Obama’s jobs plan: $447 billion for one decent month of employment growth
The headline is “Obama Jobs Plan May Prevent 2012 Recession.” But the story Bloomberg published, based on its survey of economists about the president’s $447 billion proposal, is best summarized by the second paragraph:
The legislation, submitted to Congress this month, would increase gross domestic product by 0.6 percent next year and add or keep 275,000 workers on payrolls, the median estimates in the survey of 34 economists showed. The program would also lower the jobless rate by 0.2 percentage point in 2012, economists said.
For those keeping score at home, that’s a “jobs plan” that costs more than $1.6 million per job. If the president wants to spend taxpayer dollars to provoke demand-side job creation, he would be better off holding a lottery and giving $10,000 apiece to 45 million people.
Worse, the Economic Policy Institute earlier this year estimated it would take job growth of 285,000 per month, every month for the next five years, for the economy to return to the pre-recession unemployment rate. That was after February’s job-growth numbers came out; job growth has come in well below 285,000 every month since then. (It was zero in August, in case you forgot.)
So, President Obama wants to spend $447 billion to speed up the recovery process by one month. Or, rather, the better part of one month.
The White House, according to Bloomberg, prefers to cite economists who say the plan would boost hiring by 1 million. But for every economist in the survey that says the plan would perform that well, there’s another who says it won’t produce any net new jobs. [This sentence has been edited from the original; see explanation in my comment at 11:20 a.m. -- KW]
Oh, and that line about the plan keeping us out of a recession next year? If 0.6 percent of GDP is the difference between being in a recession and staying out of one, we’re in for a rough 2012.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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163 comments Add your comment
Uncle Jed
September 28th, 2011
1:55 pm
The group has a limited number of $1,000 tickets available for $250.
++++++++++++++++
It just struck me that there is an illustrative lesson in liberal economics to be learned from the above pull quote: If one has a limited supply, why slash the price, especially when the stated objective is to raise revenue? It must be the need to make it look better than reality. Solyndra comes to mind.
Road worker
September 28th, 2011
1:57 pm
Road Scholar…Illinois has got Georgia beat hands down on unemployment and taxes. Right of ways only exist for new construction. We can’t seem to even get the old roads fixed. Not even grind and repave. I could draw the plans up on a napkin. Our wonderful Dem Governor passed a massive tax increase (maybe you heard of it, 45-66% increase) and the money went into public sector pensions. Our operator local has 400 out of 600 on the list waiting for work. Tax increases on the wealthy in Illinois haven’t done a damn thing for us, but wait we do have a college administrator that recieves $365,000 per year pension.
Bart Abel
September 28th, 2011
1:57 pm
I’m a little surprised, Kyle, that you didn’t correct the “net new jobs” phrase when you were making your corrections. You’ve since agreed that this isn’t what Bloomberg reported.
Also, given that the survey figures are specific to 2012 and 2013, it actually would be absurd to assert that Obama is proposing a jobs plan that destroys precisely as many jobs as it creates during 2012 and 2013, when the proposed pay-fors would be spread out over a decade.
Seriously, the survey results show little to no jobs saved or created defy basic arithmetic. Again, this survey isn’t credible.
UGA 1999
September 28th, 2011
2:02 pm
Uncle Jed….Amen
JDW
September 28th, 2011
2:04 pm
@Kyle, who wrote…”Bastiat figured this out a long time before you or I came along”
If we were talking windows or if we were talking shifting dollars from one IMMEDIATE purpose to another I would agree with you that Bastiat might apply in this case. However he does not in this specific case because the money that is to be spent is for all intents and purposes “borrowed”. The impact of the “window” will not be felt until after the two years in question when The Law will prevail. If the economists in question used Bastiat as their foundation for zero they have overstepped the timeframe of the exercise.
Now if you want to get right down to a macro view, Bastiat is the very foundation of why Reagan, Bush 1, Bush 2/Cheney were so wrong regarding the importance of deficits. We are paying for those “broken windows” today.
UGA 1999
September 28th, 2011
2:05 pm
JDW….so what about the record deficit that Obama has accumulated?
