the trumped up charges about so-called “radical” elements infiltrating Obama’s inner circle (if only!) are a sham, meant to draw attention away from the policy implications of these politicians and keep it neutralized in distracting, irrelevant spectacles. Just more bread and circus for a nation whose ruling elite is bankrupt, completely out of ideas.

The Truth

November 7th, 2011
1:00 pm

Herman Cain: “Would you like to come up to my hotel room for some 9,9,9?”

Bart Abel

November 7th, 2011
1:00 pm

The irony here is amazing.

The same people who claim to be the “family values” crowd, who claim to be Tea Party populists, who complained about Obama’s “lack of experience” are now supporting a likely sexual harasser, former lobbyist/talk radio host, who never even sat on a school board or city council. The same people who complain that their taxes are too high are supporting a guy who, unless you’re making a few hundred thousand a year, promises to raise your taxes by hundreds, if not thousands of dollars with his 999 plan– http://news.yahoo.com/study-cain-tax-plan-raises-taxes-84-percent-205614885.html

I don’t blame people for supporting who they want to support because they believe in their proposals and ideology. But these are the same people who will tell you that you shouldn’t support President Clinton or President Obama or whomever for reasons that are entirely manufactured and have zero to do with their real reasons behind their disgust for Democratic and centrist Republican politicians.

I’ve also been watching Newt Gingrich slowly but steadily rise in the polls. As all Republican primary voters know, Gingrich is a serial-adulterer who has been married three times. Yet, somehow, when Gingrich stands at the podium and talks about “our Creator”, his audience shakes their collective head in praise while Gingrich is, to anybody who pays attention, most definitely taking the Lord’s name in vain with his unabashed hypocrisy.

Aquagirl

November 7th, 2011
1:03 pm

Newt/Cain or Cain/Newt in 2012!

Hope you handle disappointment well.

@@

November 7th, 2011
1:04 pm

Gloria Allred enters the fray!!??!!

Somebody cue Greta.

UGA 1999

November 7th, 2011
1:06 pm

Welcome…..is that your way of debating facts? Calling them a “sham”? Tell me how the weather in fairytale land is today!

UGA 1999

November 7th, 2011
1:06 pm

Aquagirl….we have all handled disappointment fine over the past two and a half years!

Road Scholar

November 7th, 2011
1:07 pm

The Goods:”That fool is so far in over his head…”

That “fool” is still alot smarter than you!

The Ruthless Way

November 7th, 2011
1:14 pm

Bart Abel – Dude the same could be said for the left as well. You can pick apart any political candidate because they are in fact human and as you know all humans are imperfect. There are hypocrites on both sides of the aisle. There is plenty of irony to be had from the left. You can hate on Mister Cains 9-9-9 plan all you want, but at least it taxes everyone in this country and not just particular people. Why should I bust my arse day in and day out to help give someone else a free ride with my tax money? At least the 9-9-9 plan will help move that in the right direction. I do have some concern over the plan though. I would worry about the 9-9-9 plan turning into the 15-15-15 plan with the way congress is and how it seems the parties take turns in power almost every other election. But as far as the so called “Tea Party” followers and the hypocricy….get off your high horse! I could write a book on the hypocricy of the left and its “followers”

Filter

November 7th, 2011
1:16 pm

It’s sad to see the GOP not realize what this mess is doing to their own cause. This is same group that spent years and untold millions investigating Bill Clinton with nothing more to show for it than a tryst with an intern. But still they slogged forward and spent my money to impeach the man in a symbolic move bereft entirely of any real impact. A Pyrrhic victory won with my money.

And yet here we are, a few years later with not one, not two, not three, but FOUR women saying that Cain sexually harassed them and the same bunch wants everyone else to believe that:
1) This is much ado about nothing, that all four of these women are lying and that the NRA paid them to avoid legal fees involved in a fight.
2) This is all a creation of the big ole bad librul media
3) The reason this is all coming up is because the Democrats are so afraid of Cain that they have enlisted said big old bad librul media to smear Cain out of the race.

