Question marks temper season predictions for the Dawgs
How many times will we be able to say this during the 2012 season? (Photo by Olivia King)
Even though I know in advance what he’s going to say, I always get a kick out of asking my brother Jon for his prediction of what sort of season the football Dawgs will have.
Just about every year it’s the same answer: “Undefeated!”
This year, thanks to the amped up preseason ranking Mark Richt’s team is enjoying, Jon isn’t alone in seeing a chance for Georgia to win it all, but the expectations of most fans I’ve heard from are slightly more modest, with the vast majority predicting regular-season records of 11-1 or 10-2 and probably another SEC East title.
That’s the way it generally went when I asked Blawg friends on Facebook for their opinion, though there were a handful of doubters who saw a 9-3 record (or worse). But considering the favorable schedule and all the returning talent, I think anything less than a 10-win regular season would be viewed as a disappointment by many in the Bulldog Nation.
I’m generally pretty conservative in my annual venture out on a limb to make a season prediction. Last year, I went for 9-3 and said I couldn’t quite see the Dawgs getting 10 regular-season wins.
I love being wrong in those situations!
Anyway, in looking at the 2012 season, I’ve been fluctuating between 11-1 and 10-2. I think if they get past Missouri, 11-1 looks pretty reasonable. And if they get past Missouri and South Carolina, I think the odds increase dramatically that they’d enter the conference championship game undefeated.
But I finally decided 10-2 looks more likely, with the most probable losses being to South Carolina and either Mizzou or the Gators, though if the Dawgs don’t play their best they could come up short against a Brian Van Gorder Auburn defense, too. Depending on who the Gamecocks lose to, that still could be good enough to put Georgia back in the SEC championship game, though.
Here’s why I see Georgia with a couple of losses this season:
Aside from the possible impact of suspensions for the Missouri game, I think the team will be fine defensively, assuming the offense doesn’t sputter and keep the D out on the field too long, as it did in last year’s bowl game.
But like my son (who also sees the Dogs going 10-2), I’m concerned about the offense. The Dawgs have a young and not very deep offensive line combined with running backs who are either young or not super talented. So, running the ball could be hard against really good defenses and D-lines (as in the games against LSU and Michigan State last year).
Between the 20-yard lines, Mike Bobo is a master, but inside the red zone it gets trickier. That’s where the Georgia offense worries me, especially with Orson Charles gone as Aaron Murray’s safety valve.
And what worries me even more is special teams. We saw last year what a difference they can make. This season, not only do the Dawgs have an unproven freshman stepping in as placekicker, but I’m not convinced Richt has done enough to fix the problem. There’s still no one person in charge of the special teams. Also, reports from players are that more time has not been allotted to special teams in practices, though there’s been more talk about the need to get better and more starters are likely to play on coverage teams. Will that be enough? I’m skeptical.
Overall, the Dawgs are talented enough to beat every team on their schedule, but I believe the question marks about the OL and special teams loom large enough to derail brother Jon’s prediction.
How about you? What regular-season record do you see Georgia finishing with this year?
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180 comments Add your comment
Snoop Dawg
August 30th, 2012
9:26 am
Smarticus, you are on the money, my friend. All these loyal Dawgs are unfortunately inebriated with da Preacha Man’s powereful Koolade just like before every season.
Then reality hits. I was at the Georgia Dome last year when reality hit. Richt and Bobo had absolutely not prepared the team to play Boise State. That smackdown was not an enjoyable thing to behold, especially in those stupid uniforms knowing that half the people in the country were watching the spectacle.
The zombies will never place the blame on Richt because he has that Bible Belt teflon.
So just get ready for another year of the same dung that we have been seeing since Richt arrived in Athens.
old dog
August 30th, 2012
9:35 am
I do hope this is the year….if not, we need to take a long, hard look. That being said, I just saw the new helmets Tech is supposed to wear in the VT game. As we all know, new uniforms did not help us last year agains Boise State, as our o-line got man-handled. Tech’s helmets are uglier than Bruce willis’s daughter “Scout!”
old dog
August 30th, 2012
9:36 am
I guess I should retract that….even a Tech helmet could not be that ugly………
Joe
August 30th, 2012
9:40 am
Bobo????? a Master between the red zones????? Wow!!!! That is some real Cool Aid.
