Do ‘keys to the White House’ go for or against Obama?
Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, says he has a certain formula for predicting the winner of the presidential race. He has 13 “keys to the White House.” If six of the 13 go against the party currently holding the presidency, that party will lose. Otherwise, it will win.
Since 1984, he says, this formula has never been wrong about the winner of the popular vote (with the caveat that Al Gore of course won the popular vote but not the presidency).
He explained these keys recently to Paul Bedard of U.S. News & World Report:
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Of these 13, there are just two that are objectively indisputable and not subject to change: No. 1 goes against President Obama (the Democrats hold fewer House seats now than when he took office) and No. 3 goes for him (he’s an incumbent).
The ones leaning Obama’s way are: No. 2 (despite speculation, I don’t think Hillary Clinton or any other Democrat is going to challenge him); No. 4 (despite some grumbling from labor unions, I think any third-party challenger would be more likely to take votes from a Republican than Obama); and No. 11 (the killing of Osama bin Laden almost certainly fulfills this requirement).
The one leaning against him is No. 6 (given that per capita GDP growth averaged 3.3 percent from 2001 to 2008 and has averaged just 0.4 percent in 2009 and 2010, and given what we know about GDP growth so far in 2011, it would take a true miracle for this one to go Obama’s way).
In my view, that leaves seven of the 13 factors in play. Some of them are less likely to break against Obama than others — for example, while the violent flash mobs in some U.S. inner cities could spark something larger, it’s unlikely that No. 8 (sustained social unrest) will turn against Obama. Here are my thoughts on the others:
- No. 5 (short term economy): We might escape a technical recession between now and next fall, but it’s likely that voters will hold the sh0rt-term economy against Obama.
- No. 7 (policy change): Lichtman describes this one as if any old change necessarily plays in the incumbent party’s favor. But given the unpopularity of Obama’s signature health-care reform — and the distinct possibility that the Supreme Court will overturn all or part of the law before the election — I think there’s a good chance this one goes against the president.
- No. 9 (scandal): So far, there’s nothing that would qualify. But Congress and the media are still digging into the ATF’s “gunwalker” operation, and just yesterday there was a significant personnel shuffle related to it. It still has time to blow up between now and next fall. So, while I think this ends up on Obama’s side of the ledger as of today, that’s subject to change.
- No. 10 (major military/foreign policy failure): Not to date. But with hot wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, as well as continuing drone attacks in Pakistan, Yemen and elsewhere, there’s too much time for something bad to happen on this front. This one is uncertain.
- No. 12 (incumbent charisma): Three years ago, this would have been a shoo-in for Obama. But he has not had much success lately in personally selling policies to the public. He’s been described even by his own supporters as being distant, cold and too quick to fold in the face of GOP demands. I think this one could go either way by the time we get to November 2012.
- No. 13 (challenger charisma): Well, that depends on the challenger, doesn’t it? I think Mitt Romney at this point would not be described as “charismatic,” but Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann could easily wear that label. Still TBD.
By my count, that’s six in or leaning toward Obama’s favor, and four against him or leaning that way — with three up in the air. Lichtman, on the other hand, scores it 9-3 in Obama’s favor with just one TBD (read the U.S. News piece to see how he gets to that count).
What say you?
– By Kyle Wingfield
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104 comments Add your comment
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
2:04 pm
“can you say the same of the GOP puppet that will be in the race?”
And this President isn’t a puppet in his own right?
Please.
carlosgvv
August 31st, 2011
2:34 pm
Tiberius 11:57 – “why the hate”
This from the person who calls himself “your lightning rod of hate”?
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
2:34 pm
Carlos….great job not answering his question.
Rafe Hollister
August 31st, 2011
2:36 pm
Jefferson, that would be Marcy’s husband and Al Bundy’s neighbor.
Rafe Hollister
August 31st, 2011
2:43 pm
Tiberius, you are much too conservative my friend. Presidential elections are a state by state slog, not a national popularity contest. Obama will not win in VA again and with Kasich as Gov, his prospects in OH are not good. FL has to go Rep, as the Cubans (and hopefully the Jewish vote wakes up to his dislike of Isreal) and geezers have no incentive to vote for Barry. He is taking 500B from their Medicare program remember. I think it is going to be an Electoral College Blowout, the popular vote will be closer.
