Obama’s $8.6 trillion in deficits: Only a low-ball estimate
Anyone trying to claim a fiscal equivalence between the Bush era and the Obama era needs to review the latest report from the Congressional Budget Office.
In its recent budget report, the White House forecast budget deficits totaling $8.6 trillion over the next decade. To keep that in perspective, the total public debt held by the end of 2009 — that is, by the end of George W. Bush’s last budget — was $7.5 trillion.
Graph originally posted at gregmankiw.blogspot.com
CBO, however, says even that mind-boggling projection is too low. In fact, the nonpartisan budget crunchers estimate, the cumulative deficit from 2010-2020 will be $9.8 trillion. That’s a difference of $1.2 trillion, as illustrated to the left (the graph comes from Greg Mankiw).
How much is $1.2 trillion? It’s roughly the same as the combined deficits of Bush’s first four years in office. And remember, we’re only talking about the “extra” amount of total deficits in the decade to come.
But as bad as a $1.2 trillion underestimate is, here are the numbers to really worry about:
- $9.8 trillion: The cumulative budget deficits from 2010-2020 given Obama’s plans, according to CBO. In other words, we will average a $1 trillion deficit over the next 10 years, after never breaching $1 trillion a single time before Bush’s final budget.
- $3.8 trillion: The additional budget deficits from 2010-2020 given Obama’s plans, compared to just leaving the budget on auto-pilot, according to CBO.
- 90 percent: The public debt as a share of the total economy by 2020 given Obama’s plans, according to CBO. The current figure is 53 percent.
- 80 percent: The amount by which the White House has overestimated next year’s economic growth, according to CBO (4.3 percent GDP growth in 2011 forecast by White House, versus 2.4 percent per CBO). Even if the White House is correct and the economy is about to come roaring back, it is foolish to count on such spectacular growth. (Recall what I’ve said before about rosy scenarios.)
- 24.1 percent: The average proportion of GDP that the federal government will spend from 2010-2020 given Obama’s plans, according to CBO. The 40-year historical average is 20.7 percent. So, we are talking about a federal government in 2020 that is one-sixth larger than it historically has been.
And all of this assumes that there will be no national emergencies over the next 10 years: No terrorist attacks or natural disasters that require extra spending. And it assumes that we will have a decade of uninterrupted economic growth; history suggests that’s unlikely.
We are talking about an expansion of government, the deficit and debt that is an order of magnitude greater than anything we’ve seen before. If you’re one of those people asking why fiscal conservatives are suddenly concerned about the deficit now, and weren’t holding tea parties back when Bush was still in office, this is why.
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248 comments Add your comment
LA
March 8th, 2010
2:56 pm
“All this is a prelude to the Repukes and Kyle demanding we, the giant generation, give up the Social Security benefits we have paid into for all our working lives.”
I love how compassionate libs always resort to name calling. Social Security is dead. Done. Over with. Gone.
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
2:56 pm
Gen.Odierno stated today that they are on course for 50,000 troops to withdraw from Iraq by the end of next year; the Israelis and Palistinians are at the negotiating table, unemployment rates are declining……and the military has NOT been downsized………
It may be slow, but it’s happening!! Obama is trying to lead, but Congress needs to get into the game, look for the compromises, and get things gone!!!
LA
March 8th, 2010
2:56 pm
“Can’t you come up with anything better than the stale allegory you’ve just posted? ”
Ms. Durden gets her talking points from Keith Olberwoman. What do you expect?
LA
March 8th, 2010
2:57 pm
“Obama is trying to lead, but Congress needs to get into the game, look for the compromises, and get things gone!!!”
Obama doesn’t know how to lead. I guess he skipped Leading 101 at Harvard while he was smoking crack and drinking 40s.
“unemployment rates are declining”
No they’re not.
Churchill's MOM
March 8th, 2010
2:58 pm
I am absolutely convinced that we will not address the deficit as long as we have the current 2 parties in control. Each just pays off the Lobbyist that gives them money. I will vote against every incumbent in November and vote LIBERTARIAN where ever possible.
LA
March 8th, 2010
2:58 pm
“but Congress needs to get into the game, look for the compromises, and get things gone!!!’
Get things gone? Well, the democrats will be “gone” come November.
LA
March 8th, 2010
2:59 pm
“I will vote against every incumbent in November and vote LIBERTARIAN where ever possible.”
I love libertarians but there is no way in hell a Libertarian will ever win the White House. Too bad because most of them are great!
