Obama’s $8.6 trillion in deficits: Only a low-ball estimate

Anyone trying to claim a fiscal equivalence between the Bush era and the Obama era needs to review the latest report from the Congressional Budget Office.

In its recent budget report, the White House forecast budget deficits totaling $8.6 trillion over the next decade. To keep that in perspective, the total public debt held by the end of 2009 — that is, by the end of George W. Bush’s last budget — was $7.5 trillion.

projected_deficit

Graph originally posted at gregmankiw.blogspot.com

CBO, however, says even that mind-boggling projection is too low. In fact, the nonpartisan budget crunchers estimate, the cumulative deficit from 2010-2020 will be $9.8 trillion. That’s a difference of $1.2 trillion, as illustrated to the left (the graph comes from Greg Mankiw).

How much is $1.2 trillion? It’s roughly the same as the combined deficits of Bush’s first four years in office. And remember, we’re only talking about the “extra” amount of total deficits in the decade to come.

But as bad as a $1.2 trillion underestimate is, here are the numbers to really worry about:

  • $9.8 trillion: The cumulative budget deficits from 2010-2020 given Obama’s plans, according to CBO. In other words, we will average a $1 trillion deficit over the next 10 years, after never breaching $1 trillion a single time before Bush’s final budget.
  • $3.8 trillion: The additional budget deficits from 2010-2020 given Obama’s plans, compared to just leaving the budget on auto-pilot, according to CBO.
  • 90 percent: The public debt as a share of the total economy by 2020 given Obama’s plans, according to CBO. The current figure is 53 percent.
  • 80 percent: The amount by which the White House has overestimated next year’s economic growth, according to CBO (4.3 percent GDP growth in 2011 forecast by White House, versus 2.4 percent per CBO). Even if the White House is correct and the economy is about to come roaring back, it is foolish to count on such spectacular growth. (Recall what I’ve said before about rosy scenarios.)
  • 24.1 percent: The average proportion of GDP that the federal government will spend from 2010-2020 given Obama’s plans, according to CBO. The 40-year historical average is 20.7 percent. So, we are talking about a federal government in 2020 that is one-sixth larger than it historically has been.

And all of this assumes that there will be no national emergencies over the next 10 years: No terrorist attacks or natural disasters that require extra spending. And it assumes that we will have a decade of uninterrupted economic growth; history suggests that’s unlikely.

We are talking about an expansion of government, the deficit and debt that is an order of magnitude greater than anything we’ve seen before. If you’re one of those people asking why fiscal conservatives are suddenly concerned about the deficit now, and weren’t holding tea parties back when Bush was still in office, this is why.

248 comments Add your comment

HDB

March 8th, 2010
5:23 pm

LA….I did NOT say Carter was a great President; Carter was an average President. The nation didn’t suffer as greatly as it did under Bush 43…..and he attempted to use negotiation prior to the failed mission in Iran. The ecomony wasn’t as bad as people continue to play it as being…for credit was much easier to obtain than it is now!! Carter’s deficits were FLAT for his four years in office — WITH a Democratic Congress…averaging $46B.

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:23 pm

“NAMB-LA, you have become tedious. My unpaid overtime is done and I am outta here.”

BINGO!!!!

emo is Giant Generation!

HDB

March 8th, 2010
5:24 pm

…and BTW, I served in the UNITED STATES NAVY……..
Please acknowledge what veterans have done in the defense of this nation rather than to disparage their service!!

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:27 pm

“The nation didn’t suffer as greatly as it did under Bush 43″

That MUST be why Carter lost in a landslide! Yep, Carter was awesome!!!!

“The ecomony wasn’t as bad as people continue to play it as being…for credit was much easier to obtain than it is now!!”

Yes it was. It was terrible. Inflation was high, gas was $4/gallon. He was a MORON.

Credit was easier to obtain???????????? Geez dude, of course it was. There weren’t as many credit card companies around and they didn’t charge what they charge now. Plus, people paid with cash more than they do now.

You sure you’re smart?

“WITH a Democratic Congress…averaging $46B.’

And he lost it all in 1980.

