GOP debate recap: Danger time for Rick Perry
If you are inclined to think someone other than Barack Obama should be president as night falls on the 20th of January 2013, and if you have seen the many opinion polls showing Rick Perry leading the Republican field, and if you watched Thursday night’s GOP debate, then some version of this scene has to be creeping in your head, and keeping you up at night:
It’s autumn 2012. The race between Obama and Perry is running neck and neck. Perry jumped out to a lead of several percentage points after finally defeating Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination, in large part because the economy is still stagnant and the Republican base is energized. But Obama has climbed back into a statistical tie and is making his challenger earn the win, because that’s what incumbent presidents do.
The two candidates are appearing in their first head-to-head, televised debate. The great middle of the American public is tuning in, only now beginning to decide who to pick: the current guy, whose performance hasn’t really wowed them and might have even ticked them off a bit, or the other guy, about whom they’ve read a few headlines but not much of substance.
The debate begins, and it hardly matters what Perry is saying — because the way he’s saying it is demanding all attention. He has a slight smirk on his face as he prepares to deliver the one-liners written down for him…which he nevertheless proceeds to stumble over. He avoids eye contact with Obama. If he doesn’t play offense well, he sure doesn’t play defense well, either — and he’s even worse at trying to change the subject. Obama seems calm and reassuring.
The great middle of the American public squirms on their couches listening to Perry. They’re not even sure what he said once the debate is over. But they just have a hard time imagining him saying anything that sounds good standing on a stage next to Vladimir Putin, or what’s-his-name from China.
The debate ends, and even Frank Luntz can’t conjure a pro-Perry response from a Fox News focus group. Oh, the poll numbers tomorrow…
***
Seriously, folks, I thought it was that bad for Perry on Thursday night. This was his third debate in three weeks, and he doesn’t seem to have gotten much better. Debating is but one skill, and it arguably isn’t one of the 20 or even 50 most important skills a president should possess. But it’s definitely one of the top couple of skills a presidential candidate must possess.
The 2012 election is one that conservatives view as absolutely vital. And they can’t stomach the prospect of picking a nominee whom Obama — a man who has campaigned for just about every losing candidate in America the last two years, and whose speeches on behalf of any given policy tend to lessen popular support for that policy — could pick apart on stage like Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense playing against a high-school defense.
As I’ve already noted, it hardly even mattered what Perry was actually saying. However, I’d note that, on the answers he gave most articulately — about illegal immigration and the HPV vaccine — he was defending positions with which a great many Republican primary voters are not going to agree. (And, in the case of the HPV answer, offering a rationale that may not be true.) He was beaten up at times by Rick Santorum, last seen getting pummeled in his Senate re-election bid. He was consistently outmatched by Romney, even though Romney managed to make one of the dumbest statements anyone could make in a debate: “There are a lot of reasons not to elect me.” (Think that won’t end up in an advertisement or 20 in the coming months?)
At one point, he talked about wanting to “mate up” Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain (in response to a question about which other contender he’d like to have as a running mate).
It was a bad night for the Texan.
Can he still win? Yes, of course. Even against Obama? Yes.
But he’ll have to give some performances that put this one well into the recesses of the minds of voters and, especially, the Republican bigwigs who, before they trust him with their donations and endorsements, will need reassurance that they won’t end up watching the aforementioned scene on a stage next autumn.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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152 comments Add your comment
larry.333
September 23rd, 2011
12:04 pm
YOUR KIDS FUTURE WITH RICK PERRY!!
—————————–
September 22, 2011 7:05am 459 Comments
Study: Most new Texas jobs went to immigrants
byByron York Chief Political Correspondent
Follow on Twitter:@byronyork
ORLANDO –
With both jobs and immigration likely topics of sharp debate at tonight’s Republican debate here in Florida, a new report suggests that newly-arrived immigrants have filled a majority of new jobs created in Texas, home to Republican frontrunner Gov. Rick Perry.