USMC
September 28th, 2011
2:05 pm
“Obama’s jobs plan: $447 billion for one decent month of employment growth”–Kyle
Comrade Obama has got to be the dumbest President in our history; while also blinded by ideology.
Unbelievable
Streetracer
September 28th, 2011
2:08 pm
Road Worker @ 1:57 – When was the last time you drove on I-57 from I-24 to Mount Vernon? If you think that Illinois does a better job with roads you really should drive that stretch. In December, it pretty much sucked compared to the rest of the route from Atlanta to Omaha.
USMC
September 28th, 2011
2:08 pm
“You critics best bite your fingers or else Kyle will whip out proof that the Bush tax cuts created all those jobs that we don’t have.”–Now with 10% more flavor
Proof that WELFARE cheese creates brain damage. Typical Socialist Blather.
Dusty
September 28th, 2011
2:09 pm
Thank you, Kyle, for honest journalism. I don’t find any twists or turns in your evaluations.
As to the president’s job plan, is it possible he does not know that spending $447 billion will add that much to the deficit that is sinking us?
Does he really think that a “job plan” can take immediate effect on an economy?
Considering those two questions leaves me with only one answer. The president does not know what he is doing and has no common sense. His “inspiring” speeches now only remind us that they must end in the next election or the economy will be nothing but a huge Walmart store. Everything cheap but no customers with money and the help on minimum wage while thousands line up outside looking for work.
It is a picture of the future with Prez Obama. No money, no jobs, no inspiration, just DEBT!.
JDW
September 28th, 2011
2:13 pm
@Streetracer
A blind man knows he cannot see, and is glad to be led, though it be by a dog; but he that is blind in his understanding, which is the worst blindness of all, believes he sees as the best, and scorns a guide.
-Samuel Butler
Streetracer
September 28th, 2011
2:14 pm
Dusty @ 2:09 – Are you all knowing? ( Can’t spell “omnisient” without looking it up). Kind of seems to me that maybe you are. At least it seems to be where we are headed.
JDW
September 28th, 2011
2:18 pm
@UGA1999…”so what about the record deficit that Obama has accumulated?”
Actually Duhbya holds the deficit record and most of what has happened since has been cleaning up that mess. BTW if you go back and read what I have posted you will find that I believe Obama should have moved faster to clean up the mess, however turning the responsibility for a solution over to those that created the problem seems a bit shortsighted to me.
ODD OWL
September 28th, 2011
2:20 pm
The Bush/Cheney tax cuts for the rich ====> 3 trillion dollars… The number of jobs created by the rich, the elite and their coporate bosses in 8 years of Bush/Cheney ====> 3 million… Democrats have made the future of America their priority… The Republicans have made the future of America their option…
EJ Moosa
September 28th, 2011
2:26 pm
The velocity of money spent via the government is LOWER than the velocity of money overall. Therefore the logic that giving it away to people that spend it stimulates the economy is a false belief and wrong.
UGA 1999
September 28th, 2011
2:30 pm
JDW….read again. To date….thus far into his presidency Obama wins!
Typical
September 28th, 2011
2:44 pm
Typical Republican response Kyle. Obama proposes a jobs bill, so instead of working with Obama to improve, the Republicans throw up their hands and dismiss it altogether.
When will the Republicans in Congress be submitting their jobs bill Kyle? Why has it been 2 years, and still the Republican-led House has NOT DONE A !#@) THING about jobs Kyle?
UGA 1999
September 28th, 2011
2:45 pm
Typical….about the same time Obama submits his budget bill…..haha.
UGA 1999
September 28th, 2011
2:49 pm
Can some democrat on this blog please tell me what Obama is going to run on this time around? Hope and Change is not going to work…..
Typical
September 28th, 2011
2:53 pm
Kyle Wingfield
September 28th, 2011
10:11 am
Bart: Fine, so they would “add or keep” zero. Does that really make you feel better? As for the part about the bill including tax cuts: I’ve long said not all tax cuts are created equal from an economic perspective.