Jville Dawg
August 30th, 2012
10:18 am
I know that the past 20 yrs have been rough going against the gators, and trust me as a Dawg fan who’s lived in Jax, FL for the past 16yrs I understand the frustration and disapointment as well as any Dawg fan, but I just don’t get why everyone is so concerned with them this year. Granted they will field a very good defense, but their offense will be horrible. I think everyone needs to quit drinking the gator-ade ESPN included. They have a 2nd yr coach that’s an obvious head case, a new offensive coordinator and a bunch of Urban Meyer’s spread option leftovers that don’t fit the new offense. The other thing is enough with the in the players head stuff.. We rotate players every 4 years and the bulk of this team’s starters are 1-1 with the loss coming in overtime, so they’re not scared of the gators. Everything is cyclical and they are on the down turn. They were 6-6 last year (7-6 with the bowl win) and when you look at their schedule they’re staring down the barrel of another 5-6 loss season. Their defense will keep them in games, but they will lose a lot of close games in the 4th qtr because their offense is going to have a lot of 3 and outs which is going to tire the defense. They don’t have a qb that can throw the ball, they don’t have any prolific receivers, Jeff Demps is gone. Not to mention no bye week for them, and they will have to play a physical SC team the week before.
They will most likely lose @ Tex A&M, @ Tenn(which worries me much more than FL and will be better than people think), LSU, SC, UGA, and FSU, not to mention Vandy or Missouri could jump up and get them. Don’t get me wrong we have our own question marks but FL has WAY more than we do.
The reason UF has been so dominate is FSU and Miami have been down, and they’ve been able to have their pick of Florida talent, but FSU is back to beating out UF for some of the state’s more high profile players, and Miami finally has a decent coach in place so give them a yr or two and they’ll be back. The UF ride is over, and I predict Muschamp will be on the hotseat by mid-season and likely out of job by the end of 2013. Foley isn’t going to let that program slide too long.
Jville Dawg
August 30th, 2012
10:22 am
On the “no bye week” comment I meant no bye before they play us. Just wanted to get that out there before some poindexter points out the obvious fact they do have one.
GATiger
August 30th, 2012
11:01 am
J’ville, I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the Gators. They have some pretty stout young studs on defense, especially up front. If their DBs can perform, I look for them to be much improved on that side of the ball. Offensively, I don’t know what to expect from them. They have good skill players, but lots of questions up front. The new OC, third in 3 years, could bring better performance or more confusion.
old dog
August 30th, 2012
11:02 am
@Jville Dawg,
I agree with you……we better not take the Tennessee game for granted. I think they are gonna suprise some folks this year.
Skokie Dog
August 30th, 2012
11:12 am
9-3: We’ll lose one game due to botched plays by special teams (do you REALLY believe that the coaches have “fixed” this problem again this offseason), one more when our team shows up unprepared or takes a quarter or half off, and a third to a team that outplays us. And no, I don’t expect any of these losses will be to the cupcakes on our nonconference schedule (including GT).
FLA DAWG
August 30th, 2012
11:18 am
My guess is 9 – 3 and if we get to the SECC Game we lose again.
Why you ask?
Cupcake opponent wins, legit opponent loses because of Richt and Bobo.
This is shaping up like last year. We were slaughtered in the SECC game.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
11:31 am
Damngoodawg….Yeah, I am dead on the money…respectFULLY
GR
August 30th, 2012
11:56 am
1st mountain- missou
if we win
2nd mountain- sc
if we win- great chance of 12-0 into sec title game. why? momentum takes over auburn has ability to win, but also enough problems not to win.
uf- a war, but they are not back yet.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
12:03 pm
So if its like last year, you will predict each SEC game as a loss, then deminish each victory as they happen?
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
12:08 pm
then diminish it.
