Question marks temper season predictions for the Dawgs
How many times will we be able to say this during the 2012 season? (Photo by Olivia King)
Even though I know in advance what he’s going to say, I always get a kick out of asking my brother Jon for his prediction of what sort of season the football Dawgs will have.
Just about every year it’s the same answer: “Undefeated!”
This year, thanks to the amped up preseason ranking Mark Richt’s team is enjoying, Jon isn’t alone in seeing a chance for Georgia to win it all, but the expectations of most fans I’ve heard from are slightly more modest, with the vast majority predicting regular-season records of 11-1 or 10-2 and probably another SEC East title.
That’s the way it generally went when I asked Blawg friends on Facebook for their opinion, though there were a handful of doubters who saw a 9-3 record (or worse). But considering the favorable schedule and all the returning talent, I think anything less than a 10-win regular season would be viewed as a disappointment by many in the Bulldog Nation.
I’m generally pretty conservative in my annual venture out on a limb to make a season prediction. Last year, I went for 9-3 and said I couldn’t quite see the Dawgs getting 10 regular-season wins.
I love being wrong in those situations!
Anyway, in looking at the 2012 season, I’ve been fluctuating between 11-1 and 10-2. I think if they get past Missouri, 11-1 looks pretty reasonable. And if they get past Missouri and South Carolina, I think the odds increase dramatically that they’d enter the conference championship game undefeated.
But I finally decided 10-2 looks more likely, with the most probable losses being to South Carolina and either Mizzou or the Gators, though if the Dawgs don’t play their best they could come up short against a Brian Van Gorder Auburn defense, too. Depending on who the Gamecocks lose to, that still could be good enough to put Georgia back in the SEC championship game, though.
Here’s why I see Georgia with a couple of losses this season:
Aside from the possible impact of suspensions for the Missouri game, I think the team will be fine defensively, assuming the offense doesn’t sputter and keep the D out on the field too long, as it did in last year’s bowl game.
But like my son (who also sees the Dogs going 10-2), I’m concerned about the offense. The Dawgs have a young and not very deep offensive line combined with running backs who are either young or not super talented. So, running the ball could be hard against really good defenses and D-lines (as in the games against LSU and Michigan State last year).
Between the 20-yard lines, Mike Bobo is a master, but inside the red zone it gets trickier. That’s where the Georgia offense worries me, especially with Orson Charles gone as Aaron Murray’s safety valve.
And what worries me even more is special teams. We saw last year what a difference they can make. This season, not only do the Dawgs have an unproven freshman stepping in as placekicker, but I’m not convinced Richt has done enough to fix the problem. There’s still no one person in charge of the special teams. Also, reports from players are that more time has not been allotted to special teams in practices, though there’s been more talk about the need to get better and more starters are likely to play on coverage teams. Will that be enough? I’m skeptical.
Overall, the Dawgs are talented enough to beat every team on their schedule, but I believe the question marks about the OL and special teams loom large enough to derail brother Jon’s prediction.
How about you? What regular-season record do you see Georgia finishing with this year?
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180 comments Add your comment
MA English 1975
August 29th, 2012
2:09 pm
Can we PLEASE stop talking about Herschel? He is not going to be reincarnated! Let the freshmen prove themselves without the spectre of Herschel over their shoulders.
All Roads go through Florida
August 29th, 2012
2:13 pm
It appears as though Georgia will be ready and hyped for Spurrier but is underestimating a Florida team that has persistently dominated them the past decade and an Auburn team with players that still remember how to win a National Championship. Georgia may beat Mizzou, SC, and get arrogant and get beat by FL and Auburn. Beware of Muschamp and Chizik.
LogicalUS
August 29th, 2012
2:18 pm
NO CHANCE AT ALL that UGA beats SC in Columbia…NONE. They also lose one or two others of Mizzou\UF\UT\AUB.
So they will again be rooting for the SEC West to knock off SC to back them into the SEC East again….
Hope they held on to their SEC WEST pom-poms…Geaux Tigers is the new UGA cheer.
bill arp
August 29th, 2012
2:42 pm
10-2. With one loss coming from a missed FG by the true freshman to win a game at the horn, and the other loss coming from A Murrays 4 turnovers(2 Int’s and 2 fumbles) in one game.
