Congress’ independent problem

Rasmussen Reports has been putting out some interesting polling data about how voters view Democrats and Republicans in Congress. In sum, a plurality of Democratic voters think Democratic members of Congress share their ideological views, while a majority of Republican voters consider GOP members more liberal than GOP voters.

Not exactly a vote of confidence for the GOP, even after a health-care debate that ought to have Republicans riding high. What’s even more interesting, though, is the way independents view Capitol Hill’s denizens:

Sixty-two percent (62%) of the unaffiliateds believe the average Democrat in Congress is more liberal than the average Democratic voter.

Meanwhile:

Seventy-one percent (71%) of unaffiliated voters believe the Republicans in Congress have lost touch with their base and a plurality of unaffiliateds (41%) believe that the average Republican in Congress is more liberal than the average Republican voters.

Now, one might argue that these independent voters are simply saying that GOP voters are very conservative and Democratic voters are fairly moderate. But inarguably, these results indicate that, no matter which party you’re talking about, independents feel strongly that members of Congress don’t accurately represent their own core voters. That’s not a vote of confidence for either party.

Will any of this matter in next year’s mid-term elections — particularly in closely contested congressional races? Might independents in blue districts punish Democratic incumbents for being too liberal? What could be the effect on GOP incumbents in red districts?

And for an explanation of why incumbents will probably continue to be re-elected at rates that defy Congress’ unpopularity, scroll to the bottom of this article.