Jobs forecast not the only ‘dumb’ thing about stimulus (video)
Agreeing with Barney Frank twice in two months? Don’t worry, the Massachusetts Democrat wasn’t right about everything in his interview with Fox Business Network yesterday. But he did finally acknowledge what has been obvious to everyone outside the Democratic Party for some time now (starting at the 3:37 mark):
Here’s a transcript of the relevant part of the exchange:
President Obama, whom I greatly admire … here’s the mistake he made. When the economic recovery bill — we’re supposed to call it the recovery bill, not the stimulus bill; that’s what the focus-group people tell us — with the economic recovery bill, he predicted, or his aides predicted at the time, that if it passed, unemployment would get below 8 percent. That was a dumb thing to do. In the first place, nobody knows. In the second place, what they should have said is, if we pass it, it’ll be better than if we don’t pass it. (emphasis added)
But what about the supposed reliability of the Keynesian models Obama’s economic advisers used then — and still use now to assure us that the money that was spent really did work?
We all know why the Obama team put out that “dumb” counterfactual about what unemployment would do absent the stimulus — because otherwise, too few people were willing to believe that borrowing and spending $787 billion (now bumped up to $862 billion) was such a great idea. Now that the prediction has proven not just politically dumb but substantially wrong, why should we believe the new counterfactuals, based on the same models, being put out to convince us that the stimulus really did work — and that what we really need is more borrow-and-spend stimulus?
Isn’t that a little dumb, too?
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176 comments Add your comment
Question Authority
August 18th, 2010
12:20 pm
Keynesian economics is a fraud and a farce. If the first Depression should have taught anyone anything it was that Keynesian economics doesn’t work.
Austrian economics on the other hand completely explained the first Depression, predicted every growing and bursting bubble since, and correctly explains what is happening in this Depression. Yes, Keynesians say that somehow you can have your cake AND eat it too. Austrians fully realize that this very behavior is the source of the problem.
No easy way out folks.
http://www.mises.org if you finally want to get a good, sound, solid economic foundation and understanding of what is happening, how much worse it is going to get, and what we need to really do to get back to sound economic footing.
Ayn Rant
August 18th, 2010
12:34 pm
At last, I’m able to submit a comment early enough to make the first page instead of the third or fourth.
I’d like to take this opportunity to thank the AJC, in particular Cynthia and Kyle, for sponsoring the reader forums in the opinion section of this on-line newspaper. I can’t find such lively, popular forums in any other web newspaper. Perhaps we should buy a copy of the printed AJC occasionally to show our appreciation.
At random times throughout the week Cynthia and Kyle toss out a handful of bait to a bunch of ravenous hyenas at keyboards, triggering a frenzy of aggression, frustration, and revulsion. It’s dumb as pig drool; but it’s fun!
Yet again today, we can vent our prejudices, display our ignorance, cite mis-information as authority, confuse fancy with fact, and propose simple solutions to the complex problems of the nation and the world. Free speech is extended to everyone, even to those who have nothing worthwhile to say but can’t stop talking!
Kyle has just tossed us another installment of his never-ending series, “ain’t Obama awful”. Let’s go to it fang to jugular!
CrazyInGA
August 18th, 2010
12:46 pm
President Obama has always been in a NO WIN situation with people who think like Kyle.
DO NOTHING, DO SOMETHING; same end game blame results.
Jefferson
August 18th, 2010
12:54 pm
One day people will figure out most of the problems in their life have little to do with what goes down in DC.
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
12:58 pm
Isn’t that a little dumb, too?
That or Cloward/Piven in action.
Kyle Wingfield
August 18th, 2010
12:58 pm
Jefferson: Oh, for the day that the people in D.C. figure that out — and start acting accordingly.
Road Scholar
August 18th, 2010
1:03 pm
Yes it was stupid to predict the specific results (8%) of the stimulus, esp since the economy was in the midst of a free fall. I wonder what the unemployment would have been w/o it though. I laugh at those who said that we shouldn’t have done this and/or bail out the financial system. Do those naysayers live in a paralleel universe and know, for a fact, what the results would have been? Esp those who have no clue about the economy, business, or the state/degree of the downturn! The economy is a “ship” that cannot turn “on a dime”. Time is needed for the results to be seen, esp if additional steps are taken.
The stimulus was needed, as well as an additional infrastructure stimulus bill to create and maintain commerce, jobs, etc. This has been done in previous downturns with great success.
With all the debate on what should have been/be done, other than tax cuts for businesses, where are the Repub ideas and legislation (in writing with specifics)? It’s easy to say “no”/ I don’t support that, but heard little other than reduce the deficit. Tax cuts contributed to the deficit, esp since the wars were kept off line.
Horrible Horrace
August 18th, 2010
1:04 pm
Recovery/Stimulus…who cares. The Country is in a mess and Obama is busy scampering about in the Gulf with lil Sasha.
Horrible Horrace
August 18th, 2010
1:05 pm
Obama is so far in over his head its really getting scary.
@@
August 18th, 2010
1:06 pm
Shortly after Obama went into action, I predicted that his downfall would come from his talking too much. Now his fellow dems are getting in their two-cents worth, which basically attests to the fact that Obama’s worth about two cents.
On that we can agree.
Obama’s in waaayyyyyy over his head. The dem’s sacrificial lamb.
barking frog
August 18th, 2010
1:07 pm
Jefferson 12:54 The Problem is that what goes down
in DC has more to do with the problems in their
lives more and more each year.
Bill Balasky
August 18th, 2010
1:10 pm
But wasn’t most the spent stimulus money geared towards tax cuts and credits? Isn’t that THE SOLUTION as spoken by the neocons?
@@
August 18th, 2010
1:16 pm
In the beginning, it was like we were flying on auto-pilot.
Now that the passengers (dem pols) realize Obama doesn’t know how to fly a plane, they’ve all jumped in the pilot’s seat, and are wrestling for the controls.
Mayday…Mayday…Mayday…we’re goin’ down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Richard
August 18th, 2010
1:17 pm
“Now that the prediction has proven not just politically dumb but substantially wrong…”
Except you still have no way of knowing what would have happened without the stimulus spending and you have no way of knowing what will happen when the rest of the money is spent (assuming people start spending a greater percentage of their money driving up the supposed Keynsean multiplier).
In this case, hindsight isn’t 20/20, it’s nonexistant.
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
1:19 pm
So when are you going to admit that the trickle down theory of tax cuts are on the dumb side as well?
CJ
August 18th, 2010
1:21 pm
“Now that the prediction has proven not just politically dumb but substantially wrong,…”
Of course, the stimulus not working as well as hoped (or Obama stupidly predicted out loud) is a very different thing from the stimulus not working. But such distinctions are incomprehensible to those who insist on allowing ideology to get in the way of facts, evidence, and logic.
The so-called liberal media hasn’t reported about the scores of Congressional Republicans who voted against the Recovery Act and then showed up at ribbon cutting ceremonies to take credit for stimulus projects and corresponding jobs (that they opposed) in their districts. In addition, Kyle makes fun of “Keynesian models” while advocating on behalf of Keynesian models, albeit a twisted version of them, when advocating that we maintain the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy to, wait for it, stimulate the economy. In short, these guys are arguing with themselves.
Kyle Wingfield
August 18th, 2010
1:23 pm
Bill Balasky: Not most of it, about a third of it. But here again, as I’ve said before, not all tax cuts are created equal. Getting all workers to mindlessly spend an extra $8 a week (”mindlessly” fwiw refers to the way the tax cut works, not a comment on the workers themselves) does not change incentives to work, invest or create jobs. Alternatives mentioned at the time that probably would have worked better include reducing payroll taxes.