As far as which two games we lose, it could be anyone ranging from UT, UF, USC, Misery, or AU..
Mobile Dawg
August 29th, 2012
2:43 pm
We have the talent to go undefeated. What’s different about this team this year, they seem to be more cohesive. The wild card is are the coaches any better than the average group they’ve been? Time will tell. I’m not ready to make a prediction except we could be anywhere in the regular season from 8-4 to 12-0.
Nick
August 29th, 2012
2:50 pm
John Kasay, Billy Bennett & Blair Walsh all looked pretty good as freshmen kickers.
I’m just sayin’.
Also, I feel like with all the focus going toward Missouri & USC as far as losing, I think if they do lose one or two it will come from elsewhere, not even thought of now.
bill arp
August 29th, 2012
2:54 pm
Oh, the loss we get from Murray’s TO’s, it’ll be blamed on Coach Bobo though.
edumacated
August 29th, 2012
3:26 pm
Sorry, but they are going to have to show me something before I get on this crazy 11-1 and 10-2 bandwagon I see rolling out. Until then, I think 3 losses is more probable. If we had to play LSU or Bama, it would be 4.
Dawg for Life
August 29th, 2012
3:30 pm
Honestly, I never liked Orson Charles. He was a great tight end, don’t get me wrong, but he was great in the spread situation. He is best used split out, and as a recieving threat. He wasn’t really big enough to block the really good LB’s. Georgia has and will be the best out of the I formation. Aurthor Lynch is 270+ lbs. He is big enough to handle a lot of DE let alone LB’s. I think the addition of size at this position and a hard hitting fullback, causes UGA’s run game to skyrocket, which in turn will make the play action passing game unstoppable. With Murray’s experience, and a very tallented evenly distributed group of recievers, UGA’s going to be undefeated going into the SECCG. But thats only if we don’t have any injuries on the O-Line. I like this line better than last years. I think they all started about the same time, so they have some continuity, which is what you really want in a good line. That, andI think they have taken to the idea that people think they are the weak point on this team. They have something to prove, and will hit hard. They will make mistakes, but will be a very good tight nit group by the time we play SC. Look for the screen game to be effective early in the year and move away from it later.
truedawg
August 29th, 2012
3:32 pm
12-0 then drop the game to Bama but it’ll be close. Close enough to have some calling for a rematch. Dawgs will go one to destroy “choke-lahoma” and Bama will play USC. Dawgs will finish 2nd in the final polls. GATA!!!
A. Bishop
August 29th, 2012
4:09 pm
I really feel like everyone is giving mizzou too much credit. They are falling apart as we speak. I think we will squeak by in South carolina as well.
A. Bishop
August 29th, 2012
4:11 pm
I love all the trolls posing as UGA fans on this blog.
Dawg for Life
August 29th, 2012
4:18 pm
No kidding A. Bishop.They are mostly ignorant. I understand about tempering expectations, but most of their negativity is unwarranted.
Dawg for Life
August 29th, 2012
4:20 pm
Dawgs win all but maybe one. If we can get past the SC game, which I think will be really close, I think we have a 50/50 shot at winning the SECCG then the National Title.
SSIgator
August 29th, 2012
4:30 pm
Dawg for Life -
First post:
“I understand about tempering expectations”
Followed by:
“I think we have a 50/50 shot at winning the SECCG then the National Title”
_______________________
I don’t know which is funnier; that you truly believe what you wrote or that you truly did not understand the contradiction of your message. Anywa,y thanks for giving us a good laugh to end the day on.
G-Dawg
August 29th, 2012
4:49 pm
“Anyway thanks for giving us a good laugh to end the day on”
Feeling is mutual with your garbage as well!!
Angus
August 29th, 2012
4:50 pm
1. Talent
UGA is the only team in the nation to have all 6 units ranked in the top 5 nationally: QB, RB, WR, DLINE, LB, DB. This team is LOADED with talent everywhere. Only Oregon is close.
