Another good turnout, good sign for GOP (2nd update)
2ND UPDATE at 11:05 p.m.: It looks like, whoever ends up ahead either way, the vote will be within the 1 percent margin that would allow the loser to request a recount. Which means this contest may not be over yet. How long can one primary last, anyway?
And with that … g’night, y’all.
—
UPDATE at 10:05 p.m.: My questions about today’s turnout appear to have been unfounded. With 84 percent of precincts reporting, more than 550,000 ballots already have been counted in the GOP runoff for governor. It would appear that Republican voters had a similar amount of enthusiasm for the runoff as they had in July’s first round, when they cast 680,000 ballots.
Now, enthusiasm for whom? The early results suggest that Nathan Deal built on his momentum more than Karen Handel did; in a lot of the early-reporting counties, he cut into or reversed Handel’s lead from July. Handel turned the tables on Deal in Catoosa County, which was part of his former North Georgia congressional district. But in places like Baldwin County, Brantley County, Morgan County and Newton County, Deal turned triple-digit losses to Handel into triple-digit wins over her.
He also appeared to cut into her July margins in Cobb County and may have beaten her in Gwinnett. It looks like the election may hinge on how many more votes are counted in Fulton. I may or may not stay up late enough to find out …
The original post is below.
—
It will be interesting to see the turnout figures for today’s GOP gubernatorial primary runoff. My guess is that the kind of campaigns that Karen Handel and Nathan Deal waged against one another have depressed Republican voters’ interest rather than piqued it.
And I wonder what kind of problem that will present for the party’s eventual nominee against Roy Barnes.
Both Handel and Deal had forward momentum after the July 20 primary, since both candidates had surpassed longtime front-runner John Oxendine and held off a late charge from Eric Johnson. After fighting for months with the expectation that only one of them could make a runoff (presumably against Oxendine), suddenly both Handel and Deal had survived the first round.
But rather than challenging one another to new heights, each candidate has tried to hold one another down, like two drowning swimmers gasping for air. There are political consultants who will tell you that the first candidate to go negative wins a runoff, and that may be true in most years. But with the electorate in a foul mood at all kinds of politicians, I have my doubts about how good a strategy it was this year.
We’ll get an idea of that answer tonight. A falloff in turnout is to be expected, but how much?
About 14 percent of active registered voters cast GOP ballots last month. If that percentage falls too far into the single digits, I’d say Republicans ought to start worrying about what their bickering candidates have done to their party.
***Consider this an election-night open thread.
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104 comments Add your comment
Belinda
August 10th, 2010
6:07 pm
You might be right, Kyle.
Legend of Len Barker
August 10th, 2010
6:19 pm
I’m rooting for Handel because she has a better chance of splitting the party.
I know it’s virtually impossible, but a tie would entertain me greatly.
TGT
August 10th, 2010
6:32 pm
I don’t think there is much of a concern here. The race has never seemed particularly nasty, and Handel did express the fact that she expects the party to unite behind whomever is the winner. The Dems especially have nothing to get very excited about come Nov., and given that about 280,000 more votes were cast in the Rep. primary for GA’s Gov. than in the Dem. one, I doubt either Rep. candidate will have much of a difficult time with the retread Barnes.
I’m calling it for Deal–both tonight and Nov.
CJ
August 10th, 2010
6:55 pm
With the knowledge that most conservatives don’t actually care about ethics, as they would have us believe, I had predicted a Deal runoff victory in a previous thread.
That said, Deal’s victory would likely give Barnes a leg up in the general. I’m not predicting a Barnes victory if Deal wins tonight (or vice versa), but I suspect that Roy prefers not to run against Handel.
Kyle Wingfield
August 10th, 2010
7:07 pm
And the first numbers are in…from Troup County…Handel 278, Deal 247. That’s 53% to 47% in Handel’s favor. Anyone think it’ll end up like that?
DEWSTARPATH
August 10th, 2010
7:12 pm
- I think Kyle and Belinda are right. The turnout for both
the initial primary and today’s runoff was sparse for both
parties. I was the only voter in the polling place when I
went in – which probably was experienced by many other
voters across the metro area.
jconservative
August 10th, 2010
8:03 pm
I voted at 8:00 am & was the only voter in the place.
This is a nice piece of writing Kyle. One of your best. Short and really to the point.