Quit the spin (”tax cuts not created equal”) and just say what your thinking Kyle: $175 billion payroll tax cuts proposed in the Obama plan are bad because they don’t go to the ultra-wealthy and instead are targeted to the middle and lower income workers.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 28th, 2011
2:55 pm
Now with Ten Percent More Flavor: Those Bush tax cuts sure created a lot of jobs.
———-
Yes, they did. Enough to keep unemployment below 8%, and in fact between 4-6% for most of Bush’s term.
Too bad your incompetent Idiot Messiah blew it.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 28th, 2011
2:59 pm
“$175 billion payroll tax cuts proposed in the Obama plan”
——–
Your Idiot Messiah’s payroll tax cut has failed to create any jobs and should be ended.
Streetracer
September 28th, 2011
3:09 pm
Typical @ 2:53 – Money that goes to the ultra-wealthy is more likely to create demand for goods and services in this economy than money to middle and lower income workers. Why? Because most middle and lower income workers are real uncertain about the future, so any extra we get goes to pay down debt or gets put in the bank. It doesn’t go to buying things that would create demand for more jobs. At least that is the way I, and those I know, act.
Typical
September 28th, 2011
3:16 pm
Another blog, another round of disingenuous numbers from Lil’ Barry Blowhard.
Bush lead us from an unemployment rate of 4.2% up to 7.8%.
Bush also stood by as the rate of GDP declined from 2004 (3.6%) through 2009 (-2.6%).
UGA 1999
September 28th, 2011
3:21 pm
Typical….and Obama has watched as unemployment has gone from 7.8 to 9.2%….great work.
Obama also watched as our credit rating was lowered to AA….nice.
buck@gon
September 28th, 2011
3:32 pm
Dear Kyle’s disingenuousness knows no bounds,
Once again you present us with a short, poorly conceived article citing cherry picked stats that do nothing but obfuscate. Here’s a suggestion: instead of baseless attacks, why not use your brilliant economic awesomeness to posit how you would fix the economy if you were Prez? And I’d like something beyond the standard vacuous platitudes of no taxes, no regs and no govt. I’d like specifics and data to show why your plan would work.
LoL!
Do you read what you write? Really! This is good stuff. Yes, if you want someone telling you just what you want to hear go to DailyKos, please, and leave us alone from your absurd requests.
buck@gon
September 28th, 2011
3:34 pm
Kyle,
Please tell us all what you think, whether or not it is what the above obtuse, puerile and cliched jerk “knows no bounds” wants you to hear.
Good article, by the way.
Just FYI, I think you don’t have to write such articles as your post above because the obvious answer to Obama’s proposals these days, is simply “duh! We ALL know it won’t work.” I think it’s better to start heaping derision on Obama now that his approval is heading straight for 25%. The media would do it for Bush, so let’s pile on!
These liberals whining on your blog aren’t even good for decoration. They remind me of grafitti in a public school bathroom–witless, brainless and meaningless; probably tinged with a lot of repressed adolescent sexuality too.
HDB
September 28th, 2011
3:38 pm
Lil’ Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 28th, 2011
2:55 pm
It depends of which area of the nation you speak! Since unemployment is a LAGGING indicator, the results of the Bush presidency carry over from 6-36 months! For one who was adversely affected by Bushian policy, I know of many who LOST employment and wealth in the Bush years…and have YET to recover!! It’s a recession when someone else loses a job; it’s a depression when it’s you!! I had two depressions during the Bush Years…..and I know of many who have YET to find a job after losing theirs during the Bush years!! Your game isn’t the same for everyone!!
WOW
September 28th, 2011
3:46 pm
Carlosgvv…you are still an idiot
The Real Fletch
September 28th, 2011
3:46 pm
Wait, how can you all look at Stimulus III – Now with Slightly Different Wrinkles and think it could possibly work? Please stop citing right wing voodoo when the president says ‘its paid for, 100%’ when that claim is based on the potential additional findings of a committee that hasn’t been formed yet.
Sorry yall, this is pretty straight forward. We have been here before and it didn’t work. Math has a right wing bias.
