Obama to repeat Reagan’s rebound? Not so fast
It has been easy, to the point of being facile, for Democrats to draw parallels between the first terms of Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. Both inherited economic troubles and didn’t dispose of them immediately; both took their lumps in the midterms; both had sagging approval ratings the year before standing for re-election.
Reagan won re-election in a 1984 landslide. Ergo, Obama will do the same in 2012.
Obama has the advantage of facing a field of GOP contenders that has yet to impress, although it’s still rounding into shape. But the single biggest factor will be the economy — and on that score, Investors Business Daily has an extremely telling chart:
Credit: Investors Business Daily
So, only once in this recovery has quarterly growth topped the worst quarter of the Reagan recovery. And the effects of compounding — with those big gains coming on top of big gains, while our small improvements build on smaller improvements — can’t be ignored. Likewise the very sharp downward turn in unemployment three decades ago — from a higher initial level, as Obama’s defenders often forget.
The chart goes with an editorial explaining the differences between the two recoveries, which I recommend. Those differences and others might be debated, but the political effect of a languid recovery versus a spirited one really can’t be challenged.
Is there still time for a sharper uptick between now and the 2012 elections? Of course. But, to help Obama’s chances, it will have to be very sharp and come very soon if it’s going to make up for the sluggishness we’ve seen.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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69 comments Add your comment
poison pen
April 29th, 2011
5:16 pm
Bart, whatever your smoking, please pass it along. President Carter was a Moron, and do tell, how will we get off of oil.
Carter had 17% int. on Mortgage loans and almost destroyed our country, people coundn’t even afford to finance pup tents. DUH!
poison pen
April 29th, 2011
5:22 pm
DW
April 29th, 2011
10:35 am
@Carlos
The overall market is up 100% since bottoming and unemployment is falling. What do you measure a recovery by?
DW, people back to work is how you measure the economy. The Market only plays a small role in the economy, I can assure you that the unemployed don’t give a good sh*t about the DOW.
Michael H. Smith
April 29th, 2011
7:08 pm
poison pen
April 29th, 2011
5:22 pm
Check the one year chart on the Dow, pay attention to the sharp incline that begins around November 2010. Now what “major change” took place in November 2010 that could possibly effect business and the market? No further explanation should be needed, you can sum the surging upswing in DOW in one word: Stability
independent thinker
April 30th, 2011
11:24 am
Several factors work in Obama’s favor for reelection
1. He is getting us out of the mess Bush created in Iraq as promised;
2. He did not follow the Neocons and other Republicans and get us in another hot war in Libya;
3. He was forced to keep the Bush tax cuts by the Republicans which everyone knows is not sustainable with huge deficits;
4. His stimulus program though badly flawed by Ms. Pelosi and others did keep the states from going broke;
5. The Republicans keep generating bufoons and dimwits who really are not capapble of leadership ie. Trump, Gingrich, Bachman, Palin, Boehner, etc.
6. We have stability in foreign affairs, financial markets, and terrorism which we did not have under Bush,
7. The economy is improving.
8. If he comes up with a plan to reduce defense spending (100s of overseas bases in countries that do not need our defense) and reduce entitlements along with mandatory taxes for all coporations including GE he will have tackled our number one problem-the deficit. No Republican plan does all of these.
Alecia
May 1st, 2011
10:29 am
The argument is now about dwindling tax revenue. We forget that when someone does not pay their mortgage. We should also have a work in exchange for section 8 housing program(discussion for another day) We need to tax the difference in payments from loan mods.and the months of not paying a mortgage before the mod or foreclosure.
We can even extend this to people that have been evicted for not paying their rent. There are folks earning 10k+ by not paying their mortgage. Some people have even managed to live in a home for free for years. All of this is made possible with money passed to the banks via the taxpayers. This needs to be taxed as income. We can call it the “deadbeat tax”.
Rafe Hollister
May 1st, 2011
10:32 am
Are you better off todaythan you were in Jan 2009? Is the country better off today, than in Jan 2009?
Didn’t think so!
Nerobama loses in Nov 2012.
Reaganite
May 1st, 2011
11:07 am
Too many left-wing jerkoffs on this blog. Go peddle your Obama crap somewhere else.
TheTruthHurts
May 1st, 2011
11:54 am
NO NEVER HAPPEN!!!!!!!!!.,…I know Ronald Reagan,.and You mister Obama Bin Lying are NO Ronald Reagan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
jane quatam
May 1st, 2011
11:56 am
I thought President Bush was bad, but Obama is merely a black skinny version of Bush. Gitmo didn’t go, but Hope and Change did. Obama has done nothing no change the structural problems afflicting the crumbling U.S. economy, he has instead amplified the economic mistakes of his predecessor. He hires the ultimate multinational corporatists to staff his regime, loads his panels and cabinets with Ivy League silver spoon oligarchs and hires the economists of his predecessors and then has the gall to claim “hope and change” .
He administers the same old newspeak war is peace, trickle down, calamity that brought this nation to its knees. Wide spread wall street fraud caused this economic collapse, but it was corporate trade policy that was only aligned with the interests of large multinational corporation and not aligned with the interests of the American citizens that had hollowed it out to the point it could no longer recover.
