Jobs forecast not the only ‘dumb’ thing about stimulus (video)
Agreeing with Barney Frank twice in two months? Don’t worry, the Massachusetts Democrat wasn’t right about everything in his interview with Fox Business Network yesterday. But he did finally acknowledge what has been obvious to everyone outside the Democratic Party for some time now (starting at the 3:37 mark):
Here’s a transcript of the relevant part of the exchange:
President Obama, whom I greatly admire … here’s the mistake he made. When the economic recovery bill — we’re supposed to call it the recovery bill, not the stimulus bill; that’s what the focus-group people tell us — with the economic recovery bill, he predicted, or his aides predicted at the time, that if it passed, unemployment would get below 8 percent. That was a dumb thing to do. In the first place, nobody knows. In the second place, what they should have said is, if we pass it, it’ll be better than if we don’t pass it. (emphasis added)
But what about the supposed reliability of the Keynesian models Obama’s economic advisers used then — and still use now to assure us that the money that was spent really did work?
We all know why the Obama team put out that “dumb” counterfactual about what unemployment would do absent the stimulus — because otherwise, too few people were willing to believe that borrowing and spending $787 billion (now bumped up to $862 billion) was such a great idea. Now that the prediction has proven not just politically dumb but substantially wrong, why should we believe the new counterfactuals, based on the same models, being put out to convince us that the stimulus really did work — and that what we really need is more borrow-and-spend stimulus?
Isn’t that a little dumb, too?
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176 comments Add your comment
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
7:15 pm
sfb,
The biggest problem with your hypothetical is that it leaves out short term/long term consequences. If the Porkulous bill has the rate at 9.5% versus 10 or 11 % that sounds good in the short term, but I believe the long term consequences will be that unemployment stays higher as a normal condition and that’s much worse than some short term suffering.
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
7:16 pm
Would you prefer I call him a petty little prick?
Why yes. Yes I would.
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
7:18 pm
The biggest problem with your hypothetical is that it leaves out short term/long term consequences.
I guess I could’ve specified a certain rate over a given number of months or years but, point taken.
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
7:19 pm
problem solved
Where, for the love of G-d did you ever get the idea I claim to be a liberal DEMOCRAT? Oy, mate! I say a pox on both their houses!
@@
August 18th, 2010
7:19 pm
stands:
Would you prefer I call him a petty little prick?
Why yes. Yes I would.
I’ll take that to mean we’re in agreement on Bosch, at least.
stands for decibels
August 18th, 2010
7:26 pm
I’ll take that to mean we’re in agreement on Bosch, at least.
Huh? No. Like most of the folks over at Jay’s I like the guy.
But I can accept that you don’t. So yeah, I’d prefer you call him a “petty little prick” because that’s a lot more honest and forthright than the polysyllabic air you were blowing @ 6.59.
later, all.
@@
August 18th, 2010
7:33 pm
Geez, I was trying to be nice about it.
I wish leftists would make up their minds.
No to name calling!
Yes to name calling!
BADA BING
August 18th, 2010
7:35 pm
In the news……the US military is delivering more aid to Pakistan than the rest of the World combined. We are the nicest racists and anti muslim people in the World. Why don’t all the Pakistan owned convienence stores and Dairy Queens have a free ice cream and slurpee day for the American people?
problem solved
August 18th, 2010
7:36 pm
Josef … Every night on Jay Bookmans blog…..but, I guess now you conviently forget. Figures…I always thought you were a phony!
Southern Comfort
August 18th, 2010
7:39 pm
@@
I read the article from the NY Times that was linked in the article you posted about the teachers. I guess this is what you meant by the union exerting pressure.
Teachers’ unions are strongly urging districts to use the money right away to keep class sizes manageable and to reduce the jobless rolls. “The intent is to help districts avert layoffs now,” said Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers. “Kids don’t have a pause button.”
It appears that they’re more worried about averting additional layoffs as opposed to hiring. I still don’t see this as a payoff to unions, but that’s only my perspective. If that was supposed to be a payoff, I’d be thoroughly po’d if I were a teacher and union member.