Richard: You’re right, we have no way of knowing what didn’t happen. What we know is that the policy was sold on the premise that it would do X, and it didn’t do X. Now, why should we consider the policy a success?
HDB`
August 18th, 2010
1:25 pm
Jefferson and Kyle: What you fail to note is that Washington sets the CLIMATE for economic determnation….and that climate is translated to the states. The economic climate IS changing…albeit slowly!! Remember….s#!t rolls downhill — the only time “trickle-down” works!!
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
August 18th, 2010
1:28 pm
Well, all I got to say is if we had the Rev. Huckabee (R–Ark.) in the White House right now, we wouldn’t have no unemployment and we could listen to some bass playing for free. And we’d all be Saved to boot. The reason we’re in such a mess is because we went away from the Divine Path and put a Moslem Towelhead in the White House. Him and the Jews and the gays.
There’s only one way to get people back to work. First Congress has got to pass a big Tax Cut for the rich. Then the big shots will have so much money they’ll be forced to hire people with it just to be able to clear a path to their front door. We’ll have Trickle Down big-time.
But you go right on not listening to me and see how poor you get. Pretty soon you’ll be trotting along behind my beer truck and begging me to toss you a can.
Have a good p.m. everybody.
Churchill's MOM
August 18th, 2010
1:29 pm
If you want to know why the stimulus isn’t working go to Wal Mart & try to buy something made in the USA. While the USA is still the leading manufacturing country, we no longer make consumable retail goods. Our tax law over the years has simply exported these jobs off shore.
Kyle Wingfield
August 18th, 2010
1:32 pm
Well, HDB, we sure have a lot of it rolling downhill toward us right now! LOL
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
1:36 pm
“What we know is that the policy was sold on the premise that it would do X, and it didn’t do X. Now, why should we consider the policy a success?”
Maybe because economic policies aren’t like microwave popcorn. It takes a while to determine a policies’ effectiveness — and we certainly need to hold judgment until the stimulus has been fully implemented.
wallbanger
August 18th, 2010
1:37 pm
Obama is in over his head? To bad he isn’t standing in water. That so called recovery bill hasn’t been spent out yet, but additional recovery bills have been passed and piled on top of the first one. It is completely nonsensical to say that government jobs stimulate anything except govt employee pockets. These employees do not produce a thing for sale in this economy. That is up to private industry, which has been taking it up the bum. Obama doesn’t particularly care for entrepreneurs and successful businessmen. He has made that abundantly clear by demonizing them every time he can. His people aren’t wealthy, don’t create anything, don’t create jobs, and most of them don’t even hold jobs. That is what we need for a continuing freefall–a trainwreck President.
B-fan
August 18th, 2010
1:43 pm
The stimulus should have come from the private sector, like Fox News giving $1 million to the GOP Governor’s Assoc. They’re about as fair and balanced as this article.
StJ
August 18th, 2010
1:51 pm
Not to mention the trainwreck Vice President, who trumpeted the stimulus BS and the 8% figure louder than anyone and has since said that 8 million jobs aren’t coming back at all.
These people demonize and denigrate wealthy people (and working people) and then wonder why all this money is sitting “idle” on the sidelines. They can’t buy a clue…even with $800+ million.
Kyle Wingfield
August 18th, 2010
1:53 pm
Bosch: But the Obama team didn’t talk about what the stimulus would eventually do. They talked in terms of what it would keep from happening at all — unemployment rising above a certain level — during this recession and recovery. Now, do you think they said such a “dumb” thing about the impact of the stimulus because they needed to oversell it for political reasons, or because they were just that bad at predictions? And do you think either case presents a suitable reason for disregarding their past advice and listening to them now?
B-fan: You’ve stumbled onto the opinions page. We give opinions here.
Linda
August 18th, 2010
1:54 pm
“We have tried spending money. We are spending more money than we have ever spent before & it does not work & I have just one interest & if I’m wrong, someone else can have my job. I want to see this country prosper. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this adm. we have just as much unemployment as when we started…& an enormous debt to boot.” Henry Mortenthau, Treas. Sec., 5/39, under oath before the House Ways & Means Committee, one of architects of the New Deal & best friends of F.D. Roosevelt.
History repeats itself once again.
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
1:55 pm
Look at paragraph 13 from that FOX/GOP donation story.
Until now, the News Corp./Fox political action committee had given 54 percent of its donations to Democrats and 46 percent to Republicans, according to the Center for Responsive Politics — including $8,000 to Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid’s campaign committee and $5,000 to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s organization. News Corp. also gave $45,000 each to GOP and Democratic campaign committees on Capitol Hill.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/17/AR2010081704338_2.html
Southern Comfort
August 18th, 2010
2:04 pm
It is completely nonsensical to say that government jobs stimulate anything except govt employee pockets.
Do government workers not pay for food, gas, clothes, mortgage/rent, etc…? That statment was a waste of bandwidth.
Kyle
Instead of just stopping with the stimulus, why not write an article on how stupid it is to allow investment banks and investors to dictate the direction of our economy versus things such as manufacturing that produce a tangible product? We’re pretty much being led around by, for lack of a better term, a huge Vegas-type casino. We all know that in casinos, the house is the overall winner, right?
@@
August 18th, 2010
2:04 pm
I just read an article where Medvedev and Putin have called a meeting of 6 Russian oligarchs to assist with recovery from the wildfires. I recall another article back in 2008 during the economic collapse, when Putin called in 16 oligarchs and demanded they fork over wealth in the interest of the state. If they didn’t…they would be targeted by the Kremlin.
The 6 now being summoned were the initial holdouts during 2008.
The funniest part? Putin said it’s their patriotic duty.
Didn’t Joe Biden say that same thing? Isn’t Obama applying economic policies that would DEMAND that same thing?
Kinda scary, the comparisons.
retiredds
August 18th, 2010
2:11 pm
Kyle, what you and the other dreamers fail to realize, much less admit, is the fact that the years and years of a boom bubble (funded by deficit spending and very poor tax policy) was bound to burst. It had been predicted in the 1990’s and early 2000’s. But the dreamers kept on going, just like the energizer bunny: taking out home loans with no down payments and only paying on the interest, politicians thinking we could fight two wars and cut taxes, people using their credit cards as if credit limits were infinity, rampant speculation all segments in the real estate markets, etc., etc. And, yes, the Obama administration overshot by saying that the unemployment rate would not exceed 8%. But, just because Obama made the statement does not release the American public from digging its own mess. And the mess will be with us for at least a decade from the beginning of the recession/depression that began in December of 2007. So, at best the bloom won’t get back on the rose until at least 2017. Anyone who believes differently if being delusional. So the smart money plans accordingly.
@@
August 18th, 2010
2:11 pm
Oops! Shoulda been Obama’s tax proposals.
Jefferson
August 18th, 2010
2:15 pm
We never should have bailed out the banks and automakers, should have just gave the money to the poor and middle class with the stipulation they had to spend it. It would be up to the bankers and auto dealers to get the money from them, thus saving their asses.
JF McNamara
August 18th, 2010
2:19 pm
Someone actually took the time to fact check one of Kyle’s articles. Are you really that big now?
http://beyondthetrestle.com/blog/quick-fact-check-kyle-wingfield
Bruno
August 18th, 2010
2:20 pm
Kyle–Sorry for the interruption, but I wanted to share a most amazing/inspiring video that I just saw of a Chinese piano player who lost both arms in an accident as a child:
http://new.music.yahoo.com/blogs/realityrocks/385927/armless-pianist-liu-wei-defies-odds-on-chinas-got-talent/
Every so often we need to remind ourselves of how fortunate we really are.