McDonald’s recently advertised for 50,000 job openings and received over 1 million people looking for a low wage job at fast food restaurant. Though Reagan may have claimed ketchup was a vegetable, he never claimed that McDonalds was the primary economic job creator of his idealized administration, a claim I fear Obama has already laid claim to.
44 million people on food stamps know there is no economic recovery. The 20% of the work force that can’t find a job know there is no economic recovery, and an unemployed ex president Obama will soon know there is no economic recovery.
Times are so bad, Donald Trump is starting to look like a good presidential candidate.
Jason
May 1st, 2011
11:58 am
Wait…91 percent on income over 200,000 dollar tax. Lets do some math here. You earn 200,000 dollars and your take home pay is what? less than 20,000? Seems to me that would contribute to the recession by bringing a source of sales tax revenue down to almost none, reducing the spending ability of a group that spends lots.
TheTruthHurts
May 1st, 2011
12:00 pm
This president is all about raising gas prices so him and his other liberal friends can make money from oil companies…….This guy is a buffoon and doesn’t have a clue what the hell he is doing…that what happens when you put a community organizer as president with no experience
badpav
May 1st, 2011
1:32 pm
David,
your economic analysis is completely wrong. Companies are sitting flush with cash, scared of tax changes and the attitude from Washington. These anomalies are emotional, not analytical. A problem like that is 100% presidential. Someone who communicates optimism, freedom and and security is needed to pull out of a recession. A “fainess” guy is just fine for when things are already prosperous.
Farsider
May 1st, 2011
2:19 pm
What Wingfield left out of his article was that Reagan signed into law one of the biggest peace time tax INCREASES in history in 1982, prior to this recovery that got him reelected. Conservatives zombies REMEMBER the tax cut of 1982, but always conveniently forget the tax increase of ‘82. Hilarious, consistent, and totally predictable.
Truth Squad
May 1st, 2011
4:24 pm
President Obama will win reelection in 2012. The winner of the election is always the guy the voters like best. This is why you never see the comparison of Like/Dislike numbers between Obama and announced/potential Republican nominees. People like Obama even though they disapprove of the economy.
Republicans at the state and federal level are doing all they can to hold back the recovery and job creation programs. They also are doing nothing to protect those with jobs, as teachers, cops, firefighters, all essential, are losing their jobs in order to pay for more tax cuts for the wealthy and well-connected.
Counting on the economy fail, rather than on their own policies to solve problems will also doom Republicans. You cannot beat something with nothing.
Along with their votes to turn Medicare into welfare-voucher system,if the Republicans hold hostage the debt ceiling, which the public knows they share part of the blame, then it is over for them and the Democrats will retake the Congress with heavy casualty in the statehouses as well. If Obama is seen to have won these battles, then he wins, and wins big.
In fact,people in various states are recoiling, and recalling, Republicans because of policies that are an assault on the Middle Class, the poor, seniors, the disabled, etc…
This isn’t the 80’s, it isn’t the mid 90’s where the dotcom tech bubble held off the crash. It isn’t even the early 2000’s when the housing bubble artificially propped-up the economy, until it didn’t. Nope, tax cuts and budget cuts to social and critical programs aren’t going to spur the economic growth that is going to be needed to repair the labor market. That is going to require spending, a.k.a “investment”.
President Obama’s reelection is not inevitable. There is always a chance that someone, either from his own party or the Republicans, that the public likes and who comes forth with a job creation strategy, that will immediately creates jobs, and is either paid for now, or over time, can beat Obama.
Lastly, not only will Obama win reelection, he will win Georgia. Did y’all see the polls that show his approval rating in this state is higher than the vote total he received in 08? Have y’all noticed the same phenomenon in several other southern/southwestern states as well? While he has some work to do in about 5-6 states he won in 2008, 2012 is lining up to be a massive victory, but for different reasons than what helped Reagan in 84.
teacher
May 1st, 2011
4:38 pm
Seriously, please stop trying to convince people that Obama is going to fix things
Tthat is not part of his plan-it never was. He is the son of a Muslim radical and a white trash woman who left him to be raised by radicals who hate this country and all it has stood for.
Let’s learn our lesson and vote in someone else before we are all broke and on government support.
NObama
May 1st, 2011
5:32 pm
Obama is the worst president ever..he is no and never will be a Reagan. Reagan duidn’t take muiltiple vacations and took his job seriously. the job market sucks and will never get better.
Barry Soetoro
May 1st, 2011
6:33 pm
Mentioning Barry and The Gipper is the same breath is insulting. Barry will NOT be re-elected unless unemployment drops to 6%.
Barry Soetoro is the WORST president EVER! BY far! I don’t care what Cindy Tucker says.
ATLER
May 1st, 2011
6:34 pm
Hate to rain on all of you Conservative parade, but President Obama will be elected to a second term!!!!!!!!!!! Hip Hip Hooray!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ATLER
May 1st, 2011
6:39 pm
Bush II is the worst ever!!!!!!!! He and that devil (DICK) Chaney bankrupted this country and no conservative wants to admit it. Come on people, you gotta call a spade a spade. Obama’s doing a pretty good job while receiving ABSOLUTELY no help from the right!!!!!!!!!!