Will the rise in suburban minorities mean a departure from identity politics?

The sizable migration of racial minorities to Atlanta’s suburbs may not be the expected, severe blow to conservatism and the Republican Party.

During the past decade, more and more black, Hispanic and Asian Americans moved to places like Cobb and Gwinnett counties. Conventional wisdom holds that these typically Democratic-leaning groups pose a threat to the GOP in its traditional strongholds.

While that forecast may come true, it hasn’t yet. And there’s good reason to think it won’t anytime soon. But first, a few data points from the 2010 census released Thursday.

No Georgia county added more residents between 2000 and 2010 than Gwinnett. With 216,871 newcomers, the county vaulted past Cobb and DeKalb into second place in the state, behind only Fulton.

Gwinnett’s minority population, however, grew by more than a quarter million — more than making up for a net outflow among whites. In 2000, Gwinnett was two-thirds white; now, minorities make up a comfortable majority.

The shift was less dramatic in Cobb (69 percent white in 2000 to 56 percent in 2010). But one thing the two big counties had in common was that they both remained firmly Republican last November.

To see how firm the GOP’s grip was relative to the past, compare 2010’s election results to those of 1998. Drawing a comparison with the last census year, 2000, is tricky because there was a presidential election that year but not in 2010 — and turnout in Georgia is very different when the White House is up for grabs.

The 1998 election has other parallels to 2010: In both years, a Republican U.S. senator ran for re-election but there was no incumbent in the gubernatorial race (plus, the Democratic candidate each time was Roy Barnes). And 1998 is farther back than 2000 in terms of the demographic shift — so, if anything, the change ought to be more pronounced.

Yet, little changed in terms of partisan politics.

In 1998, Barnes lost Cobb by 8 percentage points; last year, the margin was almost twice as large at 15 points.

In Gwinnett, Barnes fared somewhat better in 2010, losing by “just” 20 points rather than 25 the first time around. Given the tremendous demographic change over those 12 years, one would have expected Gwinnett to be much more competitive. But Nathan Deal was in no danger of losing the county.

In last year’s U.S. Senate race, Johnny Isakson won by 28 points in Gwinnett. His predecessor, Paul Coverdell, took the county by 34 points in 1998. So, again, there was some falloff but still a healthy margin of victory for the Republican. (In Cobb, Isakson did seven points better than Coverdell did.)

I have a hunch that things aren’t going to change very much in the future, either. Traffic, zoning fights and the other issues that accompany the kind of rapid growth seen in Atlanta’s suburbs are all color-blind.

While many minority voters accustomed to picking Democrats will stick to that habit, at least for a while, people ultimately vote their interests. The Democratic Party traditionally has aligned itself with many of the interests of urban minorities. But when those voters move to the ’burbs, they may well decide that the GOP offers better solutions to the different problems they find there.

If so, whole blocs of voters may be newly open to ideas they didn’t embrace before. Either way, a lessening of the usual identity politics will be good for us all.

– By Kyle Wingfield

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364 comments Add your comment

Devils Advocate

March 19th, 2011
7:05 pm

Sister Sarah

March 19th, 2011
5:56 pm
@TruthBe

“ALL United States presidents over its 234 year history except Barak Obama have been WHITE.”

Sister Sarah, you might want to research that remark. There are at least 4 past US Presidents that have been found to have African Ancestry: Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln and Warren G. Harding.

Prior to the signing of the US Constitution in 1787, John Hanson, a black man, was the President of the Continental Congress elected under the Articles of Confederation. There was no Excutive branch of government and President of Congress was the highest office in the land. I suggest one might want to take a good look at the back a $2 bill, which shows the signing of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress and Brother John Hanson is front and center.

I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

March 19th, 2011
7:08 pm

Well known to the United States policymakers in Obama White House and Clinton State Department along with the National Security Council but not widely known to American mainstream media, the U.S. West Point Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center document reveals that Libya sent more fighters to Iraq’s Islamic militancy on a per-capita basis than any other Muslim country, including Saudi Arabia.

Perhaps more alarmingly for Western policymakers, most of the fighters came from eastern Libya, the center of the current uprising against Muammar el-Qaddafi.

