2012 Tuesday: A Republican reprise of 2008 or 1980?
At this stage of presidential politics, with months to go before the first meaningful ballots are cast, everyone loves the horse race: Who’s in? Who’s out? Who’s up? Who’s down?
Right now, the who’s in/out appears to be settled for the 2012 GOP contest. Who’s up is definitely Rick Perry: The Texas governor has soared to a 5-point lead over Mitt Romney in the Real Clear Politics polling average as of today, including double-digit leads in all but one major national poll taken since he officially became a candidate.
But does any of it matter?
A lot of people — particularly those who support trailing candidates — point to the 2008 GOP primary as reason to discount current polling for the 2012 contest. After all, on this date in 2007, everyone just knew that Rudy Giuliani was going to be the Republican nominee (matched up against Hillary Clinton, of course). In fact, here’s how the RCP polling average stacked up on Aug. 30, 2007:
Giuliani –27.9 percent
Fred Thompson — 16.9
Mitt Romney — 14.1
John McCain — 11.1
Mike Huckabee — 3.4
Other/Don’t Know — 26.6
The top two candidates by the end of the primaries were of course McCain and Huckabee. Giuliani led in the polls for another 129 days, until it became clear his strategy of waiting for the Florida primary was a disaster. It might seem incredible in hindsight, given that everyone thinks he was a quick flame-out, but Thompson actually ran second into early December. And then he was eclipsed not by McCain, with whom he ran closely for a couple of weeks longer, but Huckabee — whose support doubled between Dec. 1 and the middle of that month.
As New York Times blogger Nate Silver pointed out earlier this year, however, 2008 was an anomaly. In every other election since 1972 in which there was no Republican incumbent — plus 1976, when Gerald Ford faced a strong challenge from Ronald Reagan — the GOP’s eventual nominee was leading in the polls nearly a year and a half before Election Day. (The Democrats are a different matter.)
In most years since then (Silver picked 1972 because it marked the beginning of the modern primary system), the eventual GOP nominee had a solid lead. From 1992 through 2000, the most recent open contests prior to 2008, it wasn’t even close.
But if there’s a primary that compares to this one better than 2008, I think it’s 1980.
In the first half of 1979, Reagan held a relatively narrow lead over Ford, who didn’t publicly rule out running for the nomination until several states had already held their primaries. Then there were a couple of other holdovers from 1976, Howard Baker and John Connally, running a respectable third and fourth. (Interestingly, Reagan’s eventual closest challenger and running mate, George H.W. Bush, was running well back in the pack at that point.)
And then, as now, the contest became a matter of the yahoo, super-conservative former big-state governor derided as dangerous and possibly dumb (Reagan and now Perry) versus the establishment’s pick (Bush and now Romney).
Things were of course different then: There had never been a Reagan in the White House, although Barry Goldwater had laid the foundation for his run during his unsuccessful run against incumbent Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. On the other hand, plenty of people have compared Barack Obama’s first term to that of Jimmy Carter — who, like Obama, had come to office in large part as a rebuke to the GOP after eight turbulent years.
So, the question comes down to whether Perry, like Reagan, will manage to convince voters that he’s a serious enough candidate and challenger to the incumbent president — or whether, like McCain, Romney will prove that the “safer” pick who’s waited his turn will get the nomination.
And the answer is:
Well, you know what they say about past performance not being indicative of future results.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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85 comments Add your comment
Romney Steps Up Campaign as Perry Surges – Wall Street Journal (blog) | Conservatives for America
August 30th, 2011
6:31 pm
[...] fieldJewish Telegraphic AgencyRomney addresses VFW convention in TexasBoston GlobeReuters -Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) -Huffington Post (blog)all 1,256 news [...]
bj jones
August 30th, 2011
6:48 pm
Rafe Hollister – I didn’t mean to come off as a Obama supporter! Big mistake. No I am looking for honesty and integrity. If we can actually get somebody who believes what they say, then we can regain trust again.
Rafe Hollister
August 30th, 2011
7:33 pm
No I am looking for honesty and integrity. If we can actually get somebody who believes what they say, then we can regain trust again.
bjjones, I am with you on that, however, these are politicians we are talking about, you may be setting the standard a little high. These days if you believe something the least bit non PC, you are laughed at and ridiculed, so many of them can only mouth sound bites and platitudes. Oblamer certainly does not believe all that stuff he reads off the teleprompter, he is just campaigning constantly.
