Georgia’s power base jumps right over Atlanta, Democrats
The giant sucking sound expected after last year’s census — pulling statehouse seats, and with them political power, from the southern part of the state into metro Atlanta — isn’t quite as loud as everyone expected.
Or maybe it just depends on how we define “southern” and “metro Atlanta.”
Leading up to the census, South Georgia was bracing itself for a huge loss of clout: perhaps half a dozen of the 45 or so House seats below the fall line (Columbus to Macon to Augusta), and maybe two or three of the region’s 15 Senate seats, too.
The implications for politics and policy were huge. From education (school choice) to transportation (Atlanta congestion versus “four-lanes to nowhere”) to water (interbasin transfers), the continuation of a long northward shift potentially meant big changes.
In the event, redistricting data for Georgia do reveal that roughly six House seats and a Senate seat or two will move northward. Yet, about half of the loss may come not from true South Georgia, but from DeKalb and Fulton counties.
That’s right: The counties at Atlanta’s core stand to lose about as many seats as the rural, not-so-densely populated, southern half of the state.
That duo’s loss equals a boost for three other counties: Gwinnett is in line to pick up two House seats, Cherokee and Forsyth another one apiece.
Draw an arc starting at Cherokee’s border with Bartow County, continuing across Forsyth and through northern and eastern Gwinnett, over to the Walton County line, and you’ll cross seven current House districts. After redistricting, those seven could be 11.
Along that same arc, but in the other legislative chamber, Sen. Jack Murphy, R-Cumming, saw his Cherokee-Forsyth district grow from the state’s fourth-smallest by population to its absolute largest during the past decade. Murphy and Sen. Renee Unterman, R-Buford, currently represent three Senate seats worth of people — a pretty significant shift.
Throw in the fact that Georgia’s new 14th Congressional District is likely to be drawn somewhere between Woodstock and Gainesville, and it looks like the state’s power base has leaped completely over Atlanta to the northern, GOP-leaning suburbs and exurbs. (An exception is Cobb, where moderate population growth may mean a slight relative decline — maybe the loss of one of the House seats it now shares with another county.)
The population shift wasn’t equal in Fulton and DeKalb. House districts in those counties represented by Republicans grew at almost exactly the same pace as the rest of the state. The population loss was all in Democratic-held areas.
There are obvious policy implications, starting with next year’s transportation-tax referendum: The project list needs to reflect this northward population shift if the tax is to pass.
Beyond that, Georgia’s Democrats, still smarting from last year’s electoral thumping, ought to think long and hard about what it says about them and their policies that their power base is shrinking so fast.
The 22 House districts that lost the most people during the 2000s all elected Democrats last year (though two of the 22 switched to the GOP after the election). Meanwhile, just three of the 24 fastest-growing districts went their way.
Democrats, particularly in the House under the leadership of Rep. Stacey Abrams, had their moments during the 2011 legislative session. But a party that can’t win outside a few relatively shrinking urban pockets is doomed to rising irrelevance.
– By Kyle Wingfield
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
87 comments Add your comment
Lil' Barry Bailout
May 7th, 2011
9:16 pm
Sister Sarah: Stop lying. The Democrats left the party and became Republican when the Democratic party began to embrace and pass legislation granting Civil Rights to Black Americans.
—————————
Hmm…what year was it that the Civil Rights Act was passed? And what year was it that Republicans won control of the Georgia legislature?
Stop being a racist, Sister Sarah.
Michael H. Smith
May 7th, 2011
9:19 pm
Nearly 50 legislators owe Georgia money
~ By James Salzer
Forty-seven Georgia legislators, about 20 percent of the General Assembly, owed the state money as of Friday morning because they were late filing campaign finance reports — or didn’t file the reports at all, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution review of state records.