As for the Senate, I think ARK will toss Blanche, George Allen will win in VA if they vote Rep in the pres race. There are several other “conservative” Dems who voted for Obamacare, that will get tossed as well. We may lose Scott Brown, but can’t think of many others. Due to redistricting should pick up some house Rep seats as well. Good Times ahead, we hope.
Gm
August 31st, 2011
2:48 pm
UGA 1999
Thank God Florida does not fall in the tradition red neck south that vote for good old boys no matter how they screw up the state.
You would never give Obama any credit no matter what, just like Florida kicking your butt the last 18 out of 21 shows the character Georgia has none.
ByteMe
August 31st, 2011
2:50 pm
and with Kasich as Gov, his prospects in OH are not good
Kasich is not liked at all in Ohio. You should look up what’s been happening in the Midwest polls since 2010.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
2:51 pm
Gm….redneck south….haha that is funny. I give Obama plenty of credit! Credit for most of the mess we are in today. Thank you very much Barack!
So now you want to talk about football? Haha mature Gm really mature.
Junior Samples
August 31st, 2011
2:54 pm
Kyle,
You need to dig deeper for that scoop that’ll land you on the front page of every newpaper in the country.
Who does Puxatawny Phil predict for the presidential race?
Junior Samples
August 31st, 2011
2:56 pm
GM,
the panhandle is called the riviera?
Junior Samples
August 31st, 2011
2:57 pm
the (what?) riviera?
Gm
August 31st, 2011
2:58 pm
UGA 1999
Look at the piece of scum D. Cheney going around taking shots at former members of his party, I guess you like that bigot? , he can never change the fact 3,000 Americans died under his watch.
jconservative
August 31st, 2011
3:00 pm
Interesting discussion.
Obama will get 46% of the popular vote. The Republican nominee will get 46% of the popular vote.
The Independents, that illusive 8% of the voters, will decide who the next president will be. As they always do.
The question becomes, how will the challenger do against the incumbent? It is a head to head challenge for both. How will the Independents perceive the two candidates? And perception does matter.
The danger for challengers is always the sound bites played back from the in-party fight for the nomination. The danger for challengers is always the “skeletons” in the closet.
Of the top three Republicans I see the following:
Bachmann can’t seem to keep her foot out of her mouth. She just cannot stay on message. She would be a poor candidate.
Romney has the albatross of Romneycare and the label of “the former liberal Republican Governor of Massachusetts”. He will look silly criticizing Obamacare and accusing Obama of being liberal. He is a liberal.
Perry has his “love letter” to Hillary Clinton and his chairmanship of the Texas “Gore for President” campaign around his neck. The National Democratic Party will send every voter in the nation a copy of Perry’s endorsement of Hillary’s National Health Care Plan. He smells liberal from way back.
Isn’t there a plain speaking, clean record, Conservative Republican candidate somewhere in that party?
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
3:01 pm
Gm….And which president could have killed Bin Laden over 12 years ago? And you blame the Repubs for 9/11 nice job! haha
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
3:04 pm
jconservative…..do you really want to bring up “plain speaking, clean record” when we are discussing Obama? That is rich!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
3:06 pm
Funny how all these Republicans “aren’t very well liked” but they keep getting elected.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
3:10 pm
Lil Barry……that is an oxymoron. Not very well liked but keep getting elected. What does that tell you about the public perception of the Demoncrats?
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
3:20 pm
Quiet….
Penny Lane
August 31st, 2011
4:07 pm
The real question is, will there be a third party contender. If there is a conservative third party candidate, then they will split the vote with the official GOP nominee – and Obama wins. Remember, Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992 with only 43% of the vote because Ross Perot and George Bush senior split the rest.
If the Tea Party decides to run an independent third party candidate, then Barck Obama will almost certainly win.
Go Tea Party!
Lil' Bushie Bailout (Revised Upwards)
August 31st, 2011
4:11 pm
Lil Barry……that is an oxymoron. Not very well liked but keep getting elected.
___________________________________________________
That the voters are voting for the Republicans holding their noses.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
4:35 pm
“This from the person who calls himself “your lightning rod of hate”?”
Carlos, the English language eludes you sometimes.
A lightning rod ATTRACTS lighting, so does a lightning rod of hate attract hate.
Such as yours.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
4:43 pm
“The real question is, will there be a third party contender.”
There will be NO third-party candidate in 2012. Not even the Tea Party will be dumb enough to do so.
“If there is a conservative third party candidate, then they will split the vote with the official GOP nominee – and Obama wins.”