The reality is that this is a news story that is worthy of coverage, particularly by the standards set by the GOP during the Clinton years. It should be reported and the electorate should be allowed to decide whom they believe. If the evidence shows he did it, then let the chips fall. If the evidence shows he did not then nothing but good things would come from the situation as it would validate the claims in 1, 2 and 3.

Any other course of action exacerbates the already growing image of the hypocrisy of the right. (Yes, I know, the left is filled with hypocrites as well but that is all the more reason to take the high road here.)

Sister Sarah

November 7th, 2011
1:16 pm

Well @Call…last time I checked debates are done without teleprompters and no prior knowledge of questions. President Obama faired well in presidential debates against political heavyweights. In fact, I think he shocked most with his grasp on the issues. Are you suggesting Newt is that much smarter than the rest? Or are you just another who buys into his mythical “brilliant mind”??

yuzeyurbrane

November 7th, 2011
1:16 pm

It does not surprise me that Cain’s sexual harassment problems probably helps him with large segments of Republican primary voters, especially those who could not see sexual harassment if it struck them between the eyes.

UGA 1999

November 7th, 2011
1:18 pm

yuzeyurbrane….please post the facts about the Cain harrassment case?

UGA 1999

November 7th, 2011
1:19 pm

Filter…
1) This is much ado about nothing, that all four of these women are lying and that the NRA paid them to avoid legal fees involved in a fight.
2) This is all a creation of the big ole bad librul media
3) The reason this is all coming up is because the Democrats are so afraid of Cain that they have enlisted said big old bad librul media to smear Cain out of the race.

You got it! Great job!

.

Welcome to the Occupation

November 7th, 2011
1:23 pm

UGA 1999: “shallow minds talk about people, average minds about events, and great minds about ideas”

How does that saying go, something like “shallow minds talk about people, average minds about events, and great minds about ideas” ?

The real issues raised by Herman Cain’s candidacy have more to do with the fact that the man can’t be bothered to do even the most basic homework about the world, and even seems proud of his ignorance. He obviously doesn’t know the first thing about the world. At least Donald Trump had had actual dealings with China and had some basis in experience for his demagogic oversimplifications.

The other disturbing thing about the phenomenon Cain represents — also revealed in Trump’s brief rise and fall — is the turn of a corrupted political system towards would-be demagogues who are really more clowns bringing cheap entertainment than actual policy solutions.

This article here at New Republic is on the right track:

Where Cain differs from past populists, however, is in the broader sweep. His whole platform is gestural rather than systematic, unbothered by inconsistency. Whereas traditional populists at least propose a nexus between their policies and the problems of the world, Cain’s politics seem fundamentally dishonest. Indeed, his main claim is not that things will work better under his administration—he cannot even be bothered to explain how his 9-9-9 tax plan would work—but that they will be simpler.

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/97115/herman-cain-populist-huey-long-joseph-mccarthy

The Great and Powerful Community Organizer

November 7th, 2011
1:26 pm

I’ve traveled to all the 57 states…even discussed the issue concerning the “inhalator” and the kid in the hospital, and passed the $800 Billion Stimulus Bill in which I stated Unemployment will NOT go over 8%. What’s the problem, racists?

UGA 1999

November 7th, 2011
1:27 pm

Welcome……I dont think he is running or will be running based on his foreign policies. DId he ever say that?

UGA 1999

November 7th, 2011
1:27 pm

The Great…..NICE!

My name is Insanity, Obama 2012

November 7th, 2011
1:32 pm

Don’t forget, insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result. Obama 2012!

The Ruthless Way

November 7th, 2011
1:32 pm

Welcome – I dont think the New Republic is the best source for an ubiased story. Just sayn. Also I have a question for you…..what exactly was Obama running on? What major experience did he possess? What did he do while he was in office? What makes him better than say a Herman Cain?

Mark T

November 7th, 2011
1:32 pm

Filter..

And yet here we are, a few years later with not one, not two, not three, but FOUR women saying that Cain sexually harassed them and the same bunch wants everyone else to believe that:

And i suppose you believe that Justin Bieber knocked up that girl too…
Go watch Jerry Springer child!