I disagree with some of my fellow bloggers – I believe Barnes is a formidable candidate. He will get a lot of traditional Republican voters. And if Handel is the nominee, Barnes gets my vote.
David S
August 10th, 2010
8:10 pm
The candidate selection is what is hurting the GOP. Any chance a principled conservative might run under this party banner? Maybe one who understands Austrian economics, supports a strong defense and recognizes that what we now have is just an offense, understands that there is nothing the government does that the private sector can do better and cheaper, and will actually stick to their principles once elected?
I mean Ron Paul can’t clone himself and run for every office in the nation, but there must be a few republicans with principles that the party leadership might allow to get on the ballot.
David S
August 10th, 2010
8:12 pm
Turnout would be higher for every election if None of the Above appeared under every race and if NOTA won, all other candidates would be exempt from any future ballot for that race that election cycle. Just think, we might actually get an elected official we can stand behind for a change.
NOTA for everything!
Aquagirl
August 10th, 2010
8:14 pm
Kyle @ 7:07, nah. I think Deal will eventually take it. Late momentum, more experience running campaigns, and the endorsement from Huckabee might give him the edge. Besides, I think Georgia Republicans were skeered to death by that commercial he ran with Karen Handel’s field of Evil Gay Wheat.
TGT
August 10th, 2010
8:16 pm
The AJC is lagging. The Gainesville Times is reporting 31% of precincts, with Deal up 52%-48%.
Here: http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/
@@
August 10th, 2010
8:17 pm
I’ve only seen to TeeWee ads. One of Deal’s, one of Handel’s.
Deal’s was geared towards giving Handel a wedgie. Handel’s addressed Deal’s Washington connections.
I preferred Handel’s.
Cutty
August 10th, 2010
8:24 pm
Neither candidate really discussed any of the pertinent issues facing the state. Only who hates the gays and illegals the most, imo. I’ve searched the Library of Congress, and one of the few, sparse pieces of legislation Deal has sponsored dealt with the World Open Gold Panning Championships in Dahlonega. Seriously! He didn’t do anything in Congress, and you can only expect the same performance as governor. Say what you want about Barnes, but this state was prosperous when he was the Chief Executive.
Kyle Wingfield
August 10th, 2010
8:24 pm
The first counties to report 100 percent of their precincts by now are, almost by definition, some of the state’s smallest. But if they are indicative of statewide interest — and yes, that’s a big “if,” but what else are we going to talk about at this point in the evening? — then turnout might prove to be pretty good.
Nine counties are 100 percent reported so far. Collectively, they had about 77 percent as many votes as they did on July 20. That would translate to roughly 11 percent turnout, which would be pretty good given that there was only 14 percent turnout in the first round.
Here are the counties listed at 100 percent as of now on the Secretary of State’s website:
Atkinson: 253 votes (323 in July)
Ben Hill: 550 votes (791 in July)
Candler: 624 (644)
Clay: 46 (184)
Glascock: 184 (219)
Peach: 887 (1,133)
Pulaski: 463 (613)
Quitman: 64 (79)
Taliaferro: 10 (26)
TOTAL: 3,081 (4,012)
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
8:31 pm
“And I wonder what kind of problem that will present for the party’s eventual nominee against Roy Barnes.”
Not sure if you’re new to GA or not but the state of GA ain’t gone vote for no democrat.
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
8:32 pm
@@
Not sure if you’ve been over to Bookman’s blog lately but MY GAWD, those people seriously need to get a life!!!!!!!!!!
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
8:33 pm
“If that percentage falls too far into the single digits, I’d say Republicans ought to start worrying about what their bickering candidates have done to their party.”
Kyle, are you drunk? Seriously, the state of GA is not going to put a has been democrat back in the governors mansion.
Kyle Wingfield
August 10th, 2010
8:35 pm
Three more counties in at 100 percent, and I have to ask whether this will be a trend tonight: By my count, Deal has won seven counties in which he trailed Handel in the July vote.
Handel has won four counties, which she also won in July. Deal has held one county that he won in July.
It’s verrrrrry early…but I’m just sayin’…
Kyle Wingfield
August 10th, 2010
8:36 pm
Grand Forks: If the GOP takes that attitude, it might be in trouble.
Matti
August 10th, 2010
8:38 pm
I was probably one of five people (if that) in my precinct to ask for a Dem ballot, though the after-work crowd was hopping on this Handel-Deal business. Heh…. I kept waiting for somebody to say something to me, so I could explain that I only need to vote for three more black candidates and I get a free toaster.