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
2:24 pm
Kyle,
Well of course it was for political purposes to sell the stimulus, but why hold them accountable for making such statements and not all politicians in regards to policy? And please, you want to talk brass tacks about what a politician says is going to happen and what actually does? Does “they will greet us as liberators?” or “the war will pay for itself” ring any bells? Because we do have actual hindsight, facts and history to look at in regards to some policies set forth by our POTUS, and in my opinion, spending a trillion or so in the sand ghettos half way around the world did more to damage our economy which, in turn, forced Obama to make the decision to spend money here (i.e. stimulus).
But as to the topic at hand, either side could argue success or failure. Again, that is pure politics in motion. No matter what Obama and his team does, I find it hard to believe that you would analyze their actions with an unbiased eye.
CJ
August 18th, 2010
2:26 pm
“Getting all workers to mindlessly spend an extra $8 a week [$400 per worker and $288 billion total tax cuts]…does not change incentives to work, invest or create jobs.”
Yet, that is exactly the argument that faux-conservatives are making when advocating for extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy—that spending (i.e., customers) no matter how mindlessly, creates incentives to work, invest, and create jobs (again, arguing with themselves). The nuance (faux-conservatives don’t like nuance) is that cuts for those at the top (costing trillions over the course of a decade) are more likely to be pocketed, leaving the economy little or no better off as a result.
On the other hand, spending on economic and physical infrastructure (e.g., rapid transit, education, bridges, highways, dams, levies, clean energy, manufacturing), something conservatives simultaneously oppose when voting and take credit for when the ribbons are cut, will continue to create jobs far into the future.
Dave
August 18th, 2010
2:26 pm
“Someone actually took the time to fact check one of Kyle’s articles. Are you really that big now?”
It’d be interesting to see if anyone would do the same thing w/Tucker’s and Bookman’s blogs
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
2:29 pm
It’d be interesting to see if anyone would do the same thing w/Tucker’s and Bookman’s blogs
Dave,
I believe it’s illegal to hunt over a baited field.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
2:32 pm
I’m really unhappy, because your blog ate my original post. I’ll try and recreate as much as I can.
First, to the claim about promising to hold unemployment to under 8%; not so much according to Politifact:
politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/jul/09/eric-cantor/Cantor-and-other-republicans-say-obama-promised-s/
“What we can rule on, however, is whether the Obama administration “promised” that unemployment rates would not rise above 8 percent if the stimulus were passed. We could find no instance of anyone in the administration directly making such a public pledge.
What we saw from the administration in January was a projection, not a promise. And it was a projection that came with heavy disclaimers.
There’s also a footnote that goes along with the chart that states: “Forecasts of the unemployment rate without the recovery plan vary substantially. Some private forecasters anticipate unemployment rates as high as 11% in the absence of action.”
Secondly, with regards to the stimulus (recovery) plan’s effectiveness, I found this from the council of economic advisors:
crfb.org/blogs/measuring-effects-arra
And I quote: “CEA estimates that the 2009 stimulus has boosted GDP by 2.7 percent and raised employment by 2.5 million jobs since February 2009, relative to what would have occured absent the stimulus.”
Seems to me that it’s been pretty effective.
Southern Comfort
August 18th, 2010
2:33 pm
I believe it’s illegal to hunt over a baited field.
That would be the case for all of them. Just because it’s their opinion doesn’t mean it’s completely factual.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
2:34 pm
BTW, Ezra Klein at the Washington Post has an interesting graph comparing Bush’s tax cuts with Obama’s:
voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/
Dave
August 18th, 2010
2:36 pm
“On the other hand, spending on economic and physical infrastructure (e.g., rapid transit, education, bridges, highways, dams, levies, clean energy, manufacturing), something conservatives simultaneously oppose when voting and take credit for when the ribbons are cut, will continue to create jobs far into the future.”
Monorail!…. Monorail!…. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEZjzsnPhnw
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
2:37 pm
Some private forecasters anticipate unemployment rates as high as 11% in the absence of action.
That sure sounds like the administration was claiming that 11% number as a worst case scenario without Porkulous and we darn near got there with it.
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
2:37 pm
So Kyle, are you saying the US unemployment rate would’ve been lower absent the stimulus? or perhaps the same?
No More Progressives!
August 18th, 2010
2:38 pm
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
1:19 pm
So when are you going to admit that the trickle down theory of tax cuts are on the dumb side as well?
When you can demonstrate that they don’t work.
Dave
August 18th, 2010
2:39 pm
But we all know that the gov’t has our best interests in mind and would know how to spend our money better than we would ever know….
[sarcasm for thos of you who missed it]
left wing
August 18th, 2010
2:42 pm
RW-(the original) and, for that matter, stands for decibels Here’s what would have happened without the government intervention:
As I pointed out above, the stimulus itself created/saved 2.5 million jobs. Add to that another 3 million from bailing out GM and Chrysler. That means that if the Republicans had their way, we’d be (at least) another 6 million jobs in the hole.
BTW, Republicans were so unhappy that we were bailing out GM, but I see that they’re reporting a profit now, and are ready for another IPO to get out of government control, so gee, seems like another “big government program” that seems to have worked out quite well.
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
2:46 pm
left wing,
Are you by any chance riding around town on a unicorn, sprinkling magic dust?
JP
August 18th, 2010
2:48 pm
I’ll never understand why politicians stupidly predict such crazy success in anything. Obama is the latest. Remember when Bush said the Iraq war would cost around $100 billion. Aren’t we closer to 10 times that amount?
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
2:48 pm
“Jobs forecast not the only ‘dumb’ thing about stimulus ‘
Yeah, Obama being the dumbest thing of all.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
2:49 pm
No More Progressives! @ 2:38 – I would have thought that the tax cuts under Bush II were proof enough that tax cuts don’t work. Median income dropped, the stock market was basically flat until 2006 (and then crashed dramatically in 2007).
What proof do you have that tax cuts work?
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
2:49 pm
“As I pointed out above, the stimulus itself created/saved 2.5 million jobs.”
Where’s your proof, ma’am?
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
2:49 pm
“I’m really unhappy”
Your problem, not ours.
Dave
August 18th, 2010
2:50 pm
ah yes, the dubious “jobs saved” number… which no one really knows how to calculate and most of the numbers have been debunked by various sources.
From the Hill today:
“The report also accuses President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden of leveraging their White House platform “to promote websites designed to disseminate propaganda.” It argues the claims made on Recovery.gov about jobs saved or created by the stimulus are fictitious and misleading, citing news reports and individual instances in which the displayed figures appeared to be incorrect.
The report notes the White House responded to critical reports by changing the displayed metric from “Jobs Created/Saved” to “Recovery Funded Jobs Reported by Recipients” but says there is no evidence the reported figures are any more accurate.”
left wing
August 18th, 2010
2:50 pm
RW-(the original) @ 2:46 – No, actually I’m quoting from really wierd sources like the Council of Economic Advisors. After all, what would they know about, you know, economics?
If you can’t believe them, I guess you’re the one on the unicorn.
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
2:52 pm
“No matter what Obama and his team does, I find it hard to believe that you would analyze their actions with an unbiased eye.”
Awe, poor little bed wetter. Bosch, it sucks when your dad is away, don’t it.
Dave
August 18th, 2010
2:52 pm
Come on guys, we all know trickle-up poverty worked so well everywhere it was tried (ie the Soviet Union and Cuba)…..
left wing
August 18th, 2010
2:52 pm
Grand Forks @ 2:49 – I posted the link to the article from the CEA. You just have to be able to read to get your proof.
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
2:52 pm
Legitimate question here I don’t know the answer too, but is part of the reason that Obama is characterized as the “most spendingest POTUS evah” because he actually put the cost of the war in Afghanistan on the books instead of conveniently leaving it off like Bush did?
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
2:53 pm
“Ezra Klein at the Washington Post”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!! That retard can’t even count!!!!!