The sums involved are relatively small, but some of the late fees among legislators date back almost a decade. In total, legislators owe about $11,000 in late fees, according to state ethics commission records. These are the same legislators who write ethics laws and fund the ethics commission.
http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/nearly-50-legislators-owe-938501.html
Which political party has the greatest number of violators, according to this report (*see the print edition)?
Linda
May 7th, 2011
9:21 pm
Sister Sarah@8:37, What a pitiful attempt to inject racism into the parties. For the most part, our children are not racists. They get along. They do not even see colors. The only racists left in America today are a few old reverends from decades that use their clout to stir up their minions. .
Michael H. Smith
May 7th, 2011
9:29 pm
Linda@9:09 pm – You might want to reevaluate how much you and loonygal have in common on education, particularly on money spent for the results achieved.
Michael H. Smith
May 7th, 2011
9:41 pm
Linda@9:21 pm – We know Democrats can’t speak to individuals, as an individual. Democrats must speak to people only as a skin color or an economic class in group terms. Otherwise, without using these “social crutches” they must rely upon they are too “mentally weak” to conduct a civil coherent conversation.
WorkinDawg
May 7th, 2011
10:42 pm
Sister Sarah, you are very much correct, there is in fact institutional raceme today. Some jobs go to companies run by preferred races. Colleges let in less qualified students if they are a preferred race. Big corporations hire less qualified applicants if they are a preferred race. Every level of government seeks out preferred races.
Funny that the actual racists are usually the ones hollering about how racist everyone else is. Perhaps you should reflect on what “equality” means…cause changing the color of the victims and the perpetrators makes it no less racist.
Road Scholar
May 8th, 2011
7:57 am
M H Smith; And what political office does Kyle fill? Then the ELECTED repubs discounted the appraisal by GSU. Had they done their own? And still touted the bill? We need solutions… that have been tested and examined. Not just firing from the hip! And I’m not trying to sell anyone a bill of goods, pal.
Dirty Dawg
May 8th, 2011
8:36 am
There was a time when Atlanta was widely considered the Gem of the South…and because of it Georgia was considered a forward-thinking and acting state and a prime example of ‘The New South’. Now this.
Name one other large, metropolitan, economic hub of any other Southern State that is treated by the rest of the state and by the State’s elected officials like Atlanta is….you can’t, and as a result the Charlotte’s and the Nashville’s and virtually all of the others are thriving and growing because they are doing it together.
Abe Lincoln said ‘A house divided cannot stand’. He was referring to the US and it’s slave versus non-slave states at the time, but it’s as true now about Georgia as it ever was 150 years ago. And the saddest thing…hell, the only thing…driving the way the Republican leadership (sic) looks on Atlanta is prejudice and hate. You guys keep it up and in another twenty years they’ll be talking about us like we were Detroit, only we won’t have an automobile industry that could turn things around for us.
Sam Massell once used the phrase ‘Atlanta…a city too young to die.’…as his re-election theme against Maynard Jackson. At the time it was received with disdain from the, then, forward-thinking white power structure. Now it would likely be cheered on, certainly by the surrounding counties.
If we don’t do a better job of working in tandem – state and city – this state will soon become the laughing stock of the nation – of course our Republican Congressmen are already, but fortunately most of the rest of the country hasn’t yet connected dots between those idiots and the idiots that keep putting ‘em back in office…or have they?
Michael H. Smith
May 8th, 2011
9:44 am
Road Scholar – It doesn’t matter what political office Kyle holds. Fact is PAL!, Kyle went over this tax plan before your champ Stacy made her disclosure. And, several of us made negative comments based on what we read from Kyle’s analysis of it. Solutions are needed, indeed; so what has Stacy got? What have the Democrats got? Zero.
Proven solutions is what you want? Really? Then don’t look to Stacy and the Democrats. And, don’t tell me about her great disclosure to attack me personally, then claim you’re not selling a bill of goods, cause I ain’t buying it.
