15 for 2012: A first set of ‘power rankings’ for GOP hopefuls
You knew it would be here before long. The momentum that Republicans gained last week means the talk about the 2012 GOP presidential primary is already well under way.
On Tuesday, National Journal’s Hotline released its inaugural “2012 Presidential Power Rankings.” There are 15 candidates in four descending tiers, based on money, campaign infrastructure, strengths and weaknesses:
The A-List Tier
1. Mitt Romney
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. John Thune
4. Haley Barbour
The Fox News Tier
5. Mike Huckabee
6. Sarah Palin
7. Newt Gingrich
8. Mike Pence
The Governor/VP/’16 Tier
9. Mitch Daniels
10. Chris Christie
11. Rick Perry
12. Bobby Jindal
The Tea Party Tier
13. Rick Santorum
14. Jim DeMint
15. R. Paul (left ambiguous on purpose to leave an opening for Ron or his son, Rand)
What do I make of such a list? Beyond the fact that it’s way too long?
I think Romney is definitely in the top tier (for now, let’s ignore Hotline’s names for the tiers), and Pawlenty probably is as well. Where they’ll shake out in the end, I don’t know. I still think Romney’s five-minute explanation for how his health reform in Massachusetts is different from ObamaCare takes about four minutes, 55 seconds too long.
John Thune? I know some people in these parts who really like the guy; they have yet to convince me he’s something more than the right’s version of Barack Obama. I know that’s kind of the standard knock on the guy, but I think it’s pretty much true. The GOP has to nominate someone with significant executive experience to run against Obama.
Barbour: I know he’s one of the strongest in terms of organization and fund-raising prowess, and call me shallow, but I just don’t think it’s in the cards for a white man with a Southern drawl in 2012. At the very most, I’ll believe it when I see it. So, let’s go ahead and take Huckabee (who would delight social conservatives but make fiscal conservatives rather nervous) and Perry (anyone who’s used the S-word — secession — is not going to win the presidency imo) down a couple of pegs as well.
Palin: Obviously, she’s the wild card: Will she win? And what will that mean? For all the attempts to portray her as an intellectual lightweight, this week she had my very serious former colleagues at The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page praising her approach to monetary policy and the need for a sound dollar. In the end, I think she’s too polarizing; the GOP doesn’t need a candidate who fires up the Democratic base the way Nancy Pelosi fired up the Republican base this year.
Gingrich: He’s trying to position himself as a health-reform guru, which will prove either brilliant or a couple of years too late. A lot of people think he carries too much baggage from his time as speaker of the House, and that sounds about right to me.
Pence: He’d be a darling of the tea partiers, and he has had practice taking on Obama. But can he go straight from the House to the White House? I’m skeptical. But hey, I was skeptical that Obama could go from the Illinois legislature to the White House so quickly.
Daniels: He’s made a couple of perceived gaffes, talking about calling a truce on social issues and expressing a willingness to explore a value-added tax, or VAT. The good news for him: He made those statements very early in the process, which means he has time to make people forget them; and even though they are perceived as gaffes, he may be able to explain them in a way that brings people on board rather than turning them away. His track record as Indiana’s governor is impressive. I’ll be watching him.
Christie: He says he’s not running. The subsequent mini-scandal about his overpaying for travel expenses by about $2,000 while serving as a U.S. Attorney suggests not everyone believes him. He would be a stark contrast with Obama on dealings with public-sector unions, and he will probably have a leg up on him and most of this field in terms of dealing with our looming pensions disaster. He certainly needs a couple of more years in his track record to prove he’s the genuine article, and he’d probably benefit greatly from staying out of the national fray until 2016 or later. But as a VP candidate? Or if the front-runners fail to impress? We’ll see.
Jindal: He’d draw a strong contrast with Obama on the handling of the Gulf oil spill. Take everything I said about Christie, beginning with “He certainly needs a couple of more years,” and apply it here.
I don’t see anyone in the last tier as a serious challenger in 2012. The only omitted name I can think of at this time is Marco Rubio, whom I’d put alongside Christie and Jindal. Maybe Rep. Paul Ryan, although I think he’s probably better suited for the House.
There’s my very, very early handicap of the race. Your thoughts?
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96 comments Add your comment
Road Scholar
November 10th, 2010
6:28 am
If Palin runs and wins, will she serve the whole first term or quit and run back to talk tv? She makes more money there, and she has no fallout from what she says/does.
I think Barbour would be a strong candidate.
Diehard
November 10th, 2010
6:37 am
You left out Sonny Perdue. Just like Carter in 1974, he’s got time on his hands and more experience than everyone on your list except Romney . . . and he’s got Nick Ayers.
Tom E. Gunn
November 10th, 2010
6:37 am
The ONLY people I see myself or my neighbors voting for is Barbour or Huckabee. I don’t see a winner on that list. That is the problem. Love’em or hate’em, the Dems have Obama. The Republicans don’t have that “personality” person to step up and run. To be honest, and don’t laugh, I’d vote for JEB Bush ahead of any of these guys. I don’t know the answer, but it is not on that list.
