Obama’s $8.6 trillion in deficits: Only a low-ball estimate
Anyone trying to claim a fiscal equivalence between the Bush era and the Obama era needs to review the latest report from the Congressional Budget Office.
In its recent budget report, the White House forecast budget deficits totaling $8.6 trillion over the next decade. To keep that in perspective, the total public debt held by the end of 2009 — that is, by the end of George W. Bush’s last budget — was $7.5 trillion.
Graph originally posted at gregmankiw.blogspot.com
CBO, however, says even that mind-boggling projection is too low. In fact, the nonpartisan budget crunchers estimate, the cumulative deficit from 2010-2020 will be $9.8 trillion. That’s a difference of $1.2 trillion, as illustrated to the left (the graph comes from Greg Mankiw).
How much is $1.2 trillion? It’s roughly the same as the combined deficits of Bush’s first four years in office. And remember, we’re only talking about the “extra” amount of total deficits in the decade to come.
But as bad as a $1.2 trillion underestimate is, here are the numbers to really worry about:
- $9.8 trillion: The cumulative budget deficits from 2010-2020 given Obama’s plans, according to CBO. In other words, we will average a $1 trillion deficit over the next 10 years, after never breaching $1 trillion a single time before Bush’s final budget.
- $3.8 trillion: The additional budget deficits from 2010-2020 given Obama’s plans, compared to just leaving the budget on auto-pilot, according to CBO.
- 90 percent: The public debt as a share of the total economy by 2020 given Obama’s plans, according to CBO. The current figure is 53 percent.
- 80 percent: The amount by which the White House has overestimated next year’s economic growth, according to CBO (4.3 percent GDP growth in 2011 forecast by White House, versus 2.4 percent per CBO). Even if the White House is correct and the economy is about to come roaring back, it is foolish to count on such spectacular growth. (Recall what I’ve said before about rosy scenarios.)
- 24.1 percent: The average proportion of GDP that the federal government will spend from 2010-2020 given Obama’s plans, according to CBO. The 40-year historical average is 20.7 percent. So, we are talking about a federal government in 2020 that is one-sixth larger than it historically has been.
And all of this assumes that there will be no national emergencies over the next 10 years: No terrorist attacks or natural disasters that require extra spending. And it assumes that we will have a decade of uninterrupted economic growth; history suggests that’s unlikely.
We are talking about an expansion of government, the deficit and debt that is an order of magnitude greater than anything we’ve seen before. If you’re one of those people asking why fiscal conservatives are suddenly concerned about the deficit now, and weren’t holding tea parties back when Bush was still in office, this is why.
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
248 comments Add your comment
emo
March 8th, 2010
4:08 pm
I am nobody but who I claim to be.
Sorry you can’t take it.
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:12 pm
“and talk about how he is the savior of the world?
Another lie. You said that, not us.”
That MUST be why Obama supporters were getting on tv talking about how he was going to save the world! LOL
HOPE!
“how come more people trust them than any other news organization?
Because they’re blind.”
And I’ll guess that you think PMSNBC viewers, which average about 10,000 per day, are educated! LOL
“Better than RNC talking points. At least ours make sense.”
Yep, and THAT is why the democrat party is falling apart. Yep, the democrat plan, whatever that may be, is working out great!
“And I knew you could never address my points.”
That’s because you have no point.
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:14 pm
Just for you elmo, I mean emu, I mean emo.
Obama, the Fallen Messiah
During a time of economic decline, persistent cultural strife, deepening American involvement in far-off military conflicts, and rapid environmental deterioration, is there any wonder that so many Americans believe in salvation fantasies promising them both a transcendent, everlasting future and violent retribution against perceived evildoers? A 2002 CNN poll found that 59% of Americans believed that the prophecies in the Book of Revelations would come true.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/max-blumenthal/obama-the-fallen-messiah_b_404531.html
tscali
March 8th, 2010
4:14 pm
whenever government downsizes in one area they use those savings to supersize another non-essential bureacracy. get a clue people! they operate under the assumption that it is THEIR money, not ours.