2. Schedule
UGA has the right schedule to win it all, facing only 1 top 10 team, where LSU, Bama, Ark, SC, UF all face 3 top 10 teams. Mizzou is the 2nd toughest game because it comes early, the suspensions and inexperience at oline and lack of production a te and rb.
3. Turnover Margin
This is where UGA drops out of the conversation. UGA has had a negative turnover magin against ranked teams in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. This is due to Murray’s poor decision making committing 8 turnovers in 4 games vs. ranekd teams in 2011 and the defense not forcing enough turnovers in big games. So since UGA can’t fix this issue, it will cost them a National Championship.
UGA will once again beat itself.
LSU, SC, Mich St, it happened all 3 games.
Angus
August 29th, 2012
4:53 pm
Bill, 10-2 is a fair assessment. Gonna lose 2 of 4 to Mizzou, SC, UF, or Auburn. And it will be due to the turnover margin AGAIN.
Same for post-season games, self destruction, and self sabotage is the UGA mantra.
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
August 29th, 2012
4:56 pm
I really wish people would stop coming on here talking about winning a national title
A coaching staff that cant beat a top 15 team in 4 years and doesnt have the belief in their team to go for it on 4th and inches against UCF; a team that has never done anything significant in Div I football is not coaching a team to a national title
Get a clue and lay of the bong
MoMo
August 29th, 2012
5:03 pm
Georgia will go 12-0, I dont see any team can beat us until the SEC championship game. look at last season, we opened with Boise and then we outplayed South Carolina in a loss(south carolina scored 24 points off turn overs). every team in the SEC has major peoblems, Georgia has its share however the odds are better this season. the toughest games will be against south carolina and Florida, but I think Georgia will be vectorious in both. go dawgs!!!!
CHDawg
August 29th, 2012
5:10 pm
Tire, I think you are discounting the players too much. Players and team chemistry are the key. Coaching is important, but great players make the difference. Look at Auburn in ‘09. I watched Joe Cox, King and Ealey whip Gene’s boys on CSS the other day. Cam shows up, along with the maturation of a few others, and almost the same staff whips us and everyone else they faced! Then last year, we blew them out. Players win championships. The coaches enable and empower them. BTW, I think our players are top-notch this year, but we’ll have to wait and see how top they are.
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
August 29th, 2012
5:11 pm
LOL
We played Boise
Wow we sure have fallen we say oooh we had to play Boise
Give me a break
UGA isnt going 12-0 with this coaching staff
ARdawg
August 29th, 2012
5:15 pm
Dawg for Life
It’s not going to take much for this OL to be better than last years
ARdawg
August 29th, 2012
5:17 pm
Flat Tire!!
Still your usual cheery, upbeat, positive self I see
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
August 29th, 2012
5:19 pm
CHDawg
This coaching staff has had the talent since Richt has been here
More players have gone to the NFL than any other SEC school during Richts tenure
This coaching cannot make game winning decisions
Michigan St,, Aub during their championship run, Arkansas, Colorado, LSU games that these teams made adjustments that this coaching staff had no answer for
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
August 29th, 2012
5:22 pm
ARDawg
You mean my realistic I live in the real world self and refuse to live in delusion land
Yep thats me
BYSTANDER
August 29th, 2012
5:22 pm
momo…..agree with you. As a person that studies football, i see these people on hear speaking from their heart or hatred for Georgia. I live in Texas and don’t read a lot on SEC football here naturally. I do however study all DIV 1 teams extensively. Georgia is set up to win it all. I think the deciding factor is team unity and determination. The Bulldogs will surprise a LOT of people, especially the pundits on ESPN, with their two darlings of USC and Alabama. The two coaches (Richt and Grantham) know exactly what they are doing and people who want them dismissed are really idiots, or simply jealous or looking for banter here on this blog. The Georgia team is more talented, physical and skilled than anyone on their schedule and do NOT expect slip ups or let downs from anyone. Hold your head BULLDOG fans, this is YOUR year….God luck to you!
441North
August 29th, 2012
5:24 pm
Have you been injured in an accident, and need legal help ?