Grumpy
November 10th, 2010
6:38 am
Romney gets fed to the machine in 2012. Obama crusies to victory.
Christie/Jindal 2016.
Grumpy
November 10th, 2010
6:39 am
Barbour would be a strong candidate in the south. He would get crushed in about 40 other states.
DW
November 10th, 2010
6:41 am
I’d rate Barbour over Thune. Thune has a little more Senate experience than Obama, but he hasn’t held a major Senate leadership position. Also, Barbour has been RNC Chair and is a current governor. In fact, I’m almost tempted to put him before Pawlenty, too, but Pawlenty made his intentions to run known months before Barbour.
Vinny D
November 10th, 2010
6:56 am
Don’t sleep on Ron Paul. I don’t think Rand would run yet but when has the time been better for Ron? The guy has been preaching the same thing since the 70s and now America actually wants those things. He would be the anti Obama. However, how would America feel about getting rid of the IRS, ending all war and closing military bases around the world, giving the states more rights and the federal govt less? Don’t sleep on ol Ron.
kt
November 10th, 2010
7:08 am
Ron Paul will be incredibly successful in 2012. Why? Because everything he spoke of in the campaign of 08 has come or is in the process of coming to pass. He was the only one willing to sperak the truth and actually stand by the Constitution. The rest are just shrills. two side of the same coin.
DemoRat’s / republiCon’s – same sh**different pile.
Joel Edge
November 10th, 2010
7:08 am
Who I would like to see: Barbour or Jindal.
Who it will be: Romney or Huckabee
Bring back "Babe Alley" to the Georgia Capitol!
November 10th, 2010
7:10 am
Sarah Palin’s got my vote!
HDB
November 10th, 2010
7:14 am
Marco Rubio can’t be President….he is NOT native born…as is required by the Constitution. Huckabee and Barbour — not gonna happen!! Pawlenty has made too many enemies in Minnesota…and Palin’s a quitter!! The country won’t think about putting ANOTHER Bush in the White House….so the most plausible candidate would be Mitch Daniels!! As long as conservatives LEAVE the social and racial issues at the door and focus solely on fiscal matters…the possibility exists!!
Bring back "Babe Alley" to the Georgia Capitol!
November 10th, 2010
7:25 am
Road Scholar
November 10th, 2010
6:28 am
“If Palin runs and wins, will she serve the whole first term or quit and run back to talk tv? She makes more money there, and she has no fallout from what she says/does”
Palin had no choice but to quit the Governor’s office or end up in a jail cell like her predecessor. If you were in that situation, which would you do, sit around and wait for the wolves to zap all of your personal finances or get the hell out of dodge, be a political superstar as America’s conservative sweetheart, make a mega boatload of cold, hard cash and instantly become the Presidential frontrunner in 2012 as the 800-pound gorilla in a full room of GOP hopefuls? I know, it’s a very tough decision that requires alot of deep thought! Although, Sarah Palin behind bars in womens’ prison makes a superhot jailbreak fantasy as she would be subjected to lots of hot showers, fights in tubs of baby oil, jell-o and mudfights with hot, sweaty female cons like herself.
USMC Dawg
November 10th, 2010
7:27 am
Kyle,
I am really starting to think that Chris Christie might have what it takes to be a great President.
Ofcourse we all know that it gets to be a big “beauty” contest at a certain level.
But look at what he is doing in New Jersey of all places.
I like his “no nonsense” approach to slashing spending and using common sense in governing.
At first thought, he doesn’t have the style points of an Obama, which I think we all saw through before the 2008 election, but maybe a no nonsense, yes, “fat guy” can run on his record of cleaning house in New Jersey.
I do like Sarah Palin, but is she electable?
Romney has always seemed like a safe bet, but how far can he go?
Huckabee would be good. I would have to hear his stand on a few of the issues
Newt would be my “number one”, but is he electable
Ron Paul: I really like Ron Paul. Is he electable?
Robert
November 10th, 2010
7:31 am
15. R. Paul (left ambiguous on purpose to leave an opening for Ron or his son, Rand)
Or RuPaul, in case Senator Craig has a say in it.
lucy
November 10th, 2010
7:36 am
gop power rankings:
1) hate
2) fear
3) ignorance
Ragnar Danneskjöld
November 10th, 2010
7:42 am
Dear HDB @ 7:14, while many nativists agree with you, Miami is still technically part of the United States.
Otherwise, Kyle, your analysis looks pretty good. I keep thinking Barbour is unlikely, but his resume is about as strong as Romney’s, and Barbour has that Palin-esque ability to connect with normal people, still a majority in this country. He may be misunderestimated on your list. I think, coupled with either Jindal, Rubio, Palin, or Bachmann – he will need a protected-class running mate – Barbour would win, simply on the issue of competence.
In the jbmlaw perfect world, however, we would see a Ryan-Rubio ticket.
Will
November 10th, 2010
7:53 am
As a democrat voter, I am hopeful that republicans nominate Sarah Palin but worried that republicans will nominate Mitt Romney and he will pick someone like Rubio as his running mate.