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:15 pm
“they operate under the assumption that it is THEIR money, not ours.”
But according to HDB, it IS their money. After all, rich people are evil!!!! LOL
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:16 pm
emo, here is another example of how libs see Obama as a messiah.
Is Barack Obama the Messiah?
http://obamamessiah.blogspot.com/
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:18 pm
emo, and here is another.
Farrakhan on Obama: ‘The Messiah is absolutely speaking’
‘Barack has captured the youth,’ will bring about ‘universal change’
Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, another powerful Chicago-based political figure associated with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and other long-time associates of Democratic Party presidential candidate Barack Obama, is leaving no doubt about what he thinks of the leader in the campaign for the White House.
He says when Obama talks “the Messiah is absolutely speaking.”
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:19 pm
emo, here is yet…another
Obama the Messiah is going to produce profound disillusion
There is a video clip running on YouTube at the moment which shows a black woman moved nearly to tears at an Obama rally, telling a television interviewer that all her problems will be at an end when he is elected president. She won’t have to worry anymore about putting gas in her car or paying her mortgage because “he will help me”.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/5633493/Obama_the_Messiah_is_going_to_produce_profound_disillusion/
Giant Generation
March 8th, 2010
4:25 pm
Fetch me my double Jack on the rocks, boy, er LA…make it snappy, we own you and your whole worthless generation….chop chop BOY.
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:26 pm
“Fetch me my double Jack on the rocks, boy, er LA…make it snappy, we own you and your whole worthless generation….chop chop BOY.”
Sorry, I am not a member of NAMBLA. Maybe I should report you to the cops.
emo
March 8th, 2010
4:29 pm
A 2002 CNN poll found that 59% of Americans believed that the prophecies in the Book of Revelations would come true.
Besides that being from Bush’s era, they are undoubtedly Republicans.
@@
March 8th, 2010
4:30 pm
It looks like the CBO will never find that same page that Obama’s reading from in his “history” book.
Another thing….it looks like Massa is wanting to “come out” in more ways than one. Whistleblower and I’ll just leave it at that.
Things just get more and more interesting with each turn of the page.
Obama is not making history, he’s on his way to being history.
He blew it!
Giant Generation
March 8th, 2010
4:32 pm
LA is a bar boy at the Atlanta Country Club, working for tips only. What a loser….Fetch bar boy, fetch…
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:32 pm
“Besides that being from Bush’s era, they are undoubtedly Republicans.”
Oh, so now you’re going to bash Christians?
emo
March 8th, 2010
4:33 pm
Linda, you asked an intelligent question that deserves an answer:
Neither war was ever put into the budget. If you remember, they were always funded under repeated emergency bills that do not count as budget.
Obama put them into the budget, which makes it look worse than it was, but at least accurate. I think they also started valuing Medicare part D at the $700 billion that it is, not the $400 billion we were promised by Congress before 2006.
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:33 pm
“LA is a bar boy at the Atlanta Country Club, working for tips only. What a loser….Fetch bar boy, fetch…”
Seriously, is that the BEST cut down you can think of???????????
Giant Generation
March 8th, 2010
4:34 pm
LA is sorry he is not a member of NAMBLA, apparently even they have some standards which that sorry excuse for a human could not meet.
emo
March 8th, 2010
4:34 pm
Oh, so now you’re going to bash Christians?
Actually, I thought that was what you were doing.
Giant Generation
March 8th, 2010
4:35 pm
That sobbing you hear coming from the coat closet is LA, the cry baby. Will someone please change its diaper?
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:37 pm
“”LA is sorry he is not a member of NAMBLA, apparently even they have some standards which that sorry excuse for a human could not meet.
??????????????????
You have no idea what NAMBLA is do you?
NAMBLA is a group of pedophiles who rape little boys. You just admitted that they have standards which makes you a complete creep.
You are a horrible human being.
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:38 pm
“Actually, I thought that was what you were doing.”
When?
