Obama’s stimulus produces temp-jobs ‘recovery’
So says economist John Lott, writing at FoxNews.com:
Our current “recovery” might be in its seventeenth month, but the few new private sector jobs have come from companies temporarily hiring staff on a contract basis. What were once jobs reserved for people hired to cover seasonal demand or permanent employees on sick leave have become the standard employment for many workers. Companies simply don’t want the risk of hiring workers that they might soon have to get rid of.
Since the recovery started in June 2009, the total number of private sector jobs has increased by 203,000 [link fixed at 1:11 p.m.]. But these weren’t “regular,” permanent jobs. Indeed, permanent private sector jobs fell by 257,000.
“Temporary help service” jobs is what made up the difference, as they increased by 460,000. For all sectors of the economy, including government jobs, the drop in the number of permanent jobs during the recovery was even worse — a drop of 561,000.
The trend has recently been getting worse. During five of the last six months, the total number of permanent jobs fell. The new unemployment numbers released on Friday weren’t as bad as other recent numbers. There were 39,000 more jobs during November. However, with 39,500 coming from temporary jobs, there would have been essentially no new permanent jobs. (links original)
Hmmm … could Washington’s emphasis on temporary, demand-side “stimulus” spending have anything to do with this temporary “recovery”? As Lott notes, we can also see the temporary jobs “recovery” in government jobs — and that doesn’t even include the public-sector jobs that were “saved” by stimulus infusions in state budgets and which may disappear now that states are having to balance budgets without stimulus cash. See here for a description of what Georgia is facing.
The problem is more acute this time around than after previous recessions:
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics started collecting data on these temporary jobs in 1990, such jobs were much less common than today. Only about half as many people held temporary jobs two decades ago. Since then, the current recovery is record-setting in terms of adding temporary jobs. We can compare the three recessions since 1990. While the current recovery has seen the share of jobs held by temporary workers increase by 26 percent, the recession that ended in March 1991 saw a 10 percent increase in share held by temporary workers and the recession that ended in November 2001 had no increase …
You can see these numbers in graphic form on Lott’s personal blog here.
The culprit is not just the temporary nature of the stimulus. Lott argues, as I’ve argued before, that uncertainty is also at play:
Companies don’t want to make longer-term commitments if they don’t know what the next couple of years will look like. New regulations are being imposed on companies, be it health care, finance, the environment, and the other areas. And the exact form and extent of these regulations still have to be determined by regulators. Many small companies don’t even know what tax rates they will face after the beginning of the year. Neither the president nor the Democratically controlled congress attempted to prevent income tax rates from rising for even the middle class until just a few weeks before they were expected to rise.
Indeed.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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120 comments Add your comment
Left wing management
December 14th, 2010
7:20 pm
CJ: “if the person who inherits $5,000,000 doesn’t pay any taxes on that inheritance income (part of the Obama/McConnell deal), then others necessarily must pay more than they otherwise would. ”
OR, it of course means that government must be shrunk. Don’t forget that.
gog
December 14th, 2010
7:22 pm
existance is temporary
MrLiberty
December 14th, 2010
7:28 pm
There is certainly no problem with socialist clowns like Left wing management continuing to live in this country, but unfortunately they are allowed, even encouraged to vote. There was a time when the constitution was supposed to protect the rest of us from him and his ilk. Folks like him are harmless on their own. They don’t have the numbers or the courage to come to our homes and demand our incomes to support their causes. As with all totalitarian leaning types, they employ the power of the state to steal on their behalf and ease their conscience with “laws” and other government tools they can hide behind.
But at some point, certainly at least in 1913 when the Wilson administration claimed that the 16th amendment has been properly ratified (check out the book “The Law that Never Was”) and from that point forward, the government has basically said that our income is their money and that they will decide how much we get to keep. Before that the relationship was completely different.
If you cannot see that the income tax is slavery to the government, then you need to ponder it a bit harder. The theft of the fruits of one’s labor is slavery, even if you get to go home at night or get to keep some portion of it.
Linda
December 14th, 2010
7:32 pm
The emperor’s new clothes have been removed once & for all. Those of us he considers unfit, stupid or incompetent see him as naked as a jay bird. He is holding himself up proudly as the socialist/progressive we deem is evil in American society.
orson
December 14th, 2010
7:40 pm
capitalism is a house of cards… marx is the truth, the light
Linda
December 14th, 2010
7:40 pm
My comment @ 7:32 was intended to refer to the emperor commenting on this blog, but take it anywhere you want, if it applies. Talk about coming out of the closet!
mrsliberty
December 14th, 2010
7:49 pm
mrliberty,
lay off the egg nog
Intown
December 14th, 2010
10:18 pm
1) You almost lost me after the words: “foxnews.com”
2) Could Republicans complete obstinance (to the point of frequent use of filibuster and extreme litigousness) on the need for regulatory reform on healthcare, finance, and the environment be contributing to the regulatory uncertainty that is allegedly causing the alleged temp job phenonmenon?