African-Americans will turn out in numbers even exceeding 2008 to better ensure that the first African-American elected President is re-elected.
Significant numbers of independents and moderate republicans will either sit on their hands or vote for the President if the choice is Sarah Palin.
Hispanic voters, especially after the expected hateful tone set by the anti-immigrant wing of the republican party relating to immigration reform materializes, will turn out in significant numbers for the President.
I think that Romney, a pragmatic businessman with little interest in hot-topic social issues, could be a winner but am pretty certain he can never get past the Tea Party/christian wing of the republican party to get the nomination. He could win, just as Senator McCain did, if the republican right wing splits its primary vote betwen Palin, Huckabee, and other like-minded candidates.
Finally, if I were the President, I would write off all the southern states with the exception of Virginia and would not spend a dime on the campaign down here. African-American voters will keep Georgia democrat totals above 40% but the almost complete collaspe of white democrat voters in Georgia makes it impossible for democrats to win in Georgia. Although Georgia’s statewide office holders will not be up for re-election in 2012, if they were, I would not anticipate a single well-funded challenge by democrats.
Finally, with President Obama on the ballot and an African-American as the nominee in Jim Marshall’s congressional district, this might be worth the challenge to Austin Scott. Although Jim was the overwhelming favorite among African-Americans in this district, he could not turn out that vote they way an African-American nominee could. Since this doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out, I am certain the Georgia republican Georgia General Assembly will re-draw this district to better protect Scott. After all, just like the democrats when they ran things, electing and protecting partisans trumps all.
gabulldawg79
November 10th, 2010
8:01 am
The only candidate that would help turn America around is Dr. Ron Paul. He has predicted every financial crisis since 1970s and no one would listen, although I think many knew he was right but had a lot to gain under the current status quo system and didn’t want change. His voting record consistantly honors the Constitution which is his only true job as a memeber of Congress (read their oath when sworn in).
I have one question for you Mr. Wingfield and everyone else. 95% of all these candidates are the same GOP Neocon rehashes we have seen for 20 years and all helped get us in this situation. Do you really believe they are going to get us out of this mess? Hell most of them want another unaffordable war with Iran. Why do people in this country keep voting for more of the the same thing? If you want change then you are going to have to vote for a NON TRADITIONAL candidate to get real change or your going to get more of the same.
Someone in this blog asked is Ron Paul electable? Well besides having the biggest presidential fundraising day in American history in Dec. 16 2007(The anniversary of the Boston Tea Party and birth of the modern Tea Party)and getting more contributions from active duty military personel than all the other 2008 candidates combined I would say he is electable. Anyone can be elected. All you have to do is actually vote for them, its pretty simple actually.
Joanne
November 10th, 2010
8:05 am
To diehard – Sonny Perdue? what are you smoking in that pipe?
TnGelding
November 10th, 2010
8:09 am
Romney has absolutely no chance of gettng the GOP nomination, but would probably win if he did. He’ll have to run as an independent which lessens his chances. Newt missed his chance. Why didn’t he challenge Bush in 2004? Christie might be headed for a scandal regarding lavish spending while AG.
Peadawg
November 10th, 2010
8:15 am
“Marco Rubio can’t be President….he is NOT native born”
I thought he was born in Miami?
Name (required)
November 10th, 2010
8:16 am
GOP will shoot itself in the foot if they nominate Suckabee. Palin would probably be an epic failure, as well.
TnGelding
November 10th, 2010
8:16 am
Rand Paul is impressive but doesn’t understand, like many others, you can’t change things overnight or in one or two years. Just ask Obama. It will take at least a decade to get the spending and revenue balanced. He more or less said he and others would vote against raising the national debt ceiling knowing that it would pass. But you’ve got to give him credit for being willing to cut the Pentagon’s bloated budget.
jconservative
November 10th, 2010
8:18 am
I was a Haley Barbour fan until last week when I caught him in a blatant lie on the economuc history of the last 10 years. Either a lie of he is totally ignorant, which is worse than a lie.
My early vote goes to John Kasich. He is just elected governor of Ohio, a must state for a presidential victory, and he has the credentials for the debate over the attempt to rein in spending. I still find his work as chairman of the House budget committee remarkable.
Vinny D
November 10th, 2010
8:18 am
If we go back to a Romney or someone similar, we are pretty much going back to what got us in this situation. America told us we are ready for a real conservative leader who wants to do the right things to get us on track. The neocons got SMOKED in 2008 and if the GOP elects another one, the same will probably happen. Is Ron electable? In 2008, No because the GOP wasn’t buying his message. Now, the nation is buying his message and he IS electable. The man has little charisma and is not a fantastic speaker but by God, he speaks the truth and doesn’t stray from his beliefs. This is the man who had the balls to say that we are partially responsible for 9/11 at a republican debate. Ya know what, if China had military bases right here in Georgia, we probably wouldn’t be too happy about it either. We need to stop trying to be the world police!
JDW
November 10th, 2010
8:27 am
Marco Antonio Rubio born May 28, 1971 in Miami Florida is the second son and third child of Cuban exiles Mario Rubio (1927–2010)[5] and Oria Garcia (born 1931).