Jefferson
March 8th, 2010
4:39 pm
LA – I for one could care less if the ‘D’s lose seats. I just know the “R’s have NOTHING to offer. Go sell your “hope” to somebody who is buying.
Giant Generation
March 8th, 2010
4:40 pm
How does LA know so much about NAMBLA? Is he/she/it the recruiting coordinator for NAMBLA in Atlanta? Quick, someone call the cops….
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:40 pm
“Go sell your “hope” to somebody who is buying”
But that’s your guy’s marketing slogan. Tell your messiah Obama to change it if you don’t like it.
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:41 pm
“That sobbing you hear coming from the coat closet is LA, the cry baby. Will someone please change its diaper?”
No, actually that screaming is coming from the little boys you keep in your basement.
CJ
March 8th, 2010
4:42 pm
Once again, I agree with Kyle’s math, but I question his analysis.
First, Bill Clinton inherited Reagan/Bush deficits, and projections for years after he came into office were for continued deficits for as far as the eye could see. In addition, G.W. Bush and Dick “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter” Cheney were operating at a time the CBO were projecting surpluses for as far as the eye could see. In short, these projections can and will respond to the policies actually implemented over time to reflect current conditions.
Second, Kyle writes, “… we will average a $1 trillion deficit over the next 10 years, after never breaching $1 trillion a single time before Bush’s final budget.” Emphasis mine.
Third, Kyle compares the projected spending of the federal government as a percentage of GDP under Obama with the average size of the federal government over the last 40 years. Since Bush is responsible for growing the federal government significantly faster than his predecessors, I’d be curious to this comparison with the most recent government under Bush/Cheney. (Surely Obama can’t be held responsible for the growth in government associated with the baby boomers, Bush’s Medicare Part D, exponentially accumulating compound interest charges arising out of the Bush/Cheney debt, or temporary spending measures implemented to pull us out of the Bush/Cheney recession.)
Finally, as Kyle pointed out, the CBO estimates that Obama’s proposals would be responsible for increasing the debt by $3.8 trillion over ten years (the rest would result from entitlement growth, debt and interest rate growth, and wars and the economy that Obama inherited). Observe that $3.8 trillion is a lower number than the $5 trillion or so that Bush added to our debt in less eight years after inheriting a growing surplus.
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:42 pm
“How does LA know so much about NAMBLA?”
Because I saw you on tv getting arrested at your NAMBLA quarterly meeting.
Giant Generation
March 8th, 2010
4:45 pm
LA is a pervert, someone report him/her/it…..
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:47 pm
“I for one could care less if the ‘D’s lose seats. I just know the “R’s have NOTHING to offer.”
Sure you care if the democrats lose seats. The GOP does have ideas, they’re just overshadowed by the media who tells its followers of obamabots that the GOP doesn’t have any ideas.
Tell a lie long enough and democrat voters will believe it.
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:47 pm
Giant Generation is a pervert, someone report him/her/it…..
Intown
March 8th, 2010
4:53 pm
None of this deficit spending would be necessary if Bush hadn’t totaly screwed up America’s priorities with (1) continuing lax financial regulation and poor regulation of the economy in general; (2) sending the budget into deficit hell by ramming through unnecessary tax cuts via Reconciliation and uncontrolled spending on NEW entitlement programs; and (3) pissing America’s blood and treasure away on Iraq rather than fighting Al Qaeda. What America spends on Iraq in a week could bail several major American cities COMPLETELY out of debt.
Piso Mojado
March 8th, 2010
4:54 pm
LA has 55 posts. Wholly Mackeral!!!! And not one of them says much of anything. If ever there was a definition for “Get a Life”, I guess this is it.
Anywho, Republicans have ideas? Oh, really? Let’s hear a couple of them. The mindset of conservative bloggers parallels that of Republican national leadership. All they feed us is a steady diet of misplaced blame, irrational idealogically-driven poorly researched half-truths, and accusatory nonsensical jibberish.
Allen
March 8th, 2010
5:02 pm
It should be noted that budget projections are notoriously unreliable somewhere in the course of this debate.