Here’s one of Stacy’s proven solutions in her own words:
Federal Race to the Top monies offer the state’s underperforming education system a crucible to prove out theories of independence coupled with appropriate levels of funding. Georgia has taken critical steps on the first and has a depressing record on the second. Until we as a state recognize the intractable link between the two, our quest for the jobs of the near future will continue to be hamstrung.
Are you buying this one Roads? I’m not. And, she wants to experiment on unfounded theoretical approaches that have not, as you demand, be proven.
Fact Rep. Stacy, the U.S. ranks third in the world on spending for education and achieves dismal results ranking 14th and worse in some areas as for the results. So Rep. Stacy you want more money for education, so your answer is to “throw more money at the problem”, which has been a proven failure, as year after year we spend more to get less.
Excerpt:
Since 1985, federal education spending tripled, yet studies by the National Assessment of Educational Progress show reading, math and science scores remained flat. Internationally, our 8th graders rank 14th in reading, 17th in science and 25th in math. Almost 30 percent of our teenagers don’t finish high school, according to the National Center for Education Statistics, and half who enter college drop out, even though per pupil spending nationally averages more than $10,000 a year. America has fallen to 9th in the proportion of young people with a college degree.
Despite those numbers, most educators say American schools are under-funded.
http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2011/04/08/taxpayer-calculator-education-spending
End excerpt.
Keep your “crucible to prove out theories of independence” Stacy, for right here in Georgia there has been a proven model of success and it was done… are you ready for this Roads, Stacy… for less money!
WorkinDawg
May 8th, 2011
9:57 am
Dirty Dawg, the city of atlanta pols are complete morons and can’t be dealt with in a reasonable manner. That is the problem with the Atl vs the rest of the state. This is an area that elects folks who sit in front of our highest military officials and discuss Guam tipping over. How are you supposed to deal with that level of ignorance?
Lil' Barry Bailout
May 8th, 2011
10:14 am
Dems are all for trying new solutions to the education mess they’ve created…as long as they involve spending vast sums of other people’s money and enhancing their ability to get reelected.. Of course, any free market ideas, school choice, or reducing the influence of teacher’s unions need not apply.
Edward
May 8th, 2011
10:15 am
You people are just too easy. You proved MY points for me. Thanks! BTW, I’m not an Obama fan nor a Democrat, so your continued use of invalid assumptions only validates my opinion further. You people, just like the GOP, are pathetic.
Michael H. Smith
May 8th, 2011
10:43 am
Interview with Truett Abbot: Proven success.
TRUETT ABBOTT, PRINCIPAL, WARREN COUNTY MIDDLE SCHOOL: Good to be here, Lou.
I want to ask you, if I may, to start out, because there are a broad myths in public education, as you very well know. I’m sure that a lot of people are already thinking, well, Principal Abbott, Warren County, must have a bunch of high-income, already well-tutored and schooled white students, and that it isn’t a very diverse place, and doesn’t face economic challenges like much of the country. But we’d all be very wrong in that assumption, wouldn’t we?
ABBOTT: Yes, we would. The jobs have moved out of Warren County in the last 10 years, as a matter of fact. We have a student population that’s 92 percent African-American, and all of our students are on 100 percent free and reduced lunch, which indicates that it’s not a high-income neighborhood. And they are beginning to — our students are beginning to be successful and we’re very proud.
DOBBS: Well, let’s — let’s show everyone just what success means and — I love that, striving for excellence. Here’s what has been accomplished at Warren Middle School, if we could see that projected up on the screen.
In 2000, 28 percent of your middle schoolers were passing the state writing test. This year, 86 percent of those schoolers passed. Now, that is very impressive.
In mathematics, in 2000, only 14 percent of eighth graders passed that test. In 2004, 88 percent. That’s remarkable progress.
We’re hearing, across the country, that we need more money, that we need more resources. Do you have more money? Is that the difference? Was it more resources? What turned around your school?
