Do ‘keys to the White House’ go for or against Obama?
Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, says he has a certain formula for predicting the winner of the presidential race. He has 13 “keys to the White House.” If six of the 13 go against the party currently holding the presidency, that party will lose. Otherwise, it will win.
Since 1984, he says, this formula has never been wrong about the winner of the popular vote (with the caveat that Al Gore of course won the popular vote but not the presidency).
He explained these keys recently to Paul Bedard of U.S. News & World Report:
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Of these 13, there are just two that are objectively indisputable and not subject to change: No. 1 goes against President Obama (the Democrats hold fewer House seats now than when he took office) and No. 3 goes for him (he’s an incumbent).
The ones leaning Obama’s way are: No. 2 (despite speculation, I don’t think Hillary Clinton or any other Democrat is going to challenge him); No. 4 (despite some grumbling from labor unions, I think any third-party challenger would be more likely to take votes from a Republican than Obama); and No. 11 (the killing of Osama bin Laden almost certainly fulfills this requirement).
The one leaning against him is No. 6 (given that per capita GDP growth averaged 3.3 percent from 2001 to 2008 and has averaged just 0.4 percent in 2009 and 2010, and given what we know about GDP growth so far in 2011, it would take a true miracle for this one to go Obama’s way).
In my view, that leaves seven of the 13 factors in play. Some of them are less likely to break against Obama than others — for example, while the violent flash mobs in some U.S. inner cities could spark something larger, it’s unlikely that No. 8 (sustained social unrest) will turn against Obama. Here are my thoughts on the others:
- No. 5 (short term economy): We might escape a technical recession between now and next fall, but it’s likely that voters will hold the sh0rt-term economy against Obama.
- No. 7 (policy change): Lichtman describes this one as if any old change necessarily plays in the incumbent party’s favor. But given the unpopularity of Obama’s signature health-care reform — and the distinct possibility that the Supreme Court will overturn all or part of the law before the election — I think there’s a good chance this one goes against the president.
- No. 9 (scandal): So far, there’s nothing that would qualify. But Congress and the media are still digging into the ATF’s “gunwalker” operation, and just yesterday there was a significant personnel shuffle related to it. It still has time to blow up between now and next fall. So, while I think this ends up on Obama’s side of the ledger as of today, that’s subject to change.
- No. 10 (major military/foreign policy failure): Not to date. But with hot wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, as well as continuing drone attacks in Pakistan, Yemen and elsewhere, there’s too much time for something bad to happen on this front. This one is uncertain.
- No. 12 (incumbent charisma): Three years ago, this would have been a shoo-in for Obama. But he has not had much success lately in personally selling policies to the public. He’s been described even by his own supporters as being distant, cold and too quick to fold in the face of GOP demands. I think this one could go either way by the time we get to November 2012.
- No. 13 (challenger charisma): Well, that depends on the challenger, doesn’t it? I think Mitt Romney at this point would not be described as “charismatic,” but Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann could easily wear that label. Still TBD.
By my count, that’s six in or leaning toward Obama’s favor, and four against him or leaning that way — with three up in the air. Lichtman, on the other hand, scores it 9-3 in Obama’s favor with just one TBD (read the U.S. News piece to see how he gets to that count).
What say you?
– By Kyle Wingfield
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104 comments Add your comment
David Granger
August 31st, 2011
11:38 am
I think that President Obama is a favorite to be re-elected, for the following reasons:
1. The country’s demographics favor the Democratic party now. Partially due to years of ignoring illegal immigration, the Democratic candidate will get most of the Hispanic vote.
2. A majority of U.S. citizens favor legalized abortion and rights for gays (especially the right to serve openly in the military). Any Republican who favors these (or who is not actively AGAINST them) would have winning chances in the general election, but probably couldn’t get the nomination.
3. Despite the anger of many Democrats over President Obama’s “lay down” on the debt ceiling, it was a smart move politically. Now raising the debt ceiling can’t become an issue before the 2012 election.
4. Many of the most likely Republican nominees are rambunctious, shoot-from-the-hip kind of candidates. They say some things that really endear them to their base, infuriate the Democrats, and (most important) make the middle-of-the-road independents really wonder whether they’re good Presidential timber or not. (And in situations like that, the incumbent usually gets the “benefit of the doubt”.)