While he might or might not be worthy he is eligible.
jt
November 10th, 2010
8:36 am
Smaller government and more individual liberty.
There is only one of the above mentioned who has the record to prove that these are his principles.
Everyone else is just a big-government statist gas-bag.
It doesn’t really matter to frightened sheep though.
Ron Paul 2012.
Abe
November 10th, 2010
8:37 am
Ever noticed how the Left attacks the person, and not the idea? Odd, isn’t it?
mystified
November 10th, 2010
8:39 am
No way we win with Mit Romney. Even if he wins the election, I think he’d be a repeat of GW. We need to ride the wave of this election and seek new blood. We need a conservative Presidential candidate.
lucy
November 10th, 2010
8:46 am
4) xenophobia
Call it like it is
November 10th, 2010
8:50 am
Rubio will pop up more and more, and the Right should pay him due attention. Young and fresh, he will garner attention from the college age and the latino vote.
Michelle
November 10th, 2010
9:23 am
Why won’t Rubio show his birth certificate? What does he have to hide?
scrappy
November 10th, 2010
9:26 am
Palin? Seriously? The fact that she is even on the list is amazing. At least having her on the GOP ticket will ensure a DEM victory.
Sorry, but once you have a reality TV show on TLC, not to mention being a paid Fox News Drone, you should be required to withdraw from politics.
Hillbilly Deluxe
November 10th, 2010
9:46 am
It’s been about a week since the election. Don’t we ever get to come up for air?
Hillbilly Deluxe
November 10th, 2010
9:48 am
Marco Rubio was born in Miami.
http://www.marcorubio.com/marco-101/
Ron Paul Is The ONE
November 10th, 2010
10:01 am
Oprah said it and now it’s being said. Thanks to the Paul supporters. As jt stated: “Everyone else is just a big-government statist gas-bag.”
Romney is an uptight A-hole who’d deny a dying cancer victim the courtesy of a joint.
Huckabee is a jesus freak maniac who talks to his god thing on his cell phone.
Palin is just now discovering what sound money is and is better at looking good than thinking well.
Most of these names except perhaps Christie are typical political putzes. Time to wake the F__K Up. Dammmmmmmmm!!!!!
And Lisa, you’re a bafoon. Have fun in the food riots of 2012. Hope you starve. Seriously.
killerj
November 10th, 2010
10:02 am
By 2012 your list will change dramatically,but it will be Republican on the winning side, O-ne B-ig A-ss M-istake A-merica has made to many enemies to have a chance again and its only going to get worse as the final year of his regime ends.
The Snark
November 10th, 2010
10:04 am
Barbour is competent, but the Republicans don’t give much weight to competence. They want entertainment value.
Question Authority
November 10th, 2010
10:09 am
Your A-List tier looks more like something I would leave in the toilet. Talk about the wrong stuff. And the Fox News tier isn’t much better. What a bunch of Neocons who wouldn’t know how to cut spending or restore sound money if their lives depended on it (Sarah can parrot Ron Paul’s speaches on the Fed all she wants, I doubt she really understands).
Ron Paul is the only candidate even deserving of a vote. We’ll have to wait and see on his son, but he looks like a winner too.
America Lost
November 10th, 2010
10:09 am
1. Mitt Romney: look at the health care mess he created in his own state, I’ll never vote for him, heck, we might as well keep Obozo Care if people are planning on voting him in as president.
13. Rick Santorum: I don’t believe this guy is a real Tea Party member, I think he’s just trying to hitch a ride on the the Tea Party popularity.
Even though the list is long, I don’t see a lot of people that I would be comfortable giving my vote.
However, I’m certainly not voting for Obozo. Democrat, Republian or Indepent??? the pickings are slim for 2012 at this time. I don’t really care for any of them.
Bwahahaha!
November 10th, 2010
10:34 am
Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson is thinking about running–I think he will if Ron Paul doesn’t. He has some interesting positions, sort of a libertarian Republican.
skydog
November 10th, 2010
10:34 am
Where are the JOBS Boehner?!
It`s been 2 weeks.
USMC Dawg
November 10th, 2010
10:39 am
Not that Palin is necessarily my first choice(I’m leaning towards Ron Paul), but isn’t it ironic that Libs who chime in on this blog and say “Palin, really?” are the same people that trash her because:
a) she hits them btwn the eyes on issues and says what most men can’t say
b) she is super popular
c) looks don’t hurt either
Grimlock
November 10th, 2010
10:52 am
Me, Grimlock, no like Mitt Romney.
Me, Grimlock, think Mitt Romney look like New York City upscale restroom attendant.
Me, Grimlock, like Condi Rice. Condi Rice need to run for President. She make much better and smarter President than Bush or Obama Jive Talker.
President Condi need to abolish the TSA perverts at airports and get rid of naked body scanners to help give American citizens back their freedoms. American tax dollars should not pay for private citizens to get molested by high school dropouts with badges.
Condi Rice is pretty, smart and look very HOT to Grimlock in those black leather, thigh-high boots.