ABBOTT: The state has reduced the funding in all the counties in Georgia for three years in a row. So, we haven’t had more money, we’ve had to do with less money. The significant changes have been that we discovered that our students could not coming into the middle school could not read higher than a third great level, and they were coming to sixth grade. So we found a phonetic program, phonographic, it is called, that we could use in the classrooms to remediate the students so they could begin to read the textbooks all across the curriculum…
DOBBS: You got the parents involved, it’s the last one. You rewarded students for performance. You made class times longer. You’re fighting a national — national trend, which is to make time shorter and to reduce homework. Have you…
ABBOTT: I felt that with — if our teachers were good in doing the right things in the classrooms, we increased the core class time by 50 percent, that we would obviously make great gains. And that’s proven to be true. We involved our parents, especially, to help us to make discipline work. And that was a big part of it, making discipline work.
Taken from:
http://alexanderhamiltoninstitute.org/lp/hamilton/Insourcing%20Jobs%5CDobbs_2005%5CCriminal%20Illegal%20Aliens.htm
redneckbluedog
May 8th, 2011
10:45 am
I have no problem with South Georgia politicians…Sonny Perdue and Saxby Chambliss both used to be Democrats….I don’t think either of them is entirely crazy, unlike the electorate down there, unfortunately….
Dirty Dawg
May 8th, 2011
11:53 am
Workingdawg…thanks, you just made my point…’morons and can’t be dealt with’ = Code for…oh, nevermind. As for Hank Johnson, he’s actually DeKalb County/Decatur and just because he can’t tell a joke or use metaphors effectively (You don’t actually think he was serious about that do you?) doesn’t mean he’s ignorant…but again, for you, what it does mean is that he’s black and therefore fair game for those whose only motivation is to find fault.
WorkinDawg
May 8th, 2011
2:40 pm
Dirty Dawg, when all else fails just shout racism. The last refuge of the ignorant. Funny how throughout the entire blog the only folks bringing up race are the folks trying to defend the indefensible. And anyone who wants to argue the merits of Atlants City Government….well that Is so ridiculous it’s not worthy of debate.
Happy mothers day.
Mary Elizabeth
May 8th, 2011
3:27 pm
“A rose by any other name is still a rose.”
Today’s Georgia Republican is yesterday’s Georgia Democrat. Only the labels have changed. The
worldviews are the same. The change in labels began with Strom Thurman’s change from Democrat to Republican in the late 1960s. Georgia’s last election was simply the saturation point for this crossover of labels in Georgia. Few will abandon the thinking of their own social group because of fear of isolation – even if that thinking, in many arenas, is wrong.
Population shift is only the symptom, not the cause, of a more profound phenomenon.
Lil' Barry Bailout
May 8th, 2011
3:44 pm
Mary Elizabeth: Few will abandon the thinking of their own social group because of fear of isolation – even if that thinking, in many arenas, is wrong.
——————-
For example, we learned in the last Atlanta mayoral election that Atlantans aren’t yet ready to vote for a white person. Perhaps one day soon Atlantans will grow and achieve a higher consciousness and free themselves from the intellectual bondage of their own social group.
Mary Elizabeth
May 8th, 2011
3:52 pm
It is important for all to recognize that we are all interconnected and that what effects one, will ultimately effect us all. We must, at the very least, try not to think in simple labels and to rise, in consciousness, above the limitations of the happenstance of our birth.
WorkinDawg
May 8th, 2011
4:08 pm
Lil Barry bailout…..don’t forget about the 97% approval rating our current president enjoys with the black community. I guess that’s not the “crossover” we are looking for…..nor is it a good example of thinking outside our social group.
Mary Elizabeth
May 8th, 2011
4:20 pm
Again, We must, at the very least, try not to think in simple labels and to rise, in consciousness, above the limitations of the happenstance of our birth.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
May 8th, 2011
4:34 pm
I guess the Urinal will be reporting on bin Laden’s death until November 2012 or so it seems.