5. He’s still Black. Not only will that sew up the great majority of the African-American vote, but it will also garner him a lot of votes from people who like the symbolism of it. (And many of these are journalists, and it will be reflected in their coverage and…in some cases…the lack of it.)
Against President Obama is the economy, of course, which could always change. (And it doesn’t have to completely change…just be moving in the right direction.) Plus, the great majority of the electorate does NOT like Obamacare, and is staunchly against it. (Including many liberals, who do NOT like the mandate, but who grudgingly support it anyway just to give the President a win.) And as is always the case (with any President, liberal or conservative) a lot of the “savings” that the CBO predicted (because they are required…by law…to accept the administration’s predictions for costs and economic growth) are nonsense, and Obamacare will actually end up being tremendously expensive…both directly, and in its affect on the economy.
carlosgvv
August 31st, 2011
11:42 am
Kyle, I say that you are so desperate for Obama to lose in 2012 that, this time next year, you will be reading tea leaves and Tarot cards in hopes of seeing some sign he will lose.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
11:50 am
Obama is done! Thank GOD!!
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
11:50 am
Carlos….no need to tarot cards. This joker is doing a great job of beating himself!
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
11:53 am
76% of Americans feel the economy is getting worse. The other 24% are either blind or ignorant. See ya Barack!
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
11:55 am
Allan Lichtman has always had too much free time on his hands.
It’s the economy, stupid.
It is almost always the economy unless we are in a real shooting war.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
11:57 am
Carlos, that was about as objective an analysis of current and likely scenarios as there could be by Kyle.
Why the hate?
ByteMe
August 31st, 2011
12:13 pm
you will be reading tea leaves and Tarot cards
I was thinking chicken entrails.
ByteMe
August 31st, 2011
12:17 pm
Since 1984, he says, this formula has never been wrong about the winner of the popular vote
That’s only 7 right in a longer stream. You could get the same statistical odds flipping a coin.
Not saying it’s wrong, just that the statistics don’t support saying it’s right.
Lil' Bushie Bailout (Revised Upwards)
August 31st, 2011
12:21 pm
Obama is done! Thank GOD!!
___________________________________
You are thanking the wrong entity.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
12:23 pm
I think Licthman is saying that his formula wasn’t in place until 1984, ByteMe, not that it wasn’t accurate before then.
the original and still the best John Galt
August 31st, 2011
12:28 pm
Professor Lichtman’s system works, but the reasons that The Messiah Barack the Chosen One, the Magnificent and All Knowing, will be re-elected boil down to these:
1. The same bunch who voted for him last time will vote for him again. Now, a few may stay home, because the largess promised by The Messiah has not been quite what they expected, but net consumers of government transfer payments vote, and there is no way they will vote for Perry, Romney, or Bachman.
2. The State Controlled media will be 100 percent for The Messiah and 100 percent against his opponent. Unfortunately a huge number of Americans still get all their information from the State Controlled media.
3. Some “October Surprise” will happen magically just before the election. Maybe Bin Laden will be captured alive after a year on the ocean floor, who knows.
It may be that even these reasons complicate matters too much. It could be as simple as stating that neither Perry, Romney, nor Bachman have what it takes to defeat The Messiah.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
12:30 pm
Dont think so.
MrLiberty
August 31st, 2011
12:41 pm
By next summer the media and other will finally start using the term DEPRESSION to describe what is going on even now, but by then things will be far worse. Likely there will be massive social unrest as the parasites realize that the host is dying and will be fighting back to keep the fruits of their labor and their property. The military adventurism will continue to cause death and destruction around the globe and the absurdity of our participation will become even more apparent.
The greatest threat to Obama is that he will continue doing the very things he is doing now. Everything he does and everything he proposes, like the actions of Hoover and FDR, only makes the economic situation worse and worse.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
12:42 pm
MrLiberty….agreed.
Gm
August 31st, 2011
12:42 pm
Obama will win hands down: This administration is the cleanest administration in years, Obama the family man, morles and vaules will win out every time.
Of course he will not win in the good old boy south, it does not matter that he has these morles and vaules because his skin color over rides that for the idiots of the tea party, these retards on the right love the cowboy type that love to disgrace America around the world, the ones that lie to them and polices causes 3,000 Americans to die in Ny, never mind Obama has been keeping us safe for the last 3 years.