LA
March 8th, 2010
5:03 pm
“LA has 55 posts. Wholly Mackeral!!!! And not one of them says much of anything. If ever there was a definition for “Get a Life”, I guess this is it.”
And here you are responding to me. You telling me to get a life is funny because here you are…..responding to me. Nice.
“Anywho, Republicans have ideas? Oh, really? Let’s hear a couple of them.”
On what subject?
“All they feed us is a steady diet of misplaced blame, irrational idealogically-driven poorly researched half-truths, and accusatory nonsensical jibberish.”
That does indeed sum up obamabots. Blame blame blame…..
“accusatory nonsensical jibberish”
Yeah mean like “it’s Bush’s fault?” Yep, talk about DNC talking points.
LA
March 8th, 2010
5:05 pm
“And not one of them says much of anything.”
Sure they do. They all say that democrats are in trouble, Obama is a one-term president and liberals worship Obama.
Jefferson
March 8th, 2010
5:08 pm
Talk about dilutional paranoid behaviour.
LA
March 8th, 2010
5:08 pm
“All they feed us is a steady diet of misplaced blame”
Example: Blame Bush, blame republicans, blame banks, blame Wall Street, blame rich people, blame white people, blame Christians………
“irrational idealogically-driven poorly researched half-truths”
Ex: “The economy will tank if we don’t get health care passed this year.” -B Hussein Obama Feb 2009.
“nonsensical jibberish.”
Ex: Yes we can! Change we can believe in!
LA
March 8th, 2010
5:09 pm
“Talk about dilutional paranoid behaviour.”
Talk about bad grammar.
Giant Generation
March 8th, 2010
5:13 pm
LA is a pervert HECKLER, out to trash this blog…Kyle needs to terminate LA, with extreme prejudice. Make it so….
HDB
March 8th, 2010
5:15 pm
Linda @ 3:54: Bush took the cost of the war off the books by using accounting tricks to hide the TRUE costs of the war. Obama went back to original accounting usage from the government!!
LA: My elevator works quite well….and thanks for the compliment. I HAVE evolved…from being an unknowledgable non-political person to an educated, knowledgable, fact-driven, REGISTERED VOTER! There are some who have yet to evolve….still remaining in the Prehistoric eras…voting against their best interests in order to maintain the status quo….
Evolution is a wonderful thing…….
No More Progressives!
March 8th, 2010
5:15 pm
Giant Generation
March 8th, 2010
4:40 pm
How does LA know so much about NAMBLA? Is he/she/it the recruiting coordinator for NAMBLA in Atlanta? Quick, someone call the cops….
Anyone who pays attention to current events knows who the perverted felons at NAMBLA are. The ACLU has defended them! Liberals rejoice!!!
http://old.nationalreview.com/murdock/murdock200402270920.asp
LA
March 8th, 2010
5:18 pm
Giant Generation is a pervert HECKLER, out to trash this blog…Kyle needs to terminate Giant Generation , with extreme prejudice. Make it so….
LA
March 8th, 2010
5:18 pm
Evolution is a wonderful thing…….called a theory.
LA
March 8th, 2010
5:19 pm
No More Progressives!
Giant Generation is fun to mess with. She’s so easy.
LA
March 8th, 2010
5:20 pm
“from being an unknowledgable non-political person to an educated, knowledgable, fact-driven, REGISTERED VOTER!”
If you are so educated, then why can’t you spell simple words?
Also, you never post facts, only democrat talking points.
Giant Generation
March 8th, 2010
5:21 pm
You are on the trash heap of this blog LA, you just don’t know it yet.
Jefferson
March 8th, 2010
5:21 pm
Read like a book.
emo
March 8th, 2010
5:21 pm
NAMB-LA, you have become tedious. My unpaid overtime is done and I am outta here.
LA
March 8th, 2010
5:22 pm
You are on the trash heap of this blog Giant Generation, you just don’t know it yet.
LA
March 8th, 2010
5:22 pm
“Read like a book.”
Yet you can’t spell.