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
3:01 pm
LA….the free market doesn’t work in all cases; if FDR didn’t use the power of the government during the Great Depression, the nation would have been WORSE off than it was. It was a combination of the New Deal and WW2 that got the nation out of the Great Depression…….AND the nation was asked to SACRIFICE during war time via tax INCREASES….something that was NOT done in the present conflicts that we are engaged! Remember…Bush said “Keep shopping!” Please name me ONE moment in American history prior to 2002 where the nation did NOT sacrifice during war time by paying higher taxes!! And a tax cut is meaningless if one doesn’t have a JOB!!
Linda
March 8th, 2010
3:06 pm
Giant@2:52, Your social security is gone. Congress spent it, every penny of it. The AJC had nothing to do with it.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:06 pm
“if FDR didn’t use the power of the government during the Great Depression, the nation would have been WORSE off than it was.”
It was worse off because of him. He’s also a big reason why we now have term limits.
“Please name me ONE moment in American history prior to 2002 where the nation did NOT sacrifice during war time by paying higher taxes!!”
Why? I’m an advocate of cutting taxes, not raising them.
“And a tax cut is meaningless if one doesn’t have a JOB!!”
Yep, and we are re-learning what happens when you put a moron in the White House.
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
3:09 pm
High Stakes Test: EFFECTIVE government spending is the key…..government spending must be focused on the things that are required and what makes the nation work efficiently!!
Where was this level of OUTRAGE when Bush was doing all of this profligate spending?? Where was the OUTRAGE when the war time spending was taken OFF THE BOOKS?? There was no Tea Party protest, none from conservatives……NOTHING!!! Where was the OUTRAGE when KBR/Halliburton made millions in no-bid contracts…and American soldiers were electrocuted due to faulty wiring in KBR/Hallibutron facilities in Iraq???
That’s all I’m asking: WHY NOW…if not THEN???
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
3:12 pm
LA…so it’s better for one segment of the nation to sacrifice by the loss of its children and the other to prosper by not paying taxes? Is THAT what being an American citizen is???
That is what angers a lot of people….the SELFISHNESS of those with wealth!!
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
3:15 pm
@ LA: ….Yep, and we are re-learning what happens when you put a moron in the White House.
Glad you admitted that Bush WAS moronic……but Obama isn’t!! Obama didn’t put the war spending off the books…Obama didn’t help his cronies make millions on the war effort……Obama didn’t let the bin Laden family leave the US when the national airspace was shut down………
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:18 pm
“so it’s better for one segment of the nation to sacrifice by the loss of its children and the other to prosper by not paying taxes? Is THAT what being an American citizen is???”
You sure do like to make stuff up.
“That is what angers a lot of people….the SELFISHNESS of those with wealth!!”
Only a socialist would say that. People like you want everyone to be poor. Shame on you.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:20 pm
“Glad you admitted that Bush WAS moronic……but Obama isn’t!!”
Stupid much? I was referring to Jimmy Carter, ma’am.
“Obama didn’t help his cronies make millions on the war effort……Obama didn’t let the bin Laden family leave the US when the national airspace was shut down…”
No, he just helped his union comrades, accorn comrades and other government officials rich.
You really are a master of retardation.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:22 pm
“EFFECTIVE government spending is the key”
Yet there isn’t any. Ever.
“Where was this level of OUTRAGE when Bush was doing all of this profligate spending??”
Bush didn’t spend anything like Obama has.
“WHY NOW…if not THEN???”
Because we were not on the verge of bankruptcy. Also, your little temper tantrum isn’t going to work. Bush hurt the GOP and that’s why they lost on 2006 and in 08.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:24 pm
HDB`
You’re either in total denial or you’re just blind not to see what is coming in November. Obama is a one term president and his poll numbers have gone from 70% to 44% in one year. It’ll keep going down and so is the democrat party.
emo
March 8th, 2010
3:27 pm
HDB’, there’s no point trying to reason with LA. He will just call you names and type single lines with no backup or support.
BTW, I see no-one has addressed my original points, probably because they can’t: end the wards, repeal tax cuts and Medicare D or else you’re lying about caring about the deficit.
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
3:29 pm
LA…that’s what you were inferring…since this nation has NOT been called to sacrifice…only the wealthy can profit from the war while the poor and middle class send their sons and daughters off to fight….and over 4000 have died in this nation’s defense!!
It’s not retarded to point that out….it’s what you are advocating!! And it IS SELFISH!! I don’t want everyone to be poor, but in time of war/conflict, ALL of the nation must bear a sacrifice…that INCLUDES those with wealth!!
Jimmy Carter wasn’t a moron; he was what George W. Bush CLAIMED to be: a Christian who tried to do what was right!! Under Carter’s Administration, government spending was flat…deficits were only $46B per year…….and R&D for the preponderance of the smart technology used by the Defense Department was FUNDED under Carter.