Me, Grimlock, stand at attention to salute you, Madam President Condi.
markie mark
November 10th, 2010
11:03 am
@ HDB…..if I recall correctly, Rubio’s parents are Cuban born, but he was born in Miami….
CJ
November 10th, 2010
11:03 am
Kyle: “Palin: …For all the attempts to portray her as an intellectual lightweight, this week she had my very serious former colleagues at The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page praising her approach to monetary policy and the need for a sound dollar.”
Very serious. Good one.
And her approach to monetary policy? Kyle’s talking about the approach outlined in Palin’s tweets, of course. What is that, 150 characters max? The length of these tweets reflects the depth of Palin’s knowledge and the attention span of her followers.
Anybody who believes that the ethically-challenged, former half-term Governor is anything other than a tool, spewing ghost-written nonsense for the benefit of the corporate media and those who buy her clothes and bottled water with straws that bend, is a sucker. Palin knows less about monetary policy than she knows about foreign policy (Putin flies over my house, or something to that effect).
markie mark
November 10th, 2010
11:04 am
yep….Rubio IS american…
“Rubio is the second son and third child of Cuban exiles Mario Rubio (1927–2010)[5] and Oria Garcia (born 1931), and was born in Miami, Florida.” – wikipedia..
hunter
November 10th, 2010
11:05 am
rubio ain’t one of us, deport his illegal arse…..
F. Sinkwich
November 10th, 2010
11:12 am
Any potential candidate without experience as a Governor should be eliminated from the discussion.
Also, any potential candidate receiving favorable reviews / articles from the MSM, especially those which describe the candidate as a “moderate” able to “work across the aisle” should be dismissed as unelectable. Remember McCain.
As a corollary, candidates who receive the most vituperative, personal, and numerous attacks by the MSM should be considered very seriously. The MSM and DC insiders always besmirch those of whom they are most afraid.
Jefferson
November 10th, 2010
11:12 am
Does anyone REALLY belive these folks are serious about the deficit? How about a tax cut?
paleo-neo-Carlinist
November 10th, 2010
11:13 am
Romney is a re-tread, and he cannot overcome the MA healthcare issue and his Mormon faith. Palin and Gingerich are staking horses or rabbits, who set a demanding pace in order to weed out weak (centrists) competitors. both are more powerful/useful as cheerleaders and fundraisers, and each will get their “15 minutes” at the podium, but neither has ANY CHANCE of winning. ditto Huckabee. his connection to Fox News nulifies him as anything more than a cheerleader or pundit. Christie is interesting, but as stated, I don’t think he has “national office” gravitas (not yet, anyway), and there are some skeletons being looked at in his closet. Ron Paul would be nice, but I think he is too much of an anti-cheerleader (as far as neo-con/GOP goes) and Rand’s reverse epiphany re: earmarks won’t help. don’t know enough about the others, but if the GOP doesn’t watch out, it could be ‘96 all over, which may or may not be a bad thing.
markie mark
November 10th, 2010
11:13 am
uh, skydog…..we havent taken our seats yet….you are a little early. Oh, and by the way, happy birthday on the 20th….
markie mark
November 10th, 2010
11:16 am
dang Grimlock….I didnt even think about Condi….she would make one hell of a candidate. And not only would she be able to see Russia from Alaska, she is a subject matter expert on ‘em….
CJ
November 10th, 2010
11:16 am
By the way, when states’ rights (i.e., we don’t need any help from the federal government) proponent Bobby Jindal was screaming for help from the federal government, he only deployed about one out of every six national guard troops allocated by the Department of Defense. Obama: “I urge the governors in the affected states to activate these troops as soon as possible,..”
Anybody who thinks that Jindal’s handling of the Gulf oil spill would help his chances in a presidential campaign should think again.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/06/24/eveningnews/main6615414.shtml
carlosgvv
November 10th, 2010
11:20 am
It goes without saying America could come up with a vastly better list than that. It is also obvious politics has gotten so expense and dirty that only the most common candidates will run for office.
mike
November 10th, 2010
11:20 am
Who cares. I say let any of these repub morons win the national office. When they continue the 8 years before Obama was in office then you idots will realize what you have done. I really like they will be repealing the health care since those in office will have some of the best health care available and the rest of the citizens will not. But I guess it is always good to vote against your best interests.
j
November 10th, 2010
11:26 am
wow kyle compiled a list of 15 prostitutes. yipee.
Ayn Rant
November 10th, 2010
11:56 am
God save America if any on your lists gets elected to public office! Can’t the Republican Party find anything better than that bunch of retreads, has-beens, and dummies?
Whacks Eloquent
November 10th, 2010
12:09 pm
Gary Johnson would be an interesting candidate, but I am still hoping for Herman Cain!
ByteMe
November 10th, 2010
12:15 pm
CJ: the WSJ editorial page editors were talking not about tweets, but about an editorial that was ghostwritten under her name that alluded to the Fed’s actions of monetizing the debt to improve the money supply as possibly causing hyperinflation. It was factually incorrect and certainly not anything where she’s a subject-matter expert or even interested for that matter. But the Fox-owned WSJ editorial editors love what an article from her does for their circulation, so there you go.