Uh, al Qaeda, in other words.

More than 110 Tomahawk missiles fired from American ships and submarines hit about 20 Libyan air and missile defense targets.

Aahhh, obozo finally comes to the rescue of the……………terrorists.

allah akbar, just sayin…

I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

March 19th, 2011
7:56 pm

Sure, there’s plenty of hardware to do whatever orders come down: the carrier USS Enterprise, destroyers Barry, Mason and Stout, amphibs Kearsarge and Ponce, and the attack sub Providence are all hanging around the ‘hood, waiting for orders to strike. The USS Bataan amphibious ready group will deploy to the region next week, ahead of schedule, to bolster the U.S. presence in the Mediterranean Sea.

All the lib whining and moaning for the last decade about Iraq taking valuable resources from Afghanistan and what do you know, here we are fighting three wars, gosh, amazing, isn’t it?

Lily White

March 19th, 2011
7:59 pm

Democrats have given us another war!

tar and feathers party

March 19th, 2011
8:27 pm

Hmmmm, can we consider Obama’s attack on Libya as just another case of Black on Black violence?

bob

March 19th, 2011
8:53 pm

Vietnam, Korea, Lybya, why do dems love wars and feeding the military indutrial complex ? The market has taken a few hits lately. starting a war with a country that did not attack us has to be for oil.

tar and feathers party

March 19th, 2011
9:12 pm

Nothing pisses the West off more than burning light sweet crude in the desert…..Hint MoooMar….Hint….

sunshine in GA

March 19th, 2011
9:44 pm

Do any of you even know any blacks or latinos? And no, I don’t mean 1 or 2 :-|

I’ve already shared my story on this blog about my family and why we’re slowly but surely shying away from the GOP. We have never been made to feel “welcomed” by this party despite having given them our vote by and large for generations. And as others have said, the race baiting/scapegoating politics being employed by GOPers by and large is getting redundant and offensive, and is unappealing to many.

SN: White women are definitely having babies, maybe not by white men but they’re havin ‘em.

Gerald

March 19th, 2011
9:50 pm

Whites began the identity politics thing with Jim Crow, and then continued it with decades of political, legal and economic tricks to maintain de facto Jim Crow long after de jure Jim Crow was ended by the Supreme Court. And on the local political scene, the biggest – and most destructive – act of identity politics was restricting MARTA to Fulton and DeKalb County, and imposing a bunch of financial and regulatory rules on it to guarantee that it would never be successful (rules that WERE NOT put in place for public transportation systems in the other metro counties). And still more identity politics were played for years over the Atlanta airport (think that they’d still be #1 in the world had they succeeded) before the city finally shut those people up by pointing out that if they wanted it, they’d have to reimburse the city for it (you know, pesky Bill of Rights stuff).

Folks need to quit pretending otherwise. My hope is that all races move away from identity politics. And yes, both parties are hypocrites. Republicans claim that there is a meritocracy … explain so few Asians in positions of leadership when Asians are #1 in every measurable economic and academic category! By the same token, Democrats claim to be for diversity … well how come they don’t recruit more Asian candidates for office and support them? How come Democrats don’t put Asians on the Supreme Court?

Bunch of hypocrites … and no I am not Asian. I am just using them to make my point.

Sister Sarah

March 19th, 2011
10:35 pm

@DA. Nice job trying to scrape the bottom of the barrel and provide some spin in an effort to take te sting out of my challenge. I know it’s tough buddy. I will give you credit though for mentioning John Hansen, though again as I stated, since this country’s founding and under its founding documents. George Washington is THE FIRST RECOGNIZED President of the U.S. Say what you want about “speculation” that any of those Presidents you mentioned might have had some African blood in them, they were White men. Let’s not pretend there are not White Africans. Remember, that’s who imposed the system of Apartheid on Black Africans in South Africa?? So then…about John Hansen…are you suggeting that we av been lied to about American history? No surprise, because we have always been taught a different history regarding innovations by Blacks and the credit taken by Whites. I’m just saying…how honest are we willing to be about these things? I mean I “get it”, and understand you could very well yourself be Black. My point is…no Black man before Obama (who in actuality is only half Black) has ever been elected President. Why no outrage from Whites? Are they wrong or racist for electing only those who look like them? Care to answer? If you do please….directly. I am not into tap dancng. Because that really is the crux of this article.