UGA fan...not fanatic
August 30th, 2012
12:19 pm
Bill. young or not, you might be the only one outside of the coaches and haters who thinks they (Gurley and Marshall)are NOT super talented.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
12:25 pm
That’s not what he said. He already corrected the last guy.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
12:48 pm
UGA goes 9-3. They lose to Missouri…split the SC and FL games, and then lose 1 more that they probably shouldn’t. Will 9-3 get them back to Atlanta? Probably. SC’s SEC schedule is much tougher, so UGA probably backs in like last year.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
12:52 pm
What about Mizzou do you know about that leads you to think they beat the Dawgs?
Kyle
August 30th, 2012
1:24 pm
Let’s see….
Everyone stays healthy and Murray doesnt give points to opponents: 10-2 (24-20 UT, 17-14 Carolina)
Murray makes stupid decisions and give points: 9-3 (28-20 Auburn)
Murray makes stupid mistake/give points- special teams a disaster like last year 8-4 (eithir Miz or the Jackettes upset)
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
1:38 pm
Mizzou, Nothing? And you seems so sure of it.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
1:59 pm
AltamahaDawg…I guess you are referring to me.
What makes any football fan SURE about any prediction they make? Nobody has a crystal ball. And, I am not the only one saying that UGA could/should/will lost to Missouri. Could UGA win? sure….do I think they will? no. Reasons? Several…
1. The game is at Missouri…and to say that they will be motivated is an understatement. All they have heard is how hard it’s going to be playing big boy football in the SEC. They will be ready to go.
2. Suspensions…key players out for UGA (or so we think). Whether Richt suspends Rambo and Ogletree or not really doesn’t matter. If he does, it certainly will hurt UGA’s chances. If he doesn’t, then I think it will effect the team in other ways. Richt has a lot riding on this decision, including his principles.
3. UGA has big question marks on the offensive line, running back and in the kicking game….all three hallmarks of great teams. Fans love pass happy high scoring games, but real football fans understand where games are won and lost…in the ability to run, protect the quarterback, stopping the run, and in the kicking game. So far, UGA gets a high grade for only 1 of those 4.
4. UGA has a history of losing a game(s) that they should probably win. This game has all the ear-marks of that kind of game.
5. Lofty Expectations…When UGA is predicted to be an elite team, they have a history of under-achieving.
6. How good is UGA really? Last year, UGA won 10 games against poor teams. When they played good teams, they lost. I haven’t seen anything yet to convince me that this team has gone from average to great in one offseason.
DIT
August 30th, 2012
2:03 pm
10-2
O-Line will let us down against the better defenses. Don’t see us winning @ sc. Take your pick on the other loss(except GT) We will find a game that we should have won but did not.
However, prove me wrong Dawgs! My feelings would not be hurt if you are undefeated going into the SEC CG. Hey, one can dream!
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
2:15 pm
Thats not really an answer to what I asked. Other than its at thier stadium, you are listing things that have nothing to do with Mizzou? Just some generic preseason points, that would apply to any game.
BTW< the suspension are not a decision. Thsts been detemined al long time ago, just not released to the paper yet.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
2:22 pm
AltamahaDawg…the only points that I would consider to be somewhat generic might be # s 4 and 5. However, they still play a role in why I think UGA will lose to Missouri. You might not like what I said, but simply dismissing it shows that I probably did a better job at answering your question than you would have liked.
As far as suspension go…Several other media outles have reported that it appears as though the suspensions have not been decided yet. Even Bill King made the statement that the rumor is that Rambo and Ogletree might not be suspended after all (in one of his beloved Junkyard Dawg articles). Richt certainly has no problem announcing some suspensions and/or no-suspensions (Smith, etc.), so why is he being so tight-lipped about Rambo and Ogletree? You can say it’s to keep Missouri guessing, and you might even believe that. However, a lot of other people are questioning it.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
2:25 pm
But I would counter with :
1. Its also UGA first SEC game of the year, and I think the visitors get just as pumped up in the SEC. We have a lot more at stake than they do, and I think the effect of emotions of some novelty game is pretty much gone a few series into the game. Its can also work against them IF things don’t go well early.
2. The suspension are a done deal. the coaches and player already know. Its factored in. Rambo/Tree was not going to make or break this defense.We are pretty deep at both spots. We also have a decided advantage at the various other positions over Mizzou, IMO.