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:27 pm

“Please acknowledge what veterans have done in the defense of this nation rather than to disparage their service!!”

I have and always do. You should do the same.

HDB

March 8th, 2010
5:28 pm

Evloutin is more than a theory…..the VERB means to change…to make different and possibly BETTER!! That’s what I am……

I have posted facts….you just deny that my facts differ from yours….and my reaction to what you feel were positives, in my life, were negatives….and vice-versa!!

I can spell…but my typing needs a bit more work…….and I do admit to my foibles, sir!!

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:29 pm

“My unpaid overtime is done and I am outta here.’

I guess that means your shift is over at McDonalds.

HDB

March 8th, 2010
5:29 pm

LA…I do..but you failed to acknowledge MY service!! Claiming that I served in OLD Navy disparages what I’ve sacrificed in the defense of this nation…….

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:30 pm

“Evloutin is more than a theory…..the VERB means to change…to make different and possibly BETTER!! That’s what I am……”

And still…..you can’t spell the word you believe in. LOL

“I have posted facts’

No, you’ve posted your own opinions.

“I can spell”

That MUST explain why you’ve misspelled several words today.

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:31 pm

“but you failed to acknowledge MY service!! ”

1: You’re a faceless blogger who claims to be a serviceman.
2: You claim to be an educated man yet you misspell common words.

Bottom line: I don’t believe you.

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:32 pm

“Claiming that I served in OLD Navy disparages what I’ve sacrificed in the defense of this nation…….”

You’re a blogger, HDB. For all I know, you’re some hillbilly from south Georgia who sits in his mom’s trailer all day.

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:34 pm

“Listen, he’s a nice person, he’s very articulate,” this is what’s going to be used against him, “but he couldn’t sell watermelons to –”

-Dan Rather on Chris Matthews show.

I guess Dan Rather is a racist.

HDB

March 8th, 2010
5:35 pm

Carter lost due to the hostage crisis in Iran….not the economy. Gasoline was NOT $4.00/gallon!! Under the Carter Administration, gasoline was sold by the LITER…and the average cost was $.365/liter…which converts to almost $1.30/gallon. Inflation was high, but that was due to the Fed’s devaluing the dollar prior to 1977. Carter inherited Nixon’s malaise and Ford’s stewardship!! There were just as many credit card companies then as now….what has happened is that the BANKS have consolidated…and rather than serving their regional concerns, they became NATIONAL in scope. Prior to 1981, the main international bank were Citibank and Chase Manhattan; now look at the scope of the banks………

Carter was a good man in a storm….and the nation doesn’t want good men in the White House…..

Jefferson

March 8th, 2010
5:37 pm

Duckhead, sic.

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:39 pm

“Carter lost due to the hostage crisis in Iran….not the economy.”

WRONG!!!!!!

“Gasoline was NOT $4.00/gallon!!”

Right and next you’ll tell me that Jimmy Carter didn’t propose gas rationing.

“Carter inherited Nixon’s malaise and Ford’s stewardship!! ”

HA!!!!! Blame blame blame!!!!!!

“There were just as many credit card companies then as now”

No there were not.

“Carter was a good man in a storm”

Carter was a buffoon who hates Jews.

“and the nation doesn’t want good men in the White House…..”

????????????????????

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:40 pm

Jefferson

Keep the insults coming pal! I can’t wait for you to slip up and call me a curse word!

HDB

March 8th, 2010
5:40 pm

LA….I’m no more than I am; it’s useless to lie about my life, for I’ve lived it!!

I HAVE posted facts…but if you decide not to believe another perspective, that’s your loss!! Everyone…least of all, ME…is not perfect….and I don’t claim to be….so if you are looking for perfection…..you need to look elsewhere!!

LA…I know that you are so myopic that you won’t look at an opposing view to see where common ground is; you would vote AGAINST something so that you can maintain the status quo….and deny someone else the similar opportunity. To me, that’s more than selfish..that’s SAD…and unAmerican!!

Have a good day; I ALWAYS DO!!

LA

March 8th, 2010
5:45 pm

“I HAVE posted facts”

No, you’ve posted your opinion. You’ve yet to SHOW any proof of any of your made up bs.