[...] Will the rise in suburban minorities mean a departure from identity politics? | Kyle Wingfield. [...]

Brandon

March 20th, 2011
1:09 am

Kyle, I am not sure if many agree with your analysis but you brough up a great conversation piece. I have enjoyed the comments on here. I have been living in Gwinnett County the last 10 years and absolutely love it. Some have questioned the future of Gwinnett Co. We it stay beautiful or will it turn into an undesirable place to live. I think it has a bright future if Gwinnett embraces its diversity, and no matter who our politicians are, republicans or democrats we must demand them to be experts on every decision they make, and to vote with integrity.
Seamus, I hear you! One of my great grandfathers was fullblood Irish. Sometimes I joke around and say I am Black Irish, lol. But you are absolutely right we are all Americans and even more important than that we are good neighbors and Children of the same God.

I Report (-: You Whine )-: Thee Magnificent!!! mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

March 20th, 2011
6:53 am

Japan finds radiation in food -Urinal

Aahhh, but no dead people. Even after an 8.9 earthquake, 33 foot tsunami and deluge of lib media propaganda.

Why don’t they all just die, eh? Or grow another arm?

This ain’t gonna be good for the environmental terrorists although maybe the fallout will cook their brains and make them less tedious.

From Where I Sit

March 20th, 2011
7:40 am

MC,

There is no White fright. Most of us are sick and tired of Blacks always wanting to segregate themselves when it is on their terms only! Meaning, NAACP, Miss Black USA, BET, Affirmative Aciton, and the like. Just be a citizen or an American and STOP playing the race card everytime something does not go your way!!!!

Enough Said!

Aquagirl

March 20th, 2011
8:02 am

Discontinuing the Miss Black USA beauty pageant will end racial division in America? And all this time I thought it was a deeply complex issue embedded in American culture. Thanks for the insight.

marko

March 20th, 2011
8:14 am

Kyle seems to think It’s very important that Republicans remain in power. Over the years we’ve become so obsessed over which party controls the steering wheel that we’ve lost sight of the fact that the car’s heading for a cliff. When we hit the rocks will it really matter who was driving?

Jack

March 20th, 2011
9:28 am

Politicians are elected by those who don’t vote.

This is Mrs. Norman Maine

March 20th, 2011
9:38 am

Well aren’t you being the disingenuous one?

As long as the GOP and right wing-nuts continue to make identity(gay, Muslim, African-American, Hispanic immigrants, fill in the blank) an issue to keep their base frightened and angry, then identify politics will remain.

[...] AJC’s Kyle Wingfield took notice of an interesting and unexpected item from the recently released Census data: A sizable [...]

Toby

March 20th, 2011
10:21 am

More important than race-based political study is the results of political ideology: the shift over the past few decades, especially amongst ‘conservatives’, has been to create disaster & then let the free market do it’s ‘magic’ (exploitation of suffering). The ruling class has been shrinking but it’s wealth has been growing, while the middle class shrinks, it’s wealth shrinks, the working class grows, it’s wealth shrinks: it’s capitalism, it’s Darwinian & it is not a good way to promote wellbeing.
-in closing, minorities are prevented from voting by various conservative methods, like how Jeb Bush hired that private company to deny ’suspected felons’ (mostly black people & thus Dems) the vote in Florida, the Arizona bill which makes low-income Latin people too afraid to stand in these long voting lines, & of course, keeping the lines long at polling stations in racial-minority areas… the Southern Strategy Reagan unethically promoted.

Ivana Trump

March 20th, 2011
10:22 am

Donald for President….i don’t think so….he could’nt even get 50% of the votes in a fight with Rosie…and how will he ever explain wearing those lacy things under that power suit…darling give it up!

killerj

March 20th, 2011
10:37 am

Ha Ha,they are following the white man,s money dumb a$$.