Double Standard
December 15th, 2010
8:42 am
I have better things to do than read the worthless ajc Kyle. As for the banks that have failed being new and small, that does not preclude theft by deception being a major factor in the bank’s failure. When Republicans run the regulatory agencies, they ignore theft by deception, rather they call it “un-leasing of animal spirits.” See the Savings and Loan crisis under Ronnie Ray Gun aka RR. Its the same old story, Republicans steal everything that is no nailed down, then blame high taxes for their own theft. Also note the pork barrel spending by both repukes and dummycrats in the current bills in congress. Theft by any other name is still theft.
Left wing management
December 15th, 2010
9:48 am
MrLiberty: “There is certainly no problem with socialist clowns like Left wing management continuing to live in this country”
And of course you’re appointing to yourself the authority to make such a judgment, this very authority being assumed by you on non-democratic grounds.
DebbieDoRight
December 15th, 2010
9:57 am
Linda jobs have been disappearing, you mean you haven’t noticed the jobs being outsourced since 2002? You didn’t notice Saturn going under, The Big Three letting jobs go, IBM sending jobs overseas and cutting jobs here, even WALL STREET has been letting people go. You haven’t noticed this? Hmmmmmm perhaps the old adage of the “blind leading the blind” is correct in this scenario. We had Dubya, (blind), leading people like Linda, (blind), around; all he had to do was put up banners that said “Mission Accomplished” and Linda believed that it was true.
It is what it isn't, that is, it's not what it is.
December 15th, 2010
10:55 am
One stimulus package in the Obama economy is worth two in the Bush.
Bush caused this catastrophe and Clyde Wingnut thinks voters are stupid enough to blame Obama. (He’s probably right).
Americans have a four second attention span, and that’s why clods like Clyde get away with their lies.
Linda
December 15th, 2010
10:57 am
Debbie @ 9:57, Just ignore the facts from the Dept. of Labor. We have always lost jobs & companies, but new jobs & companies appear. It’s net jobs that determine the employment rates. Anyway you figure it, the unemployment rate today under Obama is over twice as high as it was during the Bush adm.
Your insulting me does not give you any credibility.
Linda
December 15th, 2010
11:01 am
It is @ 10:55, If Bush caused this catastrophe, why did Clinton brag about his adm.’s contributions to it (before it crashed) & admit that Bush & the Reps. tried to prevent it & why did the New York Times predict it in 1999?
Eric
December 15th, 2010
11:08 am
I’d have been glad to have a stimulus temp job–but where were these posted (if at all)? Anyone know?
Left wing management
December 15th, 2010
11:26 am
Linda: “Just ignore the facts from the Dept. of Labor.”
Why are we quibbling over which administration is more responsible for more
The implosion of the economy in 2008 – on the Bush administration’s watch – was systemic and unprecedented in the past 75 years. Even the figures from the previous years are heavily skewed because of external events (the 9/11 attacks) and systemic instabilities (a technology bubble). Unemployment numbers more or less reflect these factors, regardless of whether a Republican or Democrat is president. The 10% rate we see now is an index of a market economy in crisis – with years, if not decades, of overproduction and excess capacity and built on the sands of this or that bubble product – be it technology or housing.
Quibbling over whether Bush II or Obama has done more to address employment using yearly unemployment figures alone gets us nowhere.
Linda
December 15th, 2010
12:40 pm
Left @ 11:26, This discussion began with another liberal insinuating that the Bush tax cuts didn’t create jobs. I quoted the Labor Dept. with a comment @ 2:27 that refutes this. After the tax cuts, unemployment went to a 38-year low.
(Yes, the implosion of the economy happened during the Bush adm. which Clinton admitted that Bush & the Reps. tried to prevent. 9/11 also happened during the Bush adm., but that does not mean that he was flying the planes.)
The economic recession is quite complicated & evolved over several years, but it’s extremely important to understand how it began & what contributed to it. The catalyst was the Dems. forcing the GSEs in the ’90s to make subprime loans in the name of Affordable Housing.
Reducing the unemployment rate, the cost of unemployment compensation & other govt. assistance (contributing to the deficit), the number of people without employer-provided health care insurance, etc. & therefore improving the economy is the major concern today. How to accomplish it is a debate, not quibbling. Recognizing that Keynesian economics under progressives have never worked in the history of our country nor any other country & that tax rate reductions along with govt. spending reductions under Reps. have always worked gets us there.
What state does Saxby Chambliss work for?
December 15th, 2010
1:31 pm
Saxby Chambliss has an multiple million earmark in the Federal budget for next year to fund an Alabama company! Who does he work for? Alabama not Georgia?
retiredds
December 15th, 2010
2:23 pm
I am having some amnesia here, could someone tell me how much the brokered tax/stimulus deal that Obama crafted with the “let’s reduce the deficit” Republicans add to the deficit?
Aisha Miller
December 16th, 2010
5:48 am
Hello friends.
I am doing MBA. I need a Temporary Job. I will do any kind of job. At this movement I can’t work for full time due to exams, so I need a temporary job. I have read about temporary job in one site at http://www.temporaryjobs.org/Find-Temporary-Jobs.html What do you think about this page? Thank you for sharing valuable post.