FDRWannaBe
September 28th, 2011
4:12 pm
Excuse me Mr President but of all the idiot advisors that you have can’t someone come up with an original idea to lower unemployment?…
This admi is so out of touch with Americans…building bridges and roads when the Great Depression was in place made SENSE since the work force of America was primarily skilled labor…today the unemployed in a 3 piece suit who studied finance isn’t going to operate a bulldozer..we need job creation ACROSS the board not ONLY in construction…we need to create the Wal Mart and Apple of tomorrow by helping small businesses expand and hire…
Good luck with the copy of the FDR handbook…maybe you can employ someone to blow the dust off of it!
LookFoward
September 28th, 2011
4:14 pm
Can we please stop looking into the past of the “let’s blame bush game” and look to the future of “anyone with a brain throw us a lifeline to get back to the land of opportunity?”
Roadrunner
September 28th, 2011
4:15 pm
Most agree that the $1,000,000,000,000 (1 Trillion) dollars in the first stimulus created almost no long term jobs. Once the money was spent the temporary jobs evaporated. Why do we think that spending 1/2 that much again will be more successful? If anyone is serious about creating lasting jobs in the U.S. we have to rebuild many of the industries here whose jobs have already moved overseas. These are the jobs that we’re now paying the price for having lost. They say the gap between the haves & have nots has continued to grow and its the loss of these high paying manufacturing jobs that has caused much of this gap. I’m told these jobs are gone forever, but why is that so? Are we incapable of producing anything tangible in this country again? God help us if we ever get in another protracted war with virtually no industrial base to fall back on. So if Obama or anyone else wants to really fix this issue, do whatever has to be done to bring most of these jobs back to our shores or you’re just spinning your wheels and spending our money….
Republicans Are Idiots
September 28th, 2011
4:23 pm
In 2004, the Republican Bush administration flew nearly 12 billion dollars in shrink-wrapped $100 bills into Iraq, then distributed the cash with no proper control over who was receiving it and how it was being spent. How’s that Republican stimulus workin’ for ya…
Streetracer
September 28th, 2011
5:03 pm
Republicans etc @ 4:23 – I keep hearing about that, but noone so far has posted a credible source that I’ve seen. Do you have one?
BTW: 12 billion is less than 3% 0f 447 billion. Is there really a valid cost comparison?
@@
September 28th, 2011
5:18 pm
For those keeping score at home, that’s a “jobs plan” that costs more than $1.6 million per job.
Obama, skimming off the top. It’s the Chicago way. “Momo” Obama?
MoMoney…MoMoney…MoMoney
Gm
September 28th, 2011
5:21 pm
Please tell me Kyle what jobs bills have the rep party passed? what ideas have they had, at least when Dem were in the house they pass something, did it work completely? no, but at least they tried something these idiots have been in the house for 2 years and the only thing they have done is block the President for trying to do something.
This is why the tea party people are the worst idiots this nation ever seen, they are so bent on trying to destroy the President they are taking the rest of the nation to the toliet, these are not Americans these are in house terrorist.
CazLand
September 28th, 2011
5:27 pm
It’s oh so wonderfull to spend others hard earned money on failed policies is’nt it libs. Reduce debt by creating more debt has worked for decades right?……………………NOT. How bout reduce/stop the spending without monies to support, reduce or eliminate the freebies (personal & corporate) and rid ourselves of the IRS by implementing the fair tax.
Lil' Barry Bailout
September 28th, 2011
6:10 pm
Typical: Bush lead us from an unemployment rate of 4.2% up to 7.8%
———————
Our President Bush got his tax cuts implemented in 2003, and unemployment declined in the next several years, while revenue increased. And your Idiot Messiah would kill to get unemployment back down to the highest it ever was under President Bush. Unemployment during the Obozo regime has been higher every month than it was in ANY month of President Bush’s eight years.
Typical
September 28th, 2011
6:19 pm
The Real Fletch
September 28th, 2011
3:46 pm
Wait, how can you all look at Stimulus III – Now with Slightly Different Wrinkles and think it could possibly work? Please stop citing right wing voodoo when the president says ‘its paid for, 100%’ when that claim is based on the potential additional findings of a committee that hasn’t been formed yet.