“I know that you are so myopic that you won’t look at an opposing view to see where common ground is”

And I know that you are a lying little person who makes up bs to promote his dependence on welfare.

“you would vote AGAINST something so that you can maintain the status quo”

As would you.

“and deny someone else the similar opportunity.”

That makes no sense.

“To me, that’s more than selfish..that’s SAD…and unAmerican!!”

This coming from someone who wants to take money away from other people.

“Have a good day; I ALWAYS DO!!”

I’m sure you do. You sit and waste taxpayer money.

HDB

March 8th, 2010
6:41 pm

Wow…a Republican ADMITS that his party uses fear tactics to win elections…..how NOVEL!!

McConnell doesn’t like GOP pitch based on fear

WASHINGTON — The Senate’s top Republican says he didn’t like a recent GOP appeal to party donors that was based on stoking fear and negative feelings toward President Barack Obama and other Democrats.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky says he doesn’t understand why anyone thought such an appeal would help the GOP.

The pitch last month to Republican fundraisers included a direct call to exploit “extreme negative feelings” toward Democrats. In the presentation, Obama was depicted as “The Joker” and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as Cruella De Vil.

McConnell tells ABC’s “This Week” that it’s up to the Republican National Committee to hold someone responsible for the controversial appeal. He says, “I don’t like it and I don’t know anybody who does.”

DNC's a sham

March 8th, 2010
6:50 pm

HDB, so what? Democrats do the exact same thing.

Giant Generation

March 8th, 2010
6:57 pm

A lynch mob is forming outside the ajc, demanding to know where LA lives…hang him high boys, hand him high…

Giant Generation

March 8th, 2010
7:05 pm

OH, LA’s mommy said “beddy bye baby doll” and LA has been put down for the night, with his/her/its nite light on to keep the boogy man away! I picture Cartman’s mom.

LA

March 8th, 2010
7:08 pm

“A lynch mob is forming outside the ajc, demanding to know where LA lives…hang him high boys, hand him high…”

So, Robert Byrd and other democrats are outside wanting to hang people?

LA

March 8th, 2010
7:08 pm

OH, Giant Generation mommy said “beddy bye baby doll” and Giant Generation has been put down for the night, with his/her/its nite light on to keep the boogy man away! I picture Cartman’s mom.

LA

March 8th, 2010
7:10 pm

“A lynch mob is forming outside the ajc, demanding to know where LA lives…hang him high boys, hand him high…”

Giant Generation has the grammar skills of a special ed kid in the 2nd grade.

LA

March 8th, 2010
7:11 pm

I bet Obama will remain silent on this. He hates Africa and pretends to be a Christian.

Appeals for calm after Nigerian sectarian slaughter

JOS, Nigeria (AFP) – UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Washington led calls for restraint on Monday after the slaughter of more than 500 Christians in Nigeria, as survivors told how the killers chopped down their victims.

Funerals took place for victims of the three-hour orgy of violence on Sunday in three Christian villages close to the northern city of Jos, blamed on members of the mainly Muslim Fulani ethnic group.

While troops were deployed to the villages to prevent new attacks, security forces detained 95 suspects but faced bitter criticism over how the killers were able to go on the rampage at a time when a curfew was meant to be in force.

Media reported that Muslim residents of the villages in Plateau state had been warned by phone text message, two days prior to the attack, so they could make good their escape before the exit points were sealed off.

Survivors said the attackers were able to separate the Fulanis from members of the rival Berom group by chanting ‘nagge’, the Fulani word for cattle. Those who failed to respond in the same language were hacked to death.

One local paper said the gangs shouted Allah Akhbar (God is Great) before breaking into homes and setting them alight in the early hours of Sunday. Churches were among the buildings that were burned down.

The Vatican led a wave of outrage with spokesman Federico Lombardi expressing the Roman Catholic Church’s “sadness” at the “horrible acts of violence”.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100308/wl_afp/nigeriaunrest

Giant Generation

March 8th, 2010
7:17 pm

LA just committed suicide…Good…The world is a better place…

Giant Generation

March 8th, 2010
7:18 pm

People are dancing on their roofs over the death of LA…..