Lil' Bushie Bailout (Revised Upwards)
August 31st, 2011
12:44 pm
Nice job, MrLiberty in painting a setting like the ending of Terminator.
Contards are so doom and gloon unless the president is a Repub.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
12:45 pm
Gm….now that is funny! Thanks for the laugh.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
12:45 pm
Gm……you should also learn how to spell……What are “morles and vaules”?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
12:52 pm
#14: Hates America and actively works to weaken it.
————
Pretty sure this one goes against Obozo.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
12:53 pm
“This administration is the cleanest administration in years, Obama the family man, morles and vaules will win out every time.”
So?
Doesn’t matter one bit, Gm. Very few people now for “for” a candidate, but rather vote ‘against” his opponent.
And nice adult argument when using the term “teatard” and implying they are racist, even though no evidence of your assertion exists.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
12:56 pm
Lil’ Bushie proves that he doesn’t have an intelligent argument when he breaks out the “Contard” name-calling.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
12:56 pm
Oops, I forgot to say hi to Lil’ Nat, everyone’s favorite sock puppet (see thread below).
Jefferson
August 31st, 2011
1:00 pm
Bachman V President — Better than Rocky III
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
1:02 pm
Ok I am back…..I had to run to the restroom. I just realized the waste that I just left in the toilet is more beneficial to the economy than Obama is! haha Think about it, it is true.
Gm
August 31st, 2011
1:04 pm
UGA 1999
excuse me guys morals are something the last adminstration did not have, the truth hurts ””
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
1:05 pm
Gm….but you said “Morles”….what is that?
DARRYL
August 31st, 2011
1:05 pm
Rick Perry charismatic LOL!!!! I don’t think so he’s to much like Bush
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
1:07 pm
Darryl….I am assuming you meant to say “too much like Bush”. Can you please tell us how (other than being the govenor of Texas) he is like President Bush?
Rafe Hollister
August 31st, 2011
1:08 pm
Fast and Furious is going to blow up all over Mr. Holder and his buddy Barry. The economy is going to get worse. Unemployment among young blacks is near 40% and among all blacks is 16%. I know that Black America loves this fellow but he has done nothing for them but take them for granted. Don’t see them turning out in the astounding numbers they did in 2008. The race pimps are going to drag up everything they can to keep them stirred up, but I think conditions on the ground will deter a heavy turnout.
College kids are turned off to Obama, they can’t find jobs are moving back in with Mama. Don’t think we are going to see Obamagirl this time.
i think Reps win control of Senate, keep House, and win White House, triple crown.
xCalaber
August 31st, 2011
1:08 pm
Kyle, Nice, balanced on the analysis. I might like it to be stronger one way or the other but the criteria are pretty clear even if the condition of the country in 2012 is not yet. A big divide is on the horizion.
Obama has only proposed two major initiatives: the $800 billion stimulus that most economists and Voters think was a failure and the significantly unpopular Obamacare. Now he is under pressure from his own party for a budget busting, class warfare oriented “jobs” bill. While such an action will galvanize the left it it will also galvanize the right and lose the middle. Americans want to grow opportunity not see another make-work, union puppet boondoggle. If Obama gives into the left, count on a rousing, flag waving historic loss for the Democrats.
Lil' Bushie Bailout (Revised Upwards)
August 31st, 2011
1:10 pm
“This administration is the cleanest administration in years, Obama the family man, morles and vaules will win out every time.”
So?
_________________________________________________
Yeah, like that wasn’t a big deal when Bush got elected. And I thought Repubs were all for family-values?
ragnar danneskjold
August 31st, 2011
1:15 pm
Sounds like there is no reason to hold an election, Thank goodness we have political scientists to tell us what we want.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
1:16 pm
Does anyone find it hilarious that the MLK memorial is white?
Lil' Bushie Bailout (Revised Upwards)
August 31st, 2011
1:17 pm
Nope. Just you race pimp.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
1:18 pm
Lil’ Bushie, when all things are equal, i.e. the economy is rolling along, there are no shooting wars and there is no incumbent, people will look to other things like morals, especially given the Clinton escapades.