Sister Sarah

March 20th, 2011
10:45 am

@From where

Let me be clear. I can name my network whatever the h3ll I want to! Tell that to the CHRISTIAN BROADCAST NETWORK moron! I don’t see Jews, Muslims, or Hindus bytchin about a network so named and whose programming caters to Christians. Miss Black America was created because Whites did not allow us fair representation in its pageants. Can you dispute that?? Same with HBCUs. YOUR Fn people didn’t even want to allow MY people the opportunity to achieve education. So embracing the “American way” we created our own, and you are pissed. You would probably even perpetuate the bogus idea that only Blacks are allowed to attend HISTORICALLY Black Colleges and Universities. All of your hogwash is right out of the White Supremacist “playbook”. You are simply a HATER who doesn’t want anyone non-White to have sh–, even if they earn it themselves. SCREW YOU!!!

WillieRae

March 20th, 2011
10:46 am

It seems that wilfull delusion is a prerequsite for being a liberal these days.

AmVet

March 20th, 2011
11:08 am

That 10:46 is shonuff a rip-roaring knee slapper.

Considering it was proffered by someone so out of touch with reality that they actually believed that Bush/Cheney and their cabal were conservatives!

And then voted for them as(s) such.

Twice!

Please stop it, the laughter is killing me, neo-cons!

MC

March 20th, 2011
11:47 am

From Where I Sit there is so much white fright that the more imbecilic ones want to change the constitution. The greatest fear of white people today is that eventually the power that they have enjoyed at the polls will be all but eroded and they are at least smart enough to see that the demographic trends are not in their favor, especially if you are a white republican. When you can’t control the ballot box you can’t control the country and white republicans know their numbers are dwindling and they are terrified. Otherwise why all the angst over Latinos and their citizen children? DUUHHHH!!!

MC

March 20th, 2011
11:54 am

Also From Where I Sit you should take your own advice. America is a diverse country. It will only get more diverse. “Just be a citizen or an American and STOP playing the race card everytime something does not go your way!!!!” That includes you does it not. When the demographics aren’t going your way stop trying to change the constitution. When you can’t stomach all the diversity around you force yourself to adjust. It’s not up to minorities that will soon be majorities to adjust to your fear of it. You have the problem From Where I Sit. They don’t. Adjust or get out. ENOUGH SAID!

Michael H. Smith

March 20th, 2011
11:59 am

After one look over of all the comments made thus far Kyle, was I wrong in my original statement?

You and I differ in our opinions about the political shifts that will take place in the future. Among the ethnicities you listed, it might be helpful to note that every one of them are in many ways and by their own lesser means, if for no other reason than as necessity has revealed them in history, they are often more ‘conservative’ than the ethnic majority. Where you are right (where I agree) is in the fact that personal interests will be the determining factor of the outcomes. No amount of ethnocentric coddling (playing on identity politics for political profits) will change these results. For no ancestral group in this country ever retains ethnic purity or remains monolithic, either philosophically or politically.

[...] interesting speculation by Kyle Wingfield about the possible decline in “identity politics” because of these [...]

Rob T.

March 20th, 2011
12:11 pm

I’m white and I realize that it is me that has to adjust to diversity. Not the other way around. I am also starting to feel disgust for those that want to turn back the clock or continuously try to adjust society to their particular needs. Those who the changes around them will eventually be buried by that fear.

Michael H. Smith

March 20th, 2011
12:12 pm

It will only get more diverse.

Genetically speaking, yes. In ethnocentric terms, very doubtful.

Mult-racial [Multi-ethnic] Americans numbered 6.8 million in 2000, or 2.4% of the population. Now statistics show that the percentage has increased to 6.7% in 2010. Now over 12.5 million in November 2010

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interracial_marriage

Michael H. Smith

March 20th, 2011
12:22 pm

The New Face of America

The number of young Americans who identify themselves as multiracial is soaring. What effect will they have on the country’s racial identity?

~ By Susan Saulny in College Park, Maryland

Ask Michelle López-Mullins, a junior at the University of Maryland and the president of the school’s Multiracial and Biracial Student Association, how she marks her race on forms like the census, and she says, “It depends on the day, and it depends on the options.”