Giant Generation's brother who happens to be her husband

March 8th, 2010
7:30 pm

Giant Generation just committed suicide…Good…The world is a better place…

Giant Generation's brother who happens to be her husband

March 8th, 2010
7:31 pm

People are dancing on their roofs over the death of Giant Generation …..

HDB

March 8th, 2010
7:41 pm

@ DNC…but the problem is that Republicans make anyone that’s NOT like them the enemy…..look at how Karl Rove did to John McCain in 2000; look at what the GOP did in ‘88 with Willie Horton…….

DNC's a sham

March 8th, 2010
7:57 pm

@ HDB, you wrote: but the problem is that Republicans make anyone that’s NOT like them the enemy…..look at how Karl Rove did to John McCain in 2000; look at what the GOP did in ‘88 with Willie Horton…….

Ok, and I will say: Look at the blue dogs and how Rahm Emanuel attacked Masa in the shower. Look at what liberal democrats did to Geraldine Feraro.

I think it’s interesting that you seem to only point the finger at Republicans when the Democrats do the exact same thing.

atlshirt.com

March 8th, 2010
7:59 pm

retiredds

March 8th, 2010
2:28 pm

had government not stepped in… our recession would have lasted only 18 months like all previous recessions, and we would have recovered by now… check out the difference between the 1920 recession, and the 1929 recession.. in 1920 no government intervention and was over in 18 months, 1929, we had government intervention and took over a decade to recover.. no government involvement and recessions are over in 18 months period!!

samuel

March 8th, 2010
8:00 pm

Kyle, this debt train started rolling with Ronald Reagan and grew with the 2 Bushes. National debt and budget deficits were also projected to rise under Bill Clinton, but thanks to PAYGO (passed by Democratic majorities in Congress in 1990), we had budget surpluses and a reduction of the national debt as a % of GDP. In 2000, the CBO projected budget surpluses in the trillions leading up to 2010, but Bush 43 and the Republicans in Congress frittered that away. So the CBO isn’t always right. The supply-side economic policies practiced by the last 3 Republican presidents have exploded budget deficits and national debt. As long as Obama dosen’t follow the same policies, things should be under control.

HDB

March 8th, 2010
8:04 pm

@ DNC….my point is that when the Democrats do it, more often than not, they throw themselves under the bus…..when the GOP does it, they throw ANYBODY under the bus!! You won’t hear me say that neither side doesn’t do it…of course they do…but the GOP is a bit more egrigious with it!!!

atlshirt.com

March 8th, 2010
8:06 pm

HDB`

March 8th, 2010
3:09 pm

ITs better that there is outrage now, than later… if we were to remain complacent, then the government would keep stripping us our rights… take a gander at the patriot act ??

atlshirt.com

March 8th, 2010
8:07 pm

emo

March 8th, 2010
3:50 pm

Our actual unemployment rate is a little over 17% but I would not expect you to understand that at all!!

HDB

March 8th, 2010
8:08 pm

…and Kyle, didn’t Obama attempt to go BACK to PAYGO….but the GOP maintained their “NO” stance and didn’t go along with him???

DNC's a sham

March 8th, 2010
8:09 pm

@ HDB, you wrote: but the GOP is a bit more egrigious with it!!!

Not sure what egirgious means. Maybe you misspelled it or something. Anyway, no, the Democrats do it all the time. Nancy and Harry have thrown many democrats under the bus. Obama himself threw Gov. Patterson(NY) under the bus a few months ago. Your point is really hypocritical to say the least.

atlshirt.com

March 8th, 2010
8:10 pm

HDB`

March 8th, 2010
3:44 pm

You served in the Navy right ?? You can get VA loans at a very low rate, not to mention the G.I. Bill can help you get a better education.. wealth is attained by hard work, it is never given to someone… unless you were born rich, then you could inherit it!

DNC's a sham

March 8th, 2010
8:11 pm

@ HDB

“…and Kyle, didn’t Obama attempt to go BACK to PAYGO….but the GOP maintained their “NO” stance and didn’t go along with him???”