But trying to compare a single issue in the election of 2000 to the one in 2012 is a waste of time, as the conditions which allowed that issue to become important then do not exist now.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
1:18 pm
OMG I find it one of the funniest blunders of all time. It is great!
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
1:22 pm
Darryl, while I don’t particularly like Rick Perry, even an objective observer would admit the guy is charismatic on the stump. You can disagree with his policies all day long, but denying his charisma is a bit too partisan.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
1:24 pm
UGA 1999, I don’t think it’s relevant in the least. Memorials are done in stone. Stone is usually white.
Lil' Bushie Bailout (Revised Upwards)
August 31st, 2011
1:25 pm
Gotcha! It is hard to keep up with the Repubs play book. I might just file that under “Do as I say, not as I do.”
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
1:29 pm
Tiberius….Yeah I know, I know.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
1:29 pm
Rafe, right now I’m thinking that the GOP loses 10-15 seats in the house but still retains control (and Boehner get replaced as Speaker), the Senate becomes 50-50 with Scott Brown losing his MA seat (but only if Elizabeth Warren gets in the race), and a toss-up on the White House. The toss-up is due to who will be nominated. If Perry is nominated, we get another 4 years Hope & Incompetent ™. If Romney is nominated, he wins by no more than 25 electoral votes.
that's goofy
August 31st, 2011
1:31 pm
“i think Reps win control of Senate, keep House, and win White House, triple crown.”
That worked out so well last time: 2 wars, housing crash, Wall Street bailout, beginning of economic melt down. Heck of a job GOP.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
1:33 pm
That’s goofy…..So in your opinion what has Barack done to help our situation? Housing market continues to crash, entered into another war (Libya), Unemployment over 9%…….Heck of a job Dems!
Nat Turner
August 31st, 2011
1:42 pm
Tiberius, even though we don’t see eye to eye on Huntsman (who should become President), I agree with everything you said at 1:29.
Ayn Rant
August 31st, 2011
1:44 pm
Guess the hot issues for Indecision 2012!
Job creation? No, that was fixed by extending the Bush tax cuts past 2010. Budget deficit? No, there’s no budget, and the Super Committee will fix the deficit. Nation building? No, we’ve already reconstructed Vietnam, Grenada, Panama, the former Yugoslavia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Foreign policy? Forget it; nobody pays attention to a distended military power that’s bankrolled by its only potential enemy.
Guess it’ll just be Democrats vs. Republicans, with the victories doled out more or less evenly between the two parties. The individual winners will be the politicians who can extort and spend the most to convince voters that the solution to all our national problems is to do again and again what’s already tried and failed.
Another round of stimulus spending will surely jolt us out of recession; too bad our banker’s losing patience and we don’t have any worthwhile shovel-ready projects. More tax cuts and loopholes for the multimillionaires and Big Business will surely break loose their trillions of dollars of parked capital; after all, they’re running out of financial parking space. What more could we hope for than a trickle of coins from the pool of capital at the top to the middle class, and a sprinkle of crumbs from the rich man’s table for the poor?
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
1:47 pm
Ayn Rant…..Remind me again why the rich and the middle class are responsible for supporting the poor?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
1:53 pm
“That worked out so well last time: 2 wars, housing crash, Wall Street bailout, beginning of economic melt down. Heck of a job GOP.”
That’s Goofy, if parties and political conditions always remained the same, we’d still be electing Whigs.
Jefferson
August 31st, 2011
1:57 pm
I would laugh if the president is reelected, but won’t cry if he isn’t…can you say the same of the GOP puppet that will be in the race?
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
1:59 pm
Jefferson….who?
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
2:04 pm
“can you say the same of the GOP puppet that will be in the race?”
And this President isn’t a puppet in his own right?
Please.
carlosgvv
August 31st, 2011
2:34 pm
Tiberius 11:57 – “why the hate”
This from the person who calls himself “your lightning rod of hate”?
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
2:34 pm
Carlos….great job not answering his question.
Rafe Hollister
August 31st, 2011
2:36 pm
Jefferson, that would be Marcy’s husband and Al Bundy’s neighbor.
Rafe Hollister
August 31st, 2011
2:43 pm
Tiberius, you are much too conservative my friend. Presidential elections are a state by state slog, not a national popularity contest. Obama will not win in VA again and with Kasich as Gov, his prospects in OH are not good. FL has to go Rep, as the Cubans (and hopefully the Jewish vote wakes up to his dislike of Isreal) and geezers have no incentive to vote for Barry. He is taking 500B from their Medicare program remember. I think it is going to be an Electoral College Blowout, the popular vote will be closer.
