I get a lot of questions about what will happen with health-care legislation now that the House has passed a bill. My feeling is that a bill as liberal as the House version cannot get 60 votes in the Senate — so the question is whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will try to pass a less ambitious bill that gets the 60 votes needed to overcome a Republican filibuster, or will attempt to pass the more liberal bill with 51 votes in the process known as reconciliation.
Keith Hennessey, to whom I linked last week talking about Bush deficits vs. Obama deficits, today writes a more dispassionate take on the odds of different scenarios. This is an update on his earlier predictions. Bottom line:
I am still projecting a 60% chance that a comprehensive bill becomes law this year, but I have shifted some of that 60% from the regular order path to the reconciliation path. By itself I’d never expect the Senate to shift to a reconciliation path after failing to get 60 – Senate-only logic says heck no, and the strain on Reid’s caucus would be too great. But if Democratic leaders are forced to shift away from regular order on a comprehensive bill, I would guess that Speaker Pelosi would push hard for the Senate to use reconciliation to produce a bill more compatible with the House-passed bill rather than dialing back expectations.
There is more detail in his entire post, so give it a look if you’re interested in the gory details.
As for the legislation itself, Martin Feldstein concludes that Congress is likely to pass a bill that raises premiums and results in fewer people having insurance.
32 comments Add your comment
jconservative
November 9th, 2009
3:57 pm
My vote is that a 60 vote bill will pass the Senate with a version of Snowe’s trigger replacing the “public option”. Leiberman will vote for the bill.
DebbieDoRight
November 9th, 2009
5:13 pm
Oh that Kyle….all that “compassionate conservatism” is making him a little woozy!! Guess he doesn’t know that Healthcare reform will pass because, contrary to the 7 people who show up to tea parties and such, the american people DO want it. If Kyle, or one of his tea party friends, have to file bankruptcy a couple of times because of the medical bills, (and don’t try to say it won’t happen Kyle ’cause as you know, the hubris fairies are always listening out for things like that so that they can slap you back down to earth), then maybe then they’ll understand what all the fuss is about. Until then, they should pray that they stay healthy for a long, long time.
Or at least until they qualify for Medicare……..
David Axelfraud
November 9th, 2009
5:55 pm
The bill will pass. America will suffer and the libs will all try to blame Bush once they all can’t get their STD medications. Keith Olberman will be crying on MSNBC because he can’t get a new prescription for Valium. Rachel Maddows herpes medication will run out so expect her to scream as well.
David Axelfraud
November 9th, 2009
5:56 pm
DebbieDoRight, watch out because you may end up in jail. A lot of liberals live off of their trust funds but once that runs out……………………
David Axelfraud
November 9th, 2009
5:58 pm
jconservative, once the bill passes it will be the end of America. We will become a true socialist state and unemployment will rise to 30%. Americans will have to depend on the dictator Obama Hussein for bread and water. Both Democrats and Republicans will transform into the United States Socialist Party.
Sunshine and Thunder
November 9th, 2009
11:03 pm
Just tell all the ugly, dreadlock armpitted dim women that they can have sex with powerful but ugly dim men and then abort the babies. As long as congress will make taxpayers pay for that we don’t have to have a major health care bill.
DebbieDoRight
November 10th, 2009
12:23 am
David: They said the same thing about integrating the schools, buses, hospitals, etc. in the 50’s. How’d that turn out?
Sunshine: All the ugly women date republican men. Ooops sorry, I MEANT to say that all the ugly MEN date republican men. My bad!!
Health Care
November 10th, 2009
6:39 am
Both Democrats and Republicans will transform into the United States Socialist Party.in america a health care program and health care bill accept the government.
Health Care
November 10th, 2009
6:53 am
in the america they government has passed the healthcare bill they people happy and looking good.
Skip
November 10th, 2009
7:52 am
We don’t have the money for health care. There are wars to start, moons to visit and bankers to pay off. Buy a first aid kit, we have nations to build.
bob
November 10th, 2009
8:24 am
Debbiedoright, are you really happy with our schools ? If you are using Atlanta Public schools as a success story then I understand why you want to force other people to help you with your healthcare. It’s amazing that so many have low standards. I guess you think Social Security is a good investment ?
dewstarpath
November 10th, 2009
8:32 am
- Considering all of the “socialist” and “liberal” content on
Internet websites, it’s hypocritical for so many “conservatives”
to spend so much time online. Real change involves running for
office and legitimate campaigning, not throwing around insults.
misplaced
November 10th, 2009
8:45 am
No Bob Social Security is insurance, I find comfort in knowing that people can’t opt out easily and invest how they want only to loose it all then come back wanting a second handout.