Remember: Bush was just a “C” student at Yale………not the brightest light bulb on the sign……
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:31 pm
“He will just call you names and type single lines with no backup or support.”
Although I didn’t call him any names. I just asked him if he was stupid.
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
3:33 pm
LA…wait a minute..all this war time spending was OFF the BOOKS….so we don’t know actually HOW MUCH was spent……and you’re saying Obama is spending too much money?? Obama has put the war spending ON the books…so at least we KNOW what’s being spent……plus he’s spending on what NEEDS to be spent…not just allowing your pals to get richer!!!
Illogical……..
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:33 pm
“that’s what you were inferring”
No, you have a big problem assuming things about people. It must be why you vote democrat.
“and over 4000 have died in this nation’s defense!!’
Yep, and we are safer for their sacrifice. 3000 people died on 911. Want to politicize them?
“Jimmy Carter wasn’t a moron”
Yes he was. Science has proved it.
“Remember: Bush was just a “C” student at Yale………not the brightest light bulb on the sign…’
As was John Kerry and Al Gore. Your point?
emo
March 8th, 2010
3:34 pm
Only a socialist would say that.
Stupid much? I was referring to Jimmy Carter
You really are a master of retardation
Yep, and we are re-learning what happens when you put a moron in the White House
Of course you don’t call people names.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:35 pm
“not just allowing your pals to get richer!!!”
Again, you assume. You assume that my pals are rich. If you know so much about me then please inform us who I am friends with.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:36 pm
“Of course you don’t call people names.”
Political leaders are free-reign on name calling. Just ask HDB who called Bush a moron.
I didn’t know “socialist” was a bad word considering democrat voters tend to be lazy and want to live off of welfare…
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:37 pm
“plus he’s spending on what NEEDS to be spent’
Yes, because teachers unions and auto unions need more money! LOL
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
3:38 pm
LA…I have no problem with divided government IF it WORKS!! It did under Clinton; it can work here!! When one party — EITHER party has total control, they extent further than is needed!! The problem is that the GOP only looks after those with wealth while neglecting the rest of the nation….and the Democrats look after the poor and middle class to the detriment (at times) of those with wealth!! In WAR, the ENITRE nation MUST sacrifice……not just those who send their sons and daughters to fight!! Out of 535 Congressmen…..only 5% have sent their sons off to fight…..and less that 1% of those with wealth have done so!! THAT’S SELFISH!!
no…I’m not stupid….I remember my history…..and LEARNED from it!!
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:38 pm
“BTW, I see no-one has addressed my original points, probably because they can’t: end the wards, repeal tax cuts and Medicare D or else you’re lying about caring about the deficit.”
It wouldn’t matter if anyone addressed your “points” because you would proceed to say that we all get our news from Faux News.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:41 pm
“It did under Clinton’
That’s because BJ Bill had no choice. The GOP tied his hands.
“The problem is that the GOP only looks after those with wealth while neglecting the rest of the nation….and the Democrats look after the poor and middle class to the detriment (at times) of those with wealth!!”
Yep, the GOP wants everyone to be rich and the Democrats want everyone to be poor.
“Out of 535 Congressmen…..only 5% have sent their sons off to fight…..and less that 1% of those with wealth have done so!! THAT’S SELFISH!!”
Did you serve? If not, then you are selfish.
“no…I’m not stupid….I remember my history…..and LEARNED from it!!”
Nice, you’re one step up from a Chimp. I guess evolution did work out for you.
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
3:41 pm
LA….you inferred that Bush was a moron by the word “re-learning”; I just made it concrete!!
ALL Democratic voters do NOT live on welfare and are lazy; the majority of us WORK…and work HARD!! Those who educate children work HARD; those who put cars together wortk HARD; those who serve the public work HARD…..and many of them are Democrats!!
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
3:42 pm
…and I AM a veteran….served in the Navy!!
HDB`
March 8th, 2010
3:44 pm
LA…the GOP only wants their FRIENDS to be rich…not everybody! IF that were the case, why don’t they assist those who WANT to be rich to BE rich rather than hoarding it all!!???
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:44 pm
“you inferred that Bush was a moron by the word “re-learning”
Can’t read can you?
“ALL Democratic voters do NOT live on welfare and are lazy”
Didn’t say all democrat voters. Just the majority and yes they do live on welfare.
“…and I AM a veteran….served in the Navy!!”
You served in Old Navy.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:46 pm
“the GOP only wants their FRIENDS to be rich…not everybody!”
Do you realize how ignorant that statement is? The democrats are rich. Every single democrat congressman serving is rich.
“why don’t they assist those who WANT to be rich to BE rich rather than hoarding it all!!???”