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
2:53 pm
“You just have to be able to read to get your proof.”
Awe, little bed wetter can’t actually tell us WHAT jobs were saved.
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
2:54 pm
“Legitimate question here I don’t know the answer too’
That’s your everyday life, Botch.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
2:55 pm
Dave @ 2:50 – Economists use the standard model of our economy to gauge the effectiveness of any economic stimuli (stimuli including tax cuts, tarriffs, devaluation of money, not just stimulus packages). All mainstream economists use the same model, both conservative and liberal. I’m sure Mr. Wingfield would agree.
Southern Comfort
August 18th, 2010
2:55 pm
Are you by any chance riding around town on a unicorn, sprinkling magic dust?
I didn’t think they’d be here until the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade.
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
2:56 pm
“Economists use the standard model of our economy”
Economists also think Obama is retarded.
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
2:56 pm
Remember when Bush said the Iraq war would cost around $100 billion.
They actually said it would be more like half that.
(I’d kinda forgotten about this, but apparently the Bush administration gave Lawrence Lindsey the boot for having the temerity to suggest in 2002 it was going to cost between 100-200 billion.)
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
2:57 pm
RW @ 2:46,
He better not be, that’s my gig!
left wing
August 18th, 2010
2:57 pm
Grand Forks – Since you can’t disagree with actual numbers and facts (and I provided links from respectible credible sources) you have to resort to really sad pitiful name calling.
It must be sad to live life as you.
Dave
August 18th, 2010
2:57 pm
Here’s some comforting news from The Street:
Double-Dip Recession a ‘Virtual Certainty’
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
2:58 pm
“Since you can’t disagree with actual numbers and facts ”
You didn’t post any, ma’am.
“you have to resort to really sad pitiful name calling.”
Poor whittle wib.
“It must be sad to live life as you.’
You mean wealthy?
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
2:59 pm
“and I provided links from respectible credible sources”
ST. Pete Times is not a credible source, ma’am.
Linda
August 18th, 2010
3:00 pm
Corporations & the rich don’t pay taxes. For example, in ‘08 Goldman Sachs made a a profit of $ 2 billion. They paid $10 billion in compensation & benefits (some using TARP funds). They paid taxes of 1% which happened to be 1/3 of the $43 million of what their CEO took home.
Our tax structure is a piece of junk. All is takes is one half-sober CPA to figure out the system. Money is moved around the world making it appear that earnings took place in foreign countries with low tax rates. They ship revenues offshore & defer taxes on them indefinitely while claiming deductions.
Between ‘98 until ‘95, 2/3 of all US corps. paid no taxes at all.
Corporations, the wealthy & the rich can afford the best (sober) CPAs.
If the Bush tax cuts expire on the top 2 income brackets, the vast majority of the people who will be be paying higher taxes are small business owners & unemployment will increase.
How many EMPLOYEES make $350,000, $500,000, & $700,000 per year?
left wing
August 18th, 2010
3:01 pm
From Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s:
economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/End-of-Great-Recession.pdf
“In this paper, we use the Moody’s Analytics model of the U.S. economy—adjusted to accommodate some recent financial-market policies—to simulate the macroeconomic effects of the government’s total policy response. We find that its effects on real GDP, jobs, and inflation are huge, and probably averted what could have been called Great Depression 2.0. For example, we estimate that, without the government’s response, GDP in 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, payroll employment would be less by some 8½ million jobs, and the nation would now be experiencing deflation.”
“When we divide these effects into two components—one attributable to the fiscal stimulus and the other attributable
to financial-market policies such as the TARP, the bank stress tests and the Fed’s quantitative easing—
we estimate that the latter was substantially more powerful than the former. Nonetheless, the effects of the fiscal stimulus alone appear very substantial, raising 2010 real GDP by about 3.4%, holding the unemployment
rate about 1½ percentage points lower, and adding almost 2.7 million jobs to U.S. payrolls. These estimates of the fiscal impact are broadly consistent with those made by the CBO and the Obama administration.”
Dave
August 18th, 2010
3:03 pm
Farewell “Saved or Created”: Obama Administration Changes the Counting of Stimulus Jobs*
“The Obama administration has taken some heat and mockery for using the nebulous and non-economic term of jobs being “saved or created” by the $787 billion stimulus program.
So it’s gotten rid of it.
In a little-noticed December 18, 2009 memo from Office of Management and Budget director Peter Orszag the Obama administration is changing the way stimulus jobs are counted.
The memo, first noted by ProPublica, says that those receiving stimulus funds no longer have to say whether a job has been saved or created.
“Instead, recipients will more easily and objectively report on jobs funded with Recovery Act dollars,” Orszag wrote.”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/01/farewell-saved-or-created-obama-administration-changes-the-counting-of-stimulus-jobs.html
left wing
August 18th, 2010
3:05 pm
Linda @ 3:00 – So, you’re arguing for increased corporate tax and a higher tax bracket on upper incomes (or for eliminating some tax loopholes for them)? I’m all for it!
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
3:06 pm
Bosch,
Do you realize there’s never been an Obama budget passed in Congress?
Dave
August 18th, 2010
3:08 pm
Stimulus Created/Saved 650,000 Jobs? There’s No Way to Know for Sure
“It’s easy to ridicule the White House’s estimate that 650,000 jobs have so far been “saved or created” by the $150 billion spent so far from their $787 billion stimulus bill. That’s because while it’s possible to measure jobs created by the stimulus (for example, counting the number of construction workers on an infrastructure project funded by the bill), it’s a lot less clear how you measure jobs saved by it.
“One can search economic textbooks forever without finding a concept called ‘jobs saved’,” said Allan Meltzer, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, in a memo to House of Representatives Republican leader John Boehner today. “How can anyone know that his or her job has been saved?”
The disparate estimates come down to the multiplier effect. There are jobs directly created, and then there are jobs that are created or saved because the direct beneficiaries are still employed. For example, the stimulus money may have financed a construction workers’ job, but it also may have saved the job of someone at the grocery store where he shops. There’s also the issue of government jobs saved. Many states were planning layoffs that were either canceled or postponed because of stimulus money. But again, those numbers are difficult to quantify.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/10/30/stimulus-created-or-saved-650000-theres-no-way-to-know-for-sure/
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
3:12 pm
RW,
An Obama budget? What is that?
Jefferson
August 18th, 2010
3:12 pm
At some point people should stop crying over taxes increases and plan for it, or you will be out of business.
Dave
August 18th, 2010
3:14 pm
Hmmm…. could we see a repeat?
FDR’s policies prolonged Depression by 7 years, UCLA economists calculate
“Two UCLA economists say they have figured out why the Great Depression dragged on for almost 15 years, and they blame a suspect previously thought to be beyond reproach: President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
After scrutinizing Roosevelt’s record for four years, Harold L. Cole and Lee E. Ohanian conclude in a new study that New Deal policies signed into law 71 years ago thwarted economic recovery for seven long years.
“Why the Great Depression lasted so long has always been a great mystery, and because we never really knew the reason, we have always worried whether we would have another 10- to 15-year economic slump,” said Ohanian, vice chair of UCLA’s Department of Economics. “We found that a relapse isn’t likely unless lawmakers gum up a recovery with ill-conceived stimulus policies.” ”
http://www.newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409.aspx
Kyle Wingfield
August 18th, 2010
3:15 pm
left-wing: We’ve already hashed out that Zandi report ad nauseum on here. Summary: The vast majority of the gains he estimates stemmed from monetary policy (e.g., the TARP, quantitative easing by the Fed) rather than fiscal policy like the stimulus; even the gains he attributes to the stimulus are input-based rather than output-based (i.e., his multiplier says that spending $X produces Y jobs, and we spent $X, therefore we must have produced Y jobs); and even these gains were lower in value than the stimulus money we spent to “achieve” them.