As for the Senate, I think ARK will toss Blanche, George Allen will win in VA if they vote Rep in the pres race. There are several other “conservative” Dems who voted for Obamacare, that will get tossed as well. We may lose Scott Brown, but can’t think of many others. Due to redistricting should pick up some house Rep seats as well. Good Times ahead, we hope.
Gm
August 31st, 2011
2:48 pm
UGA 1999
Thank God Florida does not fall in the tradition red neck south that vote for good old boys no matter how they screw up the state.
You would never give Obama any credit no matter what, just like Florida kicking your butt the last 18 out of 21 shows the character Georgia has none.
ByteMe
August 31st, 2011
2:50 pm
and with Kasich as Gov, his prospects in OH are not good
Kasich is not liked at all in Ohio. You should look up what’s been happening in the Midwest polls since 2010.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
2:51 pm
Gm….redneck south….haha that is funny. I give Obama plenty of credit! Credit for most of the mess we are in today. Thank you very much Barack!
So now you want to talk about football? Haha mature Gm really mature.
Junior Samples
August 31st, 2011
2:54 pm
Kyle,
You need to dig deeper for that scoop that’ll land you on the front page of every newpaper in the country.
Who does Puxatawny Phil predict for the presidential race?
Junior Samples
August 31st, 2011
2:56 pm
GM,
the panhandle is called the riviera?
Junior Samples
August 31st, 2011
2:57 pm
the (what?) riviera?
Gm
August 31st, 2011
2:58 pm
UGA 1999
Look at the piece of scum D. Cheney going around taking shots at former members of his party, I guess you like that bigot? , he can never change the fact 3,000 Americans died under his watch.
jconservative
August 31st, 2011
3:00 pm
Interesting discussion.
Obama will get 46% of the popular vote. The Republican nominee will get 46% of the popular vote.
The Independents, that illusive 8% of the voters, will decide who the next president will be. As they always do.
The question becomes, how will the challenger do against the incumbent? It is a head to head challenge for both. How will the Independents perceive the two candidates? And perception does matter.
The danger for challengers is always the sound bites played back from the in-party fight for the nomination. The danger for challengers is always the “skeletons” in the closet.
Of the top three Republicans I see the following:
Bachmann can’t seem to keep her foot out of her mouth. She just cannot stay on message. She would be a poor candidate.
Romney has the albatross of Romneycare and the label of “the former liberal Republican Governor of Massachusetts”. He will look silly criticizing Obamacare and accusing Obama of being liberal. He is a liberal.
Perry has his “love letter” to Hillary Clinton and his chairmanship of the Texas “Gore for President” campaign around his neck. The National Democratic Party will send every voter in the nation a copy of Perry’s endorsement of Hillary’s National Health Care Plan. He smells liberal from way back.
Isn’t there a plain speaking, clean record, Conservative Republican candidate somewhere in that party?
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
3:01 pm
Gm….And which president could have killed Bin Laden over 12 years ago? And you blame the Repubs for 9/11 nice job! haha
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
3:04 pm
jconservative…..do you really want to bring up “plain speaking, clean record” when we are discussing Obama? That is rich!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
3:06 pm
Funny how all these Republicans “aren’t very well liked” but they keep getting elected.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
3:10 pm
Lil Barry……that is an oxymoron. Not very well liked but keep getting elected. What does that tell you about the public perception of the Demoncrats?
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
3:20 pm
Quiet….
Penny Lane
August 31st, 2011
4:07 pm
The real question is, will there be a third party contender. If there is a conservative third party candidate, then they will split the vote with the official GOP nominee – and Obama wins. Remember, Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992 with only 43% of the vote because Ross Perot and George Bush senior split the rest.
If the Tea Party decides to run an independent third party candidate, then Barck Obama will almost certainly win.
Go Tea Party!
Lil' Bushie Bailout (Revised Upwards)
August 31st, 2011
4:11 pm
Lil Barry……that is an oxymoron. Not very well liked but keep getting elected.