SSIgator
August 29th, 2012
5:37 pm
BYSTANDER -
“The two coaches (Richt and Grantham) know exactly what they are doing”
___________________
Since you are a student, were you in the same “Cutting Edge Football” class that Richt was in? He has been at UGA eleven years now. Is this the year that he is going to show people that he “knows exactly” what he is doing. A while back he said “I know what the he!! I am doing” but that proved to be a false claim. Meanwhile, 1980 gets further and further in the rear view mirror.
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
August 29th, 2012
5:49 pm
BYSTANDER
Richt knows what he is doing?
You study teams extensively?
Really
LOL
Did you know UGA hasnt beaten a top 15 team since 2008
Hasnt beaten a top 10 team in 5 years
All while being in the top 5 in putting recruits in the NFL
My, my, my
August 29th, 2012
6:15 pm
UGA shall fair well…as long as they don’t by into alot of the negatives surrounding them…they know what time it is (look at the sacrifices made by some of them – by remaining one more)…win, lose, or draw – leave it ALL on the field…I for one do not look past any on our schedule, but I feel more concerned about Auburn the most (they are just a hard nosed team that matches up well with us) and Mizz (due to the unknown)…UF and UT will be better, but I believe we tip the balance with USC (in a favorable outcome)…Prediction = that the Dawgs come hungry and humble, giving it everything that they have…Let the Dawg Days Begin. Matthew 6:33
Juiceman
August 29th, 2012
7:15 pm
I’ll see all of you in Miami when the Dawgs run the table this year. Something very special is brewing in Athens. You better believe it.
Sgt Pepper
August 29th, 2012
7:45 pm
Let’s assume the best team we play this year is SCar. Would you rather have the Dawg’s defense or SCar’s defense? Would you trade the Dawg’s offense for SCar’s offense? UGA should be favored in every regular season game this year for a reason. This doesn’t mean they won’t hand over a game like they did to SCar last year but anything less than 11-1 should be a great disappointment to every fan. Looking at the Missouri game it’s hard to imagine them coming within 20 points. The two caveats to this optimism is our tendency to, at times, play down to the level of our competition (I put this on the coaches), and the lack of depth on the o-line. If we successfully manage these two challenges there is no reason we don’t go 12-0.
Pcola-dawg
August 29th, 2012
7:58 pm
Funny how florida fans have no insight regarding their own misery
Huh?
August 29th, 2012
7:59 pm
How long are UGA fans going to talk about the SC from last year? All I hear is “we beat ourselves.” and “we gave that game away” and “we gave them 24 points…” Of course, it’s not different than all the other times UGA loses I guess (same thing can be said for past losses to LSU, Mich St, etc.)
All teams occasionally win a game they should lose, and lose a game they should win. Get over it already. Listen up UGA fans…you can’t get into your “go back in time” machine and fix all of the mistakes that your team makes, then just change the score.
WestOfAthens
August 29th, 2012
9:06 pm
10~2 Loss to Carolina (3 straight?) Florida (Because it’s…well… Florida)
flGator
August 29th, 2012
9:06 pm
Florida will beat the brakeshoes off of georga this year, have no doubt. Your O-line will wilt in the face of our front 7, Murray may well complete more passes to Gators than dogs. I don’t blame you for dreaming about 11-1 or 12-0 but I would say 9-3 would be more realistic. georgia just ain’t that good.
ClockWerks
August 29th, 2012
10:09 pm
Maybe the defense will rise up against Mizzou, South Carolina, Florida and Auburn and hold them all under 30 points.
Fact is, when the opponent scored 33 or more, we went 0-4 in 2011, gave up 35, 45, 42, and 33 against Boise, South Carolina, LSU, and Mich St., when the opponent was held to 32 or less points, we went 10-0.
We need the red zone defense to show up this year. Need some big time stops at the end of games in big games. Need to hold opponents in big games to under 30 points.
The UGA defense will be measured by 4 games:
Mizzou
South Carolina
Florida
Auburn
Then the SEC Champ.
Then the Bowl game.
Nobody is impressed by shutting down Buffalo.