Are you referring to Shinquita and Menthol who live on the south side of Chicago?
retiredds
March 8th, 2010
3:49 pm
LA, two items. I can say that unemployment would be 10% no matter who is president because that’s my assessment. Your assumption that it would not is also an assessment. Neither one of us can prove our points other than to look at historical data. I don’t think the “free market” corrected itself in 1929-1935. As a matter of fact FDR wanted to balance the budget then but when his Treasury Secretary recommended cutting the money supply there was a second dip and that’s when FDR moved on the NRA, CCC, and other programs.
Yes, I agree that the free market would correct itself if given enough time and the unemployment rate doesn’t go above 15% for a protracted period of time. I don’t know who Obama’s enconomists are but there are many, mostly conservative in their fiscal and economic policy views, who have said without the two programs (yes, two, the TARP funds that GWB initiated that went to banks, insurance companies, and auto companies, and the stimulus program under BO) the unemployment rate would be much higher and if you throw in the underemployment rate and those who have given up looking for a job, it is not a stretch to be looking at 25%-30% and those are Depression-like numbers. If there is a lot of screaming about 10%, and about 17% with underemployed and those not looking for jobs, there would be riots in the streets, to say the least. Also it would add more credence to your arguments if you were a little more dispassionate. I apologize for being a moron because I disagree with you. But if I am moron in your eyes, so be it. At times like this it’s fun being a moron.
emo
March 8th, 2010
3:49 pm
Bush WAS (and is a moron), no doubt why you worship him.
And I’ll bet you DO get your “news” from the liars at Fox. If you ever watched anything else you’d know they lie.
emo
March 8th, 2010
3:50 pm
You’re right about one thing: unemployment would not be 10%. Under McCain, we’d be in a full-fledged Depression with 25% unemployment.
Jefferson
March 8th, 2010
3:52 pm
GOP sheep just don’t see they are being played. Nothing is as good as it seems, nothing is as bad.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:52 pm
“But if I am moron in your eyes, so be it. At times like this it’s fun being a moron.”
No retiredds, you’re not a moron.
Linda
March 8th, 2010
3:54 pm
HDB@3:38, How was the war time spending off the books? How did BO put it on the books? How did we not know how much was being spent until he did?
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:54 pm
“Bush WAS (and is a moron), no doubt why you worship him.’
You mean like Obama supporters who put “Hope” stickers on their cars and talk about how he is the savior of the world? Nah, I just think Bush should have been more vocal about things.
“And I’ll bet you DO get your “news” from the liars at Fox.”
Yep, I pretty much figured you out from the beginning. If Fox employs liars then how come more people trust them than any other news organization?
I bet you have a Kieth Olberwoman poster over your bunk bed.
“If you ever watched anything else you’d know they lie.”
And you have proof that they lie? Nope, but keep throwing out DNC talking points.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:55 pm
“Under McCain, we’d be in a full-fledged Depression with 25% unemployment.”
I bet you think 911 was an inside job.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:56 pm
“GOP sheep just don’t see they are being played.”
Too bad DNC sheep can’t see the blood bath that is headed against them in November.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:57 pm
Linda
One thing you gotta understand about HDB. The elevator doesn’t go all the way to the top, if you know what I mean. This same genius stated that Jimmy Carter was a great president.
LA
March 8th, 2010
3:59 pm
Wisconsin AG charges ACORN workers with voter fraud
Five Wisconsin residents have been charged with criminal counts of voter fraud in the November 2008 general election, state Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen announced today.
Two of those charged, Maria Miles and Kevin Clancy, are workers for the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN), the embattled community group.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Wisconsin-AG-charges-ACORN-workers-with-voter-fraud-86924587.html
Giant Generation
March 8th, 2010
4:04 pm
STUPID LA: Look at your last pay stub, you will see Social Security tax has been remove. It will continue to be removed, at an increasing rate. Oh, your last pay stub is two years old…LOSER.
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:06 pm
“STUPID LA: Look at your last pay stub, you will see Social Security tax has been remove. It will continue to be removed, at an increasing rate. Oh, your last pay stub is two years old…LOSER.”
Awwwwwwwwwe, looks like some whittle democrat voter is angry! LOL
LA
March 8th, 2010
4:07 pm
Giant Generation is emo in disguise. Although she can’t disguise herself well.
emo
March 8th, 2010
4:08 pm
and talk about how he is the savior of the world?
Another lie. You said that, not us.
how come more people trust them than any other news organization?
Because they’re blind.
Nope, but keep throwing out DNC talking points.
Better than RNC talking points. At least ours make sense.
And I knew you could never address my points.
retiredds
March 8th, 2010
4:08 pm
Thanks LA. Good to banter with you. I have to leave for the day. We’ll meet again on another subject.