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
3:15 pm
Bosch,
You’re the one claiming Obama has somehow put the cost of war on books that Bush didn’t, but the only place there’s any difference is in Obama’s claim to put those costs in his budget and his budget has never been passed into law so there isn’t any difference at all in the way those costs are currently being accounted for.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
3:19 pm
Dave @ 3:14 – That’s just right wing hyperbole trying to rewrite Roosevelt’s legacy. Now that those who lived back then are dead, it seems like an easy mark.
To me, the proof of Roosevelt’s policies is that he built a solid Democratic majority in the House which lasted for 40 years, and outside of electing Eisenhour (a war hero) President, Kept the Presidency in Democratic hands from 1932-1968. I’d say the people spoke volumes about what they thought of President Roosevelt’s policies.
Linda
August 18th, 2010
3:21 pm
left wing @ 2:32, I left a comment for you on the blog from yesterday. Go read it.
2:34, incomplete web site
2:49, Tax cuts didn’t cause the stock market to “crash.” Proof? history
2:50, The Council of Economic Advisers are O’s guys, 3 teachers who have never had a fruit stand.
3:01, It’s rhetoric.
3:05, It doesn’t matter what the tax rates are. Corps. nor wealth people PAY taxes.
Grand Forks
August 18th, 2010
3:22 pm
“An Obama budget? What is that?”
Like I said, Bosch is not the sharpest tool in the shed.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
3:26 pm
Kyle Wingfield @ 3:15 – Here’s a different article Mark did:
lacrossetribune.com/news/opinion/article_7e1ff8e8-9e83-11df-a30c-001cc4c002e0.html
“Critics have also objected to the fiscal stimulus as a case of government overreach and ineptitude. They could not be more wrong.
It is no coincidence that the recession ended when it did — about a year ago — just as the stimulus was providing its maximum economic benefit. Emergency unemployment-insurance benefits and tax cuts put cash into Americans’ pockets that they have largely spent, supporting sales and employment. And without help from the federal government, state and local governments would have slashed payrolls and raised taxes at just the wrong time. (Even with the stimulus, state and local governments have been cutting, and they will cut much more.)
Stimulus infrastructure spending is now kicking into high gear, and it will be a significant source of jobs through at least this time next year. And business-tax cuts have contributed to more investment and hiring.
Setting the record straight on the stimulus question is important because it will shape the current debate about how government should manage the still-fragile economic recovery. Last month, partly because of the misconception that the stimulus didn’t work, Congress was barely able to muster enough votes to pass another extension of emergency unemployment benefits. Not doing so would have been a serious error, putting the recovery in jeopardy.
The mistaken view that the stimulus failed also threatens to short-circuit federal assistance to hard-pressed state governments. That, too, would be a mistake.
Yes, the economy is still struggling, but not because the policy response failed. Our troubles persist, rather, because the problems at the root of the financial panic and the Great Recession ran so deep.
There have been missteps for sure, but government has served us well. We must not lose sight of that now, because the economy still needs help.”
@@
August 18th, 2010
3:26 pm
I just read another article by Professor Lessig, a self-proclaimed progressive, who says Obama is a defender of the status quo.
It’s becoming almost impossible to compartmentalize left-wingers these days.
Some are even doubting the stimulus, saying the economy would be improving had Obama just given money to citizens rather than the banking industry.
It’s like travelling thru a maze with left-wingers popping up at every turn…each with a different solution because………………….
Obama’s aren’t working?
Weird!
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
3:29 pm
No, RW, I was asking. But nevermind, I found out what I was looking for:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/us/politics/20budget.html
Thanks though.
Dave
August 18th, 2010
3:31 pm
wow… there’s conservatives in the UCLA economics dept? That’s news to me….
But I’m sure he was popular at the time. You had a lot of people with their hands out and the gov’t right there to fill them….
left wing
August 18th, 2010
3:32 pm
Linda @ 3:21 – I saw you did. And I responded to it.
??? I just checked both links I left at the 2:34 post. Both worked.
2:49 – I didn’t say tax cuts caused the market to crash. I said they didn’t ‘trickle down’.
2:50 – 3 guys who know a heckuva lot more about economics than I do (and presumably you as well).
3:05 – And we agree on this. We need to cut the loopholes on corporations and the truely wealthy. Because they shift the tax burden to people like us.
3:01 – It’s Mark Zandi’s rhetoric. Argue with him.
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
3:37 pm
Bosch 3:29,
That’s a pretty funny article considering what we now know. Thanks for the laugh.
Linda
August 18th, 2010
3:38 pm
“More people believe that Elvis Presley is alive than the stimulus created jobs,” said Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Cal.
(He died?)
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
3:39 pm
RW,
Feel free to enlighten us with what we now know to be false. Thanks!
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
3:43 pm
Bosch 3:39,
The fact that he hasn’t even passed a budget isn’t enough of a clue?
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
3:45 pm
RW,
Aww, come on, tell us, I popped popcorn and everything, just waiting for the story.
@@
August 18th, 2010
3:49 pm
Rather long, but interesting.
The Matter of Deficits, Sovereign Default, and Modern Monetary Theory
Government’s smoke and mirrors.
Money, money, money, mooooney….the government has us chasing a figment of their imagination.
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
3:53 pm
I don’t suppose I’ll get an answer to my question @ 2.37, so let me post a hypothetical: Assuming for just a moment that absent the stimulus, unemployment would now be 10% instead of 9.5%, one could make a case that the half-percentage difference wasn’t worth the spending. I guess.
So, to put it plainly: Is anyone who feels the stimulus was wrong (i.e., too much, or the evilest-thing-in-the-history-of-evil, or somewhere in between, whatever) willing to say what percentage difference WOULD be worth the spending?
CJ
August 18th, 2010
3:54 pm
Kyle: “We’ve already hashed out that Zandi report ad nauseum on here. Summary: The vast majority of the gains he estimates stemmed from monetary policy (e.g., the TARP, quantitative easing by the Fed) …”
It’s good to see that Kyle, at least, agrees that TARP served it’s purpose. It’s also good to see that he agrees that the Fed can and does have a role in maintaining full employment, although they seem to have little interest in carrying out such duties these days.
“Today, the Federal Reserve’s duties fall into four general areas:
* conducting the nation’s monetary policy by influencing the monetary and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates ”
http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/mission.htm
On the other hand, no matter how many times Kyle cherry-picks the McCain/Palin economic advisor’s research (he’s right, we have been through this ad nauseum) to dismiss its findings, Zandi’s report also concludes that we’d have millions fewer jobs without the stimulus
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
3:56 pm
Bosch,
Your story a month into the Obama administration says he won’t allow any accounting gimmicks and everything will be on budget with full transparency. A year and a half later the government runs exclusively on continuing resolutions and “emergency” appropriations bills.
Hope that’s clear enough for you, but somehow I doubt it.
Anyway, I’ve got to scoot.
Catch y’all later
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
4:00 pm
You lefties are really gonna have to get to work spreading your sunshine and roses message.
@@
August 18th, 2010
4:00 pm
Wuh Oh!!!
Schools Not Using Stimulus to Hire Teachers
They’re saving it for an imminent rainy day
As schools handed out pink slips to teachers this spring, states made a beeline to Washington to plead for money for their ravaged education budgets. But now that the federal government has come through with $10 billion, some of the nation’s biggest school districts are balking at using their share of the money to hire teachers right away.
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
4:00 pm
RW,
“A year and a half later the government runs exclusively on continuing resolutions and “emergency” appropriations bills.”
Way to miss that point. Again, and why exactly is that? I don’t think it has so much to do with the branch of government that Obama runs.