Wrong. Flat out wrong. The Aug. 2011 unemployment rate for college grads is 4.3% For those who have high school diploma it is 9.6%. For those without high school diploma it is 14.3%. Building infrastructure is not only good for the segment of the population hurting worst, it is good for American Business to have top notch ways to move goods. And look at those numbers — if you have a good education, you can weather the recession. So why do Repubs want to cut education budgets?
Waheema
September 28th, 2011
6:20 pm
Even if Obama’s jobs plan was a half a trillion dollars for one month’s job growth, it would be better than his last “stimulus” which was .8 trillion and nearly killed the economy. Of course Obama is so surrounded by academic ideologues that his more-of-the-same liberal nonsense won’t work at all. How long are we going to let this amateur run the country?
Lil' Barry Bailout
September 28th, 2011
6:27 pm
How long are we going to let this amateur run the country?
——————————-
We took a big step towards him NOT running the country last November. His wasteful, obscene spending bills will go nowhere thanks to the Republicans in the House.
We finish the job in November 2012.
Typical
September 28th, 2011
6:28 pm
Lil’ Barry Bailout
September 28th, 2011
6:10 pm
Typical: Bush lead us from an unemployment rate of 4.2% up to 7.8%
———————
*Our President Bush got his tax cuts implemented in 2003, and unemployment declined in the next several years, while revenue increased.*
US GDP Growth Rates by year:
2000: 4.2%
2001: 1.1%
2002: 1.8%
2003: 2.5%
2004: 3.6%
2005: 3.1%
2006: 2.7%
2007: 1.9%
2008: 0%
2009: -2.6%
Yeah, those Bush tax cuts did us wonders. We got 2 years of robust growth for 10 years of unfunded debt. It’s pretty obvious what those tax cuts and unfunded wars did to this country.
marko
September 28th, 2011
6:50 pm
The Republican plan seems to be blame Obama for everything. I think I understand how they feel. Black folks cleaned up white folks messes a lot faster in the good old days. But then again white folks weren’t so messy in the good old days.
Dusty
September 28th, 2011
7:17 pm
Marko,
Can you get it in your head that almost every citizen in American is losing something in this economic downfall? Can you understand that bigotry is not the problem in America except with people like you?
It is the economy! Get it Jobs! Debt! Americans voted for Prez Obama. They don’t care about his skin color but they do care about his policies. Get it? They don’t care for the way he is presiding over this country.
Take your prejudice and save it for Halloween. That’s when the scary stuff shows up.
mountain man
September 28th, 2011
7:19 pm
The only way the President could propose $449 billion extra spending is to provide it in a tax decrease for the wealthy. We know that would not create any jobs.
saywhat?
September 28th, 2011
7:20 pm
To Kyle’s credit, as his “candidate J” article submission proves, he has been consistent from day one in saying that not all tax breaks are created equal. Unfortunately, he has also been consistently wrong as to which tax breaks are more effective in stimulating the economy. But hey, at least he is batting .500.
mountain man
September 28th, 2011
7:20 pm
propose $449 billion in extra spending and only add or retain 275,000 jobs
Michael H. Smith
September 28th, 2011
7:42 pm
Oh wonerful (sic), back to saving, instead of creating.
Keeping, instead of adding? Whoopee a new phrase, how impressive.
Let’s all play the re-word it game and remember kiddies but only the words can change the meanings must remain exactly the same.
In dear mm,mm,mm… leader’s case the sum of the game remains “ZERObama!”
Lil' Barry Bailout
September 28th, 2011
8:59 pm
Typical: Yeah, those Bush tax cuts did us wonders. We got 2 years of robust growth for 10 years of unfunded debt.
——————————
Yes, they did. Revenues went up. Unemployment went down. And guess what never happened during our President Bush’s eight years? 9% unemployment, $1.5 trillion annual deficits, and record levels of poverty and food stamp parasitism.
How Obozo blew the recovery he inherited is beyond comprehension.
Idiot Messiah: Fail.