Road Scholar
November 10th, 2009
8:46 am
dewstarpath: But it is soooo much more easy to just complain and do nothing. You want them to run for office when they can’t even research different views and formulate their own positions?
Ayn Rand Was Right
November 10th, 2009
9:08 am
My prediction is that healthcare will not pass. The abortion platform, that for the last 30 years has separated the parties and provided voting blocks for and against, is drying up. Healthcare will be the new Roe v Wade with 20-30 years of people protesting and fighting and killing each other over ideals, while politicians rake in the cash to buy their incumbencies devoted to one side or the other. The sheeple’s will be done.
David Axelfraud
November 10th, 2009
9:50 am
DebbieDoRight, how’d the schools turn out? Well, for one, we have the worst public school system in the world. Black kids score the lowest on tests than any other race in this country. So…………
David Axelfraud
November 10th, 2009
9:51 am
misplaced, uh, SS is dead.
David Axelfraud
November 10th, 2009
9:59 am
Not to change the subject but here is another broken promise from Obama.
Obama’s Afghan Plan: About 40K More Troops
CBS Exclusive: Sources Say Force Will Grow to 100,000 with Long-Term Stay Planned; White House Denies Report
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/11/09/world/main5592551.shtml
David Axelfraud
November 10th, 2009
10:01 am
dewstarpath wrote: it’s hypocritical for so many “conservatives”
to spend so much time online. Real change involves running for
office and legitimate campaigning, not throwing around insults.
Well dewstarpath, you’re one to talk. Seeing that you throw out insults and spend a lot of time on this and Cynthia Tuckers blog.
Just saying.
BS Aplenty
November 10th, 2009
10:23 am
Not to stray too far from the topic of the day but the following link is provided to all the Dem libtards who threw copious temper tantrums when the BUSH ADMINISTRATION, led by Sec. of the Treasury Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke, fashioned a market-based credit solution to stabilize the financial and banking system in this country.
One of the biggest of the corporate problem children, and potentially the most costly to the U.S. taxpayer, was American International Group. AIG was among the heaviest of the issuers in the credit derviative swaps market. By Sept. 2008 the company was required to post collateral on its swaps but didn’t have the assets available. The Bush Administration, so the libtard rant went, was only providing a bailout for AIG because Republicans are the party of the rich.
Make that the Party of the smart.
Repukes ALL Suck Eggs
November 10th, 2009
10:41 am
If you have decent health care insurance today and may need some work done at some point, I suggest you get that work done now. Costs are going up, up, up and access will be going down, down, down. Mark my words, someone has to pay for all the dead beats out there with expensive diseases and no insurance. Dumping them into OUR insurance pool is going to drive OUR costs up, and tie up health care resources treating the dead beats. If U need a knee or hip replacement, get it done now, not later. Now you can have a first rate surgeon, later it will be a third rate newbie just learning the cut and stitch trade. We will all be paying for debbieDOlittle and her annual tittie xrays, pelvic exams, bone density tests, ekgs, pulmonary function tests, CAT scans, MRI’s, UltraSounds, her motorized wheel chairs, and all the reconstructive surgery possible to make her look like she is still 29 and under 200 pounds. Of course, all modern medicine can do for Dusty is give her free designer bags to put over her ugly head, but then again, designer bags are expensive. Remember, women consume 80% of health care insurance benefits in America, and there is no limit to their demand for health care.
booger
November 10th, 2009
10:43 am
Some kind of bill will be passed. It would be political suicide to pull out of the race at this time. Given the fact that the Senate version looks like it will be a long and drawn out affair, a real debate in other words, I think ultimately reconcilation will be the path taken. This will only occur, however, after a lot of phoney handwringing so that Obama can say he made an honest attempt to reach out to the repubs.
I would expect Obama’s staff has already written the version he will ultimately cram down our throats.
Repukes ALL Suck Eggs
November 10th, 2009
11:02 am
Over the decades I have noticed that females in the work force tend to sit in their offices chatting with their moms, friends, and their co goof offs most of the day. Now we have to add blogging. I notice DebbieDoLittle is on this blog all day long, every day. This is just one blog, how many others does Debbie waste her employers time on? How does she get any work done? Now realize that just over 50% of the employed people in the usa are female. I strongly suspect our economic future is not gonna be very pretty.
dewstarpath
November 10th, 2009
12:45 pm
- Road scholar – All is not lost with conservatives.