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
7:39 pm
Problem
I have NEVER called myself a Democrat! Liberal, yes, Democrat, no…
Bruno
August 18th, 2010
7:40 pm
In case any of you missed the video posted on the Minnesota Republican website, here’s a link to “Republican women vs. Democrat women”:
http://forums.online-sweepstakes.com/showthread.php?p=9444893
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
7:42 pm
If I might interject, I’ve never seen josef refer to himself as a Democrat.
problem solved
August 18th, 2010
7:44 pm
I’m waiting for the bungler GW Bush … to come swooping in 7 years later as our combat troops cross into Kuwait to declare MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
BADA BING
August 18th, 2010
7:45 pm
Any muslims out there that want to thank us, the American people for saving lives in Pakistan? Go ahead, we are waiting.
problem solved
August 18th, 2010
7:47 pm
RW … Josef…
If you are a liberal what else can you be? There are no liberals on the republican side, nor the libertarian…Give me one example of a liberal who is not a democrat!
RW-(the original)
August 18th, 2010
7:49 pm
Give me one example of a liberal who is not a democrat!
josef nix
@@
August 18th, 2010
7:51 pm
In a speech broadcast by Iranian TV Channel One on Aug. 18, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed progress being made in the country. Khamenei said the government and the parliament should solve their problems amicably and officials should speak in a way that would not cause the people to lose trust in them. He said 40 million people voted in the last elections and 25 million voted for the current president, but admitted there were problems.–Stratfor
Sounds familiar, don’t it? Again with the comparisons…first Putin and now Khamenei.
What is the world coming to?
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
7:54 pm
RW
Thanks!
problem
Since when does party affiliation determine one’s socio-political perspective and vice-versa? With all due respect, this “boxing in” lies at the heart of what is the problem today…
Bruno
August 18th, 2010
7:59 pm
“Josef…You claim to be a liberal democrat….Yet you can’t stand….”
problem solved–Even if he were a loyal Democrat, does that mean he should blindly support every member of the party? I think and vote conservative, but I could similarly give you a list of Republicans who are an embarrassment to themselves and the party. For example, I’ve lost a lot of respect for Newt Gingrich for making an ass of himself over the New York Mosque “controversy”.
“Josef … Every night on Jay Bookmans blog”
And if you’re over at the JB blog every night, how come I don’t remember your handle? Are you a name-jumper or do you never post, just watch?
@@
August 18th, 2010
7:59 pm
Give me one example of a liberal who is not a democrat!
A dyed in the wool Jew?
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
8:03 pm
@@
You trying to start something! LOL
@@
August 18th, 2010
8:09 pm
You trying to start something!
Who, ME????
Nevah, josef! Nevah in a million years.
—————————————————————
Good luck with Hugo and FARC, President Santos.
Columbia suspends military deal with U.S..
josef nix
August 18th, 2010
8:39 pm
me and my “problem” have gone upstairs! Thanks for the support down here!
Dusty
August 18th, 2010
9:03 pm
BADA BING
Saudi Arabia has now surpassed the USA in giving aid to Pakistan. That was mentioned on PBS News Hour tonight and that is a very reliable news source.
But I would hope every country in the world would be trying to give as much as they can. There are millions of people stranded with no dry place to go and they have no food, clean water, or housing of any kind. This flood is running down the central line of Pakistan from top to bottoem spreading over the countryside.. The flood is supposed to get much worse. The pictures are truly amazing.in their horror.
I suppose if the Mississippi River spread from top to bottom over two states on each side all the way down, there might be some resemblance to Pakistan.. But Pakistan is not the richest or most stable country in the Middle East and they are responding with as much as they can. But with millions. some standing in water, with NOTHING?
At the moment, I am not worrying about our stimulus or non stimulus. Sometimes I just wonder how we got so lucky.
I can't believe I just read this drivel
August 24th, 2010
6:36 pm
Hey Kyle, remember three months ago when you said the economy wouldn’t enter a double dip? Still believe that? Also, how do you react to this report from the non-partisan CBO?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stimulus-boosted-US-GDP-by-up-rb-290677851.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=1c823a8940654f474e15eb646a83d4a6&ccode=
I almost wish Republicans would take back the House in 2010, so when everything gets worse with the ultimate “do nothing” congress from 2011-2012, the Democrats can wipe the floor with them in 2012 and actually get real stuff done instead of the half baked stuff they were able to pass through the broken Senate the last 2 years. Unfortunately, I’m not sure we can afford two years of nothing.