Question marks temper season predictions for the Dawgs
How many times will we be able to say this during the 2012 season? (Photo by Olivia King)
Even though I know in advance what he’s going to say, I always get a kick out of asking my brother Jon for his prediction of what sort of season the football Dawgs will have.
Just about every year it’s the same answer: “Undefeated!”
This year, thanks to the amped up preseason ranking Mark Richt’s team is enjoying, Jon isn’t alone in seeing a chance for Georgia to win it all, but the expectations of most fans I’ve heard from are slightly more modest, with the vast majority predicting regular-season records of 11-1 or 10-2 and probably another SEC East title.
That’s the way it generally went when I asked Blawg friends on Facebook for their opinion, though there were a handful of doubters who saw a 9-3 record (or worse). But considering the favorable schedule and all the returning talent, I think anything less than a 10-win regular season would be viewed as a disappointment by many in the Bulldog Nation.
I’m generally pretty conservative in my annual venture out on a limb to make a season prediction. Last year, I went for 9-3 and said I couldn’t quite see the Dawgs getting 10 regular-season wins.
I love being wrong in those situations!
Anyway, in looking at the 2012 season, I’ve been fluctuating between 11-1 and 10-2. I think if they get past Missouri, 11-1 looks pretty reasonable. And if they get past Missouri and South Carolina, I think the odds increase dramatically that they’d enter the conference championship game undefeated.
But I finally decided 10-2 looks more likely, with the most probable losses being to South Carolina and either Mizzou or the Gators, though if the Dawgs don’t play their best they could come up short against a Brian Van Gorder Auburn defense, too. Depending on who the Gamecocks lose to, that still could be good enough to put Georgia back in the SEC championship game, though.
Here’s why I see Georgia with a couple of losses this season:
Aside from the possible impact of suspensions for the Missouri game, I think the team will be fine defensively, assuming the offense doesn’t sputter and keep the D out on the field too long, as it did in last year’s bowl game.
But like my son (who also sees the Dogs going 10-2), I’m concerned about the offense. The Dawgs have a young and not very deep offensive line combined with running backs who are either young or not super talented. So, running the ball could be hard against really good defenses and D-lines (as in the games against LSU and Michigan State last year).
Between the 20-yard lines, Mike Bobo is a master, but inside the red zone it gets trickier. That’s where the Georgia offense worries me, especially with Orson Charles gone as Aaron Murray’s safety valve.
And what worries me even more is special teams. We saw last year what a difference they can make. This season, not only do the Dawgs have an unproven freshman stepping in as placekicker, but I’m not convinced Richt has done enough to fix the problem. There’s still no one person in charge of the special teams. Also, reports from players are that more time has not been allotted to special teams in practices, though there’s been more talk about the need to get better and more starters are likely to play on coverage teams. Will that be enough? I’m skeptical.
Overall, the Dawgs are talented enough to beat every team on their schedule, but I believe the question marks about the OL and special teams loom large enough to derail brother Jon’s prediction.
How about you? What regular-season record do you see Georgia finishing with this year?
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180 comments Add your comment
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
3:26 pm
Good heavens man!
I love how you have morphed this very fine point.
Lets back up:
Did you or did you not say that the “suspensions” are going to hurt Georgia in that Mizzou game (no matter the outcome of the decision)?
Now, I will conceed that I needed to word my point more precisely: the suspension are a done deal (no matter the outcome of the decision) . That is more clear. I assumed that my explaination that the team had already factored it in made that clear, But I didnt use that wording.
At NO point did I ever argue with you that I personally know the decision. As if that’s not obvious.
CHDawg
August 30th, 2012
3:31 pm
Huh, I just found a story from on AJC that confirms the test notification didn’t come until *after* the game!! Drug tests take a while to run and process. Positive tests are usually retested with a split sample to protect the innocent. It takes time. AJC said UGA received notification on the Tuesday following the UF game.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
3:32 pm
I am not the one arguing that the decision has been made. My point has been, all along, that we don’t know. I guess one could split hairs and say that there is a big difference between a decision having been made vs. the public knowing about it. All I said was that we didn’t know.