Waldo
November 10th, 2010
12:18 pm
Interesting list. A few thoughts, Palin certainly brings the star power, but she’s too much of a polarizing figure to win. Gingrich is right on all the issues, but also unelectable. I actually believe Christie when he says he’s not interested in running, he also does not seem the type who would want to languish in (basically) a ceremonial role as someone’s VP. Jindel would probably make the best president, but he’s probably not a flashy enough candidate to win.
In the end, it has to be someone who will appeal to conservatives & independents AND can drag some electorial votes to the GOP side of the ledger. My guess is a Romney/Huckabee ticket. Huck will help draw the evangelicals who might be uncomfortable voting for a Mormon…
retiredds
November 10th, 2010
12:27 pm
It wasn’t too long ago that the country was saying that the Republican party was dead. It only took two years to prove the pundits wrong. I, for one, am happy to see that so many, in the media and elsewhere, are already proclaiming the Democrats as dead. As is the case over the last couple of years, the pendulum can swing rather rapidly as voters have short memories and need instant gratification. Long term planning in the US of A is what appears to be defunct these days. Sort of like I want to have my cake and eat it too.
Jefferson
November 10th, 2010
12:40 pm
You betcha.
Ragnar Danneskjöld
November 10th, 2010
12:41 pm
Dear CJ @ Byte, so you will know what you are talking about for a change, the WSJ analysis of Ms. Palin’s critique of the loopy Bernanke money bomb is at online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703514904575602231815453378.html?mod=ITP_opinion_2 , assuming you really want to know what you are talking about.
Also, dear CJ @ 11:16, I cannot imagine that you perceive Chauncey’s non-response to the BP leak showed as much intelligence than Gov Jindal’s. Certainly all of the unemployed oil workers in Louisiana would dispute your perspective,
ByteMe
November 10th, 2010
12:43 pm
To win a nationwide election, you have to appeal to your base and then entice enough of the middle to tag along.
Palin doesn’t have that and really has no real interest in being more than a cheerleader for the crazy right.
Barbour is a nice guy and a good governor and could do that, but he doesn’t have national recognition, so he has a lot of ground work to do to be considered a top-tier candidate.
Romney has what it takes in spades… except the base doesn’t trust him, so he doesn’t get out of the primaries again.
Pawlenty is not having a fun time of it right now in Minnesota and he’s also got some positions that won’t endear him to the base, so he’s likely not going to get out of the primaries either.
Newt will do what he’s always done, which is flit around on the outskirts claiming he’s going to make a decision eventually… and it’s only a ploy to sell more books.
Huck is truly one of the decent politicians out there, but evangelism for Christianity is not going to capture the middle. Even if he wins the primaries, he gets smoked in the general.
The Tea Partiers are going to find out it was only the 30% that are Republicans who are angry that they lost in 2006 and 2008. They might win the primaries, but also get smoked then served cold in the general.
Rick Perry keeps talking about trying to get Texas to secede. Not exactly Presidential material and the middle won’t have that.
Bobby Jindal has an image problem, and if he can get past that, he has a chance against Obama.
Pence is a fool with lots of talk and no real answers. He doesn’t get out of the primaries once the old folks realize that what he’s proposing will endanger their entitlements.
Daniels is smart, has a grasp of what it will take to fix the debt, but he violates GOP orthodoxy by bringing up additional taxes. If he makes it out of the primaries, he’ll lose in the general because he’s not exactly Mr. Dynamic, which works in Indiana, but not in the places with lots of electoral votes.
Christie has skeletons. They’ll come out before he gets far. He doesn’t get out of the primaries, regadless of how smart he is.
It’s going to be hard to get the GOP base during the primaries and the middle during the general if the loud part of the base doesn’t accept the idea of compromise.
ByteMe
November 10th, 2010
12:48 pm
Raggy: I do know what I’m talking about when it comes to economics. The Fed QE2 isn’t going to help much, but it certainly isn’t going to trigger Weimar-like hyperinflation in an environment where inflation is currently running less than 2% and assets and wages aren’t appreciating at all. The money is going to go to the banks who are then going to do what they’ve been doing for the past year or so: park it back at the Fed for safe-keeping and to help offset the bad debt still on their books. It’s not going to get lent in quantities large enough to trigger any change. Velocity continues to fall, and what the Fed’s doing is not going to work, but not for the reasons Palin’s ghostwriters came up with.
Only an idiot would look to a has-been-politician/newshound to explain Fed policy.
Ryan
November 10th, 2010
1:15 pm
I think it’s very telling that there is a FOX tier… I guess they are not even pretending anymore. They AE the PR wing of the GOP. So much for journalistic integrity in the US.
jconservative
November 10th, 2010
1:21 pm
“Marco Antonio Rubio born May 28, 1971 in Miami Florida”
Sure he was!
Anybody out there seen his birth certificate? And I do not mean that “long form” that anyone with an IQ of 80 can counterfeit. I mean the form generated by the governing Birth Certificate authority in the state of Florida.
Just asking.