CJ
August 18th, 2010
4:00 pm
Kyle’s entire argument comes down to this–> Obama projected no more than 8 percent unemployment. Unemployment is higher than 8 percent. Therefore, the stimulus didn’t work and should never have been passed and implemented.
That makes as much sense as saying a diet didn’t work and that it should never have been embarked upon in the first place because you planned on losing 100 pounds, but lost 80 pounds instead.
Linda
August 18th, 2010
4:02 pm
left @ 3:32, You didn’t respond to me after I left you a response today @ 1:32 on Kyle’s blog from yesterday. Where is it? I think this blog proves what I wrote.
2:34, It’s not a link unless it appears in blue. You must copy the entire site starting with http://
2:49, You said nothing about “trickle down.”
2:50, 3 good teachers. That’s all.
3:01, Hogwash!
3:05, In your dreams!
Southern Comfort
August 18th, 2010
4:04 pm
some of the nation’s biggest school districts are balking at using their share of the money to hire teachers right away.
Maybe they’re imitating the CEO’s that everyone’s so enamored with. Unlike the Fed, most or maybe even all states can not operate with a deficit. Sounds like they’re copying a page out of the Wall Street/Business strategy for economic downturns.
Kyle Wingfield
August 18th, 2010
4:07 pm
CJ @ 3:54: And you still haven’t explained why we should put faith in an inputs-based model when the output-based evidence suggests it did nothing of the sort.
CJ @4:00: Here’s the more precise analogy: Obama put us on a diet, we gained 20 pounds, and he’s telling us we would have gained 50 if we hadn’t been dieting.
@@
August 18th, 2010
4:11 pm
So…did the school’s require emergency spending?
Obviously not.
@@
August 18th, 2010
4:14 pm
SoCo:
Think stimulating unions ahead of November’s elections. That’s what Obama’s latest stimulus was all about.
It’s like watching a three-ring circus.
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
4:23 pm
BRUNO\
Thanks for an inspiring link…
SoCo
Remember back when folks took to yapping that schools ought to be run like businesses?
The Thread…
Barney FranK? I’m a guest here at Kyle’s so I’ll just keep my mouth shut…
Peter
August 18th, 2010
4:27 pm
Kyle whjat are Republican’s doing for the economy ?
Georgia is in shambles so how would Republican’s do any better currently ?
left wing
August 18th, 2010
4:29 pm
Linda @ 4:02 – Sorry, didn’t see your last post there.
OK, you’re questioning the timing of passage vs the unemployment rate. You are correct that ARRA passed on 2/11/09. Please review the following graph:
google.com/publicdatads=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+rate+graph
And I admit my ignorance that I don’t know how to post hyperlinks here. If I leave the full url, it goes to ‘waiting for moderation’. If you’d share the technique, I’d appreciate it.
We are a capitalist society, but free market? Not so much. Free markets imply equal knowledge of both sides. Think tomato stand. You know what the price of tomatoes are at grocery stores, so you know if you’re getting a “good deal” or not. In this country, most markets have knowledge shifted to “them”. Let’s take health care. Insurance companies write policies which are “difficult at best” to compare between companies. Deliberately, I say. And you go to see a Doctor, specifically because of the knowledge he has. When he recommends a treatment, you tend to take his advice, because he has superior knowledge. No; we don’t really have free markets here.
Where I think we agree is that (especially since the middle ’70s) the tax burden has significantly shifted from the corporations and truely wealthy in this country to us. And I’m all for elimination of their tax loopholes. The problem is, (and I think you also agree) that truely neither Dems or Reps work for us. They get very generous campaign contributions from corporations and the truely rich to keep those loopholes in place. If you have a good suggestion as to how to fix this, I’d love to hear it.
Southern Comfort
August 18th, 2010
4:29 pm
@@
I don’t think unions have much to do with it. If that were the case, the unions would be all over the systems about not hiring teachers. I really wouldn’t know though.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
4:30 pm
Ooops; almost forgot. If you check the graph, it says unemployment was at 8.5% in Jan 2009.
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
4:31 pm
Peter,
“Georgia is in shambles so how would Republican’s do any better currently ?”
Duh, they’d cut taxes, cause we all know that fixes everything!
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
4:32 pm
SoCo,
There are no teacher unions in Georgia. Just saying.
Linda
August 18th, 2010
4:43 pm
Stand @ 3:53, We’ve had about $3 T of spending in 19 mts., more than at any period in history. The economic stimulus bill was the largest spending bill in the history of our country, probably in the world. Liberals complain about 2 wars that are unpaid for. The stimulus would have paid for both of them, a total of 14 yrs. as of 2/09. It could have paid off our debt to China.
To pay for this bill, banks are borrowing money from the Fed. Res. at almost zero per cent & loaning it back to the Treas. @ 4.5%, RATHER than loaning money to small businesses, since the risk with t-notes is almost non-existent & the rates are about the same. Spending money we did not have hurt the employers who provide 80% of jobs.
The US has run out of options. Bernake announced last wk. he would begin monetizing the debt, what he swore 6 mts. ago he would never do.
Moral hazard is the behavior created when a person or co. is insulated from risk & not having to suffer from the full consequences & responsibilities from their actions. Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac made the risky loans that they did (& cooked their books) because they knew the fed. govt. would bail them out, over & over again.
We take care of widows, orphans, veterans, the elderly, etc. but corporate welfare is morally wrong & unconstitutional. This is not just our money but that of our great great grandchildren & should not be used by politicians to buy votes from campaign donors. We are a free enterprise, capitalist country, not a socialist/Marxist centralized govt. We deserve the right to fail.
Southern Comfort
August 18th, 2010
4:45 pm
Bosch
I know that, but there are people who don’t, so I appreciate you posting that.
@@
August 18th, 2010
4:50 pm
Bosch:
Most of the school districts mentioned weren’t in Georgia. I don’t even think Georgia was mentioned.
Are you so eager to………
oh nevermind.
You’ve always been a waste of energy.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
4:52 pm
Linda @ 4:43 – Interest rates are down to zero; AKA the zero lower bound. And at the zero lower bound, you can do things like monatize debt (increase the money supply) without risk of inflation. Frankly, I think we need some more inflation. The Fed has a 2% target and we’re currently at 1.2%.
“To pay for this bill, banks are borrowing money from the Fed. Res. at almost zero per cent & loaning it back to the Treas. @ 4.5%”, – really? I thought to pay for the bill, they sell treasury bills on the market (which incurs debt on our part). How does a bank borrowing money from the Fed pay for the bill?
@@
August 18th, 2010
4:55 pm
SoCo:
If you’d read the article, you’d know that the unions are already pressuring the districts.
Teachers’ unions are strongly urging districts to use the money right away to keep class sizes manageable and to reduce the jobless rolls.
Unions….strong arming for Obama.
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
4:56 pm
@@,
That would probably be because GA balked at stimulus money that was offered, they did receive some, and that’s how they kept many teachers on payroll last year, but now the legislators are falling over themselves to try and get as much federal money as they can.
See, being married to a teacher, I hear things, instead of getting my information about education from unemployed teaching paraprofessionals.
@@
August 18th, 2010
5:01 pm
Bosch:
You’re a house husband?
unemployed teaching paraprofessionals.
Meeeoooowwww, girlfriend!!!!
I was the only teacher in the classroom. There would have to be another, before I’d qualify as a parapro. Last year I was a volunteer, this year I’m on voluntary furlough.
I’ll be back.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
5:02 pm
Um, Linda I don’t know what’s going on with the link I tried to post regarding the graph of unemployment, but I just tried it and it didn’t work.
Go to google; use ‘unemployment rate graph’ as the search arguement. The first link is google.com/publicdata. You can see the chart there.