SSIgator
August 29th, 2012
10:15 pm
ARdawg -
August 29th, 2012 – 1:10 pm
SSI – “Besides the target on the backs of UGA “just because”,
_________________
Don’t know how I missed this earlier, but it is worth comment. You and I are not THAT much different in age. Don’t be too proud too have your eyes examined. Those are not “target” symbols on the backs of UGA – they are inmate numbers of the local correctional facility. A common error. We have the same problem at UF from time to time.
damngoodawg
August 29th, 2012
10:31 pm
Hey Roll Tide ROLL! I think Saban is ducking us. We’ve won 3 out off the last 4.
damngoodawg
August 29th, 2012
10:36 pm
Hey SSigator, don’t you think for a moment that Fla doesn’t have the same problems; Urban left a mess at your pristine school and a lot of stuff happened that never will see the light of day. The difference is that UGA has a much stricter set of policies/penalties than any other SEC school and YOU KNOW IT.
SSIgator
August 29th, 2012
10:39 pm
Hey GooGoo Dawg -
Obviously you only selectivly read my post. Nothing new there.
damngoodawg
August 29th, 2012
10:44 pm
GooGoo Dawg? Smile when you call me that, padna….you might hurt my feelings and I know you wouldn’t want that.
GB's Hamburgers
August 29th, 2012
11:21 pm
We’ll lose to Missouri, SC, Fla, Auburn and Tech. Ok maybe we’ll win one of those. So, 8-4. We will again have the players .. we always do. But special teams, conditioning, coaching will lead to the unnecessary losses.
Huh?
August 29th, 2012
11:47 pm
damngoodawg…UGA has a stricter set of policies/penalties than any other SEC school?
I am so sick of hearing that MYTH…UGA AND KY have the same policy regarding a 1 game suspension for the 1st use of drugs. Other schools have a 3 strikes and you’re out policy, others don’t. Other schools, further still, have tougher penalties for 2nd offense and so on. The point is this….it doesn’t matter WHAT your policy is, if the players won’t do drugs to begin with.
Last year Crowell failed a drug test, then surprisingly played in the FL game. Of course, we didn’t find out until after the fact. This year, Richt hasn’t even announced the suspensions of Rambo and Ogletree. Might want to hold the chest pounding until Richt decides. If those two play, then Richt and UGA are no better than anyone else….and worse than some.
sprouse27
August 30th, 2012
5:08 am
Love watching the games but don’t expect the Dawgs to do much better than 9-3. Too many loose ends to win more than that. By most accounts Florida and Tenn are improving and won’t be the weak SEC East sisters they were last year. This will tighten up the East again, but winning the East to get stomped in Atlanta is something akin to kissing your cousin. Fun to watch, but all the predictions of great things are just too much koolaid.
87dawg
August 30th, 2012
7:25 am
Honestly, I could see us going undefeated but I still expect 1 loss. We just find ways to do that for some reason.
And all this nonsense about florida beating us is, well, nonsense. Seems folks forget that we STILL own them in the overall. It has nothing to do with the school or the team, rather it has to do with who is at the head. I hate him, but spurrier is a great coach. And he loves nothing more than beating the Dawgs. That’s why they piled up wins; because he really, really wanted to beat us a lot more than our coaches wanted to beat them. Take him out of the mix and we’re pretty evenly matched on records since him.
Now that brings up Carolina, and yes, spurrier. Still think he’s a great coach (I hate saying that) but this time I don’t think it’s as focused. He still likes beating us but it just doesn’t feel the same as when he was at florida. It’s not HIS school so we play on talent, which I believe overall ours is better. He still plays to win, which I don’t believe Richt does as well, but we win on talent.
So, I see 11-1 but I have no prediction on who we lose to, just that we will lose one somewhere. Coach always fins a way.
old dog
August 30th, 2012
8:31 am
O-line steps up….we win. They don’t, we lose to the better teams. We’re about set everywhere else x-cept the o-line. Hopefully all the doubters inspire them.
damngoodawg
August 30th, 2012
9:00 am
Dear Huh, you don’t know what you’re talking about…respectively….
Smarticus
August 30th, 2012
9:21 am
Here are the biggest two reasons that the Dawgs will not meet expectations:
1. Mark Richt
2. Mike Bobo