“Of jobs created in Texas since 2007, 81 percent were taken by newly arrived immigrant workers (legal and illegal),” says the report from the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that advocates reduced levels of both legal and illegal immigration. The report estimates that about 40 percent of the new jobs were taken by illegal immigrants, while 40 percent were taken by legal immigrants. The vast majority of both groups, legal and illegal, were not American citizens.
Native-born Americans filled just 20 percent of the new jobs in Texas, the report says, even though “the native born accounted for 69 percent of the growth in Texas’ working-age population.” “Thus, even though natives made up most of the growth in potential workers, most of the job growth went to immigrants,” the report concludes.
The report is based on analysis of the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey.
The study notes that 56 percent of newly-arrived immigrants in Texas since 2007 have had a high-school degree or less. But it also notes that “More than one out three…of newly arrived immigrants who took a job had at least some college.” It would be a mistake, the report concludes, “to assume that immigrants are only competing for jobs at the bottom end of the labor market.”
On the issue of immigration, Gov. Perry has been the target of criticism from some rivals because he opposes building a border fence and opposes E-Verify, while he supports in-state tuition for illegal immigrants as well as a guest-worker program. Rival Mitt Romney has made clear that he disagrees with Perry on each of those positions, and it’s likely that the issue will arise again in the Orlando debate.
In a press release accompanying the study, the Center for Immigration Studies makes a clear effort to cast doubt on Perry’s record. The relevant portion of that release:
As Republicans go through the process of selecting their party’s nominee, job growth in Texas during the current economic downturn has been the subject of much discussion. GOP frontrunner Perry has argued that he has a proven record of job creation in his state, even during the current economic downturn. It is true that Texas is one of the only states where the number of people working has increased during the recession. What has not been acknowledged is that immigrants have been the primary beneficiaries of this job growth, not native-born Americans. About 40 percent job growth went to newly arrived illegal immigrants and another 40 percent to new legal immigrants.
Some may argue that it was the arrival of immigrants in the state that stimulated what job growth there was for natives. But, if immigration stimulates job growth for natives, the numbers in Texas would look very different. The unemployment rate and the employment rate (share holding job) of natives in Texas show a dramatic deterioration during the recession that is similar to the rest of the country. Among the native-born, Texas ranks 22nd in terms of unemployment and 29th in terms of its employment rate. Outside of Texas many of the top immigrant-receiving states have the worst economies. Unemployment in the 10-top immigrant-receiving states in 2011 averaged 8.7 percent, compared to 7.2 percent on average in the 10 states where the fewest immigrants arrived since 2007. These figures do not settle the longstanding debate over the economics of immigration. What they do show is that high immigration is not necessarily associated with positive labor market outcomes for the! native-born.
Some may still feel that less-educated immigrants who work at the bottom of the labor market do not really compete with natives. It is true that 56.8 percent of newly arrived immigrants had no more than a high school education. However, there are more than 3 million native-born workers in Texas who have no more than a high school education. Between 2007 and 2011 the number of native-born Texans with a high school degree or less not working increased by 259,000 and their unemployment rates nearly doubled. It would be very difficult to find evidence that less-educated workers were in short supply in the state.
It must also be remembered that many immigrants are more educated. In fact, 43.2 percent (97,000) of newly arrived immigrants who took a job in Texas had at least some college. Thus it would a mistake to assume that immigrants are only competing for jobs at the bottom end of the labor market.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 23rd, 2011
12:23 pm
The Palestinians are ignoring our Nobel peace prize winning Moron-in-Chief and going for statehood at the UN. Can’t wait to see the outrage in the “Arab street” your Idiot Messiah’s veto will bring.
Idiot Messiah: Loser.
brad
September 23rd, 2011
12:33 pm
So Barry, you support Palestinian statehood? Doesn’t that make you an anti-Semitic terrorist supporter?
brad
September 23rd, 2011
12:34 pm
Lil Barry: Too stupid to remember his talking points.