Yes, because that “paygo idea” is ridiculous. Obama doesn’t have a clue as to what he’s doing and it’s making the American people angry. It’s exactly why Democrats will lose this November.

DNC's a sham

March 8th, 2010
8:12 pm

atlshirt.com

HDB wrote that rich people should have their money taken from them. This is exactly why American’s hate socialism. I don’t really think HDB served in the military because NO Navy Vet would ever talk about taking other people’s money away from them.

HDB

March 8th, 2010
8:12 pm

ATLShirt….We all knew that the Patriot Act was a GOP grab on our civil liberties….and many people fell for it! Those who protested against it were called traitors and unAmerican…..but the volume was not nearly as cacaphonous as it is now!! No tea-baqquer, no Joker-protests….NOTHING!! IMHO, the hypocracy of the right shows when the real power grab occurs by one of their own and nothing is said…but when they are NOT in power….they scream and bitch like they were facing the Texas Chain Saw Murderer….and ESPECIALLY since Obama got in!!!

HDB

March 8th, 2010
8:17 pm

Whoa….what I SAID was that in times of WAR, the wealthy should sacrifice just as much as those without wealth!! I was told that tax cuts during war time was good for the nation…..I disagreed!! I asked WHEN did the nation not ask its people to sacrifice during war with a tax increase! It was done in the Revolutionary War, 1812, WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam…..not until 2002 was the nation NOT asked to sacrifice during war time…and only the wealthy prospered!!

AS a Navy Vet, I wish to see our military properly funded….a tax cut during war time doesn’t accomplish that means!! THAT WAS MY ARGUMENT!!!

I DID use my GI Bill…..and I got an education……

HDB

March 8th, 2010
8:19 pm

DNC…I admitted that Democrats constantly throw themselves under the bus…but the GOP throws EVERYBODY under the bus!!! THAT was also my point!!

atlshirt.com

March 8th, 2010
8:19 pm

samuel

March 8th, 2010
8:00 pm

Clinton robbed social security to pay the surplus…

DNC's a sham

March 8th, 2010
8:21 pm

HDB wrote: but the GOP throws EVERYBODY under the bus!!! THAT was also my point!!

Not like the Democrats. I don’t know of ANY Republican who went into a shower naked and yelled at a fellow Republican.

“Rahm Emanuel is son of the devil’s spawn, Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY) said. “He is an individual who would sell his mother to get a vote. He would strap his children to the front end of a steam locomotive.”

Rep. Massa describes a confrontation with Emanuel in a shower: “I am showering, naked as a jaybird, and here comes Rahm Emanuel, not even with a towel wrapped around his tush, poking his finger in my chest, yelling at me.”

- Massa

HDB

March 8th, 2010
8:22 pm

To further extend my point, I said that it is SELFISH for those of wealth NOT to sacrifice during war time by getting a tax cut when the sons and daughters of the poor and middle class are sacrificed with their LIVES!! I also said that EVERYONE desires to be wealthy….but during war time, the NATION must sacrifice….THAT MEANS EVERYONE…INCLUDING THOSE WITH WEALTH!!!

atlshirt.com

March 8th, 2010
8:23 pm

HDB

March 8th, 2010
8:12 pm

you hit the nail on the head with this statement, but, try putting the shoe on the other foot ?? but instead, think of our government as a human body, the left foot equals the democrats, and the right foot equals the republicans… and the media is the mouth… now what do you think about our government ???

LA

March 8th, 2010
8:23 pm

“We all knew that the Patriot Act was a GOP grab on our civil liberties….and many people fell for it!’

Please tell us all how the PA took away anyone’s liberty. Come on socialist, tell us!

“IMHO, the hypocracy of the right shows when the real power grab occurs by one of their own and nothing is said…but when they are NOT in power….they scream and bitch like they were facing the Texas Chain Saw Murderer….and ESPECIALLY since Obama got in!!!”

Again, you can’t spell simple words. Obama is a one term president who can’t lead. He’s his own undoing. The GOP can simply sit back and watch the DNC implode.