Rockerbabe
November 10th, 2010
1:36 pm
The biggest bunch of women hating folks I’ve ever seen. And, not all that great on civil rights for other minorities either. Then there is the fiscal issues of which most haven’t a clue. Just a few of the war-mongering repugs who didn’t go to either of the two current wars and didn’t send their kids. Who needs such cowards in public office.
Another Handicap Perspective
November 10th, 2010
1:44 pm
First, lets just dimiss the whole ludicrous idea of Sonny Perdue running for President. This is the guy whose solution to the draught a few years back was to hold a prayer session on steps of State Cap. While I am a staunch Christian, I do think God expects his earthly “leaders” so show a little more “leaderships” and not always just dump on him. The rest of the country thought he was nuts. As for Palin, totally agree, she is too polarizing and I am Republican. John Thune, nice smart guy. He is definitely the R’s white male version of Obama. Romney, strong, yes. Can overcome Mass healthcase issue as polls show people not as opposed as a year ago. Barbour, nope. I am also native Georgian (i.e. very southern) and I dont’ see a “pleasantly plump” white haired southern guy winning the Presidency in 2012. His day has come and gone like Newt’s on that one. Then….lets come to Newt. Sorry, “right” conversative Christians have a problem with a guy with how many wives?? My father is prime example. He thinks he is smart but utlimately always asks “how many times has he been married?” He is just keeping his profile out there to keep those speaking engagements going and fees up. Good for him. On Pawlenty…..good candidate from a Gov’s seat. Has done a good job in MN. My two thoughts on Wingfields thoughts, and yes, I have personally met many of the of candidates listed above.
Linda
November 10th, 2010
2:22 pm
I hope the Reps. won’t make the same mistake the Dems. did. None of the people on the list have been vetted enough to earn my vote. Who were their parents, mentors, friends & ministers? Have they ever run a state or a business? Do they know the difference between our allies & our enemies & between voters & our enemies? How do they feel about the country, the Constitution, capitalism, taxes, free trade, securing our borders, our energy policy, czars, executive orders, union bosses, network neutrality, etc.? Do they know the agenda of the progressives? Who is entitled & why? How to they plan to cut the size of the fed. govt. & deficit & pay off the debt?
Jefferson
November 10th, 2010
4:26 pm
Linda, you are looking for Jesus.
fred
November 10th, 2010
4:38 pm
tancredo wears man-pants
Intown
November 10th, 2010
4:41 pm
They’re all douchebags. But your analysis of them seems pretty sound for an early early early read.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 10th, 2010
4:56 pm
Palin.
Romney isn’t even on my list, he could be a dummycrat by 2012 anyway.
Hickabee didn’t make it either.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
November 10th, 2010
4:59 pm
WASHINGTON — The leaders of President Barack Obama’s bipartisan deficit commission launched a daring assault on mushrooming federal deficits on Wednesday, proposing reducing annual cost-of-living increases for Social Security, gradually raising the retirement age to 69 and taking aim at popular tax breaks such as the mortgage interest deduction.
Notice how when the bureaucrats look to making spending cuts they always stick it to YOU and not to themselves?
Cutting obozo’s kommision would be a great start to reducing the deficit.
Logical Dude
November 10th, 2010
5:05 pm
Rubio was born to immigrant parents?
So he’s an “anchor baby” that many so-called Republicans want to deny citizenship to?
You see how this makes the “send the anchor babies back home!” argument a lot weaker, right?
Welcome immigrants!
Linda
November 10th, 2010
5:09 pm
Jefferson @ 4:26, I’ve already found Jesus.
I’m just asking questions of Rep. candidates that voters should have asked of Obama. I’m holding Rep. candidates up to a higher standard.
Jefferson
November 10th, 2010
5:15 pm
Linda, I figured you would take it the wrong way.
Those type of people don’t run for office.
Linda
November 10th, 2010
5:29 pm
Logical Dude @ 5:05, Unless you are an American Indian, you were also born to parents from immigrants. Do you know the difference between illegal & legal immigration? Do you think it’s fair to legal immigrants, who waited 5 yrs. to enter the US, for the Dems. to grant citizenship to illegal immigrants who did not wait their turn?
Logical Dude
November 10th, 2010
5:29 pm
Report says “Notice how when the bureaucrats look to making spending cuts they always stick it to YOU and not to themselves?”
Okay, where would you start cutting spending and not affect YOU?
There is WAY too much to be cut for it to keep everybody happy. Otherwise, don’t you think the Republicans could have done it while they were in power in most of the 2000’s? Why haven’t the democrats done it for the past 2 years?
Yes, because SOME PEOPLE WILL BE UNHAPPY.
Logical Dude
November 10th, 2010
5:34 pm
Linda,
I’m American.
I was born to Americans who had parents born in the United States.
Those are all good questions about immigration, and the answer is not going to be “fair”.
Either many will need to become citizens (even if they do not currently have “papers”) so that we can legally collect taxes on them; or else we need to start sending millions of people back to their own country. Well, we could do what we’ve been doing, and look the other way, but that doesn’t progress the situation.