López-Mullins, 20, is Chinese and Peruvian on one side and white and American Indian on the other. She’s is part of a generation of young adults of mixed racial backgrounds who are rejecting the color lines that have defined Americans for decades in favor of a more fluid sense of identity.

The crop of students moving through college right now includes the largest group of mixed-race people ever to come of age in the United States, and they are only the vanguard: The country is in the midst of a demographic shift driven by both immigration and intermarriage.

http://teacher.scholastic.com/scholasticnews/indepth/upfront/features/index.asp?article=f031411_america

MC

March 20th, 2011
12:27 pm

I guess my Mexican wife and I are enemies of the ethnocentric crowd now for mixing white with Latino and producing our 2 children. You know. Contributing to diversity and God forbid, diluting the anglo gene pool. My Mexican wife has a Masters Degree and is a citizen of this country. She is more educated than most of the buffoons that look at her as if she doesn’t belong here and is just another “illegal”. As long as Latinos continue to be the target of Georgia redneck republican legislators, there will continue to be at least 1 ex republican in our family. John McCain could very well be the last republican to get my vote until all the republican attacks on Latinos has ended. GW had it right on immigration. McCain had it right. Too bad the radical right has hijacked what was once a good party populated by true conservatives in possession of logic, rationale, and pragmatism.

MC

March 20th, 2011
12:40 pm

Michael H. Smith you are absolutely correct and it is this rapidly growing genetic melting pot that has a lot of these white anglo purist with their obsession with their genetic superiority (alleged) that just don’t get it. They have made it their mission to do the impossible with all these irrational political attacks on everything not white. They cannot and will not be able to reverse the inevitable. But if they insist on being taken where we are going kicking and screaming I am willing to drag a few of them there. I can’t count the number of times when I have told someone that my wife was Mexican that their white nose didn’t elevate like there is something wrong with that and by virtue of that they could turn their superior white nose up. Never mind that she has a Masters degree and I am a West Point grad. That nose in the air and the noticeable change in their attitude tells me all I need to know.

TruthBe

March 20th, 2011
12:45 pm

Sister Sarah you are such a bigot and a black racist. Your so-called facts are nothing more than misguilded hatred. Please go and find a good Church and get some help. Rev.Wright’s Church that taught Obama to be a racist also I would stay away from.

TruthBe

March 20th, 2011
12:47 pm

MC, I don’t care what race you and your wife are. Thank you for your service to our Country.

MC

March 20th, 2011
12:51 pm

Thank you Truth Be.

Michael H. Smith

March 20th, 2011
12:58 pm

Welcome to the club, I’ve probably been enemy number one on the ethnocentric crowds list for years. Neo-Con GW had it completely wrong on immigration and so do the ethnocentric Democrats and Republicans. Neither one of them (both radical left) give a crap about legal immigrants and their only genuine concern about ILLEGAL ALIENS are for votes (Democrats) or for cheap labor (Republicans).

Conservatives – not Neo-Cons, who are economic liberal in far too many realities – strongly support legal immigrations that produce loyal naturalized citizens of this country and they will always continue to receive a hardy welcome from this element of conservatism, provided as our fellow countrymen they embrace the fact that we as they must respect our Constitution and laws with the utmost ferocity to remain a Representative Republic.

If they don’t, they should ask themselves why they ever left the corruption of places like Mexico behind only to re-establish it here, where it will one day again choke off the very liberty, freedom and offered opportunity of their desire from their own offspring?

Devils Advocate

March 20th, 2011
1:05 pm

Sister Sarah: Nice rebuttal. I still disagree with some of it: The first founding document was the Articles of Confederation. The Articles of Confederation outlined how the United States was to be governed and was the first written Constitution. The problem with it (among other things) was that it (1) allowed individual states to maintain sovereignty over govt functions and (2) there was little accountability among the states because there was no national oversight.

My point: John Hanson was ELECTED president of the Continental Congress. Therefore he WAS the first ELECTED president of the US. Remember, there was no Excutive Branch of government–only Legislative and Judicial. And for the purpose of answering your questions(s), ALL of the presidents that I mentioned were of mixed race, including Hanson and President Obama–meaning no president was a direct descendant of Africa or resembled an African. Nonetheless, it does not negate the fact that the grandparents of these men were black.