___________________________________________________
That the voters are voting for the Republicans holding their noses.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
4:35 pm
“This from the person who calls himself “your lightning rod of hate”?”
Carlos, the English language eludes you sometimes.
A lightning rod ATTRACTS lighting, so does a lightning rod of hate attract hate.
Such as yours.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
4:43 pm
“The real question is, will there be a third party contender.”
There will be NO third-party candidate in 2012. Not even the Tea Party will be dumb enough to do so.
“If there is a conservative third party candidate, then they will split the vote with the official GOP nominee – and Obama wins.”
Which is why there won’t be a third-party candidate in such a closely decided election cycle.
“Remember, Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992 with only 43% of the vote because Ross Perot and George Bush senior split the rest.”
Sorry, Penny, but turn in your Presidential Election history badge. Polls showed that the Perot factor wasn’t a split at all; in fact, Clinton’s electoral victory would have been much higher if Perot wasn’t in the race. George H.W. Bush was NEVER going to win that election – Ross Perot or no Ross Perot.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
4:59 pm
Rafe, I’m sorry but you paint too rosy a picture.
When both the Republican and Democrat brands are as damaged as they BOTH are right now, no one is going to flock to the polls in numbers great enough to make a large swing either way, and there are too many swing states that could teeter by just a few thousand votes on Wednesday morning.
This election is gong to be driven by fear if the other side’s candidate get elected, except if Romney is nominated by the GOP. He’s no liberal, as jconservative asserts; he’s a moderate. Mass. passed health care because Romney was the governor of a state that has a veto-proof very Democrat/liberal majority in both the State House and the Senate. At the time, there were just over a dozen GOP legislators serving in both Houses COMBINED. That Romney took any credit for it at the time was because he LIMITED it to being something less unworkable – it was going to get passed despite any attempts by him to stop it, and overridden handily if he vetoed it.
He can, and has, beaten up this President pretty well on the economy and will continue to do so as long as he keeps providing fodder for Republicans. The Romneycare issue will be a non-issue.
And I agree that Blanche Lincoln is likely gone, and I think the GOP picks up Senate seats of those retiring in Montana and the Dakotas. I’m not as sure about George Allen taking back his seat; he’s always been a bit of an empty suit.
On the Presidential side, FL and OH are still in play for both sides. An unpopular President is being offset by unpopular GOP governors today. There is still plenty of time for those governor’s poll numbers to improve, especially as their policies show fiscal improvement as they do in OH.
marko
August 31st, 2011
5:27 pm
Congrats Kyle. I’d have to say that was a pretty fair and balanced assessment of Obama’s chances. Like you said, there’s a lot that could happen between now and then. Can Mitt buy a personality? Will the party faithful stomach a Mormon rhino? Can Perry keep his boots out of his mouth? Will the Hillary slide into the VP slot and inspire the faithful?
I know one thing for sure, I’m going to love every minute of it. Politics is reality TV for people will functioning brains. This race figures to be a real doozy. One really exciting prospect could be the Republicans showing up without enough electoral votes to seal the deal. No made for TV, gag me please coronation, but a real honest to God political convention. That would be something most of us have only read about in history books.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
6:28 pm
carlosgvv doesn’t know what a lightning rod is for. Another victim of public schools, obviously.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
6:32 pm
The one thing that could keep the GOP from going to a brokered convention is the lemming factor that Americans have developed over the years.
There’s been a growing trend that “voting one’s conscience” is being overtaken by “voting for the leader”, as in people want to be associated with someone that is winning. If the same person wins a couple of early primaries, lemmings (on the order of 5%-10%) flock to the winner and desert the candidate they were going to vote for and dooming the chances for a real, live campaign.
Streetracer
August 31st, 2011
6:47 pm
Gm @ 2:58
And how many people died on the USS Arizona on 12/7/41? Not how many died that day just on the Arizona.
Again also to you and others. I am getting real effing tired of people who call me (and folks who believe like me) a racist because with disagree with current public policy.
THE "REAL" TRUTH
August 31st, 2011
6:54 pm
So, eve with the limited strides by the President (due to a ReKluxican party’s desire to NOT participate in the business of this country), I think you’re waaaaaaayyyy off base here, Kyle.
It’s one thing to hope for a Democratic defeat in 2012, but to start grasping for straws in the pursuit of such a hope, is largely desparate.