Which is why there won’t be a third-party candidate in such a closely decided election cycle.
“Remember, Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992 with only 43% of the vote because Ross Perot and George Bush senior split the rest.”
Sorry, Penny, but turn in your Presidential Election history badge. Polls showed that the Perot factor wasn’t a split at all; in fact, Clinton’s electoral victory would have been much higher if Perot wasn’t in the race. George H.W. Bush was NEVER going to win that election – Ross Perot or no Ross Perot.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
4:59 pm
Rafe, I’m sorry but you paint too rosy a picture.
When both the Republican and Democrat brands are as damaged as they BOTH are right now, no one is going to flock to the polls in numbers great enough to make a large swing either way, and there are too many swing states that could teeter by just a few thousand votes on Wednesday morning.
This election is gong to be driven by fear if the other side’s candidate get elected, except if Romney is nominated by the GOP. He’s no liberal, as jconservative asserts; he’s a moderate. Mass. passed health care because Romney was the governor of a state that has a veto-proof very Democrat/liberal majority in both the State House and the Senate. At the time, there were just over a dozen GOP legislators serving in both Houses COMBINED. That Romney took any credit for it at the time was because he LIMITED it to being something less unworkable – it was going to get passed despite any attempts by him to stop it, and overridden handily if he vetoed it.
He can, and has, beaten up this President pretty well on the economy and will continue to do so as long as he keeps providing fodder for Republicans. The Romneycare issue will be a non-issue.
And I agree that Blanche Lincoln is likely gone, and I think the GOP picks up Senate seats of those retiring in Montana and the Dakotas. I’m not as sure about George Allen taking back his seat; he’s always been a bit of an empty suit.
On the Presidential side, FL and OH are still in play for both sides. An unpopular President is being offset by unpopular GOP governors today. There is still plenty of time for those governor’s poll numbers to improve, especially as their policies show fiscal improvement as they do in OH.
marko
August 31st, 2011
5:27 pm
Congrats Kyle. I’d have to say that was a pretty fair and balanced assessment of Obama’s chances. Like you said, there’s a lot that could happen between now and then. Can Mitt buy a personality? Will the party faithful stomach a Mormon rhino? Can Perry keep his boots out of his mouth? Will the Hillary slide into the VP slot and inspire the faithful?
I know one thing for sure, I’m going to love every minute of it. Politics is reality TV for people will functioning brains. This race figures to be a real doozy. One really exciting prospect could be the Republicans showing up without enough electoral votes to seal the deal. No made for TV, gag me please coronation, but a real honest to God political convention. That would be something most of us have only read about in history books.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
6:28 pm
carlosgvv doesn’t know what a lightning rod is for. Another victim of public schools, obviously.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
6:32 pm
The one thing that could keep the GOP from going to a brokered convention is the lemming factor that Americans have developed over the years.
There’s been a growing trend that “voting one’s conscience” is being overtaken by “voting for the leader”, as in people want to be associated with someone that is winning. If the same person wins a couple of early primaries, lemmings (on the order of 5%-10%) flock to the winner and desert the candidate they were going to vote for and dooming the chances for a real, live campaign.
Streetracer
August 31st, 2011
6:47 pm
Gm @ 2:58
And how many people died on the USS Arizona on 12/7/41? Not how many died that day just on the Arizona.
Again also to you and others. I am getting real effing tired of people who call me (and folks who believe like me) a racist because with disagree with current public policy.
THE "REAL" TRUTH
August 31st, 2011
6:54 pm
So, eve with the limited strides by the President (due to a ReKluxican party’s desire to NOT participate in the business of this country), I think you’re waaaaaaayyyy off base here, Kyle.
It’s one thing to hope for a Democratic defeat in 2012, but to start grasping for straws in the pursuit of such a hope, is largely desparate.
Go DEMS!! Obama 2012
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
6:58 pm
Streetracer, don’t let it get to you, it’s just a reflection of their desperation that they have no other choice but to play that card. They’re losers, they’ll always be losers.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
7:05 pm
The “Real” Truth, if you want to make an attempt at an intelligent post, you might not want to use the ReKluxican” label.