I think Reagan’s solution of legalizing many who have been here is a good idea, and have a long “path” for those who are more recent. And send all the rest back, since they’ll be the ones who work under the table, causing someone to lose a good paying job.
Linda
November 10th, 2010
5:35 pm
Jefferson @ 5:15, What type of people? I’m just asking questions. My husband of almost 35 yrs. was not perfect, but he is getting really close, & I knew exactly who he was, where he was coming from & what to expect. I was one lucky duck.
Linda
November 10th, 2010
5:48 pm
Logical @ 5:34, I stand by my earlier statement. You “were born to parents from immigrants.” The third option is for illegal immigrants to go home on their own. There are some states that have few illegal immigrants & we need to adopt their policies. Reagan made a mistake granting amnesty. It became an enticement.
I’m not as concerned with the problem of illegal immigrants as I am with securing our borders. Our national security is in grave danger & another 9/11 is eminent.
barking frog
November 10th, 2010
8:04 pm
Waldo 12:18 You called it Romney/Huckabee. Obama has
neutralized Romney by stealing his health plan but he will
get the nomination and he will pick Huckabee for the reason
Waldo gave.
Randy W
November 10th, 2010
9:14 pm
The litmus test would be if candidates submitted a resume without their names. Evaluate them that way without bias. Hold the profile up to the light and see who’s the most qualified. That way it’s less subjective and more objective. The Pres. needs to be the best of the best, especially if we want to hold on to the White House and congress. Electable isn’t good enough, we’ve had 2 years of that! The American people feel like they want substance, world experience, gravitas, real vision, true leadership experience, know how experience not guess how promises like Obama or others that have been professional politicians; someone the world will respect, someone with schooled experience that really benefits the man on the street, someone who understands the gravity of the office, someone that will bring real dignity back to the office of the most important political leader in the world. Having not voted for him last time because I didn’t know him well, I went back and did a little homework on this guy and the others.
I was absolutely astounded by what I didn’t know. If I was hiring and this person submitted their resume I wouldn’t accept any more because I would think it would get any better. I realized that all the usual suspects were just that, usual suspects and the barbs thrown at this person were without substance and not applicable to the qualifications for the office of President of the United States of America. (Everyone has an opinion, with or without merit!) My opinion is that at this point it has to be obvious to the informed and unbiased that Mitt Romney is at the top of the list for overwhelming reasons. It seemed I could not find anything that impugned his qualifications, but rather more and more strengths to qualify him. This time around we’d better get the right man for the right reasons.
Da
November 10th, 2010
9:48 pm
MARCO RUBIO 2012!
No More Progressives!
November 11th, 2010
7:43 am
HDB
November 10th, 2010
7:14 am
Marco Rubio can’t be President….he is NOT native born…as is required by the Constitution.
An interesting remark this early in the process. I wonder why being native born could be an issue?
No More Progressives!
November 11th, 2010
7:50 am
lucy
November 10th, 2010
7:36 am
gop power rankings:
1) hate
2) fear
3) ignorance
Boy, Lucy. You really put a lot of thought into that remark.
Another undergraduate refugee from the Howard Dean School of Diplomacy.
Hatchers
November 11th, 2010
8:03 am
None of the people on the Kyle’s list of poll polarizers can be president. None of these reptiles were hatched on the contiguous continent. I’m starting the “Hatcher” movement to prevent these amped-fibians from ever running for prez.
Agnostic Hatchers 2012: You say Allah, and we say Blah Blah. You say Birther, and we say Hatcher. Allah. Blah Blah. Birther. Hatcher. Lets call the whole thing off.
Vote for Obama. History will never forgive us if we don’t; and he’s still so cute. He’s the only president besides Kennedy who got more attractive in office.
No More Progressives!
November 11th, 2010
8:12 am
HDB, where do you get your information? There are about 7 websites I just went to, and they all say Rubio was born in Miami in 1971 to immigrant parents.
You say you haven’t seen Rubio’s birth certificate. Have you seen Barry Sotoero’s??
Jefferson
November 11th, 2010
10:11 am
Linda, well sent hubby on the politcal trail, if he’s good he will run from the filthy machine it has become.
the mehlman rings twice
November 11th, 2010
10:44 pm
Hey Kyle,
Will you stop with that Newt stuff. The women of this country are not going to accept a First Lady who slept with someone else’s husband. Some taboo’s just can’t be overcome.
the mehlman rings twice
November 11th, 2010
10:59 pm
Kyle,
I say you add Joe “You Lie” Wilson from the “rape” state of South Carolina to the list. I’m sure he’ll capture the rapist vote since he believes, like he did with his ex-box Sen. Thurmond, that rapists should not have their “legacy” tarnished.
Intown
November 12th, 2010
3:18 pm
Obama 2012! the alternatives are just too scary to think about.
Dirk
November 14th, 2010
11:32 am
If unemployment doesn’t drop at least four to five points by 2012 it doesn’t matter who opposes Obama. He will lose.
Conversely….if the economy is going good and the unemployment situation has been significantly improved, Obama and the GOP both stand a very good chance of re-election.
Quite simple to understand.
Now back to more idiotic comments from more idiots.