You can say that the suspensions have “already been factored in” but the buzz amongst UGA fans and the media is that it will hurt UGA if those two don’t play. No way around that. Has it been “factored in”? I am sure UGA has a backup plan in case they don’t. Most teams would. However, Rabmo and Tree are starters for a reason…and if they don’t play, it will hurt UGA’s chances.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
3:50 pm
Well now we are geting somewhere.
So you could have said, If those particular players aren’t in the game, then that hurts Georgia. And left all that BS about “not knowing” out, which is irrelevant.
Great. Good point. So NOW I go back to the very first point I was making. What do you know about Mizzou that tells you that this will cause us to lose? I realize that it’s less than ideal, but how do you know our replacement (that I say have been expecting to start that gamefor quite a while now) aren;t plenty good enough to beat them anyway.
Very much like my point on “question mark”. That’s just a generic term. It doesnt mean anything. WHAT is your question about them? What do you know about MIzzou’s (defensive line and rush defense, special teams) that leads you to “question” our O-line, RB, and Kickers ability to still be good enough to win. I maintain that we pretty much know what they are right now. .
Tha’ts a lot different that if you were to say: your line is a “question mark” against the Alabama defense. We know what the question is. Can they hold up against what we know Bama’s D-line is.
Like I said, everything you gave me was what you thought were Georgia’s issues. WHAT do you know about Mizzou that makes you think any of that will matter? Do you not think Mizzou has some issues too? Why are those not enough to swing it Georgia’s way?
John
August 30th, 2012
4:00 pm
Has Murray beat anyone with a winning record yet?
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
4:23 pm
Mizzou is replacing pretty much thier D-line from last year (which I guess to not have been an SEC type line to begin with). Is that a “question mark”.
They are also replacing Both OGs, a LT, and a TE. on thier O-line. I have a very specific question about that as it relates to our D-line.
Great True freshman WR. But lost the rest of them I think.
FLA DAWG
August 30th, 2012
4:39 pm
Huh?
AltaDawg likes to pull people’s chains and run on to give the impression he knows more than everyone else.
This site is to express an opinion. Leave it to him to ALWAYS argue with someone about someone’s opinion.
Just ignore him. He doesn’t go away but ignore him anyway.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
4:50 pm
Funny how if it’s your opinion, you call that “expressing”. But If I offer mine, you call that “arguing”.
Buy it’s true, I argue with opinions that I disagree with. Sort of the point of a sport banter blog.
do-do
August 30th, 2012
5:34 pm
Charles could not block worth a hoot, He had many holding calls against him that hurt drives.
Dawg Bite
August 30th, 2012
6:14 pm
Let the games begin!! Go DORES!!
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
6:28 pm
While we are offering, is it your opinion that Mizzou will beat Georgia? You seem pretty protective of a Bama fans prediction that they will.
Although, Mizzou will not be a top ten team, and you have said that is the criteria to be a legit opponent. They are more in the category of (or lesser than) UF, Auburn, or tech whom you repeatedly call “cupcakes”.
I promise not to argue. Or better yet, just “ignore” me rather than answer.
icedawg
August 30th, 2012
7:42 pm
I agree. Dawgs go 10-2. They’ll could lose two out of Mizz, SC, UF, AU. If the OL and RB’s get any consistent ground game going they could go 12-0. This is not a heavyweight schedule. A few years ago we had a killer. This one is pretty weak.
COACH B
August 30th, 2012
9:01 pm
Enter your comments here
FLA DAWG
August 30th, 2012
10:46 pm
Alta,
You’re a good sport – regardless of what everyone else says.
Mizzou……………ya know we ought to beat them by 10 or more.
I just have no confidence in Richt and Bobo. The ten win streak against lousy teams of last year was in between double losses against decent teams. Tells me they didn’t improve a bit. I could understand a loss against LSU but not the second half slaughter.
I cannot understand a loss against MSU.
There is no solid consistency in execution, in playcalling in game preparation.
We come back to coaching.