Otherwise, you’ve limited yourself to the “I have nothing but racist name calling” standard.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
August 31st, 2011
7:33 pm
14. Deeply Unpopular and Despised makes it 13-1 against obozo unless Bruno Clinton enters the race.
Streetracer
August 31st, 2011
7:44 pm
LiL’ Barry @ 6:58
I know but I had ancestors who fought (and some got dead) in “Bleeding Kansas”, years before the civil war. Kinda pi$$e$ me off though.
double
August 31st, 2011
9:04 pm
I don’t think I would criticize Obama on Lybia…If you must have war this is way to go.Get all ducks in row.Very low money cost,no American casualties.And to say he is not a leader.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
9:07 pm
Obozo was a follower on Libya. He’ll gladly take the credit for the work of others though.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
9:09 pm
Tell us about Obozo’s great leadership in coming up with that whole “Fast and Furious” idea.
Oops, not a good example for the Obozo receptacles.
Butch Cassidy
August 31st, 2011
9:24 pm
Enter your comments here
Butch Cassidy
August 31st, 2011
9:27 pm
People are sheep. As long as the remote works and the beer is cold, and nothing really intereferes with that, they will continue to vote for whoever is currently in charge. Only the party faithful rant and rave. Hate to tell you, but you better start focusing on 2016, 2012 will go to Obama.
Rod
August 31st, 2011
9:37 pm
Kyle,
We get the government we deserve. If more than 1/2 of the voters want Bachman or Perry running this country, the world will certify us an insane. Hope you guys have someone else in the wings.
hryder
August 31st, 2011
9:53 pm
I just want the man out of the Oval Office. He reached his level of imcompetence when sworn into office as President.(the Peter Principle) Plus the fact that he consistently utters statements that are far removed from fact or truth. The last statement, however, does not create much angst among the media or his fellow Democrats.
Lynnie Gal
August 31st, 2011
10:20 pm
Obama will win if Perry gets the nomination, which is looking likely. If Romney gets the nod, he’ll have a much tougher run, but Obama will probably still win because religious bigots don’t like mormons. If people are paying attention to what’s going on here, the Dems will score big the next election and the Tea Party will have blown up the R party for many years to come. Republicans, guided by TP, want American workers to fail, have no jobs and no bargaining rights, and make certain that ordinary people can’t get healthcare or Social Security. I don’t think this is a winning policy with most people. United we bargain, divided we beg. And that goes for all people who work for a living.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
11:01 pm
“Republicans, guided by TP, want American workers to fail, have no jobs and no bargaining rights, and make certain that ordinary people can’t get healthcare or Social Security.”
Really?
Because I haven’t seen any bill or any statements from any Republican that lends any credence whatsoever to your post, Lynnie Gal.
Maybe you could provide something other than Democrat talking points?
double
September 1st, 2011
1:16 am
Obama shows greatness again,conceding speech time.DC area wet enough.Great leader
Toussaint Carver
September 1st, 2011
1:48 am
Streetracer, those were your ancestors and have nothing to do with how you may feel about blacks. I had black relatives that owned slaves, so what’s your point?
Let’s see if you are going to follow protocol, and say that you have a black friend. Or you have black friends that never bring race into your discussions, and also disagree with Obama.
Spare me. I have seen it all before.
Streetracer
September 1st, 2011
5:16 am
Toussaint Carver @ 1:48
Alright, I’ll be a little more personal. I’ve never used the N word in my life, but I’ve been call “white motherbleep” more times than I can count. Being a dumb conservative male, I can count to twenty-one.
That help you any.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 1st, 2011
6:07 am
“bigots don’t like mormons”
—————————-
Exhibit A: Democrat and Obamamedia criticism of Mitt Romney.
Democrats: Bigots.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 1st, 2011
8:16 am
Just saw a recent photo of Obozo wearing a US flag pin.
Don’t cry though, Dems, he’s still the America-hater you know and love. The flag pin is for the moderates.
sircharles19
September 1st, 2011
9:31 am
The question should be who is best to lead this country…and without a lot of restrains. There is no other person right now, maybe for the next election after 2012 four years, it could be woman and things for the US will be unexplainable. Right now, the best person is our sitting President. Congress needs to work with him to get America rolling again! We are in a very bad situation regardless how people think and feel. It is what it is! We need all of the support we can get and that is no lie!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
September 1st, 2011
9:49 am
Except that your Idiot Messiah is doing all the wrong things, if the objectives are faster economic growth, lower unemployment, and smaller deficits.
Morrus
September 1st, 2011
9:50 am
Bachmann, charisma? Marty Feldman, sure……
NameJacker
September 1st, 2011
9:57 am
Really? Really?