Only good news ya got, eh?
carlosgvv
May 8th, 2011
5:20 pm
Barry
I would be nice if “one day soon” Black Atlanta might actually give fair consideration to a white candidate. Unfortunately, we both know that day, if it ever comes, will be very far into the future. For all their history of demanding civil rights and integration, Blacks in this country are the strongest example of “birds of a feather flock together”.
Linda
May 8th, 2011
5:40 pm
carlosgvv, When white “birds of a feather flock together,” we’re called racist. Shucks, we’re called racists for just flocking.
carlosgvv
May 8th, 2011
5:51 pm
Linda
Most times, no matter what we do, we’re called racists. Professional victims know no boundries and have no shame.
Sister Sarah
May 8th, 2011
6:03 pm
@Linda and Working Dawg.
I see you are both operating from the ol playbook. Let’s tackle the very logic behind your claim. To say that there is institutional racism that favors minorities (let’s just go ahead and say, Blacks) is merely pushing the concept of AA to the extreme. I want to know where all the employment or corporate contracts are that you claim are being doled out to Blacks are? You are basically saying that requiring by law a seat at the table for all competitive contract bids regardless of race is wrong? We all know how it worked out previously before the laws were changed. But no, that’s what you are really saying, you’re just spinning it the way you have been trained to do so. You peddle the idea that government jobs are merely handouts to Blacks. Well, the Blacks I know working in professional capacities whether in public OR PRIVATE sector have MINIMUM Bachelor’s and/or Master’s degrees or other certifications, no different than the good ol White folk. Furthermore, a LARGE portion of “government employees” are military veterans (of all races) as there is HIGH preference given to them. I’m guessing you “love” the military, given socio-political angle right? Well, do you have a problem with that?? Just wondering…Back to the education thing…so about those B.S., M.S. degrees and such…oh… the college was forced to admit them because they were Black…or the professors were “forced” to pass them because they were Black…or let’s just discount their education altogether because they went to an HBCU. Don’t want to recognize that though, as that’s a racist college system (even though they are only “historically” Black because the good ol White folk didn’t want to allow them into the good ol White universities to get an education). Never mind the fact that good ol White folk have long had “affirmative action” in place and exercise it everyday through posterity, nepotism and “good ol boy” networks.
Just discount em’, if they are in “corporate america” or public sector. That’s the way to go; it’s so much easier that way. Keeps you from having to deal with the reality of things. Sweep the White underachievers under the rug and amplify the Black, as many Black children and other minorities stand side by side academically with their White counterparts at overwhelmingly “White” institutions and manage projects in the private sector because of their ABILITIES and not simply because of their skin color.. Of course you won’t hear about them; it’s all a part of maintaining “supremacy”. PUHleez!
WorkinDawg
May 8th, 2011
6:17 pm
What can I say? All want is for everyone to be treated the same….is that racist? No doubt there are outstanding blacks business people who would succeed in any environment. I work with many and am fortunate to call many of them friends. When the deck is stacked to favor certain groups over others it is my belief that doing so is wrong. Regarding “who are these people” or such nonsense, major universities employ people to recruit minorities. Some folks get put on a waiting list or denied admission while others of equal standing are getting scholarships. Not exactly ignoring race which used to be the goal of the equality movement.
Angela
May 8th, 2011
6:20 pm
http://www.examiner.com/elementary-years-parenting-in-atlanta/motivation-who-s-job-is-it
Linda
May 8th, 2011
6:37 pm
I Report @ 4:34, Bush was criticized for “going it alone,” enhanced interrogation techniques, Gitmo, warrantless eavesdropping, military tribunals, rendition, black sites, indefinite detention, etc.
The corrupt media reported that one of Obama’s first executive orders ended EITs, ordered the closing of Gitmo & black sites & ended rendition. They did not fully report his 8/24/09 decision to continue rendition. I think that sending “detainees” to other countries to be interrogated might be more than “enhanced.”