Jefferson
September 23rd, 2011
12:36 pm
Sounds like Perry is all they say he is, and more…
Seanus Romney
September 23rd, 2011
12:38 pm
9 out of 10 dogs agree, Rick Perry is a better choice than Mitt Romney.
Rick Perry won’t strap you to the roof of a car for 12 hours driving on the freeway.
Rick Perry won’t hose you off (and the car) at a gas station after you have an accident because you’ve been strapped to the roof of a car barreling down the freeway at untold speeds. I’m not sure how fast he was driving, ’cause I was strapped to the roof of the car!
Rick Perry for President. A chicken in every pot, and a dog in the back seat.
brad
September 23rd, 2011
12:42 pm
Seanus, don’t forget the powerful feline voter bloc.
Mitt Romney: Behind every dog on the roof is a cat in the driver’s seat.
MiltonMan
September 23rd, 2011
12:46 pm
Perry or Romney will pick Rubio/Christie as their running mate. Obozo has about as much of a chance winning re-election as the Washington Nationals have on winning the World Series.
RAMZAD
September 23rd, 2011
12:54 pm
@Little Barry:
I love it how you are consumed with hate for Obama. I am sure that your hate, frustration,
and hopelessness will do wonders for your personality. Hate on! There is a plastic surgeon
waiting to repair what hate will do to your face.
JB
September 23rd, 2011
12:54 pm
If I were a moderate to center type Democrat, I would be warming up to who I wanted as the GOP nominee because this won’t even be close, and if you could live with Romney ( like I could live with Hillary right now ( at least she loves the country) You might want to line up and get him elected. I’d say he is a safe bet for all non wacko Dems.
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
1:01 pm
Milton….you hit the nail on the head. I think it will be Rubio. He will bring Florida and the latin vote. See ya Obama!
GT
September 23rd, 2011
1:25 pm
Kyle you are starting to make sense, it is scaring me. I think half the people in this country vote for Obama because the Republican Party defaults with their candidates. Watching Perry last night was not pretty. I thought our Georgia boys did a very good job and would make more attractive candidates than this guy. At least with both of them I can take their facts they are throwing out and believe they are correct. You can’t debate someone who is making up stuff like Bachman. If all parties are sincere and facts are real compromise and understanding is reachable. Romney has a good base for honesty too, that is what gets him in trouble with sound bites. I can promise in the long run telling the truth will not lose you my vote, and trying to hide the truth and being “clever” will. We should be applausing the Romneys who do not live in the legacy of Dick Cheney or Donald Rumsfeld.
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
1:28 pm
GT….Romney is not a bad pick at all. It WILL be him or Perry. For some reason Romney rubs some people the wrong way. He is almost too polished.
GT
September 23rd, 2011
1:35 pm
I agree but somewhere in there he is just trying to do the right thing. He has a relaxed way about him that tells me he is not trying to twist the truth and I think he is open to thoughts of others, doesn’t think he knows everything. Frankly the Mormon thing is going to be his biggest hurtle, but I not sure that is all that bad.
yuzeyurbrane
September 23rd, 2011
1:39 pm
I must admit that I admire your analyses of Republican politics. Very incisive and coherent.
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
1:39 pm
GT….I really dont think the Mormon thing is going to be that BIG of a deal. He is not trying to hid his religion and it hasnt affected the way he governs today.
Seanus Romney
September 23rd, 2011
1:47 pm
Brad,
Are you telling me that Mr. Mittens was driving???
GRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrrr
Seanus Romney
September 23rd, 2011
1:49 pm
GT,
You had me at applausing…
BeScared
September 23rd, 2011
1:50 pm
BE SCARED FOLKS
Rick Perry has a slight smirk on his face during the debate. Not only that debating is but one skill, and it arguably isn’t one of the 20 or even 50 most important skills a president should possess. But it’s definitely one of the top couple of skills a presidential candidate must possess.