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
5:05 pm
BOSCH
That paraprofessional snipe was a bit low…that group of people do more to keep our school running and bringing home the honors than just about any other
Southern Comfort
August 18th, 2010
5:05 pm
@@
I’ll have to read it after I pick up the lil one from daycare. That’s one of the places where I use Federal dollars to stimulate the economy. (ISH)
Linda
August 18th, 2010
5:09 pm
left @ 4:29, See the blue links above @ 1:55, 2:19, 2:20, 2:36, 3:03, etc They all start with http://
They do have have google in them. When you get to an article, copy exactly what is in the line at the top of your screen. Sometimes you have to space over to the far right to uncover what’s hidden if it’s a long header. It’s best to type the link on a separate line all by itself with a blank line above & below. Go to one of Kyle’s old blogs & practice, but don’t tell him I suggested it. Ha! It will turn blue on it’s own if you do it correctly. After you submit you comment/web site, try it yourself to see if takes you to the site.
Capitalism & free markets are basically the same & have nothing to do with buying tomatoes or insurance. You can be ignorant of BOTH sides as long as you are free to choose.
All the contributions in the world don’t replace the power of the people at the voting booth. Alvin Greene is a great example.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
5:13 pm
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+rate+graph
left wing
August 18th, 2010
5:16 pm
sunofagun, it worked. I swear I tried it before but . . . . .
Try the link I just posted.
And I respectfully disagree about the definition. A condition of a free market is where both the buyer & seller have equal market information.
Linda
August 18th, 2010
5:43 pm
left @ 5:16, I have bought stuff from sellers who were loony as fruitcakes & buyers who buy Volts are equally loony. There are suckers in the market place.
Linda
August 18th, 2010
5:45 pm
left, It’s been fun. Gotta go.
left wing
August 18th, 2010
5:48 pm
GM files IPO paperwork: Automaker will be listed on U.S. and Canadien Exchanges
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/18/gm-ipo_n_686420.html
DETROIT — General Motors Co. on Wednesday filed the first batch of paperwork required by regulators to sell stock to the public, a step that brings the automaker closer to its goal of shedding government ownership.
GM, leaner and more efficient than it was before a stay in bankruptcy protection last year, earned $2.2 billion in the first half of this year despite depressed U.S. auto sales.
Gee, I guess it was a good thing that President Obama didn’t let GM go bankrupt, after all.
CJ
August 18th, 2010
5:59 pm
Kyle: “And you still haven’t explained why we should put faith in an inputs-based model when the output-based evidence suggests it did nothing of the sort.”
Just because the output-based evidence supporting the stimulus contradicts your world view, it doesn’t mean it isn’t there. Look at job net losses before the Recovery Act was implemented and compare to net job losses after the Recovery Act took effect (beginning summer ‘09) . What is that? Something like 7.5 million jobs lost versus about 40,000? Look at economic growth before and after. Look at profits before and after. The output-based evidence overwhelmingly supports the effectiveness of the stimulus, irregardless of the fact that the “liberal” media won’t report it.
By the way, I accept your analogy. If switching from 1/2 pound burgers to 1/4 pound burgers mitigates the damage, then why not take the next step and switch to turkey burgers on wheat? Either way, your logic–or lack thereof–is flawed.
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
6:01 pm
Well josef, I know that. What snipe are you referring to? I’m sorry, but I take preference of information about the Georgia public school system from those who actually work in it — like I wrote, the one I happened to be married to.
F. Sinkwich
August 18th, 2010
6:18 pm
“Gee, I guess it was a good thing that President Obama didn’t let GM go bankrupt, after all.”
Uh, no.
GM would be in much better shape now had they declared bankruptcy and restructured a year and a half ago.
And the taxpayers wouldn’t be on the hook for $61 billion.
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
6:19 pm
BOSCH
This one…
“See, being married to a teacher, I hear things, instead of getting my information about education from unemployed teaching paraprofessionals.”
problem solved
August 18th, 2010
6:23 pm
Josef…You claim to be a liberal democrat….Yet you can’t stand..Al Franken, Barbara Boxer, Barney Frank or the President…What gives? Who else is on your list?
CJ
August 18th, 2010
6:31 pm
On this topic, there’s an interview in today’s NY Times with terrorist/Senate wannabe Sharon Angle (i.e., “If we don’t win at the ballot box, then we should exercise our 2nd Amendment rights.) about the dreaded, yet proven, Keynesian models.
“Q. Did Keynesian economics, the stimulus spending, work in the Depression of the ’30s?
Angle: No. And I think history has really proven that to be true. Most economists agree that the thing that really worked, which is a sad commentary, is the war.”
As I recall, that’s pretty much Kyle’s position too.
Again, these people are arguing with themselves. Although I wouldn’t be surprised, I haven’t seen faux-conservatives disagree that WWII had a positive side effect on our economic problems and returned us to full employment for the long-term. Essentially, they’re asserting that Keynesian economics and stimulus spending don’t work while arguing that Keynesian economics and stimulus spending (WWII) ended the Great Depression once and for all. The federal government created new manufacturing on a massive scale which put people to work, grew the economy,… If faux-conservatives realize the war improved the economy, then their contempt for the underlying economics (actually, arithmetic) rings hollow.
Oh yeah, that was 70 years ago. Kyle would have us believe that the laws of mathematics no longer apply. Nevertheless.
CJ
August 18th, 2010
6:31 pm
Here’s the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/18/us/politics/18angle.html
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 18th, 2010
6:39 pm
My view is that we are in a long-term downturn and stimulus/no stimulus, we’d be in about the same place. So given my druthers, I’d have tried it “no stimulus” for a while. We just have to hang on ride it out. While this hasn’t been as bad as the Depression so far, remember it lasted from roughly 1929-1942, give or take.
As a boy, my Grandpa used to tell me, “Boy, never miss a chance to keep your mouth shut”. You’d think by now politicians would have learned that but it seems they never do.
md
August 18th, 2010
6:40 pm
“the Obama administration now is making it easier to give the stimulus credit for hiring. It’s no longer about counting a job as saved or created; now it’s a matter of counting jobs funded by the stimulus.
That means that any stimulus money used to cover payroll will be included in the jobs credited to the program, including pay raises for existing employees and pay for people who never were in jeopardy of losing their positions.”
Smoke and mirrors – believe at your own peril………………….
F. Sinkwich
August 18th, 2010
6:41 pm
Well, since it was published in the NYT it must be true.
Krugman is published there too you know.
Southern Comfort
August 18th, 2010
6:45 pm
“Boy, never miss a chance to keep your mouth shut”.
If they did that, how would we get our daily rations of soundbites?
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
6:48 pm
HD @ 6.39, I can understand your druthers. I happen to believe we’d be in worse shape (who knows if it’d be significantly so, I’m inclined to say we would) if we’d gone the austerity route, but different strokes and all that.
Linda @ 4.43, thanks for the primer on conservative economic theory, but you haven’t actually addressed my hypothetical posted @ 3.53.
I don’t imagine anyone will because they’re assuming it’s some kinda “gotcha,” which it isn’t. I just wondered if anyone was willing to say that yes, XXX billion would be worth X percent less unemployment.
@@
August 18th, 2010
6:59 pm
Hillbilly:
“Boy, never miss a chance to keep your mouth shut”.
And my Dad always said “There’s a reason God gave you two ears and only one mouth. It’s so you can listen twice as much as you speak.”
josef:
I appreciate your support, but don’t worry yourself with what Bosch said. I’m not!
I’ve always found that Bosch overcompensates with petty pretentiousness due to a deficiency of intelligence and integrity.
No big deal.
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
7:02 pm
FS @ 6.41, did you bother to note that the Times link is to an interview transcript?
If so, are you seriously suggesting that the NYTimes deliberately mis-transcribed this interview with a nationally known Senate candidate? really?