Obama reinstated military tribunals in 5/09 & Gitmo is still open & fully operational.
I don’t think his adm. checked with the UN or NATO this time.
They moved a team into a rented house in Pakistan with cameras with telephoto lenses & infrared imaging equipment & used sensitive eavesdropping equipment. They used satellite radar.
There was never a warrant issued. bin Laden was not arrested, tried & found guilty in absentia.
They flew into a sovereign country without permission from Pakistan, broke into his home, executed him, stole his stuff & disposed of his body by “waterboarding” it.
I support the events & am proud of our military. I just find it hypocritical of the left to criticize Bush & applaud Obama, especially condemning waterboarding but approving execution.
Linda
May 8th, 2011
6:54 pm
Sister Sarah@6:03, You are mixed up. The only comment I made was about white birds flocking. If you’ve got birds flocking at your place, it’s not my fault. I don’t care what color they are. I did not send them. Call the Humane Society or the zoo. Whatever you do, don’t feed them.
carlosgvv started it! I think they might be his flocking birds.
Weren’t they mentioned in the Twelve Days of Christmas? How many are there? Are they a-laying or a-leaping?
Hope you get (it) straightened out.
Michael H. Smith
May 8th, 2011
11:05 pm
Thank you, Angela.
The solution and answer to the question [ education ] is a 100% team effort and not all on teacher ‘s effort. Each party must give 100% percent. And, in pert near all cases if the parents and students are giving 100% the teacher will give 200% because he/she feels that they are truly making a difference and appreciated.
Education in Georgia, in fact, education in this nation as a whole is not underfunded. Education is however, severely under-invested.
“Investment of person” is the “intractable link”, which invariably determines the performance and eventual outcomes in all educational results – Not more taxpayer money being spent.
Linda
May 8th, 2011
11:26 pm
Michael@11:05, Thank God you are here!
MiltonMan
May 9th, 2011
8:26 am
Kyle, please in the future make a distinct reference to North Fulton vs. South Fulton. North Fulton continues to grow, our schools are some of the best in the state, crime is low, etc., etc. South Fulton is nothing more than a cesspool.
Self_Made
May 9th, 2011
1:39 pm
Every time I tried to teach my kids to “ignore race”, they got cracked upside the head with it. They got cracked in the head by Whites, then they got cracked in the head by Blacks. Then I was left no choice but to pass on a few stereotypes as a means of survival.
And that’s all I’ve got to say about that.
Truth Squad
May 9th, 2011
3:07 pm
Georgia’s “power base”, such as it is, is shrinking. Despite geography, the Republicans are dependent on a segment of the population that is not expanding. It matters not whether that population is concentrated in the Atlanta area, or in the sticks.
The Republican Party’s days are number in Georgia. Their only hope (and apparently plan of action), is to run as many people out of the state as possible, and to lock up as much as the rest as they can to take away their vote. It will not work.
Power will rightly shift to the metro area, we all know this to be true. I hope at that time, the metro politicians show more respect for the rest of the state than is currently shown toward Atlanta.
Tamika
May 9th, 2011
4:58 pm
South Fulton is not a cesspool unless Union City, Palmetto, and Fairburn are a cesspool.
And Lil Barry is a joke. Whenever he talks about Democrats, he talks about Obama. What about the Democrats in the state of Georgia since this article is about the state of Georgia and not the national level?
But addressing that would mean that he would have to stop frothing at the mouth long enough to focus.
And Sistah Sarah, thank you for pointing that out.
satch
May 12th, 2011
1:03 am
Self_Made
May 9th, 2011
1:39 pm
Every time I tried to teach my kids to “ignore race”, they got cracked upside the head with it. They got cracked in the head by Whites…… lol i was taught do not trust whites and everybody black is not your friend. good rules for a black person to live by .it will save you a lot of heart ache.good white folks i’m sorry