I understand the psychological implications of suppression of history and the gains made from such. Why doesn’t history or public schools teach about black presidents/black history and only recognize Washington as the first US President? Well, they ARE govt schools with cirricula developed, maintained and managed by every level of govt from city to national. Would you be outraged if the deck was 99.9% of the time stacked in your favor??

People–both black and white–vote against their own self interests to advance the causes of their ethnic groups. Non-Whites no longer view the world through eurocentric eyes. There is a positive correlation between a persons education and income level and the way that person votes. What good is it to have the majority of the country’s wealth without ALL of the power?

Michael H. Smith

March 20th, 2011
1:05 pm

TruthBe, first of all Mexican is not a Race. Mexican is a nationality, which is for the most part not ethnically pure. Most are mestizo, like most of us in this country. They are mixed and so are we. What distinctly separates us, is our two vary different systems of governance. We got lucky in that respect.

MC

March 20th, 2011
1:17 pm

Michael H. Smith….I am a race. My wife is an ethnicity. If you hone your reading comprehension skills a bit you will see that TruthBe’s sentence is absolutely correct. He did not say Mexican. He is correct and you stand corrected.

Politico Reader

March 20th, 2011
1:21 pm

I follow local politics quite a bit and Gwinnett is definitely going Democratic in the long term. The reason it’s still Republican is due to the fact that the large minority (and especially Hispanic) population can’t or doesn’t vote and so the actual electorate is something like 75% white, 20% black, 5% other whereas the population is only 48% white, 25% black, 27% other. With Republicans picking up around 70-75% of the white vote, virtually no black votes and around 35% of the other vote, this equates to around 55-60% of the overall vote for now, which is what Republican candidates have been receiving.

However, there are two trends that are not favorable for Republicans. First, as the county becomes more diverse, the white population that moves here or remains is becoming more moderate and slightly more willing to vote for Democratic candidates. Second, as the minority vote increases to around 30-35% of the electorate (which even still would be an under-representation given their 50%+ proportion of the electorate), the Democrats likely will start winning the county. This could happen as soon as in 2012 (conceivable that Obama may win 51% -52% here) but if not, definitely by the end of the end of the decade.

MC

March 20th, 2011
1:22 pm

Michael H. Smith if the sanctity of our constitution was so respected by all there would be none of this absurd BS about changing it every time it becomes inconvenient to someone’s interest. As for corruption….I wouldn’t be so sanctimonious.

MC

March 20th, 2011
1:28 pm

And Politico Reader, the radicalization of the republican right is rapidly becoming more than moderates can stomach. And moderates are the majority in this country. There is a tipping point where party loyalty or affiliation can’t negate the disgust of right wing political agendas that seem to get more hateful, more radical, and more exclusive with each and every election cycle.

Michael H. Smith

March 20th, 2011
1:56 pm

The problem is the Constitution is not being changed by amendments. The BS is in trying to change the Constitution by laws and court decisions where it is convenient, when such attempts would be otherwise unsuccessful through the ratification process.
If you are defending the corruption of illegal immigration you are being very sanctimonious, far more so than me.

MC

March 20th, 2011
2:01 pm

And what court decision pray tell has changed the constitution by law Michael H. Smith. Please tell us.

Michael H. Smith

March 20th, 2011
2:09 pm

Parts of the New Deal came about as a result of FDR packing the Supreme Court with justices that ruled in his favor, which in effect has changed the constitution by law via court decisions whereas before they were unconstitutional.

MC

March 20th, 2011
2:11 pm

We’re waiting for you to cite one of those court decisions that changed the constitution by law Michael H. Smith. Are we wasting our time waiting for you to do that?

MC

March 20th, 2011
2:13 pm

Not sufficient Michael. I guess you are qualified to give a definitive rebuke to those justices, huh? But let’s be more specific. Name a recent one. Now is now. You know. The 21st century. 2011. Come on Mike. You can do it. Name one. Just one.

MC

March 20th, 2011
2:15 pm

Name a recent federal court decision that changed the constitution by law Mikey. Are you in over your head? It doesn’t have to be the supreme court now does it?