Sure, we should win it but I have no idea if we will. Frankly, I’m drained of energy dragging the anchors of Richt and Bobo as an alumn.
But GO DAWGS!
goat
August 30th, 2012
11:18 pm
if we lose to the lizards this year….I’m going to step calmly into the middle of I-295 in JAX and hope that Halle Berry picks me up and saves me from playing in traffic.
Mobile Dawg
August 30th, 2012
11:59 pm
Motivation lasts about 10 percent of the game. Preparation, conditioning, coaching and execution make up about 75 percent. Old fashioned luck usually makes up the other 15 percent. I’m not prepared to make a call other than if we show up at Mizzou like we did at the dome for Boise, totally unprepared and not knowing what we were up agaisnt, Richt should resign on the spot.
Huh?
August 31st, 2012
1:16 am
Thanks FLA Dawg….I could tell, pretty much right away, that Altamaha was going to argue with everything I said. He asked for reasons why I thought Missouri would beat UGA, and when I gave them to him, he said that the reasons I gave weren’t really reasons. Weird.
AltamahaDawg
August 31st, 2012
7:15 am
No, you gave me reasons that you didn’t like Georgia’s team, in vague and general terms, and thats not what I asked. I asked you what you knew about Mizzou that made you think they were better than (what you don’t like about Georgia).What about those 5 points is worse than some 5 points that apply to Mizzou. I gave you 3 very specific points about them. THAT’s match up points, . Thats game deciding points. I’m sorry, but they are (hypothetically) more motivated and yout think Georgia is an underacheiver is just pure hyperbole. I was looking for a bit more substance.
I repeated and clarified that 3 times. You dodged it 3 times.
Let me try once more: we have all those issue this week as well, and I assume you don’t think Buffalo matches up well enough that it matters What do you know about mizzou specifically that makes you think that is does.
AltamahaDawg
August 31st, 2012
7:20 am
Well actually, Fla dawg. “everybody says” I am a good sport. With some exception from a few folks who are , shall we say, ………..well, a few folks.
But yes Go Dawgs.
UGADawg83
August 31st, 2012
7:22 am
Bill-
Your brother’s opinion; your son’s opinion; how about the opinion of the bag boy at Publix.
FLA DAWG
August 31st, 2012
7:30 am
I believe Mizzou returns about half their players. Last season they were highly talented. This season they have a depth problem but no problem at RB. They are frothing at the mouth to play their first SEC Game so in this particular case motivation is more than 10%. They play hardnose, smashmouth football like we used to in the trench warfare days of run almost every play and pass when you have to.We no longer do that because Richt is an FSU OC passer and not a runner HC.
UGA special teams are highly suspect. D should be good enough to hold Mizzou. Our O Line has performed so poorly that it’s anyone’s guess as so how effective they will run block and pass protect. Last season we had the biggest O Line in all of college AND THE NFL and we stunk the place up.
Our fullbacks cannot run block and our tailbacks fall at the first touch.
Regardless of what others say about Murray I think he is highly talented and if he had a reliable O Line and better OC his numbers would be even better than they are – I assign most fault for the four losses to Richt and Bobo.
Bottomline our HC and OC performance has been less than adequate and in the SEC that means tragedy at best. Mizzou has the advantage in that category.
We’ll probably win the Mizzou game but I don’t think it will be the blowout so many are saying it will be. But we will get a glimpse of our Dawgs tomorrow v Buffalo. Of course that should be a blowout but I am going to look for play execution, how well the team begins the game and finishes the drill. How well are they prepared for this season? We’ll know something of that tomorrow.
LHarding Dawg
August 31st, 2012
8:31 am
Did Vandy get robbed by the great SEC officials or what. Our officials are the weakest part of the SEC.
AltamahaDawg
August 31st, 2012
9:22 am
Hey good job. I like how oyu actually mentioned Mizzou’s actual playing of football. (unlike ?huh).
I’ll phrase my response as simply expressing my opinion, and not argue with your.