Go DEMS!! Obama 2012
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
6:58 pm
Streetracer, don’t let it get to you, it’s just a reflection of their desperation that they have no other choice but to play that card. They’re losers, they’ll always be losers.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
7:05 pm
The “Real” Truth, if you want to make an attempt at an intelligent post, you might not want to use the ReKluxican” label.
Otherwise, you’ve limited yourself to the “I have nothing but racist name calling” standard.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
August 31st, 2011
7:33 pm
14. Deeply Unpopular and Despised makes it 13-1 against obozo unless Bruno Clinton enters the race.
Streetracer
August 31st, 2011
7:44 pm
LiL’ Barry @ 6:58
I know but I had ancestors who fought (and some got dead) in “Bleeding Kansas”, years before the civil war. Kinda pi$$e$ me off though.
double
August 31st, 2011
9:04 pm
I don’t think I would criticize Obama on Lybia…If you must have war this is way to go.Get all ducks in row.Very low money cost,no American casualties.And to say he is not a leader.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
9:07 pm
Obozo was a follower on Libya. He’ll gladly take the credit for the work of others though.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
9:09 pm
Tell us about Obozo’s great leadership in coming up with that whole “Fast and Furious” idea.
Oops, not a good example for the Obozo receptacles.
Butch Cassidy
August 31st, 2011
9:24 pm
Enter your comments here
Butch Cassidy
August 31st, 2011
9:27 pm
People are sheep. As long as the remote works and the beer is cold, and nothing really intereferes with that, they will continue to vote for whoever is currently in charge. Only the party faithful rant and rave. Hate to tell you, but you better start focusing on 2016, 2012 will go to Obama.
Rod
August 31st, 2011
9:37 pm
Kyle,
We get the government we deserve. If more than 1/2 of the voters want Bachman or Perry running this country, the world will certify us an insane. Hope you guys have someone else in the wings.
hryder
August 31st, 2011
9:53 pm
I just want the man out of the Oval Office. He reached his level of imcompetence when sworn into office as President.(the Peter Principle) Plus the fact that he consistently utters statements that are far removed from fact or truth. The last statement, however, does not create much angst among the media or his fellow Democrats.
Lynnie Gal
August 31st, 2011
10:20 pm
Obama will win if Perry gets the nomination, which is looking likely. If Romney gets the nod, he’ll have a much tougher run, but Obama will probably still win because religious bigots don’t like mormons. If people are paying attention to what’s going on here, the Dems will score big the next election and the Tea Party will have blown up the R party for many years to come. Republicans, guided by TP, want American workers to fail, have no jobs and no bargaining rights, and make certain that ordinary people can’t get healthcare or Social Security. I don’t think this is a winning policy with most people. United we bargain, divided we beg. And that goes for all people who work for a living.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
11:01 pm
“Republicans, guided by TP, want American workers to fail, have no jobs and no bargaining rights, and make certain that ordinary people can’t get healthcare or Social Security.”
Really?
Because I haven’t seen any bill or any statements from any Republican that lends any credence whatsoever to your post, Lynnie Gal.
Maybe you could provide something other than Democrat talking points?
double
September 1st, 2011
1:16 am
Obama shows greatness again,conceding speech time.DC area wet enough.Great leader
Toussaint Carver
September 1st, 2011
1:48 am
Streetracer, those were your ancestors and have nothing to do with how you may feel about blacks. I had black relatives that owned slaves, so what’s your point?
Let’s see if you are going to follow protocol, and say that you have a black friend. Or you have black friends that never bring race into your discussions, and also disagree with Obama.
Spare me. I have seen it all before.
Streetracer
September 1st, 2011
5:16 am
Toussaint Carver @ 1:48
Alright, I’ll be a little more personal. I’ve never used the N word in my life, but I’ve been call “white motherbleep” more times than I can count. Being a dumb conservative male, I can count to twenty-one.
That help you any.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 1st, 2011
6:07 am
“bigots don’t like mormons”
—————————-
Exhibit A: Democrat and Obamamedia criticism of Mitt Romney.
Democrats: Bigots.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 1st, 2011
8:16 am
Just saw a recent photo of Obozo wearing a US flag pin.