Not all of them are as unhinged as Axelfraud. There is
increasing membership with more moderate groups, such
as Libertarians and Independents (as made evident by the
governor’s races in VA and NJ, two states I have personal
ties to). Our country has too many complex issues to be
as polarized as current politics makes us out to be.
dewstarpath
November 10th, 2009
12:49 pm
- Repukes All Sucks Eggs(?) –
You shouldn’t stereotype all women that way.
You wouldn’t want anyone to say that about YOUR mother.
David Axelfraud
November 10th, 2009
1:41 pm
dewstarpath, unhinged? No, unhinged is when an Islamic radical shoots up an Army base killing 13 and wounding over 31. As for me, I vote! I also call BS on left wingers like you.
David Axelfraud
November 10th, 2009
1:43 pm
dewstarpath, one more thing. Libertarians are not moderates. Libertarians don’t vote with Democrats because Libertarians don’t believe in communism. Libertarians love Reagan and conservatism.
Our country is polarized due to whiny crybaby liberals who pee their pants over spending and wars YET put a president in the White House who does just that.
David Axelfraud
November 10th, 2009
1:45 pm
dewstarpath has a misguided view of conservatism. She thinks that the governor of VI is a moderate.
Hate to break the news to you dewstarpath, but the newly elected governor is a conservative who ran on conservative principals. Conservatism wins over liberalism any day.
David Axelfraud
November 10th, 2009
1:46 pm
Correction: VA not VI.
DebbieDoRight
November 10th, 2009
3:34 pm
Debbiedoright, are you really happy with our schools ? If you are using Atlanta Public schools as a success story then I understand why you want to force other people to help you with your healthcare. It’s amazing that so many have low standards. I guess you think Social Security is a good investment ?
I did not go to primary school in the State of Georgia, (which ranks 49 out of 50 — I think Mississippi just eked Georgia out as the dumbest); I was a DOD kid and went to predominantly DOD schools, (with a lot of Black, White, Mexican, Spanish, Muslim, Indian, Hebrew etc. kids); turned out great for me!!! I did however go to college in Georgia, at a college that is in the top 25% of colleges across the US. Isn’t it kinda strange that Georgia can have good colleges but bad primary schools?
Social security IS a good investment. Without SS we’d have poor houses and prisons for debtors again, and being that we call ourselves “GREAT” as a country, it would really look kinda backwards to have poor houses for debtors, don’t you think? We’d be just like the (spit, hisss, curse), MUSLIMS!!!!
Whine: I notice DebbieDoLittle is on this blog all day long, every day. This is just one blog, how many others does Debbie waste her employers time on?
Then you must be getting feeble, (or your Mom forgot to change your Depends again); check the blogs for the past six months if you’d like and you’ll see I’m hardly ever on. But, if it makes your point by inventing fairy tales and lies, well, you go right ahead. We’ll get your mom to write down all your “funny quips” so that you can put it into your new book, “How to live debt free and have a maid too!!” Subtitled: “By Living In Your Mom’s Basement Until You’re 50″.
Whine: We will all be paying for debbieDOlittle and her annual tittie xrays, pelvic exams, bone density tests, ekgs, pulmonary function tests, CAT scans, MRI’s, UltraSounds, her motorized wheel chairs, and all the reconstructive surgery possible to make her look like she is still 29 and under 200 pounds
Whine, I have health coverage AND my husband, a military contractor, has GREAT healthcare coverage!! Thanks for looking out for me though!! You’re a real pal.
David: Black kids score the lowest all over the states huh? You know what I always wondered about statements like that? How are the statistics driven? I mean, when I was at school and had to take standardized tests, not ONCE did they ask the RACE of the tester!! So, how can someone glean a statistic as to what percentage of this or that race tests higher? I mean you can say, on average, a school that is predominantly black tested lower than a school that is predominantly white; but you really can’t say, without lieing of course, that black kids as a WHOLE test lower than whites, unless there is a surreptitious and illegal coding going on of tests. Your thoughts?
Oh and about SS, you think maybe we should’ve put the funds into the Stock Market like Bush suggested two years ago? I wonder what would’ve happened to everyone’s SS benefits then……..hmmmmmmmm……..???
David Axelfraud
November 11th, 2009
9:39 am
Hey Kyle, you gonna do anything about Robopublican?
If not, I will. And it ain’t gonna be pretty when I hit back.
Kyle Wingfield
November 11th, 2009
10:10 am
Axelfraud: I missed those comments from Robopublican earlier, but I’ve taken them down now.