Jim
August 10th, 2010
8:42 pm
Some ethical conservatives. The ex mayors of Atlanta and Detroit. Charlie Rangal and Maxine Waters. Real ethical.
@@
August 10th, 2010
8:49 pm
Grand:
If you’re into talking about food and pets, jay’s, is the place to be.
jay’s leftists linger in anticipation of his (jay’s) return from vacation? jay’s vacation is, no doubt, paid.
It’s the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen.
I must admit, the coffee is weaker during the early morning klatch.
@@
August 10th, 2010
9:02 pm
Heavens, Kyle! I just read your “Dump Biden to Save Obama” thread.
I happen to like Joe. His many gaffes reveal the truth, although unintentionally. I like Hillary as Secretary of State.
Biden as Secretary of State!!??!! That would be an accident looking for a place to happen.
An Obama/Clinton ticket would send one of two messages. 1) Women are expected to assume a subservient role, and 2) Obama needs a Mama.
wallbanger
August 10th, 2010
9:03 pm
I was the only voter when I was there too. I am so sick of conservatives complaining and then sitting on their butts at election time. For heaven’s sake, get out there and vote while you still can vote. Things have been changing fast. I am not so sure you will be able to vote in the future, or that your vote will count against all the entitlement voters, the academics, the unions, the legalized illegals, and all the other government/taxpayer leeches.
jt
August 10th, 2010
9:11 pm
Handel=Deal=Barnes=Higher Taxes+Bigger Government.(although Handel is slightly better).
Read it and weep.
John Monds in November.
Legend of Len Barker
August 10th, 2010
9:13 pm
I find this to be much quicker:
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2010_0810/0020001.htm
Several of the counties at 99% are actually 100%. I don’t know why they go ahead and bump it up.
Handel’s less than a percentage point short of Deal, but she’s whooping his hiney in Fulton, which has only reported 17% at the present.
Kyle Wingfield
August 10th, 2010
9:19 pm
Legend: That’s where I’m getting my figures. And I realize 99 percent is close, but I figure 100 percent is safer since we’re talking about thin margins in some places.
Latest factoid: 32 counties are 100 percent reported, and Deal’s turnaround in those counties is pretty remarkable: He trailed Handel in them by a collective 6,941 votes in July but has narrowed it to just 156 votes today — a 6,785-vote turnaround.
Handel’s margins in metro Atlanta will probably decide it, but it definitely looks like Deal picked up a lot of Chapman, Johnson and Oxendine supporters downstate.
If he picks up many of them in metro Atlanta, he might win this thing.
Legend of Len Barker
August 10th, 2010
9:21 pm
Something doesn’t look right with Meriwether County.
Kyle Wingfield
August 10th, 2010
9:23 pm
Btw, on the ostensible topic tonight — turnover — it looks like the number may be pretty high. Half a million votes with 75 percent of the precincts counted…may top 600,000 again, which would be about 12 percent of active registered voters. Pretty good considering July’s turnout.
Kyle Wingfield
August 10th, 2010
9:24 pm
Make that “turnout.”
martin
August 10th, 2010
9:33 pm
I don’t think it’ll hurt in November. Handel has been running negative campaigns since she’s started. I think that will help Deal, that being said, even if he doesn’t win, I’m still not voting for Roy Barnes. I have a Democrat friend who is saying the same thing, he refuses to vote for King Roy.
Ralph
August 10th, 2010
9:33 pm
A dead heat to determine who is the lesser of lessers.
Ralph
August 10th, 2010
9:34 pm
How long with the runoff recount take?
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
9:36 pm
“If the GOP takes that attitude, it might be in trouble.”
What attitude?????? I don’t, for one second, believe that the residents in this state will vote for a democrat based on Obama’s performance. November IS a referendum on Obama and the democrats. People in this state HATE democrats.
Kamchak
August 10th, 2010
9:38 pm
I don’t, for one second, believe that the residents in this state will vote for a democrat…
True dat.
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
9:38 pm
“Pretty good considering July’s turnout.”
Kyle, like I said, the dems ain’t gonna win GA. If by chance, and I mean a small one, Barnes wins, he’s gonna have his a hard time being a democrat since he ran on a conservative platform.
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
9:40 pm
“I’m still not voting for Roy Barnes.”
Your entire post is pointless.