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
7:02 pm
I’ve always found that Bosch overcompensates with petty pretentiousness due to a deficiency of intelligence and integrity.
You mean, like, he uses lots of big words when small ones would do?
@@
August 18th, 2010
7:09 pm
stands:
Would you prefer I call him a petty little prick?
I thought about it, but it’s the namecalling thingy. I wanted to avoid that.
————————————————————-
I went on a search to find out what immigrants thought about America
A Place to Call Home: What Immigrants Say Now
About Life in America
My greatest fear is that Democrats will exploit them for votes, thereby rendering them less productive than is their natural/cultural tendency.
Bosch
August 18th, 2010
7:12 pm
josef,
I’ll always take information from professionals who work in a field over those who, well, don’t.
problem solved
August 18th, 2010
7:13 pm
As we type away the last U.S. combat troops are on their way out of Iraq. Thank you Mr. President!
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
7:15 pm
sfb,
The biggest problem with your hypothetical is that it leaves out short term/long term consequences. If the Porkulous bill has the rate at 9.5% versus 10 or 11 % that sounds good in the short term, but I believe the long term consequences will be that unemployment stays higher as a normal condition and that’s much worse than some short term suffering.
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
7:16 pm
Would you prefer I call him a petty little prick?
Why yes. Yes I would.
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
7:18 pm
The biggest problem with your hypothetical is that it leaves out short term/long term consequences.
I guess I could’ve specified a certain rate over a given number of months or years but, point taken.
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
7:19 pm
problem solved
Where, for the love of G-d did you ever get the idea I claim to be a liberal DEMOCRAT? Oy, mate! I say a pox on both their houses!
@@
August 18th, 2010
7:19 pm
stands:
Would you prefer I call him a petty little prick?
Why yes. Yes I would.
I’ll take that to mean we’re in agreement on Bosch, at least.
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
7:26 pm
I’ll take that to mean we’re in agreement on Bosch, at least.
Huh? No. Like most of the folks over at Jay’s I like the guy.
But I can accept that you don’t. So yeah, I’d prefer you call him a “petty little prick” because that’s a lot more honest and forthright than the polysyllabic air you were blowing @ 6.59.
later, all.
@@
August 18th, 2010
7:33 pm
Geez, I was trying to be nice about it.
I wish leftists would make up their minds.
No to name calling!
Yes to name calling!
BADA BING
August 18th, 2010
7:35 pm
In the news……the US military is delivering more aid to Pakistan than the rest of the World combined. We are the nicest racists and anti muslim people in the World. Why don’t all the Pakistan owned convienence stores and Dairy Queens have a free ice cream and slurpee day for the American people?
problem solved
August 18th, 2010
7:36 pm
Josef … Every night on Jay Bookmans blog…..but, I guess now you conviently forget. Figures…I always thought you were a phony!
Southern Comfort
August 18th, 2010
7:39 pm
@@
I read the article from the NY Times that was linked in the article you posted about the teachers. I guess this is what you meant by the union exerting pressure.
Teachers’ unions are strongly urging districts to use the money right away to keep class sizes manageable and to reduce the jobless rolls. “The intent is to help districts avert layoffs now,” said Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers. “Kids don’t have a pause button.”
It appears that they’re more worried about averting additional layoffs as opposed to hiring. I still don’t see this as a payoff to unions, but that’s only my perspective. If that was supposed to be a payoff, I’d be thoroughly po’d if I were a teacher and union member.
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
7:39 pm
Problem
I have NEVER called myself a Democrat! Liberal, yes, Democrat, no…
Bruno
August 18th, 2010
7:40 pm
In case any of you missed the video posted on the Minnesota Republican website, here’s a link to “Republican women vs. Democrat women”:
http://forums.online-sweepstakes.com/showthread.php?p=9444893
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
7:42 pm
If I might interject, I’ve never seen josef refer to himself as a Democrat.
problem solved
August 18th, 2010
7:44 pm
I’m waiting for the bungler GW Bush … to come swooping in 7 years later as our combat troops cross into Kuwait to declare MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
BADA BING
August 18th, 2010
7:45 pm
Any muslims out there that want to thank us, the American people for saving lives in Pakistan? Go ahead, we are waiting.
problem solved
August 18th, 2010
7:47 pm
RW … Josef…
If you are a liberal what else can you be? There are no liberals on the republican side, nor the libertarian…Give me one example of a liberal who is not a democrat!
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
7:49 pm
Give me one example of a liberal who is not a democrat!
josef nix
@@
August 18th, 2010
7:51 pm
In a speech broadcast by Iranian TV Channel One on Aug. 18, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed progress being made in the country. Khamenei said the government and the parliament should solve their problems amicably and officials should speak in a way that would not cause the people to lose trust in them. He said 40 million people voted in the last elections and 25 million voted for the current president, but admitted there were problems.–Stratfor
Sounds familiar, don’t it? Again with the comparisons…first Putin and now Khamenei.
What is the world coming to?
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
7:54 pm
RW
Thanks!
problem
Since when does party affiliation determine one’s socio-political perspective and vice-versa? With all due respect, this “boxing in” lies at the heart of what is the problem today…
Bruno
August 18th, 2010
7:59 pm
“Josef…You claim to be a liberal democrat….Yet you can’t stand….”
problem solved–Even if he were a loyal Democrat, does that mean he should blindly support every member of the party? I think and vote conservative, but I could similarly give you a list of Republicans who are an embarrassment to themselves and the party. For example, I’ve lost a lot of respect for Newt Gingrich for making an ass of himself over the New York Mosque “controversy”.
“Josef … Every night on Jay Bookmans blog”
And if you’re over at the JB blog every night, how come I don’t remember your handle? Are you a name-jumper or do you never post, just watch?
@@
August 18th, 2010
7:59 pm
Give me one example of a liberal who is not a democrat!
A dyed in the wool Jew?
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
8:03 pm
@@
You trying to start something! LOL
@@
August 18th, 2010
8:09 pm
You trying to start something!
Who, ME????
Nevah, josef! Nevah in a million years.
—————————————————————
Good luck with Hugo and FARC, President Santos.
Columbia suspends military deal with U.S..
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
8:39 pm
me and my “problem” have gone upstairs! Thanks for the support down here!
Dusty
August 18th, 2010
9:03 pm
BADA BING
Saudi Arabia has now surpassed the USA in giving aid to Pakistan. That was mentioned on PBS News Hour tonight and that is a very reliable news source.
But I would hope every country in the world would be trying to give as much as they can. There are millions of people stranded with no dry place to go and they have no food, clean water, or housing of any kind. This flood is running down the central line of Pakistan from top to bottoem spreading over the countryside.. The flood is supposed to get much worse. The pictures are truly amazing.in their horror.
I suppose if the Mississippi River spread from top to bottom over two states on each side all the way down, there might be some resemblance to Pakistan.. But Pakistan is not the richest or most stable country in the Middle East and they are responding with as much as they can. But with millions. some standing in water, with NOTHING?
At the moment, I am not worrying about our stimulus or non stimulus. Sometimes I just wonder how we got so lucky.
I can't believe I just read this drivel
August 24th, 2010
6:36 pm
Hey Kyle, remember three months ago when you said the economy wouldn’t enter a double dip? Still believe that? Also, how do you react to this report from the non-partisan CBO?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stimulus-boosted-US-GDP-by-up-rb-290677851.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=1c823a8940654f474e15eb646a83d4a6&ccode=
I almost wish Republicans would take back the House in 2010, so when everything gets worse with the ultimate “do nothing” congress from 2011-2012, the Democrats can wipe the floor with them in 2012 and actually get real stuff done instead of the half baked stuff they were able to pass through the broken Senate the last 2 years. Unfortunately, I’m not sure we can afford two years of nothing.