West Indian Charlie
August 30th, 2011
8:36 pm
I pray for a President who appeal to and have the support of the majority of the American people. You can not govern for only a narrow base of the electorate. These Republican Candidates seems to me like they only want to appease the Tea Party and other far right party supporters. You have to appeal to and reach out to the whole and not the twenty percent or so of the electorate.
I think that if the Republicans have their way we will rapidly descent into a plutocracy sooner than later.
How Rick Perry Got Rich on the Job – The Atlantic | Live Newsline
August 30th, 2011
8:36 pm
[...] Texas (The Note)ABC News (blog)How Rick Perry became a millionaireSalonTexas Tribune -Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) -Boston Globeall 1,311 news [...]
Rod
August 30th, 2011
9:21 pm
Let’s face it, Perry and Bachman scare the general public. You want someone if that office who does not appear to be crazy. This election is going to be won, in the middle. With the economy looking like it might start another recession, someone wise and steady, is desperately needed for that office. Paw did not catch on, that leaves Romney. If the party can’t warm up to him, it is over.
Rafe Hollister
August 30th, 2011
9:26 pm
Another four years of Oblamer scares the bejesus out of me.
ex-Georgian
August 30th, 2011
11:18 pm
The only people who will vote against Obama in 2012 are angry, old, white trash. And there a lot fewer of them now than in 2008 — not only are they are dying like flies, but their fat, meth-addled, slut women have a very low birthrate.
double
August 30th, 2011
11:20 pm
You all have Jed run him.
double
August 30th, 2011
11:22 pm
Sorry about that Jeb.
double
August 30th, 2011
11:28 pm
ex-georgian was you one of those slut womens miscarriage
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 30th, 2011
11:36 pm
“The only people who will vote against Obama in 2012 are angry, old, white trash. And there a lot fewer of them now than in 2008 — not only are they are dying like flies, but their fat, meth-addled, slut women have a very low birthrate.”
Well, didn’t THAT just drop the IQ of this thread . . .
HDB
August 31st, 2011
2:12 am
If people would actually RESEARCH the records of those from the GOP, it would be quite evident that the party of the rich, by the rich…and for the rich has strayed from its intended path….and those who VOTE for Republican candidates only seek to improve THEIR riches rather than improving the NATION’S wealth! When a standing GOP governor calls for secession (rick Perry), and that same governor states that his policies created a better business environment…but had to balance the state budget by the INFLUX of FEDERAL CASH (which he decried!), CUT educational spending…thereby creating a decline in an educated work force, and creating a business atmosphere that ONLY created low-wage jobs (this, too, is Rick Perry)……can ANYONE logically believe that we need ANOTHER mistake from Texas???
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
August 31st, 2011
6:10 am
Moderate Line: My biggest worry for Perry as a candidate blah blah blah
—————-
Yeah, I’m sure you’re really worried for Perry. What you’re worried about is that he has a great record on job creation while your Idiot Messiah has been a pathetic loser.
Bill Campbell
August 31st, 2011
6:42 am
Laurel and Hardy is better than Obama and Biden! How can anyone talk about putting your foot in your mouth when the clown Biden is out there saying crazy stuff everyday and gets a pass with the national liberal news people! Obama is using regulations to change the country without the the approval of congress and the dumb masses don’t realize what he is doing again in the backrooms because the stupid stuff is reported instead!
Dirty Harry
August 31st, 2011
6:46 am
The only people who will vote for Obama in 2012 are Blacks but there may be less because they keep shooting each other!
JDW
August 31st, 2011
7:41 am
@Tiberius…”Now, if you want to challenge the heavyweights at the most prestigious scientific research facility on the planet, feel free to do so, but your house of cards on man-made global warming is about to come tumbling down.”
More HORSE HOOHEY from you and the rest of the Con Nation. CERN has discovered a bit more about how clouds are formed and they state that current climate models need to be adjusted to account for this discovery. At no point in time did they either study or debunk the theory that man made emissions have impact on climate change. This was not included in the study.
What you have is a bunch of Con websites making unfounded assumptions using partial data. I am so surprised.
http://press.web.cern.ch/press/PressReleases/Releases2011/PR15.11E.html
jconservative
August 31st, 2011
8:50 am
Rick Perry to Hillary Rodham Clinton, First Lady, on April 6, 1993.
“I think your efforts in trying to reform the nation’s health care system are most commendable.”
“I would like to request that the task force give particular consideration to the needs of the nation’s farmers, ranchers, and agriculture workers, and other members of rural communities,”… “Rural populations have a high proportion of uninsured people, rising health care costs, and often experience lack of services.”