Matti
August 10th, 2010
9:42 pm
People in this state HATE democrats.
Not everyone, Mr. Forked. Only the special kind of Christians who are outraged at the very idea that the children of unemployed parents might receive timely medical care instead of suffering from something totally treatable, or the notion that public schools might actually have the recources to educate children whose parents fell short in that area, or that the state might actually pay people to inspect factories to prevent workplace explosions or product contamination that result in numerous fatalities, the closing of a business, and throwing an entire town out of work.
The rest are either godless, gay-loving heathens, or the “other” kind of Christians. *gasp!* Oh, heavens, I’m sorry I even brought them up.
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
9:42 pm
I honestly don’t understand how the state of GA can’t get good governors elected. Indiana has Daniels, ND has Hoevan, LA has Jindal and NJ has Cristie. GA is a very strange state. I’ve been to every southern state but GA has got to be the strangest when it comes to governors. I’m not sure if it’s because GA is just a dumb state or what.
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
9:45 pm
Fatti
Ever been to Illinois, Michigan or California? If you had, you’d know that those heavily democrap states are full of people like you who’ve helped bankrupt their governments. It’s people like you who’ve repeatedly screamed “WHAT ABOUT THE CHILDREN” all while ignoring spending sprees and retardation among your own party.
Vince
August 10th, 2010
9:47 pm
I didn’t bother to vote. The Republicans could have selected Elmer Fudd and I would vote for him. Once the Democrats chose Barnes….. this educator’s vote was sealed.
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
9:48 pm
@@
Look at Kookman’s current “gone fishin” post. Not sure what it’s up to now but when I last checked it was around 12 pages long and full of retarded comments from people who obviously don’t have lives or a job. The same people are over there morning till nightfall arguing and commenting about what they’re watching on tv. Kookman must be real proud of his cult following dingbats.
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
9:48 pm
“I didn’t bother to vote.’
Amen to that.
Kamchak
August 10th, 2010
9:48 pm
I’m not sure if it’s because GA is just a dumb state or what.
Delta is ready when you are.
Or Аэрофлот.
B. Thenet
August 10th, 2010
9:49 pm
Grand Forks, based on your comments you shouldn’t be calling anyone dumb.
Georgia has already elected Roy Barnes once, and Nathan Deal is a former Democrat himself. Heck, half the State Legislature switched from D to R over the past couple of decades.
Roy Barnes is going to walk into this race with a better organization, likely more $$$, and a GOP that has been fractured by a very hard fought primary that will leave some sore feelings within the Party.
At this point, you would have to call Roy the favorite to win in November.
OedipusTax
August 10th, 2010
9:50 pm
I wasn’t impressed at all with the negative campaigning of either Deal or Handel. I voted for Handel simply because Deal was on watch while Republicans allowed discretionary spending to mushroom before the Democrats won control of Congress in 2006. Now, however, Republican overspending is positively dwarfed by the reckless and irresponsible spending of Democrats. Congress appropriates, not the President, and no President can spend a dime without Congress. They have disgraced our country. I say throw them all out. We’d be better off picking 535 people randomly out of the phone book.
Apples and Oranges
August 10th, 2010
9:51 pm
What attitude are you talking about with the GOP?? Low turnout for a runoff doesn’t spell any lack of GOP presence, involvement, or concern for the November elections. Not sure what you mean Kyle. However, I’ll say this, whoever runs against Barnes will find MUCH GOP support. On a different note I’m sick of Negative campaigns. For State Senate I voted for Beach because of the negative campaign Albers ran.
VOL
August 10th, 2010
9:51 pm
Kyle do you have any opinions yet on Nov strat for the Pubs? Do you think they might be tempted to remind certain voters of Barnes and the flag? Realistically it would have to be a total disaster for the Pubs to lose this governor’s race wouldn’t it? I saw Stu and Charlie on MSNBC this morning and they had the same opinion with Stu stating this governor’s seat was the race he was least interested this Fall.
Redneck Convert (R---and proud of it)
August 10th, 2010
9:51 pm
Well, Handel better be setting on about 9,000 votes. She’s about that far behind and 90% of the votes are in.
Grand Forks
August 10th, 2010
9:52 pm
“based on your comments you shouldn’t be calling anyone dumb.”
Oh reaaaaaaaaaaaaally???????
“At this point, you would have to call Roy the favorite to win in November.”
You must be big in fantasy land, ma’am.