Have we stumped this low just to have a white president with no intelligence rather than a black president with high intelligence.
BE VERY SCARED
Seanus Romney
September 23rd, 2011
1:52 pm
GT,
How many Romney’s are running for President?
Just one. The one who strapped me to the roof of the car. For 12 hours!
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
1:52 pm
BeScared…..intelligent comment you fool.
That is why Obozo has an approval rating of 39%! haha
BeScared
September 23rd, 2011
1:57 pm
@UGA 1999 September 23rd, 2011 1:28 pm
Romney to polished?????? Oh, now I get it. You people love the non-intelligent, hate monkering, non-polished, say and do anything to win candidates. OK. Now we know what we are working with (DUMMIES, HICKS,LOW LIFES, AND THE UNEDUCATED)
Be very scared people if this is what they want for a president.
HEAVEN HELP US ALL!!!
BeScared
September 23rd, 2011
1:59 pm
@UGA 1999 September 23rd, 2011 1:52 pm
I bet you have never seen the inside of UGA. Ha!!!
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
1:59 pm
Kyle…..Please ban BeScared.
Seanus Romney
September 23rd, 2011
2:00 pm
BeScared,
You know what’s scary?
12 hours strapped to the roof of a car!!!
Grrrrrrrrr
Seanus Romney
September 23rd, 2011
2:00 pm
BeScared,
You know what’s scary?
12 hours strapped to the roof of a car!!!
Grrrrrrrrr
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
2:00 pm
BeScared….I am sure you have seen the inside of an unemployment office.
University of Georgia
September 23rd, 2011
2:00 pm
@UGA 1999 September 23rd, 2011 1:52 pm
Quit using our good name you idiot!!!!!!
Seanus Romney
September 23rd, 2011
2:01 pm
Dang paws…
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
2:02 pm
BeScared….is now changing monikers! nice work. Typical Democrat.
Tell the Truth and Shame the Devil
September 23rd, 2011
2:03 pm
@UGA 1999 September 23rd, 2011 2:00 pm
Your mama was standing behind me at the unemployment office counting her food stamps.
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
2:03 pm
BeScared….Please tell me why you support Barack. Honest answer please….I know it is hard for you.
Be Careful of the Stones U Throw
September 23rd, 2011
2:05 pm
@UGA 1999 September 23rd, 2011 2:02 pm
You can’t believe that there are a lot of people who do not agree with your ignoranr rantings.
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
2:06 pm
Be Careful…..I just asked you a question. Come on you can do it. Just a couple of reasons why you support Barack. Other than he is black.
Ignoranr or Ignorant? You must not have made it through middle school spelling classes.
BeScared
September 23rd, 2011
2:08 pm
@UGA 1999 September 23rd, 2011 2:03 pm
That is the oldest trick in the book. You are not going to set me up. I have got to get to class at UGA.
Goodbye!!!!!!!!!!
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
2:09 pm
BeScared….WOW, you couldnt even come up with one? Wow it is worse than I thought. Democrats are too easy.
Seanus Romney
September 23rd, 2011
2:11 pm
Uga 1999,
You’re no Russ yourself…
Jakc McFarland
September 23rd, 2011
2:41 pm
Kyle, why didn’t you mention the crowd applauding Rick Santorum’s comments or the fact that they booed the gay soldier? Aren’t the Republicans the first to throw out the “unpatriotic card” or “anti-american” and the “democrats-hate-soldiers” card?
THE "REAL" TRUTH
September 23rd, 2011
2:52 pm
Whatever UGA 1999, did you miss the part about where this started from, genius? Try looking at the year AFTER you completed UGA. Or where you just a little tanked still from the UGA/FL game…??? Awww, the loss of mental ability…horrible thing…
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 23rd, 2011
2:58 pm
So Barry, you support Palestinian statehood? Doesn’t that make you an anti-Semitic terrorist supporter?