“Again, your efforts are worthy, and I hope you will remember this constituency as the task force progresses.”
I smell a Liberal lurking in the bush.
LtCol Razorback,
August 31st, 2011
9:06 am
getalife – get a life.:) Ain’t no way Obama is going to be a two-term president. His “American Recovery and Rehabilitation Act” only served to quadruple the National debt and gave us nothing to show for it. We haven’t recovered economically and not one damn thing has been rehabilitated. Big government is the problem, not the solution. Tax and spend Dems tout “taxing the rich” as the panacea for all of our problems, but taxing the rich falls impossibly short of increasing revenues to pay the interest on the national debt, let alone paying down the principle. I haven’t made up my mind about any of the GOP hopefuls, but I do believe that any of them from Perry to Palin would make a better president than Baa rak.
getalife
August 31st, 2011
9:17 am
The gop are the wealth care party.
They laugh at broke cons for blindly voting for the wealth care party.
Gullible fools.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
9:24 am
“At no point in time did they either study or debunk the theory that man made emissions have impact on climate change. This was not included in the study.”
Yeah, JDW, which is why the global warming community worked for almost ten years to stop the experiment from happening.
jconservative
August 31st, 2011
9:24 am
” His “American Recovery and Rehabilitation Act” only served to quadruple the National debt and gave us nothing to show for it”
I am not an Obama supporter as all of you regulars know.
But it is not necessary to write “falsehoods” to defeat Obama. We can do it with the truth.
The National Debt handed to Obama was $12.104 trillion. It is $14.625 trillion as of 8/29/11, the latest number from the Bureau of the Public Debt. To “quadruple” the National Debt he received would give us a $48.420 trillion National Debt today.
We can defeat Obama with the truth. Falsehoods are not necessary.
JF McNamara
August 31st, 2011
9:44 am
Let’s hope Huntsman can get off the mat and do some damage.
??
August 31st, 2011
9:58 am
Houston, TX can report an AP story about APD, but AJC can’t? Seems a bit shady. What gives AJC? http://www.chron.com/news/article/Audit-85-Atlanta-officers-lost-arrest-powers-2148062.php
MarkV
August 31st, 2011
10:11 am
Dirty Harry @6:46 am: “The only people who will vote for Obama in 2012 are Blacks but there may be less because they keep shooting each other!”
Well, didn’t THAT just drop the IQ of this thread . . .
getalife
August 31st, 2011
10:14 am
They are not cons anymore.
They are wealthers fighting for the wealth care party.
The wealthy can get all the money in this country and the wealthers will still blindly fight for them.
Leaving their kids with no chance of making a livable wage.
You can’t fix this kind of ignorance.
You just have to laugh.
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
10:45 am
“You can’t fix this kind of ignorance.”
Yeah, because “wealthers” isn’t even a word . . .
Ignorance indeed!
Junior Samples
August 31st, 2011
11:01 am
Follow the advice of your favorite prognosticator. “Follow the money”.
Whoever ends up with the most pac money wins the RNC nomination.
Everything that happens between now and then is just fodder for the 24hr news folks. It gives them something to do.
Junior Samples
August 31st, 2011
11:02 am
??
http://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta/85-apd-officer-didnt-1152477.html
RIF
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
11:03 am
Perry or Romney will be the nominee this go round.
Lil' Bushie Bailout (Revised Upward)
August 31st, 2011
11:05 am
Another four years of Oblamer scares the bejesus out of me.
________________________________________________________
Welcome to 2004.
Nat Turner
August 31st, 2011
11:09 am
I continue to support Jon Huntman. And if it were just on his stance of evolution and climate change, then I wouldn’t have posted his accomplishments.
Everything that was listed, I support his views on it. The man is level-headed, and makes sound responses without some foolishness coming out behind it.
And I guess you would find him boring like Al Gore because he doesn’t exaggerate a Southern accent, talk about not taking kindly to certain folks down in Texas, or talk about a hurricane being from God to wake up D.C.
Jon Huntsman for president! 2012!
Tiberius - Your lightning rod of hate!
August 31st, 2011
11:18 am
No, he’s boring because he has no inflection in his speaking voice at all, and he exhibits ZERO passion on the campaign trail.
NONE.
Milquetoast never gets elected, no matter how smart they are or how good they can govern.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
11:19 am
Tiberius…..agreed.
UGA 1999
August 31st, 2011
11:46 am
eveyone leave?