My opinion is that “motivation” is at best a wash, and that is never a real factor in the outcomes of games at this level, IMO. Every team we face witll be motivated to beat us. I get that this is a novelty game for them, but I just don’t think that will be on thier minds past the first couple of minutes.
The half that they are returning is a very bif deal. they are basically replacing both lines. Our O-line may have some new faces, but it also has 3 returing guys that are previous starters. As far as we had the “biggest line” last year, I can tell oyu that nobody I even came into contact with considered that. Everybody I know, was more concerned that we had BIg Guard playing out of positions at Tackles. So smaller is not worse IMO. I am stating for the record that our line will be better this year, at least more athletic, and we have a position coach now, Not in his first year.
I think Mizzou was something lile 90th in the country last year in pass defense. I realize they were in a pass happy coference, but even IN that conf. they were average at best. Georgia was top 10 in the nation. We have a very desided advantage in that area, irrespective of suspension.
They were also not that highly ranked agains the run IN a passing conference. georgia was top 10 in the nation in pretty good rushing conference. I’d say as far as defense, georgia is head over heels better. BY far. In everything.
Our kicker is new, but one of the top prospects in the nation. Thier kicker is thier punbter, and he missed about 35% of his FG attempt last year. I’ll take our guys. Our struggles last year were in punt coverage. (KO coverage is a non-factor this year…..and we weren;t that bad last year anyway). ALl we have to do is put bigger, faster player in that they have, and thats taken care of. We HAVE bigger faster players than them.. LSU is a differnt story.
My opinion is that our TB do NOT fall down at first contact. This year. The guys who did do that are gone, or limited. We will see what the FB do, but I personally would wait to see them actually play before declaring that they can’t run block.
I just think some of our personel is different and better in the run game this year.
AltamahaDawg
August 31st, 2012
9:28 am
wow , that was some sloppy typing, even for me.
DrDawg
August 31st, 2012
9:43 am
It all comes down to SC.
CHDawg
August 31st, 2012
10:32 am
DrD, Don’t know if you saw the SC-Vandy game last night, but SC really struggled. I think UF will be our toughest game, by a very large margin. However, last night showed how dumb it is to get too dogmatic about rankings before the season. Maybe Vandy is much better this year, and maybe SC just played poorly. I’m really looking forward to the next two weeks for UGA. We should have a much better idea what we have…
CHDawg
August 31st, 2012
10:37 am
Alt, one other point on our O line. I was looking recently and we have a 5 star, two 4 stars, and two 3 stars starting. A good bit of raw talent out of HS. Theus is very green, but the rest of the line has been at UGA a while. We might be better than most fear….that would be a great surprise!
AltamahaDawg
August 31st, 2012
11:49 am
I don’t havea lot fear or expect a surprise. I just think we pretty much know what they are. As I recall, we were very unsettled on the line this time last year, and made some changes going well into the season………….eventually ended up just playing some guys out of position.
Some of that was brought on with circumstances, and IF we have some injuries , they are going to have to shuffle again. But as of today…..I think we have a better set lineup than we did headed into the Boise game.
PLUS more time with this position coach. PLUS more time in this conditioning program. PLUS more time in this brand new offensive style that took a couple of weeks to get comfortable playing last year.
FLA DAWG
August 31st, 2012
1:39 pm
Alta,
Stats that include the 10 win streak against cupcakes border on meaningless. We’re in agreement on the D. The emotion edge goes to Mizzou – they have to prove themselves in their new conference.
The O Line has performed dismally the last three years and I see nothing that will change so my opinion of our line is based on that.
Our Dawg Team was no better in their last two games than they were in their first two games and that is the bottomline for me. If I had seen improvement I’d write it. For what it’s worth, the D performed magnificently in the first half of the SECC Game. But I recall remarking to a buddy at the end of the second qtr that they were already getting tired and would get rolled in the second half. I had no idea how true my words were until that miserable slaughter began after halftime.
Coarch Ric
September 1st, 2012
11:19 am
Why do I have to use the search function to find this blawg?
Did you do something to someone’s cornflakes, Bill? Why did they take you off of the Sports Page?