3. I actually do not think those things are “question marks”. I think we pretty much know what they are. The question is really, IF they are better than the tamped down expectations. I can’t see them being far worse than we think.I believe those elements are already factored in and yes the passing game WILL matter.
4, 5, and 6 are just banality and fluff.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
2:29 pm
NO, Nobody has reported that the suspension have not been decided. they ALL have reported that UGA is handling the reporting differntly. And there was direct quotes from McGarity why THESE are different than the otehr 2 guys. Obviously they know with 2 days left who is not going to play. or With 2 weeks. or With 2 months. Knew 6 months ago when the facts were in, is most likely when they knew.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
2:31 pm
AltamahaDawg…
1. We’ll call that one even. I think Missouri’s motivation of playing in their first SEC game will be more than UGA playing what they believe to be a second tier SEC West team. But oh well…
2. http://blogs.ajc.com/junkyard-blawg/2012/07/18/sounds-like-spurrier-might-be-a-little-scared-of-lsu/
That is the link to Bill King suggesting that the only player that will be suspended is Sanders Commings. To say that “the suspensions are a done deal” is disingenious at best. So, like you did me, where are your facts?
3. Even Bill King pointed out that the areas I mentioned were question marks. You can disagree, and that fine. However, again, I am not the only one suggesting it.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
2:35 pm
But, if you are offering the opinion that Rambo and Tree might actually play after all, HOW is that a negative for UGA’s chances of beating Mizzou?
DIT
August 30th, 2012
2:38 pm
“I don’t don’t the heavy stuff will come down for quite some time. I think we can still play.”
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
2:41 pm
he and otehr call (o-line, RB, Kickers) are “question marks” in the big picture of the season, as far as championship caliber team.
NOBODY expects the line to be outstanding the first part of the year, so going to Mizzou, they are not a question mark. Unless the guestion is, are they worse than expected. I seriously doubt that. if you want to say that UGA has a poor running game, or the kickers arent very good..fine. THATS a concern for Mizzou. fair enough. But don’t say you think we lose to them, because those elements might not be a lot better than what everybody(reasonably) knows them to be.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
2:47 pm
Bill was saying its not a done deal that they ARE. As in, they might be, they might not. WE don’t know. We think they are, but BILLsay’s that not a done deal, as far as WE know that that are. He’s not saying that nobody know one way or the other.
NOBODY think’s that it has not been decided at the institutional level.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
2:48 pm
And how again is it a negative if they DO play? Our coaches would have faked themselves out?
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
2:51 pm
If the oline, running game, and kicking game are question marks in the “big picture of the season,” then why doesn’t it apply to Missouri? Isn’t that part of the season? If it’s a question mark, then it’s a question mark for every game. You are really grasping at straws there.
AltmahaDawg…I know you to be smarter than your post. You say that “NOBODY expects the line to be outstanding the first part of the year, so going to Mizzou, they are not a question mark.” What? The Missouri game is the 2nd game of the year. You are trying to make the point that a question mark only comes in to play if a unit is better or worse than what people expect them to be. That is weak. You asked me why I thought UGA would lose, and I pointed to those things. BECAUSE, like others have pointed out, those are areas that people think could be of concern.
Come on…if you diagree with the reasons that I gave you for why I think UGA will lose, then fair enough. But trying to act like I didn’t give you any is weak.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
2:53 pm
AltamahaDawg….you said it was a done deal. You just admitted that Bill King said that nobody knows. So where is your facts? What proof do you have?
I said that they might be suspended, or might not. You said that it was a done deal. Prove it.
OldFan
August 30th, 2012
2:54 pm
8-4. Loses to SC and FL. One more loss for bad special teams play. Last loss an upset by well coached and prepared team that gets big lucky breaks. UGA still a couple years away from being a great team, but even then, not sure they’ll be an elite team.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
2:55 pm
Mizzou is a SEC East team, not West so its a division game, first of all. I think you are underestimating the Georgia players motivation and intelligence to say they would think of it as just another 2nd tier game. They see it as a must win, I am certain.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
2:55 pm
If Richt decides not to suspend Rambo and Ogletree, then he is sending a message to the rest of the team that he has different rules for different players. As many other UGA fans have pointed out on this site, team chemistry is HUGE. Division among players, or players to the coaching staff does not fly.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
2:57 pm
AltamahaDawg…sorry for the typo. Yes Missouri in the East. I am certain that UGA will be motiviated…but they have been playing in the SEC for decades. This is Missouri’s first game as a member of the SEC, so they want to prove to everybody that they belong. It is not a stretch to say that Missouri will have a little more motiviation.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
2:58 pm
NO, NO, NO.