———-
Yes, and no. And I’m extremely disappointed and surprised that your genius Nobel winning Idiot Messiah hasn’t been able to make it happen.
Idiot Messiah: Loser with a Nobel “participant” medal.
Tired of obozo - Real Shovel Ready Jobs
September 23rd, 2011
3:53 pm
Governor Johnson’s neighbor’s capitalist dog for President 2012.
Dora
September 23rd, 2011
4:53 pm
There is no way this Perry clown will ever win election. He is a known liar and it won’t be long before he is outed for the gay homosexual he is. I hear he and that Haggerdy guy are buttocks buddies.
Any republican = loser.
Perry = Gay Texan who likes steers
Martin Williams
September 23rd, 2011
5:03 pm
Kyle, I know most GOP voters are not as smart as you all think. You all re-elected George W. Bush in 2004 even after a deadly big lie to attack Iraq and revenge the attempt Sadam made on his daddy’s life. So, I know GOP voters are not very smart either and people like Neal Bootze think Democratic voters are stupid. Tell you this line for free. If the GOP gives the flag to Perry, Obama gets a second term and to be honest with you I do not want that. Perry is the wrong guy, you all try Romney as the last you all skipped him and gave it John M. and look what happened……
redneckbluedog
September 23rd, 2011
6:57 pm
You conservatives sound like me trying to get behind John Kerry….eeeek…..Hold your nose, convince yourself he has a chance, and try to stay mad at the other guy…….Been there and know what it’s like…..WHISKEY HELPS NUMB THE PAIN….;-)…..
slp98
September 23rd, 2011
7:08 pm
Be scared – I’m sure UGA 1999 is a great truck alumnus of UGA…
As an independent, I probably will vote for Obama in 2012. Its always the wackos who run in the Republican party – why can’t they just nominate someone who is NORMAL?? A big problem with the Republican party is that everyone must cater to the right-wing nutjobs when it comes to social issues.
The majority of Americans are in the “center” on social issues. I could vote Republican for conservative financial principles, but I can’t vote for someone who insists they are for limited government except when they want to control my PRIVATE life (gay/straight, abortion, etc.).
hatorade drinkers
September 23rd, 2011
7:37 pm
who cares about debates? those with nothing to do with their time. doesn’t matter who wins, country is going to the dogs regardless. Get ready for China to be the number 1 economy in 2020.
Sister Sarah
September 23rd, 2011
8:30 pm
@UGA1999. You know, back decades ago they used to give your types electric shock treatment for that disorder you’re workong with? If I can refer you and anyone else who enjoys weaving the liar’s web to this graph of Ronald Reagan’s approval numbers over his presidency:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gallup_Poll-Approval_Rating-Ronald_Reagan.png
Oh…don’t let FACTS get in the way and interrupt your delusions. Oh yeah… machine gun posting gets really annoying, but somehow I guess that’s your goal anyway. I eagerly await rebuttal from ANYONE on this.
Uncle Jed
September 24th, 2011
12:37 am
UGA 1999
September 23rd, 2011
1:59 pm
Kyle…..Please ban BeScared.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
NO, don’t do that. We all need an easy reference point for an IDIOT poster.
Uncle Jed
September 24th, 2011
12:40 am
slp98
September 23rd, 2011
7:08 pm
As an independent, I probably will vote for Obama in 2012.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Independent like my dog doesn’t lick himself. You owe us all an apology for voting for the “mistake” last time.
Alashawndre
September 24th, 2011
11:23 am
The Thursday debate was the first one I paid any attention to. I was unimpressed with Gov. Perry. It wasn’t just his lame defense of his illegal immigrant and forced vacinnation policies or even his debate style. It was his demeanor. He seemed to throw off a bad vibe, almost haughty and smug.
I think he reminded me too much of Bush.