Don’t cry though, Dems, he’s still the America-hater you know and love. The flag pin is for the moderates.
sircharles19
September 1st, 2011
9:31 am
The question should be who is best to lead this country…and without a lot of restrains. There is no other person right now, maybe for the next election after 2012 four years, it could be woman and things for the US will be unexplainable. Right now, the best person is our sitting President. Congress needs to work with him to get America rolling again! We are in a very bad situation regardless how people think and feel. It is what it is! We need all of the support we can get and that is no lie!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 1st, 2011
9:49 am
Except that your Idiot Messiah is doing all the wrong things, if the objectives are faster economic growth, lower unemployment, and smaller deficits.
Morrus
September 1st, 2011
9:50 am
Bachmann, charisma? Marty Feldman, sure……
NameJacker
September 1st, 2011
9:57 am
Really? Really?
Dirty Dawg
September 1st, 2011
9:58 am
Well Kyle, even though you managed to use ‘in my view’ several times, the author’s analysis has determined that Obama has already ‘won’ the required number of ‘keys’ to win next year. What I don’t understand is why these can’t, or won’t, change in the fourteen months between now and then…and, of course, that if the issue of a continued ‘down’ economy and ‘high’ unemployment, can be, appropriately, blamed on an obstructionist Republican Party that would rather see America in a recession, or worse, and win an election than the other way around. I say ‘to he!! with the scumbags and the cretins that carry their water for ‘em’…get it?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 1st, 2011
11:02 am
Your claim of Republican obstruction would have a shred of credibility if you could identify some bit of Democrat-proposed legislation that had been obstructed.
Toussaint Carver
September 1st, 2011
12:59 pm
Streetracer @ 5:16. And I have never used “white motherbleep”, but have been called the “n” word way more times that I care to remember.
So again, what’s your point? This is the internet. You can claim to never have used the “n” word, and I can claim to be in the top 1%. Who can verify any of this information?
Billy Yukon
September 2nd, 2011
6:09 am
This bias skewed overreach may be Lichtman’s Waterloo.
2) There is no serious challenger for the incumbent party nomination. XXPoint ObamaXX
Undecided, unless Lichtman in his omniscient greatness has psychically foreseen the upcoming primary process from beginning to end.
4) There is no significant third party challenger. XXPoint ObamaXX
Undecided, again we can say it’s unlikely now, but who, this early, predicted Ross Perot would decide an election?
5) The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign. Push (Lichtman declares this one “undecided.”)
Fair enough, but personally I don’t see how we can avoid a recession with employment stagnant at best and consumer confidence plummeting while we lay off ever increasing numbers of public employees and any action by Obama is cornered by the debt ceiling terms he himself agreed to. Looks like checkmate to me, though others may not agree.
7) The incumbent administration pushes through major national policy changes. XXPoint Obama.XX
Undecided. This is where it falls apart. Define “major national policy initiative”. If this is to have an effect on the outcome of an election, we must assume it is interacting with people on some level. Obama’s anemic health care plan will continue to exist only on paper and only in boastful political adds to the great majority of most Americans, and most of those who even think about it do so because, justified or not, they hate it. This is not something like the new deal which effected everyone in the country very directly and relatively immediately, and of course positively.
OK, but as a note, if the economy gets much worse, even just in certain urban locations, this could change over night.
10) The incumbent administration suffers no major foreign/military affairs failure. XXPoint Obama.XX
Point Republican. Hello, ask anyone if they think of Afghanistan as a success of a failure and guess what answer most will give you? At the very best you’ll hear that it’s been a waste of life and money, the already withered Osama’s execution not withstanding. All polls show support for the war in Afghanistan is plummeting. Every day we are still there is a “foreign/military affairs failure”, and we will still be there by the next election.
11) The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign/military affairs. XXPoint Obama.XX
Undecided. I’m being generous, considering the withdrawal from Iraq, as illusory as it may be, may cancel out the failure of our mission in Afghanistan.
XXFinal score (again, we stress, on Lichtman’s scorecard): 9-3-1, Obama wins.XX
Wow, what an arrogantly lazy assessment. He earns a living with this sh*t??? Anyway, I say a score of 4-4-5 possibly shaking out to a 6-5-2 if we grace Obama with (2) and (4) and the Republican candidate with (5). Either way, this is shaping up to be a bloody battle royal if ever there was one.