I just said that Bill King did NOT say nobody knows. He said the fans don’t know.
Email Bill King and ask him if he actually thinks for one second that the coaching staff of Georgia does not know who is suspended yet for the SEC opener in 2 weeks.
Asked directly about a month ago Mark Richt said, and I quote “Do I know?” “yea, I know”.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
2:59 pm
I think its a stretch to think that will translate into anything the determines the outcome of the game.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
3:01 pm
And let me just put your point to rest. There is no way on God’s Green Earth, that Richt is going to make a decision on Rambo’s punishment that would remotely send the wrong signal to the rest of the team and destroy thier chemistry.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
3:03 pm
So you meant to say that you think Mizzou’s motivation will be more than Georgia’s just playing what they think is a second tier DIVISION game, that could end their stated goal for the year?
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
3:05 pm
Bill King states:
“Rumors are circulating that Sanders Commings will be the only Bulldog suspended for Georgia’s game with Mizzou. Since the original report on impending multi-game suspensions for Bacarri Rambo and Alec Ogletree was itself little more than a rumor coming from a high school coach and was never confirmed by anyone at UGA, we’re now dealing with rumors about rumors. How about we wait until Mark Richt actually has something to say about this. ….”
ANYBODY reading that post understands what Bill is saying….that is, that NOBODY KNOWS! And Altamaha, you know it. Trying to turn it and twist it and somehow beyond hope make it sound like something else is a farce.
Does Bill think that a decision has been made? Probably…Does Mark Richt know the answer? I’m sure. The point is, we don’t know what the answer is. And if we don’t, you certainly don’t. Again, I simply said that they might play or might not play. You said FOR CERTAIN, that they won’t. Again, prove it.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
3:09 pm
on motivation….
Yes. It always been understood, Altamaha, that often times a team that is predicted to win can have less motivation than the underdog. Since neither team has played a game yet, they both at least one of the same goals (since every team starts the year off with the goal of winning all of their games). So, both teams will be motivated to keep that goal in tact. Now, since Missouri is the underdog, and since it’s their first game in the SEC, then yes, I think they will be even more amped.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
3:11 pm
BS. I NEVER said that. I said I know THEY KNOW. (so your thesis that the unknown was working against us)
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
3:12 pm
AltamahaDawg….last year, as we now know, Crowell tested postive the week of the Florida game, but his suspension wasn’t announced until AFTER the Florida game. Now, I’m not saying Richt did anything crooked, but I am saying that it raised a bunch of eyebrows.
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
3:15 pm
AltamahaDawg…
You said…”the suspensions are a done deal.”
Now, if you are not going to at least stand behind what you said, then I have inclination to continue this debate with you. I am okay with people having different opinions, but I am not going to waste my time with someone who lies about what they said.
AltamahaDawg
August 30th, 2012
3:16 pm
Sure, and I can just as easily say that Mizzou is going to come out tight, and overly wound up, and more likely to panic when it goes poorly.
Bottom line: Georgia has more at stake, and everybody knows it. So if “motivation” is a factor, it’s a wash.
CHDawg
August 30th, 2012
3:16 pm
Huh?, where is the proof that Crowell tested positive before the game? You are saying that you know for a fact that the lab did the work, testing split samples on two separate occasions, and the coaches were officially notified of the results before the game? What is your source for that statement?
Huh?
August 30th, 2012
3:22 pm
CHDawg…I did’t say that “the coaches were officially notified before the game.” I even said that “I am not saying Richt did anything crooked…”
What I did say, is that it was reported that Crowell was tested the week of the Florida game and failed the test. The timing of the test, and the announcement raised eyebrows in the media. Dan Patrick talked about it, Paul Finebaum talked about it, as did ESPN. Nobody said that they had proof, they just said that it was a bit peculiar.